Sulphur supply and demand outlook Supply and... · 2018-11-27 · • Between 2017-2021 Jorf Phosphate Hub demand increases by 828,000t • UAE to continue to hold position as number

LondonHoustonMoscow

SingaporeDubai

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Sulphur supply and demand outlookFertilizer Technology and Outlook Conference, Hyatt Regency, Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Claira Lloyd, Sulphur Editor14 November 2018

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The Argus view



• Supply and demand overview

• 2018, another unexpected year

• Near term production and demand

• Regional focus

• Beyond 2019

• Key takeaways

Agenda

Market Reporting

ConsultingEvents

Supply and demand overview

Net importing and exporting countries


Net exportersNet importers

Elemental sulphur production


Source: Argus Analytics

2018

Oil based 47pc

Gas based 47pc

Oilsands based 4pc

Other includingFrasch mined 2pc

2020

Oil based 48pc

Gas based 46pc

Oilsands based 4pc

Other including Fraschmined 2pc

Sulphur consumption



2018

Fertilizers 63pc

Metals 6pc

Industrial and non-acid 31pc

2020

Fertilizers 65pc

Metals 6pc

Industrial and non-acid 29pc

Sulphur consumption for fertilizers



2018

Phosacid 89pc SSP 3pc Amsul 7pc SOP <1pc 2020

Phosacid 89pc SSP 3pc Amsul 7pc SOP <1pc

Market Reporting

ConsultingEvents

2108

Another unexpected year

East of Suez, $/t


110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

Thursday, January 4, 2018Sunday, February 4, 2018Sunday, March 4, 2018Wednesday, April 4, 2018Friday, May 4, 2018Monday, June 4, 2018Wednesday, July 4, 2018Saturday, August 4, 2018Tuesday, September 4, 2018Thursday, October 4, 2018Sunday, November 4, 2018

China cfr high granular price Middle East fob high price

Chinese end-users start returning to the

market post New Year

Low levels of spot activity keep prices

stagnant

Drop continuing post November 2017 spike

in all global sulphur markets

Spot prices start their steady and

continuous climb

Golden Week holiday and high cfr offers

remove buyers

Muntajat tender award keeps fob

stable

Weak sentiment impacts both prices

Source: Argus Sulphur

Slight softening continues driven by

sentiment

West of Suez, $/t


110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Thursday, January 4, 2018Sunday, February 4, 2018Sunday, March 4, 2018Wednesday, April 4, 2018Friday, May 4, 2018Monday, June 4, 2018Wednesday, July 4, 2018Saturday, August 4, 2018Tuesday, September 4, 2018Thursday, October 4, 2018Sunday, November 4, 2018

Brazil cfr high price US Gulf fob high price

Price drops from 2017 highs came but at a slight lag as liquidity

was thin

Low levels of liquidity persisted in the US

Gulf because of maintenanceGlobal market trend of

flat pricing as 3Q negotiations commence

Price movements in step as only Copebrasactive in spot market

Supply/demand balance and global movements

firm US Gulf prices

Three spot purchases and contract conclusions

firm spot price

Lack of liquidity in both markets

holding prices steady

Source: Argus Sulphur

Spot prices soften on concluded

business

Market Reporting

ConsultingEvents

Near term supply and demand

Regional demand, mn t


9.7

10.2

10.7

11.2

2017 2018 2019

7.7

8.2

8.7

9.2

9.7

2017 2018 2019

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

2017 2018 2019

22

23

24

25

26

27

2017 2018 2019

0

2

4

2017 2018 2019

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

2017 2018 2019


4.7

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5

2017 2018 2019

Demand highlights


Changes in supply to China


USA tariffs

• Removes up to 300,000t/yr from the supply chain

Iranian sanctions

• Chartering difficulties and freight increases• Limited financing for sulphur purchases

Middle East supply

• Sulphur producers shifting supply focus

Regional production, mn t


13.3

13.5

13.7

13.9

14.1

14.3

2017 2018 2019

1.42

1.47

1.52

1.57

1.62

2017 2018 2019

4.462

4.467

4.472

4.477

4.482

4.487

2017 2018 2019

12.6

13.1

13.6

14.1

14.6

15.1

15.6

2017 2018 2019

17.3

17.8

18.3

18.8

19.3

19.8

2017 2018 2019

9.8

10.3

10.8

11.3

11.8

12.3

12.8

13.3

2017 2018 2019


Production highlights


Market Reporting

ConsultingEvents

Regional focus

Increasing liquidity in the Baltic Sea, t


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17 Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18 Aug-18

Sep-18

Russia Exports Kazakhstan exports Poland Exports

Rail deliveries to Baltic Sea Rail deliveries to Black Sea

Sources: GTT, Russian rail

• Production to increase from 13.5 mn t in 2017 to 17.9 mn t in 2021

• Winter weather limitations are a factor

• Stocks are estimated at 6mn t in 2017, growing to 9.6mn t in 2021

• Effective supply will always be approx 1mn t under production capacity

East European production 2017-2021, mn t


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Russia Kazakhstan TurkmenistanPoland Uzbekistan Rest of RegionSource: Argus

Analytics

Morocco imports, ‘000t


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

UAE Russia Kazakhstan Saudi Arabia

Poland Spain USA ROWSource: GTT

• Between 2017-2021 JorfPhosphate Hub demand increases by 828,000t

• UAE to continue to hold position as number one supply market because of December agreement

• Question around the return of Russia as a key contributor to the Moroccan supply chain

Morocco demand increases 2017-2021


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Morocco additional demand

Morocco 2017 demandSource: Argus Analytics

Market Reporting

ConsultingEvents

Beyond 2019

• Kuwaiti and Qatari increase market share

• Eastern European production holds steady

• Chinese production to boost Asia’s supply position

• North America to become third biggest sulphur producing region

2020-2025 global production, mn t


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Africa Asia East EuropeLatin America Mediterranean Middle EastNorth America Oceania West Europe


• China demand increase could be offset by domestic supply

• Saudi demand to lead Middle East increases

• Africa to see the biggest of regional demand increases

• USA demand diminishing slightly, along with West Europe

2020-2025 global demand, mn t


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Africa Asia East EuropeLatin America Mediterranean Middle EastNorth America Oceania West Europe


Market Reporting

ConsultingEvents

Key takeaways

Key takeaways


Supply• More of the yellow stuff is coming, but delays

and unexpected outages are a constant

Demand• New demand is coming but limited to a few

regions

Trade• Term contract demand diverting tonnes from

the spot market

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Claira LloydSulphur Editor

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[email protected]+44 20 7199 1613Londonwww.argusmedia.comhttp://blog.argusmedia.com

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Sulphur supply and demand outlook Supply and... · 2018-11-27 · • Between 2017-2021 Jorf Phosphate Hub demand increases by 828,000t • UAE to continue to hold position as number