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Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF. Fr é d é ric Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts. Seasonal Forecasts Month 2-7. Medium-Range Forecasts Day 1-10(15). Monthly Forecast Day 10-32. Product. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Geneva 2-3 December 2011
Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF
Frédéric Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
Product
ECMWF:Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts
Medium-Range Forecasts
Day 1-10(15)
MonthlyForecast
Day 10-32
Seasonal Forecasts
Month 2-7
Forecasting systems at ECMWF
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
The ECMWF monthly forecasting system
• A 51-member ensemble is integrated for 32 days twice a week (Mondays and Thursdays at 00Z)
• Atmospheric component: IFS with the latest operational cycle and with a T639L62 resolution till day 10 and T319L62 after day 10.
• Persisted SST anomalies till day 10 and ocean-atmosphere coupling from day 10 till day 32.
• Oceanic component: NEMO with a zonal resolution of about 1 degree.
• Coupling: OASIS (CERFACS). Coupling every 3 hours.
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
Ocean only integration
Coupled forecast at TL319Day 32
EPS Integration at T639
Initial condition
Heat flux, Wind stress, P-E
Current system (twice a week, 51 ensemble members):
Day 9
The ECMWF VarEPS-monthly forecasting system
Day 10
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
The ECMWF monthly forecasting system
• Atmospheric initial conditions: ECMWF operational analysis
• Oceanic initial conditions: “Accelerated” ocean analysis
• Perturbations:
Atmosphere: Singular vectors + stochastic physics + EDA Ocean: Wind stress perturbations during the data assimilation
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
The ECMWF monthly forecasting system
• Background statistics:
5-member ensemble integrated at the same day and same month as the real-time time forecast over the past 18 years (a total of 90 member ensemble)
Initial conditions: ERA Interim
It runs once a week
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
The ECMWF monthly forecasting system Anomalies (temperature, precipitation..)
-
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
50°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
50°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
0°E20°W40°W60°W80°W100°W120°W140°W160°W 20°E 40°E 60°E 80°E 100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E
0°E20°W40°W60°W80°W100°W120°W140°W160°W 20°E 40°E 60°E 80°E 100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E
ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 90
Forecast start reference is 17-11-2011
2-meter Temperature anomalyECMWF EPS-Monthly Forecasting System
Contours at 1% level
Shaded areas significant at 10% level
05-12-2011/TO/11-12-2011
Day 19-25
<-10deg -10.. -6 -6.. -3 -3.. -1 -1.. 0 0.. 1 1.. 3 3.. 6 6.. 10 > 10deg
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
The ECMWF monthly forecasting system
Probabilities (temperature, precipitation..)
-
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
50°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
50°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
0°E20°W40°W60°W80°W100°W120°W140°W160°W 20°E 40°E 60°E 80°E 100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E
0°E20°W40°W60°W80°W100°W120°W140°W160°W 20°E 40°E 60°E 80°E 100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E
ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 90
Forecast start reference is 17-11-2011
(Prob 2m Temp. anom above 66%)ECMWF EPS-Monthly Forecasting System
12-12-2011/TO/18-12-2011
Day 26-32
< 10% 10.. 20 20.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 60 60.. 70 > 70%
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
The ECMWF monthly forecasting system
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
The ECMWF monthly forecasting system
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4RMM1
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4RM
M2
FORECAST BASED 07/11/2011 00UTCECMWF MONTHLY FORECASTS
and AfricaWest Hem.
ContinentMaritime
PacificWestern
OceanIndian
2
1
8
7 6
5
4
3
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10Day 15 Day 20 Analysis
Ens. Mean
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
Experimental product: Tropical cyclone activity
The ECMWF monthly forecasting system
80°N
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
80°N
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
340°E320°E300°E280°E260°E240°E220°E200°E180°E160°E140°E120°E100°E80°E60°E40°E20°E
340°E320°E300°E280°E260°E240°E220°E200°E180°E160°E140°E120°E100°E80°E60°E40°E20°E
Probability of a TS passing within 300km radiusWeekly mean Tropical Storm Strike Probability. Date: 20111114 0 UTC t+(504-672)
5-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-110
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
Skill of the ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
ROC score: 2-meter temperature in the upper tercile
Day 19-25 Day 26-32
Day 5-11 Day 12-18
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
20041007 TO 20090205DAY 12-18ROC SCORE : 2-meter temperature in upper tercileECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
<0.1 0.1..0.2 0.2..0.3 0.3..0.4 0.4..0.5 0.5..0.6 0.6..0.7 0.7..0.8 0.8..0.9 > 0.9
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
20041007 TO 20090205DAY 5-11ROC SCORE : 2-meter temperature in upper tercileECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
<0.1 0.1..0.2 0.2..0.3 0.3..0.4 0.4..0.5 0.5..0.6 0.6..0.7 0.7..0.8 0.8..0.9 > 0.9
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
20041007 TO 20090205DAY 19-25ROC SCORE : 2-meter temperature in upper tercileECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
<0.1 0.1..0.2 0.2..0.3 0.3..0.4 0.4..0.5 0.5..0.6 0.6..0.7 0.7..0.8 0.8..0.9 > 0.9
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
20041007 TO 20090205DAY 26-32ROC SCORE : 2-meter temperature in upper tercileECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
<0.1 0.1..0.2 0.2..0.3 0.3..0.4 0.4..0.5 0.5..0.6 0.6..0.7 0.7..0.8 0.8..0.9 > 0.9
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
RPSS Scores Hindcasts (1995-2001) - NH
DAY 5-11
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.3
RPSS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010YEAR
2-meter temperature over the Northern Hemisphere
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
RPSS Scores Hindcasts (1995-2001) - NHDAY 5-11
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.3
RPSS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010YEAR
2-meter temperature over the Northern Hemisphere
DAY 12-18
-0.2
-0.18
-0.16
-0.14
-0.12
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
RPSS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010YEAR
2-meter temperature over the Northern Hemisphere
DAY 19-25 DAY 26-32
-0.24
-0.22
-0.2
-0.18
-0.16
RPSS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010YEAR
2-meter temperature over the Northern Hemisphere
-0.22
-0.2
-0.18
-0.16
-0.14
-0.12
RPSS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010YEAR
2-meter temperature over the Northern Hemisphere
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
ROC Scores - TropicsDay 5-11 Day 12-18
Day 19-25 Day 26-320.74
0.76
0.78
0.8
0.82
0.84
RPSS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010YEAR
2-meter temperature over the Tropics
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
0.72
RPSS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010YEAR
2-meter temperature over the Tropics
0.58
0.6
0.62
0.64
RPSS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010YEAR
2-meter temperature over the Tropics
0.6
0.62
0.64
0.66
RPSS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010YEAR
2-meter temperature over the Tropics
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
MJO skill scores and amplitude
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
Fore
cast
Day
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
YEAR
MJO Bivariate Correlation
0.5 0.6 0.8
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Ampl
itude
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
YEAR
MJO Amplitude Error
day 10 day 20 day 30
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
Future Plans• Use of new soil initial condition and SSTs for hindcasts.
• Extend hindcast length from 18 to 20 years
• Increase vertical resolution from 62 levels to ~92 vertical levels
• Sea-ice model
• Ocean/atmosphere Coupling from day 0
• Extend forecast range to 46-60 days
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
Performance of the monthly Forecasts
Day 12-18 Day 19-25 Day 26-32
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011YEAR
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8RO
C Ar
ea
Geneva 2-3 December 2011 19
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Contours at 1% levelShaded areas significant at 10% levelensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 90
Verification period: 26-07-2010/TO/01-08-2010Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF VarEPS-Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 22-07-2010: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 15-07-2010: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 08-07-2010: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 01-07-2010: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Contours at 1% levelShaded areas significant at 10% levelensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 90
Verification period: 26-07-2010/TO/01-08-2010Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF VarEPS-Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 22-07-2010: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 15-07-2010: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 08-07-2010: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 01-07-2010: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Contours at 1% levelShaded areas significant at 10% levelensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 90
Verification period: 26-07-2010/TO/01-08-2010Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF VarEPS-Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 22-07-2010: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 15-07-2010: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 08-07-2010: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 01-07-2010: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Contours at 1% levelShaded areas significant at 10% levelensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 90
Verification period: 26-07-2010/TO/01-08-2010Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF VarEPS-Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 22-07-2010: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 15-07-2010: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 08-07-2010: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 01-07-2010: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
Precip anomalies : 26 July 2010 – 01 August 2010
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Contours at 1% levelShaded areas significant at 10% levelensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 90
Verification period: 26-07-2010/TO/01-08-2010Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF VarEPS-Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 22-07-2010: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 15-07-2010: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 08-07-2010: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 01-07-2010: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
Geneva 2-3 December 2011 20
Precipitation over Pakistan Averaged over (34-25N 60-73E) :
Days 19-25
Verifying weeks: 3-9 May to 16-22 Aug 2010.
Days 12-18
Geneva 2-3 December 2011
Pakistan Floods – Sept 2011
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
40°E 60°E 80°E
40°E 60°E 80°E
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
40°E 60°E 80°E
40°E 60°E 80°E
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
40°E 60°E 80°E
40°E 60°E 80°E
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
40°E 60°E 80°E
40°E 60°E 80°E
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
40°E 60°E 80°E
40°E 60°E 80°E
Contours at 1% level
Shaded areas significant at 10% level
ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 90
Verification period: 05-09-2011/TO/11-09-2011Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF EPS-Monthly Forecasting System
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 01-09-2011: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 25-08-2011: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 18-08-2011: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 11-08-2011: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
