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SUPER MOBILITY WEEK 2014
GLOBAL MOBILE BROADBAND OVERVIEW
September 9-11, 2014 Las Vegas
www.4gamericas.org
4G AMERICAS’ MISSION
4G Americas will advocate for and foster
the advancement and full capabilities of
3GPP mobile broadband technologies,
including LTE-Advanced, throughout the
ecosystem’s networks, services,
applications and wirelessly connected
devices in the Americas.
www.4gamericas.org
GLOBAL MOBILE BROADBAND
OVERVIEW
reaching
100% by 2020
+50% per year
+25% per year
+10% per year
Traffic volume per subscriber
Assumptions
Total subscriber base
Mobile broadband penetration
Realistic traffic increase modeling (M2M/IoT traffic not considered)
FROM 2020 MOBILE NETWORKS NEED TO BE READY TO COPE
WITH THE 1000X DATA CHALLENGE
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
1000x
Source: NSN, October 2013
www.4gamericas.org
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report June 2014
GLOBAL MOBILE BROADBAND FORECAST - 2019
North America = leading LTE market
85% of subscriptions on LTE in 2019
www.4gamericas.org
MOBILE BROADBAND
DEPLOYMENTS
GLOBAL 3GPP MOBILE BROADBAND STATUS
HSPA
HSPA+
LTE
• 556 NETWORKS
• 203 COUNTRIES
• 5000+ DEVICES
• 365 NETWORKS
• 157 COUNTRIES
• 321 NETWORKS
• 111 COUNTRIES
• 1,889 DEVICES
Data as of Sept 2, 2014
Sources: 4G Americas; Ovum; GSA
www.4gamericas.org
HSPA 24%
GSM 62%
TD-SCDMA 4%
CDMA 6%
LTE 4%
Source: Ovum, WCIS, June 2014
GLOBAL MOBILE TECHNOLOGY MARKET SHARES
6.9 Billion Total Mobile Connections
1.6 Billion 4.3 Billion
June 2014
www.4gamericas.org
GLOBAL LTE CONNECTIONS TODAY
45% 36%
13% US/Canada Asia Pacific
Western Europe
Middle East 1%
Latin America 1.5%
Africa .7%
Eastern Europe 1.5%
Source: Ovum, WCIS, June 2014
June 2014 Total Connections = 280.5 million
127 million 102 million
38 million
MOBILE BROADBAND MARKET SHARES 2019
6.7 Billion Mobile Broadband Connections
79% of Total Global Subscriptions
TD-SCDMA 130 Million
2%
HSPA 3.9 Billion
58%
LTE 2.3 Billion
35%
CDMA 313 Million
5%
93% HSPA/LTE
2% TD-SCDMA
5% CDMA (CDMA EV-DO Revs A-B)
3GPP = HSPA, HSPA+, LTE, LTE-Advanced, TD-SCDMA
3GPP Technologies = 95% of Mobile Broadband Connections
Projected Total Global Wireless Subscriptions
8.5 Billion
www.4gamericas.org
Source: Ovum, WCIS, June 2014
Latin America &
Caribbean
45 Networks
18 Countries
Africa
25 Networks
13 Countries
North
America
49 Networks
2 Countries Asia Pacific
58 Networks
24 Countries
Data as of 5 Sept 2014
Eastern
Europe
53 Networks
23 Countries
Western
Europe
73 Networks
24 Countries
Middle East
19 Networks
8 Countries
321 Networks
111 Countries
20 Networks
15 Countries
556 Networks
203 Countries 365 Networks
157 Countries
LTE
Networks &
Countries
HSPA-LTE DEPLOYMENTS
www.4gamericas.org
Status of LTE-Advanced Commercial Launches as of August 2014
Country Operator Launch Date
1 Australia Telstra November 2013
2 Czech Republic Vodafone July 2014
3 Czech Republic T-Mobile July 2014
4 Estonia EMT August 2014
5 France Bouygues July 2014
6 France Orange July 2014
7 Hong Kong CSL February 2014
8 Japan KDDI May 2014
9 Netherlands KPN June 2014
10 Philippines Smart
Communications August 2014
11 Portugal Vodafone June 2014
12 Russia Megafon February 2014
13 Saudi Arabia STC February 2014
14 Singapore SingTel Mobile May 2014
15 South Korea SK Telecom June 2013
16 South Korea LG U+ July 2013
17 South Korea KT Corp September 2013
18 Switzerland Swisscom June 2014
19 USA AT&T March 2014
20 USA Sprint March 2014
LTE-ADVANCED DEPLOYMENTS
www.4gamericas.org
NORTH AMERICA LTE GROWTH
2 +5
+17
+25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2010 2011 2012 2013
LTE Network Growth
49 Commercial Today 286 Million by 2019 (66%)
# N
etw
ork
s
Source: Ovum, WCIS Subscription Forecast 2014 Source: 4G Americas, Public Announcements
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Dec 14Dec 15Dec 16Dec 17Dec 18Dec 19
Mil
lio
ns
LTE Subscription Growth
www.4gamericas.org
LATIN AMERICA GROWTH AND
FORECAST
LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN MOBILE TECHNOLOGY MARKET SHARES
HSPA 32%
CDMA 1%
GSM 65%
LTE 0.5%
iDEN 1%
Source: Ovum, WCIS, June 2014
230 Million
466 Million
10 Million
4.8 Million
7.5 Million
719 Million Total Mobile Connections
www.4gamericas.org
3GPP GLOBAL SUBSCRIBER GROWTH
IN LATIN AMERICA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
GSM
520 M 466M
149 M
230 M
Total 2Q 2014 Subscriptions = 719M
Total YoY Growth =
26M
June 2013 June 2014
Source: Ovum WCIS, 2Q2014
82M new subscriptions (55% annual increase)
HSPA
& LTE
www.4gamericas.org
www.4gamericas.org
Antigua &
Barbuda
Digicel* 700 MHz
Aruba SETAR 1800 MHz
Bahamas BTC 700 MHz
Cayman Islands C&W Lime 700 MHz
Digicel* 700 MHz
Costa Rica
ICE/Kolbi
Claro
Movistar
2600 MHz
1800 MHz
1800 MHZ
Dominican
Republic
Claro
Orange
Dominicana
1700/2100 AWS
1800 MHz
Tricom 1900 MHz
Puerto Rico
AT&T 1700/2100 AWS
Claro 700 MHz
Open Mobile 700 MHz
Sprint 850/1900 MHz
T-Mobile 1700/2100 AWS
Virgin Islands AT&T 1700/2100 AWS
Sprint 1900 MHz
México Movistar 1700/2100 AWS
Telcel 1700/2100 AWS
Colombia
Avantel 2100 AWS
Claro 2500/2690 MHz
Movistar 1700/2100 AWS
Tigo - UNE 1700/2100 AWS
2500/2690 MHz
Bolivia Entel, Tigo 700 MHz
Brazil
Claro 2500/2690 MHz
Nextel
Oi
1800 MHz
2500/2690 MHz
ON* 2500/2690 MHz
Sky Telecom* 2500/2690 MHz
TIM 2500/2690 MHz
VIVO 2500/2690 MHz
Chile
Claro 2500/2690 MHz
Entel 2500/2690 MHz
Movistar 2500/2690 MHz
Ecuador CNT Mobile 1700/2100 AWS
Paraguay Personal 1900 MHz
VOX 1700/2100 AWS
Peru Movistar
Claro 1700/2100 AWS
Uruguay Antel 1700/2100 AWS
Claro 1700/2100 AWS
Venezuela Digitel 1800 MHz
*Indicates TDD networks (remainder
FDD)
LTE IN LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN
(Sources: Public announcements, regulatory entities)
Band (MHz) Networks Band(MHz) Networks
700 8 1800 6
850 / 1900 1 1700/2100 14
1900 3 2500-2690 12
44 Networks 18 Countries
(as of 5 September 2014)
6M
13M
25M
89 M
Source: Ovum, WCIS, 2Q2014
Subscriptions
47M
FORECASTED LTE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH
IN LATIN AMERICA
www.4gamericas.org
9M
Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Dec 2018 Dec 2019
9X INCREASE IN MOBILE DATA USAGE
IN LATIN AMERICA 2013-2019
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, Nov. 2013
From 53 PB to
463 PB
monthly,
the majority
from
smartphones
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Smartphone Mobile PC/Router/Tablet
Mobile Data Growth by Device Type
Pe
tab
yte
s p
er
mo
nth
www.4gamericas.org
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION
1000x • MIMO & Advanced
Receiver
• HetNet / Small Cells
• Carrier Aggregation
• eCoMP
• Maximize below 4 GHz
• Internationally Harmonized
• AWS-3 : 1755-1780/ 2155-2180
• TV Incentive Auctions (USA)
• 3.5 GHz
• Licensed Shared Access
• Authorized Shared Access
• Supplemental Downlink
INCREASING SUPPORT & CAPACITY UP TO
www.4gamericas.org
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION TO LTE-ADVANCED
Throughputs rates are peak theoretical network rates for that technology release. Dates refer to expected initial commercial network deployment except 2011, which shows technologies that year. There are no public announcements of deployment of WiMAX Rel 1.5 nor IEEE 802.16m. X/Y MHz indicates X MHz used on the downlink and Y MHz used on the uplink. Source: Rysavy Research/4G Americas, 2013
ww
w.4
ga
me
ric
as
.org
HSPA, HSPA+
LTE, LTE-Advanced
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
BRINGING THE NETWORK CLOSER TO THE
USER: KEY TO 1000X
USER DEPLOYED
Typically indoor small cells
4G
Relays
&
Wireless
Backhaul
RESIDENTIAL
ENTERPRISE
1 Such as relay and Pico/Metro/RRH small cells for hotspots. RRH= Remote Radio Heads, in addition Distributed Antenna Systems are used in HetNets
Extreme Densification—3G/4G+Wi-Fi Small Cells Everywhere
Wi-Fi integrated with 3G/4G for opportunistic offload
OPERATOR DEPLOYED
Indoor/outdoor small cells1
METRO
– Tapping into
Small Cell
potential
www.4gamericas.org
CARRIER AGGREGATION Fatter pipe to enhance user experience
Aggregated Data Pipe
Up to 100 MHz Up to 20 MHz
Up to 20 MHz
Up to 20 MHz
Up to 20 MHz
Up to 20 MHz
LTE Carrier #3
LTE Carrier #1
LTE Carrier #4
LTE Carrier #2
LTE Carrier #5
Higher peak data rates
Higher user data rates and lower latencies
for all users
More capacity for typical ‘bursty’ usage1
Utilizes all spectrum assets
www.4gamericas.org
REGULATORY INNOVATION
A NEW WAY OF LICENSING SPECTRUM
Authorized Shared Access - ASA
Harmonization and Global Standards Drive Economies of Scale
Exclusive Use Ensures Quality of Service
Shared Use Unpredictable
Quality of Service Exclusive Shared Use Exclusive use on a shared and binary
basis in Time, Location, and/or
Frequency domains with Incumbent
(government, etc.)
Ensures Quality of Service
Complementary
License Model
Authorized Shared
Access - ASA
Unlicensed
Approach
Wi-Fi example
Mainstream,
Preferred Approach
Auctions
of Cleared Spectrum
www.4gamericas.org
Base station MNO
Base station MNO
Incumbent)
Multi-bands
Device
NW controls access to spectrum (licensed, ASA)
NW controls
access to
spectrum
(licensed)
NW
controls
access to
ASA
spectrum
Permitted
ASA
spectrum:
Where,
When
ASA
Repository
(Incumbent)
ASA
Controller
(MNO) Commercial sharing
agreement
under permission of
the Regulator
Regulator
Incumbent ASA
Licensee
ASA ARCHITECTURE (Licensed Shared Access)
www.4gamericas.org
SPECTRUM
SPECTRUM SCARCITY
The Mobile industry will need an
additional 500 MHz above the existing spectrum base by
2020
ITU analysis states
that spectrum
requirements by
2020 for a single
network within a
single country will
range from 1280-
1720 MHz. Countries in the
Americas will need an
additional 557-997
MHz beyond
identified spectrum
allocations by 2020.
--2010 --2007 --2006
1300 MHz of
total spectrum
allocation has
been
recommended by
ITU for 2015; 3 markets in Latin
America are
between 30-40%
of this goal, and
the rest fall below
30%.
www.4gamericas.org
Additional spectrum
for LTE by refarming
& re-assignment
Cleared spectrum
prioritized!
Dynamic
combination of
fragmented
spectrum
When needed,
unlock spectrum by
Authorized Shared
Access (ASA)* with
predictable QoS
MAXIMIZE SPECTRUM FOR CONNECTIVITY
AWS Extension Bands
PCS 1900 Extension Bands
TV Bands Incentive Auction
3.5 GHz
5GHz
Carrier aggregation
ASA
Carrier
Aggregation
New bands
Source: 4G Americas Member Company
3.5 GHz
Other underutilized bands? * Also referred to as Licensed Shared Access (LSA)
www.4gamericas.org
POSSIBLE SPECTRUM OPTIONS
INDUSTRY EFFORTS & POTENTIAL RETURNS
Advanced Wireless Services extensions
•
•
•
Broadcast Television Spectrum
•
•
•
•
Other Federal Spectrum opportunities
•
•
Other •
U.S. SPECTRUM OPPORTUNITIES
www.4gamericas.org
Percent of ITU
recommendations achieved,
selected countries
0% 50% 100%
Ecuador
Argentina
Mexico
Peru
Chile
Colombia
Brazil
15%
14%
23%
23%
30%
39%
32%
303 MHz
503 MHZ
412.5 MHz
395 MHz
304 MHz
190 MHz
180 MHz
LATIN AMERICA SPECTRUM STATUS
• Reference point -
requirement for 1300 MHz by
2015 indicated by the ITU
(ITU-R M.2078)
• Summary of Regional
Situation : 3 markets are
between 30%-40% of this goal,
6 are between 20%-30%, and
the remainder are between
10%-20%.
• Source: 4G Americas, Analysis of ITU
Spectrum Recommendations in the Latin
American Region (2013).
1300Mhz
www.4gamericas.org
SPECTRUM AND OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
FOR LATIN AMERICA IN 2014
• 700 MHz in Latin America
- Auctions: Chile (Complete); Colombia (2015); Brazil &
Argentina (4Q 2014)
- Mexico: novel wholesale network planned
• Preparations within CITEL for WRC 2015
• Other topics
- Spectrum liberation
- Secondary spectrum markets
- 2G license renewals
- Quality of service regulation
www.4gamericas.org
4G AMERICAS EXECUTIVES
Chris Pearson
President
Office: +1 425 372 8925 [email protected]
Bob Calaff
Director of Latin America &
Caribbean
Office: +1 206 659 4777 [email protected]
Vicki Livingston
Head of Communications
and Analyst Relations
Office: +1 262 242 3458 [email protected]
Company Website www.4gamericas.org
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