Study of Enrollment in Broward County Public Schools€¦ · Agenda and Goals STUDY OF ENROLLMENT IN BROWARD COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 2. ... Duval 662 Orange 4,277 Liberty-104 Lee 1,196

Study of Enrollment in Broward County Public Schools:

A Demographic Analysis and Survey of Parents and Principals to Identify Drivers of Declining Enrollment

April 16, 2019

Presented by:Leslie M. Brown, Chief Portfolio Services OfficerJill Young, Director, Task Assigned, Demographics & Student AssignmentsAngel Gomez, Intern Director, Demographics & Student AssignmentsJoseph Beck, Demographer, Demographics & Student Assignments

1) National Enrollment Trends

2) Florida Enrollment

3) Broward County Population and

Enrollment

4) Parent Survey

5) Principal Study Group

6) Solutions

Agenda and Goals

2STUDY OF ENROLLMENT IN BROWARD COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS

National Trends and “Big 7” Districts


US PreK-12th Grade EnrollmentProjected to Increase from

50.4m to 52.1m (+3%)from 2015 - 2027.

Large, urbandistricts showing enrollment

declines nationwide.

#2 Los Angeles County, CA:Enrollment loss of 200,000students from 2005/06 to 2018/19,including 100,000 to charter schools.Enrollment projected to decline more than 161,000 over next decade,despite increasing population.

#3 Cook County (Chicago), IL:Recorded its largest sinlge-year drop in enrollment of over 10,000this year; may lose rank as #3US district if trend continues

#7 Harris County (Houston), TX:Has lost 3% of its enrollment over the past 2 years due to combined impact of charter schools and Hurricane Harvey.

#4 Miami-DadeCounty, FLDecdlined by 4,384

#6 BrowardCounty, FLDeclined by 978

#1 New York, New York2014/15 to 2017/18:District schools lost 2.1%;Charters increased 20.4%

#5 Clark County (Las Vegas), NVAfter decades of continuousgrowth, enrollment droppedfrom 2017/18 to 2018/19 by 1,733 (0.5%)

Florida Statewide Enrollment Change by County, 2017/18 to 2018/19


Enrollment trends vary between districts.

From 2017/18 to 2018/19 statewide enrollment increased by 15,107, while 40 individual districts grew and 26 decreased, and 1 remained the same.

Polk1,537

Collier604

Marion-178

Lake773

Levy-68

Bay53

Osceola2,579

Taylor-63

Palm Beach726

Volusia272

Hendry-69

Miami-Dade-4,384

Walton346

Clay743

Leon-290

Dixie41

Broward-978

Gulf-21

Glades81

Duval662

Orange4,277

Liberty-104

Lee1,196

Alachua81

Pasco1,377

Jackson-176

Highlands-81

Putnam-152

Citrus-72

Monroe79

Baker16

Martin-347

Okaloosa173

Santa Rosa484

Hardee-126

Madison-168

Hillsborough3,185

DeSoto88

Manatee358

Wakulla-131

Flagler-46

Calhoun-57

Suwannee-159

Holmes0

St. Lucie570

Charlotte108

Brevard210

Columbia-38

Nassau246

Sumter192

Jefferson43

Okeechobee74

Franklin10

Escambia-318

St. Johns1,719

Sarasota218

Lafayette12

Gadsden-80 Hamilton

-40

Washington93

Hernando362

Union28

Gilchrist80

Indian River69

Pinellas-837

Seminole374

Bradford-49

Bay53

Brevard210

Brevard210

Charlotte108

Monroe79

Declining Enrollment

Growing Enrollment

District and Charter School Enrollment, 2001 to 2018

5

252,212 254,888 258,884 259,130 255,799 246,516 241,783 237,040 234,601 233,598 229,314 227,517 224,955 225,349 225,554 225,740 226,424 224,631

8,680 11,384 12,455 13,561 15,136 16,100 17,122 18,698 20,602 23,274 29,489 33,279 37,608 40,052 43,282 45,365 45,093 45,919

260,892 266,272 271,339 272,691 270,935 262,616 258,905 255,738 255,203 256,872 258,803 260,796 262,563 265,401 268,836 271,105 271,517 270,550

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

District Charter Total

• For the third straight year, total Broward County public school enrollment has exceeded 270,000 students.

• Enrollment in BCPS District schools, however, is the lowest is has been in the entire span of 2001 to 2018.

• Charter school enrollment has increased in this time from 3.3% to 17.0% of total enrollment.

STUDY OF ENROLLMENT IN BROWARD COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS

Broward Births 2007 -2017

6

• Lowest kindergarten cohort corresponds with lowest number of births five years prior at trough of Great Recession


Change in Number of Residential Dwelling Units, 2010 to 2015 and 2015 to 2025

7

YearTotal Dwelling

Units Increase2010 844,5292015 885,943 41,4142020 941,294 55,3512025 979,460 38,1662030 1,014,895 35,4352035 1,044,979 30,0842040 1,069,750 24,771

The total number of residential dwelling units in Broward County is projected to increase by an average of 37,537 units every five years through 2040.

Data Source: The Broward County and Municipal Population Forecast and Allocation Model (PFAM) 2017


Broward County Population Composition 1990 - 2017

8

Population

Age Cohort 2017 2010 2000 1990

0‐17 21.2% 22.4% 23.6% 20.6%

18‐44 34.8% 35.6% 38.6% 40.2%

45‐64 27.7% 27.7% 21.7% 18.6%

65+ 16.3% 14.3% 16.1% 20.7%

Data Source: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) Florida Estimates


• Since 2000, 0-17 and 18-44 age groups decreased in percentage of total population, while 45-64 and 65+ increased.

Population Change vs Enrollment Change by Municipality, 2010 - 2018

9

In the map at left, growth in population by municipality of the past 8 years is shown. At right is the change in total student enrollment. Noteworthy is the declining enrollment from Miramar and Pembroke Pines, cities which have experienced overall population growth during this period.


10

Percentage of Students Attending Charter Schools per Home School Boundary, 2018/19

• Charter school impact is most significant at the elementary and middle school levels and in the southern and north-central areas of the county, with schools in SW Broward, highest at Glades Middle with over 49% of boundary students attending charter schools.


11

Demographics of Survey Recipients


36.45%

34.96%

21.89%

6.70%

Race/Ethnicity

Black

Hispanic

White

Other

32.7%

67.3%

FRL Eligibility

NonFRL

FRL

83.0%

17.0%

ELL Status

Non ELLELL

12%

23%

9%15%

6%

35%

Broward Area

NE

NW

CE

CW

SE

SW

• Survey sent to parents of 41,267 students who have left BCPS since December 2016

• 5,181 (12.6%) responded to the survey by email or text message link

Why are Parents Leaving Broward County?

12

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%37.4%

33.5%

27.2%23.3% 22.7%

14.6% 14.3% 13.6%

4.5%2.8%

PARENTS' REASONS FOR MOVING OUT OF COUNTY AND/OR STATE


Why Are They Leaving Broward County Public Schools?


0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

What qualities were important in choosing a new school?


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Common Concerns: BCPS Principals vs What Parents Find Important

15

Common Principal Concerns• The perception of safety driving student choice

• School letter grade high in over-enrolled schools and low

in under-enrolled schools

• Principal leadership is better at over-enrolled schools

• The “best teachers” leave to teach at “nicer” schools

• “Newer and shinier” schools attract more students

• Schools with low enrollment have budgetary needs

compared to those with high enrollment that are able to

offer programs and technology addressing the

academic interests of the students

• Difficult to promote under-enrolled schools

• Student mobility is higher in lower performing schools

than higher performing schools


Common Parent Concerns• Safer environment/better discipline

• High student expectation/individual

attention

• Better academics/letter grade

• Stronger student support services

• Stronger school leadership

• Better school-home communication

• Condition of school & learning technology

• Problems with administration or school staff

• Before and after school activities/sports/services

• Siblings able to attend the same school

• School location convenience

• Religious instruction

• School start/end time

• Transportation availability

Top 5 Parent C

oncerns

Permanent Capacity Utilization by Level, 2018/19

16

• Largest number of under-enrolled schools at elementary and middle levels• 30 total schools enrolled below 70% capacity• 7 schools below 55% capacity


Enrollment in School Choice Programs and Charter Schools

17

40,96938,910 38,109 39,483

41,78444,165 45,624

48,120 48,731

21,217

29,48933,279

37,60840,052

43,28245,365 45,093 45,919

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

BCPS School Choice and Charter Enrollment, 2010/11 ‐ 2018/19

Choice

Charter

*School Choice window extended through summer beginning in 2013


Capacity and Empty Seats by School Grade

18

68,421 53,406

107,866

5,611 608 9,046 0

50,000

100,000

150,000

A B C D F I

Seats

School Grade

Total Capacity by School Grade

27.9%21.8%

44.0%

2.3% 0.2% 3.7%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

A B C D F I

% of T

otal Seats

School Grade

% of Total Capacity per School Grade

(3,804)

4,303

18,188

1,247 245 1,364

(10,000)

0

10,000

20,000

A B C D F I

eats Available by

Grade

School Grade

Total Empty Seats by School Grade

‐17.7%

20.0%

84.4%

5.8% 1.1% 6.3%

‐50%

0%

50%

100%

A B C D F I

of Toa

l Available Seats

School Grade

21,543 net empty seats 84.4% in C schools

‐5.6%

8.1%16.9% 22.2%

40.3%

15.1%

‐20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

A B C D F I

of Sea

ts Available by

Grade

School Grade

The lower the grade the higher the % seats available

0

20

40

60

80

100

A B C D F I

Total Schools by School Grade, 2015‐2018

2018

2017

2016

2015

More than 90% of net empty seats Districtwide are in C, D, and F schools.


Solutions

19

1. School Reconfiguration

2. Capacity Alignment with SMART Program

3. Align Principal and Parent Expectations

4. Enhance School Performance

5. Improve Individual Attention and Safety


THE SCHOOL BOARD OF BROWARD COUNTY, FLORIDA

Heather P. Brinkworth, Chair Donna P. Korn, Vice Chair

Lori AlhadeffRobin Bartleman

Patricia Good Laurie Rich Levinson

Ann Murray Dr. Rosalind Osgood

Nora Rupert

Robert W. Runcie, Superintendent of Schools The School Board of Broward County, Florida, prohibits any policy or procedure which results in discrimination on the basis of age, color,disability, gender identity, gender expression, genetic information, marital status, national origin, race, religion, sex or sexual orientation.The School Board also provides equal access to the Boy Scouts and other designated youth groups. Individuals who wish to file adiscrimination and/or harassment complaint may call the Director, Equal Educational Opportunities/ADA Compliance Department &District’s Equity Coordinator/Title IX at 754-321-2150 or Teletype Machine (TTY) 754-321-2158.

Individuals with disabilities requesting accommodations under the Americans with Disabilities Act Amendments Act of 2008, (ADAAA)may call Equal Educational Opportunities/ADA Compliance Department at 754-321-2150 or Teletype Machine (TTY) 754-321-2158.


1

Study of Enrollment in Broward County Public SchoolsApril 16, 2019

Appendix

Enrollment Study Timeline

Phase 1: Pre-Planning

Phase 2:Planning

Phase 3: Data Gathering

Phase 4: Analysis

Phase 5: Compilation

Phase 6: Presentation

10/27/18 – 11/26/18: Meetings with project sponsors and directors

12/7/18 – 1/7/19: Identify research questions, external evaluator, principal study group; develop survey instrument and methodology

11/27/18 – 1/25/19: Demographic research, conduct principal study group, administer survey

1/28/19 – 2/15/19: Analysis of demographic, principal and survey data

2/18/19 – 3/8/19: Describe patterns, form conclusions and recommendations, compile presentation

3/11/19 – 4/16/19: Submit completed work for review; present to cabinet and School Board

ASTUDY OF ENROLLMENT IN BROWARD COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS APPENDICES

Broward County Population Change, 2010 - 2018

B

CITY 2010 2018 Change RankCOCONUT CREEK 52,909 58,344 5,435 10COOPER CITY 28,547 33,906 5,359 11CORAL SPRINGS 121,096 128,757 7,661 9DANIA BEACH 29,639 31,755 2,116 20DAVIE 91,992 103,171 11,179 4DEERFIELD BEACH 75,018 78,573 3,555 19FORT LAUDERDALE 165,521 182,827 17,306 1HALLANDALE BEACH 37,113 39,054 1,941 21HILLSBORO BEACH 1,875 1,918 43 29HOLLYWOOD 140,768 149,028 8,260 7LAUDERDALE LAKES 32,593 36,475 3,882 17LAUDERDALE‐BY‐THE‐SEA 6,056 6,199 143 28LAUDERHILL 66,887 71,751 4,864 13LAZY LAKE 24 26 2 31LIGHTHOUSE POINT 10,344 10,560 216 27MARGATE 53,284 58,329 5,045 12MIRAMAR 122,041 137,107 15,066 2NORTH LAUDERDALE 41,023 44,841 3,818 18OAKLAND PARK 41,363 45,276 3,913 16PARKLAND 23,962 32,742 8,780 6PEMBROKE PARK 6,102 6,384 282 26PEMBROKE PINES 154,019 165,352 11,333 3PLANTATION 84,955 89,595 4,640 14POMPANO BEACH 99,845 110,371 10,526 5SEA RANCH LAKES 670 695 25 30SOUTHWEST RANCHES 7,345 7,706 361 25SUNRISE 84,439 92,663 8,224 8TAMARAC 60,427 64,663 4,236 15UNINCORPORATED 17,088 15,120 ‐1,968 32WEST PARK 14,156 14,985 829 24WESTON 65,333 66,972 1,639 22WILTON MANORS 11,632 12,831 1,199 23

1,748,066 1,897,976 149,910

• Increase in total population 149,910

• Largest growth in Fort Lauderdale, Miramar, Pembroke Pines, Davie, Pompano Beach, Parkland

Data Source: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) Florida Estimates

STUDY OF ENROLLMENT IN BROWARD COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS APPENDICES

Enrollment Change by Municipality, 2010 to 2018 and 2017 to 2018

C

• Residing student enrollment change over the past 8 years and past year

• Some cities which had an overall gain since 2010 have declined since last year-Deerfield Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood, Pompano Beach


D

Enrollment Change at Elementary, Middle and High Schools, 2017/18 to 2018/19

• Largest number of schools with enrollment decrease at the elementary level and fewest in middle schools

• No discernible geographic pattern to enrollment change


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ENROLLMENT CHANGE 2017/18 TO 2018/19ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS

±

Legend

0 1 2 3 4 5

Miles

www.browardschools.comDemographics & Student AssignmentsUpdated 4/3/2019

Elementary School BoundaryGrades K-3 within this area attendSunland Park AcademyGrades K-3 within this area attendHarbordale Elementary

Enrollment Change2.1% - 6.0%

6.1% - 10.0%

10.1% - 20.0%

-17.3% - -10.0%

-9.9% - -6.1%

-6.0% - -2.1%

-2.0% - 2.0%

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±www.browardschools.com

0 1 2 3 4 5

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Updated 4/3/2019 Demographics & Student Assignments

Legend

Middle School Boundary

ENROLLMENT CHANGE 2017/18 TO 2018/19MIDDLE SCHOOLS

Enrollment Change

2.1% - 6.0%

6.1% - 10.0%

10.1% - 20.0%

-17.3% - -10.0%

-9.9% - -6.1%

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±www.browardschools.comDemographics & Student AssignmentsUpdated 4/3/2019

0 1 2 3 4 5

Miles

Legend

High School Boundary

ENROLLMENT CHANGE 2017/18 TO 2018/19HIGH SCHOOLS

Enrollment Change

2.1% - 6.0%

6.1% - 10.0%

10.1% - 20.0%

-17.3% - -10.0%

-9.9% - -6.1%

-6.0% - -2.1%

-2.0% - 2.0%

E

Benchmark Enrollment Change by Grade Level, 2016/17 – 2018/19

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 3-Year ChangePreK 5,731 5,939 6,158 427K 14,551 14,459 14,456 (95)1 15,599 15,629 15,340 (259)2 16,160 15,856 15,667 (493)3 17,771 17,069 16,533 (1,238)4 16,263 16,744 16,012 (251)5 16,920 16,617 16,856 (64)6 15,796 16,413 16,205 4097 15,550 16,109 16,507 9578 15,801 15,813 16,092 2919 17,686 17,753 17,840 15410 18,274 17,995 17,735 (539)11 17,712 17,682 17,426 (286)12 16,732 17,256 17,357 625Total 220,546 221,334 220,184

Enrollment by Grade at District Schools, not Including Centers,

2016/17 - 2018/19

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

PreK K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Prek ‐ 12th Grade Enrollment, 2016/17 ‐ 2018/19

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

• Kindergarten consistently low, primary grades decreasing• High schools cohorts consistently the largest


F

Where Are They Now?

12.0%

16.2%

34.2%

26.1%

11.5%

Outside the State of Florida

Other Florida County

Broward Charter School

Broward Private School

Home School

Texas45

Utah6

Montana0

California17

Nevada2

Arizona7

Idaho0

Oregon2

Iowa2

Colorado16 Kansas

1

Wyoming0

New Mexico0

Illinois8

Ohio11

Nebraska1

Minnesota0

Missouri3

Georgia43

Oklahoma3

Alabama0

South Dakota0

Washington8

Arkansas1

North Dakota0

Wisconsin1

Virginia22

Tennessee11

Pennsylvania17

Florida3958

Maine1

New York25

Indiana0

Louisiana7

Michigan2

Kentucky7

Mississippi1

North Carolina39

South Carolina22

West Virginia1

Vermont0

Maryland6

New Jersey12

New Hampshire4

Massachusetts15

Delaware0

Students0

1 - 5

6 - 15

16 - 25

26 - 45

46 - 3,958

Alac hu a

BakerBay

Bradfo rd

Brevard

Calhou n

Char lo t te

Ci tru s

Clay

Coll ie r

Colu mbi a

DeSot o

Dix i e

Duval

Esca mbia

Fl ag ler

Frankl in

Gad sden

Gilc hr i st

Glades

Gul f

Ham ilt on

Hardee

Hend ry

Hernando

High la nds

Hil lsbo ro ugh

Holm es

Ind ian Rive r

Jackso n

Jef ferso n

La fayet te

La ke

Le e

Le on

Le vy

Li berty

Madi son

Manat ee

Mar i on

Mo nroe

Nassau

Okaloo sa

Okeechob ee

Orange

OsceolaPasc o

Pi ne l la s

Polk

Pu tnam

St . John s

SantaRosa

Saras ot a

Sem inoleSum ter

SuwanneeTaylor Unio n

Volus ia

Wakul l a

WaltonWashing ton

Bro ward

Mar t in

Mi ami -Da de

Pal m Beac h

St .Luc i e

10

13

11

3

15

12

2

4

1

40

87

6

3,4 59

100

143

32

Students

1 - 6

7 - 15

16 - 40

41 - 143

144 - 3,459

0


Who Is Leaving District-Managed Schools?

G

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Broward charter school Broward private school Home school

WHERE RESPONDENTS' CHILDREN CURRENTLY ATTEND SCHOOL (WITHIN BROWARD COUNTY) BY SUBGROUP

Black Latino White Other


H

School Climate and Safety

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Child has school-related stress

Child feels safeschool

Child worries aboutbullying at school

12.8%

70.3%

8.5%21.7%

24.5%

18.3%

65.5%

5.1%

73.3%

PERCEPTIONS OF SCHOOL CLIMATE AND SAFETY: NEW SCHOOL VS. PREVIOUS SCHOOL

More often A similar amount Less often


I

School Satisfaction


Options: K-8 Schools

J

K-8’s, Two Models:• Elementary Schools Expanded Grades, choice to

attend 6-8 (not assigned by boundary)- Hollywood Central Elementary

• Combined Adjacent Elementary and Middle Sites, assigned boundaries as now for elementary and middle (no boundary changes)- Bethune ES + Attucks MS; Driftwood ES + Driftwood MS; Broward Estates ES + Parkway MS


Options: Early Learning Centers

K

• Fort Lauderdale has expressed an interest in replicating in their city the work done in Hallandale Beach at the Gulfstream Early Learning Center

• Large proportion of students eligible for Free & Reduced Price Lunch (FRL), a proxy economic indicator of poverty

• High number of students on the Head Start and Early Learning Subsidized Care wait lists

• High levels of poverty and greater number of eligibility points within Head Start classrooms

• Majority of students entering kindergarten not reaching readiness benchmark on Florida Kindergarten Readiness Screener

• Opportunities for Early Childhood partnership with City of Fort Lauderdale and/or private entities to provide services in non-school sites


Documents

Study of Enrollment in Broward County Public Schools€¦ · Agenda and Goals STUDY OF ENROLLMENT IN BROWARD COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 2. ... Duval 662 Orange 4,277 Liberty-104 Lee 1,196