Studying Poverty, Agricultural Risks, and Coping Strategies

Presentation at the BMGF Grantee Meeting

Presentation outline

• 1. Motivation• 2. Activities

– Exploratory analysis – Correlation/Association– Causal analysis/impact evaluations

• 3. Findings• 4. Next steps

1. Motivation

• Agricultural risks are a major constraint on productivity increases, especially in marginal environments

• The constraints are higher with changing climate, lack of market access, and underdeveloped market instruments

1.1 Major research questions:

-How do farmers and cultivators cope with different environmental risks? -What role do institutions play in coping strategies?-What kinds of external interventions can enhance local capacities to cope with risks?

1.2 investigation strategy

• Code information in existing studies of risks and coping strategies using consistent, conceptual categories for livelihood strategies, environmental risks, coping strategies, and institutions

• Examine patterns of relationships among risks, coping strategies, institutions, conditional on livelihood strategies

• Use findings to pilot field research on the diversity of risks and coping strategies

2. Major activities• Development of basic conceptual categories• Coding of information in preexisting cases• Analysis of patterns in data• Field data pilot launched• Field experiment planned for 2014

2.1 Major conceptual categories

Risk categories

Droughts Ecological changeFlooding ImmigrationErratic Rains Market changeStorms Violent conflictDisease Socio-economic Pests inequalityHeat Waves

Coping strategies categories

DiversificationPoolingMobilityStorageMarket exchange

Institution categories

PublicCivicPrivate

3. Findings What is the most common observed pattern of relationships among adaptations and institutions?

0 200 400 600 800Institutions

Storage

Exchange

Pooling

Mobility

Diversification

Patterns btw coping mechanisms and institutions

0 50 100 150 200 250Institutions

other exchange

consumptive storage

other diversification

product storage

other mobility

factor exchange

labor exchange

involuntary mobility

wage labor mobility

labor pooling

agro-pastoral mobility

capital pooling

other pooling

factor storage

consumptive diversification

product exchange

product diversification

occupation/skill diversification

factor diversification

Patterns between coping strategies and institutions

Coping measures consistent over different risks – adaptation patterns consistent across shocks

Risk categories

Droughts Ecological changeFlooding ImmigrationErratic Rains Market changeStorms Violent conflictDisease Socio-economic Pests inequalityHeat Waves

Adaptation Trends?0 100 200 300

Institutions

storage

pooling

mobility

exchange

diversity

Increasing

Constant

Decreasing

Increasing

Constant

Decreasing

Increasing

Constant

Decreasing

Increasing

Constant

Decreasing

Increasing

Constant

Decreasing

Adaptation Trend

0 100 200 300 400Institutions

storage

pooling

mobility

exchange

diversity

Not applicable

Greater than 10

Five to Ten

Less than Five

Greater than 10

Five to Ten

Less than Five

Not applicable

Greater than 10

Five to Ten

Less than Five

Greater than 10

Five to Ten

Less than Five

Not applicable

Greater than 10

Five to Ten

Less than Five

History

How are patterns of relationships among adaptations and institutions structured by livelihood practices?

0 100 200 300Institutions

other

wage labor

trade or services

livestock

hunting/gathering

fishing

agriculture

poolingexchange

diversity

storagepooling

mobilityexchange

diversity

storagepooling

mobilityexchange

diversity

storagepooling

mobilityexchange

diversity

storagepooling

mobilityexchange

diversity

storagepooling

mobilityexchange

diversity

storagepooling

mobilityexchange

diversity

Pattern between adaptations and livelihoods

What is the relationship between institutions and the types of adaptation strategies?

0 20 40 60 80Institutions

public elected body

public department

NGO

cooperative

civic service

civic political

business

StoragePoolingMobility

ExchangeDiversification

StoragePoolingMobility

ExchangeDiversification

StoragePoolingMobility

ExchangeDiversification

StoragePoolingMobility

ExchangeDiversification

StoragePoolingMobility

ExchangeDiversification

PoolingMobility

Diversification

StoragePoolingMobility

ExchangeDiversification

Institutions and Adaptations

Pattern between adaptation practices and biodiversity?

0 50 100 150 200 250Institutions

storage

pooling

mobility

exchange

diversity

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

Biodiversity effect

Pattern between adaptation practices and sustainability?

0 50 100 150 200 250Institutions

storage

pooling

mobility

exchange

diversity

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

Sustainability effect

Pattern between adaptation practices and equity?

0 50 100 150 200Institutions

storage

pooling

mobility

exchange

diversity

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

positive

neutral

negative

Equity effect

Relationships between adaptation practices & biodiversity, equity and sustainability:

• Outcomes: biodiversity, equity, sustainability• Predictors: coping mechanisms, institutions,

history of adaptation practices, livelihood practices, formality of institutional links and history of institutional relationships

• Method: Logistic regression

Exploratory Analysis!

Correlations btw predictors & biodiversity

Pooling associated with improved biodiversity Formal institutional links & a longer history of

institutional links associated with improved biodiversity

NGOs & Private institutions associated with improved biodiversity

Longer history of adaptation practice associated with reduced biodiversity

Correlations btw predictors & sustainability

Pooling & storage associated with improved sustainability

NGOs associated with improved sustainability Formal institutional links associated with

improved sustainability Private institutions, exchange, and mobility

associated with reduced sustainability

Correlations between predictors & equity

• Pooling associated with improved equity• Private institutions associated with improved

equity• Longer history of institutional links associated

with improved equity• Longer history of adaptation practices

associated with improved equity• Exchange associated with reduced equity

4. Next steps

• SPARCS watershed project– HH, institution, village, commons instruments– semi arid regions of Rajasthan, Karnataka and Andhra

Pradesh – Foundation for Ecological Security

• Climate change & adaptation field experiment– HH, social network, behavioural games, village instruments – semi arid regions of Rajasthan, Karnataka and Andhra

Pradesh – Foundation for Ecological Security

THANK YOU!

• Q & A