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Sub-sovereign Credit Markets
Fixed Income Securities Applications to Municipal
Markets
Samir El DaherThe World Bank
May 1999
2
Fixed Income SecuritiesMain Parameters
• Definitions
• Market Risk
• Liquidity Risk
• Credit Risk
• Risk/Return Analysis
• Structured Products/Derivatives
3
Definitions
Bond is a financial asset represented by a schedule of cash flows
Amounts and timing of payments are “fixed” in advance or predictable
Difference with equities, real-estate or industrial investments
4
Bond Price Formula
P = Ci / (1+r)i
P is a function of the variable r as cashflows Ci are constant numbers
Equation indicates that P is a decreasing function of variable r
i
5
Market Risk
Unanticipated change in value of asset Duration as a measure of risk of fixed
income security Measuring Duration: = - D Duration D: Price elasticity of interest
rate
dP
P
dr
r1
6
Duration -- Some Characteristics
Duration: increasing function of maturity Duration: decreasing function of yield
level Duration: decreasing function of coupon
level (ex. zero-coupon) Duration: increasing function of
frequency of coupon payments
7
Duration Versus Maturity
Maturity relates to the timing of final cash-flow only
Duration includes all cash-flows time-weighted
Duration carries more information, and is more relevant, than maturity
8
Case of Discount Note:Zero Coupon Bond
Discount note consists of:» one initial outlay (I0) at time zero
» one final payment at time n P = dP = - n [Cn / (1+r)n] [dr / (1+r)]
dP / P = D = n ==> Duration = Maturity for zero
coupon bond
ndr
r1
C
r
n
n( )1
9
Example of Zero Coupon Bond
Example: P0 = 100 / (1+ 0.065)30 = 15 Only in case of bond with single
cashflow payment would duration and maturity be the same
10
Comparison Between Duration and Maturity
Example of 8% coupon rate Maturity 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y, 20y, 30y Duration 1y, 2.5y, 4.2y, 5.6y, 6.8y,10y,12y 30-Y, zero coupon bond is three times
riskier than a 10-Y zero coupon 30-Y, 8% coupon bond is only 12/6.8 =
1.75 time riskier than 10-Y coupon
11
Duration of a Portfolio
Portfolio is a group of securities Portfolio concept essential for investors
for whom “munis” are part of diversified basket of investment instruments
Duration of a portfolio of securities is equal to the sum of the market-value-weighted durations of its component securities
12
“Additivity” of Duration
Securities S1, S2, S3,....Si,....Sn
Weights in portfolio a1, a2, a3,.... ai,....an
with ai = 1
Durations D1, D2, D3,........Di,.....Dn
Maturities M1, M2, M3,.......Mi,....Mn
Average Portfolio Duration = ai Di
Average Portfolio Maturity = ai Mi
i
i
i
13
Comparing Portfolios (A) & (B): Portfolio (A)
Portfolio (A) includes 50% 10-Year note and 50% 30-Year note
10-Year note ===> Duration 7 years 30-Year note ===> Duration 12 years Average Duration, Portfolio (A)
(50% x 7) + (50% x 12) = 9.5 years Average Maturity, Portfolio (A)
(50% x 10) + (50% x 30) = 20 years
14
Comparing Portfolios (A) & (B): Portfolio (B)
Portfolio (B) includes 100% 20-Year zero coupon note
20-Year zero coupon note ===> Duration 20 years
Average Duration, Portfolio (B) = 100% x 20 = 20 years
Average Maturity, Portfolio (B) = 100% x 20 = 20 years
15
Comparing Duration & Maturity of Portfolios (A) & (B)
Portfolio (A) and (B) have same average maturity and different durations
Average Maturity, Portfolio (A) = Average Maturity, Portfolio (B) = 20 years
Average Duration, Portfolio (B) = 20 years Average Duration, Portfolio (A) = 9.5 years Portfolio (B) twice as risky as Portfolio (A)
for same average maturity
16
Implication for Investor -- Portfolio Approach
Question: What is meaning of: “a 20-year municipal bond is “too risky” for an investor”
Answer: Meaning not clear if the 20-year bond is part of a balanced portfolio
Importance of assessing contribution of a security, or asset, within a portfolio approach [ex: fixed income and real estate (inflation hedge)]
17
Example of “Balanced” Fixed Income Portfolio
One third Cash ===> Duration zero One third 1-year bill ===> Duration 1 year One third 20-year municipal bond ===>
Duration 10 years Average duration of portfolio:
(1/3 x 0) + (1/3 x 1) + (1/3 x 10) = 3.6 years Result might well be within risk tolerance of
investor
18
Liquidity Risk
Liquidity Spectrum More liquid ---------to---------> Less Liquid Cash, Gov Securities, ........... Fixed Assets,.. Liquidity risk is associated with existence of
“ready market” where assets may be exchanged at a small difference between sale and purchase price
19
Liquidity Risk
For fixed income securities, liquidity is measured by bid-ask spread in secondary markets
Bid-ask spread constitutes margin of market-makers (small 1/32nd in US)
For cash ==> bid-ask spread = 0 For real estate ==> bid-ask spread > 6%
(agent’s fee)
20
Credit Risk -- Definition
Loss of value of an asset as a result of a party to a contract (seller, issuer,...) not fulfilling a contractual obligation -
Loss of value due to default: spot loss might overestimate real loss
Loss might affect principal and/or interest Securities trading: c.o.d - Opportunity loss due
to change in market value between trade date and delivery
21
Credit Risk -- Estimation
Example: Fixed income Security Years 0----(i) ----(10)------(j)----------(20) Cashflows -----------(C10)-----(Cj)-------(C20) Income -------------<---Forgone Income---> Actual Loss at Year-10 = (In
year-10 value) Potential Loss at time Zero = Actual Loss at
Year 10 / (1+r)10 =
C
r
j
jj ( )1
C
r
r
j
jj ( )
( )
1
1 10
22
Implication for Investor --An Example
Investor must chose 10-Y versus 20-Y Question: If investor’s risk tolerance for a
given credit is 10 years Would investor not buy a 20-Y instrument
from same credit? Answer: Not necessarily ==> Several
scenarios
23
Implication for Investor -- Scenarios
1st Scenario ===> Yield Premium (compensating for risk)
2nd Scenario ===> Guarantee or insurance beyond 10-Y
3rd Scenario ===> Derivatives, such as put option
4th Scenario ===> Collateral, such as mortgage-backed security
24
Guarantee or Insurance
Insurance may be full or partial (say beyond 10 years)
Case 1: Insurance may be necessary for debt acceptance
Case 2: Insurance would reduce price of debt issue and enhance liquidity (USA)
Feasibility: Interest without Insurance > Interest with Insurance + Insurance Fee
25
Other Enhancement Mechanisms
Structured finance and derivatives (e.g. put option allowing maturity “reduction”)
Other non-maturity related enhancements» Collateral (revenue pledge, MBS,...)» Bank letter of credit » Other features such as convertible debt
26
Example of Credit Enhancement“Zero Coupon Collateral”
Several recent cases for bullet repayment Zero coupon “deposited” in segregated account
in “highest credit quality (say US treasuries) Zero coupon to accrue interests so as to
become equivalent to face value of principal upon maturity
Definition of real cost of zero-coupon collateralized principal (ex. of calculation)
27
Risk/Return Analysis -- Definitions
Return = Enhancement in market value of an asset
Risk is measure of uncertainty of outcome
Risk = volatility of returns expressed by Standard Deviation
(Example daily price changes during one year)
28
Simple Risk/Return Measures
A number of ways to define and measure risk
Information Ratio = Return Standard
Deviation Sharpe Ratio = (Return - Risk-free Return)
Standard Deviation
29
Benchmark for Municipal Debt Security
“Risk -free” Government Securities in relevant maturity range
Ymuni = Ygvn + dYn
dYn = premium that covers, inter-alia, two categories of risks: » credit risk» liquidity risk
30
Risk/Return: Portfolio Approach
Long-term investors and hedgers need to know the relative risk of securities so that they may construct portfolios that match their preferences for risk and expected return
Optimize risk/return function:» For one unit of risk ===> Highest return (e.g.
Foundations,...)» For one unit of return ===> Lowest risk
31
Defining a Portfolio for Institutional Investors
Definition of Classes of Assets: Fixed income, equities, commodities, real-estate, currencies,...
Analyses of historical returns (over representative period, say 20 years)
Analyses of volatilities Analyses of correlations
32
Defining a Portfolio for Institutional Investors
Optimization function (e.g. “Efficient Frontier”) with iterations providing percentages for each “class” of assets ==> Asset allocation process
Example of pension fund: government securities, high yield, MBS, marketable equities, private equities, real-estate, currencies,...
33
Structured Finance -- Derivatives
Main categories: Futures, Options, Swaps Derivatives as investment vehicles: leverage Derivatives as hedge and credit enhancement
vehicles Derivatives transfer investment risks to those
(speculators) willing to assume risks Futures, options and swaps traded over the
counter (OTC) or on regulated exchanges
34
Futures
Futures contract is a commitment to buy or sell a security at a future specified date and specified price
Future neutralizes price uncertainties Example of farmer hedging crop with futures Same result may be achieved by put option as
both futures and options provide hedge
35
Swaps
Swaps are arrangements between two parties
Swaps entail exchange of mutual liabilities as these come due
Swaps may involve currencies (US$/DM) Swaps may involve interest rates
(floating/fixed)A B
11%
9.95%
LIBORLIBOR+2%
36
Options
Option is a right -- not an obligation -- to buy or sell an asset at a pre-established price within a specified time period (US), or at a specified time (Europe)
Privilege to exercise such a right entails a fee, or option “premium”
Calculation of “premium” is crucial element Option pricing models for equities and interest
rate instruments
37
Options
Call Option - Market position of an investor/hedger speculating that asset price would increase
Put Option - Market position of an investor/hedger speculating that asset price would decline
38
Option Value -- Bond Example
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Terminal Bond Price ($)
Pro
fit
($)
39
Option Parameters
Definition of “underlying” asset Exercise or strike price Time to expiration “In-the-money”, “Out-of-the-money” and
“At-the-money” options Premium = Intrinsic Value + Time Value
40
Option Parameters
Delta = dP/dF or Hedge Ratio (change in Price P of option to change in price F of underlying security)
Gamma = d /dF = d2P/ (dF)2
Zeta = dP / dV (ratio of change of price to change in volatility V)
Theta = dP/dt (time dimension, time “decay”)
41
Option Pricing
Call price: Increasing function of price of “underlying” relative to “strike” price
Call price: Increasing function of “time to expiration”
Call option price: Increasing function of riskless rate of return (on treasury)
Call price: Increasing function of volatility