Sudan Climate Change- Balgis Elasha

Elasha -Osman isBalg Dr. 2009 ,January

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By

Dr. Balgis Osman- Elasha

Photo: by Dr. Mohamed El

Gamri /Sudan University-

Khartoum


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Table of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................... 5

1 STATE OF ENVIRONMENT IN SUDAN ...................................................................................................... 12

2. CURRENT SCIENCE ...................................................................................................................................... 15

2.1 CURRENT VARIABILITY AND VULNERABILITY TO VARIABILITY .................................................................. 15

2.2 PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE ....................................................................................................................... 19

3) PHYSICAL AND SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACTS & IMPLICATIONS ................................................. 23

3.1 AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY ................................................................................................. 23

3.2 HUMAN HEALTH ......................................................................................................................................... 26

3.3 WATER RESOURCES AND NILE ECOSYSTEM .................................................................................... 28

3.4 IMPLICATION FOR CONFLICTS AND MIGRATION TRENDS ......................................................... 31

4) ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT ...................................................................................................................... 35

4.1 ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (AICC-AF14)

PROJECT .............................................................................................................................................................. 36

5. EARLY WARNING AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTING ..................................................................... 37

6. SHORT TERM RELIEF VERSUS LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT ....................................................... 42

7) CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................... 45

8) RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................................................. 49

9. ANNEXES ......................................................................................................................................................... 54

1 UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH DATA ............................................................................................................ 58 2. UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH USE OF SCENARIOS

58 2.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS ........................................................................................................................ 58 3. UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE USE OF IMPACT MODELS....................................................................... 60


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5. SUMMARY OF THE SUDAN’S FIRST NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS REPORT ........................ 72

5.1 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................................. 72

5.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE SUDAN'S NC ........................................................................................................ 72

5.3 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT ......................................................................................... 74

5.3.1 STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................................ 75

5.3.2 USE OF SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................................. 76

5.3.3 V&A ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTRY PRODUCTION ............................ 76

5.3.4 WATER RESOURCES ....................................................................................................................................... 78

5.3.5 HUMAN HEALTH .................................................................................................................................... 79

5.7. FUTURE PERSPECTIVES/ WHAT IS NEEDED TO IMPROVE THE UTILITY OF FNC? ....................................... 80

6. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE-RELATED INITIATIVES (SEE TABLE 4 FOR A COMPLETE

LIST OF RELATED INITIATIVES) ................................................................................................................. 81

6.1 AIACC-AF14 ................................................................................................................................................... 81 6.2 SUDAN NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN OF ACTION (NAPA) ........................................................................ 81

7. REGIONAL INITIATIVES ............................................................................................................................. 82

ANNEX (16) ........................................................................................................................................................... 84

8. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................ 84

ANNEX (18) ........................................................................................................................................................... 94

TABLE (4) LIST OF CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED INITIATIVES IN SUDAN ................................... 94


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Acknowledgements

This work was funded under DfID contract and TOR.

The views expressed in this paper are the sole opinion of the author

who takes full responsibility for errors and omissions.


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Executive Summary

This report aims to provide information on climate change impacts and adaptation in Sudan, based

on the findings of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Study under the Sudan's 1st.. National

Communication (2003), The Sudan AIACC1-AF 14 project (Environmental Strategies to Increase

Community's Resilience to the Impacts of Climate Change) and the National Adaptation Program of

Actions (NAPA). It also aimed at reviewing other relevant literature and reports from local regional

an international sources on Sudan, in addition to post 2003 reports in Africa focusing e.g. on IPCC-

AR4, and TAR

Climatic pressures

Like many of the sub-Sahara countries, Sudan is a country of inherently fragile ecosystems,

high climatic variability, frequent droughts and floods and ongoing desertification. Climatic

records and literature pointed out the fact that historically Sudan has faced a number of

climate extremes that have increased the fragility of its ecosystems and in turn livelihoods.

Of its diverse ecological zones, more than half the country can be classified as desert or

semi-desert, with another quarter, arid savannah; much of the country’s land area is

considered highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation.. Beside major

drought events that have engulfed the whole country, Sudan has also experienced a series of

localized droughts, often every two years, mainly in western Sudan in Kordofan and Darfur

regions and parts of the central Sudan. These are widely known to have contributed to

fuelling of the prolonged civil conflicts that have had a devastating effect on the rural

population.

The results extracted from climate scenarios for Kordofan region in Western Sudan indicated

that average temperatures are expected to rise significantly relative to baseline expectations,

e.g. by 2060 a warming is projected in the range of 1.5°C to 3.1°C, during August to 1.1°C to

2.1°C during the month of January. Projections of rainfall under future climate change

conditions also shows sharp deviations from baseline expectations. Results from some of the

models show average rainfall decreases of about 6 mm/month during the rainy season.

However, there is still much uncertainty implicit in the choice of GCM and greenhouse gas

forcing scenarios; an uncertainty further compounded by the additional complications

Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors 1


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introduced by downscaling. These uncertainties need to be addressed through the use of

regional circulation models and to develop national capacities in relation to generation and use

of climate models.

It is evident that, the effects of climate variability and change are real with impacts already

affecting Sudan's ecosystems and human health. The negative impacts associated with climate

change are also compounded by many factors, including widespread poverty, conflicts and

human diseases. Under the previously-mentioned projected climate change, changes in

temperature and precipitation could further affect the productive capacity of rainfed

agriculture, and thus, in the security of the nation’s food supply. Sudan is thus faced with a

pressing challenge of addressing the national priorities of food security, water supply, and

public health.. The ability for long term projection as well as short term anticipation of how

climate will change from one year to the next will lead to better management of agriculture,

water supplies, and other resources. Moreover, by incorporating climate change into

management decisions, human livelihood systems would become better adapted to the

variability and changing rhythms of climate.

.Non- Climatic pressures

Significant pressure are been excreted on Sudan's fragile urban environment resulting from a

rapidly growing urban population in the absence of national land use planning and

development, weak infrastructures and increasing un-employment and poverty rates.

Furthermore, the increasing rural-urban migration resulted in abandoning of agricultural land,

declining agricultural productivity and threatening food security and rural livelihoods. This

situation is exacerbated by the increasing number of IDPs due to civil strife and conflicts in

the south and Darfur.

Key findings

A range of risks associated with climate change are expected to affect the livelihoods of

people in Sudan. These include both direct and indirect ones resulting from the rising

temperature, the expected decrease in rainfall and related problems. The livelihoods of poor

communities living in fragile environment are likely to be most affected by changes in the

frequency of extreme climate events particularly floods, droughts and high temperatures.


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The increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall is expected to lower the quality of

traditional rangelands, resulting in reduced productivity of pastures for grazing livestock. In

addition, large areas of rainfed agricultural land would suffer these changes. A southward

shift of the Gum arabic belt (Acacia senegal trees) has also been observed indicating a

prevalence of a dryer condition northward. It is evident that many knowledge gaps exist in

relation to projection of impacts in the different regions of the Sudan and the different sectors.

This emphasized the need for further assessment of potential impacts on e.g. irrigated

agriculture, urban and rural livelihoods as well as for identifying options to decrease

vulnerability to climate change in a holistic and integrated manner.

Climate change vulnerability analysis

Different national and regional V&A studies in Sudan and Africa (UNFCCC, 2006, IPCC,

2007). 1st.National communication and the Sudan's National Adaptation Plan of Action

(NAPA) study (NAPA, 2007), have shed light on the link between climate and livelihoods in

Sudan. They have also identified water resources, food security and human health as major

climate change-related concerns for the country.

The First National Communications of Sudan (NC, 2003) offers a more detailed picture of

local vulnerability, using future scenarios of temperature and precipitation to model impacts

on agriculture. It represented the first attempt to explore the relation between the observed

impacts on natural and human systems and past and current climate variability, as well as

exploring the potential impacts of future climate change on the different sectors over one of

the most important regions of Sudan.-Kordofan- as an area depending mainly on rainfed

agriculture, with the traditional farmers and pastoralists being the most vulnerable and the

least resilient groups to climate-related variability and shocks In this key agricultural region,

production of sorghum and millet food crops - critical to food security - was found to decline

significantly by the years 2030 and 2060.2 Clearly, both the challenges and the urgency to

identify adaptation options for reducing adverse effects, highlight the linkages between the

impacts on different natural resources sectors and other environmental, socio-economic

consequences of climate change.

2 Government of Sudan (forthcoming) (2002) First National Communications under the UNFCCC.


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Some studies projected a reduction of Nile water flows by as much as twenty five percent

from climate change over the next twenty to forty years. In such case, serious security

implications .could be expected on irrigated agriculture such as the Gezira irrigation scheme

(one of the largest in Africa) in central Sudan, and the Nile Reverie agriculture in the

Northern states of Sudan.. Scenario of reduction in the water resources, coupled with

economic development and increases in population, may also trigger conflict between the

different countries sharing the basin.

The growing threat to vulnerable communities is particularly vital in the face of declining

development assistance. Responses by governments and organizations to climate variability

have tended to be reactive in nature, and the types of options considered have tended to

depend on relief and post disaster mitigation rather than planned adaptation measures. It is

found that inspite, of more than 20 years of relief and emergency food in the region of eastern

Sudan, still the region faces a very high malnutrition rates (the highest in the country)

indicating a lack of real improvement in the state of chronic livelihoods vulnerability that

characterizes peoples of the region—particularly pastoralists. It also indicates that the

provision of free food aid is not an adequate strategy to address the needs either of the

refugees, or of the other vulnerable communities. Local community groups started to view

this approach as unsustainable, undermined their traditional coping capacity and contributed

to the creation of relief –dependent groups highlighting the needs for adopting a more

developmental approach.

The increasing climate variability and change (drought and land degradation), and the

consequent impact on the overall agricultural productivity and food security resulted in

serious competition over the resources and conflicts which have mostly been triggered by

resource- related rivals and disputes over water and fodder, cattle theft, access to land, and

grazing fields. It is moreover, obvious that the on-going conflict in Darfur is increasingly

impacting food supply and access to food insecure areas in the region. The result is more

migration and displacements. A situation that is expected to worsen under climate change,

triggering a more movement across the country and between boundaries.


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Coping capacity

A number of studies revealed that some options (coping strategies) proved successful in

increasing the adaptive capacity of the local communities in the face of climate variability.

They have also contributed to improving their abilities to manage their livelihood assets and

gaining a number of positive and tangible outcomes. The options identified include;

improved water harvesting and storage, diversification of livelihoods, creation of alternative

income sources, increased savings and purchasing power, better grain production and storage

facility, and access to markets. The findings from different adaptation studies e.g. AIACC

study could help influence Sudan’s key decision-makers toward adopting practical means of

adaptation to adverse climatic conditions – mainly drought- and demonstrate the essence of

integrating climate adaptation with broader development policies. However, a more

integrated approach is needed if these options for addressing climate change impacts are to

be integrated with other national and sectoral development policies and work programmes

Climate prediction and early warning: In the past 20 years considerable progress has been

made in improving systems for providing short-term forecasts on extreme weather events,

which allows timely action to be taken in the realm of disaster management. Yet there is

also a need for information systems to support longer-term risk assessment and monitoring.

Many gaps related to the accessibility, content, language and format of information have

been identified and need to be addressed. There is also a need to improve the preparedness

and ability to response in a more timely manner.

Recommendations

There is an urgent need to address current vulnerability to climate variability in Sudan.

Policy makers from national governments and donor organizations should not to be

discouraged by the many uncertainties linked to projections of future climatic changes.

Practical actions are urgently needed to address emerging adaptation needs of vulnerable

communities and sectors. Actions to be implemented should support a broad-based resilience

building with no-regret interventions.

Climate variability and change need to be factored into all aspects of development planning,

by government and donor organizations. This would contribute to achievement of societal and


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environmental .resilience as well as the achievement of important sustainable development

goals (e.g. MDGs).

It is also important to involve different stakeholders in all efforts and programs aiming at

addressing climate change impacts and adaptation at the different levels. Of particular

importance is the facilitation of NGOs participation in national and international climate

change activities, policy forums, education and training, and dissemination of public

information.

A new policy is required by donor communities and relief organizations for disaster

mitigation and for tackling recurrent food emergencies through linking relief resources with

development interventions. Reducing people’s vulnerability to expected climatic hazards and

to increase their coping capacity should be considered as one of the main objectives of any

development planning.

The direct link between resource use, climate variability and conflicts calls for strategies that

aim at achieving peace and security through tackling the root causes and addressing

environmental and social pressures instead of the ineffective military solutions that only deals

with the symptoms and disregards the many contributing factors. One way to achieve a

sustained stability could be through factoring in climate change implications into conflict

resolution and peace building processes Efforts should also be made to create an enabling

environment for a more targeted regional and international cooperation in climate-related

transboundary issues e.g. the increasing pressure on water resources calls for the development

of international cooperative mechanisms to manage shared water resources such as. the Nile

Basin Initiative.

Climate variability and change could trigger additional resource-based conflicts and disputes.

This could adversely impact the number and distribution of refugees and Infernally Displaced

People (IDPs), the delivery of humanitarian assistance as well as any proposed new recovery

and development programmes. It is therefore, important to integrate climate change into

multi-donor planning processes such as UN Workplan / (UN, 2007), and partners in Sudan

MDTF- WFP.

Efforts need to be made to disseminate available information on potential adaptation options

identified under different climate change- related studies. Practical adaptation options

successful experiences could then be replicated/ up-scaled to other regions of the country

particularly highly vulnerable poverty-laden parts.


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There is a need for national governments and donor organizations to adopt a coordinated risk

assessment approach, that assess the risk, identify the vulnerability and develops a longer term

strategy that incorporate disaster prevention and management in the development planning

process rather than simply reacts to offset negative impacts after they occur.

Given the intimate link between climate and sustainable development, there is a need to

improve seasonal forecasting on time scales from months to a year and the provision of

probabilistic climate information. Moreover there is a need to broaden the public

understanding of climate change (impacts and responses) in Sudan, and to provide adequate

resources and expertise in handling climate issues within the country. It is equally important

to improve the technical capacity of national institutions -producers and users- of climatic

forecasts and early warning information, in order to enhance the output, uptake, and use of

climate products. Additionally, there is a need to develop an improved system of information

and product dissemination and feedback between the national, sub-regional and regional

partners.

Resources are needed to address the methodology and data gaps identified by previous

assessments and studies, and to develop the technical capacity and skills necessary to

undertake vulnerability and adaptation assessment using sophisticated modeling and remote

sensing techniques. Special emphasis should be given to these important research areas on

economic implications of climatic impacts as well as and evaluation of adaptation options in

terms of e.g., cost- effectiveness, applicability and accessibility.

Financial and technical support is needed for human as well as institutional capacity building

to access international funds though e.g. preparation of fundable proposals that could attract

donors' investments in climate change projects.


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1 State of Environment in Sudan

Sudan has a total area of approximately 2,505,810 square kilometers (967,499 sq mi),

including desert and water bodies.), making it the largest country on the continent of Africa.

This area lies between 4-22°N and 22- 36°E. The span over 18 degrees of latitude has given

Sudan its characteristic variety of environments, hence diverse ecosystem and biological life.

It is endowed with vast natural resources extending from desert in the north to tropical rain

forest in the South. The country borders the Red Sea, Eritrea and Ethiopia to the east; Kenya,

Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo to the south; the Central Africa Republic and

Chad to the west; and Libya and Egypt to the north. The land area is comprised primarily of

flat plains, rising in the East and West to mountain ranges, with the Nile River and its

tributaries comprising most of the hydrology of the country. (See annex 9 map of Sudan).

Water resources is one of the most critical issue in many parts of the country specially the

Western and Eastern parts. More than 40%, of the people suffers from a shortage of good

quality water for drinking, and sufficient quantity for farming. This water deficiency is the

result of natural factors such as erratic rainfall and drought as well as lack of rural

development and consequently a key driver for poverty, poor health and rural-urban

migration. The government development project in the water sector focused on exploitation

of ground water through artesian wells and the utilization of rivers water through the

establishment of large scale dams. Both programs need a systematic evaluation to ensure that

this development is environmentally sustainable and the impacts on the livelihoods of local

communities are taken into consideration.

Climatic records and literature pointed out the fact that historically Sudan has faced a

number of climate extremes that have increased the fragility of its ecosystems and in turn

livelihoods. The climatic variability has been particularly evident in the wide fluctuations in

precipitation patterns and other related environmental hazards that prevailed over the past

several decades leading to soil erosion and desertification problems. .

Severe droughts have already lead to serious degradation in the arid land of northern Sudan,

estimated at fifty one percent (about 1,259,440 square kilometers)3 between latitude 10 to 18

degrees north. This zone is characterized by extreme arid conditions continuously fed by

3 Sudan National Action Plan to Combat Desertification (SNAP), p. 15


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recurrent drought, land degradation, deforestation, soil nutrient loss. This was illustrated by

a study conducted by the National Drought and Desertification Unit (NDDU), which showed

a gradual shift of the rainfall isohyets during the period 1930-1990 from north to south,

indicating the southward expansion of arid condition and the subsequent decline in crop

production and natural vegetation cover (forests and rangeland), (NDDU, 2006).

The severity of impacts resulting from these climate-related incidents could also be

attributed to the multiplied effect of many other non-climatic factors, including the general,

low level of economic development, and the lack of alternative income generating

opportunities especially for rural people who largely depends on natural resources for their

livelihoods, in addition to the lack of adapted technologies (Osman-Elasha, 2007).

Other human-induced vulnerability includes; the poor management and over exploitation of

the natural resources, institutional and policy failure. With the main drivers being; the

accelerated population growth, rural poverty, insufficient knowledge and awareness of

environmental issues; disruption of socioeconomic systems and the increasing number of

refugees and IDPS due to past and on-going conflicts.

In many areas of Sudan forests resources have been severely depleted, due to heavy

dependence on fuelwood, charcoal and log timber in addition to expansion of mechanized

agriculture. Deforestation rates across the country have been calculated at greater than 1.8%

per annum and cumulative losses exceed 70% in central, north and east Sudan. The net result

is large-scale deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion. These factors have contributed

to rural poverty in the marginal dry-land areas leading to large scale migration Without

major actions on halting the wave of degradation and restoring the productivity of the land,

the natural resource base will simply continue to deteriorate whilst demands grows. If this

occurs, much of the Sudan would be expected to face a state of chronic poverty and conflicts,

such as the one occurring now in Darfur. (HCENR/UNEP, 2007).

Agriculture in Sudan is a combination of subsistent farming and production of cash crops.

The latter is generally characterized as market-oriented of irrigated or rainfed large scale

farms. Agricultural production remains the country's most important sector, accounting for an

output of more than 70% of all non-oil exports over 2001-2005 periods. With around 32

million feddans of arable land (4.4 million fed irrigated), the sector provides employment for

approximately 80% of the work force and contributing to 39% of GDP. Rainfed farming


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accounts for 70 % of all agriculture, farming basically based on shifting cultivation and

animal husbandry. The rainfed sector is characterized by low productivity and vulnerability

to climate variability. This vulnerability is expected to adversely affect all prospects for

future food security. With more than 137 million animal heads, livestock represent an

important component of the agricultural sector. Livestock production is mainly based on

traditional pastoral systems (90 percent of the livestock in the country belong to the

traditional pastoral production systems). Pastoral societies particularly in western Sudan have

always been relatively vulnerable climate variability particularly erratic rainfall and drought

which frequently lead to big losses on their animals and subsequently their livelihoods.

Traditionally, those pasturalists stick to some social values and norms which give more

appreciation and respect to people with large number of animals. This repeatedly–

particularly during periods of good rainy season- has resulted in increasing livestock

population beyond the carrying capacity of the pasture land. The resultant land degradation

and desertification have commonly triggered competition between pastoralists and farmers

over the already declining resources, which in many times had turned into local disputes and

conflicts.

The conflicts, drought and rural poverty had created a huge number of displaced people,

totaling approximately five million. This have created a range of environmental impacts

including the generation of random settlements and urban slums, water shortage, lack of

basic services, environmental sanitation problems, deforestation and environmental

degradation surrounding settlements and tree removal leading to deforestation.

94% of Sudan’s population is considered below the poverty line. The human Poverty Index

(HPI) value for Sudan is 32.4%, ranks the 59th among 103 developing countries for which

the index has been calculated.4 (Yale, 2005). Liberalization of the economy without the

necessary social safety nets is blamed for this high level of poverty. This was further justified

by (Bior, 2000), who noted that the fruit of economic growth has benefited only a few

minority leaving the majority languishing in poverty. However, poverty has always been

linked to climate-related factors particularly drought, a fact documented in both historical

and contemporary records of famines in Sudan and other neighbouring countries. The records

explained that environmentally degraded areas, where the poor mostly live have always been

4 Human Development Report 1997 introduced the human poverty index (HPI), which focuses on the proportion of people below a

threshold level in basic dimensions of human development - living a long and healthy life, having access to education, and a decent

standard of living, much as the poverty headcount measures the proportion of people below a certain income level. The HPI-1 measures

human poverty in developing countries


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the most vulnerable areas to natural disasters, particularly droughts, sand storms and crop

failures, and their subsequent impacts which range from hunger to severe famine and death.

It worth mentioning here that, many other non-climatic factors had persistently contributed to

increasing the vulnerability and suffering of people living in these areas, including; the low

coping capacity, poor livelihood capitals, limited access to modern agricultural inputs and

alternative income sources. A study conducted by (Ali., (2002), noted that to achieve the

MDG on poverty Sudan's GDP needs to grow by an annual rate of 7.2 per cent, requiring an

investment rate ranging from 35% to 42% of GDP. It further concluded that a reasonable

horizon for reducing Sudan's poverty by half would be 28 years starting from 2001, i.e.

almost double the horizon implied by the MDGs.

According to the Environment Protection Law, 2001, all newly proposed development

project are mandated to undertake an environmental impact assessment (EIA). However, this

is not always the case as many large development projects tend to escape this process,

specially those which have the political support and government blessing (e.g. oil exploration

and refining), and consequently, the social and environmental impacts of such investment are

not usually considered. Moreover, and due to many factors including technical, institutional,

and financial constraints, the reinforcement of the law is still constrained.

2. Current scientific knowledge

2.1 Current variability and vulnerability to variability

Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of climate change as the majority of its land

is quite vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation as well as to extreme

climatic conditions such as floods and droughts that have occurred throughout its recorded

history. The 2nd

. Half of the 19th

. Century has particularly witnessed a pattern of declining

rainfall culminating in the wide-spread 83-84s drought. However, the observed declining

trends of rainfall over Sudan could be attributed to many factors ranging from an irregular

pattern of climate variability, occurring naturally or due to human induced factors -e.g.

over exploitation of natural resources- to a strong signal of global and regional climatic

changes.


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Climate variability in Sudan –mainly drought- have tended to concentrate in the arid and

semi-arid zones of the west and northeast, where the rainfall is erratic, agricultural

environment is marginal, the resource base poor, and the income and asset base of the

population are thin and variable (Osman, 2007). The country's inherent vulnerability

may best be captured by the fact that more than 70% of its population is directly

dependant on climate sensitive resources for their living with their food security mainly

determined by rainfall. Between 1961 and 1998, a number of drought episodes have

inflicted Sudan with varying severity and impacts. The most severe droughts have

always known by their devastating impacts on people's livelihood as well as their wide

scars in the face Sudan's economy. Examples are the droughts of the early mid 1970s

and ten years later of the early mid 1980s, which have brought about a number of

strikingly negative impacts, ranging from the loss of lives and property to the break

down of social fabric and traditional tribal structures, and ultimately the mass migration

of rural population to urban areas. Table 1 below shows the vulnerability situation in

the different geographical areas of Sudan.

Beside major drought events that have engulfed the whole country, Sudan has also

experienced a series of localized droughts, often every two years, mainly in western

Sudan in Kordofan and Darfur regions and parts of the central Sudan. The

meteorological records show an increased degree of variability over these particular

parts. For example, in western Sudan variability of annual rainfall increased from 16

percent in the 1960s to 21 percent in the 1970s and 32 percent in the.80s. These

observed changes could likely be attributed to the relatively slight global warming of the

late 20th century, (IPCC 2001b). Due to the high vulnerability of these regions, in many

cases drought has been followed by famine. The two greatest famines since 1684, when

the historical record begins, are those of 1888-89 and 1984-85. Both were triggered by

consecutive years of poor rain that led to massive crop. Failure. (See annex 2 and annex

7 for rainfall variability).


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Table (1)

Vulnerability situation and priority areas for interventions across Sudan (2007) Source: Adapted from WFP, 2006 Sudan Annual Needs Assessment/ Food Security Report and a meeting with WFP

staff (annex 11 )

Area Climate related

stress

Climate change

trend/trajectory

Other factors contributing to

vulnerability

Priority areas for

Interventions

(Gov or NGO) Country-

wide

A sub-Sahara

country which is

highly

vulnerable to

climate

variability and

change

Climate change is

expected to have a

negative impact on major

economic sectors and

systems – exacerbating

the vulnerability of the

whole country and calls

for immediate actions to

improve adaptation

Chronic war over the last century

High dependency on agricultural

sector with unstable performance.

Wide-spread poverty(more than

50%of the population have income

below the poverty thresholdofUS$1.8

per day (WFP, 2006)

Large outstanding debt and limited

access to concessional financing

(IMF estimated the debt at $27

billion)

National development

programmes

Awareness on climate

change impacts

Integration of Climate

change into key

national programmes

such as roads, health

(units, vaccination

etc..)

Southern

Sudan

Climate

variability-

shifts between

droughts and

floods

Although no climate

projection has been

developed for S. Sudan

but the projection for Sub-

Sahara Africa indicates a

likely increased frequency

of extreme climatic

events ( drought and

floods) (IPCC, 2007)

which will largely

hamper the on-going

development programs ,

causing additional

suffering to the people,

more displacement

,famines and the need for

more relief .

Long term war and lack of security

Weak institutional structures e.g. no

evidence of local level or Civil

society organizations risks of further

conflict from pressures.

Returnee influx in the context of the

peace agreement

Lack of infrastructure- particularly

transport

High transaction costs for trade from

surplus to deficit areas

Localized crop failures in Northern

Bahr-el Ghazal and Eastern

Equatorial

Potentially increased Lord Resistance

Army (LRA) activities

Basic services

health, education,

provision of water

supply esp. in newly

populated villages.

Support the return

(livelihoods) of the

IDPs to their original

villages

Agric. And veterinary

services

Darfur

Drying trend

over decades,

localized

droughts and

flooding

The declining rainfall

trend is projected to

continue in the Western

parts of Sudan (Darfur

and Kordofan) with

increasing variability.

Hence, further

deterioration of people's

livelihoods, impairing

peace efforts and have a

-ve impact on the long

term development plans

by government and

international community.

Chronic conflicts over natural

resources

Scarce sources of water resources

Declining human health

Heavy pressure on degraded

landscapes including pasture, land,

water, fuelwood

Risks of vector borne disease –

malaria /

Further escalation in the conflict

Decline in funds for humanitarian

assistance

Risk of cross-boarder conflicts

Lower cereal harvest

Further curtailment of access

/mobility

Potential increase in camp based

population

Humanitarian

operations camp

management and food

aid

Provision of basic

services (water, health

and education)


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Eastern

States

(Kassala

and Red

Sea

States)

Erratic rainfall

Frequent drying

Increased dust

storms

(Hababay)

Frequent floods

from El Gash

River in Kassala

Current climate variability

is expected to continue in

the future – this coincide

with the IPCC findings

which indicates the

increasing probability of

extreme climatic

conditions in terms of

frequency, intensity and

duration (IPCC, 2007).

The heavy rainfall in the

Ethiopian highlands and

Gash floods during this

year is a live picture of

the vulnerability of this

region to climatic

changes.

Chronic food insecurity due to

serious structural failure- Red Sea

State

Limited livelihood options for IDPs

and weak service infrastructure –

chronic poverty – spread of TB

diseases particularly among children

Politically charged and volatile

conditions in Hoomesh Koreib-

Potential refugee influx due to

tensions between Eritrea and

Ethiopia (currently Kassala state host

75000 Eritrean refugees and the Red

Sea host 95000 IDPs.

Decline in urban labour employment

opportunities due to mechanization

in Port Sudan

- Higher consumer prices due to

inflammatory effect and unstable

market

difficulties in procurement and

logistics of supply Increased food

insecurity (seasonality),

improved access to

water , food aid and

improved security

Rehabilitation of

villages, improved

access to health and

education services and

restoration of

livelihoods.

Agricultural inputs

and general

development

programming

North

Kordofan

Arid land erratic

distribution of

rain

Repeated

localized

droughts,

Pest and crop

diseases

The results of the climate

and socio-economic

scenarios, indicated that

the Kordofan region’s is

going to experience more

climate variability e.g.

erratic rainfall, frequent

droughts and dust storms

( see Annex 15

summary of the NC and

annex 18)- This would

have severe implication

on important sectors such

as the water, agriculture

and pastures.

Heavy dependence on rainfall

(agric.& pasture)

IDPs from Bahr Alghazal State

Decreased numbers of livestock due

to distress sales and animal diseases

Depleting household assets, loss of

traditional income sources. Increased

poverty

Security problem in the south west

(neighboring Darfur

High % of out migration and women

headed households

Food aid (WFP)

Water and sanitation

Human health service

(esp. child and

maternity health)

Basic education

services

Veterinary services

Agricultural and

pasture extension

Regular monitoring of

the food security

situation

Southern

Kordofan

Climate

variability –

localized

recurrent

drought

Same as above

Conflict zone- Nuba mountain for

more than two decades

High percent of women-headed

households

High percent of IDPs

Reduction of livestock from raiding

Food aid

Health services and

water sanitation

Education facilities

Water points along the

migratory routes of

livestock

Restocking of

livestock

Veterinary services

Abyei Occasional

dryness

Bird attacks for

sorghum fields

Insect

infestation on

water melon

fields

Current climate variability

is expected to continue in

the future – increasing

probability of extreme

climatic conditions in

terms of frequency,

intensity and duration

(IPCC, 2007).

Conflict over land and pasture

between the Messeria and Dinka

tribes


peace agreement

Potential conflict associated with

delimitation of boarders and right

issues- nomadic and sedentary

Provision of agric.

Inputs

Provision of water in

newly populated areas

Basic education and

health services

Veterinary services

Blue Nile Localized heavy Increasing variability is Host 165,000 IDPs and refugees Health services and


19

rains expected over the region

of East Africa – including

Ethiopian highlands- this

will lead to increasing

number of IDP and

refugees.

Livestock theft/looting

Spread of epidemics e.g. lechmania

and hepatitis

vaccination

Education

Water sanitation

Agricultural extension

and veterinary services

Khartoum Arid land

Erratic rainfall

Seasonal floods

Increasing climate

variability in different

parts of Sudan would

negatively impact

Khartoum leading to more

disasters (floods,

contamination, health

problems, etc.. and more

influxes of IDPs.

Encroachment of urban settlement

over flood-prone areas and

agricultural land along the Nile

Expansion of shanty towns and

settlements

Increasing number of refugees and

IDPs

Planning of IDPs

settlements and the

provision of :

Health services and

vaccination

Education

Water sanitation

Northern

States(El

Neil and

Northern

States)

Repeated

localized floods

Frequent sand

storms and sand

encroachment

over fertile soil

The projected increase in

temperature and the irratic

pattern of Nile water

levels would negatively

impact the crop

production (wheat, beans

and dates)-The expected

variation of the Nile flow

could also increase the

frequency of floods over

the villages and islands.

food insecurity

Out migration due to limited

livelihood options

Lack of basic health service

lack of landuse plan

Erosion of the Nile Bank (hadam)

Rehabilitation of

villages, improved

access to health and

education services and

restoration of

livelihoods.

Agricultural inputs

and general

development

programming

- Flood control

2.2 Projected climate change

Future changes in Sudan's climate variables (rainfall and temperature) still need to be modelled,

as very few related assessments have been conducted so far. According to Hulme, 1989) results

obtained from a range of future climate scenarios revealed that only one of a total of ten

developed scenarios indicated a regenerated rainfall, the other nine scenarios are heavily

weighted towards either maintenance of the current declining trends in rainfall or else a further

decline, (see annex 2 for the sensitivity to rainfall). He concluded by disclosing that "in view of

this output and until our understanding of current drought mechanisms and modelling of the

effects of global warming improves, it would seem prudent for Sudan to assume a continuation of

the current depleted rainfall resource into the twenty-first century "(Mike Hulme, 1989).

Undertaking impact assessments (in relation to agriculture, water and malaria) is contingent on

available climate- scale scenarios at time and space scales of relevance to the regional levels.

The Global Climate Models (GCMs) is considered as the principal tools for deriving climate

change scenarios. Sudan employed the scenario approach in the V&A assessment conducted

under the 1st. National Communication (HCENR, 2003). The assessment covered Kordofan

region in the western part of Sudan. This region being part of Africa Sahel could be considered


20

as representative to most of the arid areas of Sudan (more than 70%). It is characterized by

highly arid climate which is already vulnerable to natural variability and extreme climate e.g.

erratic rainfall and frequent dust storms. The vulnerability of the region is illustrated mainly by

using climate scenario analyses. Two climate change projections were considered under the

impact assessment; one with the expected climate change likely to take place by the year 2030

and the other which is likely to occur by the year 2060. This approach serves to provide an initial

overview of the potential climate change in the region. The results extracted from climate

scenarios indicated that average temperatures are expected to rise significantly relative to

baseline expectations. By 2060, projected warming ranges from 1.5°C to 3.1°C, during August

to 1.1°C to 2.1°C during the month of January. Projections of rainfall under future climate

change conditions also shows sharp deviations from baseline expectations. Results from some of

the models show average rainfall decreases of about 6 mm/month during the rainy season.

Using FAO Impact Model, the simulation tested several GCM scenarios. The results revealed

that, drought would become more pronounced with a number of impacts on livelihood systems

projected. (See the table below for a summary of projected climate change scenarios). However,

it is evident that for climate change issues, there is still much uncertainty implicit in the choice

of GCM and greenhouse gas forcing scenarios; an uncertainty further compounded by the

additional complications introduced by downscaling. It is important to address this issue of

uncertainty through the use of regional circulation models and to develop national capacities in

relation to generation and use of climate models. There is also a need to develop climate change

scenarios for the different regions of Sudan, and to making climate projections readily available

to those who have need of them for planning purposes.

Projected climate change as derived from different scenario

Climate parameter Future climate change

for the 2030s

Future climate scenarios

for the 2060

Certainty level

Increasing

temperatures

0.8 To 1.4 in Elobied

using GDFL and

HADCM2 resp.

1.1 to 3.0 in Elobied using

GDFL and HADCM2 resp.

High confidence, good

agreement between

climate models.

Change in

precipitation

Seasonal differences: e.g

ElObied 12 ml increase

during August to 6 ml

decrease in Sept. (GDFL) 5

-

- Seasonal differences: e.g

in ElObied 20 ml increase

during August to 7 ml

decrease in July and 10 ml

decrease in Sept. (GDFL)

Medium confidence,

medium agreement bet.

Climate models t

5 See the figure below


21

Extreme events

Increasing Drought

More erratic rainfall and

drought conditions

Fluctuations in

rainfall

Medium confidence

Projected average monthly precipitation difference at El Obeid in 2030 from selected GCMs

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

HADCM2-IS92A

GFDL-IS92A

BMRC-IS92A

ΔP

(mm

/mon

th)

Based on the above scenarios of projected climatic changes, a range of associated risks

are expected to affect the livelihoods of people in Sudan. These include both direct and

indirect ones resulting from the rising temperature, the expected decrease in rainfall and

related problems. The combination of increasing water scarcity and rising temperatures

will affect sectors of the economy that are particularly dependent on ecosystem goods

and services, for example agriculture, forestry and livestock, lowering people’s

vulnerability6. The livelihoods of poor communities living in fragile environment are

likely to be most affected by changes in the frequency of extreme climate events

particularly floods, droughts and high temperatures. Important services such as electricity

(hydro-power generation) will also be affected to some degree by erratic rainfall and

drought. The duration of each drought event plays the most important role in

characterizing its hazard level, due to the fact that droughts develop slowly and may last

over a period of many years. Moreover, drought could have very severe secondary

impacts including, famine and health-related problems, conflicts and mass migration. A

number of impact studies conducted in Sudan indicated that livelihoods of different

stakeholder groups would be impacted at varying degrees by climate variability and

6 Vulnerability is defined as the people's exposure to hazard and their susceptibility to its impacts which results from climate

variability and change. It is therefore, a function of the impacts' magnitude and capacity to anticipate, cope with, and recover

from hazard. (IPCC 2001a)..


22

change (see table 2). UNDP, (2004). Figure (1) below shows the relative vulnerability to

drought 1990-2000- with Sudan and Ethiopia being among the most vulnerable countries

to its impacts.

Figure (1) the relative vulnerability to drought 1990-2000

Source: UNEP-GRID/Geneva

Furthermore, the studies emphasized the need for assessing the various impacts on

livelihoods as well as identifying options to decrease vulnerability to climate change in a

holistic and integrated manner (HCENR, 2003, AIACC-AF14, 2006).

Examining Sudan's vulnerability within the context of the Africa Sahel, it is also evident

that the projected high variation of rainfall coupled with warming and the absence of

irrigation would have a negative implications on water supplies and demands and impacts

on the irrigated and rainfed agriculture. The implications expected under such regional

and national climate scenarios include; further exposure of the whole region to high risks

of food insecurity and a prevalence of human diseases (NC, 2003, Barton D. and Morton


23

J., 2003, IPCC, 2007). These issues have been highlighted as key vulnerability concerns

in many V&A studies in Africa (UNFCCC, 2006, IPCC, 2007). They also concur with

the results obtained from the Sudan's vulnerability and adaptation study under the

1st.National communication (see annex15 and annex 18 on technical gaps in the First

National Communication) (HCENE, 2003), and are further supported by the Sudan's

National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) study (NAPA, 2007). These studies have

shed light on the link between climate and livelihoods in Sudan and have identified water

resources, food security and human health as major climate change-related issues for the

country. They highlighted the urgent need to develop measures that address sector-

specific problems by the government, international and regional organizations. In this

respect it is important to note that, addressing the specific needs of the most vulnerable

groups was one of the main objectives of the NAPA. Considering the limited ability of

the identified vulnerable groups to cope with the expected adverse effects of climatic

changes, they have special need for urgent assistance and a targeted support that would

enable them maintains their livelihoods.

3) Physical and Socio Economic Impacts & implications

3.1 Agriculture and food security

The Agricultural sector including forestry and livestock sectors are largely influenced by

climatic variability and change. Analyses of agricultural vulnerability indicate that the

key attributes of climate change are those related to climatic variability, including the

frequency of non-normal conditions (Smit et al. 2000). It also indicate that the

productivity of agriculture is dependent upon temperatures, the length of the growing

season, available soil moisture and climate extremes such as droughts, dust storms and

floods. Livestock are particularly sensitive to water availability, temperature, and access

to pasture. The observed climatic change in Eastern Africa including Sudan (increased

temperature and decrease precipitation) e.g. from 1996-2003 has been accompanied by a

decline in the long-cycle crops (e.g., slowly maturing varieties of sorghum and maize)

across most of eastern Africa, thereby impacting the available food supply (Funk et al.,

2005). Temperature increases have also stressed livestock, leading to reductions in milk

production and affecting their health.


24

Due to Sudan's inherently climate sensitive agricultural systems, climate variability

and change have always affected its agricultural production. Under future climate

change and consequently increasing variability, further declining of agricultural

productivity would be expected. This has been illustrated by the climate change

models for Kordofan State in Western Sudan which showed an unfavourable

precipitation scenario (large reductions in precipitation and an increase in temperature

(see annex15 in summary of NC, 2003 and annex 18 on technical gaps in the First

National Communication). In general terms, this would severely impact the rainfed

agriculture- upon which 70% of the population depends-. The study indicated a

southward shift in moist agro climatic zones, indicating a shrinking area of crop

production coupled with a decline in food crop yield of up to 82% for sorghum and

up to 76% for millet. This would reflect negatively on in the availability of food,

leading more people to suffer from food insecurity. The increase in temperature and

decrease in rainfall will also lower the quality of traditional rangelands, resulting in

reduced productivity of pastures for grazing livestock. In addition, large areas of

forest land would suffer from the impact brought about by the interaction between

temperature and water shortages. It is evident that some biological effects of climate

change are already apparent in Sudan, notable is the southward shifts of the Gum

arabic belt (extending between 10-14o across Sudan), indicating a prevalence of a

dryer condition northward (HCENR, 2003).

In a recent FAO Food Prospect Report, (2007) Sudan was put under the list of

countries in crisis, requiring external assistance i.e. countries that are expected to lack

the basic resources to deal with reported critical problems of food insecurity. In this

list the food crises are nearly always attributed to a combination of factors. Moreover,

crisis here was characterized as severe localized food insecurity. This is mainly due to

the influx of refugees, a concentration of internally displaced persons (see annex 10),

as well as areas with combinations of crop failure and deep poverty. (Table 2 shows

the number of people in need of food aid in 2007).


25

Table (2) Planned number of people to receive food aid in Eastern Africa

(As of March 2007)

Country Number of people

Ethiopia 8.6 million of which 7.3 million chronic food insecure people

Sudan 4.6 million (mainly Darfur and Southern Sudan)

Somalia 1.125 million (expected to increase with new displacements)

Kenya 3.1 million (including 280,000 Somali and Sudanese refugees)

Uganda 2.3 million (including IDPs, refugees and vulnerable people)

Djibouti 70,000

Adapted from WWF, 2006

In Eastern region of Sudan, pastoralist groups - (mainly Beja) - have traditionally been

practicing mobile pastoralism as a response measure to the region’s low and erratic

rainfall, the low biological productivity of the soil and cyclical droughts. Over the years

these groups have developed flexible responses to address the complexity and the

fragility of their environment in ways that are respectful to the natural resource base.

However, the increasing frequency and intensity of drought intensified by a set of

external forces has progressively undermined the capacity of these groups to survive in

this difficult environment (Morton, 1993). The increased inability of pastoralists,

particularly the Beja, to cope with and recover from climatic crises was one of the main

reasons that the drought that hit the region in the mid-1980s degenerated into a famine of

disastrous proportions. Added to that the lack of adequate policies and of investment in

services and infrastructure in those areas which have also hampered people's capacities to

manage livelihoods in the prevailing challenging environmental conditions.

Drawing on material from recent collection of papers on food security, nutrition, and

livelihoods in Sudan. In the special issue of Disasters Journal, edited by faculty at the

Feinstein International Center with the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy

at Tufts University. It was indicated that despite more than 20 years relief and emergency

food in this region of eastern Sudan, still the region faces a very high malnutrition rates

(the highest in the country) indicating a lack of real improvement in the chronic

livelihoods vulnerability that affects people in the region—particularly pastoralists (P.

Sara, 2006). It has then become increasingly apparent that the provision of free food aid


26

is not an adequate strategy to address the needs either of the refugees, or of the other

vulnerable communities in eastern Sudan. (Abdelatti, 2003). (See section 4.2 on relief

versus development). This persuaded many of the agencies that had participated in the

relief operation to become increasingly involved in development activities. In most areas

the shift from relief to development interventions was preceded neither by rehabilitative

measures aimed at reconstituting productive assets (e.g. livestock), nor by an in-depth

analysis of the changes undergone by the Beja livelihoods system and an assessment of

which coping or adaptive strategies might more effectively be reinforced.

The increasing climate variability and change, and the consequent impact on the overall

agricultural productivity and food security situation could be the spark that triggers a

state of violence (Tearfund, 2007). Such a situation underlines the fact that the current

crisis in Darfur is not only a political conflict but also a fight for increasingly scarce

resources, including water and grazing lands. (Annex 8 on humanitarian activities in

2004). It is also obvious that the on-going conflict is additionally impacting the food

supply, as insecurity remains a major factor in inhibiting access to food to conflict areas

in Darfur regions. According to a report by WFP, 2006, currently, the most food insecure

areas are those areas which were most affected by the war and where many impoverished

displaced are now returning. (See annex 10 on refugees and IDPs).

South Sudan is one of the most vulnerable areas regarding food security. Despite an

apparently strong asset-base, pastoralist and agropastoralist communities in southern

Sudan are among the most food insecure groups. Their vulnerability relates primarily to a

long history of conflict (over nearly 200 years), resulting in a gradual erosion of

traditional safety nets and social networks. Superimposed on the persistent conflict were

repeated shocks such as droughts, crop pests and animal disease epidemics, and seasonal

variations in food availability. The literature on pastoralism, drought and famine in the

South doesn't only highlights the linkages between animals, rain and human hunger but

also the disproportionate impact of drought on children. Catley A, et al, 2005, noted the

fact that pastoralist children are particularly susceptible to interruptions in milk supply

because they consume relatively more milk than adults.

3.2 Human health

According to the (IPCC 2001a, IPCC, 2007), more extreme weather events, more floods,

and more resulting property and ecosystem damage are expected world-wide. Increasing


27

number of people are facing climate-related health problems with severe implications.

More than a million people a year die from malaria, the majority being in Africa, in

addition, 2 million annual deaths result from diarrhea, almost all in Africa and Asia

(WHO 2004).

The Climate Information for Development Report (GCOS, 2006), noted the high

attention given by African scientists to the impacts of climate on nutritional status,

economic performance, and diseases such as meningitis and malaria. It has also indicated

that unusual rainfall patterns were associated with malaria epidemics among the

vulnerable populations of the Sahel and that meningitis outbreak also had a relationship

to climate. It is observed that in sub-Saharan Africa, malaria epidemics arise suddenly in

mostly remote, disadvantaged settings without effective early warning systems. These

findings underline the importance of application of climate information to provide early

warning for malaria, cholera, bilharzias and meningitis epidemics. Other health-related

vulnerability includes the impact of severe drought on water quantity and quality

(diarrhea and cholera), subsequent food security problems and the resultant poor

nutritional status of the population.

The V&A study conducted in Kordofan on the potential impact of climate change on

human health focused on malaria as the most widely-spread disease in Sudan. The

assessment- concluded that the potential changes in temperature and precipitation

anticipated under climate change would lead to increase in transmission potential,

suggesting a change in the current distribution and intensity of malaria incidence in

Kordofan as well as in many areas of Sudan e.g. Darfur (for more information see annex

15) . This link was further examined by Checchi F. et al, 2006, who reported that the

combination of increased rainfall and higher temperature in desert-fringe areas would

signal the beginning of an outbreak of malaria, while excessive rainfall beyond the

historical seasonal average would signal the likelihood of an outbreak in arid and semi-

arid areas of Greater Darfur (the three states of Darfur -North, South and West Darfur).

To address the increasing incidence of malaria in Darfur, a malaria preparedness and

response plan was prepared by the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) of

Sudan, in collaboration with the State Ministry of Health (SMoH) of the three Darfur

states. The World Health Organization (WHO) is to provide technical oversight, advice

and data management support for the operationalization of the plan in Greater Darfur (El


28

Sakka H., 2005) (figure 2 below shows the major components of the malaria

preparedness and response plan)

Fig (2) the major components of the malaria preparedness and response plan,

(El Sakka H, 2005)

3.3 Water Resources and Nile Ecosystem

Past and current challenges to water resources in Sudan have demonstrated the great

influence of climate variability and change. A particular challenge for water resources

management are extreme events, such as prolonged droughts which reduce water

availability, or periodic extreme rainfall events, which result in extensive run-off and

increase the risk of flooding.


29

Rainfall projections for Western Sudan (Kordofan), generally indicate a decrease in the

rainy season. The water deficit in Kordofan is predicted to worsen as a result of climate

change in milestone years 2030 and 2060, as compared to the historical baseline (1961-

1990). Interestingly, the decline in rainfall is only part of the story; the effect of rising

temperatures and increased Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET) may have the most

significant impact on people's livelihoods. However, change for the other regions of

Sudan is still uncertain due to lack of studies, but it is evident that climate change (e.g.

rising temperature) would increase water demand while supply would decrease,

highlighting the need to manage water in such a way to increase supply or reduce

demand.

Climate change is also expected to influence water demand for irrigation and other uses.

Some experts believe that serious threat exist regarding its impact over the next twenty to

forty years expecting a reduction of Nile water flows by as much as twenty five percent.

However, if the negative projections prove accurate, the basin is likely to experience

profound environmental change with serious security implications. This is expected to

have serious implications on irrigated agriculture such as the Gezira irrigation scheme

(one of the largest in Africa) in central Sudan, and the Nile Riverine agriculture in the

Northern state (confined to a narrow strip of gerf 7 land on either side of the River Nile of

the desert). Although the potential irrigable area in Sudan is estimated at 2.8 million

hectare but only two third of it is currently utilized. In 2005 only one third was actually

cultivated, due to a suite of factors e.g. poor irrigation and drainage infrastructure,

accumulation of sediments into the canals and salinization problems. Climate change

would exacerbate these pressures adding significant implications to this important sector.

Few other studies have recently attempted to evaluate the impacts of climate change on

runoff in the Nile Basin. Conway, 2005, stated with a high confidence that temperature

will rise but according to Hume et al, 2001 and 2003, there are disparities between

models on rainfall predictions over both the Blue Nile and White Nile. The various

mathematical, hydrological and theoretical models and assumptions have produced

inconsistent results ranging from a fifty percent reduction in runoff in the Blue Nile Sub-

basin due to a twenty percent decrease in precipitation, to an increase in water runoff up

to the year 2025. This differing assumptions have lead some experts to argue that what is

7 Fertile soil along the bank of the river


30

lacking is not just the data and forecasts, but also the capacity in each basin state to

analyze the available information and come out with solid conclusions (Yacob, 2005).

Nevertheless, temperature rise will lead to greater loss through evaporation placing

additional stress on water resources regardless of changes in rainfall. Nine climate

scenarios showed decreases in Nile flows from zero to approximately 40 percent by 2025

(Strzepek et al, 2001). Such scenario of reduction in the water resources, coupled with

economic development and increases in population, may trigger conflict between the

different countries sharing the basin. Shiva (2002) describes a number of cases where

competition over water resources and the displacement of populations as a result of dam

building have led to conflict within nations.

Where climate change places additional stress on water resources and encourages the

building of dams to address increased water stress, such conflicts will be more likely to

occur. Example of a related potential conflict is the planned heightening of the Khor

Arba’at Dam in Eastern Sudan for the purpose of diverting more water for urban use in

the capital city of Port Sudan to alleviate severe water shortage during summer time. The

project is expected to reduce the volume of water spillover that supplies the Arbaat

community. Potential adverse effects of reduced water supply to Arbaat include reduced

cultivated area, displacement of families, spread and invasion of aggressive mesquite

trees into fertile agricultural land, and reduced production of food for subsistence and

marketing, i.e. inducing maladaptation.. Members of the Arbaat community are

petitioning the government through traditional and religious leaders. (Abdelatti, 2003,

Osman, 2006).

On the other hand, some may argue that enhanced pressure on water resources may

encourage the development of international cooperative mechanisms to manage shared

water resources. An example is the Nile Basin Initiative, which is a multi-donor

supported initiative led by GEF/WB. The initiative regards the regional coordination and

cooperation as a basis for improved water resource management under the principle of

benefit sharing. The essence of such an integrated regional management approach for

shared ecosystems is gaining more national, regional and international attention with the

consideration of the additional potential pressures arising from climate change.


31

3.4 Implication for conflicts and migration trends

Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change. A

range of assessments have shown that many of African countries and communities are

sensitive and vulnerable to extreme climate events, particularly drought which have

continuously contributed to migration in Africa with one third of its people living in

drought-prone areas (IPCC, 2007).

Drought and conflict are often inextricably linked. These combined effects have been

widely felt in many countries of the world, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where

they pose the main threat to long-term food security and economic progress. Climate

change is likely to lead to food deficits in these regions due to recurrent drought and

crop failure. Scarce water and food had always triggered conflicts and civil wars which

is one of the main reasons for mass migration and displacement. Migration is expected

to intensify in the different regions of Africa with projected increases in the number of

environmental refugees – those who are exposed to climatic shocks, in addition to war

refugees. The recent IPCC report highlighted the impacts of internal and across –boarder

migration as a response measure to climate –induced stresses, and its severe resultant

impacts e.g. escalating conflicts, more pressures on natural resources and loss of

biodiversity (IPCC, 2007). According to FAO, 2005, repeated food emergencies are

concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where the majority of the affected countries (61

percent) are hosts to civil wars (see figure 4). A situation that reflects the limitation and

inadequacy of the recovery and rehabilitation efforts for addressing the problem of

chronic food insecurity and vulnerability to drought. Since livelihoods in this region

depends mainly on the presence of natural pastures and rain water, then it is more likely

that nomadic pastoralists will be heavily impacted, to the extent that they may be forced

to undertake large scale movements and trans-boundary migrations which will

eventually lead into conflict with settled communities, Magadza (2000).

Sudan had hosted refugees for the last three decades .from neighboring countries.

Eastern Sudan used to be the main reception and camp centre for Eritrea and Ethiopian

refugees. Sudan also provided asylum to a significant number of refugees from other

countries in recent years, primarily from Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo

(DRC), Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda. Estimates for 2005 indicate that


32

approximately 147,000 refugees were officially recognized in Sudan. The International

Displacement Monitoring Centre estimates that two million IDPs now live in

Khartoum, accounts for an approximately 40 percent of Khartoum’s total population.

The drought and land degradation followed by conflicts are considered the main factors

leading to both migration and displacements. Consequently, this situation is expected to

worsen under climate change with more movement across the country and between

boundaries. The large influxes of refugees from neighbouring countries to Sudan could

have a number of implications including the environmental impacts through

indiscriminate clearing of trees for domestic energy and housing. While the increasing

numbers of IDPs could lead to the expansion of urban slums and exert continued

pressure on the provision of basic services such as safe water, education and health

services, as well as threaten food security and increase the urban poverty. It is therefore,

important that the organization and donor communities take the expected climate

change impacts into consideration when drafting their country relief and development

programs. Moreover, it should be considered a pre-requisite for the responsible

government institutions to mainstream climate –related concerns and implications into

all the national plans and strategies.

Fig (4) frequency and primary causes of food emergency: Source (FAO, 2007)


33

Environmental resources are crucial to livelihoods and cultural identity of Darfur people,

who used to maintain food self-sufficiency, except in unusually bad drought years. But,

the current crisis of development’ combined with a history of ecological hardships, and

severe famine episodes have excreted a massive pressure on the people and devastated

their coping capacities Under such condition of high vulnerability, it becomes evident

that any climate variability, in the form of erratic rainfall, short term or long term

drought, could lead to a state of production failure leading to hunger and consequently

conflicts between different land users (e.g. farmers and livestock herders). With the

presence of free arms- evidenced in Darfur- this situation ended up in an armed violence

and civil wars. (Fig 5 shows rain fall variability in ElFashir – North Darfur). Jeffrey

Sachs8 makes a clear connection between climate-induced drought and conflicts. He

noted that climate change will increasingly pose security threats across the world, as it

causes or exacerbates huge ecological challenges, among them, the looming worldwide

water crisis. Taking Darfur as an example, he indicated that since the 1980s drought,

Darfur suffered from extreme poverty, which is the undoubted origin of the present

conflict in the region. Moreover, he urged the worlds’ governments to focus their

resources to such underlying challenges, and suggests that all governments establish

ministries of sustainable development (Sachs, 2006).

.A recent study aiming at developing a National Plan for Environmental Management in

Post Conflict Sudan (HCENR/UNEP, 2007), reported that the connections between

conflict and the environment in Sudan are both multifaceted and persistent and that

historically, a small scale conflicts have mostly been triggered by resource- related

rivals, which sometimes escalates into major conflicts. Causes for these conflicts include

disputes over water and fodder, cattle theft, access to land, and grazing fields. Many of

the conflicts were in part over the use of common and shared natural resources; these

same resources are then further undermined by the conflict. The report emphasized the

need for understanding the underling causes of historical and current conflicts in Sudan

as an essential step towards addressing the chronic environmental problems as well as

the resulting conflicts (HCENR/UNEP, 2007)..

8 Jeffrey Sachs is professor of Economics and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.


34

Fig 6 below shows a comparison of the number of local conflicts attributed to

competition over land and grazing to that attributed to other administrative or political

causes.

Fig (5) shows a variation in rainfall with a declining trend during the same period of Fig

(6).

Source: Badi, 2005)

Fig (6) causes of local conflicts in Darfur 1930-2000 Source: (HCENR/UNEP, 2007)

Causes of local conflicts in Darfur 1930-

2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Grazing, water and land Adminstration and politics

Causes of conflicts

Rainfall in ElFashir 1930-2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1930-1939 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000

Years


35

4) Adaptation Assessment Reliant upon ecosystems that are, in many cases, fragile or degraded, the population of

Sudan can ill afford the added challenge of increased ecological stress that climate

change could bring. This makes adaptation essentially a priority area for Sudan.

A vulnerability and adaptation assessment that have been conducted under the Sudan's

1st. National Communication provided a primary indication of the potential impacts of

climate change on important sectors (water, agriculture and health). Some response

measures have been identified as possible strategies for addressing climate change

impacts (decreasing precipitation and rising temperature). They include:

crop diversification and the use of drought-resistant varieties;

rain water harvesting, conservation and management;

public awareness;

Government allocation of water use revenues for water infrastructure

development, rehabilitation and equipment maintenance;

Improved water utility and reduction of loss through introduction of water

conserving technologies in delivery systems and related research programs.

water pricing and tariffs, incentives for high efficiency and penalties for wasted

water;

Two other adaptation projects were undertaken to assess adaptation

o AIACC-AF14 (for more details of the project see annex 6).

o The National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) (for more details see

Annex 16 )

Both presented an opportunity for Sudan to undertake a bottom-up assessment of

adaptation and produce a set of highly prioritized coping strategies that could be developed

further into adaptation projects suitable for addressing the real needs of the Sudanese

people


36

4.1 Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AICC-AF14) Project

This project is motivated by the observation that adaptation cannot be effectively

undertaken separate from poverty alleviation and sustainable development activities in

general, just as poverty alleviation efforts will be short-lived if undertaken without

consideration of climate change and improved coping needs. It aims at addressing the

knowledge gap and the limited information that exists for adaptation decision making

at all the levels. It focuses in Sudan, where drought is a current threat and will

continue to be in the foreseeable future – potentially worsening under climate change.

Under this scenario, activities to improve community and household capacity to cope

with drought are of particular importance. Certain environmental management

strategies (sustainable development activities) in Sudan – whether approached from a

poverty alleviation or natural resource management perspective – have been quite

effective in this regard. The project explored three examples of such experiences,

documenting both, the lessons they had to offer and, equally important, a methodology

to extracting those lessons and to improve our understanding on how to support

community coping capacity.

The project explored the post 80s drought period in Sudan which have witnessed a

number of interventions by international development agencies, aiming at reducing the

impacts of drought. While most of the efforts focused on the provision of short term relief

and emergency food, some attempts have been made to address the root causes of the

problem by providing long-term solutions through developmental options. Many of these

options involve the implementation of specific interventions by organizations such as the

UNDP/GEF, SOS Sahel, OXFAM etc., aiming at increasing the ecological sustainability

(water harvesting and conservation, rehabilitation of range lands, shelterbelt, employment

of a sustainable management system and the support and encouragement of the

application of strict regulations and sanctions over utilization of the meagre resources.

The assessment aimed to identify, explore and discuss such strategies in order to make

them accessible, readily understandable and useable to the policy-making process.

(Osman, 2006, Osman, 2007, AIACC-AF14, 2006).


37

The analysis of the conditions after the interventions revealed that some options (coping

strategies) proved successful in increasing the adaptive capacity of the local communities

in the face of climate variability. They have also improved their managing abilities for

their livelihood assets and had gained a number of positive and tangible outcomes

(Osman et al, 2006). Productivity and ecological management have evolved favorably

and to a great extent sustainable. Part of the interventions are meant to reduce subsistence

vulnerability through; diversification of income sources, increased savings and

purchasing power, better storage facility, and access to markets. Other important

strategies targeted the social capital through the formation of locally based organization

(community development committees), and had contributed to solving many past

problems associated with lack of skills, commitments, responsibilities and work division

which reflected the importance and role of empowerment. The exploration of the three

case studies revealed several broad themes, which echo basic principles of sustainable

livelihoods and sustainable rural development. AIACC-Af14, 2006.

5. Early warning and short-term forecasting

Climate prediction, early warning and information systems are key tools for mitigating

disaster impacts. Forecast and early prediction efforts in many African countries

including Sudan, has gone mainly into food security early warning systems, which

operate at national level in southern, eastern and Sahelian regions, and are supported by

respective regional intergovernmental organizations and the international systems of

FAO and USAID. These have become generally effective in providing timely

assessments of seasonal conditions for crops and pastures, generating national food

balance estimates, and more recently identifying outcomes for different livelihood

groups. Their main audiences are governments of affected countries, donors and

humanitarian agencies. (DFID, 2004). However, the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL)

have rainfall patterns that are highly variable temporally and spatially, making the

prediction of pasture and water availability for livestock difficult and unreliable, (Matus

J., 2006). Residents of ASAL of east Africa are exposed to risks associated with the

pastoral production systems which comprise the main economic activities in these areas.

They have highly variable rainfall patterns both temporally and spatially making pasture

and water availability for livestock unpredictable. Some of these risks usually translate


38

into risks of food shortages and human crisis, because it interact with other risks

originating from multiple factors characterizing these areas such as; the relatively poor

infrastructure, communication and information dissemination problems, lack of basic

health and extension services. According to Luseno et al, 2003 poor people in these

regions rarely benefit from the rainfall forecasts produced by the regional centres because

they are often too coarse to be of much use.

Drought early warning systems are expected to help alert communities to potential

disaster in Sudan, where the loss of livelihood capitals particularly human and animal

lives is the most significant impacts of drought (Osman, 2007). DFID (2004) noted the

need for building these early warning systems on the traditional mechanisms, since

community-based actions can sometimes be more effective than other top-down

centralized approaches. Moreover, they can be directly integrated into local response and

risk reduction strategies and could also be coordinated with efforts made by disaster

management authorities such as the Civil Defense and other related agencies. Effective

communication also needs to be established with a focus on reaching a wide range of

stakeholders.

In the past 20 years considerable progress has been made in improving systems for

providing short-term forecasts on extreme weather events, flood surges and food crises

which allow timely action to be taken in the realm of disaster management. Yet there is

also a need for information systems to support longer-term risk assessment and

monitoring, i.e. a system that focus on long term vulnerability and hazards, as a basis for

disaster risk reduction initiatives within a development framework. Overall, it is

important to point out that the early warning and information systems in some of the

regional centres-often with substantial donor assistance-, have relatively been improved

in terms of both information reliability/timeliness and linkages to early response, saving

many lives in disasters. Many gaps related to the accessibility, content, language and

format of information, have been identified and highlighted by a number of stakeholders

in Sudan. (Hamadalla, 2007). (See fig.3 below showing the IRI probability rainfall

forecast for Africa for the period July -August, 2007).

Fig (3)


39

Source: IRI, 2006

It worth mentioning that this forecast (fig 3) which indicates a high probability of above

normal rainfall over all the Sudan, showing a high degree of predictability skill and

turned out to be true for most of Sudan. The country is currently witnessing heavy rainfall

which exceeds the annual averages over many regions (Kordofan, White Nile, Khartoum,

Kassala and Red Sea States) associated with disastrous floods in almost all these areas.

However, inspite of the timely issuance of this forecast and related ones by the National

Met. Office but very little was done regarding:

o The dissemination of forecast information and early warning to targeted

stakeholders (particularly those who are going to be impacted most, e.g. people

who are living in low areas, along the valleys and near the river banks)).

o Protective measures to minimize the impacts e.g. evacuation of high risk areas

and temporary resettlement.


40

o Preparation of a strategic reserve of grains, tents, etc…

The result was a devastating situation and major livelihood a loss, making it evident that

forecast and early warning systems is in real need to be developed effectively in Sudan. The

economic impact also needs to be evaluated and assessed. Moreover, there is need to improve

the preparedness and ability to response in a more timely manner. Many constraints are

identified to have contributed to this, among which is the lack of awareness particularly

among policy makers as to the importance of early warning and preparedness to the

sustainability of people's livelihoods including disaster prevention and food security as well

as to the national development planning process. The national institutions e.g. Meteorological

Authority which is officially responsible for issuing out climatic forecasts, mostly lack

adequate technical capacity due to the quick turn over of the qualified staff to international

and regional centres. In addition to that they have financial constraints, as they are considered

by the Ministry of Finance as commodity and not service provider, so they are expected to

generate their own funds. This has resulted in Met. Office assigning high and sometimes

discouraging prices to the meteorological data and information. Moreover, the responsibility

of early warning is scattered among many different institutions including the Meteorological

Authority, the Civil Defense, the Disaster Reduction Department, Humanitarian Aid

Commission (HAC) and the Strategic Reserves Cooperation. (SRC). In addition to some

specialized units under the umbrella of different United Nations Organizations such as the

UNHCR, WHO, WFP and the other NGOs. The lack of coordination among all the partners

and institutions has negatively impacted information generation, utility, and dissemination.

Moreover, different types of early warning systems are being employed by different

organizations such as:: 1- early warning system (EWS) by WFP for food insecurity-prone

areas 2- FAO EWS for crop production, markets, food security, nutrition and

humanitarian condition. 3- EWS for epidemic-prone diseases by WHO which is

described by Augusto, 2005 as useful for detecting outbreaks and monitoring the number

of consultations required to trigger actions, but not for estimating mortality.

In addition to that, many regional early warning systems exist, examples are:

o IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC),-used to be the Drought

Monitoring Centre-Nairobi. It was initiated as a follow-up of a number of projects

through USAID/REDSO. Main objectives include: improving the technical capacity

of producers and users of climatic information, in order to enhance the input to and


41

use of climate monitoring and forecasting products; developing an improved,

proactive, timely, broad-based system of information and product dissemination and

feedback, at both sub-regional and national scales through national partners; and

expanding the knowledge base within the sub-region in order to facilitate informed

decision making, through a clearer understanding of climatic and climate-related

processes. The centre maintains collaboration with the Meteorological Authority in

Sudan and provides technical support to its staff. Moreover, it issues seasonal rainfall

forecast for the GHA which proved highly reliable, but had also been criticized of not

being informative enough and don't satisfy the specific information needs for a wider

group of stakeholders in the region.

o Desert Locust Component of the Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary

Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases (EMPRES), which aims at strengthening the

locust management capacity of locust-affected countries to minimize the risk that

desert locust plagues can develop. This is sought to be achieved through well-

directed surveys and timely, environmentally sound interventions in order to mitigate

food security concerns. Central regions for its work comprise countries around the

Red Sea. EMPRES provide various forms of support, to improve the survey and early

warning capacity of member countries. A locust information network has been setup

in Sudan. http://www.crc-empres.org

o Most of these centres receive financial and technical support from international

organizations such as USAID, NOAA, IRI, CIDA etc. and so they have a better

technical and financial capacity. Sudan has benefited to some extend from the

training opportunities provided by some of these centres as well as information on

forecast and early warning generated by them. Further on, there is still s good

room for better cooperation between Sudanese national institutions and these

centres. Common shortcomings, however, of some of the regional as well as

national forecast and early warning centres, are that while they establish the

means to generate or acquire large volumes of data, including remote sensing

data, their analysis and interpretation doesn't take into consideration demand side

and the specific informational needs of e.g. local stakeholders and impacted

http://www.crc-empres.org/


42

communities. They are also weak in communicating their findings to these

stakeholders in a useful form that could lead to action

6. Short term relief versus long-term development

Emergency food assistance in Sudan has continued for the past several years, throughout

the conflict years, covering primarily conflict affected population and chronically food

insecure ones in eastern and Central Sudan. Other food aid programmes include the

Protracted Relief and Recovery (PRRO) for refugee operation in eastern Sudan. And the

World Food Program (WFP) Country Programme which mainly concentrated in the

chronically food-insecure and acute water-shortage areas in the north, namely Abyei area,

South Kordofan, North Kordofan, Red Sea and Kassala States – which are subject to

structural constraints and climatic variations that have eroded people's coping

mechanisms and weakened their overall asset base.

The issue of relief versus development has recently become one of the most controversial

issues. Many development practitioners started to question the effectiveness of the

traditional approach followed by relief organizations in their response to risks and

disasters. This is because donors' got used to the conventional approach which is

generally short-term and oriented mainly towards provision of humanitarian assistance.

Many appeals have now been made regarding the need for changing this approach to

adopt a more development focused approach. A study by Abdelatti, (2003) on the Arbaat

area in Red Sea State, indicated that for a long time the short term relief has been

employed as the main program to curb the negative impacts of the reoccurring drought

and famine conditions characterizing the area. He criticized this approach of being a short

term solution that rendered the state heavily dependent on central government support

and foreign aid organizations, making long term policies, including that of combating

drought, of a low priority.

This approach has also been described by the local community as being unsustainable,

undermined their traditional coping capacity and contributed to the creation of relief –

dependent groups (Abdelatti, 2003, Osman, 2006). They indicated that they would prefer

instead an approach that support their local capacities and help them maintain a local

food production system. A different view was expressed by Atkinson (2006), who argued

that it is not food aid that is creating dependency in eastern Sudan, but the failure of the


43

government, the donors and international agencies to promote a sustained and holistic

development process aimed at supporting livelihoods in the long term. Some

organizations and relief agencies attempted to introduce the food for work as a means for

getting people to be more appreciative and less dependent on relief. However, this

approach is also criticized by Harvey and Lind, 2005, who argued that food for work may

itself create dependency because it can distort local labour markets by attracting workers

away from vital activities during the agricultural year. Ethiopia presented a National

Policy on Disaster Prevention and Management with a new approach for tackling

recurrent food emergencies through linking relief resources with Development

interventions (DFID, 2004). In relation to this some of the WFP officials pointed out the

change in the approach of the WFP from a main focus on humanitarian to the

incorporation of rehabilitation and recovery, with the changing political environment-

including the peace agreement. Additionally, the officials stressed the need for food

assistance to be delivered in such a way that supports the resumption and restoration of

livelihoods. And that food aid should be part of a coordinated set of broad sectoral

interventions that address the root causes of food insecurity and other constraints

including health, nutrition and education issues. (see annex 13) for the comparative trend

analysis of WFP assistance 2005/2006. The officials mentioned few examples of the

current WFP interventions, such as:

o Support the provision of basic services (health and education) in the war affected

areas in Southern Sudan.

o Support the development of early warning through provision of training,

statistical models and computer hardware to the staff at the Meteorological

Authority.

Brian D’Silva and Olivia Tecosky (2006) examined the history of food production and

productivity in Sudan in their paper on sub-regional integration. They argued that the key

to national food security is the integration of markets in areas that are producing food

surpluses with other food deficient ones. This is also in line with the conclusion of the

AIACC-AF14 study which points out that having appropriate institutional and policy

framework in place, is key for improving the adaptation and the overall livelihoods of

local communities in disaster-prone areas of Sudan.


44

A recent study by Catley A, et al, 2005 suggest that both governments and donors tend to

fund disaster relief and rehabilitation assistance by reallocating resources from

development programmes. This can be expected to affect the poor disproportionately

through adverse effects on poverty reduction efforts. Catley A, et al, 2005 had also

pointed to the policy and structural divisions present between the relief and development

departments within DFID and other major donors and the incoherence within donors with

various levels of policy disconnects.

MDTF-South (MDTF-S) focuses on rebuilding the Southern states of Sudan and

providing capacity-building support to the newly-formed Government of South Sudan.

As of October 31st, 2006, ten projects have been approved for MDTF-S funding, with an

additional one approved pipeline including: umbrella program for health system, rural

water supply and sanitation services, agriculture and forestry: support services and

livestock & fisheries develop project, all of which could potentially be impacted by

climate change and warrant to be examined in this context.

WFP and the Government of Sudan have launched a five-year Country Programme for

the period 2002-2006 that covers two interlinked activities: activity 1 provides

educational and nutritional support to school children; and activity 2 supports food for

work activities in water harvesting and rehabilitation of educational infrastructure. While

this five year plan particularly the water harvesting activities could contribute to the

adaptive capacity building, but in general terms this plan didn't specifically consider

climate change or variability or attempt to mitigate its potential impacts.

The 2007 Work Plan of the United Nations and partners in Sudan (UN, 2007), integrates

two broad programming components:

o The delivery of humanitarian assistance to vulnerable conflict-affected

populations (including host communities) and the;

o Introduction of such programmes that will enable the timely transition towards a

more sustainable level of national recovery and development.

In addition to that The 2007 Plan has also identified a number of cross-cutting issues, which are

to be integrated into all of the sectoral programmes. They are:


45

� HIV/AIDS

� National Capacity Building

� Environmental Sustainability

� Gender Mainstreaming

However, climate change has not been considered among the cross-cutting issues that

need to be integrated into all the UN sectoral plans. (See annex 14), for Project Summary

by Sector and Assistance Category for National Programmes)

7) Conclusions

Despite all scientific progress in climate scenarios, still many uncertainties surround the

magnitude, pace and character of future climate change at both regional and national

scales. In addition, the limited amount of studies in terms of depth and coverage to Sudan

and the difficulty in drawing out solid conclusions from different climatic scenarios may

constrain the ability to formulate a well- founded policy recommendation, targeting

government and donor organization. However, all these limitations should not hinder the

scientists from communicating the climate change-related information, underlining the

need for immediate actions, based on the precautionary principle that; it would be much

safer and cost effective if planning decisions take into account climate change concerns

now- in the context of current uncertainty- than wait until it is too late.

Precipitation scenarios under future climate change over the Nile Basin still show a

degree of disagreement and inconsistent results regarding potential impact on Nile flow.

However, there is a general agreement that temperature rise will lead to greater loss

through evaporation placing additional stress on water resources regardless of changes in

rainfall.. Such scenario of reduction in the water resources, coupled with economic

development and increases in population, may trigger conflict between the different

countries sharing the basin. It is important that all the regional management plans of the

Nile ecosystem take into consideration this potential scenario to put necessary mitigation

mechanism and avoid future conflicts over water resources.

Climate change is also expected to influence water demand for irrigation and other uses.

A reduction of up to twenty five percent of the Nile water is expected under some. This is


46

expected to have serious implications on irrigated agriculture such as the Gezira irrigation

scheme in central Sudan, and the gerf agriculture in the Northern and Nile states. Taking

into consideration that the irrigated agriculture in Sudan is already facing a number of

problems including poor irrigation and drainage infrastructure, accumulation of sediments

into the canals and salinization of water. Climate change will just be an added stress that

could lead to a situation of high risk to this important sector.

The climate change assessments in Sudan suggest that, under even modest changes in

climate, the country faces significant threats in terms of food security, export crop

production (Gum Arabic), human health and water availability. This is expected to

aggravate the current climate variability and environmental stresses, further undermining

the coping capacity of climate sensitive sectors already suffering from this variability and

associated extremes. This situation demands immediate policy responses addressing

current variability problems, and in so doing also buffer against longer term adverse

climatic change i.e. provide for a win-win- 'no regret options.

Climate change is likely to lead to food deficits in many Sudan neighbouring countries

of east and central Africa, resulting particularly from recurrent drought and crop failure.

This would increase the number of environmental refugees' crossing the boarders and

hence, the need for humanitarian assistance. Moreover, scarce water and food had always

triggered conflicts and civil wars which is one of the main reasons for mass migration

and displacement. (war refugees) -The recent IPCC report highlighted the potential

impacts of internal and across –boarder migration as a response measure to climate –

induced stresses, and its severe social and environmental impacts (IPCC, 2007).

The preliminary findings of the climate-related assessment in Sudan provide a warning

signal to stakeholders and decision makers and give a cause for concern for Sudan’s

security in the face of changing climate. It highlighted the need to address vulnerability

problems with practical solutions and measures, work in close cooperation with relevant

organizations together with the local communities and NGOs to face these future risks;

Policy makers, organizations, and local stakeholders must be partners in the identification


47

and implementation of community-level adaptations as well as in the Sudan’s larger

response to climate change.

The vulnerability and adaptation assessment of Kordofan provided useful data sets on

historical trends as well as projected future climate change (2030 and 2060) which can

inform the long term planning process. Key sectors identified as sensitive to climate change

include water, agriculture and human health. The implications of the projected high variation

of rainfall coupled with warming and the absence of irrigation could exacerbate the exposure

of the whole country to high risks of food insecurity and a prevalence of human diseases.

The assessments have also highlighted the urgent need for adaptive measures in key

economic sectors, and beyond, indicating that the timely assessment of impacts can assist in

the planning and development of appropriate long-term mitigation and adaptation strategies

for the management of natural resources, (HCENR, 2003). This important assessment could

be duplicated in other areas of the country to get a more comprehensive picture on the

vulnerability situation in Sudan (vulnerability map).

Several existing socio-economic and natural resource strategies and plans provide an

indirect framework for adaptation to climate change but due to the complex nature of

climate change, responsive policies need to comprise a combination of various policy

areas. For example, specific policies to address adaptation to adverse impacts of climate

change on important sectors such as freshwater, agriculture and food, human health and

infrastructure. Moreover, to ensure the sustainability of these adaptation policies and

measures, options for addressing climate change impacts should be integrated with other

national and sectoral development policies and work programmes. This would not be an

easy task for Sudan where fragmented and sectoral approach for development is still

dominates, in spite the many calls for integration and mainstreaming. Results from the

few climate –related studies conducted so far have disclosed the urgent need for

including climate change adaptation into the development plans at different levels and

scales .(AIACC-AF14 –see annex 6 for detailed information on the project)

The findings by AIACC study could help influence Sudan’s key decision-makers toward

adopting practical means of adaptation to adverse climatic conditions – mainly drought-


48

and demonstrate the essence of integrating climate adaptation with broader development

policies e.g., through more sustainable rangeland management policies, or through

national water resource policies that actively support localized water management, etc.

Moreover, the lessons learned – can be taken up and applied in other areas of similar

setting within Sudan and Africa, as they have reflected the potential to help improve the

effectiveness of adaptation planning efforts as well as future development work.

One of gaps that have been identified in the V&A assessment under the 1st. National

Communication is that it has focused mainly on future impacts of climate change (2030

and 2060) and didn't cover the current vulnerability of Sudan to climate variability or

the analysis of priority areas for immediate intervention;. However, this have been

effectively dealt with in the AIACC-AF 14 project which focused more on historic

climate records and existing climate scenarios and the use of current climate as a proxy

for climate change. Another gap identified is the lack of clear plan or outreach strategy

for the final report – this resulted in a some-what low media coverage and lack of

interest among different stakeholders or target groups. This was reflected in the lack of

appreciation by the government for environmental issues creating a state of apathy

towards all environmental issues including urgent problems related to drought and

desertification, loss of biodiversity, expanding poverty and conflicts over resources.

Other issues highlighted among the gaps are the lack of adequate coordination and

linkage with other conventions (Biodiversity & desertification See Annex (5) the status

quo of the MEAs in the Sudan and annex 19 on List of climate change-related

initiatives in Sudan). This had consequently led to the inadequate integration of climate

change issues into national development strategies and plans and the insufficient policy

dialogue (see annex 16).

In the past 20 years considerable progress has been made in improving systems for

providing short-term forecasts on extreme weather events, which allow timely action to

be taken in the realm of disaster management. Yet there is still a need for information

systems to support longer-term risk assessment Different types of early warning

systems are being employed by different organizations at regional and sub-regional

levels. However, their contribution to improving the coping capacity is still limited,


49

this was largely attributed to the lack of coordination between them and the local

relevant institutions A situation that have reflected negatively on the generation,

communication , and utility, of early warning information to targeted stakeholders.

Forecast and early warning systems in Sudan still need to be developed effectively.

Moreover, there is need to improve the preparedness and ability to response in a more

timely manner. Many constraints are identified to have contributed to this, among

which is the lack of coordination among national institutions, lack of awareness

particularly among policy makers as to the importance of early warning and

preparedness to the sustainability of people's livelihoods including disaster prevention

and food security as well as to the national development planning process.

The food distribution and post-disaster provision of humanitarian assistance was the

conventional approaches that have been adopted by relief and humanitarian

organizations to curb the negative impacts of climate –related disasters. This approach

has been criticized by many as being a short term unsustainable, undermining the

traditional coping capacity and contributed to the creation of relief –dependent

community. Many appeals have now been made regarding the need for these

organizations (UN, WFP etc.) for changing this approach and adopt a more

development focused approach for tackling recurrent food emergencies through

linking relief resources with development interventions.

Some organizations started to respond to calls for new approaches by developing

assistance plans which shift from a main focus on humanitarian to the incorporation of

rehabilitation and recovery, and restoration of livelihoods. However, the issue of

climate change have rarely been considered in their plans. It is important that they

incorporate climate change concerns in all sectoral interventions aimed at addressing

the root causes of livelihood insecurity and famines.

8) Recommendations


50

The presence of many limitations and uncertainties in climate science should not

discourage the policy makers from taking actions to address urgent adaptation needs of

vulnerable communities and sectors identified in Sudan. Donor organizations as well as

national governments must overcome the bureaucratic distinction between adaptation to

current climate variability and future climate change and must support broad-based

resilience building with no-regret interventions, uniting the development and adaptation

communities in the process.

Driven by the need for interventions with a longer-term recovery and development impacts,

development planners need to explore alternatives to food-based programming for

emergency affected populations – a conventional approach practiced by humanitarian

agencies –A new policy is required for disaster mitigation and for tackling recurrent food

emergencies through linking relief resources with development interventions. Reducing

people’s vulnerability to expected climatic hazards and to increase their coping capacity.

Should e considered as one of the main objectives of development planning.

The strong links between conflicts and climatic stresses is well established in many

studies – therefore it is important that strategies aiming at peace building tackle the root

causes rather than addressing the symptoms. One way to achieve a sustained stability

could be through factoring in climate change implications into conflict resolution and

peace processes.

Wider support of policies and programs aiming at achieving international cooperation on

climate change issues should be encouraged through awareness campaigns targeting

policy makers. Efforts should also be made to create an enabling environment for a more

targeted regional and international cooperation in climate-related transboundary issues

e.g. the increasing pressure on water resources calls for the development of international

cooperative mechanisms to manage shared water resources e.g. the Nile Basin

It is important to integrate climate change into multi-donor planning processes such as

UN Workplan / (UN, 2007), and partners in Sudan MDTF WFP, taking into

consideration that climate change could affect the number and distribution of refugees


51

and IDPs, and the delivery of humanitarian assistance as well as any proposed new

recovery and development programmes

An information dissemination plan needs to be developed to ensure that use is made of

the available information on potential adaptation options that have been identified under

the climate change project & related initiatives (AIACC-AF14 and NAPA). This

information should be used to inform policy and decision makers, as well as for

replication/ up-scaling of successful experiences to other regions of the country. Public

awareness campaigns focusing on current and potential impacts of climate change as well

as possible adaptation responses should be programmed to cover the whole country,

particularly vulnerable communities at the local levels.

More coordination is needed between national and regional organizations in relation to

early warning and disaster risk assessment for effective development and dissemination

of forecast and early warning to improve the preparedness and ability to response in a

timelier manner. There is also a need for undertaking longer term risk assessment to

assist the incorporation of disaster prevention and management in the development plans

rather than simply reacting to offset negative impacts after they occur. It is equally

important to improve the technical capacity of national institutions -producers and users-

of climatic forecasts and early warning information, in order to enhance the output,

uptake, and use of climate forecasting products and developing an improved system of

information and product dissemination and feedback between the national, sub-regional

and regional partners to facilitate informed decision making, through a clearer

understanding of climatic and climate-related processes.

The limited consensus and uncertainty surrounding the potential impacts of climate

change on the Nile Basin underscores the need for undertaking more basin-level research

studies to address the knowledge gap in a coordinated approach among the regional

partners. Moreover, and due to the sensitivity of the shared water issues among the

countries of the basin, it is important to develop an integrated regional management plan

and ensure a high level of awareness to future regional disputes over the resources. .

There is a need for better understanding of potential climate change impacts on water


52

resources before the development of large-scale projects which require large capital

investment, as more and more evidences are accumulating on the potential impact of

climate change on the performance of the existing and planned water/hydro facilities. To

ensure the sustainability of major projects such as new dams or canals it is important to

take into consideration the expected impacts of climate variability and change and

provide for early warning, prediction and mitigation measures. It is also important to

examine the potential change in Nile water flow and its impact on irrigated agricultural

projects in Sudan.

One way to address climate change concerns is to mainstream adaptation into the

development planning, and consider it during the formulation of economic and sectoral

policies and strategies of related institutions - Use could be made of the

recommendations by previous studies such as AIACC-AF14 which have underscored the

role of sustainable management of natural resources in supporting the broad

improvements in livelihood security and household and community capacity to cope with

climate impacts.

Due consideration should be given to addressing the methodology and data gaps

identified by previous assessments and studies, and to develop a plan for undertaking a

capacity building program that can best serve to equip Sudan with required skills to

undertake vulnerability and adaptation assessment using sophisticated modeling and

remote sensing techniques. Special emphasis should be given to these important research

areas on economic implications of climatic impacts as well as and evaluation of

adaptation options in terms of e.g. Cost-effectiveness, applicability and accessibility.

Financial and technical support is needed for human as well as institutional capacity

building. Skills and capacities are also needed to develop fundable proposal that could

attract investments in climate change projects.

It is also important to involve different stakeholders in all efforts and programs aiming at

addressing climate change impacts and adaptation at the different levels. Of particular

importance is the facilitation of NGO participation in national and international climate

change activities, policy forums, education and training, and dissemination of public


53

information. Therefore, to ensure the taking up of practical actions for addressing climate

change related issues, it is important to develop a climate change implementation

strategy, keeping the following issues in mind: Who are the target stakeholders, what are

the best means for approaching them, what measures need to be put in place to ensure

their involvement and adoption? Etc.

There an urgent need to strengthen national consensus for climate change actions through

outreach and institutional building. Effective use should be of the findings of V& A

assessment in placing climate change in the proper context of all these other long and

short term changes, creating greater awareness among different stakeholders and further

expand the capability for quantitative analysis in support of far-reaching national

decision-making issues. Outreach activities should be planned in order to provide for:

access to national and international climate change information, open dialogues and

meetings to help foster a better understanding of climate change; stimulate public

discussion on key issues; and catalyze project development efforts in Sudan. Information

dissemination on national policies, strategies and international cooperation should also be

supported through the maintenance of an internet web site as well as through traditional

channels such as journals, press and other media. The outreach approach should

emphasize the extensive use of information exchanges as an expert tool i.e., internet,

electronic newsletters, expert networks, training courses, roundtables, workshops and

seminars to build technical capacity and public support for the Sudan’s Climate Change

program.

A need for more harmonization of the various existing initiatives and the improvement of the

coordination and linkages with other conventions (Biodiversity & desertification for adequate

integration of climate change issues into national development strategies and plans.


54

9. Annexes Annex (1) Institutions involved in CC Activities:

A number of institutions have actively contributed to the climate change project in Sudan; their

involvement has been through the participation in the National Technical Committee or in the

assessment studies as members of the working groups/study teams. The list of institutions

includes:

Department of Planning & Agriculture Economics (DPAE)

Engineering society (ES)

National Electricity Corporation (NEC)

Institute for Technological Research (ITR)

Forests National Corporation (FNC)

Environment and Natural Resources Research Institute (ENRI)

Institute of Environmental Studies (IES)

Federal Ministry of Industry (FMI)

Department of Range and Pasture (DRP)

Energy Research Institute (ERI)

Ministry of Energy & Mining (MEM)

National Draught & Desertification Unit (NDDU)

NGOs & Private Sector

National State Ministry of Industry

Meteorological Authority (MA)

Department of Statistics & Information (DSI)

Ministry of Investment and International Cooperation (MIIC)

Forestry Research Institute (FRI)

Ministry of Transport (MoT)

Ministry of Communication (MoC)

Petrol & Transport Administration (Khartoum State)

Climate Change Project National Technical Committee (NTC) Members


55

Relevant National experts

Annex (2) Rainfall Sensitivity to Climate Change

Sensitivity of Sudan rainfall to global warming is not yet known since the regional detail of

precipitation changes resulting from the temperature increase are sill poorly modelled by GCMs .

The table below shows the range of scenarios for future rainfall change in Sudan over the next 40

years. Scenarios depend on the cause of recent droughts and the sensitivity of rainfall to global

warming.

Cause of recent rainfall

depletion

Drier Sahel Rainfall change by 2030 AD

due to GHG effect – no

change Sahel

Wetter

Sahel

Natural cycles Stronger+ - +- Weaker +-

Natural climatic

change

- 0 +

Regional

anthropogenic climatic

change *

- - - 0

Global anthropogenic

climatic change

- N/a N/a

Notes:

Much drier - - Drier - No change 0 Wetter + Alternative wet/dry phases +

-

Assumes no reversal of land degradation

(1980s taken as base rainfall level)

In this table four main causes of the recent rainfall depletion are suggested:

an irregular cyclical pattern which would naturally see a return to wetter conditions

a climatic discontinuity due to some (unknown) natural cause, in which a new stable drier

regime is now the norm

a climatic change resulting from regional changes in land surface characteristics, namely land

degradation and deforestation

a climatic change which has been induced by global scale modification of atmospheric

composition through the emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG.


56

The net outcome from the table is a range of scenarios heavily weighted towards either maintenance

of the reduced rainfall yields of recent decades or else a further decline. Only one of the ten

scenarios leads to regenerated rainfall.


57

Annex (3) Methodology for developing scenarios:

The climate scenarios chosen were commonly applied to models of ecosystems, and to a

variety of sectoral impact models designed to quantify the magnitude of the physical

impacts on vulnerable sectors. Possible options to adapt to those future impacts were

identified at the last stage of the assessment. Their use in modeling (see the diagram

below), is an effective tool for the analysis of historical data series that provide valuable

information in validating and verifying the output of (GCM). FCCC/SBI/2000/INF.9).

Top-down and bottom-up approaches to assessing vulnerability and

adaptation. Source: Dessai and Hulme, 2004.

Scenarios can be used for addressing questions regarding the key vulnerabilities and

potential impacts of climate change, with more focus on the magnitude of the impacts of

climate change. However, several constraints have been associated with the use of this

framework including the following weaknesses:

They generate information which has a highly aggregated nature and cannot

reflect local phenomena and trend.

They consider vulnerability as an end-point

They are not well on representing human interactions and local abilities to

adapt.

Show difficulty in comparing indicators and indexes assessing different

temporal and spatial scales if measurement unit are inconsistent.

Mostly limited by the uncertainty inherent in the use of global circulation

models used to drive their scenarios.


58

Their use is limited to impact evaluation and not to the evaluation of

adaptation options.

Nevertheless, -as indicated above- use of scenarios has been useful in terms of providing a base

for the long-term adaptation strategies in which the attribution to climate change becomes

important. One of the recommendation made at the (FCCC/SBSTA/2004/INF.13), was that,

bottom-up approaches should be applied in parallel for adaptation assessment, as these are

currently the only reliable mechanism that can guide actions for preemptive/ anticipatory

adaptation as well as for strengthening adaptive capacity.

Annex 4 Uncertainties associated with the preparation of the national communication

1 Uncertainties associated with data

Data – related uncertainties have been widely identified over the different chapters of the

report including inventory, V&A assessment and the mitigation analysis.

Availability/incompleteness has been raised as a major problem e.g. (a). incomplete

historical record of climate, crop productions, disease incidences, etc. (b)agricultural and

water resource data gaps: Gum yield per tree, relations between soil moisture, ground

water recharge and other factors influencing recharge Agricultural and water resource

data gaps: Gum yield per tree, relations between soil moisture, ground water recharge and

other factors influencing recharge.

Data formatting: most of the available data is not tabulated according to the standard

format which makes it difficult to compare or analyze across sectors.

To address these data gaps several measures are being highlighted as important, mainly; the

integration of climate change data needs into the normal reporting systems for relevant

institutions; the creation and maintenance of a well-designed web-based database to facilitate

access to climate change data. In the cases where data could not be made available due to

complete lack of information e.g. Southern Sudan, use was made of the best estimates of

national experts (expert judgement).

2. Uncertainties associated with use of scenarios

2.1 Socio-economic scenarios: It is already known that there is tremendous uncertainty about

future socio-economic conditions. Whether and how much such key variables as


59

population, income, technology, income distribution, institutions and the environment will

change can have large uncertainties associated with them. In addition, there can be

surprises, such as the emergence of epidemic outbreak that can substantially affect socio-

economic conditions. The report highlighted some of these factors as potential constraints,

indicating also the fact that scenarios for future socio-economic changes and their effects

on the exposure are not well taken into account due to the lack of relevant expertise and

methodological constraints.

Another gap noted in the report is the lack of baseline socio-economic information mainly

due to inadequate consideration of the socio-economic factors in the different sectors.

Consequently, the socio-economic scenarios developed didn't really present “predictions”

of future socio-economic conditions rather; they represent some attempts to explore how

expected changes in key socio-economic variables can affect vulnerability. In other words,

use was made of socio-economic scenarios simply as a tool to identify what socio-

economic variables that were most likely going to increase or decrease the vulnerability to

climate changes.

2.2 Uncertainties associated with climate scenarios:

For climate change issues, there is much uncertainty implicit in the choice of General

Circulation Models (GCMs) which are mathematical representations of atmosphere, ocean,

ice cap, and land surface processes based on physical laws and empirical relations (UNEP,

1998), and greenhouse gas forcing scenarios; an uncertainty further compounded by the

additional complications introduced by downscaling. According to ( Hewitson, 2003) , this

would exacerbates the uncertainty associated with any derived climate change scenario and

reduces the value of any impact assessment intended for developing policy and adaptation

strategies. In this regard and according to (UNFCCC, 2004)), it was known that some model

simulations of the current and future climates were found to be quite coarse or inappropriate,

and GCM outputs used were unable to translate how global warming will affect changes in

temperature and precipitation at the national and regional level (see Fig (10) Yon uncertainty

explosion, adapted from Roger, 2002).


60

Figure (10) Uncertainty explosion –(adapted from Roger, 2002).

3

The current WMO normal period is 1961-1990 was used to represent the baseline climate

scenario. This period is thought to best define current climate because of its being recent and of

sufficient length. One problem with the use of the 1961-1990 periods, however, is that the

1980s were, globally, the warmest decade this century (Jones et al., 1994). Therefore, using

1961-1990 as a base period could introduce a warming trend into the baseline, which could bias

the results of some impact assessments. This has also been the observed case in Sudan, where

the 1980s was the period marked by anomalous low rainfall and drought.

3. Uncertainties associated with the use of impact models

There is also a degree of uncertainty associated with climate model products and impact

assessment methods. However, the question how these uncertainties interact in an assessment

model received less attention in the FNC. It is known that an improved understanding of the

"cascade of uncertainties" provides essential feedback to guide the technical evolution of

models and assessment methods associated with climate projections and impact scenarios.

Knowledge of uncertainties is also critical in establishing national and international strategies

for mitigation and adaptation to future climate variability and change

Uncertainty explosion

Global climate

sensitivity

Emission

scenarios

Regional

variability

Biophysical

impacts

Socio-economic

impacts


61

Annex (5) the status quo of the MEA in the Sudan

Title Status Implementing

Institution

1.

London

Convention 1933

Ratified in

1935

Ministry of

Interior

2. Rome Convention

on the Protection

of Plants

Ratified in

1971

Min. of Agric. &

Forests

3. African Conv. On

the Cons. Of

Nature & Nat.

Resources

Ratified in

1973

Min. of Agric. &

Forests

4. CITES 1973 Ratified in

1982

Min. of Interior

5. Regional Conv.

For the Cons. Of

the Red Sea &

Gulf of Eden

Environment

Ratified in

1985

HCENR

6. UNC on the Law

of Seas

Ratified in

1985

HCENR

7. UNFCCC Ratified in

1993

HCENR

8. UNCBD 1992 Ratified in

1995

HCENR

9. UNCDD 1994 Ratified in

1995

Min. of Agric. &

Forests

10. Biosafety

Protocol

Ratified in

1995

HCENR

11. Persistent Organic

Pollutants (POPs)

Ratified HCENR

12. Basel Convention Ratified in

2002

HCENR & Min.

of Agric. &

Forests

13. Ramsar

Convention

Ratified Wildlife

Research and the

HCENR

14. WTO Under

Ratification

15. Biosafety

Protocol

Ratified HCENR


62

Annex (6) AIACC-AF14 project- Environmental Strategies to Improve community's

Adaptation to Climate variability and change- Lessons for East and North Africa

The AF-14 project was motivated by the observation that certain community-based development

activities serve to build coping and adaptive capacity in the face of climate-related shocks. In

countries like Sudan, where many communities currently lack the capacity to effectively cope

with drought, measures such as these can serve to build coping and adaptive capacity and can

play a role in emerging climate change adaptation strategies. Indeed, such measures are essential

for closing the current deficit in climate coping capacity and providing communities the basis

upon which to adapt to climate change. But if, in its adaptation planning process, a country like

Sudan wished to prioritize adaptation for certain communities highly vulnerable to drought

impacts, it would face the challenge of determining which specific measures to foster. What

works at the community scale, in what settings, under what conditions? The methods designed

and adapted by the AF-14 project aimed to respond to this challenge. The project explored the

hypothesis that a simple set of project impact assessment tools – in this case, structured around

the sustainable livelihoods (SL) framework – can help to fill the practical and conceptual gap

that exists between local vulnerability to climate impacts and national adaptation assessment and

decision-making processes. The project explored this hypothesis by employing the SL

framework to assess the impact of community-based development activities on community

coping capacity. The project developed and adapted existing project impact assessment

methods, and applied these in three communities in which efforts had been undertaken to

increase the capacity of households to cope with drought. In participation with the communities,

indicators of household coping capacity were developed and knowledge elicitation methods were

used to explore the specific nature of this change. The results point to suites of measures that

have clear beneficial impact and can be employed in Sudan for building the capacity to cope with

current climate variability, and by extension, to adapt to climate change. Of equal value and

broader relevance, the success of this community-based assessment process suggests that the

methods used, and others like them, have clear applications within the larger vulnerability and

adaptation assessment process.

The Sudan FNC has outlined key vulnerabilities as well, albeit more in sectoral than human

terms. Certain studies anticipate that climate variability and change will have overwhelming

impacts on agriculture, the predominant livelihood system in the three case studies, and

consequently on food security (Case study reports AF14, 2003). The lack of water, in association


63

with high temperatures (up to 45° C at certain periods of the year), is the most limiting factors

for agricultural productivity, according to such studies.

In light of the rich literature and regrettably current experience of Sudan’s vulnerability to

drought, the AF-14 project sought not to explore impacts and vulnerability in any depth, but to

simply recap what is known and to focus instead on exploring drought coping capacity and

resilience, with the aim of identifying practical, effective ways of building both current drought

resilience and future adaptive capacity.

Since the AF-14 project used past and current vulnerability to climate variability as a proxy for

future vulnerability under climate change, historical records and literature survey were conducted

in order to see the impacts and vulnerability in a historic context. Within this framework of

understanding, the project could then use community’s coping and adaptive capacity in the face

of current variability and extremes as a proxy for its level of coping and adaptive capacity under

climate change. A growing number of sources suggest that the degree to which a sector,

community, or system is adapted to today’s climate extremes and variability can serve as an

indicator of how resilient that system is likely to be to future climate change conditions (see e.g.,

Elasha et al 2003). The AF-14 project is based on this approach, and on the premise that

numerous adaptation lessons are to be gleaned from current experience.


64

Annex (7), mean annual rainfall, pattern, seasonal variability and trends in 2000

(Source: Metrological Authority)


65

Annex (8) Sudan Humanitarian activities 2004- Source: UN Department of peace keeping

operation, 2003


66

Annex (9) detailed map of Sudan - Source: UN Department of peace keeping operation,

2004


67

Annex (10) Refugees and IDPs in Africa (UNHCR, 2005)


68

Annex (11) Land cover map of Africa (source: Journal of Biogeography, 2004)


69

Annex (12) People contacted

Institute Name Address

World Food Program

(WFP)

1. Mr. Abdallah El Shiekh

2. Mohamed Satti

VAM assistant Program Officer/

Khartoum office

Tel: +249912179897

Program \officer

Monitoring and Evaluation Unit

e-mail [email protected]

United Nations

Development Program

(UNDP)

3. Hanan Abdalla Mutwakil Senior Program Officer

GEF National Coordinator


Khatoum Office

Institute of

Environmental Studies

Hana Hamadalla Mohamed Senior Researcher – PI research on the

Use of Rainfall Forecast for Improving

the Coping Capacity of Local

Communities in Kordofan State


mailto:[email protected]




70

Annex (13) Comparative trend analysis of WFP assistance 2005/2006

Source: adapted from WFP, 2006 Sudan Annual Needs Assessment/ Food Security Report

Region 2005 versus 2006 Positive factors Risk factors

Darfur Fluid- partial

improvement

International presence/visibility

Substantial humanitarian

assistance

Better climatic conditions

Relatively better cereal

production

Further escalation in the conflict

Decline in funds for humanitarian

assistance

Risk of cross-boarder conflicts

Lower cereal harvest

Further curtailment of access /mobility

Potential increase in camp based

population

East improving Better agricultural production

Stable livestock prices and

stocks

Increased unskilled labour wage

rates

Chronic food insecurity due to serious

structural failure- Red Sea State

Limited livelihood options for IDPs and

weak service infrastructure

Politically charged and volatile conditions

in Hoomesh Koreib

Potential refugee influx due due to

tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia

Decline in urban labour employment

opportunities due to mechanization-Port

Sudan

- Higher consumer prices due to

inflammatory effect

South improving Signing of CPA and formation

of GoNU and GoSS

Increased economic

opportunities with establishment

of government .institutions

Re-establishment of urban-rural

linkages with the opening of the

former garrison towns

Improved security conditions

Relatively high agric. Production

Newly opened roads – trade

opportunities

Improved access to commodities

and services

Delays in implementation of the peace

agreement –no peace dividend


peace agreement

Lack of infrastructure- particularly

transport

High transaction costs for trade from

surplus to deficit areas

Localized crop failures in Northern Bahr-

el Ghazal and Eastern Equatorial

Potentially increased Lord Resistance

Army (LRA) activities

The three

areas

improving Good agric. Production

Improved security condition

Increased land under cultivation

Newly opened roads – trade

opportunities

Improved access to commodities

and services


peace agreement

Potential conflict associated with

delimitation of boarders and right issues-

nomadic and sedentary population groups


71

Annex ( 14) UNDP project summary by sector and assistance category for national

program


72

Annex 15. Summary of the Sudan’s First National Communications Report

.

1 Background

Recognizing the importance of addressing climate change and the need to integrate its

environmental and development objectives, Sudan signed the Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC) in November 1993 and ratified it on March 1994. Pursuant

to Articles 4.1 and 12.1 all Parties, both industrialised and developing, are obliged to

communicate to the Conference of the Parties in the form of national communications,

the following elements of information: an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions by

sources and removals by sinks, a general description of steps taken or envisaged to

implement the UNFCCC, and any other information considered relevant to the

achievement of the objective of the Convention. In 1997, the Climate Change Project

was launched to enable Sudan’s response to the UNFCCC. It was funded by GEF,

executed by the National Execution Management Support Unit (NEXMSU) and

implemented by the Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources (HCENR)

with technical assistance from the Stockholm Environmental Institute-Boston (SEI_B). It

was agreed by all the project partners that climate change is an important global problem

and that Sudan must do its part to address it.

2 Objectives of the Sudan's NC

While the project has a long term objective of fostering human resource development in

order to effectively deal with climate change and address its global and national

consequences and implications., it was also envisioned to address a number of

immediate Objectives including:

Improving Sudanese capacity to comply with the UNFCCC;

Preparing and institutionalizing the national communication reports and; creating

national teams and institutional structures capable of addressing climate change-

related issues.

The strategies for achieving the above -mentioned objectives included inter alia; building

human and institutional capacities within the relevant institutes and giving more emphasis to

issues that are perceived as having environmental importance as well as development

priorities. In addition to that, the project undertook several activities ranging from general

workshops and awareness campaigns to specialized training and studies involving relevant


73

stakeholders including policy makers in the government and Non-government organizations

and partner institutions (see annex 1).9

The specialized training covered different areas of climate change related issues such as;

inventory of green houses from different sources and sinks using standard IPCC

methodology; vulnerability & adaptation assessment and mitigation analysis

The Sudan’s 1st. National Communication has been prepared with the aim of building

Sudanese's capacity in order to meet international obligations under the Framework

Convention, and to actively reach out and become a key regional player in efforts for

reducing the impacts of climate change and developing adaptation capacities, as well as

contributing to reduction of GHS emissions through e.g. improvement in sequestering carbon

in sinks. It is also hoped that the report can provide guidance on issues related to gaps and

priorities in climate change research in such a way to attract further support from donors to

Sudan for meeting its environmental goals. The formats of the national communications are

standardized across countries party to the UNFCCC to facilitate synthesis and comparison

between them.

The main ideas realized in the National Implementation Strategy (chapter 5 of the NC),

focused on the need for assisting Sudan in making a real contribution to the efforts by

international communities to addressing the climate change concerns through:

The strengthening of institutions and developing of policies necessary to enable Sudan's

response to international commitments on global climate change, by supporting and

expanding the current administrative structure within the HCENR, establish a networking

mechanisms to coordinate a national climate change program and facilitate the flow of

information between relevant sectors and organizations;

Assess the vulnerability of different sectors to the impacts of climate change, investigate

and assess adaptation capacities and propose actions.

Contribute to international community efforts to reduce GHG emissions by creating

awareness at different levels and encourage investments in and financing for

environmental technologies and mitigation measures, especially in renewable energy,

energy efficiency and forestry management; and

9 A list of institutions is annexed to this report


74

Increase the involvement of non-governmental actors (e.g., civil society and private

sector) in the development and implementation of Sudan’s climate change strategies and

plans.

The production of the First National Communication (FNC) marked the completion of

the Climate Change Enabling Project. The report was then presented in a national

workshop aiming at achieving the following objectives:

Reviewing and discussing of the report (Sudan’s First National Communication)

by all relevant national consultants/ experts and other stakeholders.

Providing a platform for exploring and understanding the role of national

communications in the current and future development of the UNFCCC.

Assisting in elaborating essential requirements and institutional framework for

undertaking the activities necessary for preparing future national communication

The workshop concluded that the Sudan’s government should move forward on

the issue of developing a national implementation strategy on climate change,

prioritize the adaptation options for vulnerable sectors and propose actions to

mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and improve & maintain carbon sinks.

To meet these objectives, strategic support is needed that focuses on increasing national

capacity for project development to improve adaptation capacities increase human

resilience to climate change and promoting promising investments in energy efficient

technologies and other measures to reduce GHG emissions.

It is also important that all targeted efforts should build upon existing activities avoiding

duplications and giving more room for identifying opportunities for viable investments in

funding appropriate adaptation options and contribute to sustainable development. Over

time, the intent is for Sudan to identify viable investments in all relevant sectors and

geographic areas

3 Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report

(TAR) defines climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment as the

practice of identifying and evaluating the detrimental and beneficial consequences of

climate change on natural and human systems, and identifying and evaluating options for

adapting to climate change.


75

In the face of climate change, an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation options is a

critical component of Sudan’s response to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC).The assessment analyzed consequences for Sudan if certain

climate changes occur. It represented the first attempt to find the relation between the

observed impacts on natural and human systems and past and current climate variability,

as well as exploring the potential impacts of future climate change on the different sectors

of the region. (Fig 7) from the IPCC -3rd

.Assessment report- 2001, reflects the lack of

information on vulnerability in Sudan compared to other African countries up to the time

when the first V&A assessment was conducted.

Fig (7) Climate Change vulnerability in Africa (IPCC, 2001)

The purpose of V&A assessment was to illuminate the potential impacts of climate

change on critically important sectors, specifically it aimed at uncovering the types of

challenges that are likely be faced in the not too long future with regard to food security,

water resources and human health. Other longer term objectives included; the

identification of possible adaptive responses for reducing adverse effects, highlight the

linkages between the impacts on different natural resources sectors and other

environmental, socio-economic consequences of climate change.

3.1 Study Area

The assessment focused on Kordofan States as the major region depending mainly on rainfed

agriculture, with the traditional farmers and pastoralists being the most vulnerable and the least

resilient groups to climate-related variability and shocks. The vulnerability of Kordofan to

climate change was illustrated mainly using climate scenario analyses. Two climate change


76

projections were considered, one with the expected climate change likely to take place by the

year 2030 and the other which is likely to occur by the year 2060. The results of the climate and

socio-economic scenarios indicated that the Kordofan region’s being part of African Sahelian

region characterized by high aridity is already vulnerable to natural climate variability e.g. erratic

rainfall and frequent dust storms (see Annex 10 - A new land-cover map of Africa for the year

2000)

However, the region vulnerability is expected to get higher due to a high degree of

projected climatic and socio-economic stresses in addition to other multiple factors, such

as poor infrastructure, weak adaptive capacity and the lack of awareness regarding

effective response measures

The vulnerability and adaptation assessment covered the following issues:

1. Development.of climate and socio-economic scenario

2. Using the developed scenarios to assess the V&A of :

agriculture and forestry (sorghum, millet and gum arabic)

Water resources. (soil moisture)

.Human health (malaria)

3.2 Use of Scenarios

A top-down approach known as the “standard approach” is based on climate

scenarios derived from general circulation models (GCMs), as well as on

some consideration of socio-economic scenarios ( see annex 3 on

methodology for developing scenarios).

Projections of rainfall under future climate change conditions also shows sharp

deviations from baseline expectations. Results from some of the models show average

rainfall decreases of about 6 mm/month during the rainy season. This is illustrated in

the two graphs (fig 9 a and b) below for change in rainfall and temperature in 2060

compared to a baseline, and using observations derived from five meteorological

stations.

3.3 V&A Assessment of agricultural and forestry Production

As mentioned earlier the assessment employed conventional and modern assessment

techniques including scenario generation (socio-economic and climate scenarios) and

impacts models. Moreover and whenever is feasible it employed the experts' judgment.

The assessment of agricultural and forestry production (sorghum, millet, and gum arabic


77

production), followed the impact framework which focused on assessing long-term risks

from climate change, impacts looking into the future (2030 and 2060, in our case), and

are often driven by scenarios of climate change. Baseline yield scenarios were established

against which predicted crop and gum yield projections were measured, (representing

business as usual i.e. without climatic changes). Then climate change scenarios were

developed to test the sensitivity of Kordofan’s agro climatic zones, and thus crop yield

and gum arabic production, to changes in CO2 levels. This comparison is intended to help

establish the sector’s degree of sensitivity and level of vulnerability. Using FAO Impact

Model, the simulation tested several GCM scenarios. The results revealed that, drought

would become more pronounced with a number of impacts on livelihood systems

projected through this work are strikingly negative, suggesting a significant decrease in

Kordofan’s agricultural productivity and a reduction in its primary cash crop (sorghum

and millet, yields from baseline (1980) levels in all seasons and areas, with sorghum, as

the most vulnerable crop under a changed climate. It was also noted that, a rise in

temperature associated with increased water stress would lower gum Arabic production

significantly. The following specific impacts are recorded:

A southward shift in moist agro climatic zones is seen, indicating a shrinking area of

crop production.

Food crop yield for the selected stations showed a decline from baseline yield of

between 13% and 82% for sorghum and between 20% and 76% for millet. The

exception was Rashad station, where predicted crop yields were roughly equivalent to

baseline. Crop yield in the southern part of the region (Kadugli) remained close to

historic levels.

Of the three exposure units, sorghum is most

heavily affected.

A shift of the Gum Arabic belt (Acacia Senegal)

southward is already been detected and is

projected to increase with declining rainfall. This

will be accompanied by a reduction in Gum arabic

yield, region-wide, between 25% and 30%. (see

fig 8) Shifting of Gum Arabic belt

Fig (7) southward shifting of the Gum

Arabic belt (Source: 1st.National

communication, 2003)


78

The most heavily impacted areas for both crops are the northern (El Obeid station),

western (En Nahud) and Southwestern (Babanusa) parts of the region. Figure (9a&

b) shows the crop yield of sorghum in El Obeid and En Nahud stations, indicating a

clear decline of sorghum yield in the milestone years.

Figure (9a& b) the crop yield of sorghum in El Obeid and EnNahud

(Source: 1st.National communication, 2003)

3.4 Water resources:

Water resources in Kordofan State are highly sensitive to climate variation and

fluctuating rainfall. To a large extent, the population of Kordofan is dependent on rainfall

to provide water for crops, livestock, and household use. Surface water is a necessary

supplement to groundwater use in the region. Since Kordofan does not have permanent

stream flow, surface water availability is entirely dependent on rainfall, which is sharply

constrained by the duration and variability of the rainy season (generally May through

October). During the last two decades, Western Sudan (Kordofan and Darfur States) has

witnessed severe drought that has caused loss of human life, crop failure, and

considerable loss of livestock. The meteorological data had clearly indicated that recent

drought cycles are drier, last longer, cover larger areas, and have shorter non-drought

intervals (Sudan Meteorological Authority). For these reasons, water resources in

Kordofan are considered a priority, and an essential component of the vulnerability and

adaptation assessment.

The water assessment indicated that:

En Nahud

0

200

400

600

1988 2030 2060

Sorgu

m Yie

ld(Kg

/ha)

HADCM2

BMRC

GFDL

El Obeid

1988 2030 2060

Sorgu

m Yie

ld(kg

/ha)

HADCM2

BMRC

GFDL


79

Soil moisture declines under future climate change conditions.

The water deficit in Kordofan is predicted to worsen as a result of climate change in

milestone years 2030 and 2060, as compared to the historical baseline (1961-1990).

Interestingly, the decline in rainfall is only part of the story; the effect of rising

temperatures and increased Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET) may have the most

significant impact.

Acute water stress could be experienced in the year 2060. . Of particular note, the results

suggest that in the northern parts of the region the soil moisture deficit could be

equivalent to the water holding capacity of the soil in 2060 - a situation of extreme water

stress.

The study also concluded that in order to maintain the same water consumption ratio in

2060 as today, 1.9 additional bcm per year will need to be harvested from rainfall or

seasonal stream-flow in 2060, for an annual total of 3.7 bcm.

3.5 Human health

As the most significant public health concern in Sudan, Malaria was selected as the

exposure unit for V&A Assessment. However, the assessment of malaria incidence is

constrained by a lack of reliable epidemiological data. Historic records of disease

incidence are incomplete, making it impossible to create a reliable picture of baseline

(non-climate change) prevalence of malaria. Thus, it is not possible to compare baseline

disease incidence against disease incidence projected in a climate change scenario.

To overcome data limitations and facilitate an impact assessment, transmission potential

(TP) - as opposed to actual numbers of cases of malaria – was taken as the focus of the

analysis. Higher TP in a given area indicates a higher potential for malaria outbreak.

These results, generated by the different models, show that TP in 2060 is more than

double the baseline TP, suggesting a doubling of the potential for malaria outbreak during

the months of December and January. The risk in 2030 is only slightly less.

The assessment concluded that the projected increase in transmission potential, suggests

that the changes in temperature and precipitation anticipated under climate change could

adversely alter the current distribution and intensity of malaria incidence in Sudan.

Based on such potential impacts, the question of climate change impact on malaria - and

the most suitable adaptation options - warrants far greater investigation. Important areas

for subsequent research will be the adverse economic impacts of malaria in Sudan (under


80

both baseline and climate change scenarios), as well as the combined effects of climate

and socioeconomic factors on malaria incidence.

4. Future perspectives/ what is needed to improve the utility of FNC?

According to a report by the United Nations Frame Work Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC, 2000) The guidelines for the preparation of initial national communications

by Parties not included in Annex I to the UNFCCC, contained in the annex to decision

10/CP.2, do not provide an adequate framework for the assessment of climate change

impacts and identification of adaptation options and strategies. Moreover, they don't

provide sufficient information on implementing adaptation measures and/or response

strategies and on how these measures and/or strategies should be integrated into the

national planning process. These gaps need to be considered in any future climate change

impacts assessments.

The UNFCCC report also highlighted the fact that; most vulnerability and adaptation

assessments and studies in Africa including Sudan of course were centred on a single

sector, such as agriculture, health and/or water resources. Meanwhile, the UNFCCC

report emphasized the need to pursue a cross-sectoral and multi-sectoral approach to

impact assessments in subsequent vulnerability and adaptation studies. This should also

be considered in future assessments.

The NC should provide a clear response strategy to all climate change related concerns.

To provide for this, it should contain some key elements – which currently are not well

covered, including the information on:

Development priorities in Sudan,: this will enable climate change experts identify

where to focus their efforts that aim at strengthening the linkages between climate

change issues and other development plans and hence put climate change among

the priority areas:

Imitational arrangements: A clear plan on the organizational setup as well as the

legal instruments (regulation, laws) required to carry out climate change related

activities. This will ensure a real commitment and clear institutional

responsibilities by different actors involved.


81

Annex (16) Overview of climate-related initiatives (See table 4 for a complete list of related

initiatives)

A number of projects that either focus mainly on climate change or involving climate related

activities are implemented in Sudan. The most important in terms of having direct links with the

NC are:

1 AIACC-AF14

The V&A assessment conducted as part of the FNC didn’t include the potential adaptation

measures that can potentially reduce the impacts to current and future changes. This

information is essential for effective communication of actions necessary to reduce potential

impacts, to the public and decision-makers in order to enable the integration of adaptation

aspects in the planning process. Hence to fill the gaps and shortcomings of the vulnerability

and adaptation assessment conducted in the above enabling activities, a four-year project has

been conducted as part of the "Global Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate

Change (AIACC)" through GEF/UNEP. This project aims at enhancing the scientific and

technical information; assessing the impact of climate change and designing cost-effective

response measures which are needed to formulate national policy options. The results

generated by AIACC-AF14 project is expected to contribute to the national implementation

strategy of the Sudan’s 1st National Communication to the UNFCCC, as well as the

provision of practical lessons for adaptation that can contribute to the Sudan’s National

Adaptation Action plan (NAPA).

.2 Sudan National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA)

A UNDP/GEF Project, entitled National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA),

established by the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC) to assist the least developed countries (LDCs) in assessing

and communicating their most urgent adaptation needs.

Sudan is going to use the NAPA process to produce a set of adaptation projects that

address its highest priorities and to propose for international support in the face of climate

change, and the urgent need for adaptation. The NAPA activities included the examining

of existing practices of communities to find and document proven measures that are

yielding benefits today and could act as viable adaptation options under future climate

change. It employed a consultative process to develop criteria and evaluation tools to


82

identify adaptations that respond to urgent national needs and to prioritize adaptations.

Moreover, policies and institutional processes have been identified and analyzed to allow

for the identification of barriers and opportunities to sustainable livelihood. These and

other related findings can be taken into consideration when conducting the other NC

activities and will assist in the Integration of climate change concerns into national

development plans.(HCENR, 2007)

3. Regional Initiatives

A number of regional initiatives have been initiated to address climate-change related

concerns of Africa example:

Climate for Development in Africa, (ClimDev Africa): A new programme, represents

an important new initiative that has now been endorsed by the Joint Secretariat that

represents a common platform for three continental institutions: the African Union

Commission, the African Development Bank, and ECA. Additional partners include

GCOS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the United Kingdom’s Department

for International Development. The ClimDev Africa covers a broad spectrum of climate-

related needs representing an end-to-end programme that will address not only climate

observing needs but also development of improved climate services, climate risk

management, and policy needs, all with a view to mainstreaming climate considerations

into development.

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET): USAID supports activities to

help developing countries lessen their vulnerability and adapt to climate variability and

change. These activities are intended to build more resilience into economic sectors that

may be affected by climatic stresses, including agriculture, water, and key livelihood

sectors in coastal areas. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

operates in numerous countries in Africa. The program provides decision-makers with

information to respond effectively to drought and famine threats by analyzing remote-

sensing data and ground-based meteorological, crop and rangeland observations to

identify early indications of potential famine.

Linking Climate Adaptation network (LCA) is an effort to help communities,

policymakers, practitioners and academicians share knowledge on climate change

adaptation and is funded by DFID. The first phase of the project (May 2004 – June 2005)


83

identified the role of funding and policy mechanisms in supporting successful

community-led adaptation. It also identified longer-term research priorities needed to

support community led adaptation in the future.

Climate Change Adaptation Support Programme for Action-Research and

Capacity Development in Africa (CCAA) programme: Currently, the International

Development Research Council (IDRC), Canada, is partnering with the Department for

International Development (DFID) in the UK to fund a five-year, $65 million CAD

Climate Change Adaptation Support Programme for Action-Research and Capacity

Development in Africa (CCAA). Its aim is to support African countries in their efforts to

address vulnerability, particularly of the poor, to climate change. Building on current

activities and experience, the CCAA programme will strengthen efforts to establish and

maintain a skilled body of expertise in Africa to support efforts to cope with climate

variability and change with a focus on the poor.

Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC): AIACC was

developed in collaboration with the UNEP/WMO and IPCC and funded by the GEF to

advance scientific understanding of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options

in developing countries. By funding collaborative research, training and technical

support, AIACC aimed to enhance the scientific capacity of developing countries to

assess climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations, and generate and communicate

information useful for adaptation planning and actions (AIACC-AF14 Sudan project).

NAPA Comparative study: This study documents lessons learned by the NAPA teams

in Eastern and Southern Africa.. It is a contribution to several efforts on reviewing

experience in climate adaptation, commissioned specifically by the European Capacity

Building Initiative with funding from GTZ and other donors. The aim of the study and of

the ECBI Policy Analysis Programme, is to build analytic capacity through collaboration

with between developing country professionals and European experts. The purpose of

this NAPA review/comparison is to initiate a learning process and extract lessons from

the NAPAs, through interactive mechanisms of discussions and open dialogues with

African NAPA teams and stakeholders. ( for information see)10

10 Elasha, Balgis Osman and Downing, T.E. 2007. Lessons Learned in Preparing National Adaptation

Programmes of Action in Eastern and Southern Africa. SEI Oxford working paper. Oxford


84

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91


92

Annex (18) Table (3) technical gaps in the First National Communication Mitigation analysis GHG inventory Vulnerability and Adaptation

Assessment

Technical

gaps Data availability, reliability and computability

Incomplete

Not in the detailed format required by the

climate studies

Not considered across sectors

Problem of accessibility and data

exchange

Lack of adequate capacity to process and

manage data

Question of reliability

Data availability, reliability

and computability

Emission factors & other

default values used in GHG

inventory Incomplete

records

Not in the detailed format

required by the climate

studies

Not consistent across sectors

Problem of accessibility and

data exchange

Data availability, reliability and computability

Incomplete

Not in the detailed format required by the climate

studies

Not considered across sectors

Problem of accessibility and data exchange

There is no adequate capacity to process and manage

data

Regional data for comparability is not easily found if

not at all ( e.g. data on socio-economic scenario)

Question of reliability

Data-related

Inadequate knowledge of long-term

projection and scenario development

(business as usual, socioeconomic

scenario elements and driving forces

and Variable considered ).

Calculations and reporting of

uncertainties related to GHG

estimates Default values (

emission factors, activity data)

Uncertainty in emission

estimates (How to manage

and minimize its effect).

Limited knowledge regarding climate scenarios

(selection of GCMs and downscaling of outputs..

etc)

Impact models ( availability and technical know-

how

Inadequate knowledge on different types and

uses of impact models which is essential for

V&A assessment.

Selection and testing of GCMs using

MAGICC/SCGEN.

Downscaling methods for GCMs outputs.

Projection of socio-economic and environment

factors (selection of socio-economic indicators,

modeling tools)

Methodological

Capacities created by the Climate Change

Project within the relevant sectors

considered insufficient in relation to

modeling and use of computer –model (

There is no adequate

capacity to process and

manage data Available

models & software required

Capacities created by the Climate Change Project

within the relevant sectors considered

insufficient in relation to modeling and use of

computer –model ( impact, projection)

Capacity and

skills


93

impact, projection)

Lack of relevant technical expertise (

projection, impact assessment, modeling)

Inadequate facilities within the relevant

institution.

Sustainability issue, turnover of staff,

limited number of trained personnel from

within the climate related sectors

more training and

understanding

Inadequate facilities within

the relevant institution.

Sustainability issue, turnover

of staff, limited number of

trained personnel from

within the climate related

sectors

Lack of relevant technical expertise ( projection,

impact assessment, modeling)

Inadequate facilities within the relevant

institution.

Sustainability issue, turnover of staff, limited

number of trained personnel from within the

climate related sectors

Sustainability issue, turnover of staff,

limited number of trained personnel from

within the climate related sectors

Sustainability issue, turnover

of staff, limited number of

trained personnel from

within the climate related

sectors

Adaptation assessment:

Selection ( identification and screening)

Assessment (cost effectiveness, applicability)

Resources &time limitations

Sustainability issue, turnover of staff, limited

number of trained personnel from within the

climate related sectors

Others


94

Annex (19) Table (4) List of climate change-related initiatives in Sudan

Project Focus Objectives Implementing agency Funding

agency

Geographical

coverage

Community Based Rangeland

Rehabilitation for Carbon

Sequestration (1994-2000)

Climate Change/

Mitigation

was to implement a simple model of

community-based natural resource

management to prevent over-

exploitation and degradation, of

marginal lands and rehabilitate

rangelands for the purpose of carbon

sequestration. It also sought to

encourage biodiversity preservation,

reduction of dust storms, and reduction

of the risks of production failure in this

drought-prone area by providing

alternatives for sustainable production

State Ministry of Agriculture

+ committees from Local

communities

UNDP/GEF Gereigikh Rural

Council -Bara

province/ North

Kordofan State of

Western Sudan

Climate Change Enabling Project

(Capacity Building to Enable the

Sudan’s Response and

Communication to the UNFCCC)

1998-2002

Climate Change/

Capacity

development

Fostering human resource development

in order to effectively deal with climate

change and address its global and

national consequences and implications.

Climate Change Unit at the

HCENR and SEI-Boston

UNDP/GEF National project-

Sudan

Expedited Financing of Climate

Change Enabling Activities (Phase

II) 2002-2003

Climate Change/

capacity building additional financing for capacity

building in priority areas

Change Unit at the HCENR

and SEI-Boston

UNDP/GEF National- Sudan

AIACC-AF14 (Environmental

Strategies to increase Human

Resilience to Climate Change, lessons

for Eastern and North Africa)- 2002-

2006

Climate change/

adaptation

To demonstrate a method for generating

information on effective resilience-

building activities, and raise the profile

of such activities within the climate

adaptation and broader development

communities.



GEF, CIDA,

USEPA-

Executed by

UNEP,

START,

TWAS &

IPCC

Barrier Removal to Secure PV

Market Penetration in Semi-Urban

Sudan 2001-2005

Climate Change/

Mitigation and

adaptation

Promoting the use of alternative

energies mainly solar energy in semi-

urban areas in Sudan

Ministry of Energy and

Mining

UNDP/GEF Gedarif State in

Eastern Sudan and

Kordofan in Western

Sudan

National Adaptation Programme of

Action (NAPA)- 2005-2007

Climate Change/

adaptation

Serve as a simplified and direct channel

of communication for information



UNDP/GEF National- Sudan


95

related to the urgent and immediate

adaptation needs of the Sudan.

National Capacity Self-Assessment

(NCSA) for Global Environment

Management- 2003-2007

Multi-focal areas/

Climate change,

biodiversity and

desertification

Assess the National Capacity

building needs

to implement the three

environmental conventions

("Climate Change",

"Desertification" &

"Biodiversity".

HCENR UNDP/GEF National-Sudan

Documents

Sudan Climate Change- Balgis Elasha