Summer Public Conference ORTC 2010 Update Messageskm2000.us/franklinduan/articles/itrs2011.pdf · Summer Public Conference ORTC 2010 Update Messages A. Allan, ... 2-year cycle trend

Work in Progress – Do Not Publish!1

Summer Public Conference ORTC 2010 Update Messages

A. Allan, 07/14/10, Rev 8


Summer Update to the 4/3 Italy 2009 ITRS ORTC1) ORTC Model Proposals to TWGs for TWG Interdependency Preparation for other

ORTC section features:1) “Beyond CMOS” timing unchanged in 2010 for ERD/ERM early research and transfer to PIDS;

however need for continued discussion about transfer of III/V Gate Material technology in 2011 Renewal

2) Logic “Equivalent Scaling” Roadmap Timing Update underway, and ongoing discussion of alignment of “node” and dimensional Trends for 2011 Renewal

3) New “More than Moore” (MtM) white paper draft review and discussion underway for 2011 ITRS Renewal impact and added to the ITRS website at www.itrs.net

2) MPU contacted M1 1) Unchanged for 2010 [validated by FEP data]2) 2-year cycle trend through 20133) Cross-over DRAM M1 2010/45nm4) Smaller 60f2 SRAM 6t cell Design Factor5) Smaller 175f2 Logic Gate 4t Design Factor6) Proposal from Taiwan [2011 Renewal]: Design TWG evaluate 1-year pull-in of M1

3) DRAM contacted M1 1) Unchanged for 2010: Dimensional M1 half-pitch trends remain unchanged from

2007/08/09 ITRS; new 4f2 Design factor begins 20112) Proposal [2011 Renewal]: 1-year pull-in of M1 and bits/chip trends; 4f2 push out

4) Flash Un-contacted Poly1) Unchanged for 2010: 2yr cycle trend through 2010/32nm; then 3yr cycle and also added

“equivalent scaling” bit design:1) Inserted 3bits/cell MLC 2009-11; and delayed 4bits/cell (2 companies in production) until 2012

2) Proposal [2011 Renewal]: 1-year pull-in of Poly; however 3bits/cell extended to 2018; 4bits/cell delay to 2019

http://www.itrs.net/


5) Unchanged for 2010 Tables: MPU GLpr – ’08-’09 2-yr flat; Low operating and standby line items track changes

6) Unchanged for 2010 Tables: MPU GLph – ’08-’09 2-yr flat with equiv. scaling process tradeoffs; Low operating and standby line items track changes

1) Performance targets (speed, power) on track with tradeoffs7) Unchanged for 2010 Tables: MPU Functions/Chip and Chip Size Models

1) Utilized Design TWG Model for Chip Size and Density Model trends – tied to technology cycle timing trends and updated cell design factors

2) ORTC line item OverHead (OH) area model, includes non-active area3) ORTC model impact from Taiwan proposal will be evaluated for 2011 Renewal

8) DRAM Bits/Chip and Chip Size Model Unchanged for 2010 Tables - 3-year generation “Moore’s Law” doubling cycle;

1) smaller Chip Sizes (<60mm2) with 4f2 design factor included 2) ORTC model impact updating from PIDS/FEP Survey proposals will be evaluated for 2011

Renewal9) Flash Bits/Chip and Chip Size Model Unchanged for 2010 Tables

1) 2-year generation “Moore’s Law” doubling cycle; 2) growing Chip Sizes after return to 3-year technology cycle3) ORTC model impact updating from PIDS/FEP Survey proposals will be evaluated for 2011

Renewal]10) IRC 450mm Position: Pilot lines/2012; Production/2014-16 Unchanged for 2010; also

Unchanged: “double S-curve” graphic in 2009 Executive Summary1) 450mm Program status and Long-Range IEM v12 Demand Update Scenario was presented by

ISMI to IRC for 2011 ITRS Renewal preparation2) ISMI believes the 450mm program is presently on track to meet ITRS Timing

Italy 4/9 Update to the 12/16 Taiwan 2009 ITRS ORTC (cont.)


2009 Definition of the Half Pitch – unchanged[No single-product “node” designation; DRAM half-pitch still litho driver; however,

other product technology trends may be drivers on individual TWG tables]

Source: 2009 ITRS - Exec. Summary Fig 1

Poly Pitch

Typical flash Un-contacted Poly

FLASH Poly Silicon ½ Pitch = Flash Poly Pitch/2

8-16 Lines

Metal Pitch

Typical DRAM/MPU/ASIC Metal Bit Line

DRAM ½ Pitch = DRAM Metal Pitch/2

MPU/ASIC M1 ½ Pitch = MPU/ASIC M1 Pitch/2

2009 Unchanged


Production Ramp-up Model and Technology/Cycle Timing

Months0-24

AlphaTool

12 24-12

Development Production

BetaTool

ProductionTool

First Conf.

Papers

First Two CompaniesReaching

Production 2

20

200

2K

20K

200K

AdditionalLead-time:ERD/ERM

Research andPIDS Transfer

Volum

e (Wafers/M

onth)

Production Ramp-up Model and Technology Cycle Timing

Source: 2009 ITRS - Exec. Summary Fig 2a

2009 – Unchanged

*Examples: 25Kwspm ~=4.5Mu/mo @ 280mm210Mu/mo @ 140mm215Mu/mo @ 100mm222mu/mo @ 70mm2


Continuing SoC and SiP: Higher Value Systems

Moore’s Law & MoreMore than Moore: Diversification

Mor

e M

oore

: M

inia

turiz

atio

nM

ore

Moo

re:

Min

iatu

rizat

ion

Combining SoC and SiP: Higher Value SystemsBas

elin

e C

MO

S: C

PU, M

emor

y, L

ogic

BiochipsSensorsActuators

HVPowerAnalog/RF Passives

130nm

90nm

65nm

45nm

32nm

22nm...V

130nm

90nm

65nm

45nm

32nm

22nm...V

Information Processing

Digital contentSystem-on-chip

(SoC)

Interacting with people and environment

Non-digital contentSystem-in-package

(SiP)

Beyond CMOS

Traditional ORTC Models

[Geo

met

rical

& E

quiv

alen

t sca

ling]

Scal

ing

(Mor

e M

oore

)Functional Diversification (More than Moore)

HVPower Passives

Scal

ing

(Mor

e M

oore

)

2007 ITRS Executive Summary Fig 4New workIn 2009

New in 2009:Research and PIDS transfer timing clarifiedWork underway to identify next storage element

Online in 2008:SIP “White Paper”

www.itrs.net/papers.html

New in 2009:More than Moore

“White Paper”More Commentary

In ITWG Chapters

New in 2009:Survey updates

to ORTC ModelsEquivalent Scaling

Roadmap TimingSynchronized withPIDS and FEP

Source: 2009 ITRS - Executive Summary Fig 1

2009 WAS

http://www.itrs.net/


Moore’s Law & MoreMore than Moore: Diversification

Mor

e M

oore

: M

inia

turiz

atio

n

Combining SoC and SiP: Higher Value SystemsBas

elin

e C

MO

S: C

PU, M

emor

y, L

ogic

BiochipsSensorsActuators

HVPowerAnalog/RF Passives

130nm

90nm

65nm

45nm

32nm

22nm

16 nm...V

Information Processing

Digital contentSystem-on-chip

(SoC)

Beyond CMOS

Interacting with people and environment

Non-digital contentSystem-in-package

(SiP)

2010 Update/2011 Renewal MtM Graphic Proposal from Europe IRC 2010 MtM White Paper

Update

[Note: iNEMI Roadmap work will Propose additional modifications and

Cross-roadmap alignment workTo the IRC at the July USA ITRS

Meetings]


Current figure 8c in ITRS executive summary (page 69)Equivalent Scaling Process Technologies Timing WAS 2009

[Orig. Source: ITRS, European Nanoelectronics Initiative Advisory Council] (ENIAC)Source: 2009 ITRS - Exec. Summary, Fig 8c, Equivalent Scaling Process Technologies Timing

PDSOI FDSOI

bulk

stressors + high µ SiGe materials

MuGFETMuCFET

Electrostaticcontrol

SiON

poly

high k

metalGatestack

+ III/V High µ Alternative

Channel Mat’ls

Channelmaterial

high k [II, etc]

metal


Equivalent Scaling Process Technologies Timing Final Proposal - for 2011 work

Proposed

figure 8c in ITRS executive

summary

Metal

High kGate‐stack

material

2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

Bulk

FDSOI

Multi‐gate(on bulk or SOI)Structure

(electrostatic

control)

Channelmaterial

Metal

High k

2nd generation

Si + Stress

S D

High‐µmaterial ?

S D

PDSOI

Metal

High k

nth generation

= Additional timing movementconsiderations for 2011 ITRS work

See also PIDS, FEP, ERD, and ERM chapters’ text and tables for additional detail)


ERD/ERM Long-Range R&D and PIDS Transfer Timing Model Technology Cycle Timing[Example: III-V MOSFET High-mobility Channel Replacement Materials]

Source: 2009 ITRS - Executive Summary Fig 2b

Months

AlphaTool


BetaTool

ProductTool

Vol

ume

(Waf

ers/

Mon

th)

2

20

200

2K

20K

200KResearch

-72 0 24-48 -24-96

Transfer to PIDS/FEP(96-72moLeadtime)

First Tech. Conf.

Device PapersUp to ~12yrs

Prior to Product

20192017201520132011 2021III/V Hi-μ

gateExample:

1st 2 Co’sReach

Product

First Tech. Conf.

Circuits PapersUp to ~ 5yrs

Prior to Product

2009

Unchanged


Volu

me

Years

AlphaTool

BetaTool

Tools for Pilot line

32nm (extendable to 22nm) M1 half-pitch capable Beta tools by end of 2011

Consortium Pilot Line Manufacturing

22nm (extendable to 16nm) M1 half- pitch capable tools


450mm 32nm M1 half-pitchPilot Line Ramp

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

BetaTool

ProductionTool

450mm Production Ramp-up Model[ 2009 Figure 2c A Typical Wafer Generation Pilot Line and Production “Ramp” Curve ]

Source: 2009 ITRS - Executive Summary Fig 2c

2009 Unchanged


IRC Graphic update Proposal Considerations

Also 450mm “Dual S-Curve” and possible alignment with “Node vs. Technology Trends”


13

2009 ITWG Table Timing: 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

68nm 45nm 32nm 22nm 16nm2009 IS ITRS DRAM M1 :

2009 ITRS MPU/hpASIC M1 : 76nm 65nm 54nm 45nm 38nm 32nm 27nm 19nm 13nmMPU/hpASIC “Node”: “45nm” “32nm” “22nm” “16nm” “11nm” “8nm”

2009 ITRS hi-perf GLph : 32nm 29nm 29nm 27nm 24nm 22nm 20nm 15nm 12nm2009 ITRS hi-perf GLpr : 54nm 47nm 47nm 41nm 35nm 31nm 28nm 20nm 14nm

45nm 32nm 22nm 16nm 11nm2009 IS ITRS Flash Poly : 54nm

New for 2009

Volu

me

Years

AlphaTool

BetaTool

Tools for Pilot line

32nm (extendable to 22nm) M1 half-pitch capable Beta tools by end of 2011

Consortium Pilot Line Manufacturing

22nm (extendable to 16nm) M1 half-pitch capable tools


450mm 32nm M1 half-pitchPilot Line Ramp

20 10

20 11

20 12

20 13

20 14

20 15

20 16

BetaTool

ProductionTool

450mm Production Ramp-up Model[ 2009 Figure 2c A Typical Wafer Generation Pilot Line and Production “Ramp” Curve ]

Source: 2009 ITRS - Executive Summary Fig 2c

450mm Production Ramp-up Model[ 2009 ITRS Figure 2c A Typical Wafer Generation Pilot Line and Production “Ramp” Curve ]

Versus “Node”/actual contacted M1 and un-contacted Poly Half-Pitch alignment

2009 WAS


Technology Cycle Timing Compared to Actual Wafer Production Technology Capacity Distribution

* Note: The wafer production capacity data are plotted from the SICAS* 4Q data for each year, except 2Q data for 2009.The width of each of the production capacity bars corresponds to the MOS IC production start silicon area for that rangeof the feature size (y-axis). Data are based upon capacity if fully utilized.

Year

W.P.C.= Total Worldwide Wafer Production Capacity* Sources:SICAS

0.01

0.1

1

10

200620052004

W.P.C.

1999

W.P.C.

2000

W.P.C.

2001

W.P.C.

2002

W.P.C.

2003

W.P.C. W.P.C.

2007 2008 2009

W.P.C. W.P.C.

-

-

W.P.C. W.P.C.

Feat

ure

Siz

e (H

alf P

itch)

(μm

)>0.7μm

0.7-0.4μm

0.4-0.3μm

0.3- 0.2μm

0.2- 0.16μm

0.16-.12μm

<0.08μm

0.08-.12μm

2008/09 ITRS: 2.5-Year Ave Cycle for DRAM

2-Year DRAM Cycle 3-Year DRAM Cycle ; 2-year Cycle Flash and MPU3-Year Cycle

2010 2013

= 2003/04 ITRS DRAM Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Actual= 2007/09 ITRS DRAM Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Target= 2009 ITRS Flash Uncontacted Poly Half Pitch Target= 2009 ITRS MPU/hpASIC Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Target

3-Year CycleAfter 2010 for

Flash; after 2013For MPU


2009 WAS


0.01

0.1

1

10

2006200520041999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2007 2008 2009

W.P.C .= Total Worldwide Wafer Production Capacity* Sources: SICAS

W.P.CW.P.C W.P.C W.P.C W.P.C W.P.C W.P.C W.P.C W.P.C W.P.C W.P.C

>0.7μm

0.7-0.4μm

0.4-0.3μm

0.3- 0.2μm

0.2- 0.16μm

0.16-.12μm

<0.08μm

0.08-.12μm

<0.06μm

Technology Cycle Timing Compared to Actual Wafer Production Technology Capacity Distribution

* Note: The wafer production capacity data are plotted from the SICAS* 4Q data for each year, except 2Q data for 2009.The width of each of the production capacity bars corresponds to the MOS IC production start silicon area for that rangeof the feature size (y-axis). Data are based upon capacity if fully utilized.

Year

Feat

ure

Siz

e (H

alf P

itch)

(μm

)

2008/09 ITRS: 2.5-Year Ave Cycle for DRAM

2-Year DRAM Cycle 3-Year DRAM Cycle ; 2-year Cycle Flash and MPU3-Year Cycle

2010 2013

= 2003/04 ITRS DRAM Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Actual= 2007/09 ITRS DRAM Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Target= 2009 ITRS Flash Un-contacted Poly Half Pitch Target= 2009 ITRS MPU/hpASIC Contacted M1 Half-Pitch Target

3-Year CycleAfter 2010 for

Flash; after 2013For MPU


4Q09 SICAS Update ProposalFrom Furukawa-san/Japan

To IRC 3/28/10 (modified by AA)

Year

Documents

Summer Public Conference ORTC 2010 Update Messageskm2000.us/franklinduan/articles/itrs2011.pdf · Summer Public Conference ORTC 2010 Update Messages A. Allan, ... 2-year cycle trend