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Bringing data to life. 1
Proprietary and Highly Confidential. 2014 daVIZta, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Successful Gross to Net Sales Forecasting & Analytics Practices
2016 CBI Product Forecasting Summit
1
Thursday, June 23, 2016
Jennifer SharpeSenior Director, Revenue Analytics Collaborative
2Proprietary and Confidential
is a private network of only
industry professionals
anonymously sharing their
Commercial, Government, and
Gross-to-Net expertise
The Collaborative is over
425 professionals and
105 pharmaceutical, biopharma,
biotech and medical device
companies.
June 16, 2016 3Proprietary and Confidential
“Deriving Insights, Driving Results”
ConsultingData
Management
Software
HighImpactInsights
DeliveryExcellence
DomainExpertise
Decision Enablement
• For over 6 years daVIZta has been servicing the Life Sciences industry
• We currently employ nearly 90 business and technical professionals in three global locations coming from a broad set of backgrounds across Life Sciences
• Have serviced 30+ top-tier, mid-market, and emerging Life Sciences companies across our three verticals
• For over 6 years daVIZta has been servicing the Life Sciences industry
• We currently employ nearly 90 business and technical professionals in three global locations coming from a broad set of backgrounds across Life Sciences
• Have serviced 30+ top-tier, mid-market, and emerging Life Sciences companies across our three verticals
Vision: Enterprise Revenue Analytics
Mission: Mitigate Risk & Improve Profitability
June 16, 2016 4
Revenue Analytics SoftwarePortfolio
Revenue Analytics SoftwarePortfolio
Gov’tPricing
VIZualizerReporting
Engine
Gross to Net
Managed Care
Analytics
• Gross to Net Forecasting• Rebates Accruals• Chargeback Accruals• Medicaid Accrual• Price Increase Impact
• Deal/No-Deal Modeling• Formulary /Restrictions/Co-
Pay Impact• Price Protection Forecasting• Side-by-Side Comparison• Customizable Forecasting• Forecast Overrides• Cross Channel Impact• Actuals vs. Expected
• Medicaid Program• Federal Supply Schedule• Medicare Part B• 340B PHS• Price Comparisons and
Trends
Price and ContractManager
ClaimSMart
• Pricing Terms Maintenance
• Central Contracting / Price Terms Repository
• Managed Care Rebate Calculation and Validation Solution Set
• Medicaid Claims Rebate Calculation and Validation Solution Set
• Brand Analyses• Channel Analyses• Market Segment Analyses• My Dashboards • My Reports• On-Demand Query/Reports
Proprietary and Confidential
5
EGWPPlans
Managed Medicaid MCOs
Affordable Care Act
Medicaid Expansion
Coverage Gap
Gross-to-Net Forecasting Challenges Over the Years
FinalRule
Mega Rule
20112011 20132013 2014201420122012
HealthCare Reform
20152015 20162016 20172017
Payer/Wholesaler Consolidation
Price Protection
What’sNEXT?
A G E N D A• Organizational Design
• Process Flow
• Data & Assumptions
• Systems
• Methodologies
6
DataData MethodologyMethodology ForecastForecastAssumptionsAssumptions
Org Design, Process & SystemsOrg Design, Process & Systems
Managed Markets Finance
Brand Finance
Pricing & Reimbursement
Organizational DesignGross-to-Net Forecasting: Where does it belong?
Marketing Finance
FP&A
Contracts & Pricing
Revenue Analytics
Sales Operations
GTN/RevenueManagement
GTNForecasting
Accounting
8
Organizational Design
Poll the Audience:Where does your GTN forecasting reside?A. FinanceB. OperationsC. Shared
Poll the Audience:Have you been impacted by a reorganization in the past 18 months?A. YesB. No
9
Accounting
Contracts & Pricing
Managed Markets
FinanceSales
Forecasting
Gross to NetBrand
TeamMarket Access
Contract Terms &
Rates
Channel Forecast& Analytics
TRx &/orUnit
National Forecast
Contract Strategy
National Assumptions
GTN Accruals& Reporting
Review & Guidance
Gross Sales Forecast
Process FlowGross-to-Net Forecasting: Is There an Ideal Process Flow?
10
Process FlowCross-Functional Unity
Poll the Audience:Do you have a cross-functional Executive Pricing Committee?A. YesB. No
Poll the Audience:Do you have a cross-functional Working Pricing Committee or Gross-to-Net Management Team?A. YesB. No
11
Process FlowOne Version of the Truth
Poll the Audience:Is your GTN Forecast the basis or baseline for your GTN accruals?A. YesB. No
Poll the Audience:Does your extended forecasted team ‘own’ data, assumptions and forecast?A. YesB. No
• ERP/Payment SystemsRebate and Chargeback claim dataUnit Rebate Amount (URA)Best Price (BP)WAC PricingContract/Rebate Rates
• Thirds Party Data IMS/Sympony TRx and NRx demand data (Plan/Payer level) ValueCentric/Integrichain Inventory Data Customer/States LIVES data
DataGross-to-Net Forecasting: There’s Never Enough?
13
• Sales Forecasting/Brand Team– Market Share– Market Growth– WAC Pricing
• Sales Force/Contract Team– Forecasted Customer/State LIVES data– Contract /Rebate Contract Rates and Terms
• Government Team– Forecasted Unit Rebate Amount (URA)– Forecasted Best Price (BP)
AssumptionsGross-to-Net Forecasting: Trust Them?
EXCEL
ACCESS
CONSULTANT/HOMEGROWN EXCEL MODELS WITH
TOOLSETS
DATABASE/QUERY TOOLS OFF
ERP & PYMT SYSTEMS
SECUREAUTOMATED
SOLUTION∂-Rive™
SystemsGross-to-Net Forecasting: What Do You Use?
15
SystemsPoll the Audience:
What vehicle do you use to forecast?A. Homegrown Excel Model
B. Excel Model built by external party
C. Homegrown Automated Model
D. Automated Model built by external party
Poll the Audience:
Do you believe there is valuable ROI for automation?A. Yes
B. No
16
• Mathematical Trends
• Statistical Algorithms
• Assumption Based
– Product, Market and Customer Events
– Uptake (Launch) and downturn (LOE) curves
– Internal and External Product and Customer Analogs
MethodologiesGross-to-Net Forecasting: Everyone Needs One…
17
• Demand Sales basis is ideal• Rebate actuals by ‘earned’ period is ideal• Bottoms-up harmonized with a Top-down approach• Inventory Roll-forwards• When insight/data available, avoid historical trends and
leverage multi-assumption based methodologies• Perform 3rd party data analytics• Assumption Based• Layering in Product, Market and Customer Events• Leverage internal and external Analogs
MethodologiesGross-to-Net Forecasting: Successful Practices
Please Contact Us With Any Questions
18
• Jen Sharpe
– Phone: (908) 247-9105
– Email: [email protected]
Proprietary and Confidential