Subprime Krizi ve Global Etkileri

2

02.04.2009

US Existing Home Sales

Monthly QaUSHESALES/A 31/03/2003 - 31/07/2009 (GMT)

Line, QaUSHESALES/A, Cvalue(Last), (S1, S2) Value

4.2M

4.5M

4.8M

5.1M

5.4M

5.7M

6M

6.3M

6.6M

6.9M

7.2M

7.5M

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

3

02.04.2009

US Case-Shiller Index

Jan-09, 146.4

Jul-06, 206.52

100

120

140

160

180

200

220Ja

n-00

Jul-0

0

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

4

02.04.2009

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

Total Derivatives 70.1 106.0 149.5 196.2 235.8 388.7 454.5 683.0

Credit Derivatives 0.9 4.6 7.2 12.6 22.6 41.6 72.2 65.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Size of Global Derivatives Markets (Trillions of Dollars)

5

02.04.2009

Markit ABX Index

The ABX Index is a series of credit-default swaps based on 20 bonds that consist of subprime mortgages.

6

02.04.2009

US GDP and ISM Manufacturing Index

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10Ja

n-0

0

Jul-

00

Jan

-01

Jul-

01

Jan

-02

Jul-

02

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

US GDP Growth (% QoQ) (RHS)

ISM Manuf PMI (rHS)

7

02.04.2009

US Initial Jobless Claims and Unemployment

Monthly QaUSUNR/A, QaUSJOBC/A 30/11/2004 - 31/08/2009 (GMT)

Line, QaUSUNR/A, Cvalue(Last), (S1, S2)28/02/2009, 8.100Line, QaUSJOBC/A, Cvalue(Last), (S1, S2)31/03/2009, 652,000.000

Value

4

4.4

4.8

5.2

5.6

6

6.4

6.8

7.2

7.6

8

Value

240,000

280,000

320,000

360,000

400,000

440,000

480,000

520,000

560,000

600,000

640,000652,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Unemployment

Initial Claims

8

02.04.2009

S&P Financial 40 Index

Daily Q.GSPF 31/10/2008 - 02/04/2009 (NYC)

Line, Q.GSPF, Last Trade(Last)01/04/2009, 122.09

Price

USD

.12

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

122.09

03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 20 26 02 09 17 23 02 09 16 23 30

Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09

9

02.04.2009

US Treasury’s Toxic Asset Plan

Legacy Securities

Aim is to restart the market for legacy securities address the liquidity program

Increased leverage through loans by FED using TALF will increase liquidity

Non-recourse loans to investors to fund purchases of legacy securities.

Lending rates, minimum loan sizes and loan durations are not determined.

Eligible securities are triple AAA securities at origination prior to 2009

Treasury will match one-for-one capital by the investor, and could provide twice the amount as loans.

The fund will be eligible to take advantage of the TALF program.

All equity injections will count against the 700 bn cap from the Emergency Economic Stimulus ActPro-rata loss sharing between treasury and private investor

capital is TARP + private capitaldebt is Treasury, FED or TALF

Banks will have an incentive to sell securities that have been downgraded because the risk-based capital charges on these securities would have increased.Accounting relief for the ones that are not sold may be needed as well.

10

02.04.2009

US Treasury’s Toxic Asset Plan

Legacy Loans

Banks will determine which assets to sell.

Eligible assets will be determined by the FDIC, Treasury, banks and regulators.

Details of the asset sale with financing and leverage ratios will be determined by the FDIC prior to the auction, up to six times of equity.

Highest bidder would form a public-private partnership to purchase the pool of assets.

FDIC will issue guaranteed debt secured by the eligible assets to fund the program.

50% of the equity side by side with the investor

Private ,investor would manage the servicing of the asset pool and the timing of its disposition.

Using TARP capital up to 75-100 bn, program will generate 500 bn in purchasing power to buy legacy assetsCould be extended to 1 tn.

Pitfall: Upside is to the private equity holder, Unknown: Banks could be better of by provisioning and keeping the bad loans in their books,but FDIC could strengthen provisioning rules.

11

02.04.2009

Benchmark 10 year US Treasury Treasury Yield

Daily QUS10YT=RR 16/05/2008 - 17/04/2009 (UTC)

Line, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last)02/04/2009, 2.7099

Yield

.1234

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

2.7099

16 02 16 01 16 01 18 02 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 02 16 02 17 02 16 01 16

Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09

12

02.04.2009

US 30 Year Mortgage Rate

Monthly QaUSMBAMLR 29/02/2004 - 31/05/2009 (GMT)

Line, QaUSMBAMLR, Cvalue(Last), (S1, S2, S3, S4)

Value

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

4.61

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

13

02.04.2009

Euro zone GDP and PMI

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-

00

May

-00

Sep

-00

Jan-

01

May

-01

Sep

-01

Jan-

02

May

-02

Sep

-02

Jan-

03

May

-03

Sep

-03

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep

-04

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep

-05

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan-

09

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Eurozone Composite PMI (LHS)

Eurozone GDP Growth (% QoQ) (RHS)

14

02.04.2009

UK Industrial Production and Growth

85

90

95

100

105

110M

ar-0

0

Sep

-00

Mar

-01

Sep

-01

Mar

-02

Sep

-02

Mar

-03

Sep

-03

Mar

-04

Sep

-04

Mar

-05

Sep

-05

Mar

-06

Sep

-06

Mar

-07

Sep

-07

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Industrial Production (LHS)

GDP (q/q %, RHS)

Krizin Türkiye’ye Etkileri

16

02.04.2009

S&P 500 and TRY

Daily Q/.SPX, QTRY= 22/09/2008 - 10/04/2009 (CHG)

Line, Q/.SPX, Last Trade(Last)01/04/2009, 811.08

Price

USD

.12

800

900

1,000

1,100

811.08

Line, QTRY=, Bid(Last)02/04/2009, 1.6120 Price

/USD

.1234

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.612

22 29 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 20 26 02 09 17 23 02 09 16 23 30 06

Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09

S&P 500

TRY

17

02.04.2009

Benchmark Bond Yield vs. CBT Rates (Comp. Ann. %)

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

Jan

-05

Ap

r-0

5

Jul-

05

Oct

-05

Jan

-06

Ap

r-0

6

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-0

7

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-0

8

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Benchmark Rate

CBT o/n

18

02.04.2009

Currency Basket Value (0,5 USD+0,5 EUR)

1.3000

1.4000

1.5000

1.6000

1.7000

1.8000

1.9000

2.0000

2.1000

Jan-

05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5

Oct

-05

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

19

02.04.2009

JP Morgan EMBI+ Sovereign Spreads (bps)

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Ja

n-0

3

Ap

r-0

3

Jul-

03

Oct

-03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-0

4

Jul-

04

Oct

-04

Jan

-05

Ap

r-0

5

Jul-

05

Oct

-05

Jan

-06

Ap

r-0

6

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-0

7

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-0

8

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

EMBI+

EMBI+ Turkey

(EMBI+ Turkey)-EMBI+

20

02.04.2009

Trade Deficit (rolling 12 month-USD bn)

Feb 09, -60.8

Feb 09, -22.2

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0Ja

n-05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5

Oct

-05

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Trade Deficit

Non-Energy

21

02.04.2009

Exports and Imports (3 month MA, y/y, %)

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50Ja

n-07

Feb

-07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug

-07

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08

Feb

-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09

Feb

-09

Total Exports

Total Imports

22

02.04.2009

Exports by Country Region (% yoy)

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150Ja

n-07

Feb

-07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug

-07

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08

Feb

-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09

Feb

-09

Total

EU

Near And Middle Eastern Countries

23

02.04.2009

Net Gold Exports (USD mn)

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Jan

-04

Ap

r-0

4

Jul-

04

Oct

-04

Jan

-05

Ap

r-0

5

Jul-

05

Oct

-05

Jan

-06

Ap

r-0

6

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-0

7

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-0

8

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

24

02.04.2009

Contribution to GDP Growth-Production Side (%, y/y)

5.9

9.7

6.3 5.7

8.1

3.83.2

4.2

7.3

2.8

1.2 0.9

-1.7

-3.4

-8.0

-6.2

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ma

r-0

7

Jun

-07

Se

p-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

r-0

8

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

De

c-0

9

Services

Industry

Agriculture GDP

25

02.04.2009

Contribution to GDP Growth-Expenditure Side (%, y/y)

8.1

3.8 4.2

7.3

2.81.2

0.9

-1.7-3.4

-8.0

-6.2

3.2

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Ma

r-0

7

Jun

-07

Se

p-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

r-0

8

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

De

c-0

9

Net Exports

Change in Stocks

Private Investment

Government Consumption and Investment

Consumption of Households

GDP

26

02.04.2009

Trade Deficit (USD bn)

2008 2009 Jan FebTrade Deficit 5.0 0.1 65.7 60.8

o/w 12 month 23.0 -98.4 Energy 3.0 1.7 39.8 38.5

o/w 12 month 56.8 -43.2 Non-Energy 1.9 -1.6 25.8 22.2

o/w 12 month -8.1 -185.3Total Exports 11.1 8.3 129.2 126.5

o/w 12 month 68.7 -24.9

Total Imports 16.0 8.4 194.9 187.3o/w 12 month 51.3 -47.6

Energy 3.5 1.9 47.0 45.4o/w 12 month 62.1 -45.7

Non-Energy 12.5 6.5 147.9 141.8o/w 12 month 48.6 -48.1

February Rolling 12 m

27

02.04.2009

TRY Bond Yield Curve (%)

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

02/04/2009

19/03/2009

28

02.04.2009

(USD mn)Long Term External Debt Redemptions (Including Interest) and Short Term Syndication Payments of Banks

Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Apr-DecBanks (A) 1,494 1,278 235 1,314 2,581 2,274 302 709 1,866 12,053Non-bank financials (B) 459 684 737 569 857 614 489 523 811 5,743Non-financial (C) 2,164 2,476 3,234 2,184 1,930 3,758 3,701 2,876 2,724 25,047Private Sector (D=A+B+C) 4,117 4,439 4,206 4,067 5,368 6,646 4,491 4,108 5,400 42,843Treasury (E) 607 682 1,979 714 663 1,806 683 491 818 8,443Total (F=D+E) 4,724 5,121 6,185 4,781 6,031 8,452 5,174 4,599 6,218 51,286

Turkish Treasury's Debt Repayments (Including Interest)Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Apr-Dec

Domesic FX Bond (G) 2,559 44 240 107 15 53 42 1,274 12 4,346Eurobond 176 0 1,519 383 320 1,142 176 0 269 3,985

o/w to Turkish Banks (H) 83 0 717 180 151 539 83 0 127 1,880Total FX Supply from Treas. (I=G+H) 2,642 44 956 288 166 591 125 1,274 139 6,226

Turkish Treasury's FX BorrowingApr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Apr-Dec

Domesic FX Bond (J) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Eurobond 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,000 0 1,000

o/w from Turkish Banks (K) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 472 0 472Total FX Demand of Treas. (L=J+K) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 472 0 472

CBT'S FX Supply via Daily Auctions (M) 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 9,000

FX Stress IndicatorsApr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Apr-Dec

Total FX Demand from the Market (N=D+L) 4,117 4,439 4,206 4,067 5,368 6,646 4,491 4,579 5,400 43,315Net FX Demand from the Market (O=N-I-M) 475 3,395 2,250 2,779 4,203 5,055 3,366 2,306 4,261 28,089

Fx roll-over req. of market (O/N) 12% 76% 53% 68% 78% 76% 75% 50% 79% 65%

IMF AGREEMENT, CBT'S FX AUCTIONS CONTINUE

29

02.04.2009

(USD mn)Long Term External Debt Redemptions (Including Interest) and Short Term Syndication Payments of Banks

Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Apr-DecBanks (A) 1,494 1,278 235 1,314 2,581 2,274 302 709 1,866 12,053Non-bank financials (B) 459 684 737 569 857 614 489 523 811 5,743Non-financial (C) 2,164 2,476 3,234 2,184 1,930 3,758 3,701 2,876 2,724 25,047Private Sector (D=A+B+C) 4,117 4,439 4,206 4,067 5,368 6,646 4,491 4,108 5,400 42,843Treasury (E) 607 682 1,979 714 663 1,806 683 491 818 8,443Total (F=D+E) 4,724 5,121 6,185 4,781 6,031 8,452 5,174 4,599 6,218 51,286

Turkish Treasury's Debt Repayments (Including Interest)Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Apr-Dec

Domesic FX Bond (G) 2,559 44 240 107 15 53 42 1,274 12 4,346Eurobond 176 0 1,519 383 320 1,142 176 0 269 3,985

o/w to Turkish Banks (H) 83 0 717 180 151 539 83 0 127 1,880Total FX Supply from Treas. (I=G+H) 2,642 44 956 288 166 591 125 1,274 139 6,226

Turkish Treasury's FX BorrowingApr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Apr-Dec

Domesic FX Bond (J) 2,500 0 1,000 0 0 0 750 1,000 500 5,750Eurobond 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,000 0 1,000

o/w from Turkish Banks (K) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 472 0 472Total FX Demand of Treas. (L=J+K) 2,500 0 1,000 0 0 0 750 1,472 500 6,222

CBT'S FX Supply via Daily Auctions (M) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FX Stress IndicatorsApr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Apr-Dec

Total FX Demand from the Market (N=D+L) 6,617 4,439 5,206 4,067 5,368 6,646 5,241 5,579 5,900 49,065Net FX Demand from the Market (O=N-I-M) 3,975 4,395 4,250 3,779 5,203 6,055 5,116 4,306 5,761 42,839

Fx roll-over req. of market (O/N) 60% 99% 82% 93% 97% 91% 98% 77% 98% 87%

NO IMF AGREEMENT, CBT'S FX AUCTIONS SUSPENDED

30

02.04.2009

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Real SectorReal GDP, % yoy 4.6 1.1 -3.0 1.0 3.5 4.5Nominal GDP, TRY bn 843 950 988 1,069 1,180 1,311Nominal GDP, USD bn 644 732 574 575 596 626CPI, % yoy 8.4 10.1 7.0 6.9 6.3 6.0CPI, % avg 8.8 10.4 6.9 7.2 6.6 6.2

Exchange Rate and Interest rates

EUR/TRY, eop 1.70 2.15 2.41 2.60 2.86 2.82EUR/TRY, avg 1.79 1.91 2.20 2.53 2.73 2.84USD/TRY, eop 1.17 1.52 1.78 1.92 2.04 2.15USD/TRY, avg 1.31 1.30 1.72 1.86 1.98 2.10EUR/USD, eop 1.42 1.42 1.35 1.35 1.40 1.40EUR/USD, avg 1.37 1.48 1.27 1.36 1.40 1.40Real effective exchange rate, % yoy 10.1 -11.0 -8.0 -2.0 2.0 2.0Policy interest rate, % eop 15.75 15.00 10.00 11.50 10.00 9.00Benchmark bond yield, % eop 18.35 16.45 14.20 14.50 13.00 12.00

Fiscal Sector, % of GDPCentral government balance -1.63 -1.80 -5.18 -3.50 -3.50 -3.00Central government primary balance 4.08 3.54 0.62 2.10 2.10 2.60Central government primary balance (IMF definition) 2.57 1.87 -0.47 1.00 1.00 1.50Net Public debt 29.1 27.6 33.1 34.9 33.7 31.4 Domestic 27.8 26.1 29.3 29.9 28.7 26.5 External 1.3 1.4 3.8 5.1 5.0 4.9Central Government Gross Debt 38.9 39.3 46.7 48.5 47.2 44.9 Domestic 29.8 28.4 32.1 32.7 31.5 29.3 External 9.1 10.9 14.6 15.8 15.7 15.6

External Sector, USD bnCurrent account -37.7 -41.6 -12.3 -22.6 -36.2 -38.4

% of GDP -5.8 -5.6 -2.1 -3.9 -5.9 -6.2

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

31

02.04.2009

External Financing (USD bn)

Jan Feb-Dec Full Year

Outflows 76.8 84.1 3.4 53.1 56.5Current Account Deficit 37.7 41.6 -0.3 11.1 10.8Debt service (MLT) 39.1 42.5 3.7 42.0 45.7

Public 13.6 10.5 0.4 6.1 6.5Private 25.5 32.0 3.3 35.9 39.2o/w: Corporate 22.4 24.8 2.9 28.8 31.8o/w: Banks 3.1 7.2 0.4 7.1 7.5

Inflows 76.8 84.1 3.4 53.1 56.5FDI (net) 20.1 15.4 0.6 10.4 11.0Portfolio (private equity; net) 3.1 -0.6 -0.8 0.0 -0.8Borrowing (MLT) 63.0 62.3 3.3 43.7 47.0

Public 5.9 5.2 0.0 19.0 19.0o/w: IMF 1.1 3.6 0.0 15.0 15.0

Debt securities 1.3 -0.8 0.0 1.0 1.0o/w: TL-securities (net) -3.3 -4.8 -1.0 0.0 -1.0

Private 57.1 57.1 3.2 24.8 28.0o/w: Corporate 47.8 47.4 2.1 21.1 23.3o/w: Banks 9.3 9.6 1.1 3.6 4.7

Short-term (net) 2.7 4.7 -0.6 -8.1 -8.7Currency and deposits (net) -5.1 -3.4 -1.0 1.0 0.0

Errors & omissions 1.1 4.6 1.7 4.0 5.7Reserve use (' - ' = reserve build-up) -8.0 1.1 0.3 2.0 2.3

Source: TurkeyDataMonitor; CBT; TEB

20072009

2008

32

02.04.2009

Current Account Balance (USD bn)

Jan Feb-Dec Total

Current Account -37.7 -41.6 0.3 -11.1 -10.8as % of GDP -5.8 -5.7 … … -1.9Merchandise trade (BOP def.) -46.7 -53.2 -0.1 -20.0 -20.1

as % of GDP -7.1 -7.3 … … -3.5Exports (f.o.b.; TURKSTAT def.) 107.3 132.0 7.9 96.4 104.3

o/w: Energy 5.1 7.5 0.2 2.8 3.0

Imports (c.i.f.; TURKSTAT def.) -170.1 -202.0 -9.3 -129.5 -138.8o/w: Energy -33.9 -48.3 -2.5 -18.5 -21.0

Services 13.9 17.5 0.4 16.7 17.1o/w: Travel (net) 15.2 18.4 1.0 15.7 16.7

Income -7.1 -7.9 -0.3 -10.1 -10.4as % of GDP -1.1 -1.1 … … -1.8

Current transfers 2.2 2.0 0.3 2.3 2.6

Non-energy current account -9.0 -0.9 2.6 4.7 7.3Merchandise trade (TURKSTAT def.) -62.8 -70.0 -1.4 -33.1 -34.5

Non-Energy -34.1 -29.2 0.9 -17.3 -16.4Energy -28.7 -40.7 -2.3 -15.8 -18.1

Oil price (world price) 72.7 97.9 43.4 39.9 40.2

Source: Turkey Data Monitor;CBT;TURKSTAT; TEB

20072009

2008