STUDY ON NEW URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PROJECT

STUDY ON PRIVATE-INITIATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN FY2011

STUDY ON NEW URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

PROJECT IN CIKARANG, REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

FINAL REPORT

February 2012

Prepared for:

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Prepared by:

TOSTEMS, INC.

MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD.

JAPAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING ASSOCIATION

Reproduction Prohibited

PREFACE

This report shows the result of “Study on Private-Initiative Infrastructure Projects in Developing

Countries in FY2011” contract received by the group composed of TOSTEMS, INC., MITSUBISHI

HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD. and JAPAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING ASSOCIATION.

This study “The Study on New Urban Transportation System Project in Cikarang” was carried out to

install the APM system in the Cikarang district which is located in about 30 km east of Jakarta. It

was also carried out in order to assess to feasibility of the project to install the Japanese APM system

with project cost of 879 million US$ (70 billion Yen) for the purpose of the reduction of road

congestion associated with the development of industrial parks and complex city, the improvement

of urban functions and the invitation of companies.

We, all members of the study team, hope this study will contribute for putting the plan into practice,

and will appreciate if the result will become good help for the relevant government officials to

understand and to drive forward the project.

February 2012

TOSTEMS, INC.

MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD.

JAPAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING ASSOCIATION

Location Map

Source: Study Team

Bekasi regency

Indonesia

Project Site

MM2100

Industrial Town

Bekasi Fajar

Industrial Estate Lippo Cikarang

Industrial Estate

Java Main Line

Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road

Deltamas City

Legend

：Proposed Route

：Future Extension

：Station

Jababeka

Industrial Park

EJIP

0 1 2 km

N

Bekasi Regency

On-Site Photos

1. MM2100 Industrial Town (entrance)

2. Jababeka Industrial Park (entrance)

3. Hospital

(in Lippo Cikarang Industrial Estate)

4. Green belt of route planned site

(in Jababeka Industrial Park)

5. Depot planned site (undeveloped area in

Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate)

6. Current condition of road congestion

(around Bekasi complex city)

On-Site Photos

7. Commuter bus to industrial estate

8. Commuters (in Jababeka Industrial Park)

9. Motorbikes parked at opening space

(in MM2100 Industrial Town)

10. Angkot (mikrolet): share-ride bus

11. Java Main Line

12. Cikarang Station (Java Main Line)

On-Site Photos

13. Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road

14. Overpass across the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll

Road

15. Meeting with governor of Bekasi prefecture

16. Meeting with JICA Indonesia office

Source: Study Team

List of Abbreviations

Abbreviation Full Name

ADB Asian Development Bank

AFC Automatic Fare Collection

AMDAL Analisis Mengenai Dampak Lingkungan (Indonesian)

APM Automated People Mover

ATO Automatic Train Operation

ATP Automatic Train Protection

ATS Automatic Train Supervision

B/C Buyer’s Credit

B/C Ratio Benefit and Cost Ratio

B/L Bank Loan

BAPPEDA Badan Perencana Pembangunan Daerah (Indonesian)

BAPEDAL Badan Pengendalian Dampak Lingkungan (Indonesian)

BAPPENAS Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (Indonesian)

BPS Badan Pusat Statistik (Indonesian)

BRT Bus Rapid Transit

CBTC Communication Based Train Control

CCF Central Control Facility

CCTV Closed-circuit Television

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

CIF Cost, Insurance and Freight

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

E&M

Electrical and Mechanical

E/S Engineering Service

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return

EIS Environment Information System

EMP Environmental Management Program

ENPV Economic Net Present Value

EOI Expression of Interest

EPA Economic Partnership Agreement

EPC Engineering Procurement Construction

FIRR Financial Internal Rate of Return

FOCC Financial Opportunity Cost of Capital

FS Feasibility Study

GDP Gross Domestic Product

IDB Islamic Development Bank

IDR Indonesia Rupiah

IIGF Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund

IMF International Monetary Fund

IT Information Technology

JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation


JETRO Japan External Trade Organization

JI Joint Implementation

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency

JPY Japanese Yen

LRT Light Rail Transit

METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

MLIT Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

MOF Metering Out Fit

MPA Metropolitan Priority Area for Investment and Industry

NPV Net Present Value

O&M Operation and Maintenance

OCC Operations Control Center

OD Origin-Destination

ODA Official Development Assistance

OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

OJT On-the-job Training

OOF Other Official Finance

PC Prefabricated Concrete

PDS Power Delivery System

PIL Preliminary Environmental Information Report

PLN Perusahaan Listrik Negara

PM Project Manager

PMU Project Management Unit

PP Power Plant

PPHPD Passengers per hour per direction

PPP Public Private Partnership

P3CU Public Private Partnership Central Unit

RC Reinforced Concrete

RDTR Rencana Detail Tata Ruang (Indonesian)

S/W Scope of Work

SCF Standard Conversion Factor

SDR Social Discount Rate

SITRAMP The Study on Integrated Transportation Master Plan for

JABODETABEK

SPC Special Purpose Company

SS Substation

STEP Special Terms for Economic Partnership

TOR Terms of Reference

TTC Travel Time Cost

UPS Uninterruptible Power Supply

USD United States Dollar


VAT Value Added Tax

VFM Value For Money

VGF Viability Gap Fund

VOC Vehicle Operating Cost

WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Chapter 1 Overview of the Host Country and Sector

1.1 Economic/Financial Circumstances of the Host Country .....................................................1-1

1.1.1 Social Circumstances .....................................................................................................1-1

1.1.2 Economic Circumstances...............................................................................................1-1

1.1.3 Financial Circumstances ................................................................................................1-3

1.2 Overview of Project Sector in the Host Country ..................................................................1-4

1.2.1 Public Transportation in the Project Area......................................................................1-4

1.2.2 Outline of Converting National Railway to Commuter Line .........................................1-5

1.2.3 Road Plans .....................................................................................................................1-5

1.3 Present Conditions of Project Area .......................................................................................1-7

1.3.1 Administrative Divisions around the Project Area ........................................................1-7

1.3.2 Night-time Population around the Project Area.............................................................1-8

Chapter 2 Study Methodology

2.1 Study Content .......................................................................................................................2-1

2.1.1 Study Background .........................................................................................................2-1

2.1.2 Study Objective .............................................................................................................2-1

2.1.3 Study Outline .................................................................................................................2-1

2.2 Study Methodology and Organization ..................................................................................2-3

2.2.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................2-3

2.2.2 Study Methodology .......................................................................................................2-3

2.2.3 Study Organization ........................................................................................................2-4

2.3 Study Schedule .....................................................................................................................2-5

2.3.1 Overall Study Schedule .................................................................................................2-5

2.3.2 Study Periods .................................................................................................................2-6

Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project

3.1 Background, Necessity, Etc. for Project ...............................................................................3-1

3.1.1 Background of Project and Positioning .........................................................................3-1

3.1.2 Necessity for APM System Introduction .......................................................................3-2

3.2 Various Examinations Required for Determination of Project Details, Etc..........................3-4

3.2.1 Route Plan......................................................................................................................3-4

3.2.2 Demand Forecast .........................................................................................................3-11

3.2.3 System Selection..........................................................................................................3-24

3.3 Project Plan Overview ........................................................................................................3-29

3.3.1 Basic Policy about Determination of Project Contents ................................................3-29

3.3.2 Concept Design............................................................................................................3-30

Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts

4.1 Analysis on Present Environmental and Social Status ..........................................................4-1

4.1.1 Business Characteristics ................................................................................................4-1

4.1.2 Present Status of the Project Area..................................................................................4-1

4.1.3 Natural Environment .....................................................................................................4-1

4.1.4 Social Environment .......................................................................................................4-2

4.1.5 Future Forecast (case without implementation of this project)......................................4-2

4.2 Environmental Improvement Effect by the Project ..............................................................4-4

4.2.1 Method of Review .........................................................................................................4-4

4.2.2 Traffic Volume Shifted from Vehicles to the APM System ..........................................4-4

4.2.3 CO2 Reduction ...............................................................................................................4-4

4.2.4 Possibility to Apply CDM .............................................................................................4-5

4.3 Environmental Impact by the Project Implementation .........................................................4-7

4.3.1 Identification of Environmental and Social Impact .......................................................4-7

4.3.2 Land Acquisition and Involuntary Resettlement .........................................................4-16

4.3.3 Comparison with Alternative Route ............................................................................4-18

4.3.4 Local Information related to the Environment.............................................................4-19

4.4 Summary of Environmental/Social Legislation in the host country ...................................4-20

4.4.1 Main Legislation relating to Environmental/Social Considerations ............................4-20

4.4.2 Procedures for Land Acquisition and Resettlement.....................................................4-21

4.4.3 Environmental Impact Assessment System .................................................................4-22

4.5 Matters Conducted by Host Country for Project Realization .............................................4-24

Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation

5.1 Estimation of Project Cost ....................................................................................................5-1

5.1.1 Overview of Project Cost...............................................................................................5-1

5.1.2 Construction Costs .........................................................................................................5-2

5.1.3 Construction Cost Details ..............................................................................................5-3

5.1.4 Operation and Maintenance Cost ...................................................................................5-5

5.2 Preliminary Economic and Financial Analyses ....................................................................5-7

5.2.1 Preliminary Economic Analysis ....................................................................................5-7

5.2.2 Preliminary Financial Analysis ....................................................................................5-12

Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule

6.1 Overview...............................................................................................................................6-1

6.2 Implementation Schedule Details .........................................................................................6-3

6.2.1 Preparation Stage ...........................................................................................................6-3

6.2.2 Construction Stage .........................................................................................................6-4

6.2.3 Operation Commencement Preparation Stage ...............................................................6-5

6.2.4 Operation Commencement Stage ..................................................................................6-5

Chapter 7 Implementing Organization

7.1 Project Scheme for Project Implementation .........................................................................7-1

7.2 Project Competency of Implementation Organization ..........................................................7-2

7.3 Roles and Risk Assignment of Government and Private sector............................................7-3

Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Companies

8.1 Assumed Participation Form of Companies of Our Country (Equity participation, materials

and equipment supply, management of institutions, etc.) .....................................................8-1

8.2 Advantages of Companies of Our Country for Project Implementation Concerned

(Technological side, the financial side) ................................................................................8-2

8.2.1 Introductory Performances of APM System ..................................................................8-2

8.2.2 Advantages of Japanese Companies ..............................................................................8-3

8.3 Necessary Measures in order to Promote Japanese Companies............................................8-4

Chapter 9 Financial Outlook

9.1 Examination of Financial Source and Implementation Scheme ...........................................9-1

9.1.1 Implementation Scheme ................................................................................................9-1

9.1.2 Typical PPP Financing Structure ...................................................................................9-3

9.1.3 Scheme-A: Affermage ...................................................................................................9-3

9.1.4 Scheme-C: Concession ..................................................................................................9-6

9.1.5 Scheme-B: Concessions (with minimum private share of investment cost) ..................9-7

9.2 Public and Private Financing ................................................................................................9-9

9.2.1 Public Financing in Japan ..............................................................................................9-9

9.2.2 Other Financial Sources .................................................................................................9-9

9.2.3 General Financing Sources ..........................................................................................9-10

9.3 Cashflow Analyses .............................................................................................................9-11

9.3.1 Preliminary Financial Analysis for PPP Schemes .......................................................9-11

Chapter 10 Action Plan and Issues

10.1 Approaches towards Realization of the Project ................................................................10-1

10.1.1 The Project Explanation and Cooperation Request to Concerned Organizations ......10-1

10.1.2 Study Group Considerations ......................................................................................10-1

10.2 Approaches of Indonesian Government and Concerned

Organizations towards Realization of the Project .............................................................10-2

10.2.1 National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS) ..........................................10-2

10.2.2 Directorate General of Railways, Ministry of Transportation ...................................10-2

10.2.3 Bekasi Regency .........................................................................................................10-2

10.3 Existence of Legal, Financial Constraints, Etc. of Indonesia ............................................10-3

10.4 Necessity of Additional Detail Analysis ...........................................................................10-4

List of Figures

Figure 1-1 Real GDP Growth Rate .............................................................................................1-1

Figure 1-2 Public Transportations in the Project Area ...............................................................1-4

Figure 1-3 Road Plans around Study Area .................................................................................1-6

Figure 1-4 Administrative Divisions of Bekasi Regency ...........................................................1-7

Figure 2-1 Study Team ...............................................................................................................2-4

Figure 2-2 Overall Study Schedule .............................................................................................2-5

Figure 3-1 Proposed Routes ........................................................................................................3-6

Figure 3-2 Proposed Route 1 ......................................................................................................3-9

Figure 3-3 Target Area for Demand Forecast ...........................................................................3-11

Figure 3-4 Java Main Line ........................................................................................................3-12

Figure 3-5 Survey Route of Travel Speed Survey ....................................................................3-15

Figure 3-6 Traffic Fluctuation by Time for Weekday ..............................................................3-16

Figure 3-7 Regional and Transport Network Structure Concerning Target Area .....................3-17

Figure 3-8 General Flowchart for Demand Forecast ................................................................3-18

Figure 3-9 Image of Trip Diversion ..........................................................................................3-19

Figure 3-10 Relationship between Zone and Influential Corridor of Target System ................3-23

Figure 3-11 Proposal Concept ..................................................................................................3-24

Figure 3-12 Schedule Speed and Transport Capacity ...............................................................3-26

Figure 3-13 Structure Gauge and Vehicle Gauge .....................................................................3-32

Figure 3-14 Horizontal Alignment............................................................................................3-33

Figure 3-15 Vertical Alignment ................................................................................................3-34

Figure 3-16 Cross Section of Supports Constructed on Greenbelt ...........................................3-35

Figure 3-17 Station Location ....................................................................................................3-39

Figure 3-18 Track Layout Sketch .............................................................................................3-41

Figure 3-19 Connection with Cikarang Station of Java Main Line(Cross-Section View) ........3-42

Figure 3-20 Connection with Cikarang Station of Java Main Line(Plan View) .......................3-42

Figure 3-21 Typical Station (Plan View) ..................................................................................3-43

Figure 3-22 Typical Station (Side View) ..................................................................................3-43

Figure 3-23 Typical Station (Cross-Section View)...................................................................3-43

Figure 3-24 Position of Substation and Power Plants in the Area around APM System ..........3-45

Figure 3-25 Power System Diagram of Cikarang APM System...............................................3-46

Figure 3-26 Vehicle Overview..................................................................................................3-52

Figure 3-27 Depot Location ......................................................................................................3-53

Figure 3-28 Depot Layout.........................................................................................................3-54

Figure 3-29 Vehicle Stabling Plan ............................................................................................3-55

Figure 3-30 Proposed Organization ..........................................................................................3-57

Figure 4-1 Locations Requiring Land Acquisition ...................................................................4-17

Figure 4-2 Land Acquisition and Resettlement Procedures ......................................................4-22

Figure 4-3 EIA Procedures .......................................................................................................4-23

Figure 7-1 Project Scheme (Scheme-A: Affermage) ..................................................................7-1

Figure 8-1 General Configuration of PPP Project ......................................................................8-1

Figure 9-1 Fund Procurement in PPP Schemes ..........................................................................9-1

Figure 9-2 Typical PPP Financing Structure ..............................................................................9-3

Figure 9-3 Scheme-A : Affermage .............................................................................................9-4

Figure 9-4 Scheme-C: Concession..............................................................................................9-6

Figure 9-5 Scheme- B: Concessions (with minimum private share of investment cost) ............9-7

List of Tables

Table 1-1 Indonesia Basic Information.......................................................................................1-1

Table 1-2 Basic Economic Indicators .........................................................................................1-2

Table 1-3 Supply Limits and Supply Conditions ........................................................................1-3

Table 1-4 Bekasi Regency Population (2005~2009) ..................................................................1-8

Table 2-1 Domestic Work Periods ..............................................................................................2-6

Table 2-2 Field Survey Periods ..................................................................................................2-6

Table 2-3 Work Activity .............................................................................................................2-7

Table 3-1 Number of Companies in the Industrial Park of the Target Region ...........................3-3

Table 3-2 Background of the Proposal Related to the Examination of the Route ......................3-4

Table 3-3 Proposed Route Overview ..........................................................................................3-7

Table 3-4 Assumption on Development Area Size in Target Area...........................................3-13

Table 3-5 Distribution of Average Commuting Time in Metropolitan Area ............................3-13

Table 3-6 Modal Characteristics of Commuters .......................................................................3-14

Table 3-7 Result of Travel Speed Survey in Cikarang .............................................................3-14

Table 3-8 Establishment of Zoning...........................................................................................3-18

Table 3-9 Population by Zone ..................................................................................................3-20

Table 3-10 Number of Employees by Zone ..............................................................................3-20

Table 3-11 Unit trip by Transport Mode per Inhabitant ...........................................................3-21

Table 3-12 Present Trip Distribution Generated in Cikarang District ......................................3-21

Table 3-13 Assumption of Trip Diversion Rate by Trip Origin & Destination ........................3-22

Table 3-14 Daily Ridership.......................................................................................................3-22

Table 3-15 Maximum Sectional Volume in Peak Hour ............................................................3-23

Table 3-16 Main Medium Capacity Transport System Characteristics ....................................3-25

Table 3-17 Evaluation of System Suitability for Proposed Route ............................................3-28

Table 3-18 Demand Forecast Results .......................................................................................3-30

Table 3-19 Transport Capacity per Train ..................................................................................3-30

Table 3-20 Transport Capacity (PPHPD) .................................................................................3-30

Table 3-21 Headway and Required number of vehicles ...........................................................3-31

Table 3-22 Main Construction Standards for the APM System................................................3-32

Table 3-23 Station Plan Basic Policy........................................................................................3-37

Table 3-24 Platform Type Comparison ....................................................................................3-38

Table 3-25 Station Structures and Facilities .............................................................................3-38

Table 3-26 Station Location .....................................................................................................3-40

Table 3-27 Bill of Quantity .......................................................................................................3-44

Table 3-28 Surrounding Substation Capacity ...........................................................................3-45

Table 3-29 Key Parameters.......................................................................................................3-51

Table 3-30 Typical Main Tool and Equipment .........................................................................3-56

Table 3-31 Required Number of Staff ......................................................................................3-57

Table 4-1 Population and Population Density by District ..........................................................4-2

Table 4-2 Converted and Reduced Volume of Bus traffic ..........................................................4-4

Table 4-3 CO2 Reduction Volume of the Bus.............................................................................4-5

Table 4-4 CO2 Reduction Volume of the AGT system ..............................................................4-5

Table 4-5 Check List of JICA Guideline for Environmental Study............................................4-8

Table 4-6 Comparison of Alternative Route .............................................................................4-18

Table 4-7 Legislation for Environmental Pollution Control relating to this Project .................4-20

Table 4-8 Comparison between JETRO Guidelines for Environmental and Social

Considerations and environmental laws in Indonesia ..............................................4-21

Table 4-9 Matters to be undertaken by Government of Indonesia ............................................4-24

Table 5-1 Construction Cost .......................................................................................................5-2

Table 5-2 Salaries of each employee ..........................................................................................5-5

Table 5-3 Basic Unit of Each Expense Item ...............................................................................5-5

Table 5-4 Annual Operation and Maintenance Cost ...................................................................5-6

Table 5-5 Life Cycle of Facilities ...............................................................................................5-7

Table 5-6 Construction Costs of "With Project" (in economic price) .........................................5-8

Table 5-7 Estimation of VOC .....................................................................................................5-9

Table 5-8 Results of Economic Evaluation Indexes ...................................................................5-9

Table 5-9 Results of Sensitivity Analysis .................................................................................5-10

Table 5-10 Economic Cashflow................................................................................................5-11

Table 5-11 Assumption of Passenger Fare ...............................................................................5-12

Table 5-12 Investment Cost (in financial price) .......................................................................5-13

Table 5-13 Annual Demand, Revenue and Expenditure ...........................................................5-13

Table 5-14 Results of Financial Analysis .................................................................................5-14

Table 5-15 Results of Sensitivity Analysis ...............................................................................5-14

Table 5-16 Financial Cashflow .................................................................................................5-15

Table 6-1 Implementation Schedule ...........................................................................................6-2

Table 7-1 Important Matters towards Project Implementation ...................................................7-2

Table 7-2 Roles of Public and Private Sector .............................................................................7-3

Table 7-3 Types of Risks ............................................................................................................7-4

Table 8-1 Assumed Participation of Japanese Companies .........................................................8-1

Table 8-2 APM System Introduction Performances in Japan .....................................................8-2

Table 8-3 APM Vehicles Export Performance for Overseas ......................................................8-2

Table 9-1 Project Commercial Viability and Funding Sources ..................................................9-1

Table 9-2 Candidates for Implementation Scheme .....................................................................9-2

Table 9-3 Public Financing in Japan Expected to be Applied to the Project ..............................9-9

Table9-4 Financing Sources and Terms ...................................................................................9-10

Table 9-5 Schemes and Evaluation Viewpoint .........................................................................9-11

Table 9-6 Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-A) ........................................................9-12

Table 9-7 Annual Demand and Revenue (Scheme-A to C) ......................................................9-12

Table 9-8 Annual Expenditure (Scheme-A to C)......................................................................9-12

Table 9-9 Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-A) ...............................................................9-13

Table 9-10 Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-B) ......................................................9-13

Table 9-11 Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-B) .............................................................9-14

Table 9-12 Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-C) ......................................................9-14

Table 9-13 Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-C) .............................................................9-14

Table 9-14 Summary of Financial Analysis (Scheme-A to C) .................................................9-15

Table 9-15 Financial Cashflow of Scheme-A ...........................................................................9-16

Table 9-16 Financial Cashflow of Scheme-B ...........................................................................9-17

Table 9-17 Financial Cashflow of Scheme-C ...........................................................................9-18

List of Photos

Photo 3-1 Current Conditions of Proposed Route ....................................................................3-10

Photo 3-2 External Appearance of Vehicles for Each System ..................................................3-25

Photo 3-3 Switches Overview (Sample) ...................................................................................3-36

Photo 3-4 Station Facilities .......................................................................................................3-41

Photo 3-5 Power Rail (Sample) ................................................................................................3-47

Photo 3-6 Central Control Facility (Sample) ............................................................................3-48

Photo 3-7 APM Vehicle (Sample) ............................................................................................3-50

Executive Summary

i

(1) Background and Necessity of the Project

1) Background of the Project

The Cikarang district which is the region for this project is located in about 30 km east of Jakarta,

and about 570,000 people live in the area of 248 km2 as of 2009, and it is expected that population

continues to increase rapidly. The Cikarang district is divided into the partition of the Jababeka

industrial park, the MM2100 industrial town, the Lippo Cikarang industrial estate, the East Jakarta

industrial park (hereafter referred to as EJIP), Deltamas City, etc., and is developed as a large-scale

industrial park and a complex city, and development is still underway. As of October 2010, 310

Japanese companies move into these areas.

The Java Main Line runs to the north side in the area, and Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road is running in

the center of the area from east and west. Although the traffic in the area depends on the road traffic

of cars, buses, minibuses, and motorbikes, chronic traffic congestion has occurred in everywhere in

the area by the shortage of road capacity, and heavy road traffic. Especially there are few roads

which cross Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, and almost all existing roads are narrow where the

north-south area was divided.

The railway electrification and double-double tracking of Java Main Line project are to be promoted

as Japanese ODA loan project in the near future. It is considered that the economic activity of the

area concerned becomes increasingly active with increase in Cikarang station users.

This project uses the Cikarang station as a terminal, introduces APM system as feeder line traffic to

the Jababeka industrial park and MM2100 industrial town, etc., and aims at strengthening the

north-south traffic axis. Thereby, confusion dissolution of the road traffic of the area concerned,

preservation of the urban environment by relief of air pollution, improvement in the convenience of

the commuter to the industrial park concerned, etc. are expected. Furthermore, it is considered that

introduction of the APM system to the area where many Japanese companies have moved in as

mentioned above has the high benefit effect to Japanese-owned companies together with area

development and revitalization of the economy.

2) Necessity of the Project

Necessities of the project are as follows.

- Relief of road traffic congestion

- Securing convenience and safety of industrial estate commuter

- Introduction of the APM system united with future development planning

- Benefit effects to Japanese-owned companies

(2) Basic Policy for Determination of Project Contents

To determine the contents of the project, the study is conducted with following basic policies

- Proposal of the plan to minimize the land acquisition and involuntary resettlement

- Offer of high mobility services

- Proposal of system of enhanced convenience

- Proposal of the system considering economic efficiency

- Examination of appropriate PPP scheme

ii

(3) Project Overview

1) Demand Forecast

a) Pre conditions of demand forecast

Regional transport condition

As a pre condition of the project, it is assumed that “The Railway Electrification and Double-Double

Tracking of Java Main Line Project“, which was proposed in SITRAMP study 2004 by JICA, is to

be completed.

Related development projects

In target area, the comprehensive urban development projects, i.e. industrial estate and housing

estate, are currently undertaken by several developers. These development plans are considered as a

pre condition of demand forecast.

b) Results of demand forecast

Table-1 Demand Forecast Result

Objective

year

Number of daily

passengers

Maximum peak hour

transport volume

2019 49,000 passengers/d 4,900 PPHPD



Source: Study Team

2) Outline of the Project

Table-2 Outline of the Project

Installation System APM System

Route Length 12 km

Operation Plan Year 2019-2037

Year 2038-

: 2-car formation

: 4-car formation

Structure Elevated (whole line)

Number of Station 13 stations

Platform Type Cikarang St.: Dead end platform

Others: Island platform

Depot 7.2 ha

Source: Study Team

3) Project Costs Overview

The project costs of this project at 2011 are shown in Table-3.

Table-3 Project Costs

Initial Construction Cost 879 million US$

Additional Construction Cost (2024) 31 million US$

Additional Construction Cost (2037) 85 million US$

Source: Study Team

4) Preliminary Economic and Financial Analysis

a) Economic analysis

A comparative analysis of the costs and benefits both in the case of executing the project ("With

project") and not executing the project ("Without project") is carried out from the viewpoint of the

national economy. Costs of "With project" consist of investment costs (including additional

iii

investment costs) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. The quantified benefits of Vehicle

Operating Cost (VOC) savings and Transport Time Cost (TTC) savings are estimated in the analysis.

The results of preliminary economic analysis are summarized in Table-4.

Table-4 Results of Economic Analysis

(Social discount rate = 12.0%)

Economic Internal Rate

of Return (EIRR)

Benefit and Cost Ratio

(B/C Ratio)

Economic Net Present Value

(ENPV)

13.2 % 1.1 5,050 million Yen

Source: Study Team

As all the evaluation values are found to be favorable, and this project is considered to be

economically viable.

b) Financial analysis

Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) on Project (Project FIRR) from the viewpoint of efficiency

of investment is estimated as evaluation index. The Project FIRR is evaluated in comparison to the

Financial Opportunity Cost of Capital (FOCC). In the analysis, the Weighted Average Cost of

Capital (WACC) serves as a proxy for the FOCC combined with the financial sources. Table-5

shows the results of financial analysis. As a result, the Project FIRR is found to be 1.3% and is

considered financially viable compared with 1.1% of WACC.

Table-5 Results of Financial Analysis

Financial Internal Rate

of Return (FIRR)

Weighted Average Cost

of Capital (WACC)

Financial Net Present Value

(FNPV)

1.3 % 1.1 % 2,820 million Yen

Source: Study Team

5) Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts

a) Characteristics of the project

With this APM system, noise and vibration levels and exhaust gas emissions are low. This system is

an environmentally friendly public transportation system since its impact on the environment is

small, compared with that of vehicles.

In particular, the following advantages can be achieved by the introduction of this APM system.

- Improvement of convenience for visitors/commuters to the introduced area

- Savings in commuting time and a reduction in traffic delays

- Reduction of greenhouse gases with the replacement of buses, cars, motorcycles with the APM

system

- Regional economic revitalization

- Relief of road congestion and a reduction of traffic accidents

- Direct and indirect job creation

b) Identification of environmental and social impact

In items which are supposed to affect environmental and social aspects by this project, matters

requiring special consideration, requiring explanation to obtain understanding by residents and

requiring coordination with related institutions are shown as follows.

i) Involuntary resettlement

At the access to Cikarang station, the entrance to the Jababeka industrial park and at part of northern

area along the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, involuntary resettlement of existing residences is not

iv

avoidable. It is estimated that involuntary resettlement and land acquisition of approximate 30

existing residences/approximate 11,200m2 and approximate 56,000m

2 of undeveloped area north of

Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road and Bekasi Fajar industrial estate.

ii) Radio disturbance related to livelihood

The APM system is a wholly elevated line therefore Radio Disturbance caused by an elevated

structure is also considerable. It is necessary to consider some countermeasures, including instalment

of a common antenna in the harmed areas, at the detailed design stage.

iii) Impact during construction

In this project, environmental pollution such as noise/vibration occurrence by piling works and

exhaust gas from heavy equipment is considerable. It is necessary to consider mitigation measures at

the construction planning stage. In addition, restriction of existing roads will possibly cause traffic

congestion because the APM system will be installed in the space currently occupied by roads.

iv) Tree cutting and transplanting

Some sections of road in industrial estates, proposed as part of the route of the APM system, have

trees in the median dividers which are to be used as the installation space. Such trees shall be cut or

transplanted. They can be transplanted under elevated sections or other places as a mitigation

measure after construction of elevated structures. It is required to consider how to secure green areas

for the project as a whole.

(4) Implementation Schedule

Figure-1 shows the implementation schedule.

Figure-1 Implementation Schedule

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Project finding

1.Praparation Stage

(1)Selection of consultant

(2)Feasibility study / Resettlement action plan

(3)EIA study and disclosure by Govt.

(4)Award of APM by Govt.

(5)Process for loan agreement

(6)Detailed planning / Bid preparation

(7)Land acquisition, resettlement and relocation of utilities

2.Construction Stage

(1)Mobilization

(2)Detailed design

(3)Construction

(4)Running test & commissioning

3.Operation Preparation Stage

(1)Tender process for selection of management

(2)Recruitment and preparation of organization

(3)Regulation making / Education and training

4.Revenue Service Stage

Source: Study Team

v

(5) Feasibility for Implementation

1) Implementation Scheme

For the implementation of this project, there are fully public project where public funds from the

public sector and a method where the private sector participates through a Public Private Partnership

(PPP) approach. Table-6 shows candidates for implementation schemes of proposed project.

Table-6 Candidates for Implementation Scheme

Construction/Operation Division of Roles Construction O&M

Organization Scheme Public Sector Private Sector Civil works E&M/

rolling stock

Public Project Implemented by government as fully public project.

None Public funds Public funds

Public managed

organization

PPP with Government Support

A)

Construction of civil works and procurement of E&M/rolling stock

O&M

Public funds Public funds SPC

B)

Construction of civil works and part of procurement of E&M/rolling stock

Part of procurement of E&M/rolling stock and O&M

Public funds Public funds

Private funds

SPC

C) Construction of civil works

Procurement of E&M/rolling stock and O&M

Public funds Private funds SPC

Regular PPP D)

None Construction of civil works, procurement of E&M/rolling stock and O&M

Private funds Private funds SPC

Source: Study Team

2) Financial Sources

The public financing types that can be expected to be applied to this project are yen loan, untied loan

and project finance. Overviews are shown in Table-7.

vi

Table-7 Public Financing in Japan expected to be applied to this Project

Type Overview Notes

ODA Yen

Loan

Aimed at economical development support and

financial support between governments.

When public funds and private funds are invested as

a PPP infrastructure project which provides ODA

financing, there is a traditional format where the

investment areas are classified and delineated

(discrete type) and a format where private sector and

public funds are invested and coexist in same area

(integrated type).

Public funds of public

project

Public funds of Scheme-A

Public funds of Scheme-B

(discrete type)

Public funds of Scheme-C

(integrated type)

OOF Untied

Loan

Loans made to foreign governments etc. where

overseas projects carried out in the country and

facilities funding loans in the form of untied loans

which do not limit suppliers. The purpose of the loan

will be business environmental considerations

consisting of support of the activities of Japanese

companies. However, the loan conditions are tight

than for ODA.


project

Public funds of Scheme-A,

B and C

Project

Finance

Project finance is the loan for project implementation

based on the project assets and various rights on

contracts. Repayments are from only cash flow

created by the project (income), and there is no

government, etc. payment guarantee for repayment.

This is different from corporate financing based on

the former borrower finances, details and credit

capability, and in principal there is no payment

guarantee for parent companies, etc.

Private funds for

Scheme-A, B and C

Source: Study team

3) Financial Analysis for PPP Schemes

Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) on Equity (Equity FIRR) from the viewpoint of SPC is

estimated as evaluation index according to the schemes implementing the project with private sector.

For the Equity FIRR, government bonds (10 year) of 6.2% as Indonesian long-term interest rate is

adopted for benchmark. Table-8 shows the summary of preliminary financial analysis of each

scheme. In the Schemes-A to C, proposed system will manage efficiently by private sector with

previous experiences. In Scheme-A: Affermage, private sector will participate only O&M field.

From the result of analysis, this scheme evaluated appropriate approach for the private sector that

satisfies the target level of Equity FIRR and possible to pay usage fee for the government. Although

for public sector, it is the task to fund raise long-term and low-interest rate financing such as

Japanese ODA loan.

vii

Table-8 Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-A to C)

Scheme A) Affermage (private

sector conduct only

O&M)

B) Concession (with

minimum private

share)

C) Consession

Outline Public: construction of

civil works and

procurement of E&M/

rolling stock

Public: construction of

civil works and

part of procurement of

E&M/rolling stock


civil works

Private: O&M by SPC Private: part of

procurement of

E&M/rolling stock

and O&M by SPC

Private: procurement

of E&M/rolling stock

and O&M by SPC

Share of Civil Construction Public 100%

Private 0%

Public 100%

Private 0%

Public 100%

Private 0%

Share of E&M/

Rolling Stock Procurement

Public 100%

Private 0%

Public 70%

Private 30%

Public 0%

Private 100%

O&M by SPC

Asset of SPC none Part of E&M/rolling

stock

E&M/rolling stock

Financial Form of SPC Equity: 30%, Debt: 70%

Revenue of SPC Fare and non-fare revenue

Expenditure of SPC O&M cost and usage fee (10% of total revenue)

Target of Equity FIRR 6.2% of Indonesian long-term interest rate (10 years government bonds)

Equity FIRR (2023) 13.6% negative negative

Equity FIRR (2033) 38.7% 5.4% negative

Source: Study Team

(6) Technical Advantages of Japanese Companies

As APM-system-related technologies, APM vehicles, track for exclusive use, signalling system,

communication equipment, power equipment, railway station facilities, train operation control

system, maintenance facilities, and engineering-works workmanship are listed. The engineering

capabilities of our country are very highly evaluated as the performances of the cases in recent years

in and outside the country show these. Also, the APM system supplied in and outside the country has

secured high safety.

For APM vehicles, development of the vehicles for export is also underway and it can support to

adaptive norms such as required specifications, collision safety performance, and fire-resistant

standard practices of each route. Also, changes of the vehicles organization according to

transportation demand and changes of the exterior and interior design according to the operator's

needs are also possible. Soft sides, such as management, control of maintenance, and education and

training, are also considered to be possible to support the first APM-system introduction in Indonesia

by the high expertise and know-how of our country also including the pilot run before

commencement of operation or maintenance training for staffs.

viii

(7) Detail Schedule and Issues for Realization of the Project

Details schedule at the preparation stage is shown in Figure-2.

Figure-2 Detail Schedule for Realization of the Project Year 2012 2013 2014 2015

Month 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3 6

Submittal of APM system study report

1.Preparation stage

(1)Selection of consultant

(2)Feasibility study

(3)EIA study and disclosure by Govt.

(4)Preparation of resettlement action plan

(5)Award of APM project by Govt.

(6)Process for loan agreement

(7)Basic design and construction plan

(8)Tender process for selection of contractor

(9)Tender preparation by contractor

(10)Tender evaluation and contract with contractor

(11)Land acquisition, Resettlement

(12)Relocation of utilities

Source: Study Team

To realize this project, some factors should be considered as potential risk. First, this project is

premised implementation of electrification and double-double tracking of Java main line project, and

development projects around the area. Delay of those projects might be affect determination of

project implementation. From the existing infrastructure project in Indonesia, it is important to

recognize that land acquisition might be serious risk and plan to minimize land acquisition and

involuntary resettlement. As for financing, it is the task for Indonesian Government to fund raise

long-term and low-interest rate financing.

ix

(8) Project Site Map

Figure-3 Project Site

Source: Study Team

Indonesia

Project Site

MM2100

Industrial Town

Bekasi Fajar


Industrial Estate

Java Main Line


Deltamas City

Legend

：Proposed Route

：Future Extension

：Station

Jababeka

Industrial Park

EJIP

0 1 2 km

N

Bekasi Regency

Chapter 1

Overview of the Host Country and Sector

1-1

1.1 Economic/Financial Circumstances of the Host Country

1.1.1 Social Circumstances

Indonesia is located in the south of southeast Asia, and is the world's largest island nation, composed

of approximately 18,000 large and small islands which straddle the equator and stretch into both the

northern and southern hemisphere. The east west distance of the country is long at approximately

5,110km, with a land area of approximately 1,922,570km2 which is equivalent to approximately 5

times the area of Japan. The population is 237,600,000 people (as of 2010) and is the 4th largest

population in the world following China, India and the United States. The capital Jakarta, located on

the island of Java, has a population of 9,590,000 people (as of 2010). In addition, the country has the

largest Muslim population in the world, and the official language is Indonesian.

Table 1-1 Indonesia Basic Information

Country/Region Name Republic of Indonesia

Area 1,922,570km2 (5.1 times Japan)

Population 237,600,000 people (Central Statistical Office as of 2010)

Capital Jakarta: Population 9,590,000 people (Central Statistical Office as of 2010)

Language Indonesian

Religions Islam, Hindu, Christianity, other

Source: JETRO（http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/asia/idn/basic_01/#block1）

1.1.2 Economic Circumstances

The Indonesian economy has undergone economic management based on IMF programs since the

1997 currency crisis, and promotion of domestic demand has been favorable since 2000. In 2009

after the global financial crisis the country secured a 4.5% growth rate and recovered to 6.1%, the

first time reaching the 6% level in 2 years, in 2010.

Figure 1-1 Real GDP Growth Rate

Source: JETRO (http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/asia/idn/stat_01)

The GDP per person is 3,015 US dollars, exceeding the consumer durable propagation standard of

3,000 US dollars. In addition, the unemployment rate in 2010 was 7.1% and has continued to

1-2

decrease over recent years of stable economic growth.

Exports (year on year +35.4%) and imports (same +40.1%) both expanded, and the 2010 direct

investment received amount was 16,200 million US dollars (year on year +49.9%) making for the

best ever record for the first time in 2 years. There are high expectations for high growth second only

to China and India with promotion of internal demand while advanced nation economy low growth

continues. At present support is being given to expanding the upper in come population and the

export of resources aimed at developing countries, and a firm 6% growth is anticipated.

Table 1-2 Basic Economic Indicators

Item Year 2008 Year 2009 Year 2010

Real GDP growth rate (%) 6.0 4.5 6.1

(Notes) Base year=2000 Base year=2000 Base year=2000

Title GDP Total (Rupiah) 4,951,356,700

million

5,613,441,700

million

6,422,918,200

million

Title GDP Total (US Dollars) 511,213 million 538,457 million 706,735 million

GDP Per Person (Title)- US Dollars 2,237 2,327 3,015

Rate of Increase in Consumer Price

Index (%) 11.06 2.78 6.96

(Notes) 2007=100 2007=100 2007=100

Unemployment Rate (%) 8.4 7.9 7.1

Management Revenue and

Expenditure (International Balance

of Payments Base) - US Dollars

126 million 10,628 million 1,093 million

Trade Balance (International

Balance of Payments Base) - US

Dollars

22,916 million 30,932 million 9,232 million

Foreign Currency Reserves - US

Dollars 49,597 million 63,563 million 92,980 million

External Debt Burden - Dollars 155,080 million 172,871 million 202,413million

Exchange Rates

(Average Value in Term, Rate for

US Dollars)

9,698.9600 10,389.9000 9,090.4300

Exchange Rates

(End of Term Value, Rate for US

Dollars)

10,950.0000 9,400.0000 8,991.0000

Monetary Aggregate Rate of

Increase (%) 14.9 13.0 n.a

Export Amounts - Dollars 137,020 million 116,510 million 157,779 million

Japan Export Amounts - US Dollars 27,744 million 18,575 million 25,782 million

Import Amounts - US Dollars 129,197 million 96,829 million 135,663 million

Japan Import Amounts - US Dollars 15,128 million 9,844 million 16,967 million

Direct Investment Receipt Amounts

- US Dollars 14,871 million 10,815 million 16,215 million

Source: JETRO (http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/asia/idn/stat_01)

1-3

1.1.3 Financial Circumstances

(1) Yen Loan Supply Status

The status of yen loans to Indonesia in 2011 was exchange of letters related to 4 cases with an upper

limit of 73,942 million yen in August. The supply limits and supply conditions for the 4 cases are as

follows.

Table 1-3 Supply Limits and Supply Conditions

Project Name Supplied Amount Limit

(100's of million yen) Interest (%)

Redemption period

(year)/Deferment

period (year)

Procurement

Conditions

Coal Fired Power Plant Project

in Indramayu (E/S) 17.27 0.01 40/10 Untide

Geothermal Power

Development Project 552.99 0.3 40/10 Untide

Bandung Toll Road Project 136.05 Main Project: 1.4

Consultant: 0.01 25/7 Untide

Upper Citarum Basin

Tributaries Flood Management

Project Sector Loan

33.11 Main Project: 1.4

Consultant: 0.01 25/7 Untide

Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan

(2) PPP Examples

Indonesia's infrastructure is immature compared to other countries due to the government’s lack of

resources. Yen loans, etc. which can be used as methods for funding procurement are progressing in

ways which avoid massive foreign debt in infrastructure resources, and the country is participating in

PPP with which bidding participation can be expected by foreign firms as a method for mitigating

government burden while at the same time not incurring large foreign debt.

As one of the PPP commitment measures a policy is being worked on by which PPP items are

publicly released in the PPP Book every year. Cases publicized in the PPP book have the Ministry of

Transportation, Ministry of Public Works, government power company PLN, and governments of

each state as project owners with participation by foreign businesses expected.

Under these circumstances, PLN, the ordering part, announced in June of 2011 that ITOCHU

Corporation and other companies in a business association had successfully bid on a 3,200 million

dollar coal fired power plant development project being planned on the island of Java. Development

risks are covered by the Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund established by the government

aimed at such infrastructure projects. The successful bidding on this project is the first Indonesian

PPP and PLN has high expectations for the project.

1-4

1.2 Overview of Project Sector in the Host Country

1.2.1 Public Transportation in the Project Area

Public transportations in the project area are Java main line (Railway) and minibuses. The Java main

line runs north-south on the north side of Cikarang district. The closest station to the study area is

Cikarang station, which is currently not used as a commuter railroad station. The trains stop at this

station only a few in a day. Therefore, the railway system around study area is not convenient at

present.

Minibuses called “Angkots” are operated as an alternative transportation means. Minibuses converge

on gathering areas and make no stops at any fixed stops except at terminal points, allowing

passengers to get on and off at places of their own choosing. The fare varies depending on the

distance travelled, ranging about from 10 to 20 yen. In this regard, however, the fare is negotiable

according to interviews with local drivers as part of our field survey. The service levels of minibuses

are low as a public transport in terms of transport capacity, reliable transport, passenger safety and

comfort.

As is described above, the existing public transport system around the project area is less well

established and still limited. On the contrary, there is an increasing trend of population growth along

with development projects of industrial parks and complex cities, which creates a need to establish a

APM system.

Figure 1-2 Public Transportations in the Project Area

Source: Study Team

Industrial Parks

Java Main Line


Angkots awaiting passengers on the road

1-5

1.2.2 Outline of Converting National Railway to Commuter Line

(1) Java Main Line

The Java main line traverses east-west across Java Island, running from the urban area including

Jakarta city through the neighboring Bekasi regency. In recent years, traffic volume and the number

of intercity trains have tended towards growth. Furthermore, with the rapid progress in land

development in Jakarta city and around Bekasi regency and an expanding traffic demand in the

capital, Jakarta, shared use of the railway track is unavoidable between the long-distance lines and

the commuter lines on the Bekasi line (between Manggarai and Bekasi stations), which limits the rail

track capacity of the line and hampers smooth traffic control. It is also an obstacle to the

enhancement of the carrying capacity that the Bekasi line crosses at grade with the Central line at

around Manggarai station.

(2) Railway Electrification and Double-Double Tracking of Java Main Line Project

From the above-mentioned situation, the expansion of the existing electrified commuter section on

the Bekasi line has been proposed in order to enhance carrying capacity and streamline operations,

as well as to facilitate the expansion of the commutation area due to industrial complex construction

and estate development in recent years, by separating the long-distance line from the commuter line

through double-double tracking of the Bekasi line and also by dismantling the grade crossing with

the Central line.

In January 1999, the Indonesian government asked Japan for special yen loans for construction of

Railway Electrification (and Double-Double Tracking) of Java Main Line Project. Consequently, in

June 2000, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) sent the appraisal mission and

confirmed the implementation of this project. Thereafter, the government asked Japan for technical

aid on the detailed design study. After conferring with the Indonesian side, on February 12, 2001,

Japan singed and exchanged S/W (Scope of Work, i.e. administrative instructions).

1.2.3 Road plans

The Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road runs through east and west around Cikarang district. The

community is divided into north and south due to the lack of roads to cross the toll road. Under this

circumstance, JICA is working on road construction projects such as constructions of interchanges

and flyovers to cross the toll road.

The road plans are shown in Table 1-3. The plans from No.5 to No.9 are fixed, but those after No.10

are unfixed. The shape of interchange (No.14) which is changed very often will be modified in the

future.

The route plan of the APM system needs planning to avoid overlaps with these road plans.

1-6

Figure 1-3 Road Plans around Study Area

Source: Study Team

16

17

1

5

ｒ

12 6

7 8

9

14

4

10

15 13

5

11

To JAKARTA


CIBITUNG IC-KM 25

CIKARANG BARAT IC-KM 31

CIKARANG TIMUR IC-KM 37

KM 34

3

2

ｒ

0 1 2

km

1-7

1.3 Present Conditions of Project Area

1.3.1 Administrative Divisions around the Study Area

The Cikarang area of Bekasi regency, located in the eastern part of West Java province, is the study

area of this study. The total area of Bekasi regency, belonging to Jakarta metropolitan region

(JABODETABEK), is (accounts for) 127,000ha.

The Cikarang area is located near the center of Bekasi regency and consists of 5 of the 23

Kecamatans (“Sub-districts” in English) of Bekasi regency: Cikarang barat, Cikarang selatan,

Cikarang timur and Cikarang utara.

Figure 1-4 Administrative Divisions of Bekasi Regency

Source: Study Team

KEC. CABANGBUNGIN

KEC. PEBAYURAN

KEC. SUKAKARYA

KEC. KARANG

RAHAGIA

KEC. KEOUNGWARJGIN

KEC. CIKARANG TIMUR

KEC. CIKARANG PUSAT

KEC. BOJONGMANGU KEC. CIBARUSAH

KEC. SERANG BARU

KEC. SETU

KEC. CIKARANG SELATAN

KEC. CIKARANG

BARAT

KEC. CIKARANG UTARA

KEC. TAMBUN SELATAN

KEC. CIBITUNG

KEC. TAMBUN

UTARA KEC. SUKATANI

KEC. TAMBELANG

KEC. SUKAWANGI

KEC. BABELAN

KEC. TARUMAJAYA

KEC. MUARAGEMBONG

N

Bekasi

Regency

Bekasi City

DKI Jakarta

JABODETABEK

1-8

1.3.2 Night-time Population around the Project Area

As is shown in Table 1-4, the whole population of Bekasi regency, approximately 2.275 million in

2009, has been increasing from year to year since 2005, reflecting the trend of population growth in

step with the urban sprawl of the Jakarta metropolitan region. The total population of the 5

sub-districts of Cikarang, which shares about 25% of Bekasi regency's population was

approximately 570,000 people in 2009, and has been increasing year by year. In particular, both

Cikarang barat and Cikarang utara have populations of about 180,000, ranking them highest in

Bekasi regency.

Table1-4 Bekasi Regency Population (2005~2009)

Kecamatan / Sub-district

Population

(people)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Setu 76,830 77,776 80,476 83,016 86,099

Serang Baru 62,329 63,168 65,353 67,433 69,934

Cikarang Pusat 41,291 41,804 43,250 44,644 46,272

Cikarang Selatan 81,270 82,385 85,260 87,969 91,208

Cibarusah 60,232 61,042 63,188 65,189 67,589

Bojongmangu 24,378 24,691 25,505 26,286 27,205

Cikarang Timur 73,781 74,759 77,348 79,823 82,769

Kedungwaringin 51,551 52,224 54,025 55,737 57,792

Cikarang Utara 160,363 162,546 168,181 173,601 180, 012

Karangbahagia 76,908 77,951 80,654 83,232 86,318

Cibitung 143,914 145,850 150,881 155,679 161,453

Cikarang Barat 155,566 157,631 163,079 168,261 174,483

Tambun Selatan 341,175 345,780 357,781 369,233 382,896

Tambun Utara 89,017 90,221 93,347 96,326 99,924

Babelan 147,139 149,132 154,301 159,247 165,147

Tarumajaya 82,363 83,492 86,381 89,124 92,419

Tambelang 34,703 35,119 36,294 37,410 38,785

Sukawangi 41,466 41,972 43,418 44,780 46,437

Sukatani 63,487 64,339 66,597 68,743 71,294

Sukakarya 43,760 44,328 45,859 47,343 49,089

Pebayuran 91,867 93,049 96,316 99,444 103,130

Cabangbungin 48,404 48,998 50,686 52,289 54,186

Muaragembong 36,108 36,538 37,780 38,967 40,401

Kabupaten Bekasi / Bekasi

Regency

2,027,902 2,054,795 2,125,960 2,193,776 2,274,842

*) Colored rows in the table show the 5 sub-districts of Cikarang.

Source: BPS – Statistics of Bekasi Regency

Chapter 2

Study Methodology

2-1

2.1 Study Content

2.1.1 Study Background

At present, members mainly from the Japan Transportation Planning Association hold monthly

meetings at APM (Automated People Mover) International Seminar to discuss the installation of the

Japanese APM system to overseas. The present study is conducted in cooperation with commercial

firms and makers that are members of the seminar, selecting Cikarang district in Indonesia as the

target area of the installation of the APM system.

The target area of study currently relies on road transportation such as buses, taxies and private cars,

which brings road traffic congestion into prominence along with the progress in estate development

and accordingly impacts on the urban environment become an issue. Local interested parties

recognize the necessity of enhancing convenience of the rail transport system with feeder

transportation that connects between the Java main line and Jababeka industrial park, MM2100

industrial town, etc., and improving the urban function of the same area. Through the local offices of

Marubeni Corporation and Mitsui & Co., Ltd., the proposed project installation was explained to the

parties relevant to the industrial park and Bekasi regency where the target area is located and have

obtained their approval. Furthermore, while there is so far no upper-level plan for this project, assent

has been granted from the Regional body for planning and development (BAPPEDA; Badan

Perencana Pembangunan Daerah) of Bekasi regency for this project and the governor of Bekasi

issued a request letter for conducting this study with a high hope for the realization of this project.

From now on, the governor of Bekasi regency will confer with the West Java government, a more

senior organization, to make this project a master plan of West Java province.

2.1.2 Study Objective

This project is aimed at strengthening the feeder function of the Java main line, reducing road traffic

congestion, conserving urban environments from air pollution, etc. As is said above, it is considered

that the installation of the APM system into the area closely connected with Japan can be highly

beneficial for Japanese companies as well as future development of the area.

2.1.3 Study Outline

This study covers technical and financial/institutional aspects of the project as follows.

(1) Study of Technical Aspects of the Project

1) Planning and Demand Forecast

Optimum routes are suggested in consideration of facility situations, future development plans,

installation spaces, the scale of land acquisition, characteristics of the APM system, etc., of the

target area of study. Stations are set at points that are of high convenience based on the research of

customer-attracting facilities and road conditions, etc.

User potential of the APM system is examined from the population, transport characteristics, etc.,

of the target area and future demand is estimated using four-step demand forecast method.

2) Project Construction Planning

Geological formations and conditions along the railway line are surveyed and a basic plan for civil

structures, station buildings and a depot of the APM system is worked out. Plans for signalling,

telecommunications, vehicles, depot facilities, etc., are also designed for the APM system

operation.

2-2

3) Operation and Management Planning

Smooth operation planning is conducted with service standards taken into account based on

demand forecast results and manpower planning related to operation and maintenance is

scrutinized.

4) Approximate Cost Estimating and Project Schedule Examination

Estimated construction cost of the project is calculated in home and foreign currencies each in

consideration of investment timing. The project schedule incorporating procedural periods for

construction and project execution is also examined.

5) Study on Environmental and Social Considerations

Institutions and regulations related to environmental and social considerations in Indonesia are

surveyed and possible environmental and social impacts of the project are identified.

(2) Financial and Institutional Aspects

1) Examination of PPP Schemes

PPP schemes and operations in Indonesia are confirmed and studies on applicable project schemes

are carried out.

2) Economic and Financial Analysis

Multiple cases of introducing yen loans, Indonesian governmental funds and private funds are set

for the project schemes proposed above, their cash flows are computed and indices such as NPV,

EIRR, FIRR, B/C, etc., are calculated.

2-3

2.2 Study Methodology and Organization

2.2.1 Overview

This study consists of field surveys and domestic research. The former includes investigating team

members visits to Indonesia to consult with the relevant parties, obtain materials and make

explorations into the project site. They then bring back the related information to Japan, organize and

analyse the materials and create a report based on consultation with the relevant parties and

implementation policies.

2.2.2 Study Methodology

(1) Domestic Preparatory Work

Studies from past fiscal years conducted in the relevant country and related materials are collected

and their possible applications to this project are examined. The overall composition of this project

and research policies are also inspected.

Lists of the collected data from the relevant parties in the 1st field survey are sorted out.

(2) The 1st Field Survey

Visits are paid to Japanese organizations such as the Embassy of Japan in Indonesia, JBIC, JICA,

etc., Indonesian governmental organizations and developers of the target area to present a summary

of this project, call for research cooperation and obtain materials. Interviews with Japanese

construction companies and consultants are performed to obtain information of local construction

conditions, construction plans in the relevant area, etc.

In the field survey, traffic situations of the target site and road conditions for introduction spaces are

put into investigations.

(3) The 1st Domestic Work

Based on the data and information obtained from the 1st field survey, the overall research policy is

reviewed, investigations are carried out by each person in charge and draft reports are created.

(4) The 2nd

Field Survey

An explanation of the contents of the draft reports is given to Japanese organizations in Indonesia

and Indonesian governmental organizations with opinions exchanged.

(5) The 2nd

Domestic Work

Based on the opinions derived from the 2nd

field survey, alterations and additions are made to the

draft reports and reports are created.

2-4

2.2.3 Study Organization

(1) Study Team

Figure 2-1 shows the study team.

Figure 2-1 Study Team

Source: Study Team

(2) Relevant organization of the host country

1) Bekasi Regency

2) Industrial Parks around the study area

Tostems, INC.

Engineer Overseas Dept.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries,

LTD.

Transportation Systems

Engineering Department

Japan Transportation Planning

Association

Support Company Head Office

Mitsui &Co., LTD.

Transportation Project Div.

Project Manager / Rolling Stock Plan

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, LTD.

Transportation Systems & Advanced

Technology Division Mr. Motoyama Hisashi

Support Company Local Office

Marubeni Corporation Jakarta Office

Construction, Transportation &

Infrastructure

Support Company Local Office

Representative Office of Mitsui &

Co., LTD. in Indonesia

Plant project Div.

Demand Forecast

Mr. Yamazaki Seiichiro

Basic Policy

Mr. Sakai Hidenori

Route Plan１

Mr. Yamazaki Tsutomu

Route Plan２

Mr. Yamauchi Masahiro

E&M system

Mr. Utsugi Hiroshi

Train Operation Plan

Mr. Chiba Nobuyuki

O&M Plan

Mr. Tanaka Shoji

Civil Works Plan

Mr. Inoue Akitoshi

Depot Plan/Cost Estimation

Mr. Ishihara Junichi

Social & Economic Consideration

Mr. Kato Shigeru

Economic & Financial Analysis

Ms. Aoki Naomi

Support Company Head Office

Marubeni Corporation

Railway & Transport Project

Dept.

Project Team -Ⅰ

MM2100 Industrial Town

Lippo Cikarang Industrial Estate

Jababeka Industrial Park

Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate

EJIP

Bekasi Regency Government Planning Dep. Transportation Dept.

2-5

2.3 Study Schedule

2.3.1 Overall Study Schedule

Figure 2-1 shows the overall study schedule.

Figure 2-2 Overall Study Schedule

Work Activity 2011 2012

Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.

Work in Japan

1) Preparation

2) 1st Stage of work in Japan

3) 2nd

Stage of work in Japan

Field Survey

1) 1st Field survey

(Nov. 13, 2011-Nov. 27, 2011)

2) 2nd

Field survey

(Feb. 5, 2012-Feb. 11, 2012)

Reporting, etc.

1) Interim Reporting ▼

(12/15)

2) Submission of Draft Report ▼

(1/13)

3) Final Reporting ▼

(2/15)

4) Submission of Final Report ▼

(2/23)

Source: Study Team

2-6

2.3.2 Study Periods

(1) Domestic Work Periods

Table 2-1 shows the domestic work periods.

Table 2-1 Domestic Work Periods

Duty Name of Team Member Company Period


Mr. Motoyama Hisashi Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, LTD.

2011/11/1~11/19 11/28~2012/2/4 2012/2/12~2/23

Demand Forecast Mr. Yamazaki Seiichiro Tonichi Engineering Consultants, INC

2011/11/1~11/12 11/28~2012/2/4 2012/2/12~2/23


Ms. Aoki Naomi Tostems, INC. 2011/11/1~11/19 11/28~2012/2/4 2012/2/12~2/23


Mr. Kato Shigeru Tostems, INC. 2011/11/1~11/12 11/28~2012/2/4 2012/2/12~2/23

Basic Policy Mr. Sakai Hidenori Japan Transportation Planning Association

2011/11/1~2012/2/23

Route Plan 1 Mr. Yamazaki Tsutomu Japan Transportation Planning Association

2011/11/1~2012/2/23

Route Plan 2 Mr. Yamauchi Masahiro Japan Transportation Planning Association

2011/11/1~2012/2/23

Civil Works Plan Mr. Inoue Akitoshi Tostems, INC. 2011/11/1~11/12 11/28~2012/2/23


Mr. Ishihara Junichi Tostems, INC. 2011/11/1~12/26

E&M system Mr. Utsugi Hiroshi Tostems, INC. 2011/11/1~11/19 11/28~2012/2/23


Mr. Chiba Nobuyuki Tostems, INC. 2011/11/1~11/12 11/28~2012/2/23

O&M Plan Mr. Tanaka Shoji Tostems, INC. 2011/11/1~2012/2/23

Source: Study Team

(2) Field Survey Periods

Table 2-2 shows the field survey periods.

Table 2-2 Field Survey Periods

Duty Name of Team Member Company Period


Mr. Motoyama Hisashi Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, LTD.

2011/11/20~11/27 2012/2/5~2/11

Demand Forecast Mr. Yamazaki Seiichiro Tonichi Engineering Consultants, INC

2011/11/13~11/27 2012/2/5~2/11


Ms. Aoki Naomi Tostems, INC. 2011/11/20~11/27 2012/2/5~2/11


Mr. Kato Shigeru Tostems, INC. 2011/11/13~11/27 2012/2/5~2/11

Civil Works Plan Mr. Inoue Akitoshi Tostems, INC. 2011/11/13~11/27


Mr. Ishihara Junichi Tostems, INC. 2011/11/13~11/27

E&M system Mr. Utsugi Hiroshi Tostems, INC. 2011/11/20~11/27


Mr. Chiba Nobuyuki Tostems, INC. 2011/11/13~11/27

Source: Study Team

2-7

(3) Field Survey Itineraries

The 1st and 2

nd field surveys were conducted for 15 days (Nov. 13-27, 2011) and for 7 days (Feb.

5-11, 2012) respectively. Table 2-3 shows the main work activity.

Table 2-3 Work Activity

Date Work Activity Name (Position)

1st Field

Survey

Nov. 14,

2011

JBIC Mr. Homma Manabu (Chief Representative)

JETRO Mr. Saito Ken (Vice President Director)

JICA Mr. Matsunaga Akira (Senior Representative)

Mr. Ihara Hidenori (Representative)

Nov. 15 BAPPENAS (Infrastructure Affairs) Mr. Dedy S.Priatna, PhD (Deputy Minister for

Infrastructure Affairs)

Ir. Bambang Prihartono, MSCE (Director)

Nov. 16 BAPPENAS (Bilateral Foreign

Funding)

Mr. Kennedy Simanjuntak (Director of

Bilateral Foreign Funding)

Nov. 18 Ministry of Transportation Public of

Indonesia / Directorate General of

Railways

Mr. Nugroho Indrio (Secretary Directorate

General Director General of Railway Ministry

of Transportation)

Mr. Heru Wisnu Wibowo (Head of Planning

Division)

Mr. Santoso Sinaga (Staf Bagian

Perencanaan)

Ms. Vonny Mahendri (Staf of Planning

Division)

Nov. 21 Oriental Consultants, Co., Ltd(Road

Transport Department / Project

Manage)

Mr. Wakita Yuichi (Project Manager)

Nov. 22 PLN (Head Office) Mr. Purnomo Willy BS (Head of Java Bali

Distribution Division)

Mr. Victor T. Sitorus (Manager Senior System

Distribution Java-Bali)

Nov. 23 Bekasi Regency Mr. DR. H. Ta’duddin, MM (Bupati Bekasi)

MM2100 Industrial Town Mr. Kobi Yoshihiro (President & C.E.O)

Lippo Cikarang Industrial Estate Mr. Loh, Meow Chong (President Director /

CEO)

Mr. Dipl-Ing. Ju Kian Salim (Director)

Mr. Alexander Sananto (Project Management

Division Head General Manager)

Mr. Eddy Triyanto Sudjatmiko, St., Meng. Sc.

(Infrastructure Design Department Head

Manager)

Jababeka Industrial Park Mr. S. D. Darmono (President Director)

Mr. Hyanto Wihadhi (Director)

Mr. Fukuda Tsuyoshi (General Manager)

Mr. Nuki Hartanto Kadiman (Master Planner)

Mr. Rahendra Vidyasantika

Nov. 25 Embassy of Japan Indonesia Mr. Yoshizawa Takashi (Counselor)

Mr. Kamite Kenji (First Secretary)

PLN (Branch Office) Mr. Fery Jusmedi Marbun (Power System

Engineer Planning Division)

Others: General Contractor, Consultant, Local Consultant / Site Survey

2-8

Date Work Activity Name (Position)

2nd

Field

Survey

Feb. 6,

2012

MM2100 Industrial Town Mr. Kobi Yoshihiro (President & C.E.O)

Feb. 7 Joint conference with 6 Industrial

Estates

MM2100 Industrial Town

Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate

Lippo Cikarang industrial estate

East Jakarta industrial park

Jababeka Industrial Park,

Deltamas City

(Total 20 participants)

BAPPENAS (Infrastructure Affairs) Mr. Bastary Pandji Indra (Director of PPP

Development), and 5 participants

Feb. 8 Bekasi Regency Mr. DR. H. Ta’duddin, MM (Bupati Bekasi),

and 2 participants

BAPPEDA Mr. MP. Jamary Tarigan (Chairman)

Ms. R.A. Koesoemo Roekmi, and 12

participants

Feb. 9 Embassy of Japan Indonesia Mr. Ushio Shigeru (Minister)

Mr.Kamite Kenji (First Secretary)

Feb. 10 Ministry of Transportation,

Directorate General of Railways

(DGR)

Mr. Asri Syafei and 8 participants

JETRO Mr. Tomiyoshi Kenichi (President Director)

Mr. Ichihara Katsunori (Senior Director)

BAPPENAS (Bilateral Foreign

Funding)

Mr. Kennedy Simanjuntak (Director of

Bilateral Foreign Funding)

JBIC Mr. Homma Manabu (Chief Representative)

Ms. Fukaya Satoko (Representative)

JICA Mr. Ihara Hidenori (Representative)

Source: Study Team

Chapter 3

Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of

the Project

3-1

3.1 Background, Necessity, Etc. for Project

3.1.1 Background of Project and Positioning

(1) Background of the project

The Cikarang district which is the region for this project is located in about 30 km east of Jakarta,

and consists of five sub-districts, the west Cikarang, the north Cikarang, the south Cikarang, the east

Cikarang, and the center of Cikarang. In the sub-districts concerned, about 570,000 people live in the

area of 248 km2 as of 2009, and it is expected that population continues to increase rapidly. The

Cikarang district is divided into the partition of the Jababeka industrial park, the MM2100 industrial

town, the Lippo Cikarang industrial estate, the EJIP, Deltamas City, etc., and is developed as a

large-scale industrial park and a complex city, and development is underway still now. For example,

the Jababeka industrial park had a site of 5,600ha, and consisted of an industrial park, commercial

facilities, a residential compound, educational facilities, amusement facilities, etc., and, as for the

industrial park, the companies from 30 or more nations in the world have moved in. Marubeni Corp.

who is a cooperation company of this sutdy has contributed 60% to the MM2100 industrial town and

Japanese companies form a little less than 70% of 100 or more of the companies advancing into this

industrial town.

The Java main line runs to the north side in the area concerned, and Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road is

running in the center of the area from east and west. Although the traffic in the area depends on the

road traffic of cars, buses, minibuses, and motorbikes, chronic traffic congestion has occurred in the

everywhere in the area by the shortage of road capacity, and a heavy road traffic. Especially there are

few roads which cross Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, and almost all existing roads are narrow where

the north-south area was divided. Although creation of the road master plan of the area concerned is

underway by JICA now, it is considered difficult to improve the traffic situation of the area

concerned only by road maintenance and improvement in the future. Also, the railway electrification

and double-double tracking of Java main line project are to be promoted as a yen credit project in the

near future for Java main line. It is considered that the economic activity of the area concerned

becomes increasingly active with increase in Cikarang station users.

This project uses the Cikarang station as a terminal, introduces a APM system as feeder line traffic to

the Jababeka industrial park and MM2100 industrial town, etc., and aims at strengthening the

north-south traffic axis. Thereby, confusion dissolution of the road traffic of the area concerned,

preservation of the urban environment by relief of air pollution, improvement in the convenience of

the commuter to the industrial park concerned, etc. are expected. Furthermore, it is considered that

introduction of the APM system to the area where many Japanese companies have moved in as

mentioned above has the high benefit effect to Japanese-owned companies together with area

development and revitalization of the economy.

(2) Positioning of the project

The high rank plan about the project concerned does not exist now. However, the developer related

personnel involved in the industrial park of the area concerned recognize that communications

strengthening to the Cikarang station aligned with transportation capacity reinforcement of the Java

main line and the area concerned is required for the improvement in the urban function of the area

concerned. Also, in the Bekasi regency which administers over the object area, approval has been

obtained from Governor of Bekasi regency and Regional body for planning and development

(BAPPEDA; Badan Perencana Pembangunan Daerah), and realization of this project is expected.

3-2

3.1.2 Necessity for APM System Introduction

The necessity for the APM system introduction to the area concerned is shown below.

(1) Reduction of road traffic congestion

Although explained in full detail in the clause of the below-mentioned "Demand forecast", the travel

speed of the road traffic of the peak time period in the area concerned is 13.8 km/h, and even 3 to 5

km/h is also observed in some places at the congestion section (Kajian Lalu Lintas Pada Simpag (PT.

Lippo Cikarang, Tbk, survey in 2010)). Thus, road congestion is a cause of a serious social problem,

and has interfered with the economic activity of the area concerned. It is considered that the area

concerned is difficult to handle the road traffic which increases more and more with development of

a large-scale complex city and an industrial park by only road maintenance and improvement

although creation of the road master plan in underway by JICA presently. Introduction of a APM

system contributes to the reduction of road traffic congestion by transition from road traffic, such as

cars and buses, and can expect to secure a smooth road traffic flow.

(2) Securing of Industrial park commuter's convenience and safety

Large-scale industrial parks, such as Jababeka industrial park, MM2100 industrial town, Lippo

Cikarang industrial estate, and EJIP, are getting together in the area concerned and a large majority

of employees commute there. There are many residents of the places about 15 km away, such as

Bekasi city and Cibarusah district, among commuters, and most of them commute by the bus and

motorbike arranged by factories. Cars, buses, and motorbikes converge at a peak time period, and

securing of punctuality is difficult. Also, lack of driving manners was added to the congested road

traffic, and the traffic accident has occurred frequently. At the time of the interview with industrial

park related personnel, it is reported that at least two traffic accidents/d have occurred. Thus, it is

considered that introduction of the APM system is desirable as an aid to overcome the poor traffic

situation for the commuter of the industrial park.

(3) Introduction of the APM system united with future development planning

The Java main line goes from east and west at the north side in the area concerned. The trains which

stop at Cikarang station currently assumed to be a terminal of the APM system are presently 5/d/one

direction and are not functioning as a commuter. It is decided that this Java main line will fix

functional reinforcement by yen credit at present. In order to cope with a shortage of track capacity,

and the future increase of trains, it is to be electrified between the Bekasi station and the Cikarang

station in addition to separating operation of the commuter trains while building double-double

tracks between Manggarai station and Cikarang station. This makes it easy to access to the Bekasi

city and the Jakarta metropolitan area to the area concerned by the increase of accessibility to the

area concerned from neighboring areas, and it is expected that Cikarang station users increase in

number. As a means of transportation for visitors from other areas and for the commuters and callers

from the area concerned to other areas, introduction of the APM system is required.

(4) Benefit effects to Japanese-owned companies

The large-scale industrial park located the area concerned as shown in Table 3-1, and 2,100 or more

companies have moved in from various countries in the world. Japanese companies represent about

15% of 310 companies among them. While the city traffic of the area concerned is expanded by

introducing the APM system and activation of the economic activities will be attained, it leads to

development of the industrial park and a boosting up of companies which are making inroads in the

future.

3-3

Table3-1 Number of Companies in the Industrial Park of the Target Region

(Unit：Companies)

Area name of industrial park

Number of moved in companies

Grand total Indonesia

companies

Japanese-owned

company Others

Jababeka Industrial Park 1,250 500 80 670

MM2100 Industrial Town 173 34 115 24

Lippo Cikarang Industrial Estate 468 361 27 80

Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate 96 67 16 13

EJIP 85 8 68 9

Deltamas City 61 57 4 0

Total 2,133 1,027 310 796

Source: Marubeni Jakarta branch office (as of October, 2010)

3-4

3.2 Various Examinations Required for Determination of

Project Details, Etc.

3.2.1 Route Plan

The proposed system aims to serve as public transportation for areas around the railway as well as

feeder transportation running to industrial parks and the complex city as the starting point for

Cikarang station of the Java main line. In the examination of the route proposal the basic policy for

the background for this proposal and alternative proposals is as follows.

(1) Background of the Proposal Related to the Examination of the Route

Table3-2 Background of the Proposal Related to the Examination of the Route

Needs Necessity of feeder

transportation for Cikarang

station of the Java main line

Necessity of Cikarang's

public transportation

improvement

Necessity of provision of

means of commuting to work

for industrial park employees

Present

conditions

and

Future

Plans

After the completion of the

currently in progress

double-double tracking project,

it will become an important

terminal as the eastern tip of a

commuting line with a large

volume of travelers connecting

to Cikarang station, Bekasi

station and Manggarai station.

The bulk of Cikarang's

public transportation is

made up of "Angkot"

minibuses.

Angkots have a small

transport capacity of about 6

to 7 people per vehicle and

are the same type of

transportation as a shared

taxi.

The methods of commuting

for industrial complex

employees are motorcycles

and scooters for relatively

short distances and buses

provided by employers. These

commuter buses travel from

Cikarang district and

surroundings.

Issues Once the conversion to a

commuter line is completed,

the service that can be provided

by Angkots will be insufficient

in terms of both quality and

quantity in relation to the

demand for feeder

transportation for Cikarang

station.

There is no public

transportation which serves

as a backbone for the

north-south axis for

transportation in the area.

Roads around Cikarang

station in particular suffer

from chronic traffic

congestion.

During commuting hours the

toll road are congested with

commuter buses from the toll

road interchange to the

industrial complexes and in

addition the worsening of the

toll road congestion problems

are increasing the cost of

running the commuter buses

as well as the amount of time

spent by commuters for

commuting.

Solutions In order to convert railways to

electrical and fully exert the

benefits of the conversion to a

commuter line project, it is

necessary to secure feeder

transportation which meets the

demand of the commuter line

and create and environment

where is easy for residents and

workers to use the railway.

Introduce a medium scale

transport system to fill the

gap between the railways

and Angkots as a public

transportation.

Establish a public

transportation organization in

charge of commuter

transportation to industrial

parks through merger with the

commuter line.

Proposal Introduce a public transportation organization which ties together Cikarang station, industrial

parks and the complex city.

Source: Study Team

3-5

(2) Basic Policy for the Setting of Proposed Route

1) Role of the Proposed System

The purpose of the proposed system is to function as feeder transportation for Cikarang station of

the Java main line in addition to improving Cikarang's public transportation service and redusing

road traffic congestion. For this reason, a route plan will be selected which allows for introduction

of a public transportation system with transport capacity appropriate to demand and exceptional

punctuality and speediness.

2) Overall Image

From the viewpoint of improving as a public transportation organization, this project requires

improvement of traffic convenience in target areas, reduction of road traffic congestion, promotion

of regional economic growth and generation of economic profit. On the other hand, in order to

quickly advance the project, it can be expected that private sector participation and international

financial organization support will be required, so it will also be necessary to consider manifesting

beneficial effects for relevant private sectors and relevant countries. For these reasons the route

should provide convenience to not just a specific industrial park but to a wide range of industrial

parks. In addition, in order to spur participation in the project by developers for areas around the

railway, etc., the route shall also take into consideration the future installation of new stations and

potential for route expansion.

3) Starting Point and End Point

It can be expected that there will be a great potential demand for railway service by employees,

residents and visitors of the industrial park that spans to south of Cikarang and complex city, so

the securing of feeder transportation for these areas has high priority. The starting point for the

route will be set as Cikarang station of the Java main line and the end point inside the industrial

park/complex city.

4) Range to be Covered by Railway Station Sphere

The industrial park/complex city area covers a wide area so it is not realistic to directly cover all

of this area as the railway station sphere for the proposed route. As such, the stations in the

industrial park/complex city are expected to serve as hubs as a terminal transportation facility for

Angkots and other small scale transportation systems.

5) Future Expansion

The industrial park and complex city have a future development plan and development concept

which allows for project lot expansion, development of large scale residential areas and attraction

of commercial facilities.

At the present stage of alternative proposal examinations, the plan does not cover industrial

park/complex city future development plan/concept target areas, but rather handles this through

expansion of the route and establishment of new stations in the future when development

progresses. This study proposes the areas for which preparation is vital as "Initial" and areas for

which future expansion is assumed as "Ultimate".

6) Track Right of Way

The right of way for proposed system will be elevated and separated from road traffic. In addition,

from the point of view of social environmental considerations, the plan should minimize the

involuntary resettlement as much as possible.

3-6

(3) Setting of Proposed Route

Based upon the above policy, the two proposals shown in Figure 3-1 have been set.

Both use Cikarang station as a starting point and move south to the industrial parks. After passing the

toll road, proposed 1 extends northwest and proposed route 2 extends southeast.

In addition, the section of the route inside MM2100 industrial town's southwest edge and the section

which heads from the depot proposed site toward Deltamas City are future planned routes to be

prepared during the Ultimate portion of the project.

Figure 3-1 Proposed Routes

Source: Study Team

Cikarang station

Cikarang Station

Proposed Depot Site

Java Main Line


Interchange of toll road

Legend

：Proposed route 1

：Proposed route 2

：Future Extension

MM2100

Industrial Town

Bekasi Fajar

Industrial Estate

Lippo Cikarang

Industrial Estate

Deltamas City

Jababeka

Industrial Park

EJIP

0 1 2 km

Industrial road

3-7

Overviews of proposed routes 1 and 2 are shown below.

Table3-3 Proposed Route Overview

Item Proposed Route 1 Proposed Route 2

Route Cikarang station~Jababeka industrial

park~Bekasi Fajar industrial

estate~MM2100 industrial town

Cikarang station~ Industry road

~Jababeka-Cikampek Toll Road Cikaran

interchange area~Lippo Cikarang industry

estate

Extension

Distance (km)

Approx. 12km Approx. 11km

The depot location will be the same with

proposed route 1 due to the difficulty for

finding the depot site. Therefore, total route

length is longer than proposed route 1

considering to approx. 2.5km length of the

approach track from the main line to the

depot.

Right of Way In the roads inside the industrial parks,

the wide green belt in the center of the

road widths will can used and elevated

installation is possible.

Because the road with of the Industry road

which heads south from the station towards

the toll road is narrow and a wide width is

necessary, it will become necessary to

expropriate the land along the road.

Technical

Merit or

Demerit

The right of way is mainly a strip of

green belt, thus the impact of other

public transportations is low. In addition,

the construction is easy that the

nighttime work is not necessary.

The right of way is mainly arterial road,

thus road widening maintenance and road

crossing during the construction are

necessary. The nighttime work is also

necessary due the lack of the right of way.

Instruction

Cost

Land acquisition cost is saved using the

green belt of industrial parks. Comparing

with proposed route 2, the personnel cost

is also saved because the construction is

done during daytime work.

As mentioned above, the approach track

length is long than that of proposed route 1,

thus the cost of civil works for proposed

route 2 is approximately 1.1 times.

Involuntary settlements increase with the

APM introduction.

The construction cost is higher due to the

traffic control and nighttime work.

Proposed

Depot Site

The proposed site is undeveloped land

within the Bekasi Fajar industrial estate

area.

There are future development plans for

Jababeka industrial park, EJIP, and securing

depot site is difficult.

If the same position as proposed route 1 is

used as the site, the approach track from the

main line to the depot will be long and

uneconomical.

Development

Plan for Area

along Railway

There are plans for new installation of

interchange on toll road which accesses

the industrial park, development of

commercial facilities in area to the north

of toll road and Bekasi Fajar industrial

estate development.

Jababeka industrial park and Lippo

Cikarang industrial estate residential

development are ongoing.

Social Benefit Industrial park commuter’s convenience

increase.

Cikarang station user's convenience

increase. Developments of commercial facilities

become more active with the APM

introduction.

Source: Study Team

3-8

(4) Evaluation of Proposed Routes

Proposed route 1 is selected as the route for the proposed system. Therefore, only proposed route 1 is

subject to the discussion after this article in this study report.

For proposed route 1, use of the wide road center in the industrial park is possible, which greatly

reduces the completion risks involved in acquiring land compared to proposed route 2, and also

allows for involuntary resettlement to be minimized.

(5) Route Overview

The proposed route uses Cikarang station of the Java main line as a starting point and bypasses

Jababeka industrial park with the terminal station planned near the IT center planned in the MM2100

industrial town. Development of commercial facilities is planned in the Jababeka industrial park to

the north of the toll road partway along the route and development of an industrial park in Bekasi

Fajar industrial estate is also planned.

The entire route will be elevated. The track will be installed in the air above the approximately 10m

wide greenbelt in the center of the road within the industrial park.

In the area which crosses the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, it is necessary to install a bridge to pass

over the toll road. Because it is difficult to construct the bridge supports for the main route bridge in

the median strip of the toll road, a steel long span bridge will be used. In addition, the position for

crossing the toll road will be a position avoiding the location where the currently planned

interchange will be installed between Jababeka industrial park and Bekasi Fajar industrial estate.

In the areas inside MM2100 industrial town where the route will be installed where steel towers for

high voltage lines stand, elevated structures need to install without impact for high voltage lines. In

addition, if any underground installations impede the construction, the installations will be relocated.

3-9

Figure 3-2 Proposed Route 1

Source: Study Team

MM2100

Industrial Town

Bekasi Fajar

Industrial Estate

Jababeka

Industrial Park

Proposed site for depot

Long spanned bridge is needed

Connection with Cikarang station

APM will runs over greenbelt in industrial estates

High voltage line over greenbelt

Plan for interchange of toll road

0 1 2 km

Lippo Cikarang

Industrial Estate

Deltamas City

EJIP

3-10

Photo 3-1 Current Conditions of Proposed Route

Cikarang station

Track condition near Cikarang station

Greenbelt inside Jababeka industrial park Planned site for flyover to cross

the toll road

Bekasi Fajar industrial estate

(planned site)

High voltage lines inside

MM2100 industrial town

Source: Study Team

3-11

3.2.2 Demand Forecast

(1) Premise for Demand Forecast

1) General

a) Forecasting objective Year

The initial objective year for demand forecast is supposed to be year 2019, meeting the opening

year of target transport system. (e.g. year 2020 was applied to the MPA (Metropolitan Priority

Area for Investment and Industry) master plan study.)

Since final year for demand forecast is needed to take into account of the project life, generally it

is assumed to be 10 through 30 year term. Year 2030 is assumed for the mid term, year 2048 for

the long term in this study.

b) Objectives of demand forecast

Target area for demand forecast covers following 5 zones located in the middle of Bekasi regency.

Figure 3-3 Target Area for Demand Forecast

Source: Study Team

This demand forecast focuses on passengers transport demand produced /attracted in target area.

2) Assumption on provision of urban transport network

It is assumed that major regional transport projects concerning target area (Cikarang district) is to

be completed by objective year. In this study “The railway electrification and double-double

tracking of Java main line project“, which was proposed in SITRAMP2 (The Study on Integrated

Transportation Master Plan for JABODETABEK in the Republic of Indonesia (Phase2), 2004) by

JICA, is taken into consideration.

East Cikarang

North Cikarang

South Cikarang

West Cikarang

Central Cikarang

East Cikarang（Cikarang Timur） 51 km2

North Cikarang (Cikarang Utara) 43 km2

South Cikarang (Cikarang Selatan) 52 km2

Central Cikarang (Cikarang Pusat) 48 km2

West Cikarang (Cikarang Barat) 54 km2

Whole area 248 km2

3-12

Figure3-4 Java Main Line

Source: JICA SITRAMP2 (The Study on Integrated Transportation Master Plan for

JABODETABEK in the Republic of Indonesia (Phase2), 2004)

Currently the Java main line is operated in double tracking basis, mixing interurban services and

commuting services. It is difficult to increase network capacity (train dispatching) due to

limitation of track transport capacity. The project of double-double tracking aims at separating

inter urban services and local services and expediting modal transfer to railway through improving

service level for commuter transport by electrification.

3) Assumption on the land development plan in target area

A number of multiple urban development projects, including industrial park and residential estate,

are carried out by several land developers. The development area, including existing one, is

assumed as follows based on available information from developers.

Railway electrification and double-double tracking

of Java main line project

Cikarang

Bekasi

Cibitung West Bekasi

Manggarai

3-13

Table 3-4 Assumption on Development Area Size in Target Area

Source: Arranged by study team based on the information of each developer

(2) Analysis on current transport condition

1) Transport characteristics of commuting

a) Commuting time

According to the commuters census conducted by BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik）in 2005, the

average commuting time in each metropolitan area of Indonesia was presented as shown in Table

3-5.

Table 3-5 Distribution of Average Commuting Time in Metropolitan Area

Metropolitan area

Distribution of commuting time (%)

Less than

30minutes 30~59minutes 60~120minutes

120minutes

and over

Kota Jakarta Timur 20.9 32.4 37.9 8.7

Kota Bekasi 16.0 33.7 43.2 7.1

Kota Depok 23.5 21.3 38.7 16.5

Kab. Bandung 40.1 24.1 23.7 12.1

Kab. Deli Serdang 40.9 38.2 18.0 2.9

Kab. Bogor 12.3 27.2 35.3 24.8

Source: Profil Komuter, 2005 Badan Pusat Statistik

In case of Bekasi city close to target area, most of commuters spend 1 to 2 hours on their

commuting, followed by commuters spending 30 minutes to 1 hour. These data demonstrate

relatively long travel time for commuters in metropolitan area.

Zone Name of developer Residential

development (ha) Industrial

development (ha)

East Cikarang

Kota Jababeka 520 -

Kota Jababeka 276 -

Total 796 0

North Cikarang Kota Jababeka 340 1,256

Total 340 1,256

South Cikarang

Kota Jababeka 60 314

Lippo 730 -

Delta silicon - 300

Ejip - 300

Hyundai - 200

Total 790 1,114

Central Cikarang

Kota Jababeka 100 -

Delta mas 1,500 -

Total 1,600 0

West Cikarang

Bekasi Fajar 150 -

MM2100 40 805

Total 190 805

Whole area 2,116 3,175

3-14

b) Transport modal share in commuting trip

Table 3-6 Modal Characteristics of Commuters

Metropolitan area

Commuting transport means

Collective

transportation

including mass transit

Private transport

means (private

cars, motorbike)

Walking

Kota Jakarta Timur 55.4 39.3 5.4

Kota Bekasi 57.9 38.5 3.6

Kota Depok 58.4 34.6 7.0

Kota Bendung 48.6 31.4 20.0

Kab. Deli Serdang 57.4 37.4 5.3

Kab. Bogor 82.5 14.1 3.4

Source: Profil Komuter, 2005 Badan Pusat Statistik

The table 3-6 shows that 30 to 40% of commuters are choosing private transport means such as

private cars and motorbikes and 60% or less of commuters are choosing public mass transport

means like bus.

As target system is categorized as collective transport means, about 60% of commuters is

supposed to be users of the system.

2) Road traffic congestion

Traffic congestion on road contrasts the comparative advantage of transport system with dedicated

ROW like objective transport systems, thus road traffic congestion often turns to be significant

factors affecting transport demand. A traffic study related to the introduction of new toll road

interchange in Cikarang districts the current road travel speed in urban area as shown in table 3-7.

Table 3-7 Result of Travel Speed Survey in Cikarang

Check points of elapsed time

Distance from

Starting Point

(×100m)

Elapsed

Time

(H:M:S)

Required

Time

(H:M:S)

Av.

Speed

(km/h)

Kantor Camat Cikarang Selatan 0.0 8:51:00

Simpang Hyudai 1.6 8:55:09 0:04:09 23.13

Simpang Lippo Cikarang 3.2 9:00:00 0:04:51 19.79

Simpang Taman Sentosa 5.6 9:01:51 0:01:51 77.84

Jembatan Layang 6.9 9:03:45 0:01:54 41.05

Simpang Jababeka II 8.6 9:36:45 0:33:00 3.09

Simpang Jababeka I 10.5 9:46:02 0:09:17 12.28

Simpang Pasirgombang 11.4 9:47:25 0:01:23 39.04

Simpang Jababeka Segitaga Mas 11.9 9:48:37 0:01:12 25.00

Simpang President University 13.3 9:51:14 0:02:37 32.10

Simpang Jl. Simpangan 14.9 9:54:55 0:03:41 26.06

Simpang Lemah Abang 15.0 9:56:07 0:01:12 5.00

Total 15.0 1:05:07 13.80

Source: Kajian lalu lintas pada Simpang(PT. Lippo Cikarang, Tbk, 2010)

3-15

Figure 3-5 Survey Route of Travel Speed Survey

Source: Kajian Lalu Lintas Pada Simpang Susun Cibatu, 2010

Although survey result is related to morning peak situation, its average road speed decreases to

around 14 km/h due to several road sections with heavy traffic such as the section near Jababeka

II (3.1km), Jl. Simpangan (5.0km) etc. The surveyed route is only a trunk road connecting

between north and south areas in Cikarang. The adverse effect by traffic jams is considered to

spread over surrounding area because of no alternative roads linking north and south.

3) Traffic volume fluctuation by time

Traffic volume fluctuation by time in Cikarang district is shown in Figure 3-6. The hourly peak

rate for 16 hours, from 6:00AM to 10:00PM, is calculated 10% for single direction and 5% for

both directions. Since this number stands for trips in all purpose, the hourly peak rate might rise

significantly if it is supposed to commuting trips. Accordingly 10% of peak hour rate for both

directions should be conceivable on the planning basis.

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Figure 3-6 Traffic Fluctuation by Time for Weekday

Source: Kajian lalu lintas pada simpang (PT. Lippo Cikarang, Tbk, 2010)

(3) Demand Forecast Model

1) Consideration of transport network in target area and methodology of demand forecast

a) Transport network in target area

Target area is supposed to be an industrial development area which is located at eastern outer rim

of JABODETABEK. Majority of trip generation is considered to be commuting related traffic of

which trip end falls into industrial park zones.

Regarding the transport demand related to industrial park, it is noted that the east Jakarta industrial

area is developed eastward along the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road and the industrial park site

similar to Cikarang is also established in Karawang regency. Therefore it is necessary to consider

the employment potential in both industrial parks area as well as the demographic potential in

Bekasi city and DKI Jakarta as influential factors to transport demand.

Figure 3-7 is prepared to analyze the regional transport dynamics from viewpoints of demand.

From this figure, followings are pointed out.

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Figure 3-7 Regional and Transport Network Structure Concerning Target Area

Kota Bekasi Cikarang Karawang Administrative division 1,500 thousand 554 thousand 450 thousand ←existing population

Cibarusah 138 thousand

Source: Study Team

Bekasi city and Karawang regency are located at approximately 15km from study area,

and their transport condition for commuters are considered to be almost same.

Three area, Cikarang district, Bekasi city and Karawang regency, are connected by trunk

road route and furthermore there is another connection via toll road passing south side of

Cikarang. Beside of connection by road network, there is a railway operation between 3

areas, however it is out of consideration to assume its availability due to its poor service

level. In this study, the completion of railway upgrading project is assumed to be

indispensable.

Looking at the demographic potential of each district in urban vicinity closed to the target

area, Bekasi city shows largest size of population and inter connective relation between

areas seems to have an order, Target area > Bekasi city > Karawang regency.

In Karawang regency, an industrial park cluster as large as that of Cikarang district is

established and thus considerable volume of commuter trips of Karawang regency might

be attracted in the industrial zone of Karawang regency. As a result, it is anticipated that

trips for Cikarang district would decrease.

b) Basic policy of demand forecast

i. General work flow of demand forecast

The demand forecast is carried out according to the following flowchart.

Bekasi City

15 Km 15 Km

Cluster of Bekasi

Industrial Estate

Cluster of Karawang

Industrial Estate

JKT-Cikampek Toll

Road

Railway

Cibarusah

17 Km

3-18

Figure 3-8 General Flowchart for Demand Forecast

Source: Study Team

ii. Zoning

Traffic zoning is defined according to following table, including 5 internal zones consisting of

target area and 5 external zones.

Table 3-8 Establishment of Zoning

Category Number

of Zones Component

Internal 5 (1)East Cikarang (2)North Cikarang (3)South Cikarang (4)Central

Cikarang (5)West Cikarang

External 5 (6)Bekasi city (7)Karawang regency (8)Cibarusah district (9)For JKT via

toll road (10) For Cikampek via toll road

Total 10

Source: Study Team

c) Trip diversion model

Number of passengers for target system is converted from zone based trips, taking into account of

access impedance factor and comparing its merit with that of alternative transport mode.

In this study, it is carried out by following procedure;

i. comparing the total travel time in case of using target system with that for alternative transport

mode (assuming bus as an alternative system).

ii. if the travel time via target system is less than alternative mode, then zone based trip is diverted

to target system.

iii. as the concept image shown in Figure 3-9, assumes the final destination of system ride to be

Cikarang station and compare the time required respectively between path via target system

and path for alternative mode.

Premise of time comparison is as follows:

Operation speed of target system: 28 km/h (commercial speed)

Average speed for surface transit including bus: 13.8 km/h

Zoning for demand forecast

Estimation of population and employees by zone

Existing data

Population density by

housing type

Estimation of mass transit trips by zone JICA SITRAMP2 Model

Estimation of trip distribution

Existing data

Estimation of number of passengers for

target system

Route plan of target system

Trip diversion model

Data analysis on current traffic

Existing data

3-19

Travel length by alternative transport (bus)

Access length from zone

Travel length by target system

Zone

Additional waiting time : 5 minutes

Based on the above, trip diversion effect is estimated as following;

i. It might not have advantage to use target system within 3 km.

ii. Trip diversion would occur if its access length to target system is within 1km.

Figure 3-9 Image of Trip Diversion

Source: Study Team

(4) Ridership estimation of target system

1) Estimation of population and number of employees by zone

The development for industrial park, including residential estate and other use, is mostly under

progress although a part of development was completed. Therefore the population and number of

employees for objective year should be estimated, taking into consideration of development

progress up to objective year.

a) Population by zone

The future population is estimated by zone, assuming additional population based on the

residential development progress and adding it to existing population.

Regarding the future population development in Cikarang district, this study refers to the housing

estate development master plan prepared by Bekasi government in 2008.

i. Maximum area for residential land use development

The area possible for residential development by zone is determined based on the RDTR (Rencana

Detail Tata Ruang: Detail Spatial Plan) defined in the housing estate development master plan of

Bekasi regency, and the planned development area by respective developer is allocated to relevant

zone subject to the above.

ii. Developed area in objective year

Developed area in objective year is estimated by applying the annual build-up rate obtained from

the past area development result in Jababeka industrial park.

iii. Planned population by residential development

Increased population by residential development is estimated, applying gross population density

by housing type, i.e. low-rise housing, mid & high-rise collective housing, depending on

3-20

respective development scheme by each developer.

iv. Population by zone

Population by zone is calculated by following formula.

Population by zone = existing population × (1 + annual average increase rate for past 5 years) +

additional developed population

Population by zone in objective year is estimated as shown in Table 3-9.

Table 3-9 Population by Zone

(Unit: people/y)

Zone Existing

population

Estimated population in objective year

2019 2030 2048

East Cikarang 79,823 138,000 225,000 393,000

North Cikarang 173,601 250,000 353,000 498,000

South Cikarang 87,969 130,000 187,000 275,000

Central Cikarang 44,644 86,000 149,000 283,000

West Cikarang 168,261 226,000 297,000 366,000

Target area total 554,298 830,000 1,211,000 1,815,000

Source: Study Team

b) Number of employees by zone

Number of employees by zone is estimated by multiplying the area of industrial park (existing and

planned) with the gross unit number of workers per area (ha). The gross unit number is estimated

to be 111 employees/ ha of gross factory area based on the past result in MM2100 industrial town.

Estimated number of employees by zone is shown in Table 3-10.

Table 3-10 Number of Employees by Zone

Zone Area to be

developed (ha)

Number of

employees (people)

East Cikarang 0 0

North Cikarang 1,256 139,400

South Cikarang 1,114 123,700

Central Cikarang 0 0

West Cikarang 805 89,400

Target area total 3,175 352,500

Source: Study Team

2) Mass Transit trips by zone

a) Trip generation by inhabitants

Mass transit trip demand for inhabitants is determined by unit trip generation data estimated in

JICA master plan study (SITRAMP2). Referring to Table 3-11, 0.66 is assumed as the average

mass transit trip unit per one inhabitant, summing up the unit trip generation of middle income

group for bus and railway. Trip generation by zone is estimated by multiplying unit trip rate with

population by zone.

3-21

Table 3-11 Unit Trip by Transport Mode per Inhabitant

Transport mode Income classification

Low Middle High All

Private cars 0.02 0.08 0.42 0.04

Motorbike 0.12 0.27 0.21 0.16

Bus 0.39 0.63 0.63 0.45

Railway 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02

Others 0.06 0.08 0.06 0.06

NMT 0.82 0.56 0.39 0.75

Total 1.42 1.65 1.78 1.48

Note. Unit modal trip per inhabitants in rural area (including Bekasi regency)

Source: JICA SITRAMP2 (The Study on Integrated Transportation Master Plan for

JABODETABEK in the Republic of Indonesia (Phase2), 2004)

b) Trip production by employees

Assumed the modal share of mass transit by employees is 57.9%, referring to the modal share of

mass transit for Bekasi city in commuters census by BPS, following formula is adopted to

estimate trip production by employees.

Trip production and attraction of employees in industrial estate by zone = number of employees

by zone × 2 (round trips) × 0.579

3) Trip distribution

Regarding the present trip distribution in target area, the traffic study by Lippo Cikarang industrial

estate analyzes current vehicle trip distribution in target area. Although the data show vehicle trips

in peak hour through road side interview survey, this study assumes that the trip distribution for

mass transit resembles it.

Based on the traffic study by Lippo Cikarang industrial estate, present trip distribution is shown as

Table 3-12.

Table 3-12 Present Trip Distribution Generated in Cikarang District

(Unit : vehicle/h)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total

1 East Cikarang 0 64 77 0 0 16 16 7 323 48 551

2 North Cikarang 45 0 70 0 0 20 25 6 204 30 400

3 South Cikarang 77 70 146 0 0 10 29 64 396 58 850

4 Central Cikarang 0 0 0 0 0 10 197 0 113 77 397

5 West Cikarang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 Kota Bekasi 16 20 10 10 0 0 0 10 12 2 80

7 Kab. Karawang 16 25 29 210 0 0 0 25 132 19 456

8 Cibarusah 7 6 64 0 0 10 25 0 131 19 262

9 JKT via JI. Toll 375 182 412 136 0 24 97 120 0 2,228 3,574

10 Cikampek via JI. Toll 51 25 57 72 0 3 13 16 2,200 0 2,437

Total 587 392 865 428 0 93 402 248 3,511 2,481 9,007

Source: Kejian lalu lintas pada simpang susun Cibatu 2010

Whether mass transit demand by zone is diverted to target transport system or not depends on its

origin and destination of trips. For the diversion rate of mass transit transport demand by zone,

following assumption is made.

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High diversion rate will be expected when the target system has an advantage such as

shortcut effect for trip interchange pairs.

At initial stage of system operation, diversion rate remains lower due to the uncertainty of

system effectiveness, however it will gradually increase by proving useful performance of

target system.

Based on the assumption above, diversion rate is adopted as shown in Table 3-13.

Table 3-13 Assumption of Trip Diversion Rate by Trip Origin & Destination

Destination

Origin

Internal

zone

(1)~(5)

External zone

(6)Bekasi city

(7)Kab. Karawang

(8)Cibarusah (9)JKT (Toll R)

(10)Cikampek (Toll R)

Internal zone 0% 100% 100% 0% 40%~60% 40%~60% (6) 100% (7) 100% (8) 0% (9) 40%~60% (10) 40%~60%

Source: Study Team

4) Ridership estimation of target transport system

a) Daily passengers volume

Applying a trip diversion model, evaluating influential corridor of target system to zones,

explained in previous section, the zonal trip interchanges are converted to number of

passengers on target system.

Referring to Figure 3-10 which indicates route location of target system and zones, divertible

area of zonal trip is assumed to be corridor with a radius of 1km along the route and diverted

trips are estimated by following formula calculating area proportion.

Number of passengers =Σ{Ti × (Aix/Ai)}

Where;

Ti：Mass transit trips generated in zone i

Aix：Area portion covered by zone i in the corridor of target system

Ai：Area of zone i

Note, however, that the route section within 3 km from starting point of route should be

deducted from above trip divertible area, because zonal trips might not be diverted within

that length of route.

As a result of estimation, daily ridership for target system is obtained by objective year as

shown below.

Table 3-14 Daily Ridership

Year 2019 49,000 passengers/d



Source: Study Team

The demand fluctuation by the fare level is next considerations because the fare elasticity is

not analyzed in this study. (Generally, most of demand is the trip of industrial commuters,

thus the fare elasticity is expected to be low.)

3-23

Figure 3-10 Relationship between Zone and Influential Corridor of Target System

Source: Study Team

b) Maximum sectional passengers volume in peak hour

It is assumed that all of passengers are concentrated at Cikarang station. Then applying peak

traffic rate described in previous section, maximum sectional passengers volume in peak time is

estimated.

Maximum sectional volume in peak hour = daily passengers volume × 10% (refer to (2)c)

The result is shown in Table 3-15.

Table 3-15 Maximum Sectional Volume in Peak Hour

Year 2019 4,900 PPHPD



Source: Study Team

Cikarang Utara

Cikarang Timur

Cikarang Barat

Cikarang Selatan

Cikarang Pusat

3-24

3.2.3 System Selection

(1) System Selection Background

In this study, a route tying Cikarang station and the industrial park/complex city is proposed, and the

installation of a system which functions as feeder transportation which will fulfill a role as public

transportation for areas along the railway. Further, the route will take on roles of securing a

transportation method for workers, redusing road congestion, and by introducing this transportation

system the division between communities resulting from interference of north-south travel by the

current east-west running Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road acting as a border.

Figure 3-11 Proposal Concept

Source: Study Team

The roles required of this transportation system are as follows.

1) Securing of appropriate transport capacity as a feeder transportation system

2) Improvement of public transportation services

3) Reduction of road traffic congestion

4) High punctuality, speediness

5) Securing of safety for passengers

6) Creating harmony with the scenery of the surrounding areas

7) Reduction of noise and other environmental problems

(2) Optimal Transportation System Candidate

Referring to the optimal route proposed in the above-mentioned background and "3.2.1 Route Plan",

the following four types of representative medium capacity systems are compared and examined as

candidates.

APM

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)

LRT

Monorail

Industrial parks/

Complex city

Realization of commuter route to Cikarang Station

・Current Cikarang district public transportation is weak

・Feeder transportation to the railway station is necessary

・At present, the employees of

the industrial complex use

commuter buses via the toll

road

・Congestion on the toll road

has become severe, and the

use of railways as a

transportation method in

place of toll road is

extremely appropriate

Proposal: Introduce a public

transportation organization

which ties together Cikarang

station, industrial parks and the complex city.

3-25

An overview and the characteristics of each system are shown in Table 3-16.

Table 3-16 Main Medium Capacity Transport System Characteristics

System APM BRT LRT Monorail

Operating

System

Guide System Guide rail None,

side wall Rail Track beam

Support Type Rubber tire Rubber tire Steel wheels Rubber tire

Track Dedicated Dedicated or

Shared

Dedicated or

Shared Dedicated

PPHPD 3,000~20,000 1,600~5,000 2,000~7,000 3,000~35,000

Operating

Capacity

Schedule Speed

(km/h) 20~35 15～22 18～30 28~40

Minimum Radius

(m) 30 10～12 30 50

Maximum

Gradient (‰) 60 60 35 60

Distance between

Stations (km) 0.7~1.2 0.3~0.5 0.4~0.8 0.7~1.2

*PPHPD: Passengers Per Hour Per Direction

Source: Study Team

Photo 3-2 External Appearance of Vehicles for Each System

APM BRT

LRT Monorail

Source: Study Team

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(3) Examination Items

For the previously mentioned four systems comparative examinations are carried out beginning with

whether the system has the operational characteristics suitable for the proposed route, and whether

the system can both meet the transportation requirement demands of the route and is economical,

and each system was compared in technical and social aspects. The optimum transportation system

is selected using the following examination items.

Demand and transportation capacity

Right of way (ROW)

Construction cost

Technical characteristics

Social characteristics

(4) System Selection Candidate Comparison

1) Demand and transportation capacity

The expected future demand for the proposed route are in the year of service commencement

(2019) approximately 49,000 passengers/d, approximately 69,000 passengers/d in 2030 and

approximately 88,000 passengers/d in 2048. The traffic volume between stations during peak

times are expected to be 4,900PPHPD in 2019, 6,900 PPHPD in 2030 and 8,800 PPHPD in 2048.

The BRT system can handle the demand of beginning of the service commencement, but it

becomes difficult to handle the demand after that. The transport capacity of the LRT system is also

unacceptable for the demand after 2048 even though it is appropriate for the demand from the

service commencement until 2030. The transport capacity of the APM and monorail systems

covers the demand from the service commencement to future year. However, a large-type

monorail exceeds the demand of the route, so it can be determined that the transport capacity of a

small-type monorail or APM system is more appropriate.

Figure 3-12 Schedule Speed and Transport Capacity

Source: Study Team

PPHPD (Passengers per hour per direction)

Sch

edule

Spee

d (

km

/h)

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MRT(Heavy Rail) Monorail

APM LRT

BRT

3-27

2) Right of way

In the LRT system, there are 2 types of vehicles, a low-floor type vehicle which runs on a

dedicated track, and high floor type vehicle which is like a miniaturized conventional rail car. The

former uses a ground level road space and so needs road widening for most section of the route

considering the system introduction. In addition, it is expected that an early realization of the

project is not easy because the involuntary resettlement occurs for the road widening.

As well as the LRT system, it is not realistic to introduce the BRT system which runs on the

ground level due to the land space.

The APM system and monorail are both suitable systems for a whole elevated line because the

sections of road widening are fewer to built piers on the median strip of the road.

3) Construction cost

The LRT and BRT systems have low installation cost merit, however again this merit cannot be

taken advantage of because a whole elevated line is the premise for this proposal.

4) Technical characteristics

The high floor type vehicle LRT which is like a miniaturized general rail car has a bogie truck, so

compared to other systems it is at a disadvantage in terms of the allowable minimum curve radius.

The BRT system differs from the other systems in that the collision avoidance system and other

safety measures depend upon the skill of the driver leaving this system at a disadvantage in terms

of safety.

The APM system offers a high degree of flexibility in adjusting transport capacity for fluctuations

in demand by allowing for changing of vehicle composition and shortening running intervals. In

addition, it is extremely safe because it allows unmanned operation.

With passenger evacuation at the emergency of elevated transport system, the monorail system

which runs on the track beam requires time to wait a rescue train. On the other hand, passengers of

the APM and LRT systems can evacuate to the nearest station by themselves because of a track of

flat concrete running surface.

5) Social characteristics

For the LRT system, when taking into account the potential for extension into future residential

areas, there is the possibility of the characteristic noise of the steel wheels becoming a problem.

The APM, BRT systems and monorail all use rubber tires and so are superior in terms of noise

generation.

The BRT vehicle which assumes a diesel vehicle same as Transjakarta’s vehicle have a negative

impact on the urban environment in terms of air pollution.

The APM system and low-floor vehicle type LRT have superior design which makes them

systems which can exist in harmony with future development along the areas around the railway.

3-28

(5) Evaluation of System Suitability for Proposed Route

As a result of the above study the APM system is proposed as the optimal transportation system

for the project. The construction cost is particularly significant in the evaluation items, thus the

evaluation is weighted. System selection evaluation results are shown in Table 3-17.

Table 3-17 Evaluation of System Suitability for Proposed Route

System APM BRT LRT Monorail

Demand and Transport capacity 3 0 1 3

ROW 3 1 2 3

Construction Cost 4 6 6 2

Technical Characteristics 3 2 2 2

Social Characteristics 3 1 2 3

comprehensive evaluation 16 - 13 13

Note1) 3:Particularly outstanding for this route. 2: Outstanding for this route 1: Inferior for this

route 0: Difficult for this route

Note2) Evaluation of construction cost is weighted double (score: 0~6).

Source: Study Team

3-29

3.3 Project Plan Overview

3.3.1 Basic Policy about Determination of Project Contents

The basic policy about determination of the project contents is as follows.

(1) Minimization of land acquisition and involuntary resettlement

In the infrastructure improvement in Indonesia, there used to be many cases where involuntary

resettlement pose big problems, and prevent projects from progress. Aiming at early realization of

this project operation, a plan shall be made so that land acquisition and involuntary resettlement may

be minimized. Therefore, right of way of the APM system is made into a road, and a route plan in

which alignment characteristics with a high degree of freedom of the APM system were employed

efficiently is drawn up. Also, a depot shall be assuming the Bekasi Fajar industrial estate are which

is undeveloped areas at present and a plan to adjust with future development planning.

(2) Offer of high mobility services

The APM system of this project is maintained as feeder line traffic which connects Cikarang station

with the complex city and the industrial park. In the area, a plan is made as a whole-elevated-track

structure of high mobility without complicating with road traffic.

(3) Proposal of system of enhanced convenience

In order to plan the APM system's convenience and promotion of utilization of users, a station is

arranged in consideration of the position of customer-attracting facilities, residential areas, factory

entrances, etc., and installed near the crossing so that it is easy to access to the station. Also, the

user-friendly system for weak person concerning traffic, such as not only healthy persons but

children, elderly people, the handicapped, etc., will be proposed.

(4) Proposal of the system in consideration of economical efficiency

In order to improve business feasibility, the system which held down the construction cost as much

as possible will be proposed. It will not be considered superfluous for a station building, but

inexpensive simple design will be planned.

(5) Proposal of scheme with high operation feasibility

PPP scheme with high operation feasibility as operation scheme will be examined and proposed.

Since practical use of soft finance like yen credit is indispensable to early realization of the project,

the covering range will be divided by cases and examined.

3-30

3.3.2 Concept Design

(1) Train Operation Plan

1) Demand

A demand forecast using an operation plan shown in Table 3-18.

Table 3-18 Demand Forecast Results

Forecast Year 2019 2030 2048

No. of passengers per day 49,000 69,000 88,000

Passengers per hour in peak direction (PPHPD) 4,900 6,900 8,800

Source: Study Team

2) Transport Capacity

a) Transport Capacity per Train

The transport capacity per train in 2 car and 4 car formations is shown in Table 3-19 below. The

density of standing passengers was set to 8 people/m2 in accordance with Indonesia's MRT plan.

Table 3-19 Transport Capacity per Train

Train

Formation

Transport Capacity (passengers/train)

Seating Standing Total

2 car formation 36 272 308

4 car formation 72 544 616

Source: Study Team

b) Headway and Transportation Capacity

The train formation and operation interval are examined to secure a transport capacity suitable for

the demand.

The route transport capacity for 2 car and 4 car trains at 3 minutes, 4 minutes, 5 minutes, 6

minutes and 12 minutes headway are shown in Table 3-20.

Table 3-20 Transport Capacity (PPHPD)

Headway (min.) 3 4 5 6 12

Train

Formation

2 car 6,100 4,600 3,600 3,000 1,500

4 car 12,200 9,100 7,300 6,000 3,000

Source: Study Team

3) Operation Conditions

a) Service Hours

In order to fulfill a role as a railway feeder, the service hours of the line will be set 17 hours to

from 5:30AM to 10:30PM based on estimates of the workers transit time.

Among this, the morning peak time will be set to the 2 hours from 6AM to 8AM and the evening

rush to the 2 hours from 5PM to 7PM.

3-31

b) Schedule Speed

The train schedule speed is estimated from the average distance between stations, train positive

acceleration and maximum speed. In addition, the route will be installed elevated and separate

from automobile traffic so road traffic will not have an effect on train speed. There are also no

steep grade sections which will affect scheduled speed.

The route length will be 12km, number of stations 13, and dwell time at stations 20 seconds, with

reference to planar curve caused speed loss, the time for the train to make 1 round trip will be 52

minutes and the schedule speed is calculated at 28km/h.

4) Required Number of Vehicles

Route transport capacity will be expanded in 2024 and 2037 to accommodate future demand. The

number of required vehicles is determined from the train formation and headway based on the

transport capacity needed to be provided at each stage.

The trains will be operated in consists of 2 cars from 2019 to 2037 and consists of 4 cars from

2038 onward. The operation interval and required number of vehicles at each stage is as follows.

Table 3-21 Headway and Required number of vehicles

Year Train

Formation

Headway

(min.)

Required Trains

Required

Number of

Vehicles

Operation Standby Spare Total

~2024 2 car 3.5 16 2 2 40

2025~2037 2 car 2.5 22 2 2 52

2038~ 4 car 4 14 2 1 68

Source: Study Team

3-32

(2) Civil Works Facilities

The main construction standards for the proposed APM system are as shown in the following table

with reference to examples installed overseas, etc. The horizontal and vertical alignments of the

proposed route are shown in Figure 3-14 and 3-15.

Table 3-22 Main Construction Standards for the APM System

Item Specifications

Structure gauge See Figure 3-13

Curve radius Main line: R = 50m or more

Side line: R = 30m or more

Branch: R = 30m or more

Station sections: R = 300m or more

Gradient Main line: 60‰ or less

Depot: 10‰ or less

Track spacing 4.0m or more

Secure spacing which does not obstruct the structure gauge

of upper and lower lines.

Platform Platform length: 30m (consist length 24m+clearance 5m)

Platform width: Island platform = 3m or more

: Separate platform = 2m or more

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-13 Structure Gauge and Vehicle Gauge

Source: Study Team

Structure Gauge

Vehicle Gauge

3402

3270

2747

2713

Running Surface

4004

3676

3-33

Figure 3-14 Horizontal Alignment

Source: Study Team

500m

Cikarang

station

Proposed site

for depot

No.1

No.2

No.3

No.4

No.5 No.6 No.7

No.8

No.9

No.10

No.11

No.12

No.13

Source: Study Team

3-34

Figure 3-15 Vertical Alignment

Source: Study Team

3-35

1) Civil Engineering Structures

a) Super Structure

A portion of the super structure is based on 30m length PC box girders standard for which there

are previous local examples. Box girders have high torsional stiffness, making them suitable for

sections with sharp curves. In addition, for trapezoidal box girders the box base width can be

shortened so they are excellent for preserving scenery. Steel plate deck girders will be used for the

large span sections which cross the toll road.

b) Supports

Supports will be constructed in the median of the road. The bottom of the elevated structure will

be maintained 5.5m or more above the road. The structure type will generally be RC or steel T

supports.

c) Other

During the detailed design, local detailed surveying, geological surveys and underground

installation surveys will be required. For locations where the road median width is narrow and

supports cannot be constructed, alternate plans will be examined based on survey results. In

addition, the foundation type will be examined based on geological surveys.

2) Typical Cross Section

Figure 3-16 Cross Section of Supports Constructed on Greenbelt

Source: Study Team

3-36

3) Tracks

a) Running Surface

A side guidance method and central guidance method can be considered for the guidance method

for the APM system vehicles.

From a technical standpoint neither of the 2 methods is superior or inferior, however in general for

the side guidance method a side wall is installed, so it is superior in terms of anti-noise measures

and other rail-side environmental considerations.

For the floor structure an open floor structure or closed floor structure can be considered. The

closed floor type is recommended because it provides passengers with a greater sense of security,

can be used as an evacuation route for the running route and also prevents debris from falling to

the road below the tracks.

The proposed system will be side guidance type and closed floor type.

b) Guide Rail

The guide rails are the structural elements that guide the trains and take lateral loads. Guide rails

are installed on both sides of the guideway throughout the system and guide trains laterally via

vehicle-mounted guide wheels. The guide rail components include the guide rail, the base plates

and the mounting hardware. Standard H-shaped hot-dipped galvanized steel beams are used for

the guide rails.

c) Switches

The switching system consists of fixed and moveable U-channel entrapment blades attached to

both sides of the guideway, and powered by an electro-mechanical railroad-type switch machine

and connecting rods.

Trains are guided to the designated guideway by guiding switch wheels on the train with the

moveable blade. Switches are controlled by ATC system, particularly protected by ATP subsystem,

which provides safe train operation.

Photo 3-3 Switches Overview (Sample)

Source: Study Team

d) Overtravel Buffers

An oil damped hydraulic buffer is provided and installed at every guideway terminus. The purpose

of the buffer is to ensure the trains will be brought to a safe and controlled stop in the unlikely

event that they overrun the designated stopping position.

3-37

4) Station Plan

a) Basic Policy

The stations and station facilities for the proposed APM system are planned with reference to the

elementals shown in the following table.

Table 3-23 Station Plan Basic Policy

Item Summary

Passenger Service 1) Distance between stations shall be approximately 1km.

2) At Cikarang station, the station shall be arranged so that APM system can be

transferred to regardless of whether travelling outbound or inbound from the

railway.

3) In locations with large scale customer attracting facilities, the station should

be established near the facilities.

4) For stations which tie to feeders via Angkots etc., stopping zones for the

Angkots shall be designed to be located beneath the station buildings.

Alignment

Conditions

1) Station buildings shall in principle be situated in locations with no curved

lines in the alignment.

2) Station buildings (including branch sections where the branch is located

next to the station building) shall be located in locations with no longitudinal

gradients.

Future Plan 1) The terminal station for the industrial park shall be located with

consideration for future expansion.

Operation

Management

1) Stations shall be located close to positions where approach tracks connect to

the main line to make entrance and exit to the depot smooth.

Source: Study Team

b) Platform

The representative types for the platform are the island platform and the separate platform and

overviews of each are shown in the table below.

The platform type selection is not affected by the number of station users, so in this study the type

is selected as the island platform or the separate platform for each station based on the station's

usage characteristics and function.

Stations which connect with Cikarang station of the Java main line shall use the separate type

based on the alignment conditions.

3-38

Table 3-24 Platform Type Comparison

Type Island Platform Separate Platform

Outline

Drawing

Station

Overall

Width

Station overall width is narrower than

with the separate platform.

Station overall width is wider than with

the island platform.

Passenger

Service on

Platform

Because there is only a single platform,

customers on both inbound and outbound

lines can be provided service on the same

platform. When placing station staff, the

same staff can handle both directions.

Because the platforms are separate for

the different directions, passenger service

must be handled separately.

Railway

Alignment

Curved line sections will be inserted

between lines to widen the width just

before and after the station.

There is no need for expansion between

lines before and after the station so the

line shape will be straight making for

good lines of sight.

Elevating

Facilities

Because inbound and outbound

passengers are all processes on one

platform, stairs, elevators and other

elevating facilities can be shared.

Stairs, elevators and other elevating

facilities are required separate for each

platform.

Facility

Costs

Costs for stairs, elevators and other

elevating facilities are generally smaller

than for the separate platform.

Costs for stairs, escalators and other

elevating facilities are generally larger

than for the island platform.

Other

Very convenient for eliminating worries

about making a mistake about the order

of departing trains at terminal stations

users .

Allows for platform extension and

establishment of new stations after

commencement of operation without

modifying tracks.

Source: Study Team

c) Station Structures and Facilities

Table 3-25 Station Structures and Facilities

Item Summary

Basic Structure The station building will be installed elevated on supports in the

space above the road.

Platform Length Platform effective length shall be 12m per car, so a length which

allows for operation of 2 car trains will be 30m (12m (vehicle

length)×2 cars (no. of vehicles in 1 train)+5m (clearance)).

Platform Door Platform doors shall be installed on the platform to ensure user

safety.

Elevator Elevators shall be installed at all stations as barrier free measures.

AFC Fare collection shall be handled by automatic ticket vending

machines and automatic gates.

Source: Study Team

3-39

The station location based on the criteria set above is shown in Figure 3-17.

Figure 3-17 Station Location

Source: Study Team

Legend

Station：

Station No.1

Station No.13

MM2100

Industrial Town

Jababeka

Industrial Park

0 1 2 km

3-40

d) Station Location

Table 3-26 shows each station position and station facilities with platform type. The track layout is

shown in Figure 3-18.

Table 3-26 Station Location

St. Km

Distance

between

Stations

(m)

Platform Type Facilities around Stations

No.1

0k000m

730 Dead end/ Separate

Shall radiate out from Cikarang station.

After the completion of the currently in

progress double-double tracking of Java

main line project, the commuter line

eastern end terminal will be the station.

No.2 0k730m Island

Has a shopping center and local bazaar

and is very lively.

750

No.3 1k480m Island

Positioned at entrance of industrial park.

950

No.4 2k430m Island

Positioned at industrial park

intersection.

940

No.5 3k370m Island


intersection.

830

No.6 4k200m Island


intersection.

1150

No.7 5k350m Island


intersection.

1100

No.8 6k450m Island

Has a plan for future development of

commercial complex.

Has a plan for a road to toll road

interchange. 1100

No.9 7k450m Island

Has a plan for future development of

commercial complex.

1100

No.10 8k550m Island

Has a plan for toll road interchange.

Shall serve as a node for highway buses.

Has a plan for a surrounding complex

city. 1100

No.11 9k650m Island

Has a plan for surrounding industrial

complex.

Shall be a transfer station for future

extensions. 1100

No.12 10k750m Island

Shall be positioned at entrance

intersection to MM2100 industrial town

1200 No.13 11k950m Island

Shall be positioned at intersection close

to IT center in MM2100 industrial town.

Source: Study Team

3-41

Figure 3-18 Track Layout Sketch

Source: Study Team

e) Station Facilities

Photo 3-4 Station Facilities

Elevated station (Image)

Lifting equipment to the concourse level

(Image) Escalators, stairs

Lifting equipment to the concourse level

(Image) Elevator

Automatic ticket vending (Image)

Automatic ticket gate (Image)

Platform screen door (Image)

Source: Study Team

3-42

f) Connection with Cikarang Station of Java Line

Now, the Cikarang station of the Java main line has a plan which becomes a terminal station by

implementation of "railway electrification and double-double tracking of Java main line project".

In this proposal, it is considered be appropriate to carry out a plan as shown in the following

figure in consideration of connectivity with Cikarang station and the available land space.

Figure 3-19 Connection with Cikarang Station of Java Main Line

(Cross-Section View)

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-20 Connection with Cikarang Station of Java Main Line

(Plan View)

Source: Study Team

Cikarang station for APM

3-43

g) Typical Station

The typical station is elevated with island type over road. The proposed plans for typical station

are as follows.

Figure 3-21 Typical Station (Plan View)

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-22 Typical Station (Side View)

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-23 Typical Station (Cross-Section View)

Source: Study Team

Island Platform

Sidewalk

Sidewalk

Center of Track

Concourse

5.5m

or more

3-44

5) Bill of Quantity for Civil Structures

The bill of quantity for main line structures, station facilities, guideway rails, switches and a

depot is shown in Table 3-27.

Table 3-27 Bill of Quantity

Source: Study Team

Structures Items Unit Quantity

Main Line

PC-BOX Girder beams 382

RC pier girders 400

Steel Box Girder (2 spans) girders 1

Station Typical Station stations 10

Terminal and Connecting Station stations 3

Guideway

Rail

Main Line m 24,000

Depot m 3,900

Switches Main Line set 11

Depot set 22

Depot

Foundation Improvement (Cement) 103× m

3 144

Building and

Facility

OCC m2 8,400

Maintenance Facility m2 3,000

Road and Planting, etc. set 1

3-45

(3) E&M System

1) Power Distribution System (PDS)

a) Power Distribution Equipment

The power for Cikarang's APM system can be provided from the public power company PT PLN

substation (SS) nearby. In addition, the private power company PT Cikarang Listrindo has a

1,000MW class power plant (PP) along the Jababeka industrial park main line and it has been

determined that power could also be provided from here.

In Figure 3-24 the positions of the substation and power plant in the area of the APM system are

shown, and Table 3-28 shows the transformation capacity for each.

Figure 3-24 Position of Substation and Power Plants in the Area around APM System

Source: Study Team

Table 3-28 Surrounding Substation Capacity

No. Substation Capacity

1 Jababeka 60MW×3unit

2 Lippo 60MW×3unit

3 Cibatu 60MW×2unit

Source: Study Team

At each of PT PLN's substations, AC150kV is received from overhead high voltage power

transmission lines and stepped down to AC20kV. For the APM power distribution system, power

is supplied from here to APM to the Jakabeka industrial park and Lippo Cikarang industrial estate

APM receiving substations via the main line and auxiliary line. From these receiving substations

AC20kV is distributed to each feeding substation and station electrical room in a 2 systems

interconnection method.

At the feeding substations, AC20kV is rectified to DC750V and then provided as power for APM

operation to the depot along the main line.

Power for annex equipment is distributed to on-site equipment after the AC20kV received by the

power rooms of each station and depot is stepped down to AC400V/200V by on premises

transformers.

Listrindo PP

PLT SS (Jababeka)

PLT SS (Cibatu) PLT SS (Lippo)

3-46

Figure 3-25 Power System Diagram of Cikarang APM System

Source: Study Team

b) Traction Power

Each substation is arranged in a double ring redundant configuration. There are two fully rated

heavy duty traction transformers capable of continuous operation for the proposed design. The

input switchgear arrangement permits either transformer to be connected to either primary feed,

thereby providing 100% redundancy. These are also interlocked to prevent parallel operation of

the transformers. The output DC750V breaker prevents back feeding of the transformer by the

DC750V bus. With this configuration, no single-point failure can cause a prolonged interruption

of traction power to the power rails.

MOFMOF

MOFMOF

AC20kV from PT PLN(Jababeka)

AC20kV from PT PLN(Lippo)

AC20kV

StaionRectifier　(kVA)Auxiliary Power (kVA)

No.12,000×21,600×2

No.2

630×2

No.32,000×2630×2

No.4

630×2

No.52,000×2630×2

No6

630×2

No.72,000×2630×2

No.8

630×2

Depot2,000×2

1,600×2＋2,000

No.92,000×2630×2

No.10

630×2

No.112,000×2630×2

No.12

630×2

No.132,000×2630×2

StaionRectifier　(kVA)Auxiliary Power (kVA)

(MOF:Metering Out Fit)

3-47

c) Backup Power Supply

The Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) provides power in the event that primary power is not

available.

The UPS provides backup power for the following systems:

ATC system including central control facility

PDS control power

Communications equipment (CCTV, public address, emergency phone, radio, dynamic

sign)

Emergency lighting

Safety and security system

Data communication, transmission system

Switch machines

The UPS equipment uses sealed gel cell batteries. AC input is the power source to charge the

batteries. A solid state inverter converts the battery power to AC output.

The performance of the UPS is continually monitored and alarms are annunciated if necessary.

d) Power Rail

Traction power is supplied to the vehicle through positive and negative power rails installed along

the guideway. See Photo 3-5 for sample power rail installation from other APM project.

Propulsion power cables connect each segment of the power rails on the guideway to the DC750V

bus via a secondary circuit breaker. The traction power is collected by two sets of vehicle-borne

power collectors from two rigid, side contact power rails mounted on the guideway.

The power rails consist of the followings:

Power rails with aluminium and stainless steel composite construction

Mounting devices to clamp the power rails in both the vertical and lateral directions and to

resist the vehicle dynamic loads and forces generated during short circuits

Mounting bracket and the anchoring mechanism

Thermal expansion joints

End approaches

Photo 3-5 Power Rail (Sample)

Source: Study Team

3-48

2) Automatic Train Control (ATC) System

a) Overview

Cikarang APM system encompasses three major second-tier subsystems under the

communications based train control (CBTC):

Automatic train protection (ATP) subsystem, which provides all safety-critical control

functions.

Automatic train operation (ATO) subsystem, which provides all automatic-mode train

operations functions, subject to the constraints imposed by the ATP.

Automatic train supervision (ATS) subsystem, which monitors system status and overall

operation, manages the system communications interface, handles system alarms, data

recording and logging function, and provides human-machine interface of central control.

Human interface for ATC system is provided in central control facility (CCF), where the operators

can monitor and control the system through ATS. CCF also provides human interface for

communication system and PDS.

Photo 3-6 Central Control Facility (Sample)

Source: Study Team

b) ATP Subsystem

ATP subsystem includes the following functions.

Presence Detection

Separation Assurance

Unintentional Motion Detection

Overspeed Protection

Overtravel Protection

Parted Consist Protection

Lost Signal Protection

Zero Speed Detection

Unscheduled Door Opening Protection

Door Control Protection Interlocks

Departure Interlocks

Direction Reversal Interlocks

Propulsion and Braking Interlocks

Guideway Switch Interlocks

3-49

ATP functions have precedence over both the ATO and ATS functions.

c) ATO Subsystem

ATO subsystem includes the following functions.

Motion Control

Programmed Station Stop

Door and Dwell-Time Control

d) ATS Subsystem

ATS subsystem includes the following functions.

Status and Performance Monitoring

Performance Control and Override

3) Communication System

a) Overview

The communication system consists of a wide array of communications devices, including:

Public Address

Vehicle Voice and Communications

Video Surveillance

Radio Communications

Data Transmissions

b) Public Address Subsystem

The public address subsystem is provided at all stations. It enables the central control operator to

make direct announcements and initiate automatic, digitally pre-recorded announcements to any

selected stations. The pre-recorded messages are playable either repetitively or selectively.

c) Vehicle Voice Communication Subsystem

A full-duplex communications subsystem is provided to permit two-way voice communications

between central control facility and each train.

Activation (and termination once established) of the two-way voice link is only possible from

central control facility. Each passenger-initiated communication request from a vehicle is tagged

with the vehicle identification number, and automatically displayed at the central control facility.

The display also shows any queue of such communication requests.

The central control operator is able to activate this link upon receiving an indication of the

passenger-initiated communication request at the central control, or at any time the central control

operator deems it necessary to receive communications from a vehicle.

A train public address subsystem is provided for the central control operator to make direct live

announcements and to initiate pre-recorded announcements, and for the ATS subsystem to make

pre-recorded announcements on any selected trains.

d) Video Surveillance Subsystem

CCTV system is provided for monitoring passengers and vehicle doors at platform of all stations,

M&SF vehicle storage areas in the system. This system consists of the cameras, monitors, video

3-50

recorders, controller, switching / sequencing hardware and fiber and coaxial cable network.

All the video data are transmitted to central control through wayside cable for monitoring at

central control facility.

e) Radio Communication Subsystem

A half-duplex radio system provides operations and maintenance personnel within and along the

system with communication means with central control.

f) Data Transmission Subsystem

Transmission subsystem transmits audio, visual and data for various communication subsystems.

The transmission link is configured so that a single point failure will not disrupt the transmission

subsystem by switching to the alternative path upon failure.

(4) Vehicle

1) General

The vehicle is a 2-car married-type vehicle. All vehicles are identical and can be operated on the

entire guideway, including the option line. Although a single married-pair vehicle will be operated

as a train, multiple vehicles can be coupled together using automatic couplers on both ends of

vehicles for emergency rescue case. See Photo 3-7 for the overview of a sample vehicle from

other APM project.

The car body is a welded design with aluminium alloy extrusions and panels in order to reduce

weight and minimize energy consumption. The exterior appearance is modern with clean-lines and

will incorporate an aerodynamic end cap at each vehicle end.

These production vehicles have been designed to install a sense of confidence in the passengers

and convey an image consistent with this technology and its design. The vehicle has smooth lines,

a unique diamond shape and an entirely modern interior.

Photo 3-7 APM Vehicle (Sample)

Source: Study Team

The vehicles are normally operated in automatic mode without drivers. The vehicle can also be

operated by a driver in manual mode.

3-51

2) Vehicle Type and Specifications

a) Key parameters

The key parameters and configuration for the vehicle are shown in Tables 3-29 and Figure 3-26.

Table 3-29 Key Parameters

Configuration 2-Car Vehicle (Married Pair)

Length Approx.24 m

Width Approx.2.7 m

Height Approx.3.6 m

Weight (without passengers) 34 t

Weight (maximum) 52.5 t

Capacity (@ 8persons/m2) 308 passengers

Maximum Operation Speed 80 km/h

Source: Study Team

b) On-Board Command, Control and Communication System

Following on-board command, control and communication system equipment is installed.

ATP/ATO controller

Vehicle communication Controller

Dynamic sign

Speaker

Intercom

Manual operation panel

Etc.

3-52

Figure 3-26 Vehicle Overview

Source: Study Team

3-53

(5) Depot Plan

1) Depot Overview

The APM system depot shall have vehicle stabling facilities, vehicle and system maintenance

management facilities and general administration office installed in order for the safe operation

and maintenance management of the APM system.

2) Depot Arrangement

Figure 3-27 Depot Location

Source: Study Team

On the proposed route, the area of the Bekasi Fajar industrial estate where is planned site is only

undeveloped. Therefore, the depot location will be proposed in the Bekasi Fajar industrial estate

area and arranged with the future estate plans.

3) Depot Area

The facilities required for the initial stages of the APM system are installed in the depot however,

it is being planned for an area which can accommodate the number of vehicles expected for future

expansion in the future final stages of the APM system.

The depot area is planned at length 400m, width 180m, area 7.20 ha matching the industrial park

lot.

4) Depot Functions

The main functions of the depot are as follows.

a) Stabling facility: stabling track for vehicles outside of APM system operating times.

b) Inspection and maintenance facility: Facility for inspection and maintenance of APM system

vehicles.

0 1 2 km

Depot

3-54

c) General control building: General administration office which includes a system operation

office and operation control room.

d) Substation: For provision of a power source for main line and depot operating power, other

various power and lighting.

e) Maintenance vehicle stabling track: Stabling track for maintenance vehicles which carry out

route, structure and electrical facility inspections and maintenance.

f) Vehicle washing facility: Vehicle cleaning and vehicle washing facility

g) Other: Drainage treatment facilities, warehousing, oil storage, etc.

5) Depot Layout

The APM system track will be installed aboveground inside the depot. The stabling track and

inspection and maintenance track are kept level for stopping and parking of vehicles and tracks

are straight for inspection of vehicles.

The depot layout is shown in Figure 3-28.

Figure 3-28 Depot Layout

Source: Study Team

6) Function and Roles of Each Track

a) Train ready / receiving track (2 tracks)

The approach track will be a track separate from the main line which connects to the depot. The

entrance to the depot shall be a downgrade from ground level. The maximum gradient for the

approach track shall be 60‰. The approach track shall have multiple tracks for safety purposes.

b) Departure test track (2 tracks)

A departure inspection track will be located on a straight, flat section of track which connects to

the approach track for inspections of vehicles during departure.

c) Stabling Track (8 tracks)

A stabling track will be installed so that APM system vehicles can be stabled in the depot. In the

initial stages a 4 track stable track will be installed with 4 additional tracks to be installed in the

390000

170000

Washer Track

Shunting Track

Test Track

Maintenance Track

Maintenance Vehicle Track

Workshop

Departure Test Track

Maintenance Bldg.

Future Extension

Stabling Track

3-55

future when there is an increased need due to an increased number of vehicles.

Other than the stabling track, considerations will be made for stabling vehicles on the following

tracks as well.

Light maintenance track (2 tracks) -8 trains (16 cars)

Heavy maintenance track (1 track) -4 trains (8 cars)

Unschedule maintenance track (1 track) -2 trains (4 cars)

Departure test track (2 tracks) -4 trains (8 cars)

d) Washer track (1 track)

A vehicle washing machine will be installed on the washer track and used to wash vehicles.

Vehicle interior cleaning will be carried out on the stabling track.

e) Test Track (1 track)

The periphery of the depot will be used for test runs of vehicles after maintenance. The length

shall be approximately 350m.

f) Shunting track

Shunting tracks will be installed to allow for movement of vehicles within the depot. Vehicles

shall not be stabled on these tracks.

g) Stabling track for maintenance vehicles (1 track)

A track for stabling maintenance vehicles (construction vehicles) which carry out maintenance and

management of tracks and the APM system will be installed.

7) Vehicle Stabling Plan

The depot interior vehicle stabling plan is shown in Figure 3-29.

Figure 3-29 Vehicle Stabling Plan

Source: Study Team

将来計画

王

390000

170000

Future Extension

3-56

8) Repair Plant Inspection and Maintenance Track and Inspection and Maintenance Frequency

a) Light maintenance track (2 tracks)

Track for carrying out train inspections (every 3 days), monthly inspections (every 3 months) and

other daily maintenance.

b) Heavy maintenance track (1 track)

Track for carrying out heavy overhauls (every year, every 3 years) and general overhauls (every 6

years).

c) Unschedule maintenance track (1 track)

Track for carrying out repair and inspection of parts of vehicles or entire vehicles at any time as

needed in the event of the following.

When vehicles are manufactured or purchased.

When a crash or large-scale accident occurs.

When large-scale reconstruction or repair is carried out.

9) Depot Inspection Facilities

Typical main tool and equipment are shown in Table 3-30.

Table 3-30 Typical Main Tool and Equipment

No. Description Quantity

1 Train Washer 1

2 Lifting Jacks, 6 t 4 sets

3 Bogie Stand 8

4 Body Stand 4 sets

5 Gantry Crane 1

6 Umbilical Power Cable (Stinger) 8 sets

7 Wheel Tire Changer 1

8 Forklift 2

9 Mobile Lift Table 2

Source: Study Team

10) General Control Building

An operation control center (OCC) which carries out operation management of vehicles on all

APM system lines and within the depot and various offices for management and maintenance

management division and other required facilities.

11) Other Facilities

1) Receiving substation

2) Warehouse, oil storage

3) Drainage treatment facility

4) Emergency garage

5) Other

12) Depot Operation Mode

Operation is carried out automatically for vehicles in the depot stabling track zone, operation is

carried out by drivers for departure from and arrival to inspection and repair plants. Inside

3-57

inspection and repair plants power is provided through the installed power cables (stingers).

(6) Operation Planning

1) Operation Organization

Since the operation organization of Cikarang APM serves as the first APM system introduction in

Indonesia, it will be set up referencing the organization system of the APM system with

performances. APM operation organization proposal based on the example in Japan is shown in

Figure 3-30.

Figure 3-30 Proposed Organization

Source: Study Team

2) Required Number of Staff

Since the operation organization of Cikarang APM serves as the first APM system introduction in

Indonesia, it will be set up referencing the operation organization of the APM system with

performances. APM operation organization proposal based on the example in Japan is shown in

Table 3-31.

Table 3-31 Required Number of Staff

Duty Number of Staff Note

Board Member 3 15% of Head Office

Staff

Head

Office

GA 4 -

Operation 3 -

Engineering 2 -

E. Engineer’s 2 -

Rolling Stock 3 -

Sub Total 14 15% of Field Operation

Field

Operation

Engineering 11 0.9 people per 1 operation km

E. Engineer’s 10 0.8 people per 1 operation km

Rolling Stock 10 0.25 people per 1 car

Station Staff 55 4.2 people per a station

Train Operation 10 3(on duty)×2.5(shift)×1.3(spare)

Sub Total 96 -

Total 113 -

Source: Study Team

3) Education and training

General Affairs Dept. Board Member

Maintenance Dept.

Operation Dept.

General Affairs Div.

Accounting Div.

Engineering Div.

E Engineer’g Div.

Rolling Stock Div.

Train Operation Div.

Station Div.

3-58

a) Since it is the first time for Indonesia to introduce the APM system, education and training

of the personnel is indispensable.

b) It is necessary to carry out education and training of the personnel before commencement of

operation for smooth operating management. Also, it is necessary to create an education and

training manual before education and training implementation.

c) Instructors shall be about 5 to 10 foreigners of operating companies with track records.

After commencement of operation the instructors shall continue the personnel's education

and training as the management, and maintain safe and smooth management organization.

d) The personnel strive for improvement in technologic abilities, receiving instructor's

education at the workplace (OJT) from the preparatory step before commencement of

operation, and get opportunities to receive more practical education and training.

Chapter 4

Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts

4-1

4.1 Analysis on Present Environmental and Social Status

4.1.1 Business Characteristics

In this project, it is planned to introduce a APM system in Cikarang district, which is located

approximate 30km east of the Jakarta metropolitan region in Indonesia. This system will connect

Cikarang station, Jababeka industrial park and the MM2100 industrial town, along with future

capacity increases in commuter transportation of the Java main line.

With this APM system, noise and vibration levels and exhaust gas emissions are low. This system is

an environmentally friendly public transportation system since its impact on the environment is

small, compared with that of automobiles.

In particular, the following advantages can be achieved by the introduction of this APM system.

• Improvement of convenience for visitors/commuters to the introduced area

• Savings in commuting time and a reduction in traffic delays

• Reduction of greenhouse gases produced by automobiles with the conversion from buses, cars,

motorcycles to the APM system

• Regional economic revitalization

• Resolution of road congestion and a reduction of traffic accidents

• Direct and indirect job creation

4.1.2 Present Status of the Project Area

Road traffic conditions in the Cikarang district are quite poor, causing chronic traffic congestion

throughout the city. Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road passes east to west through almost the center of

Cikarang district. At present, the district is divided into north and south regions by this road. Roads

running across this toll road are very few and enough width is not secured. At present, JICA is

implementing a local road improvement plan with the aim of smoothing traffic flow. However, the

development of industrial parks has been promoted at the same time, and in addition, the

development of complex city has also been promoted as a future plan. This situation is causing a

concentration of commuters and logistics into this district. Considering this situation, it seems

difficult to resolve traffic congestion only by road improvement.

The planned route of the APM system has its railhead at Cikarang station of the Java main line

where double-double track development and electrification is expected in the future, and reaches the

MM2100 industrial town through the Jababeka industrial park and Bekasi Fajar industrial estate. Its

length is approximately 12km. Relatively low-rise housing and small scale commercial facilities are

located between Cikarang station and the Jababeka industrial park. On the other hand, large scale

factories are concentrated in the Jababeka industrial park and MM2100 industrial town. Bekasi Fajar

district, located between the Jababeka industrial park and MM2100 industrial town, south of the toll

road, is currently undeveloped but is expected to be developed with industrial parks and commercial

facilities in the future.

4.1.3 Natural Environment

(1) Air Pollution

With Cikarang district, passenger vehicles and large size freight vehicles have rapidly increased the

result of population growth and industrial park development in recent years. Air pollution caused by

exhaust gas emissions from these increasing vehicles is becoming more serious year by year. Leaded

gasoline is generally used for fuel and old vehicles without emission controls are often used.

Considering this situation, it is a concern that exhaust gasses from such vehicles may cause health

hazards.

4-2

(2) Noise/Vibration

As with air pollution, noise and vibration from the concentration of vehicle traffic also causes

significant impacts on the urban environment.

(3) Waste Treatment

Waste treatment is becoming a serious environmental problem in the Jakarta metropolitan region

including at the project site. Wastes are categorized into hazardous wastes and other wastes in

Indonesia. Other wastes are treated by landfilling or incineration. But at landfill areas, wastes are

generally just stored without a soil covering. Such wastes leach into neighboring areas and

sometimes cause water pollution indirectly.

(4) Topography/Geological Features

The project area is of relatively flat terrain. Geologically it features soft ground of clay and silt layers,

which in turn mainly consist of sand and conglomerate.

4.1.4 Social Environment

(1) Population

Table 4-1 shows the population surrounding the project area. The planned route passes the relatively

large population areas of North Cikarang, South Cikarang and West Cikarang.

Table 4-1 Population and Population Density by District

District Population

(person) Area (km

2)

Population Density

(person/km2)

East Cikarang 79,823 51 1,565

North Cikarang 173,601 43 4,037

South Cikarang 87,969 52 1,691

Central Cikarang 44,644 48 930

West Cikarang 168,261 54 3,116

Total 554,298 248 2,235

Source: Study Team

(2) Land Use

In the project area, existing small residences and a shopping mall are located nearby Cikarang station.

On the other hand, large scale industrial parks are located in southern area. On the northern side of

Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, the Jababeka Industrial park is located and on the southern side, across

the toll road, the MM2100 industrial town is located. From east of the Jababeka industrial park to the

Deltamas city area, located southeast of the industrial park, is the area under development as a

complex city.

4.1.5 Future Forecast (case without implementation of this project)

One of the objectives of this project is urban environment protection by emission control to be

achieved by a modal shift commuters to the industrial parks, visitors to the complex facilities and

people moving within the district have used conventional transportation such as buses, vehicles,

motorcycles etc.

In case of no implementation of this project, traffic flows in and out of the district will increase by

the development of industrial parks and complex cities. The road traffic situation is estimated to

become more serious. Difficult road traffic conditions will cause difficulty in maintaining smooth

4-3

urban functions. Finally, economic activities will be also obstructed. In this district, many Japanese

companies are conducting business. If the road traffic congestion becomes serious, such companies

will also be negatively affected. In order to avoid negative impacts on industrial activities and secure

a convenient civic life, a rail transport system is required to be introduced rather than a road based

system.

4-4

4.2 Environmental Improvement Effect by the Project

The modal shift of passengers from using buses, vehicles and motorcycles to the APM system can be

expected by introduction of the APM system in Cikarang district. In this section, reduction levels of

greenhouse gas is reviewed as the environmental improvement to be achieved by the implementation

of the project.

4.2.1 Method of Review

In order to quantitatively assess the effect of the project on global warming, carbon dioxide (CO2),

which has been selected from a number of greenhouse gases, is focused on. CO2 reduction is

calculated based on reduced vehicle transportation by the introduction of the APM system. On the

other hand, electricity shall be used for operation of the APM system and CO2 is also produced

during the electricity generation process. Therefore it is necessary that such CO2 production be

deducted from CO2 reduction by the modal shift from vehicle transportation to the APM system as a

calculation of total reduction to be achieved by the project. CO2 reduction from such a calculation

shall be used for the assessment of the effect of this project on global warming.

4.2.2 Traffic Volume Converted from Automobiles to the APM System

Based on the estimation result of the future demand of the APM system reviewed in “Chapter 3,

3.2.2 Demand Forecast”, the converted traffic volume from bus to the APM system is shown in

Table 4-2. Average trip distance is assumed as 8km (set to 2/3 of whole length of 12km), annual

working days are assumed as 330 days and average bus passengers are assumed as 30

persons/vehicle.

Table 4-2 Converted and Reduced Volume of Bus traffic

Year Passengers

（person/d）

Converted Volume

(passenger-km/y)

Reduced Volume

(vehicle-km/y)

2019 42,000 110,880,000 3,696,000

2030 65,000 171,600,000 5,720,000

2048 87,000 229,680,000 7,656,000

Source: Study Team

4.2.3 CO2 Reduction

(1) Reduction in CO2 emissions of the bus

CO2 reduction of the bus is calculated by the following formula. The calculation results are show in

Table 4-3.

CO2 reduction = total distance reduction (vehicle-km) ÷ Fuel consumption rate (km/liter/vehicle) ×

CO2 emission factor

• Fuel consumption rate (km/liter/vehicle): 3.45 (Source: Statistical Yearbook of Motor Vehicle

Transport 2008 (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism))

• CO2 emission factor of diesel oil (kg CO2/liter): 2.624 (Source: Guidelines for Calculating

Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Business (Ministry of the Environment))

4-5

Table 4-3 CO2 Reduction Volume of the Bus

(Unit: t- CO2/y)

Year CO2

2019 2,811

~2030 42,966

~2048 134,523

Source: Study Team

(2) CO2 Emissions by Operation of the APM System

CO2 emission by operation of the APM system is calculated by the following formula as shown in

Table 4-4.

CO2 emission by operation of the APM system = Electricity consumption per passenger-km × annual

traffic volume (passenger-km) × CO2 emissions basic unit

• Electricity consumption per passenger-km (kWh/passenger-km): 0.0175 (Source: National

Traffic Safety and Environment Laboratory)

• CO2 emissions basic unit (kg-CO2kWh): 0.808

Table 4-4 CO2 Reduction Volume of the APM system

(Unit: t- CO2/y)

Year Emission Volume

2019 1,568

~2030 23,964

~2048 58,008

Source: Study Team

*) Indonesia’s annual energy production: 112,926GWh (ENERGY BALANCES OF NON-OECD

COUNTRIES 2005 Edition)

Indonesia’s fossil fuel consumption for power generation (crude oil conversion kilotonne): Coal

14,143, Petroleum 7,033, Natural gas 4,635 (Revised 1996 IPCC Guideline)

Base unit of calorific value (Terajoule/kilotonne): 42.62 (Revised 1996 IPCC Guideline)

Carbon emissions per unit calorific value (t-C/Terajoule): Coal 25.8, Petroleum 21.1, Natural gas

15.3 (Revised 1996 IPCC Guideline)

CO2 conversion factor (molar weight): 44/12

CO2 emissions basic unit (kg-CO2kWh): 0.808

As shown above, CO2 reduction by this project is estimated as 1,243 t-CO2/y in the year 2019,

19,002 t-CO2/y until the year 2030 and 76,515 t-CO2/y until the year 2048. This means that this

project is regarded as contributing to a reduction in greenhouse gases.

4.2.4 Possibility to Apply CDM

Since 1999, the Ministry of the Environment has implemented the supporting program for

“Pre-Feasibility Study (Pre-F/S) to consider/assess the potential business to apply CDM or JI

schemes”. But studies on rail transport systems such as the APM system had not been conducted

until 2010. In the transportation sector, such schemes have been applied to improvement of vehicles

such as installation of idling braking devices for route buses and new engine replacement.

4-6

The calculation period for CDM effect (credit period) is limited to 10 years. Rail transport systems

costs much compared with other sectors and have some problems with profitability. This is estimated

as one of the reasons why CDM is difficult to apply to transportation systems. Annual average CO2

reduction by this project is 2,550t (=76,515/30) until the year 2048.

“According to Nikkei-JBIC Carbon Quotation trading”, published in August 2011, emission trading

price is 860.2 yen/t and trading price of this project can be calculated as approximate 2.2 million

yen/y. Considering its profitability, it seems difficult to apply CDM scheme to this project.

4-7

4.3 Environmental Impact by the Project Implementation

4.3.1 Identification of Environmental and Social Impact

Items which are supposed to effect environmental and social aspects by this project are identified

based on Environmental Check List (railway) in JICA Guidelines as shown in Table 4-5.

Matters requiring special consideration, requiring explanation to obtain understanding by residents

and requiring coordination with related institutions are shown as follows.

(1) Involuntary Resettlement

In this project, the best suited route was drafted, using existing roads as introducing space with

consideration for linear characteristics of the APM system so as to minimize involuntary

resettlement. However, at the access to Cikarang station, the entrance to the Jababeka industrial park

and at part of northern area along the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, involuntary resettlement of

existing residences is not avoidable. At present, this is in the stage of initial environmental survey

and detailed residences required for involuntary resettlement are unclear. But it is estimated that

involuntary resettlement and acquisition of approximated 30 existing residences and approximated

67,200m2 (including approximated 27,000m

2 of undeveloped area).

In principle, with involuntary resettlement, consent of the residents is required. It is important to

implement such resettlement with the resettlement plan following involuntary resettlement

procedures in order to avoid disadvantages for relocated residents.

(2) Radio Disturbance related to Livelihood

The APM system is a wholly elevated line therefore Radio Disturbance caused by an elevated

structure is considerable. But it is difficult to clarify the specific locations and scales at this initial

environment study stage. It is necessary to consider some countermeasures, including installment of

a common antenna in the harmed areas, at the detailed design stage.

(3) Impact during Construction

In this project, environmental pollution such as noise/vibration occurrence by piling works and

exhaust gas from heavy equipment is considerable. It is necessary to consider mitigation measures at

the construction planning stage.

In addition, restriction of existing roads will possibly cause traffic congestion because the APM

system will be installed in the space currently occupied by roads. It is necessary to understand road

conditions of the surrounding areas when planning for the delivery and installing of materials before

construction. In order to minimize the impact, delivery of materials at night time, indication of

detour roads and etc. shall be required. Such mitigation plans shall be understood by related

authorities with an explanation in advance.

(4) Tree Cutting and transplanting

Some sections of road in industrial parks, proposed as part of the route of the APM system, have

trees in the median dividers which are to be used as the installation space. Such trees shall be cut or

transplanted. They can be transplanted under elevated sections or other places as a mitigation

measure after construction of elevated structures. It is required to consider how to secure green areas

for the project as a whole.

4-8

Table 4-5 Check List of JICA Guideline for Environmental Study

Classificatio

n

Environment

item Main Matters to be Checked

Yes:Y

No:N

Concrete environmental social

consideration

(Reasons why of Yes/No, basis,

relief measures, etc.)

1 A

ppro

val an

d E

xp

lanatio

n

(1) EIA and

environmental

approval

(a) Have the environmental

assessment evaluation reports

(EIA report) been completed?

(b) Is the EIA report approved

by the interested-state

governments?

(c) Is approval of the EIA

report etc. accompanied by

collateral conditions? Are the

conditions fulfilled when

there are the collateral

conditions?

(d) When required in addition

to the above, has permission

and approval about the

environment been obtained

from the local competent

authorities?

(a)N

(b)N

(c)N

(d)N

(a)(b)(c) Environmental audit

document is necessary to be

drawn up from now on.

(d) There is no permit approval on

environment other than EIA.

(2) Explanation

to local

stakeholders

(a) Was appropriate

explanation to the local

stakeholders including

information disclosure given,

and an understanding about

the contents and impacts of

the project obtained?

(b) Were the comments from

residents etc. reflected in the

contents of the project?

(a)N

(b)N

(a) The project summary was

explained to the industrial park

authorized personnel involved in

MM2100 industrial town,

Jababeka industrial park, and


who can be local stakeholders,

and support of information service

etc. has been obtained. However,

this is in the situation in the initial

stage of project formulation, and it

is necessary to explain it to the

local stakeholders and obtain an

understanding with development

of in-depth official research from

now on.

(b) At present, meetings to explain

to local residents etc. are not

carried out. It is necessary to carry

out meetings to explain to local

residents etc. from now on, and to

reflect them in the project.

(3) Examination

of alternatives

(a) Were multiple alternatives

of the project plan examined

(including items related to the

environment and society)?

(a)Y (a) Examination with the

alternative plans is underway

about the acquisition scale in

examination of the route proposal.

4-9

2 P

ollu

tion

Measu

res

(1) Water

quality

(a) Does the water quality of a

downstream water area

deteriorate by the soil runoff

from topsoil outcrops, such as

the bank and the cut earth?

(b) Is the drainage from a

station or a vehicle base

consistent with the effluent

standard of interested states,

etc.? Also, are water areas,

which are not consistent with

the environmental standards

of interested states,

generated?

(a)N

(b)N

(a) It will not get worse. The

project site is at a flat area, and

since the whole track of the APM

system is an elevated-line

structure, there is almost no

banking or earth-cutting part, and

as such the soil runoff is not

generated.

(b) In the sewage treatment of a

station, or sewage treatment in the

vehicle base and the unnecessary

oil processing for maintenance

check, sufficient consideration is

required and cautions for the

leakage from the waste substance

storage warehouse is needed.

(2) Waste

substances

(a) Is the waste substance

from the station or the vehicle

base processed and disposed

of appropriately according to

the regulations of interested

states?

(a)Y (a) The waste substances in the

station are cans, bottles, plastic

bottles, magazines, tickets, etc.,

and the waste substances of the

vehicle base can be oil, worn

parts, etc. It is necessary to

process appropriately according to

the Indonesian waste disposal

regulations.

(3) Noise and

vibration

(a) Is the noise and vibration

by the railroad consistent with

the standards of interested

states, etc.?

(a)Y (a) The APM system is a system

with low noise and vibration and

considered to be satisfactory. The

modal shift from road traffic to the

APM system is expected, and it

should contribute to mitigate noise

and vibration by facilitation of

road traffic. After the APM system

begins operation it will be

necessary to monitor noise and

vibration, and report the results to

the authorities, such as the local

environment, periodically.

(4) Subsidence

of ground

(a) Is there is a possibility that

subsidence of ground may

arise, by a lot of ground-water

pumping (especially

underground)?

(a)N (a) In order to build a APM

system of whole-elevated-line

structure, earthwork is performed

at the time of basic construction of

a civil engineering structure, but

there are little possibility that

subsidence of ground by the

pumping of ground water will

arise.

4-10

3 N

atural E

nv

iron

men

t

(1) Protected

region

(a) Is the site located in a

protected area provided for in

law, international treaties, etc.

of interested states? Does the

project affect the protected

area?

(a)N (a) The site is a complex urban

site and an industrial park area,

and there is no protected area

provided in law, international

treaty, etc. in the space area along

the railroad line of the APM

system.

(2) Ecosystem (a) Does the site include

primeval forests, tropical

natural forests, and

ecologically important

habitats (coral reef, mangrove

coast, mudflat, etc.)?

(b) Does the site include the

habitat of rare species for

which protection is needed by

the law, international treaties,

etc. of interested states?

(c) When concerned about the

serious influence on the

ecosystem, are measures

which reduce the influence on

the ecosystem taken?

(d) Are the measures which

prevent the blockage of the

migration pathways of

wildlife and livestock, the

division of wildlife habitat,

traffic accidents between

vehicles and animals, etc.

taken?

(e) Is deforestation, poaching,

desertification, drying of

marshland, etc. associated

with development produced

by the building of the

railroad? Is there any

possibility that the ecosystem

may be disturbed by

introduction of alien species

(they traditionally do not

inhabit the area), disease and

pest insects, etc.? Are

measures to these prepared?

(f) When building a railroad

in an undeveloped area, is the

natural environment spoiled

greatly in connection with

new community

development?

(a)N

(b)N

(c)Y

(d)Y

(e)N

(f)N

(a)(b)(c) Since the site is an area

which consists of a

multifunctional city, an industrial

park, and an industrial park plan

lot, it will not be influenced.

(d) As the APM system is a

wholely-elevated-line structure, it

is thought that the interruption of

moving pathways of wild animals

and livestock, the division of

wildlife habitats, and traffic

accidents between vehicles and

animals will not occur.

(e) There is no possibility of

deforestation or disturbing the

ecosystem by the import of alien

species, disease and pest insects,

etc.

(f) Although a part of the

proposed route passes along the

undeveloped area, the area

concerned is regarded as a future

industrial park area, and will not

spoil natural environment.

4-11

3 N

atural E

nv

iron

men

t

(3) Hydrometeor (a) Does new construction of

structures, such as a change of

geographical feature and

tunnels, have an adverse

effect on the flow of a surface

water and ground water?

(a)N (a) The drainage plan is created

fully grasping the drain capacity

of every region so that roads in the

area are not flooded with water by

the drainage from the track part,

the station part, and the depot at

any time even in the event of

heavy rain in the rainy season.

(4)

Geographical

feature and

geology

(a) Is there any geological

area where earth-and-sand

collapse and landslide are

likely produced on the route?

When bad, are appropriate

measures taken into

consideration by the

construction method etc.?

(b) Are earth-and-sand

collapse and the landslide

produced by such

engineering-works as

banking, earth-cutting, etc.?

Are the appropriate measures

for preventing earth-and-sand

collapse and landslide taken

into consideration?

(c) Is soil runoff from the

bank, earth-cutting, soil

disposal area, and the

earth-and-sand extraction

place produced? Are the

appropriate measures for

preventing sediment

discharge taken?

(a)N

(b)N

(c)N

(a) The site is a flatland and there

is no place where earth-and-sand

collapse or a landslide occurs.

(b)(c) There are no banking and

earth-cutting due to the elevated

structure, and the earth-and-sand

collapse or the landslide by civil

engineering work will not occur.

Also, soil runoff will not occur

either.

4 S

ocial E

nv

iron

men

t (1) Resident

move

(a) Is involuntary resident

transfer produced in

connection with the project

execution? When produced

are efforts made to minimize

the influence of a transfer?

(b) Is appropriate explanation

about the measures against

compensation/ life

reconstruction given before a

transfer to the residents who

are to be transferred?

(c) Is the investigation for the

resident transfer made and is

a transfer plan including

recovery of the life base after

compensation by the current

replacement cost and the

transfer established?

(d) Is payment of

compensation made before a transfer?

(a)Y

(b)Y

(c)Y

(d)Y

(e)Y

(f)Y

(g)Y

(h)Y

(i)Y

(j)Y

(a) An involuntary resident

transfer arises in a part of sections,

such as the Cikarang station

access part and the entrance part

to the industrial-park area.

Since it is possible for the APM

system to make the road

introduction space and to allow it

to be comparatively more flexible

in alignment choices, the plan

shall be of minimum influence by

transfer.

(b) The appropriate explanation

about compensation etc. is to be

given before the transfer as

procedures about the involuntary

resident transfer have been

established.

4-12

4 S

ocial E

nv

iron

men

t

(1) Resident

move

(e) Is the compensation plan

in written form?

(f) Was the appropriate

consideration for socially

vulnerable groups, such as

women, children, elderly

men, the poor, ethnic

minorities, indigenous people,

scheduled especially among

residents to be transferred?

(g) Can an agreement before a

transfer be reached with

residents to be transferred?

(h) Is a system for carrying

out a resident transfer

appropriately prepared? Are

sufficient competency and

budget measures taken?

(i) Is monitoring of the

influence by a transfer

planned?

(j) Is a structure for handling

complaints built?

(c) The transfer plan can be

created to have a lot location

survey, an asset survey, land

evaluation, contents deliberations

of compensation, etc.

(d) Compensation is to be paid

after the contents of compensation

before a transfer is agreed.

(e) The contents of compensation

are drawn up in writing.

(f) Since the residents affected by

influence have procedures, such as

common knowledge of public

relations, deliberations, and

protest, socially vulnerable

groups, such as women, children,

old men, the poor, ethnic

minorities, indigenous people,

were considered.

(g) It is required to show

compensation which does not

become disadvantageous for

transfer persons, and since

deliberations towards agreement

formation are implemented, it is

thought that an agreement is

reached before a transfer.

(h)(i) Enforcement system,

budget, and monitoring are

considered by the procedures of

the resident transfer.

(j) There is structure of a

complaint statement in the

procedures of the resident transfer.

(2) Life and

livelihood

(a) When a railroad is

installed by new

development, does it have

influence on the existing

means of transportation or the

life of the residents engaged

in it? Also, are there large

changes of land use

livelihood means,

unemployment, etc.

produced? Does the plan

consider relief of these

influences?

(b) Are there any adverse

effects on residents by the

project? When required, what

measures are considered to

mitigate the impact?

(a)Y

(b)N

(c)N

(d)N

(e)N

(f)Y

(a) Although the influence on the

peripheral people by the

management, drivers, etc. of

buses, minibuses, etc. can be

considered, on the other hand, by

the project, construction workers

increase in number during a

construction period, and new job

opportunities after operation in the

commercial establishment around

the operating company and the

station, etc. also increase.

(b) Since it is a project of high

public responsibility, residents'

convenience improves, and there

will be no adverse effect.

(c) Since it is the local traffic of

Cikarang district, there is no

danger of occurrence of illness as

there is little chance of promotion

for a population influx from distant places.

4-13

4 S

ocial E

nv

iron

men

t

(2) Life and

livelihood

(c) Is there any danger of

illness generated (including

infection, such as HIV) by a

population influx from other

areas? Is consideration of

suitable public health

sanitation taken if needed?

(d) Is there an adverse effect

in the road traffic of

surrounding areas by the

project (the increase in traffic

congestion, traffic accidents,

etc.)?

(e) Does an obstacle arise in

residents' migration by the

rail line?

(f) Is sunshine prevention and

radio disturbance produced by

railroad structures (bridge

etc.)?

(d) There will be no adverse effect

to surrounding road traffic. The

modal shift from the road traffic

progresses by introducing the

APM system and congestion relief

of road traffic can be expected.

(e) Since the whole APM system

is of elevated-line structure, the

area is not divided by the track

and an obstacle will not be

produced in residents' migration.

(f) Sunshine blocking: It occurs.

Although the places which

daylight hours are influenced with

an elevated structure also will be

created, the influence is

considered little by making

introduction space into the center

of a road. Also, since there are

more portions where sunshine is

limited throughout the year in

Cikarang area, it is considered not

to be a serious problem. Radio

disturbance: It is produced. The

places where radio disturbance is

produced with an elevated

structure may be created.

Although the places to be

influenced cannot be pinpointed in

an initial environmental research

stage, it is necessary to investigate

at the time of detailed design.

(3) Cultural

heritage

(a) Is there any possibility of

damaging valuable

archaeological, historical,

cultural or religious heritage

or sites by the project? Also,

are the measures defined in

the municipal law of

interested states taken into

consideration?

(a)N

(a) In the area along the proposal

route of this project there are no

archaeologically, historically, in

culture, and religiously precious

inheritance, historic relics, etc.

(4) View (a) When the scenery which

should be considered

especially exists, is it affected

adversely? Are required

measures taken when

influential?

(a)N (a) The scenery which should be

considered does not exist along

the proposal route in particular of

this project. However, since the

whole line is of elevated structure,

the structure, station building

design, etc. is required to maintain

harmony with the surrounding

scenery. Also, it is necessary to

devise, such as designing to

temporary enclosure during a

construction period.

4-14

4 S

ocial en

viro

nm

ent

(5) Ethnic

minority,

indigenous

people

(a) Is consideration which

reduces the impact on the

culture and the lifestyle of

ethnic minorities and

indigenous people taken?

(b) Are various rights about

the land and resources of

ethnic minorities and

indigenous people respected?

(a)Y

(b)Y

(a)(b) Ethnic minorities and

indigenous people are not living

along the proposal route of the

project.

(6) Labor

environment

(a) Are the laws on the labor

environment of the interested

states which should be

observed in the project

protected?

(b) Are the measures of the

safety consideration in the

hardware aspect to project

authorized personnel, such as

installation of the safety

equipment concerning

industrial accident prevention

and management of harmful

substances taken?

(c) Are the measures in the

software aspect to project

related personnel, such as

implementation of safety and

health plan and safety training

to workers (including traffic

safety and public health

sanitation) planned and

carried out?

(d) Are the appropriate

measures taken so that the

security staff related to the

project may not infringe on

the safety of project related

personnel and local residents?

(a)Y

(b)Y

(c)Y

(d)Y

(a) This project is a public

transportation project and the

related law can be observed by

conforming to the performances

of the labor environment of traffic

transit systems, such as the

existing railroad and a bus, etc., in

Indonesia.

(b) Since this project also has

many performances in and outside

the country, it is possible to take

measures of the safety

consideration by the hardware

aspect to project related personnel,

such as installation of the safety

equipment concerning the

industrial accident prevention and

management of harmful

substance, etc. of the APM

system.

(c) Since this project also has

many performances in and outside

the country, it is possible to carry

out technology transfer in the

software aspect to project related

personnel such as planning the

safety-and-hygiene and the

implementation of safety and

health to staffs, etc. of the APM

system.

(d) It is necessary to aim at

thoroughness through educational

instructions so that it may not

infringe on the safety of project

related personnel and local

residents for the security staffs of

the project.

4-15

5 O

thers

(1) Influence

under

construction

(a) Are the relief measures for

contamination during

construction (noise, vibration,

muddy water, dust, exhaust

gas, waste substance, etc.)

prepared?

(b) Is the natural environment

(ecosystem) affected

adversely by construction?

Are relief measures to reduce

impacts prepared?

(c) Is the social environment

affected adversely by

construction? Are relief

measures to reduce impacts

prepared?

(d) Is road traffic congestion

generated by construction,

and are relief measures to

reduce impacts prepared?

(a)Y

(b)N

(c)Y

(d)Y

(a) The relief measures over

contamination during construction

shall be prepared. As for the

construction work, the relief

measures over environment

pollution shall be examined fully

in the implementation plan.

(b) As the road is made into the

introduction space of the APM

system, it will not have an adverse

effect on the ecosystem by

construction.

(c)(d) Concern about traffic

congestion occurring by lane

regulation etc. by construction. It

is necessary to form construction

plans, such as carrying in and

installation works, before start of

construction, to strive for

minimization of influence in road

traffic putting up an indication for

detour, etc.

(2) Monitoring (a) Is the business operator's

monitoring planned and

carried out to the items which

can be subject to the influence

among the above-mentioned

environment items?

(b) Are the items of the plan

concerned, methods,

frequency, etc. judged to be

appropriates?

(c) Is the business operator's

monitoring system

(organization, staffs,

equipment, budgets, etc. and

those continuity) established?

(d) Are the methods,

frequency, etc. of the report

from the business operator to

competent authorities etc.

specified?

(a)Y

(b)Y

(c)Y

(d)Y

(a)(b)(c)(d) The results of

environment management and

monitoring must be submitted

every three months in order to

obtain the approvals of the

Environmental Impact

Coordination Bureau of the

Ministry of Environment, the

Ministry of Public Operators, and

the District Environmental Impact

Administration Bureau.

4-16

6 Im

po

rtant M

atters

(1) Reference of

other

environmental

check lists

(a) If necessary, additional

items can be evaluated by

checking the appropriate

checklist relating to forestry

(when accompanied by

large-scale deforestation)

(b) If necessary, additional

items can be evaluated by

checking the appropriate

checklist relating to the

distribution and transmission

of electrical power (when

accompanied by construction

of distribution and

transmission of electrical

power and distribution

institution etc.).

(a)Y

(b)Y

(a) Although the APM system

makes the road median strip

introduction space in the industrial

park, it needs to consider tree

cutting and transplanting in the

part where the trees planted at the

time of road maintenance and

improvement exist.

(b) Although the parts where the

power cable was stretched are

along the proposal route, it is

necessary to consider the

construction plan which will not

affect them.

(2) Notes for

environmental

check-list use

(a) If necessary, the effects of

transboundary or global

environmental issues shall

also be checked (when the

elements concerning the

problem of cross-border

processing of waste

substances, acid rain, ozone

layer depletion, and global

warming can be considered

etc.).

(a)Y (a) Introduction of the APM

system brings about the modal

shift from the road traffic, and

contributes to reduction of

greenhouse gas.

Note 1) As for "the standards of interested states" in the table, measures will be examined if

needed when there is significant deviation as compared with the standards accepted

internationally. As for the items for which the regulation is not established in interested states

presently, they will be examined by comparing them with appropriate standards other than

interested states (also including the experience in Japan).

Note 2) The environmental check list shows only standard environmental check items, and

needs to delete or add items depending on the characteristics of the business and the area.

Source: Study Team

4.3.2 Land Acquisition and Involuntary Resettlement

It is likely that this project will cause involuntary resettlement along the route of the APM system.

The scale, based on aerial photographs and considering a required road width of 15m for the APM

system installation, is estimated to be as follows.

• Access to Cikarang station: 15 involuntary resettlements, 5,300m2 acquisition

• Entrance of Jababeka industrial park: 17 involuntary resettlements, 5,900m2 acquisition

• North of Jababeka Cikampek Toll Road: 29,000m2 acquisition

• Bekasi Fajar industrial estate district: 27,000m2 acquisition

4-17

Figure 4-1 Locations Requiring Land Acquisition

Source: Study Team

Land Acquisition at Undeveloped

Area without Road

Land Acquisition with Voluntary

Resettlemen

Route 1 of the new system

0 1 2 km

Java Main Line Cikarang Station

Jababeka

Industrial Park

MM2100

Industrial Town

Bekasi Fajar


Industrial Estate

Deltamas City

EJIP

Land Acquisition at Undeveloped

Area without Road

Land Acquisition with Voluntary

Resettlemen

Route of the APM

4-18

4.3.3 Comparison with Alternative Route

The result of the comparison study, focusing on environmental/social impacts, with Alternative

Route 2 proposed in "3.2.1 Route Planning" is shown in Table 4-6.

Table 4-6 Comparison of Alternative Route

Route 1 Route 2

Main

Introduction

space

Cikarang Station ~ Jababeja industrial park ~

Bekasi Fajar industrial estate ~ MM2100

industrial town

Cikarang Station ~ Industry Road ~

Jababeka-Cikampek Toll Road IC. ~ EJIP ~


Root Length 12km 11km

The depot location will be the same with

proposed route 1 due to the difficulty for

finding the depot site. Therefore, total route

length is longer than proposed route 1

considering to approx. 2.5km length of the

approach track from the main line to the depot.

Developments

along the route

• Construction Plan of Interchange for

Jababeka industrial park of


• Development of Large scale

Commercial Facilities in Jababeka

industrial park area, north of


• Plans for industrial parks and complex

city in the undeveloped area of Bekasi

Fajar industrial estate

• Construction plan of IT business center

in MM2100 industrial town

• Many Japanese Companies

• Development plan of complex city in

undeveloped area of Jababeka industrial

park

• Development Plan of Lippo Cikarang

industrial estate, Deltamas City

Land

Acquisition

Approximate 30 Involuntary Resettlements

Approximate 67,200m2 Acquisition

(including undeveloped area of Approximate

56,000 m2)

Approximate 380 Involuntary Resettlements

Approximate 85,000 m2 Acquisition

Depot Site Undeveloped area of Bekasi Fajar industrial

estate is intended to be used.

Jababeka industrial town, EJIP are difficult to

use because of existing development plans.

Use of Bekasi Fajar industrial estate is not

profitable and operationally efficient because

of a too long approach track.

Evaluation At the industrial estates, land acquisition is

not required. Land acquisition scale is small

overall.

Land acquisition scale is large including at the

depot site.

Project Effects Convenient for commuters to industrial

estates and beneficial for Japanese

companies.

Future economic benefit is expected because

of improvement of transportation convenience

by development of undeveloped areas.

Judgment Good Fair

Source: Study Team

4-19

4.3.4 Local Information related to the Environment

The local information related to the environment according to interviews with local developers as

part of our field survey is as follows.

• Land acquisition is the most important matter in the project area.

• It is necessary to comply with the environment assessment standard of Road Bureau because

the right of way of the APM use road space.

• There are not any problems with the cutting of the trees on the green belt of the center of the

road when civil structures are constructed.

• In the industrial park area, the portion of green space is more than 30% of the total area.

However, the road space is classed together as the green space, thus the impact by the APM

system introduction is considered to be low.

• The drainage pollution is the priority issue in the industrial parks.

4-20

4.4 Summary of Environmental/Social Legislation in the host country

4.4.1 Main Legislation relating to Environmental/Social Considerations

In Indonesia, the Basic Environment Act enacted in 1982 (old Act) was significantly amended in

1997. This amendment included reinforcement of environmental restrictions against business

activities, enforcement of penal regulations, enrichment of rules related to dispute resolution and

introduction of rules for residents’ right to environmental information. Afterwards, in 2009, by Act

Number 32, the Environment Control Act was enacted and the authorities and penal regulations of

officials governing environmental issues were significantly reinforced. In addition, the Wastes

Control Act was enacted as the law related to wastes management in 2008.

Control of water and air quality is governed by separate cabinet orders. For water quality, Cabinet

Order for Prevention of Water Pollution and Control of Water Quality (No.82/2001) exists. For air

pollution, Ordinance for Prevention of Air Pollution (in 1999) exists. As well, other regulations,

including Cabinet Order for Hazardous Wastes Management (in 1999), Cabinet Order for

Environmental Impact Assessment (in 1999) and etc. exist. Environmental limitations and applicable

facilities required for execution of such orders are determined by Ministerial orders or other

regulations.

Legislation relating to implementation of this project is show in Table 4-7.

Table 4-7 Legislation for Environmental Pollution Control relating to this Project

Field Acts

Environment in

General

Environmental Protection and Management Act 32 (2009)

Decentralization Law No.22 ,1999

Water Quality

Control

Government Regulation 82 Water Quality Management and Water Pollution

Control (2001)

Minister of Environment Decree Kep-51/MENLH Liquid Waste Water

Quality Standard for Industrial Activities (1995)

Joint Circular Letter Between Minister of Home Affairs airs and State

Minister of Environment concerning Reorganization of Local Government

Governmental Institutions.

Number 061/163/SJ/2008 and SE-01/MENLH/2008

Air Quality Control Minister of Environmental Decree Kep-35/MENLH Emission Limit for

Gas Waste of Motor Vehicles (1993)

National ambient quality standards: GR No.41/1999

Noise Prevention Decree of Ministry of Environment No. 48/MENLH/11/1996: Noise

standards

Vibration-Prevention Decree of Ministry of Environment No. 49/MENLH/11/1996: Vibration

standards

Environmental

Impact Assessment

Government Regulation of The Republic of Indonesia Concerning

Environmental Impact Assessment (No.51, 1993)

Decree of Ministry of Environment No. 17/2001: Type and size of business

and/or activities

requiring AMDAL document

Others Presidential Decree No. 2/2002 on the amendment to Presidential Decree

No.101/2001 on the status, tasks, functions, authority, organizational

structures and working arrangements of state ministers

Source：BAPADAL

4-21

The supposed risks indicated in “JETRO Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations”

and environmental laws in Indonesia are compared in Table 4-8.

Table 4-8 Comparison between JETRO Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations

and environmental laws in Indonesia

Supposed Project Risks

(JETRO Guidelines for Environmental

and Social Considerations)

Check Laws in Indonesia

Pollutants or hazardous wastes from offices

and factories Good

Environmental Protection and

Management Act 32 (2009)

Government Regulation 41 Air

Pollution Control (1999)

Government Regulation 82 Water

Quality Management and Water

Pollution Control (2001)

Prohibition against forced labor, child

labor, breach of minimum wages and

breach of workers’ rights

Good Labor law 2003

Discrimination in employment Good Labor law 2003

Employment in hazardous and non-healthy

work Good Labor law 2003

No environmental/social assessment at

construction of offices and factories Good

Environmental Protection and


Occurrence of involuntary resettlement at

land acquisition Good Land 2005

Inconsistent measures for disaster, accident

or emergency Good Labor law 2003

Corruption Good Anti-corruption 2001

Non-disclosure of environmental

information to citizens, non-participation in

decision-making process

Good Environmental Protection and


Relating law is existing：Good Partially existing：Fair Undeveloped：Poor

Source: Study Team

4.4.2 Procedures for Land Acquisition and Resettlement

Land acquisition and resettlement for public works in Indonesia is governed by the Land Acquisition

Act. As shown in Figure 4-2, the procedures are carried out in order of 1) permission for land use

and construction, 2) inspection for land and assets and 3) negotiation and payment of compensation.

4-22

Figure 4-2 Land Acquisition and Resettlement Procedures

Source: BAPEDAL

4.4.3 Environmental Impact Assessment System

The Environmental Impact Assessment Report in Indonesia was first introduced in Cabinet Order no.

29/1986 and amended the system such as the simplification of initial screening process, etc. in

Cabinet Order no. 51/1993. In addition, the comprehensive committee of the environmental impact

assessment was established in 1994. The Environmental Impact Assessment Report is consists of

general provisions, environmental management, human resource development, supervision, finance,

transitional provisions and so on. Main procedures and contents are as follows. Persons who conduct

activities or business possibly causing harm to the environment have to prepare a Preliminary

Environmental Information Report (PIL). Items significantly affecting the environment are listed as

1) scale of affected population, 2) scale of affected area, 3) impact duration, 4) impact strength, 5)

number of affected environmental components, 6) cumulative effects and 7) reversibility or

irreversibility of environmental impacts. If such impacts are determined to be significant or similar

results have come from the results of the PIL, preparation of an Environment Impact Assessment

Report (called as AMDAL in Indonesia) is required. Necessity of AMDAL for certain activity or

business is judged through evaluation of PIL by a special committee including Ministers governing

related activities. There are two committees, one at the national level and one at the state level. the

national level committee is composed of members from Ministry of Environment, Planning Director

of the secretariat of each Ministry and Director General of Office for Environment, a representative

assigned by the Minister of the Interior, a representative assigned by the Minister of

Population/Environment and experts in related fields. State level committees are composed of

Director for Planning/Development of each state, Director for Population/Environment/Development,

heads of living environment research center of universities in related areas and so on. Figure 4-3

shows the procedures of Environment Impact Assessment.

± 4 months ± 6 months ± 2 months ± 4 months

SP2LP Inventarization Deliberation Meeting

And Payment Compensation Money

Depositing (Consignment)

No

after

120 days

Yes

No

Yes

Notes :

SP2LP : Land Use and Construction Permit

P2T : Land Acquisition Committee

TPT : Land Acquisition Team MPW : Minister of Public

Works

Land Appraisal

Appraisal Team

Deliberation Meeting

Land Owner, TPT, P2T

Nominative List

TPT, P2T

Compensation Money Payment

Land Owners, TPT, P2T

Agree

SKP2T

P2T

Filling Complaint to Governor/Regent/Mayor

Land Owners

Answer to the Complaint of Land Owners

Governor/Regent/Mayor

Land Owners Agree

Land Owner Agree

ROW Plan

MPW

SP2LP Request

MPW

Land Freezing


Request to P2T to start to start the land

acquisition Minister of Public Works

ROW Determination

TPT

Calculating and Mapping of Land Field

Land Office / P2T

Land, Building and Plant Revitalization

P2T

Inventarization List Announcement

P2T

Socialization/Dissemination

TPT

Issuance of SP2LP


Depositing Compensation Money to

the State Court

P2T, TPT

Agreement Letter to start the construction


4-23

Figure 4-3 EIA Procedures

Community Stakeholders Responsible Institutions Project Proponent

Source: BAPEDAL

Announcement of

Project Plan

Announcement for

Preparation of EIA

Suggestions, Options

and Responses

(within 30 days)

Preparation of Guidelines for

EIA Consultation

Review of TOR of EIA

By EIA Committee (within 75 days)

Preparation of

EIS and EMPs

Decision of Approval


and Responses

Review of EIS and EMPs

By EIA Committee

(within 75 days)


and Responses

4-24

4.5 Matters Conducted by Host Country (implementing and

concerned organization) for Project Realization

Matters to be conducted by the Indonesia Government are shown in Table 4-9 for realization of this

project.

Table 4-9 Matters to be undertaken by Government of Indonesia

Stage Activity Authority Period

DETAILED

DESIGN

[EIA]

Preparation of PIL Owner

Announcement for Preparation of AMDAL

Ministry of the Environment

KA-ANDAL Evaluation by Committee

Ministry of the Environment 75 days

ANDAL, RKL, RPL Evaluation by Committee

Ministry of the Environment 75 days

Decision of Approval of AMDAL


[Land Acquisition and Resettlement]

Request for determination of the Project

location and trace

Owner

Public Operator

Governor

2 months

Inspection for land and assets Land Acquisition Committees 4 months

Negotiation, payment of compensation and

delivery of new land certificates

Governor

Land Acquisition Committees

6 months

PRE-CONS

TRUCTION

STAGE

Permission for implementation of project

Acquisition of land

Removal of affected public assets (electric pole,

optic cable, water pipe etc)

Permission for cutting roadside trees

Permission for disposal and treatment of waste

Permission for traffic regulation

Ministry of Transportation

Public of Indonesia/

Directorate General of

Railways


Bekasi Regency

Source: Study Team

Chapter 5

Financial and Economic Evaluation

5-1

5.1 Estimation of Project Cost

5.1.1 Overview of Project Cost

Project costs are calculated from civil construction costs, rolling stock costs, E&M system costs and

other construction costs as well as consultant fees and land costs. Additional costs for increase in the

number of rolling stock accompanying future increase in demand and related construction costs are

considered.

Each construction unit price is based on practical and economical construction methods. The

breakdown of each construction unit price is divided into local currency (L/C) and foreign currency

(F/C) based on Indonesia's procurement potential, and further split by fiscal year for allocation. VAT

(value-added tax) and contingency are taken into account for these prices.

(1) Civil Construction Costs

Civil construction costs sum up super structure costs, substructure costs, guideway installation costs,

station building costs and depot construction costs. The validity of each construction type

construction unit cost is examined based on past similar examples from various countries similar to

Indonesia and relevant other countries for use. In addition, if there are no suitable past examples, the

construction unit cost is calculated based on a separate estimation.

(2) Rolling stock and E&M System Construction Costs

Rolling stock costs will be allocated in the Japanese expenses in the plan where the rolling stock are

manufactured in Japan. Construction unit costs for electric train systems, signalling and

telecommunication systems, rolling stock repair plants, etc. are calculated based on past similar

examples with the same characteristics.

(3) Consultant Fees

Fees for consultants who provide assistance to the entity executing the project are divided into

domestic and foreign currency and allocated.

(4) Land Costs

Land and depot land acquisition costs which affect proposed system route construction are allocated.

(5) Contingency

5% is accounted for both for construction costs and consultant fees.

(6) VAT (Value-added Tax)

10% of VAT is considered.

(7) Exchange Rates

The exchange rate of November 2011 will be used.

Japanese Yen / Indonesian Rupiah: 1 Yen = 99.01 Rupiah

Indonesian Rupiah / Japanese Yen: 1 Rupiah = 0.01 Yen

U.S. Dollars / Japanese Yen: 1 US$ = 79.3 Yen

U.S. Dollars / Indonesian Rupiah: 1 US$ = 7,851 Rupiah

(8) Base Years of Estimation

November 2011

5-2

5.1.2 Construction Costs

Total project costs of proposed system are shown in Table 5-1. Additional investment of rolling stock

are planned in accordance with future passenger demand increases in 2024 and 2037. In 2024, there

will be a need for rolling stock purchase costs, however for the 2037 rolling stock increase, the trains

will be increased from 2 cars to 4 cars, so in addition to rolling stock purchase costs, station building

expansion, depot stabling track expansion, power, and signalling and telecommunication system

expansion construction will be necessary.

Table 5-1 Construction Cost

Unit: F/C; million Yen

Unit: L/C; million Rupiah

Unit: Total; million Yen (million USD)

Item Total of 2013 to 2018 2024 2037 Remarks

F/C L/C Total F/C L/C Total F/C L/C Total

Civil works

(1) Main line 7,232 1,626,800 23,500

(296.3)

0 0 0

(0)

0 0 0

(0)

(2) Station 1,350 335,000 4,700

(59.3)

0 0 0

(0)

0 0 0

(0)

(3) Depot 1,290 170,940 2,999

(37.8)

0 0 0

(0)

810 201,000 2,820

(35.6)

(4) Environmental cost 0 12,000 120

(1.5)

0 0 0

(0)

19 2,940 48

(0.6)

(5) Total of civil works 9,872 2,144,740 31,319

(394.9)

0 0 0

(0)

829 203,940 2,868

(36.2)

E&M

(6) Rolling stock 7,200 0 7,200

(90.8)

2,160 0 2,160

(27.2)

2,880 0 2,880

(36.3)

(7) Electrical facility 5,078 127,001 6,348

(80.1)

0 0 0

(0)

56 1,400 70

(0.9)

(8) Signalling & telecom 4,396 109,900 5,495

(69.3)

0 0 0

(0)

56 1,400 70

(0.9)

(9) Station facility 1,040 26,000 1,300

(16.4)

0 0 0

(0)

0 0 0

(0)

(10) Depot facility 490 21,000 700

(8.8)

0 0 0

(0)

0 0 0

(0)

(11) Total of E&M 18,204 283,901 21,043

(265.4)

2,160 0 2,160

(27.2)

2,992 2,800 3,020

(38.1)

(12) Civil + E&M 28,076 2,428,641 52,362

(660.3)

2,160 0 2,160

(27.2)

3,821 206,740 5,888

(74.3) (5)+(11)

(13) Land Cost 0 440,600 4,406

(55.6)

0 0 0

(0)

0 0 0

(0)

(14) Consulting fee 1,200 280,000 4,000

(50.4)

0 0 0

(0)

0 0 0

(0)

(15) Contingency 1,464 135,432 2,818

(35.5)

108 0 108

(1.4)

191 10,337 294

(3.7) (12)+(14)*5%

(16) Total 29,276 3,149,241 60,768

(766.3)

2,160 0 2,160

(27.2)

3,821 206,740 5,888

(74.3) (12)+(13)+(14)

(17) VAT 2,928 314,924 6,077

(76.6)

216 0 216

(2.7)

382 20,674 589

(7.4) (16)*VAT10%

Grand total 33,667 3,599,597 69,663

(878.5)

2,484 0 2,484

(31.3)

4,394 237,751 6,772

(85.4) (15)+(16)+(17)

Source: Study Team

5-3

5.1.3 Construction Cost Details

(1) Construction Preparation Costs

Costs for commencing construction work.

(2) Substructure Construction

Main line substructures are examined in the standard formats then construction costs are calculated

for each location.

(3) Super Structure Construction

Super structure construction is planned to use PC box girders in general areas, and steel box girders

in areas which traverse highways over long spans.

1) PC Box Girders

30m girder length PC box girders are used as standard with construction costs calculated per

girder.

2) Steel Box Girders

Use of steel box girders is planned for highway crossing areas. Construction costs are calculated

from steel material weight.

(4) Station Building Construction

Station building construction costs include elevating facilities such as elevators and escalators,

electrical lighting equipment, drainage water facilities and other facility. Passenger guidance

announcement, clock, communication equipment etc. communication and signalling equipment are

calculated separately as signalling and telecommunications construction costs.

Station buildings are classified into two types, standard stations or terminal stations and the

construction costs for each are calculated.

1) Standard Station 12 Stations

Standard stations are island platform stations with a standard structure and a concourse floor and

platform floor constructed above the road. The terminal stations inside the industrial complex are

planned using the same structure as the standard stations with consideration for future extension.

2) Terminal Station 1 Station

The Cikarang Station side terminal station is planned as a separate platform station in

consideration of passenger transfers.

(5) Running Route, Guideway Construction

Calculated from main line running route, guideway installation construction, turnout equipment and

other construction costs.

(6) Depot Construction

Depot construction costs are calculated from the following items.

1) Depot Foundation Improvement Construction

Because construction is planned in the industrial complex area so levelling construction is not

necessary for the interior of the depot, however foundation improvement construction is planned

to a depth of 2m with consideration for operation and stabling of rolling stock.

5-4

2) Track, Guideway Installation Construction

Because the track inside the depot will be installed above-ground, the structure will differ from the

main line, so the construction costs for the track inside the depot are calculated separately.

3) Depot Approach Track

The unit structural construction costs for the approach track inside the depot are calculated

separate from the main line, and then overall construction costs are calculated.

4) Turnout Equipment

The quantities of branch equipment in the depot are allocated and costs are calculated from the

unit costs.

5) Buildings and Facilities

The construction costs for the comprehensive office building, repair plant and other buildings

constructed inside the depot are calculated.

6) Other Construction

Construction costs for roads, water and sewerage, drainage treatment and other construction are

calculated.

(7) Depot Inspection and Maintenance Plant Construction

Costs for the equipment and facilities required for rolling stock and system equipment maintenance

and inspection are calculated.

(8) Rolling Stock

Planned to be manufactured in Japan and export to Indonesia, rolling stock costs and spare parts are

allocated as foreign currency portion.

(9) Power System

Distribution plants and train line system facility costs are calculated as power systems.

(10) Signalling and Telecommunication Systems

Signal, communication system signal, telecommunication, train management system etc. equipment

are split by domestic and foreign currency and allocated.

(11) Environmental Measure Costs

Costs for environmental measures during the construction work period and remedial expenses are

calculated.

(12) Consultant Fees

The project entity requires consultant support during the execution of work during the APM system

construction work period. The fees for these consultants are calculated. Consultant fees for

additional rolling stock purchases are not calculated.

(13) Land Costs

Land which hinders the construction of the APM system route is divided into general land and land

which requires relocation of residents and then allocated. For the general sections, the parts in the

Bekasi Fajar industrial complex have not yet had construction plans decided, so are allocated as

approximate quantities, and may change according to the road plans inside the industrial complex.

5-5

For depot land acquisition costs purchase of land in sections of the Bekasi Fajar industrial complex

is planned.

5.1.4 Operation and Maintenance Cost

The Operation and Maintenance costs consists of labor cost and expense such as track maintenance

cost, electricity and signalling maintenance cost and others. In this study, the labor costs are

estimated by multiplying the each unit labor costs by the number of workers of each position. The

expenses are estimated based on the basic unit.

(1) Labor Cost

The salaries of each employee are estimated as follows referring to “JETRO Investment guide

2009”.

Table 5-2 Salaries of Employee

Department Position Salaries (per month)

Indonesian Rupiah Japanese Yen

Head Office Management 7,500,000 66,443

Field Operation Engineer 5,628,800 49,866

Staff 2,561,800 22,695

Source: JETRO Investment Guide 2009

(2) Expense

The major expense items excluding labor costs are generally set as follows.

1) Running Cost

2) Track Maintenance Cost

3) Catenary Maintenance Cost

4) Rolling Stock Maintenance Cost

5) Traffic Cost

6) Electricity Cost for Facilities

7) Others: Indirect cost

The basic unit of each expense item are estimated based on the statistical data of Japanese APM

companies. Excluding running cost and electricity cost, the expenses consist of material cost and

outsourcing cost, and outsourcing cost is mainly consist of local labor cost. Therefore those expenses

are assumed at least 20% lower than basic units referring the statistical data of Japan. The basic unit

of each expense item are shown in Table 5-3.

Table 5-3 Basic Unit of Each Expense Item

Expenses Basic Unit

Running Cost Unit price of electricity consumption (rolling stock):

2.5 kWh/vehicle -km, Unit price of electricity charges: 6.7 yen/kWh

Track Maintenance Cost 16 million yen/1km (/route length)/y

Electricity and Signalling

Maintenance Cost 16 million yen/1km (/route length)/y

Rolling Stock Maintenance Cost 44 yen/vehicle-km/y

Transport Cost 12.8 million yen /station/y

Electricity Cost for Facilities 300,000 kWh/facility/y

Others Indirect cost: 20% of Labor cost

Source: Study Team, PLT

5-6

(3) Annual Operation and Maintenance Cost

The annual operation and maintenance costs are shown in Table 5-4.

Table 5-4 Annual Operation and Maintenance Cost

Unit: Thousand Yen

Year Labor Cost Expense Total

2019~2024 120,100 935,200 1,055,300

2025~2037 88,500 1,001,000 1,089,600

2038~ 89,600 1,201,100 1,290,700

Source: Study Team

5-7

5.2 Preliminary Economic and Financial Analyses

5.2.1 Preliminary Economic Analysis

(1) Methodology

The objective of the preliminary economic analysis is to analyze and evaluate the viability of

implementing this project from the viewpoint of the national economy. A comparative analysis of

the costs and benefits both in the case of executing the project ("With project") and not executing the

project ("Without project") is carried out. Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Benefit and

Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio) and Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) are estimated as the evaluation

indexes.

(2) Premises

The preliminary economic analysis is carried out based on the following premises.

Period of the Analysis: The period of the analysis is set at 34 years including the construction

period from 2015 to 2018, and 30 years of operation from 2019 to 2048.

Social Discount Rate: Social discount rate (SDR) of 12% is applied. All project costs and

benefits are discounted back at 12%. The EIRR is evaluated in comparison with the

opportunity cost of capital. In the analysis, SDR of 12% is applied as the opportunity cost of

capital.

Exchange Rate: The exchange rate is assumed to be 1.00 US$ = 7,851 Rupiah = 79.30 Yen

as of November 2011.

Economic Price: All figures are based on constant prices in 2011. All costs are classified as

imported products (foreign currency portion) or domestic products (local currency portion).

The economic costs are calculated excluding transferable items such as various taxes, import

duties and subsidies etc., from the viewpoint of the national economy. In order to translate

financial (market) cost into economic cost, Standard Conversion Factors (SCFs) are applied.

In this study, SCF as 0.80 and 0.85 for F/C portion and L/C portion are applied respectively

referring previous studies in Indonesia.

Inflation: It is not considered in the economic analysis.

Residual Value: The residual value in the last year (2048) of the analysis is counted as a

negative investment cost. The residual value is calculated based on the life cycle of the

facilities shown in Table 5-5.

Table 5-5 Life Cycle of Facilities

Item Duration

Civil structure 50 years

Building 50 years

E&M system 30 years

Rolling stock 30 years

Source: Study Team

(3) Results of Economic Analysis

1) Cases of the Analysis

In the analysis, costs and benefits are defined as the difference between the cases of "With

project" and "Without project". The cases are summarized as follows.

"With project" is the case in which the proposed system is implemented and passenger

transportation services are provided through the proposed route.

5-8

"Without project" is the case that the proposed project is not implemented and public

transportation is served by bus using existing roads. Investment costs of procuring buses

to satisfy future passenger demand in target area are counted in each vehicle operating

costs (VOC) as each depreciation cost.

2) Project Costs

Project costs consist of investment costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. All costs

are shown in economic price.

a) Investment Costs

The investment cost of "With project" (excluding land cost and consultant fee) is summarized in

Table 5-6. The additional investment cost in 2024 and 2037 should be considered based on the

increase in the number of train operation in the future.

Table 5-6 Construction Costs of "With Project" (in economic price)

Unit: ten million Yen

2015 2016 2017 2018

F/C L/C Total F/C L/C Total F/C L/C Total F/C L/C Total

Civil 266.0 547.1 813.1 291.8 710.5 1,002.3 291.8 710.5 1,002.3 58.6 128.5 187.1

E&M/

Rolling stock 349.0 57.6 406.6 523.5 86.4 609.9 587.2 103.4 690.6 215.1 30.1 245.2

Total 614.9 604.7 1,219.6 815.3 796.9 1,612.2 879.1 813.8 1,692.9 273.7 158.5 432.2

2024 2037

F/C L/C Total F/C L/C Total

Civil 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.3 199.4 275.6

E&M/

Rolling stock 198.7 0.0 198.7 275.3 2.7 278.0

Total 198.7 0.0 198.7 351.5 202.1 553.6

Source: Study Team

b) Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Costs

The operation and maintenance costs are calculated in Chapter 3.3 “Operation Plan”. Annual

operation and maintenance costs in economic price are estimated with SCF as 0.85. O&M costs of

"Without project" are counted in each vehicle operating costs (VOC).

3) Project Benefits

The quantified benefits of Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) savings and Transport Time Cost (TTC)

savings are estimated in the analysis.

a) VOC Savings

The VOC savings are calculated by taking the difference in vehicle-km between "With project"

and "Without project". The unit VOC for bus and car are estimated to be 108.2 yen/vehicle-km

and 32.2 yen/vehicle-km shown in Table 5-7.

5-9

Table 5-7 Estimation of VOC

Item Unit Bus Car Remark

(1) Lifetime year 10 8

(2) Annual running kilometer km/y 54,750 10,000

(3) Vehicle purchase cost ten thousand yen 1,101 200

(4) Vehicle purchase cost /km yen/km 20.0 25.0 =(3)/[(1)x(2)]

(5) Total personnel cost yen/y 645,600

(6) Handling hour km/person/y 16,000

(7) Personnel cost /km yen/km 40.0 =(5)/(6)

(8) Fuel consumption km/liter 2.2 15.0

(9) Fuel price yen/liter 94.9 86.9

(10) Fuel price /km yen/km 43.2 5.8 =(9)/(7)

(11) Lubricant price/km yen/km 0.2 0.2

(12) Tire cost/km yen/km 4.8 1.2

VOC yen/vehicle-km 108.2 32.2 =(4)+(7)+(10)+(11)+(12)

Source: Study Team

b) TTC Savings

To calculate the TTC savings for proposed system users and non-proposed system users, the unit

time value of passengers is estimated to be 67.5 yen/hour referring average annual income of

133,725 Yen and average working hour of 1,980 hour/y from “Indonesia Handbook 2011”.

In addition to the benefits mentioned above, other indirect benefits such as improvement of

regional transport, contributing natural and social environment and promoting regional

development are expected. As it is difficult to evaluate these benefits quantitatively, the value

figures are not shown. However, these are considered important factors in the decision for

adopting this project.

4) Economic Evaluation Indexes

The results of the preliminary economic analysis based on the above conditions are summarized in

Table 5-8. Details of the economic cash flow are shown in Table 5-10. As all the evaluation

values are found to be favorable, and this project is considered to be economically viable.

Table 5-8 Results of Economic Evaluation Indexes

(Social discount rate = 12.0%)

Economic Internal Rate

of Return (EIRR)

Benefit and Cost Ratio

(B/C Ratio)

Economic Net Present Value

(ENPV)

13.2 % 1.1 5,050 million Yen

Source: Study Team

5) Sensitivity Analysis

The project costs and benefits applied in the analysis include certain variations. Some margin is

assumed for these factors and by identifying the variation in results due to the margin, the stability

of project feasibility can be obtained as shown in Table 5-9. In the case of +10% increase in the

investment cost and O&M costs and -10% decrease in the benefits, the value of EIRR is not

satisfy the 12% of social discount rate, and is not economically feasible.

5-10

Table 5-9 Results of Sensitivity Analysis

Cost

Benefit -10% -5% 0% +5% +10%

+10% 14.5% 14.5% 14.4% 14.3% 14.3%

+5% 13.9% 13.9% 13.8% 13.8% 13.7%

0% 13.4% 13.3% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1%

-5% 12.8% 12.7% 12.7% 12.6% 12.5%

-10% 12.2% 12.1% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%

Source: Study Team

5-11

Table 5-10 Economic Cashflow


Seq.

No. Year

Project Costs Project Benefits Net

Economic

Benefits Investment O&M Total

VOC

saving

TTC

saving Total

-4 2015 1,219.6 0.0 1,219.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,219.6

-3 2016 1,612.2 0.0 1,612.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,612.2

-2 2017 1,692.9 0.0 1,692.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1,692.9

-1 2018 432.2 0.0 432.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -432.2

1 2019 0.0 89.7 89.7 127.0 710.7 837.7 748.0

2 2020 0.0 89.7 89.7 127.1 717.1 844.2 754.5

3 2021 0.0 89.7 89.7 127.2 723.5 850.7 761.0

4 2022 0.0 89.7 89.7 127.4 729.9 857.3 767.6

5 2023 0.0 89.7 89.7 127.5 736.4 863.9 774.2

6 2024 198.7 89.7 288.4 127.7 743.0 870.7 582.2

7 2025 0.0 92.6 92.6 127.8 749.6 877.4 784.8

8 2026 0.0 92.6 92.6 128.0 756.3 884.3 791.6

9 2027 0.0 92.6 92.6 128.1 763.0 891.1 798.5

10 2028 0.0 92.6 92.6 148.0 769.8 917.8 825.2

11 2029 0.0 92.6 92.6 148.2 776.7 924.8 832.2

12 2030 0.0 92.6 92.6 153.2 999.9 1,153.1 1,060.5

13 2031 0.0 92.6 92.6 153.4 1,007.6 1,161.0 1,068.3

14 2032 0.0 92.6 92.6 153.6 1,015.3 1,168.9 1,076.3

15 2033 0.0 92.6 92.6 153.7 1,023.1 1,176.9 1,084.3

16 2034 0.0 92.6 92.6 153.9 1,031.0 1,184.9 1,092.3

17 2035 0.0 92.6 92.6 154.1 1,038.9 1,193.0 1,100.4

18 2036 0.0 92.6 92.6 154.3 1,046.9 1,201.2 1,108.6

19 2037 553.6 92.6 646.2 154.5 1,055.0 1,209.4 563.2

20 2038 0.0 109.7 109.7 179.3 1,063.1 1,242.4 1,132.7

21 2039 0.0 109.7 109.7 179.5 1,071.3 1,250.7 1,141.0

22 2040 0.0 109.7 109.7 184.1 1,079.5 1,263.6 1,153.9

23 2041 0.0 109.7 109.7 184.3 1,087.8 1,272.2 1,162.4

24 2042 0.0 109.7 109.7 184.5 1,096.2 1,280.7 1,171.0

25 2043 0.0 109.7 109.7 184.8 1,104.6 1,289.4 1,179.7

26 2044 0.0 109.7 109.7 185.0 1,113.1 1,298.1 1,188.4

27 2045 0.0 109.7 109.7 185.2 1,121.7 1,306.9 1,197.2

28 2046 0.0 109.7 109.7 185.5 1,130.3 1,315.8 1,206.1

29 2047 0.0 109.7 109.7 185.7 1,139.0 1,324.7 1,215.0

30 2048 -1,921.0 109.7 -1,811.3 185.9 1,275.9 1,461.8 3,273.1

Source: Study Team

5-12

5.2.2 Preliminary Financial Analysis

(1) Methodology

The objective of the preliminary financial analysis is to evaluate the financial adequacy of the

project, irrespectively debt and equity. Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) on Project (Project

FIRR) and Financial Net Present Value (FNPV) are estimated as evaluation index.

(2) Premises

The preliminary financial analysis is carried out based on the following premises.

Period of the Analysis: The period of the analysis is set at 34 years including the

construction (investment) period from 2015 to 2018, and 30 years of operation from 2019

to 2048.



Financial Cost: All figures are based on constant prices in 2011. The cost for domestic

products is the market price including various taxes, and for imported products is the CIF

price with import duty, inland transportation cost and other fees. Although import duty is

not considered in the analysis assumed that preferential treatment tariff will be adopted to

imported products.

Inflation: Inflation is taken into consideration to local currency portion of investment cost

and personnel cost of O&M cost. From the central bank (Bank of Indonesia), the inflation

target of 2012 is 4.5% ±1%. In this analysis, the inflation rate of 4.5% until 2029, and half

of 4.5% after 2030 are adopted.

Residual Value: The residual value in the last year of the analysis is counted as a negative

investment cost. The residual value is calculated based on the life cycle of the facilities.

(3) Assumption of Passenger Fare

Referring the passenger fare of Transjakarta BRT (3,500 Rupiah), and considering additional value

(3,000 Rupiah) of proposed system such as passenger comfort, punctuality and speed, furthermore

taking inflation, passenger fare of 2019 (beginning year of operation) is assumed as follow.

(3,500 + 3,000) x 1.0458 = 9,240 ≒ 9,000 Rupiah

In addition, considering the inflation shown in (2) Premises, passenger fare is assumed to be

escalated as shown in 5-11. Furthermore, flat fare is adopted.

Table 5-11 Assumption of Passenger Fare

Year 2019~2023 2024~2028 2029~2033 2034~2038 2039~2043 2044~2048

Passenger Fare

(Rupiah) 9,000 11,200 14,000 15,600 17,400 19,400

Source: Study Team

(4) Evaluation Measure

The Project FIRR is evaluated in comparison to the Financial Opportunity Cost of Capital (FOCC).

In the analysis, the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) serves as a proxy for the FOCC

combined with the financial sources. For estimation of WACC, 85% of total investment cost is

covered by Japanese ODA loan (STEP) and remaining 15% would be prepared by Indonesian

government are assumed. Terms and conditions of Japanese ODA loan (STEP; general, tied) for

Indonesia (category; middle income class) are interest rate of 0.2% and payment term of 40 years

with grace period of 10 years. WACC for evaluation index is assumed as 1.1% from the above

financial form.

5-13

(5) Results of Preliminary Financial Analysis

a) Investment Cost

Construction cost of civil works (excluding land cost and consultant fee) and procurement of

E&M/rolling stock are considered as investment cost. The additional investment cost should be

considered based on the increase in the number of train operation in the future.

Table 5-12 Investment Cost (in financial price)


2015 2016 2017 2018

F/C L/C Total F/C L/C Total F/C L/C Total F/C L/C Total

Civil 332.5 767.5 1,100.0 364.8 1,041.6 1,406.4 364.8 1,088.5 1,453.3 73.3 205.7 278.9

E&M/

Rolling stock 436.2 80.8 517.0 654.4 126.7 781.1 734.0 158.4 892.4 268.9 48.2 317.0

Total 768.7 848.4 1,617.0 1,019.1 1,168.3 2,187.5 1,098.8 1,246.9 2,345.7 342.1 253.8 596.0

2024 2037

F/C L/C Total F/C L/C Total

Civil 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.3 418.3 513.6

E&M/

Rolling stock 248.4 0.0 248.4 344.1 5.7 349.8

Total 248.4 0.0 248.4 439.4 424.0 863.4

Source: Study Team

b) Revenue

Annual revenue is composed of passenger fare revenue and non-fare revenue. Fare revenue is

estimated from the number of annual passengers multiplied by passenger fare described in (3)

Assumption of Passenger fare. The non-fare revenue consists of relating business revenues such as

advertising revenue at the station and rental fees of commercial space. According to the

experiences of other Asian countries, non-fare revenue is assumed as 5% of fare revenue.

c) Expenditure

O&M cost is considered as expenditure in operation period.

d) Results of preliminary financial analysis

Table 5-13 shows annual demand, revenue and expenditure of representative years. The results of

preliminary financial analysis are shown in Table 5-14 and Table 5-16. As a result, the FIRR is

found to be 1.3% and is considered financially viable compared with 1.1% of WACC.

Table 5-13 Annual Demand, Revenue and Expenditure

Year Annual Demand

(thousand/y)

Revenue

(ten million Yen)

Expenditure

(ten million Yen)

2019 17,150 163.7 110.6

2030 24,150 358.6 120.1

2048 30,800 633.7 156.8

Source: Study Team

5-14

Table 5-14 Results of Financial Analysis

Financial Internal Rate of Return

(Project FIRR)

Weighted Average Cost of

Capital (WACC)

Financial Net Present Value

(FNPV)

1.3 % 1.1 % 2,820 million Yen

Source: Study Team

In the above financial analysis, some uncertain factors still remain in the adopted values

(investment cost, revenue and expenditure). In order to determine the financial stability of the

project, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to observe variations in the results by assuming

fluctuations in each value in accordance with their respective unreliability. The results of the

sensitivity analysis are shown in Table 5-15. The FIRR in the case of investment cost and

expenditure increase or revenue decrease, the Project FIRR would under the WACC (1.1%)

and not financially feasible.

Table 5-15 Results of Sensitivity Analysis

Expenditure

Revenue -10% -5% 0% +5% +10%

+10% 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.3%

+5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0%

0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8%

-5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5%

-10% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2%

Source: Study Team

5-15

Table 5-16 Financial Cashflow


Seq.

No. Year Investment Cost O&M Cost Total Cost Net Revenue Annual Revenue

-4 2015 1,617.0 0.0 1,617.0 -1,617.0 0.0

-3 2016 2,187.5 0.0 2,187.5 -2,187.5 0.0

-2 2017 2,345.7 0.0 2,345.7 -2,345.7 0.0

-1 2018 596.0 0.0 596.0 -596.0 0.0

1 2019 0.0 110.6 110.6 53.1 163.7

2 2020 0.0 111.4 111.4 53.8 165.1

3 2021 0.0 112.2 112.2 54.4 166.6

4 2022 0.0 113.0 113.0 55.1 168.1

5 2023 0.0 113.9 113.9 55.7 169.6

6 2024 248.4 114.8 363.2 -150.3 212.9

7 2025 0.0 116.5 116.5 107.3 223.8

8 2026 0.0 117.2 117.2 117.9 235.2

9 2027 0.0 118.0 118.0 129.1 247.1

10 2028 0.0 118.8 118.8 140.9 259.7

11 2029 0.0 119.7 119.7 221.5 341.2

12 2030 0.0 120.1 120.1 238.5 358.6

13 2031 0.0 120.5 120.5 240.8 361.3

14 2032 0.0 121.0 121.0 243.1 364.1

15 2033 0.0 121.5 121.5 245.4 366.9

16 2034 0.0 122.0 122.0 290.0 412.0

17 2035 0.0 122.4 122.4 292.7 415.1

18 2036 0.0 122.9 122.9 295.4 418.3

19 2037 863.4 123.5 986.9 -565.3 421.6

20 2038 0.0 149.5 149.5 279.4 428.9

21 2039 0.0 150.2 150.2 336.5 486.7

22 2040 0.0 150.8 150.8 344.3 495.1

23 2041 0.0 151.5 151.5 352.2 503.8

24 2042 0.0 152.2 152.2 360.3 512.5

25 2043 0.0 153.0 153.0 368.5 521.4

26 2044 0.0 153.7 153.7 437.7 591.5

27 2045 0.0 154.5 154.5 447.3 601.7

28 2046 0.0 155.2 155.2 457.0 612.2

29 2047 0.0 156.0 156.0 466.8 622.8

30 2048 -2,802.3 156.8 -2,645.5 3,279.1 633.7

Source: Study Team

Chapter 6

Planned Project Schedule

6-1

6.1 Overview

The implementation schedule lays out plans for the schedule from the issuance of this report through

the preparation stage, construction stage and operation commencement preparation stage until the

commencement of operation. Implementation schedule is shown in Table 6-1.

6-2

Table 6-1 Implementation Schedule

Source: Study Team

3 6 9 3 6 9 3 6 9 3 6 9 3 6 9 3 6 9 3 6 9 3 6 9 3 6 9

Submittal of APM system study report

1. Preparation Stage

(1) Selection of consultant

(2) Feasibility study

(3) EIA study and disclosure by Govt.

(4) Preparation of resettlement action plan

(5) Award of APM project by Govt.

(6) Process for loan agreement

(7) Basic design and construction plan

(8) Tender process for selection of contractor

(9) Tender preparation by contractor

(10) Tender evaluation and contract with contractor

(11) Land acquisition, resettlement

(12) Relocation of utilities

2. Construction Stage

(1) Mobilization

(2) Detailed design

(3) Structure work

(4) Station building work

(5) Depot construction work

(6) Depot facility work

(7) Signaling, communication and power supply system

(8) Rolling stock

(9) Running test and commissioning

3. Operation Preparation Stage

(1) Selection of management organization

(2) Recruitment and preparation of organization staff

(3) Preparation of operation rules and regulations

(4) Training and practice of operation and maintenance

4. Revenue Service Stage

20202012 2013 2014 2018 20192015 2016 2017

6-3

6.2 Details of Implementation Schedule

6.2.1 Preparation Stage

The preparation stage is the period of preparation work from after submitting the report for the

commencement of the project to the commencement of construction including bidding contract

work.

(1) Consultant Selection

After the examination of the APM system project is approved through the submission of this report,

the Indonesian government (Ministry of public works) will select consultants to implement

feasibility studies and EIA studies.

(2) Feasibility Study

Feasibility studies are implemented to examine the potential of the project.

(3) EIA Study

EIA studies will be carried out in the same manner and the results publicly released.

(4) Project Approval

The Indonesian government examines the results of the feasibility studies and EIA studies and

approves the implementation of the APM system project.

(5) Procurement of Funds

After approval of the APM system project, the Indonesian government will procure funding for the

project. And the PPP organization will procure the funding for the project.

(6) Basic Design and Construction Plan Creation

The project basic design and construction plans are created.

(7) Bid Preparation and Procedures

Books for bid materials are created based on the basic design and construction planning, and public

announcement of contractor selection and screening is carried out. In this stage, the bidding

procedure for the selection of PPP organization is implemented. After the examination, the PPP

organization selects the consultant by competitive bidding.

(8) Contractor Bidding Preparation

Contractors create bidding books.

(9) Bidding Results and Contracts

The period from bidding result evaluation, negotiation with contractors until contract is settled.

(10) Land Acquisition, Resettlement, Utility Transfer, etc.

Lands required for construction are expropriated and resettlement as required based on EIA study

results. At the same time, any utilities which interfere with construction are relocated. This must all

be completed before construction commences.

6-4

6.2.2 Construction Stage

The construction stage is the period for APM system construction, integration test, test running and

handover.

(1) Construction Preparation Period

Construction preparation period after contract is completed.

(2) Detailed Design

The period during which contractor detailed design is carried out. Construction is then implemented

after the detailed design by the consultant is approved.

(3) Structural Construction

The period of construction on superstructures and substructures. The construction work from this

period is divided into several intervals, and construction is then carried out in parallel.

(4) Station Building Construction

The period of station building construction. As with structural construction, construction on each

station is carried out simultaneously in parallel.

(5) Depot Construction

Construction period for overall depot foundation improvement, tracks, roadwork, operation control

building and inspection and maintenance facilities.

(6) Depot Facility Construction

Construction of facilities including depot inspection and maintenance plants, power supply facilities,

signal telecommunications and substations. Depot facility construction should be completed before

vehicle delivery.

(7) Power, Signal and Telecommunications System Construction

The period of construction on power, signal and telecommunications systems. After design, each

piece of equipment is manufactured at plants, then installed sequentially in completed structural

construction and station construction sections.

(8) Rolling Stock

APM vehicles are designed and manufactured at plants in Japan. The manufactured vehicles are

disassembled and transported, then delivered to the depot inspection and repair plants, reassembled

and then inspected and adjusted accordingly. The vehicle delivery period is expected to be 3 months

from the completion of the depot facility construction.

(9) Test Running and Handover

After the completion of structural construction and system construction, in order to verify that

operation can be carried out safely and reliably, individual system tests, comprehensive system tests,

test runs, driving test and other tests are implemented.

6-5

6.2.3 Operation Preparation Stage

During the operation commencement stage, APM system project operator selection, project

organization composition, and creation of various operation regulations are carried out.

(1) Selection of APM System Project Organization

The Indonesian government selects the operation and maintenance organization of the APM system.

(2) Securing Personnel and Project Organization Formation

The personnel required for the operation of the APM system are secured and the organization

required for the operation of the system is formed.

(3) Creation of Operation Regulations, Employment Regulations, Operation Schedule, Instruction

Manuals, etc.

The operation regulations, employment regulations, operation schedule, instruction manuals, etc.

required for APM system operation are created.

(4) Education and Training of Employees of Implementation Organizations

Education on operation regulations, employment regulations, operation schedule, instruction

manuals, etc. and training required for APM system operation are carried out for the APM system

employees.

(5) Operation Commencement Preparation

Preparation is carried out for commencement of operation.

6.2.4 Revenue Service Stage

The operating and maintenance organization carries out operation.

Chapter 7

Implementing Organization

7-1

7.1 Scheme for Project Implementation

The "Affermage" model of the Scheme-A shown in Figure 7-1 among the project schemes examined

in Chapter 9 is considered to have high project feasibility.

Figure 7-1 Project Scheme (Scheme-A: Affermage)

Source: Study Team

The above figure shows that project implementation organization which SPC borrows facilities from

the government based on the PPP contract, utilizes private know how at its maximum, and performs

the efficient transport service provision, fare collection, and operation and maintenance of facilities.

It is considered that private sector participation in management leads to creation of employment and

contribute to activation of economic activities. Thus, it will be desirable to undertake project through

government and private sector linkage, and clarifying government-and-private sector roles in each

project stage from work contents, its range, and private capability will lead to successful project.

Contract Management

Construction of Civil Structures,

Procurement of E&M and Rolling Stock JICA ODA Loan

Constructor

EPC

Contractor

Representation

PPP contract for

Operation and Maintenance

Foreign/Local

Investor

Investment

Bank

SPC

Passengers

O&M

Contract

O&M

Contractor

Fare

Repayment

PMU Loan

Service Viability Gap Fund

Indonesian Government

Asset

Civil structures

E&M

Rolling Stock

JBIC

Project Finance

PPP Contract Repayment

Repayment

EPC Contract

Construction Contract

Dividends

7-2

7.2 Project Competency of Implementation Organization

This project-execution organization is assumed to be the Bekasi regency of west Jawa State, and the

certification governing legal authority is assumed to be the Ministry of Transportation and

Directorate General of Railways, Ministry of Transportation. The Directorate General of Railways,

Ministry of Transportation is well versed in formalities as an implementation window of various

ODA projects including yen credit about the railroad projects in Indonesia, and is considered to have

project competency. However, for commercialization of this project, it will be important to examine

the important matters towards project implementation of Table 7-1.

Table 7-1 Important Matters towards Project Implementation

Important matters Contents of examination Viewpoints

Check of project

implementation plan

- Project purpose and necessity

- Check of precondition items

- Establishment of project

regulatory authorities

- Sharing in the organs

concerned of basic policies

Detailed examination

of commercialization

- Detailed study for project

components (checks of facilities

scale and demand by conducting

F/S )

- Determining basic policy for

facilities maintenance

- Arrangement of project promotion

issues

- User's-needs study

- Balance of demand and project

physical scale

- Project execution agency

Check of related laws

and regulations

- Examination of project related laws

and regulations

- Examination of PPP scheme related

laws and regulations

- Examination of preferential

treatment of taxation system

- Check of existing related laws

- Early establishment of the new

systems

Check of preconditions

- Compliance with environmental

guideline

- Selection of project scheme

- Examination of project profitability

- Financing of initial investment

- Deliberations and adjustment

of preconditions of approval

- Cost-benefit analysis

- Donor's requirement

arrangement

Arrangement of project

scheme

- Creation of implementation

schedule

- Selection of project scheme

- Setting of project scope and project

period

- Determination of whole project

schedule

- Examination of the PPP

implementation scheme

- Securing profitability

Adjustment of related

personnel and

interview survey

- Explanation of project scheme to

the concerned agencies

- Explanatory material creation to

donors

- Interviewing companies which

can take part in the project

Evaluation and

selection of project

implementation

schemes

- Quantitative analysis (efficiency)

- Qualitative analysis (securing of

quality)

- Comprehensive evaluation of the

project schemes

- Re-evaluation of the project

scheme

Setting of project

implementation schedule

- Future detail project schedule

- Specification, sharing / evasion

measures of risk

Source: Study Team

7-3

7.3 Roles and Risk Sharing between Public and Private Sector

Although raising private sector capital is indispensable, at present in many parts of Indonesia, overall

situation surrounding the financial aspect and the legal system aspect where international investors

and financial institutions can subscribe a long-term business fund is insufficient for PPP projects like

other Asian nations. Also, due to a complicated business scheme and obscurity of government and

private roles and risk assignment, and insufficient support scheme by public funds, it is reported that

PPP projects has higher difficulty as compared with general private investment projects.

In the position from the private sector side, when deviation between the recovery level of project

cost and the fare set up from the public utility charge policy etc. occurs, securing of the profitability

of a project becomes difficult and it makes the project unstable. It is necessary to eliminate this gap

and to strengthen marketability of the project for improving business potential. It is desirable to

apply Availability Payment method as one of these policies, Availability Payment is a compensation

paid to SPC offering public service which conforms to the predetermined standards regardless of

traffic volume of passengers and fare revenues from government, and is effective in reduction of a

demand risk and a fare setting risk. Role sharing between government and private sector in this

project is considered as shown in Table 7-2.

Table 7-2 Roles of Public and Private Sector

Public Roles Private Roles

- Preparation of Organization and legal

system for the APM system project

- Implementation of F/S and detailed

design

- Project approval

- Financing for infrastructure construction

- Selection of project implementation

companies and conclusion of the

concession contract

- Appropriation of land

- Deliberations and approval of the fare

system

- Re-examination of the land use plan along

the route

- Construction and system configuration

- Specification, evasion and imputation of

an assumed risk

- Project management and monitoring

- Examination of the project scheme

- Conclusion of the concession contract with

the government

- Specification, evasion and transfer of

operation & maintenance risk

- Operation & maintenance work

management

Source: Study Team

In operation implementation of this project, it is important to specify a risk, grasp the occurrence

causes and take evasion / transfer measures. Generally there are three kinds of risks in project risks,

(1) political risk, (2) commercial risk, and (3) natural disaster risk and (1) and (3) are treated as the

inevitable risks. Presumable risks in this project are shown in Table 7-3.

7-4

A risk in each stage is assumed beforehand, a pattern is created, and when neither evasion nor

imputation can be performed, it is important to establish the organization which takes all possible

measures for project success such as not going on to the next stage etc.

Table 7-3 Types of Risks

Stage Types of Risks Application

Common

Political risks

Change of power, parliamentary

recognition, etc. Inevitable risks

Regulations and approval risks Inevitable risks

Taxation system change risks Inevitable risks

Government support failure Inevitable risks

Economic risks

Price risks

Interest rate risks

Exchange risks

Funding risks

Social risks Protest by residents, environmental

problem, etc.

Partner risks Breach of contract by partners

Natural disaster risks

Earthquake, thunderbolt, fire, tidal

wave, typhoon, flood, eruption,

landslide, cave-in, epidemic,

contamination

Inevitable risks

Planning

stage Plan risks

Defects, such as soil survey at the time

of bidding

Latent defects

Bid participating risks (tender cost)

Construction

stage Construction risks

Land appropriation cost and delay Inevitable risks

Construction delay of access road etc.

Delay by the government side design

change Inevitable risks

Construction delay

Cost overrun

Requirement specification

nonconformance

Accidents under construction etc.

Operation

stage

Competition

infrastructure risks

Competition infrastructure construction

of adjoining land

Demand risks With no minimum demand guarantee

Fare setting risks Breach of contract matters, such as fare

amendment Inevitable risks

O&M risks

Rise of O&M cost

Rise of life cycle cost

Damage to institutions

Others

Breach of government contract Inevitable risks

Breach of contract by operating

companies

Source: Study Team

Chapter 8

Technical Advantages of Japanese Companies

8-1

8.1 Assumed Participation Form of Companies of Our Country (Equity participation, materials and equipment supply, management of institutions, etc.)

From the scheme assumed in Chapter 9, the positioning, roles and participation form of Japanese

companies are shown in Figure 8-1 and Table 8-1.

Figure 8-1 General Configuration of PPP Project

Source: Study Team

Table 8-1 Assumed Participation of Japanese Companies

Participation form Outline

Equity participant

/ Sponsor

When taking part in the planning as a sponsor, an additional role of

materials and equipment supplier or management and maintenance

may be possible.

Assumed types of industry: Trading companies, APM related

manufacturers.

Materials and

equipment supplier

Taking part in the planning as E&M of the companies of our country

and supplier of vehicle bodies is mainly assumed. As for the

implementation scheme, construction will be shared by the

government and the private sector, and the supply destination will be

divided into the Indonesia government and SPC.

Assumed types of industry: Trading companies, APM related

manufacturers.

EPC contractor

It is possible that the general contractor of our country takes part in

the planning as an EPC contractor. However, when plural EPC

contractors participate due to segmentation of the construction zone, it

may be understood that efficiency and profitability become low.

Assumed type of industry: General contractors.

Operation and

maintenance

(O&M)

Regarding software systems, such as operation and maintenance of

APM system, and education and training, support by Japan is

expected and participation of the urban railway operators of Japan can

be assumed.

Assumed type of industry: Japanese urban railway operators.

Source: Study Team

Special Purpose Company (SPC)

Equity participant / Sponsor

Indonesia Government


(O&M)

PPP Agreement

Equity participation Dividend

Materials and equipment supplier

EPC contractor

O&M Payment

Payment Payment Construction

Payment Materials and equipment

supply

Materials and equipment supplier

Materials and equipment supply

8-2

8.2 Advantages for Japanese Companies for Project Implementation (Technological side, the financial side)

8.2.1 Introductory Performances of APM System

In Japan, since Kobe's port liner was introduced as a driverless APM system for the first time in

1981, new routes have been opened in various places. As of 2011, seven routes shown in Table 8-2

are being operated as a medium capacity transport system in the city.

Table 8-2 APM System Introduction Performances in Japan

No. Business operators Lines Opened Line length

(km)

Number

of stations

1. Kobe New Transit Co., Ltd. Port-liner Line 1981 10.8 12

2. Kobe New Transit Co., Ltd. Rokko-liner Line 1990 4.5 6

3. Osaka Municipal

Transportation Bureau Nanko Port Town Line 1981 7.9 10

4. Yokohama New Transit

Co., Ltd. Kanazawa Seaside Line 1989 10.6 14

5. Hiroshima Rapid Transit

Co., Ltd. Astram Line 1994 18.4 21

6. Tokyo Waterfront New

Transit Yurikamome

Rinkai Line

(Yurikamome) 1995 14.8 16

7.

Bureau of Transportation

Tokyo Metropolitan

Government

Nippori Toneri Line 2008 9.8 13

Source: Study Team

APM vehicles overseas export performance is shown in Table 8-3. It can be said that the Japanese

companies have already had sufficient global competitiveness as it is also concentrating on

development of the vehicles for export as the following introductory performances show.

Table 8-3 APM Vehicles Export Performance for Overseas

No. Nations Line Opened Line length

(km)

Number

of trains

1. Republic of Singapore Sengkang Line 2002 10.7 18

2. Republic of Singapore Punggol Line 2004 11.8 23

3. Republic of Singapore Singapore Changi

International Airport 2006 6.4 16

4. Republic of Korea Incheon International Airport 2008 0.9 9

5. People's Republic of

China

Hong Kong International

Airport 1998 1.3 8

6. the United States of

America

Washington Dulles

International Airport 2009 3.5 29


America

The Hartsfield-Jackson

Atlanta International Airport 2009 2.3 12


America Miami International Airport 2010 1.1 20


America

Miami International Airport

(MIA) 2011 2.3 8

10. United Arab Emirates Dubai International Airport 2008 5.2 18

Source: Study Team

8-3

8.2.2 Advantages of Japanese Companies

As APM system related technologies, APM vehicles, dedicated track, signalling system,

communication equipment, power equipment, station facilities, train operation control system,

maintenance facilities, and workshops are listed. The engineering capabilities of Japan are very

highly evaluated as the performance of cases in recent years both in and outside the country show.

Also, the APM system supplied in and outside the country has secured a high level of safety.

For APM vehicles, development of vehicles for export is also underway which can be adapted for

individual requirement and specifications such as collision safety performance, and fire-resistant

standard practices of each route. Also, changes of the vehicles organization according to

transportation demand and changes of the exterior and interior design according to the operator's

needs are also possible. Software systems, such as management, control of maintenance, and

education and training, are also considered to be possible to support the first APM system

introduction in Indonesia by the high expertise and know-how of Japan, including the pilot run

before commencement of operation and maintenance training for staffs.

8-4

8.3 Necessary Measures in order to Promote Japanese Companies

Since the PPP project operator’s selection in Indonesia passes through international competitive

bidding, orders received by the Japanese companies are not guaranteed. However, the following

matters can be listed as measures required in order to promote Japanese companies receiving orders.

(1) Preferential treatment of taxation system

Between Indonesia and Japan, reduction of the rate of import duties has already been implemented

by the Japanese Indonesia economic partnership agreement (EPA). In this project implementation,

tariff rate reduction is desirable on the materials and equipment supply from Japan especially E&M,

or APM vehicles related equipment.

(2) Practical use of public finance of Japan

The yen loan and export financing of Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) which are

listed in Chapter 9 as financing methods promote supply of materials and equipment or technologies

from Japan, it is considered that practical use of such public finance is useful not only for the

Japanese companies but also the Indonesia government.

(3) Continuous support by Japan

Continuous involvement of the Japanese government and the Japanese companies from the

preliminary survey stage to the resulting project formation may lead to strengthening ties with

Indonesia. Furthermore, it is considered to be important for the Japanese companies to build

cooperation with the Indonesia companies who become local partners in the initial stage of the

project plan.

Chapter 9

Financial Outlook

9-1

9.1 Examination of Financial Source and Implementation Scheme

9.1.1 Implementation Scheme

For the implementation of this project, there are fully public project where public funds from the

public sector and a method where the private sector participates through a Public Private Partnership

(PPP) approach. PPP is a scheme where private sector funding, technologies, etc. are used for public

services. However in Asia, PPP is used for infrastructure project that commercially non-viable and

government support is essential, so it is difficult to obtain private sector participation in PPP projects

without government support.

Table 9-1 Project Commercial Viability and Funding Sources

Project commercial viability Potential for private sector

participation based on with/without government support

Funding sources

Extremely low commercial viability (non-integrating gap)

Obtaining private sector participation is difficult even with government support

Support from government of relevant country, ODA support from overseas

Commercially non-viable if there is no private sector and government cooperation (commercially non-viable)

Obtaining private sector participation is difficult without government support

Public private partnership

Commercially viable (Commercially viable)

Possible to obtain private sector participation even without government support

Privatization of project, etc.

Source: Study Team

In the "PPP Policy and Regulation in Indonesia" by BAPPENAS (Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan

Nasional) shown in Figure 9-1, the roles in Indonesian PPP between the public sector and private

sector are classified into 3 levels according to project profitability.

If the project profitability is "Financially NOT viable", construction of facilities is completely under

the jurisdiction of the government. If "Financially Marginal", the private sector also participates in

construction, however government assistance is necessary. "Regular PPP" where the private sector

carries out uniform handling from construction to operation is only applicable in "Financially

Viable".

Figure 9-1 Fund Procurement in PPP Schemes

Source: "PPP Policy and Regulation in Indonesia" Ministry of National development Planning /

BAPPENAS, 2011.02)

PPP with

Government support

Project Feasibility Scheme

1 Economically Viable

Financially NOT Viable

Private

Public

2

Economically Viable

Financially Marginal

3 Economically Viable

Financially Viable

Private

Private

Construction

Hybrid Financing

Regular PPP


Private

Public Private

9-2

Table 9-2 shows candidates for implementation schemes of proposed project. In this table private

sector participation is shaded and ranked highest public sector contribution. The private sector

establishes a special purpose company (SPC) to carry out the scope specified in the PPP contract for

participation in the project.

Construction jurisdiction is divided by civil works and E&M/rolling stock referring similar railway

cases. For standard railways, cases where further division can be made between E&M and rolling

stock can be considered, however for proposed system, E&M and rolling stock specifications are

closely linked, these are generally procured as a one package.

Table 9-2 Candidates for Implementation Scheme

Construction/Operation Division of Roles Construction O&M

Organization Scheme Public Sector Private Sector Civil works E&M/

rolling stock

Public Project Implemented by government as fully public project.

None Public funds Public funds

Public managed

organization

PPP with Government Support

A) Construction of civil works and procurement of E&M/rolling stock

O&M Public funds Public funds SPC

B)

Construction of civil works and part of procurement of E&M/rolling stock

Part of procurement of E&M/rolling stock and O&M

Public funds Public funds

Private funds

SPC

C) Construction of civil works

Procurement of E&M/rolling stock and O&M

Public funds Private funds SPC

Regular PPP D)

None Construction of civil works, procurement of E&M/rolling stock and O&M

Private funds Private funds SPC

Source: Study Team

In this study, the implementation schemes of scheme- A, B and C is examined.

As noted, in Asia PPP requires government support, and this project in particular is an urban

transport project with low profitability, so scheme-D, which has the private sector carrying out

uniform handling from construction to operation, is not viable. From Figure 9-1, assuming this

project falls into the "Financially Marginal", "PPP with Government Support" (Scheme-A, B and C)

would be applicable.

Similar to Scheme-A, it can be considered where a publicly managed organization carries out the

O&M project and the private sector serves as an outsourcer for that work. The project remuneration

received by the private sector is paid by the government, and both income and expenditures for

project activities are attributed to government accounting. The financial feasibility of this format can

be concluded to be the same as when a 100% ridership guarantee or availability payment by the

government is set as conditions for Scheme-A. Here, availability payment means a payment for

transport performance satisfying the required service level, and irrespective of demand and fare

revenue.

Scheme-B aims to mitigate funding procurement burden on the private sector during the construction

stage by having the government carry out a portion of E&M and rolling stock procurement, in turn

jump-starting private sector business motivation to participate in the project, thereby increasing the

9-3

pace of project implementation. E&M and rolling stock are procured together as a single package

proposed by the SPC and the costs incurred are shared by the government and private sector.

9.1.2 Typical PPP Financing Structure

In schemes A, B and C the government establishes a Project Management Unit (PMU) which

manages the project for the government. In addition, in the first PPP case in Indonesia (Central Java

coal fired power plant) for the long term payment capacity of the ordering party for the term of the

contract, the PPP support organization Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund (IIGF) established

by the government provided a government guarantee and it is desirable to have this same

organization provide the same function in this project as well.

The SPC which can best control the various risks at each stage of design, execution, operation and

maintenance management undertakes the relevant work, and the SPC works towards improving

project efficiency by centralizing all of these tasks. The SPC functions as an intermediary contract

contact point between the various companies and also functions as the contact point for procurement

of private sector funds as well as carrying out fund procurement from financial institutions in

addition to investments from participating companies. In addition, because each PPP project task is

passed through commissioned companies by contract, the SPC operation system and operating costs

are generally extremely compact.

Figure 9-2 Typical PPP Financing Structure

Source: Study Team

9.1.3 Scheme-A: Affermage

(1) Overview

A method where the consignor (government) carries out construction of facilities and the consignee

(private sector) operates the public service and manages facilities is called "Affermage" or

"Concession without construction". In this study to classify Scheme-B and D, Scheme-A is noted as

"Affermage".

Affermage differs from concession in that the required facilities, etc. are established by the consignor.

In addition, it usually has shorter contract terms than the concession. The majority of consigned

public services in France recently are carried out using this method. The structure of Scheme-A is

EPC

Contract

SPC

Banks

EPC

Contractor

Shareholders

Indonesian

Government

O&M

Contractor

PPP

Agreement

Operation &

Maintenance

Contract

Service

Contracts

EPC

Contract

Passengers

PMU

IIGF

Dividends +

Interest

Investment

Principal +

Interest

Service

Fare

Contract

Management,

Guarantee

Representation

Service

supplier 1

Service

supplier 2

Service

supplier 3

Service

supplier x

Financial

Contracts

Loan

9-4

shown in Figure 9-3. This figure assumes contribution of yen loans for the construction and

procurement of E&M/rolling stock under the government's jurisdiction.

Figure 9-3 Scheme-A : Affermage

Source: Study Team

The SPC borrows facilities from the government based on the PPP contract, and carries out

provision of services to passengers, fare collection and facility maintenance management. The

Viability Gap Fund (VGF) in the figure is an assistance fund for covering the gap between the

standard fare revenue at which the project is formed and the actual collectable fare revenue.

(2) Investment Costs of SPC

SPC investment applicable items are shown below.

1) Proposal Costs for Unsolicited Proposals

These are costs incurred by companies taking action and making a proposal to ministries and

municipalities when there is no request for such from the government ("unsolicited") in order to

implement projects which are not posted in the master plan created by the ministries and

municipalities as PPP projects. These costs are estimated to include feasibility study cost, EIA cost

and proposal creation costs.

In order to ensure fairness in procurement for unsolicited proposals as well, international

infrastructure PPP standards are followed, and international competitive bidding is carried out. In

Indonesia this has the merits that a special evaluation score is assigned to the same proposer, the

same evaluation conditions as the top bidder are applied, and FS cost, etc. assistance can be

provided even for unsuccessful bids.

2) PPP Bid Standard Costs

Preparations related to private company PPP proposals starts several months before public

offering and EOI (Expression of Interest). The time required for the PPP bidding process (from

Contract Management


Procurement of E&M and Rolling Stock JICA ODA Loan

Constructor

EPC

Contractor

Representation

PPP contract for


Foreign/Local

Investor

Investment

Bank

SPC

Passengers

O&M

Contract

O&M

Contractor

Fare

Repayment

PMU Loan



Asset

Civil structures

E&M

Rolling Stock

JBIC

Project Finance


Repayment

EPC Contract


Dividends

9-5

call for bidders to conclusion of contract) is normally 10-12 months for most open bid processes,

with more complex projects taking 24 months for an assumed average of 18 months.

In addition, costs for bidding are approximately 1% of the total construction costs per each bidder

resulting from costs such as internal personnel expenses, fees for legal personnel and financial

advisors hired from international law offices and major financial institutions as well as costs, etc.

from creation of materials necessary for studies, design etc.

3) Other

SPC establishment costs, education and training costs and finance formation costs will be

generated. SPC establishment costs are SPC establishment proceeding and general costs.

Education and training costs are costs for recruiting of personnel and their education and training

before the start of the project. Payment will be required for costs for invitation of overseas

engineers and personnel third country technical training, as well as power and materials costs

incidental to the education and training.

Finance formation costs are fees from financial institutions for forming project finances. This is

estimated at 1% of the amount borrowed from financial institutions.

(3) Issues of Scheme-A

1) In this scheme, facility construction is carried out by the government, and operation is

consigned to a private sector with project operation capabilities. Because the local

government does not have experience as a proposed system operator, this is appropriate for

the proposals of this scheme. On the other hand, more efficient project management can be

had with the SPC because VFM is optimized and maximized as a PPP and the project is

continually developed.

2) Because the private sector does not make any construction investment, compared to projects

which include construction, the private sector investment scale is small, however an internal

rate of return which stimulates investment is required. In addition, public sector exchange

and demand risk shares and viability gap avoidance necessity all exist in this scheme as

common PPP issues.

3) Both the government and the SPC require low financial cost fund procurement. In this

scheme, the SPC has no assets, so high project profitability is required as a project financing

guarantee.

4) Private sector organization selection is carried out as international competitive bidding in

accordance with PPP standards. In urban transport operation projects, French KEOLIS and

VEOLIA companies are major presences. The formation of a competitive SPC which takes

advantage of the country's experience and superiority in operation is necessary.

5) In order to increase the incentive for private sector business SPC participation, it is preferable

for participation in this project to be tied to acquisition of EPC contracts during next phase.

6) From the point of view of procuring public financing in Japan it is preferable for the Japanese

businesses to become major stakeholders in the project, such as E&M/rolling stock suppliers

or project operators.

9-6

9.1.4 Scheme-C: Concession

(1) Overview

Concession is a method where the consignor (government) consigns the construction, management

and operation of facilities along with provision of public services to a consignee (private sector). In

the contract with the consignor, the consignee carries out construction and installation of buildings

and facilities required for projects and provide public services for a specified period and usage fees

directly collected from users are treated as project remuneration. In this study Schemes-B and C is

under the concession category. Figure 9-4 shows the structure of Scheme-C.

In Scheme-C, as a PPP infrastructure project (discrete type) which provides ODA funding, the

government constructs civil engineering facilities as public works through ODA funding. The SPC

borrows facilities from the government based on the PPP contract in addition to procuring E&M and

rolling stock, and carries out provision of services to passengers, fare collection and facility

maintenance management.

Figure 9-4 Scheme-C: Concession

Source: Study Team

(2) SPC Investment Costs

SPC investment costs are E&M/rolling stock procurement costs, and preparation costs mentioned in

Scheme-A.

(3) Issues of Scheme-C

1) The funds of the SPC to procure E&M/rolling stock are an issue. High project profitability is

required as a project financing guarantee. In order to mitigate exchange and demand risks

and avoid viability gaps, assistance from the government is required for operation costs.

2) From the point of view of procuring public financing in Japan, it is preferable for the

Japanese companies to become major stakeholders in the project, such as E&M/rolling stock

suppliers or operators.

Contract Management

Construction of Civil Structures JICA ODA Loan

Constructor

Representation

Foreign/Local

Investor

Investment

Bank SPC

Passengers

O&M

Contract

O&M

Contractor

Fare

Repayment

PMU Loan



Asset

Civil structures

JBIC

Project Finance


Repayment


Dividends

PPP contract for EPC of E&M

and Rolling Stock,


EPC

Contract

EPC

Contractor

Asset

E&M

Rolling Stock

9-7

3) Efficient project management can be had with the SPC because VFM is optimized and

maximized.

4) In international competitive bidding for organization selection, in addition to providing

guidance on the E&M/rolling stock which utilizes the country's superior technology, it is

necessary to form an SPC which is competitive in terms of project operation capacity.

5) In order to increase the incentive for private sector business SPC participation, it is preferable

for participation in this project to be tied to acquisition of EPC contracts during next phase.

9.1.5 Scheme-B: Concessions (with minimum private share of investment cost)

(1) Overview

In Scheme-B, in order to mitigate the private share of investment cost, the procurement costs for

E&M/rolling stock are shared between government and private sector. The jurisdiction of the

government is a portion of civil engineering facility construction and part of E&M/rolling stock

procurement. The SPC is responsible for a portion of the procurement of E&M/rolling stock and

borrows facilities from the government based on the PPP contract, and carries out provision of

services to passengers, fare collection and facility maintenance management.

In this scheme public funds and private funds are invested as a PPP infrastructure project which

provides ODA funding. The investment format is integrated as it has private sector and public funds

invested in 1 area.

Figure 9-5 Scheme- B: Concessions (with minimum private share of investment cost)

Source: Study Team

(2) SPC Investment Costs

SPC investment costs are a portion of E&M/rolling stock procurement costs and preparation costs

mentioned in Scheme-A. The share ratio for E&M/rolling stock procurement cost between the SPC

Contract Management

JICA ODA Loan

Representation

Foreign/Local

Investor

Investment

Bank SPC

Passengers

O&M

Contract

O&M

Contractor

Fare

Repayment

PMU Loan



JBIC

Project Finance


Repayment

Dividends

PPP contract for EPC of E&M

and Rolling Stock,


EPC

Contract

EPC

Contractor

Property

E&M

Rolling Stock


Procurement of E&M and Rolling Stock

Constructor

EPC

Contractor Property

Civil structures

E&M

Rolling Stock

EPC Contract


9-8

and the government is examined in the financial analysis.

(3) Issues of Scheme-B

1) Compared to scheme C, the burden for construction investment for the private sector is

lessened. However, public sector exchange and demand risk shares and viability gap

avoidance necessity all exist in this scheme as common PPP issues.

2) The requirement for efficient project management by the SPC is a common issue with other

schemes.

3) In addition, the positioning of Japanese companies as important stakeholders, provision of

internationally competitive proposals and SPC formation, and preference for participation in

this project to be tied to acquisition of EPC contracts during Phase 2 extension, are the same

as in other schemes.

9-9

9.2 Public and Private Financing

9.2.1 Public Financing in Japan

Infrastructure projects require large amount of initial investment costs and the projects involve risks,

so it is difficult to finance by private funds. For those reasons, public financing plays an important

role. The public financing for supporting overseas infrastructure projects in Japan are divided into

ODA (Official Development Assistance) and OOF (Other Official Finance). Of these, the public

financing types that can be expected to be applied to this project are yen loan, untied loan and

project finance. Overviews are shown in Table 9-3.

Table 9-3 Public Financing in Japan Expected to be Applied to the Project

Type Overview Notes

ODA Yen

Loan

Aimed at economical development support and financial

support between governments.

When public funds and private funds are invested as a

PPP infrastructure project which provides ODA financing,

there is a traditional format where the investment areas are

classified and delineated (discrete type) and a format

where private sector and public funds are invested and

coexist in same area (integrated type).


project

Public funds of Scheme-A

Public funds of Scheme-B

(discrete type)

Public funds of Scheme-C

(integrated type)

OOF Untied

Loan

Loans made to foreign governments etc. where overseas

projects carried out in the country and facilities funding

loans in the form of untied loans which do not limit

suppliers. The purpose of the loan will be business

environmental considerations consisting of support of the

activities of Japanese companies. However, the loan

conditions are tight than for ODA.


project

Public funds of

Scheme-A, B and C

Project

Finance

Project finance is the loan for project implementation

based on the project assets and various rights on contracts.

Repayments are from only cash flow created by the

project (income), and there is no government, etc.

payment guarantee for repayment. This is different from

corporate financing based on the former borrower

finances, details and credit capability, and in principal

there is no payment guarantee for parent companies, etc.

Private funds for

Scheme-A, B and C

Source: Study Team

In Japanese ODA loan, Indonesia is categorized in middle income class, and applicable such as

STEP (Special Terms for Economic Partnership) and general terms (untied) loan. Although there are

some priority projects of transport sector in Indonesia. But Japanese ODA loan is valuable long-term

and low-interest financial source, and recommend to continuous consideration for adopting. An

untied loan of JBIC (Japan Bank for International Cooperation) is applicable for public fund.

Project Finance is financing scheme for private funds. JBIC’s export loan (Buyer’s credit (B/C),

Bank loan (B/L)) and overseas investment loans will be adopted as the project finance based loan

scheme. In Indonesia, JBIC has financing experiences with project finance base in steam-power

generation and mining development project.

9.2.2 Other Financial Sources

International financial institutions such as Asia Development Bank (ADB) and Islamic Development

Bank (IDB) etc are expected as financial sources. Generally, long-term fund of Indonesian

commercial banks are limited and difficult to use.

9-10

9.2.3 General Financing Sources

Financing sources and terms expected applying to general infrastructure project are shown in Table

9-4 respectively. Financing terms are determined based on the OECD arrangement and/or conditions

for each project, and detailed conditions such as interest rate and payment terms are considered by

financing institutions at the financing stage.

Table9-4 Financing Sources and Terms

Financing Source Terms and Conditions

1

Japanese

ODA Loans

(STEP)

Financing form:

Coverage:

Interest rate:

Payment terms:

Japanese ODA Loans (standard, tied)

Equivalent to 85% of total project cost.

Up to 30% of loan contract should be adopted

procuring equipment and service in Japan

0.20% (as of December 2011)

40 years with grace period of 10 years

2

Japanese

ODA Loans

(general terms)

Financing form:

Coverage:

Interest rate:

Payment terms:

Japanese ODA Loans (standard, untied)

By negotiation

1.40% (as of December 2011)


3 JBIC

(Untied Loans)

Financing form:

Coverage:

Interest rate:

Payment terms:

Japan Bank for International Cooperation

Untied Loan

By negotiation

1.075% (JPY)

1.184% (USD, LIBOR+0.375%)

(as of December 2011)


4 JBIC

(Export Loans)*1

Financing form:

Coverage:

Interest rate &

Payment terms:

Payment terms:

Buyer’s Credit (B/C)

Up to 60% of goods and services exported

1.19% (5 years)

1.36% (5 to 8.5 years)

1.57% (over 8.5 years)

(Interest rates mentioned above are applied in case

that payment terms are under 12 years. Fixed Yen

CIRR as of December 2011.)

Maximum 14 years

5

International

Financial

Institutions

Financing form:

Coverage:

Interest rate:

Payment terms:

Asian Development Bank (ADB),

Islamic Development Bank (IDB) etc.

By negotiation

2.85% (6 month LIBOR + fixed swap)

(reference value of ADB, as of December 2011)

By negotiation

6 Domestic Loans

Financing form:

Coverage:

Interest rate:

Payment terms:

Commercial banks in Indonesia

By negotiation

6.00% (policy rate as of December 2011)

By negotiation

7 Equity Participation Source:

Coverage:

Foreign/Domestic investment group

Generally 20% of project cost

8 Government Funds Source:

Coverage:

The central government of Indonesia

By negotiation

*1: Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, OECD

Source: Study Team

9-11

9.3 Cashflow Analyses

9.3.1 Preliminary Financial Analysis for PPP Schemes

(1) Methodology

The objective of the preliminary financial analysis for PPP schemes shown in Table 9-5 is to

evaluate the financial adequacy and management soundness by the operation body. Financial

Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) on Equity (Equity FIRR) from the viewpoint of SPC is estimated as

evaluation index according to the schemes implementing the project with private sector.

Table 9-5 Schemes and Evaluation Viewpoint

Scheme Outline Evaluation Philosophy

Scheme-A: Affermage

Public: construction of civil works and

procurement of E&M/ rolling stock

From the viewpoint of

SPC, Equity FIRR of

private share is

estimated, for

implementing the project

with private sector.

Private: O&M by SPC

Scheme-B: Concession

with minimum private

share of investment cost

Public: construction of civil works and

part of procurement of E&M/rolling stock

Private: part of procurement of

E&M/rolling stock

and O&M by SPC

Scheme-C: Concession

Public: construction of civil works

Private: procurement of E&M/rolling stock

and O&M by SPC

Source: Study Team

(2) Premises

The preliminary financial analysis is carried out based on the following premises.

Assuming the 20 years O&M contract, the period of analysis is set for 25 years including

the preparation (before PPP contract) from 2014, and 20 years of operation from 2019 to

2038.



Financial Cost: All figures are based on constant prices in 2011. The cost for domestic

products is the market price including various taxes, and for imported products is the CIF

price with import duty, inland transportation cost and other fees. Although import duty is

not considered in the analysis assumed that preferential treatment tariff will be adopted to

imported products.

Inflation: Inflation is taken into consideration to local currency portion of investment cost

and personnel cost of O&M cost. From the central bank (Bank of Indonesia), the inflation

target of 2012 is 4.5% ±1%. In this analysis, the inflation rate of 4.5% until 2029, and half

of 4.5% after 2030 are adopted.

Residual Value: The residual value in the last year of the analysis is counted as a negative

investment cost. The residual value is calculated based on the life cycle of the facilities.

Passenger Fare: Same conditions as 5.2.2 (3) Assumption of Passenger Fare

(3) Evaluation Measure

For the Equity FIRR, government bonds (10 year) of 6.2% as Indonesian long-term interest rate is

adopted for benchmark. This Equity FIRR means target level for investor to judge the investment,

and will vary among individual investors. It is difficult to define at this stage, therefore equity FIRR

9-12

of after 10 and 20 years from initial investment are indicated in the study.

(4) Financial Analysis for PPP Schemes

1) Scheme-A: Affermage

Scheme-A is adopted affermage that construction of civil works and procurement of E&M/rolling

stock are conducted by the government. O&M is conducted by private sector that borrowing

facilities from the government and paying 10% of total revenue as usage fee under assumption of

100% ridership guarantee by the government. O&M contract is assumed 20 years.

a) Investment Cost by Private Sector

Investment cost consists of the implementation of feasibility study and EIA, documentation of

proposal, preparation of tender and composition of SPC at the preparation stage. Construction cost

of civil works and procurement of E&M/ rolling stock are not included in this scheme.

Table 9-6 Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-A)


Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Preparation Cost 48.5 0.0 30.3 30.8 15.0

Source: Study Team

b) Revenue of SPC

Annual revenue consists of passenger fare revenue and non-fare revenue. The non-fare revenue is

assumed as 5% of fare revenue.

Table 9-7 Annual Demand and Revenue (Scheme-A to C)

Year Annual Demand

(thousand/y)

Fare Revenue

(ten million yen)

Non-fare Revenue

(ten million yen)

Total Revenue

(ten million yen)

2019 17,150 155.9 7.8 163.7

2030 24,150 341.5 17.1 358.6

2048 30,800 603.5 30.2 633.7

Source: Study Team

c) Expenditure of SPC

O&M cost and usage fee are considered as expenditure in operation period.

Table 9-8 Annual Expenditure (Scheme-A to C)


Year O&M cost Usage Fee Total Expenditure

2019 110.6 16.4 127.0

2030 120.1 35.9 156.0

2048 156.8 63.4 220.2

Source: Study Team

d) Financial Form of SPC

Financial form of SPC is assumed 30% of equity and remaining 70% would be debt. In this

analysis the interest rate of dept is assumed as 6.0% of domestic loans from commercial banks in

Indonesia with 10 years of repayment period.

9-13

e) Results of preliminary financial analysis

Results of financial analysis for scheme-A are shown in Table 9-9 and financial cash flow is

shown in Table 9-15. As a result, Equity FIRR of after 10 years from initial investment is 13.6%,

and considered favourable level.

Table 9-9 Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-A)

Equity FIRR

(including residual value)

After 10 years from initial investment (2023) 13.6%


Source: Study Team

2) Scheme-B: Concession with minimum private share of investment cost

Scheme-B is assumed that construction of civil works is conducted by the government, and

procurement of E&M/rolling stock is sharing with the public and private sector. O&M is

conducted by private sector that borrowing facilities from the government and paying 10% of total

revenue as usage fee under assumption of 100% ridership guarantee by the government. O&M

contract is assumed 20 years. In this scheme as a measure to reduce the private share at the

construction stage, the share of E&M/rolling stock is assumed 70% by the government and 30%

by the private sector. In total investment cost (including additional investment cost), this

assumption is equivalent to 90% by the government and 10% by the private sector.


Investment cost is composed of preparation cost mentioned in Scheme-A, and 30% of

E&M/rolling stock procurement cost. Life cycle of E&M/rolling stock is assumed 30 years and

the residual value in the last year of the analysis is counted as a negative investment cost.

Table 9-10 Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-B)


Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2024 2037

Preparation Cost 48.5 0.0 30.3 30.8 15.0 --- ---

E&M/Rolling stock --- 155.1 234.3 267.7 95.1 74.5 104.9

Source: Study Team

b) Revenue of SPC

Annual revenue consists of passenger fare revenue and non-fare revenue. (Same as Table 9-7.)


O&M cost and usage fee are considered as expenditure in operation period. (Same as Table 9-8.)


Same as Scheme-A, financial form is assumed 30% of equity and 70% of debt. The interest rate of

dept is assumed as 6.0% with 10 years of repayment period.


Results of financial analysis for Scheme-B are shown in Table 9-11 and financial cash flow is

shown in Table 9-16. As a result, Equity FIRR of after 10 years from initial investment is negative,

and of after 20 years from initial investment is still low.

9-14

Table 9-11 Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-B)

Equity FIRR


After 10 years from initial investment (2023) negative


Source: Study Team

3) Scheme-C: Concession

Scheme-C is assumed that construction of civil works is conducted by the government, and

procurement of E&M/rolling stock is conducted by private sector. O&M is conducted by private

sector that borrowing facilities from the government and paying 10% of total revenue as usage fee

under assumption of 100% ridership guarantee by the government. O&M contract is assumed 20

years.


Investment cost consists of preparation cost mentioned in Scheme-A, and E&M/rolling stock

procurement cost. Life cycle of E&M/rolling stock is assumed 30 years and the residual value in

the last year of the analysis is counted as a negative investment cost.

Table 9-12 Investment Cost of Private Sector (Scheme-C)


Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2024 2037

Preparation Cost 48.5 0.0 30.3 30.8 15.0 --- ---

E&M/Rolling stock --- 517.0 781.1 892.4 317.0 248.4 349.8

Source: Study Team

b) Revenue of SPC

Annual revenue consists of passenger fare revenue and non-fare revenue. (Same as Table 9-7.)


O&M cost and usage fee are considered as expenditure in operation period. (Same as Table 9-8.)


Same as Scheme-A, financial form is assumed 30% of equity and 70% of debt. The interest rate of

dept is assumed as 6.0% with 10 years of repayment period.


Results of financial analysis for Scheme-C are shown in Table 9-13 and financial cash flow is

shown in Table 9-17. As a result, Equity FIRR of after 10 and 20 years from initial investment is

negative, and would not be feasible in the period of analysis.

Table 9-13 Results of Financial Analysis (Scheme-C)

Equity FIRR




Source: Study Team

9-15

(5) Summary of Preliminary Financial Analysis

Table 9-14 show the summary of preliminary financial analysis of each scheme.

Table 9-14 Summary of Financial Analysis (Scheme-A to C)

Scheme A) Affermage (private

sector conduct only O&M)

B) Concession (with

minimum private share)

C) Consession

Outline Public: construction of

civil works and

procurement of E&M/

rolling stock


civil works and

part of procurement of

E&M/rolling stock


civil works

Private: O&M by SPC Private: part of

procurement of

E&M/rolling stock

and O&M by SPC

Private: procurement of

E&M/rolling stock

and O&M by SPC

Share of Civil Construction Public 100%

Private 0%

Public 100%

Private 0%

Public 100%

Private 0%

Share of E&M/

Rolling Stock Procurement

Public 100%

Private 0%

Public 70%

Private 30%

Public 0%

Private 100%

O&M by SPC

Asset of SPC none Part of E&M/Rolling

stock

E&M/Rolling stock

Financial Form of SPC Equity: 30%, Debt: 70%

Revenue of SPC Fare and non-fare revenue

Expenditure of SPC O&M cost and usage fee (10% of total revenue)

Target of Equity FIRR 6.2% of Indonesian long-term interest rate (10 years government bonds)

Equity FIRR (2023) 13.6% negative negative

Equity FIRR (2033) 38.7% 5.4% negative

Source: Study Team

In the schemes of “PPP with Government Support”, proposed system will manage efficiently by

private sector with previous experiences. In Scheme-A: Affermage, private sector will participate

only O&M field. From the result of analysis, this scheme evaluated appropriate approach for the

private sector that satisfies the target level of equity FIRR and possible to pay usage fee for the

government. Although for public sector, it is the task to fund raise long-term and low-interest

financing such as Japanese ODA loan.

Scheme-B: Concession (with minimum private share) assumed that government support 70% of

E&M/rolling stock procurement, equivalent to 90% of total construction cost. The equity FIRR

after 20 years from initial investment is still low level. Same to Scheme-C, it would not be

feasible in the period of analysis and is considered difficult to implement.

Those results are gained from financial analysis of preliminary study. Variation factors (such as

demand forecast and cost estimation) and assumptions (such as ration of equity/dept of SPC

and financing terms of dept) are included. Also target level of Equity FIRR is assumption for

this study.

9-16

Table 9-15 Financial Cashflow of Scheme-A


Project FIRR


Equity FIRR


After 10 years from commercial operation

(2028) 21.9 %

After 10 years from initial investment

(2023) 13.6 %


(2038) 27.2 %


(2033) 38.7 %

Source: Study Team

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038

Annual -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Profit & Loss Statement

Revenue 163.7 165.1 166.6 168.1 169.6 212.9 223.8 235.2 247.1 259.7 341.2 358.6 361.3 364.1 366.9 412.0 415.1 418.3 421.6 428.9

Expense 127.0 127.9 128.8 129.8 130.9 136.1 138.9 140.8 142.7 144.8 153.8 155.9 156.7 157.4 158.2 163.2 164.0 164.8 165.6 192.4

Depreciation 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Interest 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Profits before tax 3.5 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.9 74.0 82.6 92.7 103.3 114.4 187.4 202.6 204.6 206.7 208.7 248.8 251.2 253.6 255.9 236.5

Corporate tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Profits after tax 3.5 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.9 74.0 82.6 92.7 103.3 114.4 187.4 202.6 204.6 206.7 208.7 248.8 251.2 253.6 255.9 236.5

Benefits 3.5 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.9 74.0 82.6 92.7 103.3 114.4 187.4 202.6 204.6 206.7 208.7 248.8 251.2 253.6 255.9 236.5

Amount of benefit 3.5 8.2 13.9 20.8 28.6 102.6 185.2 277.9 381.1 495.5 682.9 885.5 1,090.2 1,296.9 1,505.6 1,754.4 2,005.6 2,259.1 2,515.1 2,751.6

Balance Sheet

<Assets>

Cash 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4 43.8 67.4 92.1 117.7 182.1 255.1 338.2 431.9 536.6 724.1 926.7 1,131.3 1,338.0 1,546.7 1,795.5 2,046.7 2,300.3 2,556.2 2,792.7

Fixed assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

　(Cumulative acuisition costs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

　(Cumulative depreciation) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Deferred assets 48.5 50.5 82.9 117.2 137.1 109.7 82.3 54.8 27.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

　(Cumulative payement) 48.5 50.5 82.9 117.2 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1

　(Cumulative depreciation of deferred assets) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 54.8 82.3 109.7 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1 137.1

Assets total 48.5 50.5 82.9 117.2 137.1 131.0 126.1 122.3 119.5 117.7 182.1 255.1 338.2 431.9 536.6 724.1 926.7 1,131.3 1,338.0 1,546.7 1,795.5 2,046.7 2,300.3 2,556.2 2,792.7

<Debt・Capital>

Balance 33.9 35.4 58.1 82.1 96.0 86.4 76.8 67.2 57.6 48.0 38.4 28.8 19.2 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capital 14.5 15.2 24.9 35.2 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1

Cumulative profit surplus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 8.2 13.9 20.8 28.6 102.6 185.2 277.9 381.1 495.5 682.9 885.5 1,090.2 1,296.9 1,505.6 1,754.4 2,005.6 2,259.1 2,515.1 2,751.6

Amount of debt+capex 48.5 50.5 82.9 117.2 137.1 131.0 126.1 122.3 119.5 117.7 182.1 255.1 338.2 431.9 536.6 724.1 926.7 1,131.3 1,338.0 1,546.7 1,795.5 2,046.7 2,300.3 2,556.2 2,792.7

Cash Flow

Profits after tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.9 74.0 82.6 92.7 103.3 114.4 187.4 202.6 204.6 206.7 208.7 248.8 251.2 253.6 255.9 236.5

Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Interest 0.0 2.0 2.1 3.5 4.9 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Investment cost -48.5 -2.0 -32.4 -34.3 -19.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Rise for operation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PROJECT Cashflow -48.5 0.0 -30.3 -30.8 -15.0 36.7 37.3 37.8 38.3 38.7 76.8 84.9 94.4 104.4 114.9 187.4 202.6 204.6 206.7 208.7 248.8 251.2 253.6 255.9 236.5

PROJECT IRR #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! -13.3% -2.5% 3.9% 8.1% 13.2% 16.5% 18.9% 20.6% 21.9% 23.4% 24.5% 25.2% 25.7% 26.1% 26.5% 26.8% 27.0% 27.1% 27.2%

Interest 0.0 -2.0 -2.1 -3.5 -4.9 -5.8 -5.2 -4.6 -4.0 -3.5 -2.9 -2.3 -1.7 -1.2 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Debt-repay 33.9 1.4 22.7 24.0 13.9 -9.6 -9.6 -9.6 -9.6 -9.6 -9.6 -9.6 -9.6 -9.6 -9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Balance 33.9 35.4 58.1 82.1 96.0 86.4 76.8 67.2 57.6 48.0 38.4 28.8 19.2 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EQUITY Cashflow -14.5 -0.6 -9.7 -10.3 -6.0 21.4 22.5 23.6 24.6 25.7 64.4 73.0 83.1 93.7 104.8 187.4 202.6 204.6 206.7 208.7 248.8 251.2 253.6 255.9 236.5

EQUITY IRR #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! 1.7% 12.2% 18.2% 22.0% 27.3% 30.6% 32.8% 34.3% 35.4% 36.7% 37.5% 38.1% 38.5% 38.7% 39.0% 39.1% 39.2% 39.3% 39.4%

9-17

Table 9-16 Financial Cashflow of Scheme-B


Project FIRR


Equity FIRR



(2028) -3.1 %


(2023) negative


(2038) 8.7 %


(2033) 5.4 %

Source: Study Team

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038

Annual -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20


Revenue 163.7 165.1 166.6 168.1 169.6 212.9 223.8 235.2 247.1 259.7 341.2 358.6 361.3 364.1 366.9 412.0 415.1 418.3 421.6 428.9

Expense 127.0 127.9 128.8 129.8 130.9 136.1 138.9 140.8 142.7 144.8 153.8 155.9 156.7 157.4 158.2 163.2 164.0 164.8 165.6 192.4

Depreciation 783.5 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Interest 39.5 35.6 31.6 27.7 23.7 19.8 15.8 11.9 7.9 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Profits before tax -786.4 -36.3 -31.8 -27.4 -23.0 56.9 68.9 82.4 96.3 110.8 187.2 202.4 204.5 206.5 208.6 248.7 251.0 253.4 255.8 236.4

Corporate tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Profits after tax -786.4 -36.3 -31.8 -27.4 -23.0 56.9 68.9 82.4 96.3 110.8 187.2 202.4 204.5 206.5 208.6 248.7 251.0 253.4 255.8 236.4

Benefits -786.4 -36.3 -31.8 -27.4 -23.0 56.9 68.9 82.4 96.3 110.8 187.2 202.4 204.5 206.5 208.6 248.7 251.0 253.4 255.8 236.4

Amount of benefit -786.4 -822.7 -854.5 -881.9 -904.9 -848.0 -779.1 -696.7 -600.4 -489.6 -302.3 -99.9 104.6 311.2 519.8 768.5 1,019.5 1,272.9 1,528.7 1,765.1

Balance Sheet

<Assets>

Cash 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -68.7 -132.9 -192.6 -247.9 -298.7 -307.5 -304.3 -287.6 -257.0 -211.9 -24.5 178.1 382.8 589.5 798.2 1,047.0 1,298.2 1,551.8 1,807.7 2,044.2

Fixed assets 0.0 155.1 389.4 657.2 752.3 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3

　(Cumulative acuisition costs) 0.0 155.1 389.4 657.2 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3 752.3

　(Cumulative depreciation) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 745.8 746.0 746.3 746.5 746.7 746.9 747.1 747.3 747.5 747.6 747.8 747.9 748.1 748.2 748.4 748.5 748.6 748.8 748.9 749.0

Deferred assets 48.5 50.5 89.5 140.4 188.8 151.1 113.3 75.5 37.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



Assets total 48.5 205.6 478.9 797.5 941.1 88.9 -13.4 -111.1 -204.3 -293.2 -302.2 -299.1 -282.6 -252.2 -207.2 -20.0 182.5 387.0 593.5 802.1 1,050.8 1,301.8 1,555.3 1,811.1 2,047.4

<Debt・Capital>

Balance 33.9 143.9 335.2 558.3 658.8 592.9 527.0 461.1 395.3 329.4 263.5 197.6 131.8 65.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capital 14.5 61.7 143.7 239.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3 282.3

Cumulative profit surplus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -786.4 -822.7 -854.5 -881.9 -904.9 -848.0 -779.1 -696.7 -600.4 -489.6 -302.3 -99.9 104.6 311.2 519.8 768.5 1,019.5 1,272.9 1,528.7 1,765.1

Amount of debt+capex 48.5 205.6 478.9 797.5 941.1 88.9 -13.4 -111.1 -204.3 -293.2 -302.2 -299.1 -282.6 -252.2 -207.2 -20.0 182.5 387.0 593.5 802.1 1,050.8 1,301.8 1,555.3 1,811.1 2,047.4

Cash Flow

Profits after tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -786.4 -36.3 -31.8 -27.4 -23.0 56.9 68.9 82.4 96.3 110.8 187.2 202.4 204.5 206.5 208.6 248.7 251.0 253.4 255.8 236.4

Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 783.5 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Interest 0.0 2.0 8.6 20.1 33.5 39.5 35.6 31.6 27.7 23.7 19.8 15.8 11.9 7.9 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Investment cost -48.5 -157.1 -273.3 -318.6 -143.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


PROJECT Cashflow -48.5 -155.1 -264.6 -298.5 -110.1 36.7 37.3 37.8 38.3 38.7 76.8 84.9 94.4 104.4 114.9 187.4 202.6 204.6 206.7 208.7 248.8 251.2 253.6 255.9 236.5

PROJECT IRR #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #DIV/0! #NUM! #DIV/0! -13.1% -9.0% -5.8% -3.2% -0.3% 1.8% 3.4% 4.6% 5.6% 6.5% 7.2% 7.8% 8.3% 8.7%

Interest 0.0 -2.0 -8.6 -20.1 -33.5 -39.5 -35.6 -31.6 -27.7 -23.7 -19.8 -15.8 -11.9 -7.9 -4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Debt-repay 33.9 110.0 191.3 223.1 100.5 -65.9 -65.9 -65.9 -65.9 -65.9 -65.9 -65.9 -65.9 -65.9 -65.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Balance 33.9 143.9 335.2 558.3 658.8 592.9 527.0 461.1 395.3 329.4 263.5 197.6 131.8 65.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EQUITY Cashflow -14.5 -47.1 -82.0 -95.6 -43.1 -68.7 -64.2 -59.7 -55.3 -50.9 -8.8 3.2 16.7 30.6 45.1 187.4 202.6 204.6 206.7 208.7 248.8 251.2 253.6 255.9 236.5

EQUITY IRR #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -1.9% 1.5% 3.7% 5.3% 6.8% 7.9% 8.7% 9.4% 9.9%

9-18

Table 9-17 Financial Cashflow of Scheme-C


Project FIRR


Equity FIRR



(2028) negative


(2023) negative


(2038) 0.7 %


(2033) negative

Source: Study Team

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038

Annual -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20


Revenue 163.7 165.1 166.6 168.1 169.6 212.9 223.8 235.2 247.1 259.7 341.2 358.6 361.3 364.1 366.9 412.0 415.1 418.3 421.6 428.9

Expense 127.0 127.9 128.8 129.8 130.9 136.1 138.9 140.8 142.7 144.8 153.8 155.9 156.7 157.4 158.2 163.2 164.0 164.8 165.6 192.4

Depreciation 2,563.0 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Interest 118.3 106.5 94.7 82.8 71.0 59.2 47.3 35.5 23.7 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Profits before tax -2,644.6 -131.4 -119.0 -106.7 -94.4 17.5 37.4 58.7 80.6 102.9 187.2 202.4 204.5 206.5 208.6 248.7 251.0 253.4 255.8 236.4

Corporate tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Profits after tax -2,644.6 -131.4 -119.0 -106.7 -94.4 17.5 37.4 58.7 80.6 102.9 187.2 202.4 204.5 206.5 208.6 248.7 251.0 253.4 255.8 236.4

Benefits -2,644.6 -131.4 -119.0 -106.7 -94.4 17.5 37.4 58.7 80.6 102.9 187.2 202.4 204.5 206.5 208.6 248.7 251.0 253.4 255.8 236.4

Amount of benefit -2,644.6 -2,776.0 -2,895.0 -3,001.6 -3,096.0 -3,078.5 -3,041.1 -2,982.4 -2,901.8 -2,798.9 -2,611.6 -2,409.2 -2,204.7 -1,998.1 -1,789.5 -1,540.9 -1,289.8 -1,036.4 -780.6 -544.2

Balance Sheet

<Assets>

Cash 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -278.8 -545.2 -799.3 -1,041.0 -1,270.5 -1,450.0 -1,609.6 -1,747.9 -1,864.3 -1,958.4 -1,771.0 -1,568.4 -1,363.7 -1,157.1 -948.3 -699.5 -448.3 -194.8 61.2 297.7

Fixed assets 0.0 517.0 1,298.1 2,190.5 2,507.6 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3

　(Cumulative acuisition costs) 0.0 517.0 1,298.1 2,190.5 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6 2,507.6

　(Cumulative depreciation) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,501.1 2,501.3 2,501.6 2,501.8 2,502.0 2,502.2 2,502.4 2,502.6 2,502.8 2,502.9 2,503.1 2,503.2 2,503.4 2,503.5 2,503.7 2,503.8 2,503.9 2,504.1 2,504.2 2,504.3

Deferred assets 48.5 50.5 104.7 194.4 309.5 247.6 185.7 123.8 61.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



Assets total 48.5 567.6 1,402.8 2,384.9 2,817.1 -24.7 -353.3 -669.5 -973.4 -1,264.9 -1,444.6 -1,604.4 -1,742.9 -1,859.5 -1,953.8 -1,766.5 -1,564.1 -1,359.6 -1,153.0 -944.4 -695.7 -444.7 -191.3 64.5 300.9

<Debt・Capital>

Balance 33.9 397.3 981.9 1,669.4 1,971.9 1,774.7 1,577.6 1,380.4 1,183.2 986.0 788.8 591.6 394.4 197.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capital 14.5 170.3 420.8 715.5 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1 845.1

Cumulative profit surplus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,644.6 -2,776.0 -2,895.0 -3,001.6 -3,096.0 -3,078.5 -3,041.1 -2,982.4 -2,901.8 -2,798.9 -2,611.6 -2,409.2 -2,204.7 -1,998.1 -1,789.5 -1,540.9 -1,289.8 -1,036.4 -780.6 -544.2

Amount of debt+capex 48.5 567.6 1,402.8 2,384.9 2,817.1 -24.7 -353.3 -669.5 -973.4 -1,264.9 -1,444.6 -1,604.4 -1,742.9 -1,859.5 -1,953.8 -1,766.5 -1,564.1 -1,359.6 -1,153.0 -944.4 -695.7 -444.7 -191.3 64.5 300.9

Cash Flow

Profits after tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2,644.6 -131.4 -119.0 -106.7 -94.4 17.5 37.4 58.7 80.6 102.9 187.2 202.4 204.5 206.5 208.6 248.7 251.0 253.4 255.8 236.4

Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,563.0 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Interest 0.0 2.0 23.8 58.9 100.2 118.3 106.5 94.7 82.8 71.0 59.2 47.3 35.5 23.7 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Investment cost -48.5 -519.1 -835.2 -982.1 -432.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


PROJECT Cashflow -48.5 -517.0 -811.4 -923.2 -332.0 36.7 37.3 37.8 38.3 38.7 76.8 84.9 94.4 104.4 114.9 187.4 202.6 204.6 206.7 208.7 248.8 251.2 253.6 255.9 236.5

PROJECT IRR #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -8.3% -6.4% -4.8% -3.6% -2.4% -1.4% -0.6% 0.1% 0.7%

Interest 0.0 -2.0 -23.8 -58.9 -100.2 -118.3 -106.5 -94.7 -82.8 -71.0 -59.2 -47.3 -35.5 -23.7 -11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Debt-repay 33.9 363.4 584.6 687.5 302.5 -197.2 -197.2 -197.2 -197.2 -197.2 -197.2 -197.2 -197.2 -197.2 -197.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Balance 33.9 397.3 981.9 1,669.4 1,971.9 1,774.7 1,577.6 1,380.4 1,183.2 986.0 788.8 591.6 394.4 197.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EQUITY Cashflow -14.5 -155.7 -250.6 -294.6 -129.6 -278.8 -266.4 -254.1 -241.7 -229.4 -179.5 -159.6 -138.3 -116.4 -94.1 187.4 202.6 204.6 206.7 208.7 248.8 251.2 253.6 255.9 236.5

EQUITY IRR #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -1.7%

Chapter 10

Action Plan and Issues

10-1

10.1 Approaches towards Realization of the Project

10.1.1 The Project Explanation and Cooperation Request to Concerned Organizations

When this project was explained to development developers of the region for this project including

the president of MM2100 industrial town, the president of Bekasi Fajar industrial estate (local

partner of MM2100 industrial town), and the president of the Jababeka industrial park, they have

recognized that necessity of a rail transit system to be introduced for dissolution of road traffic

congestion in the study areas, and accepted the cooperation for request of investigation.

Also, this project was explained to Governor of Bekasi regency and Regional body for planning and

development (BAPPEDA; Badan Perencana Pembangunan Daerah), and approval has been

obtained.

10.1.2 Study Group Considerations

Japan Transportation Planning Association of the cosponsor corporation of the study launched the

independent study group in 2011, and the examination of the overseas deployment of the packed

type infrastructure proposals for the APM system in cooperation with makers, trading companies,

and consultant members of the association is in progress. The APM system of Japan have achieved

many track records and are competitive overseas, therefore continued overseas expansion in the

future first requires finding opportunities, doing the feasibility study to supply infrastructure

improvement, vehicles, signaling, telecommunication, electric power, etc. Also important is

management and maintenance operation for future overseas expansion. This project aims at early

realization in the above-mentioned study group and it was determined to examine by the

"investigations, such as utilization-of-private-sector infrastructure proposal formation". Through the

study section meeting over the last year, examination is in progress towards implementation of

in-depth investigation now as preparation for advancing the study to the next stage (feasibility

study).

10-2

10.2 Approaches of Indonesian Government and Concerned Organizations towards Realization of the Project

Since this project was explained to the counterpart organizations for the first time at the time of the

first field survey, there is no specific sign towards realization of the project at present. However, on

the whole, it is cooperative with this project, and the following description of related issues made

during meeting are shown below.

10.2.1 National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS)

Examination is in progress at the P3CU (Public Private Partnership Central Unit) for the purpose of

attaining simplification and increase in efficiency of the procedure of the PPP scheme now. It is

supposed to prepare how government guarantee and support (Viability Gap Fund etc.) should be, the

project coordination institution for PPP scheme creation, establishment of government guarantees

and various systems towards promotion of the scope of the PPP. In Indonesia, there are few

examples of successes in the PPP scheme, and if the above-mentioned measures will make progress,

it is considered that applicability will be possible in the business scheme of this project.

10.2.2 Directorate General of Railways, Ministry of Transportation

A possibility of becoming a governing legal authority of this project is high, and explanation that

cooperation support is offered about this project coordination from the vice-minister was made.

10.2.3 Bekasi Regency

Realization of this project is expected in Bekasi regency in the target area of this project and the

Bekasi regency shows interest to taking part in the planning as an operating body.

10-3

10.3 Existence of Legal / Financial Constraints of Indonesia

In implementation of this project, there are the following issues, mainly from viewpoint of an

improvement of the PPP related laws.

It is assumed to take two years or more for the PPP operator determination from public

announcement of proposal information and EOI (Expression of Interest), and speeding up of

procedures is required.

As for the project which require land acquisition, although revision was made so that ministries

and autonomous bodies purchase land before competitive bid, the negotiation problem with

landowners, etc. have occurred in practice, and further legal revision is implemented.

According to the plan, 65% of the revenue source of the infrastructure improvement of

US$ 1,430 million is financed with private capital in middle development planning from 2010 to

2014, and the government coffer has restrictions.

In Indonesia, the infrastructure improvement by PPP does not have a track record other than electric

power plants, and the Indonesia government and private sector side generally must be cautious about

the urban transport proposals of low profitability.

About the competency and the system of the PPP operation, since it is in a developing stage, it

cannot but become a proposal of a pilot implementation scheme in the urban railway sector.

However, it is considered to be significant to implement positioning the project as a pilot project in

Indonesia as evidenced that nine railroad proposals are listed as "Potential Project" in the PPP Book

2011-2014.

It is considered that constraints on the Indonesia government coffer and the presence of the

above-mentioned PPP operation track records are the same also in other Asian nations, and it is

compensated by practical use of public finance and effective business operation.

10-4

10.4 Necessity of Additional Detail Analysis

Each results of the study summarized in this report are a preliminary examination and an analysis

result and need to also consider changes of the situation of Indonesia and the area concerned

continuously and to carry out a detailed feasibility study taking into account the following

viewpoints.

Examination of project implementation scheme: The study was verified from preliminary studies

of two or more typical implementation schemes also containing public works projects. It is

considered that furthermore, it is necessary to include re-evaluation of an implementation

scheme to clarify appropriate roles and risk assignment of the government and private sector in a

detailed analysis stage. Although it is also expected as a result of a re-evaluation that

government and private sector roles and financing method differ from the main study result, it

should be examined flexibly.

Adjustment with future development planning: In the area concerned, development planning of

the industry and the commercial area by local developers play important roles together with the

city master plan of the government level. While it is considered in the demand forecast and route

location selection, it is important to collect substantial information about changes of a plan, or

its progress status in future as well.

Adjustment with government agencies: As for tax exemption at the time of materials and

equipment procurement and adaptation of preferential treatment to operation bodies, it is

necessary to examine its possibilities through a hearing to the government agencies.

A detailed demand forecast and cost addition: After carrying out more in-depth demand forecast,

and estimation of construction costs and operation and maintenance costs in detail, it is

necessary to conduct economic and financial analysis.

In addition, for detailed study in the next stage, application of detailed study scheme through the

technical assistance of Japanese government is effective and it is desirable to offer continuous

support by Japan to the realization of the project.

Documents

STUDY ON NEW URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PROJECT