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Study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2013 Study on the Highway Bridge in the New Urban Area of Hai Phong, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Final Report SUMMARYFebruary 2014 Prepared for: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Ernst & Young Shin Nihon LLC Japan External Trade Organization Prepared by: Chodai Co., Ltd. IHI Infrastructure Systems Co., Ltd. Mitsubishi Corporation Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation

Study on the Highway Bridge in the New Urban Area of … · However, due to monetary restraint by the Vietnamese government for inflation control, the ... Road Standard: TCVN 4054:

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Study on Economic Partnership Projects

in Developing Countries in FY2013

Study on the Highway Bridge in the New Urban Area

of Hai Phong, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam

Final Report

【SUMMARY】

February 2014

Prepared for:

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Ernst & Young Shin Nihon LLC

Japan External Trade Organization

Prepared by:

Chodai Co., Ltd.

IHI Infrastructure Systems Co., Ltd.

Mitsubishi Corporation

Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation

(1) Background and Necessity of the Project

1) Background of the Project

The socialist Republic of Viet Nam (hereinafter referred to as “Vietnam”) enacted the Doi Moi (Renovation Policy

in 1986 and began obtaining its effects around 1989. After that, economic grouth in Vietnam continued as high as

9% for the years of 1995 and 1996. In 1997, however, tendencies such as slow-down of the growth rate surfaced

and foreign direct investment abruptly decreased under the impact of the Asian economic crisis, thereby decreasing

the growth of rate to 4.8% in 1999. In 2010, the growth rate recovered to 6.8%, the level before the crisis, because

the governmental policies of economic stimulus and monetary easing (interest rate of 4%) worked well, which came

into effect in 2009. However, due to monetary restraint by the Vietnamese government for inflation control, the

growth rate slowed down to 5.9%. The economic growth rate of Vietnam in 2012 was 5.0%, which was below both

the government’s original goal of 6.0% and the downward-revised goal of 5.2%. On the other hand, the raise of

consumer price index remained 9.2% in yearly average, lower than the government goal of 10.0%. Exchange rate

against US dollars maintains 20,800 (VND (Vietnam Dong) / USD (US Dollar)). These infer that the

macroeconomy of Vietnam remains stable. Trade balance turned to surplus after 19 years.

Hai Phong city is the third largest city of Vietnam, located in the northern part of the country, approximately

100km away in the east side from Ha Noi.

Hai Phong city is proceeding the urban development based on “the Amendment of Haiphong Construction

Master Plan to 2025 and Vision to 2050” (approved by the prime minister in September 2009). This master

plan aims to develop Hai Phong city to be a modern industrial city based on science technologies, targeting to

urbanize 90 ~ 95% of the city.

Figure S1 Hai Phong City Master Plan

Source: Hai Phong City Master Plan

2) Necessity of the Project

The master plan includes the followings:

k

m

Development area

Industrial area

Government/

Public facility

Lach Huyen port Ha Noi –Hai Phong Expressway

Cam river Dinh Vu industrial parks

Existing city area

Cat Bi airport

North urban development area

Nomura-Haiphong Ind. zone

3rd ring road

2nd ring road

• Port development-demolition of existing Hai Phong port and its function relocation to Dimh Vu port and

Lach Huyen port.

• Urban development–development of urban area in the north of Cam river and relocation of administrative areas.

• Development of large industrial parks in Dinh Vu area and the north area of Cam river– in addition to the

existing Nomura-Haiphong Industrial Zone.

• Diversification of means of transport such as:

Formulation of highway network – such as Ha Noi–Hai Phong Expressway, 2nd and 3rd ring roads

Internationalization of Cat Bi airport and new construction of Tien Lang airport

The Project intends to secure the linkage for the newly developed city area at the north of Hai Phong city

among the existing city area and new city area including administrative district embracing approximately

200,000 of daytime population, securing access function ring roads and urban arterial highways with two of

long span bridges such as Vu Yen bridge and Nguyen Trai bridge and additionally intends to aim for

promotion of urban development and enticement/functional extension of industrial campus, for which

Japanese firms would participate, based on access improvement for Lach Huyen port being constructed by

Japan's ODA. Herein, further economic growth will be advanced, improving road traffic network of Hai

Phong city in conjunction with precedent infrastructure development of ocean, sky and river.

In case that the Project is not be implemented, because the existing urban arterial highways crossing Cam river

between new and old city areas are only connected by Binh bridge constructed by Japan's ODA in 2005,

cable-stayed bridge with 4 lanes, and Kien bridge constructed by Japan's yen loan in 2003, cable-stayed bridge with

2 lanes, the pre-feasibility study implemented by AECOM in 2013 reported that serious stagnation of urban

function would be caused due to excess of allowable traffic volume of the existing bridges as of 2025 against

increased vehicle volume resulted by development of new city area, north side industrial campus and new

administrative district. The traffic jam caused by shortage of crossing-river bridges will affects the lives of Japanese

and local workers in Japanese firms constituting majority of the new industrial campus, which may bring economic

losses such as reduction of logistics and productivity. Therefore, adequate securement of commuting traffic network

as well as urban arterial highway aiming for efficient logistics to Lach Huyen port is requisite development.

Figure S2 Project location

Source: Hai Phong City Master Plan

Photo-S1 shows the north development area model in VSIP office. The project location of Nguyen Trai bridge

and Vu yen bridge is shown in Photo-S2, S3. The Construction condition of Ha Noi-Hai Phohg Expressway

which the south approach of Vu Yen Bridge will be connected is shown in Photo-S4.

Photo S1 North Development Area Model Photo S2 Project Location of Nguyen Trai Bridge

Source: Study Team

Source: Study Team

Photo S3 Project Location of Vu Yen Bridge Photo S4 The Construction condition of Ha Noi-Hai

Phohg Expressway

Source: Study Team

Source: Study Team

(2) Basic Policy for determining the contents of the project

1) Scope of the Project

The target two bridges are defined as important installations of the ring road plan of Hai Phong city and are located on

the major route on the basis of the city development master plan "Amendment of Hai Phong Construction Master Plan

to 2025 and Vision to 2050" approved by the government of Vietnam in 2009. For Vu Yen Bridge, DOT of Hai Phong

City prepared a study report in 2012 and for Nguyen Trai Bridge AECOM, which is a Singaporean consultant,

prepared a study report in 2013. In this report, The report by DOT of Hai Phong City is described as "Vu Yen Bridge

Study Report" and the report by AECOM is described as "Nguyen Trai Bridge Study Report".

The location of the bridges are located as follows:

Vu Yen Bridge: Crossing Cam river in the overlap section of the second and third ring roads at Hai Phong city.

Bridge Location

Bridge Location

Cable-Stayed Bridge, Bridge length L=640m, Center Span 300m, Approach bridges L=785m+800m, total

length 1,585m.

Nguyen Trai Bridge: Directly connected among new and existing city area, administrative districts, north side

industrial campus and Cat Bi airport. Cable-Stayed Bridge, Bridge length L=630m, Center Span 290m,

Approach bridges L=240m x 2, total length 480m.

The Project consists of the following elements:

- Approach Road

- Main Bridges (Cable-Stayed bridges)

- Approach Bridge

Because it was considered that the bridge site planned on Hai Phong development master plan was validid, the

bridge site for Vu Yen Bridge and Nguyen Trai Bridge was the same as the master plan. The scope of the

Project included in the city development master plan of Hai Phong City as a major route is proper scope from

the point of view of constructability and existing condition with neighboring work sections.

Figure S3 and S4 shows the project location respectively.

Figure S3 Scope of the Project (Vu Yen Bridge)

Source: Study Team

Figure S4 Scope of the Project (Nguyen Trai Bridge)

Source: Study Team

L=785m L=640m

L=800m

Total L=2,225m

L=240m L=630m L=240m

Total L=1,110m

2) Outline of the Project

a) Road Standard, Design Speed

Road Standard: TCVN 4054: 2005 (Highway-Specifications for Design)

Design Speed: V=100km/h

b) Road Width

Following cross sections connecting to bridges and approach roads are shown below:

Figure S5 Location of Approach Roads and Standard Cross Sections

Source: Hai Phong City Master Plan

b)-1. Vu Yen Bridge

Figure S6 South Side (a)

Source: DOC Hai Phong

Figure S7 North Side (b)

Source: DOC Hai Phong

チーバイ河 (a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Figure S8 Bridge

Source: Study Team

b)-2. Nguyen Trai Bridge

Figure S9 South Side (c)

Source: Study Team

Figure S10 North Side (d)

Source: DOC Hai Phong

Figure S11 Bridge

Source: Study Team

3) Basic Policy for determining the contents of the project

a) Traffic Demand Forecasting

The significant population growth is expected in Hai Phong city through an economic growth with Lach

Huyen port construction and urban development in the Northern area of Cam River.

Especially, forecast population in Thuy Nguyen district which is located in Northern area of Cam River is

251,000 in 2025 (about 240,000 increase from 16,000 in 2009).

From the above, the chronic traffic congestion is predicted to occur in both existing bridges, Kien bridge and

Binh bridge, and it interfere daily activities of local residents and distribution activities of companies.

In this study, traffic demand forecast was made to evaluate the necessity of Nguyen Trai bridge and Vu Yen

bridge construction and the effect (included calculation for economic analysis).

Urban development master plan approved by Hai Phong city in 2009 predicted traffic demand based on a

traffic survey which is studied in 2004 and prepared future OD tables for 2020 and 2030 and future network.

b) Natural Condition

b)-1. Geographical and Geological Conditions

Natural low-lying area by mangrove coast is distributed around geographical condition around the bridge

location. For geological condition along Cam river, sensitive clay is accumulated until the depth of GL-30m.

The ground base of such the low-lying area tends to effect geologically particularities such as Change of

pure water pressure attended by transition of ground water, erosion effected by flowing water and ocean

waves, softening by interfusion and immersion, Salinity eluviations/ accumulation and Shrinkage/

hardening by aridity. Therefore, the following items may be recommendable to be studied for technical

examination for foundations on the neighboring ground base.

- Settlement/ deformation due softening of ground stiffness

- Reduction of bearing capacity due to decrease of effective stresses in fracture face

b)-2. Earthquake

For seismic design for structures, Vietnam Standards, SPECIFICATION BRIDGE DESIGN 22

TCN-272-05, is applied. As the horizontal seismic coefficient, Seismic Zone 3 is determined. Load factor

design method is utilized in consideration of the coefficients corresponding to elastic wave velocity of the

ground and damping characteristic designated by each structure.

b)-3. Navigation Clearance

Based on discussions with the Ports and Harbors Bureau, the following navigational clearances are required.

With regard to the navigational clearance of Nguyen Trai bridge, official letter No. 1522/CVHHHP-PC

dated November 29th 2013 (See Appendix-3), the major point of which is "Hoan Dieu Harbor located

upstream of the bridge will be relocated downstream of the Cam River after 2025; however, careful

attention should be paid in planning to the fact that existing harbors will be used by pleasure ships or

foreign military vessels" was issued. Therefore, in the Project a navigational clearance of 25m will be

applied to Nguyen Trai bridge. In addition, the result of study about the case that 45m of navigation

clearance will be applied to Nguyen Trai Bridge is also shown.

Table S1 Navigational Clearances in the Project

Bridge Vu Yen Br. Nguyen Trai Br.

Target Vessel*1

20,000DWT 20,000DWT(5,000DWT)

Clearance (H)*2 Hmax5%(+1.75m)+ 45.0m Hmax5%(+1.14m)+45.0m( 25.0m)

Width (B) 80m 80m

*1: When the Preparatory Survey will be carried out, it is necessary to investigate the marine traffic

conditions for use of port and delay of harbor transfer. HPPC suggests the possibility that the navigation

clearance, H=30m-35m, will be adopted for the ship which is from 10,000DWT to 15,000 DWT.

*2: The water levels at Vu Yen Bridge and Nguyen Trai Bridge apply to the water levels at Binh Bridge and

Bach Dang Bridge*3

, respectively.

*3: Ha Long - Hai Phong road (Official name: The road to be connected between Ha Long and the Hanoi-Hai

Phong highway), which is planned in Quang Ninh Province, is in approximately 25km length. Bach Danh

bridge will be constructed on the highway.

Source: Study Team

b)-4. Air space

The air space of Vu Yen bridge basically has 45m due to the location where the horizontal surface of the Cat

Bi airport is, however, the air space, 95m, will be adopted because Bach Danh bridge has been approved on

the same limitations. And then, Nguyen Trai bridge does not significantly affect the bridge plan since the

distance from the airport becomes 7,000 m or more.

b)-5. Other Natural Conditions

Data and information for other natural conditions, such as for climate/weather, river characteristics, wind

velocity/direction, were collected during the site survey. This study considered the data and information.

4) Examination of Technical Approach

a) Bridge Type and Span Arrangement

a)-1. Selection of Main Bridge Type

For the main bridge crossing Cam river, applicable bridge types are pointed as candidates, and then, the

most appropriate type is selected among them..

The length of center span should be determined as more than 300m for Vu Yen bridge and 290m for Nguyen

Trai bridge, considering navigation width of W=80m, scale of foundations and lateral clearance. The

applicable bridge types can be pointed as following three types

Case 1: Cable-Stayed Bridge

Case 2: Arch Bridge

Case 3: Self-Anchored Cable Suspension Bridge

The comparison study is shown in Table S2 and S3. As a result of the study, the cable-stayed bridge was

selected as the most suitable type of bridge from the perspective of economic efficiency and maintainability.

Vu Yen Bridge Study Report and Nguyen Trai Bridge Study Report are reviewed and selectable studies are

carried out, the results that a concept design was carried out are shown in Table S6 and S7.

Table S2 Comparison Study of Main Bridge(Vu Yen Bridge)

Bridge Type Evaluation

Ty

pe-

1

Cost Efficiency 1.00

Superstructure 288,033JPY/m2, Substructure

187,367JPY/ m2

Structural Efficiency

Steel-PC Composite Cable Stay bridge with Double-I-Shape

Girder. Pylon and Slab (PC). The standard span length

is from 130m to 450m, so that there is no problem

structurally.

Workability

The cantilever method is adopted as a erection method. It is possible to

minimize the inhibition of river traffic during the

construction.

Maintenance

Long-term anticorrosive coating(Flluorine series) are applied. In case of

application of such the coating, painting life will be 20

to 30 years under partial repainting. The repainting can

carried out using a inspection vehicle.

(Recommendable Bridge Type)

Type-

2

Cost Efficiency 1.20

Superstructure 573,840JPY/m2, Substructure 335,446JPY/ m2

Structural Efficiency

Arch bridge has structural properties which is high

rigidity and excellent cross-section efficiency. A

tied arch type is selected in the long arch bridge as

the horizontal force increases.

Workability

The large erection method is adopted as a erection method. The

adjustment with river administrator is required.

Maintenance

Same to Case-1, long-term anticorrosive coating is applied. The

repainting needs a scaffolding to be installed to parts of arch, so that the

traffic restriction is needed during the work.

Type-

3

Cost Efficiency 1.35

Superstructure 548,306JPY/m2, Substructure 217,027JPY/ m2

Structural Efficiency

It is the type to fix the cable at both ends of the

girder without anchorage. Therefore, large

compressive force is working to the girder. The

standard span length is from 150m to 2000m, so

that there is no problem structurally.

Workability

The girder needs a support during the construction, so that the effect on

river traffic is high.

Maintenance

Same to Case-1, long-term anticorrosive coating is applied. The

repainting is required to apply inner surface because of the box girder.

Source: Study Team

Table S3 Comparison Study of Main Bridge(Nguyen Trai Bridge)

Bridge Type Evaluation

Ty

pe-

1

Cost Efficiency 1.00

Superstructure 288,033JPY/m2, Substructure 187,367JPY/ m2

Structural Efficiency

Steel-PC Composite Cable Stay bridge with Double-I-Shape Girder.

Pylon and Slab (PC). The standard span length is from 130m to 450m, so

that there is no problem structurally.

Workability

The cantilever method is adopted as a erection method. It is possible to

minimize the inhibition of river traffic during the construction.

Maintenance

Long-term anticorrosive coating(Flluorine series) are applied. In case of

application of such the coating, painting life will be 20 to 30 years under

partial repainting. The repainting can carried out using a inspection

vehicle.

(Recommendable Bridge Type)

Typ

e-2

Cost Efficiency 1.20

Superstructure 573,840JPY/m2, Substructure 335,446JPY/ m2

Structural Efficiency

Arch bridge has structural properties which is high rigidity and excellent

cross-section efficiency. A tied arch type is selected in the long arch

bridge as the horizontal force increases.

Workability

The large erection method is adopted as a erection method. The

adjustment with river administrator is required.

Maintenance

Same to Case-1, long-term anticorrosive coating is applied. The

repainting needs a scaffolding to be installed to parts of arch, so that the

traffic restriction is needed during the work.

Type-

3

Cost Efficiency 1.35

Superstructure 548,306JPY/m2, Substructure 217,027JPY/ m2

Structural Efficiency

It is the type to fix the cable at both ends of the girder without

anchorage. Therefore, large compressive force is working to the girder.

The standard span length is from 150m to 2000m, so that there is no

problem structurally.

Workability

The girder needs a support during the construction, so that the effect on

river traffic is high.

Maintenance

Same to Case-1, long-term anticorrosive coating is applied. The

repainting is required to apply inner surface because of the box girder.

Source: Study Team

Figure S12 Vu Yen Bridge

Source: Study Team

Figure S13 Nguyen Trai Bridge

Source: Study Team

(3) Outline of the Project

1) Construction Cost

A preliminary total project cost is shown in Table S4 and Table S5. The preliminary total project cost for Vu

Yen Bridge is estimated approximately 23.6 billion yen (4 trillion 783.7 billion Vietnam Dong), for Nguyen

Trai Bridge is estimated approximately 19.2 billion yen (3 trillion 891.5 billion Vietnam Dong), in case that

45m of navigation clearance for Nguyen Trai Bridge is estimated approximately 25.1 billion.

Table S4 Preliminary Total Project Cost for Vu Yen Bridge

Source: Study Team

Table S5 Preliminary Total Project Cost for Nguyen Trai Bridge

Source: Study Team

JPY

(Mill.)

VND

(Mill.)

Equivalent

JPY(Mill.)

Equivalent

VND(Mill.)

Construction Cost 12,479 767,856 16,265 3,299,096

Consultant Fee 10% 1,248 76,786 1,627 329,910

Contingency 10% 1,248 76,786 1,627 329,910

Sub Total 14,975 921,427 19,518 3,958,915

Land Acquisition - - - -

Administration Cost 5% - 164,955 813 164,955

Value Added Tax(VAT) 10% - 329,910 1,626 329,910

Import Tax 10% - 329,910 1,626 329,910

Sub Total - 824,774 4,066 824,774

Total 14,975 1,746,201 23,584 4,783,689

Item

JPY

(Mill.)

VND

(Mill.)

Equivalent

JPY(Mill.)

Equivalent

VND(Mill.)

Construction Cost 9,346 512,203 11,872 2,407,947

Consultant Fee 10% 935 51,220 1,187 240,795

Contingency 10% 935 51,220 1,187 240,795

Sub Total for 25m 11,215 614,644 14,246 2,889,536

Sub Total for 45m (13,663) (1,117,852) (19,175) (3,889,295)

Land Acquisition - 400,000 1,972 400,000

Administration Cost 5% - 120,397 594 120,397

Value Added Tax(VAT) 10% - 240,795 1,187 240,795

Import Tax 10% - 240,795 1,187 240,795

Sub Total - 1,001,987 4,940 1,001,987

Total for 25m 11,215 1,616,630 19,186 3,891,523

Total for 45m (13,663) (2,328,121) (25,141) (5,099,565)

Item

2) Calculation of Ratio of Material, Equipment and Others of Japan Origin

Table S6 shows the calculation of a ratio of material, equipment and others of Japan origin based on the guidelines

prepared by relevant ministries of Japan. As shown in the table, the 30% condition for STEP scheme is satisfied.

Table S6 Ratio of material, equipment and others of Japan origin

Source: Study Team

3) Overview of Preliminary Economic/Finance Analysis

a) Economic Analysis

In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this project from the viewpoint of the national economy, a

comparative analysis of economic cost and benefit both in the case of executing the project (With the project)

and not executing the project (Without the project) is carried out.

In the project, the object of analysis has two bridges which are Vu Yen Bridge and Nguyen Trai Bridge, so the

comparative analysis is carried out on three scenarios as follows to evaluate the effectiveness of both projects.

Both Nguyen Trai Bridge and Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed

Only Nguyen Trai Bridge will be constructed and Vu Yen will be not

Only Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed and Nguyen Trai will be not

As the evaluation indices, Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C) and Net Present

Value (NPV) are applied.

Cost JPY (Mill) Remark

Material 1,171 Sub total estimated in Table 8-2

Steel Girder 4,061 Fabrication, Erection, Stay Cable (Materials and Installation Cost )

Wind tunnel test 20 Contain test Model

Steel Pipe 2,848 SPSP and Screwed Pipe (Material and Installation Cost)

Total (i) 8,100 About 81 hundred-millions

16,265 About 163 hundred-millions

49.8% >30% ①/②

Cost JPY (Mill) Remark

Material 743 Sub total estimated in Table 8-2

Steel Girder 4,001 Fabrication, Erection, Stay Cable (Materials and Installation Cost )

Wind tunnel test 20 Contain test Model

Steel Pipe 1,415 SPSP and Screwed Pipe (Material and Installation Cost)

Total (i) 6,179 About 62 hundred-millions

11,872 About 118 hundred-millions

52.0% >30% ①/②

47.5% >30%Ratio (H=45m)

Total Project Cost (ii)

Ratio (H=25m)

Ratio

Nguyen Trai Bridge

Item

Cost forJapanese

Technology

Vu Yen Bridge

Item

Cost forJapanese

Technology

Total Project Cost (ii)

The result being analyzed based on the benefit and the cost is shown in Table S7, S8, S9. When compared

with social discount rate of Vietnam, this project is considered to be economically feasible.

Table S7 Results of cost benefit analysis

Case B/C Ratio N.P.V EIRR

Both Nguyen Trai Bridge and Vu Yen

Bridge will be constructed 12.09 412.42 million USD 17.9%

Only Nguyen Trai Bridge will be

constructed and Vu Yen will be not 14.27 237.82 million USD 19.8%

Only Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed

and Nguyen Trai will be not 19.30 471.98 million USD 25.4%

Source: Study Team

In the elements assumed for the economic analysis, variable factors are included in each element and some

elements are based on simple assumptions.

As a sensitivity analysis, some margin will be given in accordance with such variable factors and by finding

out how the result of the analysis will vary; the stability of the feasibility of this project will be confirmed.

From the results of analysis shown in the table below, the value of EIRR exceeds 9.3% even in the case of

20% construction cost increase or 20% benefit decrease in either scenario, so the possibility of realization of

this project is high.

Table S8 Result of Sensitivity Analysis

Case Benefit Construction Cost

-20% 0% 20%

Both Nguyen Trai Bridge and Vu Yen

Bridge will be constructed

20% 24.3% 20.6% 17.9%

-20% 17.9% 15.1% 13.1%

Only Nguyen Trai Bridge will be

constructed and Vu Yen will be not

20% 26.7% 22.7% 19.8%

-20% 19.8% 16.8% 14.6%

Only Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed

and Nguyen Trai will be not

20% 34.1% 29.0% 25.4%

-20% 25.4% 21.5% 18.8%

Source: Study Team

b) Financial Analysis

The value of FIRR of this project is a positive value in either scenario, however, there is no financial feasibility of

this project because it has less than 9.3%, which is long-term interest rate of Vietnam. On the other hand, the value

of NPV is also becomes negative. It does not reach the level to promote private investment.

Table S9 Result of sensitivity analysis

Case B/C Ratio N.P.V FIRR

Both Nguyen Trai Bridge and Vu Yen

Bridge will be constructed 2.08 -222.68 USD 3.0%

Only Nguyen Trai Bridge will be

constructed and Vu Yen will be not 4.20 -50.29 USD 6.6%

Only Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed

and Nguyen Trai will be not 2.44 -111.92 USD 3.8%

Note:Benefit of the B/C ratio uses the assumed revenue

Source: Study Team

In the elements assumed for this analysis (Investment cost and revenue), unknown factors are included. Some

margin will be added to each element corresponding to each unknown factor, the variation of the result of the

analysis is observed and the financial stability of this project will be verified.

From the table below, in all cases, it is found that the value of FIRR does not satisfy the long-term interest rate

of Vietnam, 9.3%. If the project will be carried out based on the appropriate construction plan and

management plan, it is hard to be feasibility in a financial standpoint.

Table S10 Result of sensitivity analysis

Case Revenue Construction cost

-20% 0% 20%

Both Nguyen Trai Bridge and Vu Yen Bridge will

be constructed

20% 5.0% 3.9% 3.0%

-20% 3.0% 2.0% 1.3%

Only Nguyen Trai Bridge will be constructed and

Vu Yen will be not

20% 9.2% 7.7% 6.6%

-20% 6.6% 5.4% 4.4%

Only Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed and

Nguyen Trai will be not

20% 5.9% 4.7% 3.8%

-20% 3.8% 2.8% 2.0%

* In parentheses, in the case of 45m of navigation clearance for Nguyen Trai Bridge

Source: Study Team

4) Considerations on Natural and Social Environments

This study is conducted in the earliest phase of the decision making process. The major objective of

“Environmental and social considerations” in project formation studied is to provide data to determine

whether the project should be taken to the next phase, and to clearly identify a broad range of items to be

investigated in the next phase, if the project goes forward, from an environmental and social standpoint.

Following shows the summary that the environmental reviews to identify major impacts on natural and social

environments using the JICA check list in the screening form.

In this project, it is expected that there is no impact on the natural environment such as air pollution, noise,

water pollution, protected areas, etc. On the earth work at construction stage, it is expected that there is no

effect on water pollution, noise and vibration by implementing the measures as necessary.

However, impact is expected in some places for land acquisition before construction. The impact only occurs

in the site of south side approach road of the Nyguen Trai Bridge. For the construction of the south side

approach road of the Nyguen Trai Bridge (the road width: 50.5m), existing Nguyen Trai street will be planned

to widen. Currently, there are many residents, stores, and offices along the street. Therefore, it need to follow

proper regulations and rules when this project is conducted.

On the Nguyen Trai street, The widening direction is not decided, and there are following 3 plans;

a) Plan of expansion to the both sides of the Nguyen Trai street

b) Plan of expansion to the East side of the Nguyen Trai street

c) Plan of expansion to the West side of the Nguyen Trai street

The Ngo Quyen People’s Committee push widening plan at west side of the Nguyen Trai street, which amount

of compensation is the lowest. However, the consultation is required in the government in the future.

Table S11 Total Acquired Area, Number of Affected Households, and Estimated Cost for compensation

Plans

Total

acquired

area(m2)

Area of Affected Households(m2)

Estimated

Cost

(VND) Organizations

Households

Cose to

the road

Far from

the road

3-floor

collective

housing

Both Side 13,500 4 (3,800) 110 (8,260) 15 (900) 36 (540) 400 billion

East Side 14,600 2 (5,300) 85 (5,200) 75 (3,100) - 350 billion

West Side 13,600 4 (6,300) 67 (3,900) 52 (2,900) 36 (500) 280.4 billion

Source: Study Team

According to the Decree No.29/2011/ND-CP, this project falls under Project No. 26: “Projects to build road

and rail bridges”, and also requires that EIA be conducted during the F/S phase.

In this project, the provincial-level People’s Committee is in charge of EIA reports. The project operator

submits EIA reports to DONRE for certification.

(4) Implementation Schedule

A tentative schedule from the present time to completion of the construction is shown in Table S12

As a result of the traffic demand forecasts, it will not keep up with the traffic demand if two bridges are not

constructed until 2020. For this purpose, it is necessary to follow the implementation schedule such as the

preparatory survey has in 2014, the government Exchange of Notes and the loan agreement has in 2015 and

the construction will be started in 2017. Based on these, a detailed implementation schedule was made

At the beginning, implementation method is discussed among relevant authorities in Vietnam. When the

implementation by Japanese ODA is selected, GOV (Government of Vietnam) request to JICA Hanoi for the

ODA application followed by bilateral discussion and investigation on the Project. In Table S8, it is assumed

that preparatory survey is carried out because of the immature level of BRITEC Report. When both countries

agreed, the L/A (Loan Agreement) is signed by the two countries based on the agreed TOR (Terms of

Reference) of the ODA. A required period for the said process varies depending on the contents of a project.

Based on the information of the past similar projects, the time of the L/A is assumed to be October 2015.

After the L/A, works including selection of the consultant, the design phase and bidding for contractors are

carried out. The period of the design phase is assumed to be 11 months including F/S review, B/D (Basic design)

and D/D (Detailed Design). The commencement time of the construction is assumed to be August 2017.

The construction would require 44 months for Vu Yen bridge and 39 months for Nguyen Trai bridge based on

the study resulted in the completion time of the end of March 2021 and October 2020 respectively.

(5) Feasibility on ODA Request and Implementation

The Project is currently planned by HPPC although it has been included in the master plan of Hai Phong. The

first step for HPPC is to request the MOT for probability of ODA implementation. Funding by GOV is not

likely because of the large project scale. Private sectors may be reluctant to invest on the Project because of

the large scale and the low FIRR. In addition to these financial problems, the Project requires the

state-of-the-art technology on the design and construction of a cable stayed bridge. The technology has not

fully established in Vietnam. Because of these reasons, HPPC hope that Vu Yen Bridge and Nguyen Trai

Bridge are constructed by Japanese ODA having high reputation on the quality and schedule management.

Therefore, no serious obstacle are found for the ODA implementation.

Many foreign countries, such as Finland, Germany and Korea, are investing on the port facilities and factories

in nearby industrial parks. Under the situation, Japan is expected to provide advice and assistance for the

implementation of the Project. This would be a good opportunity for Japan to impress people with its

existence.

Table S12 Total Project Schedule (Plan)

Source: Study Team

Financial Year in Japan

Calender Year

12

Construction Work

Nguyen Trai Bridge

Preparation &

Temporary Work

Main Bridge Work

Approach Bridge

Work

Road &

Miscellaneous Work

GOV requests to

GOJ(HANOI)

ODA Project Study

between Japan and Vietnam

E/N,L/A

Tender Procedure

Tender

Project Study in

Vietnam

1

9

10

11

7

8

2

3

4

5

Approach Bridge

Work

3 4 5 6

Contract

Slection of Consultant

F/S Review, B/D, D/D

Approval for Design

Final Report

Submission to

Counterpart

(HPPC,DOT)

6

7 8

Road &

Miscellaneous Work

Work Items

13

Month

Construction Work

Vu Yen Bridge

Preparation &

Temporary Work

Main Bridge Work

5 10

11

-3 -2 -1 1 6

1 2

11 12

12

2014

2013 2014

92 3 4

41 2 38 9 107 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

2015

2015 2016

2016 2017

4 5 6 7

2017 2018 2019 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021

31 32

8 9 10 11

25 26 27 28 29 30 33 34 35 36

4 52 312 1 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3

37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3

49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3

61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80

12 1 2 3

81 82 83 84

(6) Technical advantages of Japanese Firms

As stated foregoing, design and construction of a cable stayed bridge of which center span is 360m requires

not only sophisticated knowledge but also high-developed equipment and materials. Japan has vast of overseas

experiences and lead the state-of-the-art technology in this area. Moreover, the Japanese technologies and

experiences for wind tunnel tests and wind-resistant stability design are also leading the edge of the world.

Additionally, some other Japanese technologies, which are applicable to the Project, such as Vacuum

Consolidation Method (VCM) for soft ground improvement, Screwed Steel Pile foundation and Structural

Health Monitoring System (SHMS) are also quite unique and competitive technologies.

Based on the above, it is quite apparent that Japanese firms have enough competitive power and a possibility

of participation to the Project.

As stated above, Japanese firms have sufficient competitiveness in terms of economic efficiency, quality

control and resolution of technical difficulties, etc. Consequently, application of the technologies, which make

the participation of Japanese firms who are familiar to the leading-edge technologies developed by Japan

dominantly, is essential to this project. It is recommended to propose and exhibit above competitiveness of

Japan working on the cutting edge of bridge engineering. This approach would also provide Japanese firms

and technologies with good opportunities of orders.

(7) Specific Schedule until L/A and Potential Risks for Implementation

Table S13 shows a tentative schedule from the present time to L/A.

No considerable risks are found in the schedule because the counterpart wish to complete the Project under

STEP scheme of Japanese ODA.

Many large scale road/bridge projects are simultaneously ongoing in Vietnam, in some of which the schedule

is behind the original one. The main reason is the resettlement and land procurement. In this Project, however,

almost no people are living in the area. Therefore, social problem could be solved relatively easily once

compensation for fishery and shrimp farming is smoothly agreed.

One little concern may be a possible delay of the process due to negotiation and administrative procedures

among the two countries, which could be managed by close communication and cooperation.

In Table S12, the time of L/A is assumed to be October 2015. A potential risk to decelerate the implementation

schedule may be an internal factor of the two countries.

Table S13 Total Project Schedule (Plan)

Source: Study Team

Financial Year in Japan

Calender Year

Month

Cumulative No. 36

10 11 12

32 33 34

8 9

28 29 30 31

2016

4 5 6 7

3520 21

1 2 3

23 24 25 26 27

11 125 6 7 8312

12 22

9 10

16 17 18 19

2014

2013 2014

8 9 10

2015

2015

41

13 14 15

11

1 2 3 4 9

2

10 11

5

5

6 7

7 8

2

1 2 3 4

6

Consultant

GOJ

9

10

11

1

7

8

3

4

5

6

GOV

GOV

Preparation for Preparatory SurveyGOJ

GOV

GOJ

GOJ

GOJ

GOJ

Selection of Consultant for Preparatory Survey

Final Report Submission

Final Report Submission to Counterpart

(HPPC, DOT)

HPPC requests to GOV

Consensus Formation in GOV

GOV requests to GOJ (Hanoi)

Evaluation by GOJ (Hanoi)

GOJ (Hanoi) requests to GOJ (Headquater)

Evaluation by GOJ (Headquater)

GOJ

GOJ

GOJ

GOV

GOJ

GOV

Consultant

Selection of PMU

Preparation for Tender Documents

for Consultant Selection

Evaluation of Preparatory Survey

Jugement of ODA Implementation

Preparation of TOR

Exchange of Notes (E/N)

Loan Agreement (L/A)

GOJ

GOV

GOJ

GOV

GOV

GOV

16

18

17

15

Design Phase

(F/S Review, B/D, D/D)

GOV

Selection of Consultant

19

2016

Implementation of Preparatory Survey

Work Items

12

13

14

(8) Project Location Map

Figure S14 shows the project location.

Figure S14 the project location

Source: Study Team

Hải Phòng

Đà Nẵng

TP HCM

0

250km

Vu Yen Bridge

Nguyen Trai Bridge

Source: Hai Phong City Master Plan