SunShot Getting to Ubiquitous Solar - IEEE · Strategic analysis: - Cost - Competitiveness - Market Commercialization and business innovation ... • US competitiveness analysis:

energy.gov/sunshot

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SunShot Getting to Ubiquitous Solar

Lidija Sekaric, Program Manager

Technology to Market

energy.gov/sunshot

So what is the SunShot Initiative?

1

SunShot Initiative SunShot Initiative

6 ¢/kwh without subsidy

A 75% cost reduction by the end of the decade

Pri

ce

energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot

2030 Utility Scale PV Base Case

OR

ID

NV

MT ND

SD

NE

WY

UT

NM AR

MS

AZ SC

OK

KS

ME

WA

CA CO

TX

MO

IL

IA

MN

WI

MI

OH

KY

TN

AL GA

VA

NY

PA

LA

NC

IN

Installed PV (GW)

< 0.1

0.1 - 1

1 - 5

5 - 10

10 - 20

20 - 30

> 30

OR

ID

NV

MT ND

SD

NE

WY

UT

NM AR

MS

AZ OK

KS

ME

WA

CA CO

TX

MO

IL

IA

MN

WI

MI

OH

KY

TN

AL GA

VA

NY

PA

LA

NC

IN

Installed Capacity: 30 GW

1.5% of electrical demand

modeled with Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

capacity-expansion model


WV

MD

NJ

CT

RI

MA

FL FL

VT VT NH NH

2030 Utility Scale PV with SunShot

OR

ID

NV

MT ND

SD

NE

WY

UT

NM AR

MS

AZ SC

OK

KS

ME

DE

WA

CA CO

TX

MO

IL

IA

MN

WI

MI

OH

KY

TN

AL GA

VA

NY

PA

LA

NC

IN

Installed PV (GW)

< 0.1

0.1 - 1

1 - 5

5 - 10

10 - 20

20 - 30

> 30

OR

ID

NV

MT ND

SD

NE

WY

UT

NM AR

MS

AZ SC

OK

KS

ME

WV

WA

CA CO

TX

MO

IL

IA

MN

WI

MI

OH

KY

TN

AL GA

VA

NY

PA

LA

MD

NC

IN

CT

RI

NJ

MA

DE

Installed Capacity: 302 GW

14% of electrical demand

energy.gov/sunshot

Technology Readiness Level 1

9

PV

C

SP

S

I T

M

BO

S

High Pen Solar Deployment, $24M, FY09-14

SEGIS-AC, $30M, FY11-13

Plug and Play $21M, FY12-16

Solar Forecasting, $30M, FY11-13

BOS-X, $30M, FY11-13

SolarABCs, $5M, FY08-12

RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT DEMONSTRATION DEPLOYMENT

HiBREDs, $20M, FY13 – FY15 CSP R&D, $39.7M, FY12-15

F-PACE, DOE/NSF, $35.8M, FY11-14

BRIDGE, $2.6M, FY12

Next Generation PV, $24.5M, FY11-15

Incubator 1-7, $92M, FY07-12

Incubator 8, $12M, FY13-17

SUNPATH, $37M, FY11-13

Supply Chain, $20.3M, FY11-14 PVMI, $112.5M, FY11-16

Rooftop Solar Challenge I, $12.5M, FY11-13

SUNRISE, $10M, FY13-15 SunShot Prize, $10 M, FY12-16

Non-Hardware Balance of System, $13.6M, FY11-14

SEEDS, $9M, FY13-16

SunShot Programs

F-PACE II, $12M, FY13-FY16

Distance Solar, $4M, FY13-FY16

PREDICTS, $2.5M, FY13-FY16

MURI, $10.5M, FY12-15

CSP Supply Chain, $22.9M, FY12-15

Rooftop Solar Challenge II, $12M, FY13-15

Solar(MAT) $15M, FY13-17

Baseload CSP Generation, $54.7M, FY10-14 CSP Storage, $27.9M, FY09-13

CSP ELEMENTS, $20M, FY13 – FY14

PREDICTS, $2.5M, FY14 – FY17

CSP Novel Concentrator, $20M, FY14 – FY17

CSP SunShot, $60M, FY12-16

GEARED, $12M, FY13-18

energy.gov/sunshot

Soft costs reduction: 64% of cost of a

residential system

Grid integration with higher penetration of

solar and other renewables

CSP as an enabling technology for other

renewables, thanks to thermal storage:

Supercritical CO2 to advance CSP performance

As part of CEMI, capture a greater portion of

the global value add in manufacturing

60% progress towards 2020

objectives

More than 10 GW of PV on the

nation’s grid, 4.75 GW added in

2013: 10x growth rate from 2009

Unprecedented job growth (143k

jobs, 20% growth year-over-year)

SunShot Incubator spurring small

business growth, private sector

investment: $18 in private

follow-on funding for every $1 of

DOE investment

MAJOR PROGRESS PRIORITY AREAS

2010 2020 2013

SunShot Initiative: Solar Grid Parity by 2020


PV R&D

Tech to Market

CSP R&D Systems

Integration

Balance of Systems

The SunShot Portfolio


CSP R&D



PV R&D


energy.gov/sunshot

World Record Cell Efficiencies

• ~50% of the world record cell efficiencies since 1975 were made by researchers supported by the DOE

9

energy.gov/sunshot

Limited Conversion Efficiencies Improvement for Deployed Technologies (c-Si)

Caroline Davidson, NREL, March 2013

(unpublished).

energy.gov/sunshot

Close the PV efficiency gaps

• Scientific foundation for overcoming technical barriers

• Improved understanding of materials and devices

Understand the science of device degradation

Get NREL to reclaim leadership in many areas

Back to Basics: Cell Efficiency, Model Systems,

PREDICTS

31%

18% 15% 13% 12% 10%

2%

43%

25%

20% 20% 17%

12%

8%

63%

29% 29% 29%

29%

20%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

CPV (3J) c-Si mc-Si CIGS CdTe a-Si OPV

Effi

cie

ncy

Theoretical Maximum

Laboratory Record (cell)

Typical Production (Module)


Systems Integration


energy.gov/sunshot

Moderate to high

precipitation; harsh

winter conditions, low

DNI

Hot, humid,

(subtropical

conditions);

moderate DNI Hot and arid

high DNI.

High altitude,

temperate

climate

Subtropical; high DNI;

high temperatures

Field Validation of PV Systems

energy.gov/sunshot

Developing technology to better integrate solar with the grid


Balance of

Systems


energy.gov/sunshot

Soft Costs remain a formidable barrier to more solar deployment…

energy.gov/sunshot

energy.gov/sunshot

Rooftop Solar Challenge

energy.gov/sunshot

22 Rooftop Solar Challenge Teams

Cut red tape by 1 week

600 MW installed

40,000 installations

40,000 weeks of red tape = 768 Years of red tape


Tech to Market



Manufacturing innovation and

scale-up

Strategic analysis:

- Cost - Competitiveness

- Market

Commercialization and business innovation

Tech to Market Portfolio

energy.gov/sunshot

Solar Technology Expectations Before 2008

Gartner

Hype

Cycle


Technology Readiness Level 1 9

Co

mm

erc

ializati

on

RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT DEMONSTRATION DEPLOYMENT

Incubator 1-9, $92M, FY07-13

Incubator 8, $12M, FY13

SUNPATH, $37M, FY11-14

Supply Chain, $20.3M, FY11-14

PVMI, $112.5M, FY11-16

Tech-to-Market Programs

SolarMat 1, $15M, FY13

Incubator 9, $10M, FY13

SolarMat 2, $25M, FY14 Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

Mark

et

An

aly

sis

NREL Analysis

SBIR/STTR, ~$3-4M, annually

23

Technology-agnostic, market-focused

energy.gov/sunshot

Global Annual PV Shipments by Region

24

Poly c-

Si, 55%

Mono c-

Si, 36%

a-Si, 2%

CdTe,

5%

CIS/CIG

S, 2%

PV Technology Share of

Shipments, 2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

U.S

. M

ark

et

Sh

are

Pe

rce

nta

ge

PV

Mo

du

le S

hip

me

nts

(G

W)

ROWEuropeJapanU.S.TaiwanChinaU.S. Share

energy.gov/sunshot

Manufacturing – why do it?

“Abandoning today's ‘commodity’

manufacturing can lock you out of

tomorrow's emerging industry.”

- Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel

energy.gov/sunshot 26

SunShot Manufacturing Strategy

Build on the innovation track record

Regain the supply chain

new, high-value tools and components

Support pilot, as well as scale up

Develop advanced manufacturing concepts

Goodrich et. al., “Assessing the drivers of regional trends in

solar photovoltaic manufacturing,” Energy Environ. Sci.

energy.gov/sunshot

Government interventions have distorted regional competition.

• Low-cost capital and scale,

• Corporate-tax holidays,

• Subsidized capex, land-use rights.

Supply-chain activities are collocating w/mfg.

• Skilled labor, and transport costs,

• Market access: ~40% of global PV demand to be based in Asia (by 2014)

U.S. Defensibility Scale (x-axis) factors, equally weighted:

1.) Clockspeed (product, process, organization, intangible assets), 2.) IP intensity, 3.) Trade secret or know how, 4.) Other barriers to entry (investment, regulatory, etc.).

Source: Goodrich, A.; Buonassisi, T.; Powell, D.; Woodhouse, M.; James, T. 2013. “Assessing the Drivers of Regional Trends in Solar

Photovoltaic Manufacturing.” Accepted by Energy and Environmental Science, March 2013.

US Competitiveness Analysis

Illustrative

(Draft)

energy.gov/sunshot

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014P 2015P 2016P

Ca

pa

cit

y (

GW

)

Thin Film Mfg. Capacity

c-Si Mfg. Capacity

Global Installation Additions

Global PV Manufacturing Capacity vs. Demand

28

Historic Projection

energy.gov/sunshot

29

Solar, Post-2016 Projections (GTM/SEIA)

Landscape for solar deployment post-2016 will highly depend on how far costs have decreased by 2016.

energy.gov/sunshot

SunShot Utility Scale Progress Q42013

Sources: Margolis , R., et al. (2012). "SunShot Vision Study." DOE/GO-102012-3037. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory,

pp. 265. Accessed 2013: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/47927_appendices.pdf; Goodrich, A; James, T; and Woodhouse, M.

“Residential, Commercial, and Utility-Scale Photovoltaic System Prices in the United States: Current Drivers and Cost Reduction

Opportunities.” NREL Technical Report No. TP-6A20-53347, Available Online at: www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/53347.pdf . ; NREL internal

(PV system cost) analysis (September 2013).

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/47927_appendices.pdf

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/47927_appendices.pdf

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/53347.pdf


Analysis work at NREL

• Internal market analysis: policy, installations • External market analysis • Foreign policy and investment strategy analysis • US competitiveness analysis: revenues, supply chain, value-add • Internal bottom-up cost analysis on:

• Poly andwafers (direct, thin epi, Siemens, FBR) • Cells (standard Si, PERC, IBC, HIT) • Single- and Dual-junction III-Vs and III-Vs on Si • LCPV, HCPV cells and systems • Systems LCOE: Utility, residential, mid-size systems • Regional LCOE • Trackers: assessing regional capacity factors • Critical elements supply chain analysis (availability, cost recovery,

recycling)

energy.gov/sunshot

Publications and Presentations

• Presentation at Stanford’s Precourt Institute, 2011

• Presentation at MIT Energy Initiative MITEI, 2012

• Journal article in Energy and Environmental Science, 2013

• Presentation at the National Academies of Science (MIT), 2013

energy.gov/sunshot

PV Manufacturers’ Cost

33 Sources: Corporate public filings.

• In Q4 ‘14 module costs were between $0.48-$0.58/W

• Q4 ‘13 costs from above companies are, on average, 14% less than Q4 ‘12

• Manufacturers have roadmaps to further lower costs and increase efficiencies

$0.00

$0.25

$0.50

$0.75

$1.00

$1.25

$1.50

$1.75

$2.00

$2.25

Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12Q1 '13Q2 '13Q3 '13Q4 '13

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g C

ost

(N

om

inal

$/W

)

Cost

Hanwha SolarOne

Jinko Solar

Canadian Solar

Trina Solar

Yingli

Suntech

First Solar


Module, Cell, Wafer & Polysilicon Price

34 Sources: BNEF Solar Spot Price Index (04/10/14); HIS (March 2014) Note: error bars represent high and low quotes.

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$0.0

$0.4

$0.8

$1.2

$1.6

$2.0

$2.4

Jul-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Jan-14

Po

lysi

lico

n $

/kg

$/W

att

(N

om

inal)

Polysilicon Spot (right axis)

c-Si Avg. (left axis)

Multi Wafers (left axis)

Multi Cells (left axis)

Recent study by IHS of over 200 global buyers suggests that reliability/quality is more important that price

energy.gov/sunshot

CA Systems Installed Without CSI

35

• Distributed PV installations in CA continue to grow, however majority of them are now doing

so without CSI incentives

• GTM reports that in Q4 ’13 AZ installed 15% of residential systems without incentives

Sources: CSI Database, accessed 04/02/14; GTM/SEIA Q4 2013 U.S. Solar Market Insight.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13

% o

f To

tal Q

ua

rte

rly

Ins

tall

ati

on

s

Qu

art

erl

y I

ns

tall

ati

os

n (

MW

)

CSI Installs Non-CSI, CA Distributed CSI % of Total

energy.gov/sunshot

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Dis

trib

ute

d P

V In

sta

lls

, C

um

. (

GW

)

Range of AnalystProjectionsBNEF - Distributed

Cumulative US PV Demand - Distributed

36 Sources: BNEF (H1 2014 US PV Market Outlook. March 28, 2014); Goldman Sachs (04/10/14); GTM/SEIA (Q4 2013 Solar Market Insight, March 2013). Note: P = projection.

Historic Projection

• BNEF is bullish on distributed solar getting to grid-parity with retail rates and net-metering caps being raised further

• BNEF is less bullish on utility-scale PV, predicting challenges once RPS goals have been met, and the continued low cost of natural gas

energy.gov/sunshot

Incubator Historical Funding (# of Awards)

Round 1 (2007)

Photovoltaics

10 Awards

energy.gov/sunshot


Round 2 (2008)

Photovoltaics

6 Awards

energy.gov/sunshot


Pre-Incubator (2009)

Photovoltaics

11 Awards

energy.gov/sunshot


Round 3 (2009)

Photovoltaics

4 Awards

energy.gov/sunshot


Round 4 (2010)

Photovoltaics

4 Awards

energy.gov/sunshot


Systems

Integration CSP

Round 5 (2011)

4 Awards

energy.gov/sunshot


Soft Costs

Round 6 (2012)

10 Awards

energy.gov/sunshot


Systems

Integration

CSP

Soft Costs

Photovoltaics

Round 7 (2012)

11 Awards

energy.gov/sunshot


Systems

Integration Soft Costs

Photovoltaics

Round 8 (2013)

20 Awards

energy.gov/sunshot

Historical Funding

• Early rounds saw large follow on funding

• Due to 2007-2008 solar investment enthusiasm

• Success and Failure of early round companies reflect market forces

Early Round Award Examples

energy.gov/sunshot

How hardware can drive down soft costs

Arc Fault Detection

Commercial and Utility

Install

Residential

Install

energy.gov/sunshot

Soft Cost Portfolio

energy.gov/sunshot

Find the Customer

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Prepare the quote

energy.gov/sunshot

Finance the system

energy.gov/sunshot

Install, Connect, Maintain

energy.gov/sunshot

Creating A Soft Cost Ecosystem


• Solar as a Base Load Power Source

• All Solar is Local

• Open Innovation: SunShot Catalyst & Next Generation Government Prizes

• Bringing Solutions to the Solar Industry: Startups, Technology Development, & Market Entry

• Disruptive Solar Technologies: Frontiers in New Materials and Approaches

• Looking Forward: The Solar Market in 2040 • Solar in the Connected Building

• The New Science of Soft Costs: Tutorials in Big Data, Social Physics, and Randomized Pilots

• Business Innovation in Solar: Thriving Beyond Incentives

• A Look Ahead: PV Manufacturing in 10 Years • The Future of CSP: Opportunities and Challenges • Pitch for Solar • The SunShot Approach: How a Funding Opportunity is Born and Managed

• The Next Frontier for Solar Deployment: The Mid-Size Market

• Solar Securitization: Opportunities and Challenges

• Getting in the Loop: PV Hardware Recycling and Sustainability

SunShot Grand Challenge Summit May 19-22, 2014, Anaheim, CA


Thank You

Dr. Lidija Sekaric SunShot Initiative

[email protected]

Documents

SunShot Getting to Ubiquitous Solar - IEEE · Strategic analysis: - Cost - Competitiveness - Market Commercialization and business innovation ... • US competitiveness analysis: