Superbowl ROI POV

1© 2011 Critical Mass, Inc. All Rights Reserved© 2008 Critical Mass, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Super Bowl ROI Point of View

October 19, 2012

2© 2011 Critical Mass, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Is the Super Bowl a good platform for ROI?

1. What role does creative play in Super Bowl Success?

1. Appendix


1. INTRODUCTION


The Last American Conversation

100 million attentive Americans willingly talking about brands during a live event has become a rarity.

But consumers come to the Super Bowl primed and ready. They want to watch the commercials, and look forward to discussing them!

Media Multitasking.Friends are chatting in person, on their smartphones, laptops, and tablets through social networking channels, and searching on mobile pre- and during the game.

The Conversation.12.2 million people mentioned the 2012 Super Bowl on social media.28% talked about a brand, 14% purchased, 10% visited, 9% searched, 8% commented on Facebook, 5% tweeted.*See notes in Slide 46


The Competition for Attention

Digital media is continuing the information fragmentation.

Advertising Spend

Over 1/3 of Super Bowl advertisers during the past two years dedicated more than 10% of their annual advertising budget to spots aired during the game.

The volume, reach and willingness to consume commercial messaging is unmatched in today’s media landscape. This is the last great American TV Event.


Finding Super Bowl ROI… Is it Possible?

No…."There is no proof of ROI for Super Bowl ads or any long term benefit

for brands and their equity; companies ought to take one important lesson from those who walk away. This is not a game most marketers can win."

- Avi Dan, Forbes Magazine

And Yes…

Companies and agencies have their own internal models and tools for determining ROI, but they require proprietary knowledge to use effectively.


2. IS THE SUPER BOWL A GOOD PLATFORM FOR ROI?


Is the Super Bowl a good platform for ROI?

Answer: No*.

From our research we could not find any evidence of the Super Bowl consistently driving ROI for

advertisers.

(*The efficient CPMs for Super Bowl advertising can create positive ROI for brands that have pre-existing ROI valuations for TV exposure.)

*See notes in Slide 46

“In a survey by the Retail Advertising and Marketing Association (RAMA, a division of the National Retail Federation), 73 percent of respondents said they view Super Bowl commercials as part of the entertainment, with only 8.4 percent saying the commercials influence them to buy products.”

-Businessweek.com, Feb 3, 2012


Case Study Findings

The Super Bowl Platform is not well used for specific KPI achievement or targeted messaging:

• Significantly changing brand perception or positioning• Niche or internationally-focused brands• Direct Sales, conversion or ROI

The Super Bowl Platform is best used for broad awareness:• Market/category leaders maintaining position• Brands in jeopardy looking for a game changer• New brands with a big launch reveal or aggressively

expanding

*Full Case Studies are in the Appendix.


Publicly-Available Data Findings

There is no correlation between Super Bowl advertising spend and year-over-year Sales growth:

• First-time Super Bowl Advertisers saw between -16% and 9% year-over-year Q1 sales growth (or decline) in 2012.

• 2011 and 2012 Super Bowl Advertisers as a whole had equally inconsistent results as a group.

• There was no correlation between industry or company aggregate advertising spend and Super Bowl spending over time.

While there are many factors involved, Super Bowl advertising does not significantly affect sales to influence top-level financial results.


Is the Super Bowl a good platform for ROI?

Answer: No*.

*But the Super Bowl is the last Great American Conversation. Remember:

“Consumers come to the Super Bowl primed and ready. They want to watch the commercials, and look forward to discussing them!”

This is the one way Super Bowl advertising might create ROI in today’s digital world.

“I always counsel companies to view Super Bowl advertising the same way they view sports sponsorships—as a platform which must be activated in order to generate enough ROI to justify the premium being paid. Social media is the logical way to best capitalize on the convergence of sports engagement, the Super Bowl, and the desire of viewers to share their views on the game and the commercials in real time.“

-Ray Katz, managing partner of Source1Sports, a sports marketing agency.

* See slide 46 for notes and citation


3. WHAT ROLE DOES CREATIVE PLAY?


Driving ROI through Brand Engagement

Brand Engagement manifests itself through Social Engagement. Social Engagement is driven by the quality and theme of the creative.

Brand Engagement creates Brand Believers. These Believers do 2 things:1.Create more Believers through Word-of-mouth2.Consistently purchase the products and brands they believe in

This drives long-term sales growth as the effect compounds over time.

*See slide 46 for citation


Creative drives Brand Engagement

CM’s research showed that creative quality and theme directly affected social engagement, as measured by “Buzz.”

Buzz is the volume of discussion across all social platforms.

Methodology

CM measured Buzz against advertisements ranked by quality (via Consensus Rating*) and Creative Theme* for the 2012 Super Bowl, and looked for trends across three time periods.

• Peak Buzz measures the average buzz mention volume for all commercials with that creative theme for Feb 5-6, 2012.

• 4-Week Buzz measures the percentage lift (or decline) of buzz when comparing the 4 weeks preceding the Super Bowl to the 4 weeks following the Super Bowl.

• 12-Week Buzz is the same as 4-week buzz, but with extended time windows.

*See Appendix for Explanation of the 11 Creative themes and Consensus Rating Methodology *See slide 46 for citation .


Peak Buzz by Ad Quality

CM measured Peak Buzz (buzz on Feb 5-6, 2012) Ad Quality*.

There is a correlation between ad quality and associated buzz.

Conclusion: to generate buzz and brand engagement, an important thing to do is make an exceptional commercial.

Top 10 Best Ads

Bottom 10 Worst Ads*

*see Appendix for Consensus Rating methodology.

*See slide 46 for notes


Brand Buzz Duration by Ad Quality

CM measured 4-week post-Super Bowl Buzz for all the top and bottom rated brands (buzz from Feb 5-Mar 10) against Ad Quality.

There is a strong correlation between ad quality and associated medium-term buzz.

Conclusion: The need to create a good commercial persists in the medium term.

*See Slide for notes


Brand Buzz Duration by Ad Quality

CM measured 12-week post-Super Bowl Buzz for all the top and bottom rated brands (buzz from Nov 13-Apr 29) against Ad Quality.

There is no correlation between ad quality and long-term buzz.

Conclusion: Due to the Holidays and other major marketing programs against single data points, there is no opportunity for analysis over this cross section of data.

*See Slide for notes


Peak Buzz by Creative Type

Super Bowl viewers want to be engaged and entertained by meaningful messages during the broadcast itself:

• Humor, Celebrity and Sex all graded lower than expected for Peak Buzz. Cheap thrills, unless impeccably done, are now largely ignored by viewers during the Super Bowl.

• Product also graded low. Viewers want to be entertained during the Super Bowl, not informed.

* All Super Bowl ads measured here, not just Ad Quality top/bottom 10


4-Week Buzz by Creative Type

Medium-term engagement is supported by external sources, like PR and media focus.

• Celebrities and Sex graded well in the medium-term as viewers are continually engaged by ongoing 3rd-party PR and user-supported celebrity fan bases for these efforts.

• “Storytelling” themes, like Tradition, Culture and American, all grade low in the medium term, as users have digested and moved on from those stories. This is in direct contrast to the broadcast itself.

* All Super Bowl ads measured here, not just top/bottom 10


12-Week Buzz by Creative Type

Longer-term engagement with consumers is created by focusing on Brand Trust.

• Sex and Humor crash over the long term as the content grows old and new sexy and funny things come into the public awareness.

• Celebrities continue to have strong buzz, likely still driven by the celebrities’ existing fan bases.

*Note: Overall Declining brand buzz relates to the survey period covering the Holidays, which drives large brand buzz.

* All Super Bowl ads measured here, not just top/bottom 10


Creative Conclusions

To drive brand engagement and in turn creation of Brand Believers, brands must:

1. Tell an engaging story in the short term by using themes that align with engaging content.

2. Create brand trust through storytelling for long-term engagement.

3. Partner with a celebrity that shares the brand values to leverage existing fan bases over time (optional).

This is no different than normal creative thematic strategy, but it is amplified by the social and public theater of the Super Bowl.

*See slide 25 for notes


Aggregate Conclusions

The Super Bowl is not a good platform for driving ROI, unless:

1.Advertisers have a pre-existing ROI valuation for TV exposure.

2.Advertisers can activate Brand believersvia brand engagement and social media.

Creative plays a significant role in speaking to consumers in the appropriate way at the appropriate time, and can spur significant engagement gain or loss accordingly.


Appendix


Creative Themes

• Sex: sexuality or physical attraction is the main attribute• Humor: the commercial has a central punchline• Animals: animals play a central role in the plot or message• Tradition: traditions, logos, songs, mottos, mascots specific to

Brand OR the Brand’s history/legacy • America: any reference to USA• Celebrities: where celebrities play a central role in the plot or

message• Kids: where children play a central role in the plot or message• Product: product is the main focus• Trust: the brand demonstrates trustworthiness through general

messaging, usually around the ideas of partnering with, protecting or understanding consumers.

• Underdog: average person doing something greater than normal with help of brand.

• Culture: cultural or popular reference main focus or underlying information for plot/message.


Consensus Rating Methodology

CM created Aggregate ratings based on expert ratings of 2012 Super Bowl Commercials.

We used ratings from the following sources:

Forbes, Adweek, Fox Sports, superbowl.org, Screenrant, Entertainment Weekly

CM ranked ads in order of:1. Inclusion in the most source

rankings2. Average rating of the ad

across rankings it was included in

Top 10:1. Chrysler, “Halftime America”2. Volkswagen, "The Dog Strikes Back"3. Honda "Matthews Day Off"4. Acura "The First One"5. Chevy "The End of the World"6. Doritos ”You Didn’t See Nuthin"7. Teleflora, “Adriana Lima”8. Dannon, “The Tease”9. Kia "Mr Sandman"10. Audi "Killing Time

Bottom 10:1. Century 21 "Super Agents"2. GE "We Make Beer"3. H&M "David Beckham"4. Time Warner Cable "Enjoy Better"5. BridgeStone "Performance Enhancers"6. Coca -cola "Polar Bears"7. Pepsi "King's Court"8. Cars.com "Confidence Lurking Over

Shoulder"9. Lexus "Change Cannot Be Contained"10. godaddy.com ”Is This Heaven?"


CASE STUDIES


Advertiser Case Study Overview

Brand Primary Objective(s)

Super Bowl Strategy Primary Channel(s)

2011 Ford Explorer

Awareness, Consideration,

PreferenceOnline New Product Reveal* Facebook, Paid Media

2011 Chrysler “Imported from

Detroit”

Brand Perception

Game Changer during the Super Bowl

TV, Youtube

2011 Pepsi Refresh

Brand Perception

Feel-Good Online Campaign* Online community, video, Facebook

2012 Chevrolet “Game Time”

Consideration, Preference

Tap into the Conversation Pre-Game

Game Time App and TV

2011 Mercedes Benz Tweet Race


Pre-game outreach to young buyers Twitter & Facebook, TV

2011 Volkswagen “The Force”


Pre-game teasers to attract Gen-X

TV, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, Paid Media

2012 Coca Cola Polar Bears

Preference, Conversion

Maintain market leadership with social campaign

Facebook, Twitter, TV

2011 Doritos “Crash the Super

Bowl”

Preference, Conversion

Pre-Game User-Generated Contest

Microsite, Youtube, TV

*Primary advertising experience evaluated was not part of the Super Bowl Telecast


Advertiser Case Study Evaluation

BrandAchieved

ObjectivesReason for Success or Failure Game Engagement Timing

2011 Ford Explorer YesReach and share of online shoppers

increasedN/A

2011 Chrysler “Imported from

Detroit”Partial

Bold campaign wins creative accolades During Game

2011 Pepsi Refresh No Drop in brand perceptions N/A

2012 Chevrolet “Game Time”

YesHigh participation: app downloads,

page views, mobile queriesPre- and During Game


PartialUnclear connection between social

campaign and TV spotPre-Game

2011 Volkswagen “The Force”

Yes Pre-game buzz and charming creative wins Gen-Xers

Pre-, During and Post-Game

2012 Coca Cola Polar Bears Yes

Pre-game promotion and innovative approach scores high viewership Pre- and During Game

2011 Doritos “Crash the Super Bowl” Yes User-submissions builds following Pre- and During Game


2011 Ford Facebook Explorer

Ford realized the benefits of digital, with reach and share of online shoppers increasing significantly.

Campaigns. Ford Explorer New Product Reveal

Super Bowl Strategy. Online Reveal (No participation in Super Bowl)

Primary Objectives. Awareness, Consideration, Preference

Measurement: Reach, Sales

Media. Facebook, Paid Media

Cost. 25% of marketing budget into digital

Return. •19.3% Reach – Overall, Jan Focus on Display Ad impressions 436 million•Over 50 million people in one day on sites such as CNN, AOL, Yahoo, Washington Post•Share of online shoppers increased day of 52% vs. Super Bowl advertisers averaged 14%*See slide 46 for citation


Ford Explorer 2011 Facebook Reveal

* See slide 46 for citation


Ford Explorer Paid Media



2011 Chrysler – Imported from Detroit

While bold campaign wins brand advocates, some question Super Bowl participation given company’s financial situation.

Campaigns. The story behind the revival of a brand, country, town and an era expressed through a common belief

Super Bowl Strategy. Game changer during the Super Bowl

Primary Objective. Brand Perception

Measurement: Brand Sentiment, Engagement

Media. TV advertising (1 spot)

Cost. Approximately $10 million

Return. •Created Advocates (measured activity on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube) •Over 14.8M views of the Super Bowl Youtube video alone


2011 Chrysler – Imported from Detroit


2011 Pepsi Refresh Project

While Pepsi boldly embraced the online campaign, questionable whether the story resonated given drop in brand perceptions.

Campaigns. Engage fans to submit and vote on socially-minded initiatives

Super Bowl Approach. Feel-Good Online Campaign (No participation)

Primary Objective. Brand Perception

Measurement: Social sentiment, online share of voice

Media. Digital: online community, video, and Facebook page.

Cost. $20 million

Return. •Brand’s “Desirescore” plummeted in the US from 34% to 20% in the US.•Gained ground on Coca-Cola two weeks following Super Bowl until Coca-Cola’s Winter Olympics

*Pepsi did however air Pepsi Max commercials during the Super Bowl. The focus of this analysis is their effort with Pepsi Refresh.



Pepsi Refresh Project



2012 Chevrolet “Game Time” App

Mobile enabled Chevrolet to become a part of the conversation and proved a positive complement to their television spots.

Campaigns. Engage fans with a chance to win prizes by playing along

Super Bowl Strategy. App launch two weeks prior to game to tap into conversation leading up to the Super Bowl

Primary Objectives. Consideration, Preference

Measurement: Pre- and during game engagement

Media. Mobile App, Television (8 Spots)

Return. •700,000 app downloads, 38 million page views, mobile queries inc. 126%•Day following Silverado “2012” was most viewed YouTube Ad Blitz 2012•Chevrolet YouTube brand channel had 25 million-plus views of Chevrolet Super Bowl content and saw 10,600-plus new channel subscribers



Chevrolet “Game Time” App



Chevrolet “Game Time” App




Luxury brand seeking to raise brand awareness among Gen-Ys falls short with an unclear connection between pre-game social campaign and Super Bowl commercial.

Campaign. Engage fans by following two-person teams driving across the country to the Super Bowl, receiving points for Tweets along the way

Super Bowl Strategy. Pre-game social outreach to younger buyers

Primary Objective. Consideration, Preference

Measurement: Consumer engagement

Media. Twitter and Facebook (Promoted Tweets, Sponsored Ads, Promoted Accounts), TV advertising.

Return. •30,000 active participants, 72,000 Facebook Fans, 77,000 Twitter Followers, 150,000+ tweets to power the cars, 2 million video views•143 million PR impressions



Mercedes Benz Tweet Race



2011 Volkswagen - The Force

Pre-game promotion leveraging social and charming creative appeals to Gen-Xers and receives acclaim pre- and post-game.

Campaign(s). Commercial for the 2012 Passat

Timing. Teaser videos leading up to the game

Super Bowl Strategy. Build pre-game buzz through teasers.

Primary Objective. Preference, Consideration

Media. YouTube, TV advertising, Paid Media (News, YouTube, ESPN)

Measurement: Targeted brand lift, consumer engagement

Return. •13.7 million views prior to game, overall 36 million views on Youtube•Paid search 480% increase day of game. Visits to VW.com up 127%

•From 2/1-2/7 interaction rates were up 214%; 12,000 new Facebook fans, average click-through per tweet was 820 (increase of 925%); added 500+ Twitter followers



Volkswagen – The Force


2012 Coca-Cola Polar Bears

Market leader receives kudos for pre-game promotion and innovative approach to engagement with fans during the game.

Campaign(s). Polar Bears hosting a live Super Bowl party on Facebook

Super Bowl Approach. Engage with fans during the game

Strategy. Maintain market leadership with social campaign during game.

Primary Objective(s). Engagement, Conversion

Measurement: Consumer engagement, Incremental Sales

Media. Facebook, Twitter, TV ads

Return. •9 million consumers across various platforms view Polar Bears•Consumers spent an average of 28 minutes engaging with the Polar Bears•Over 30,000 consumers registered on Facebook to RSVP for the event•300,000 concurrent users on live stream at kick-off and 600,000 users by the 3rd quarter

•Twitter followers grew 38% during a 4-hour period



Coca-Cola Polar Bears


2006-2012 Doritos: Crash The Super Bowl

Doritos sees continued success with user-generated contest leading up to the Super Bowl.

Campaign. User-generated submissions pitting consumer-created spots for the brand against each other for the chance to have one air during the big game.

Super Bowl Approach. Pre-game user-generated content builds following

Primary Objective. Preference, Conversion

Measurement: Consumer Engagement, Incremental Sales

Media. Digital (Microsite, News and Sports sites) and TV Spots

Cost. $412MM in 2011 (50% spend over the prior year spend during the same time period) (2011)

Return. 1.7 million views, 6,100 entries (Jan 12 2012)



Doritos: Crash The Super Bowl



* Slide NotesSlide 4: Media Multitasking Searches performed on mobile: 25% day before game, 41% during game.

62% texted and 57% trawled Facebook on mobile during game. Ways that US Millennials Socialized with their

friends while watching the 2012 Super Bowl, by Device Feb 2012

Slide 8: http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/the-super-bowls-real-roi-02032012.html

Slide 11: To activate to get ROI means ad should be used in conjunction with other programs; http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/the-super-bowls-real-roi-02032012.html

Slide 13http://gigaom.com/2012/09/24/chart-iphone-5-first-weekend-sales-compared-to-earlier-iphone-models/iphonefirstweekend-2/

Slide 14: http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/the-super-bowls-real-roi-02032012.html

Slide 15: Coca-Cola’s “Polar Bears” and Pepsi’s “King’s Court” both garnered negative ratings, but their buzz levels were significant outliers and were removed from the analysis.

Slide 16: Coca-Cola’s “Polar Bears” and Pepsi’s “King’s Court” both garnered negative ratings, but their buzz levels were significant outliers and were removed from the analysis.

Peak and 4 week buzz are addressed and 12 week buzz is not because there is no consistent trend in week 12, as individual brands have too much volatility over 12 weeks from external factors

Slide 19: Brand Trust is a specific type of messaging, in which the brand demonstrates messaging that links itself with consumer as a team.

The SB effect is isolated by research indicators and keywords that tie the brand to the SB commercial.

Slide 20: Loyalists create long term ROI. Loyalists can be construed from creative that elicits engagement.

Slide 28: Mintel, Digital Media Marketing in the Automotive Industry – February 2011, eMarketer, Ford Blends Digital with Branded Content, February 2011, Advertising Age, “Automotive News Sits Down With Ford’s Jim Farley,” August 2010 <http://adage.com/article/news/ford-s-jim-farley-digital-social-media-super-bowl/145581/>

Slide 29: Mashable, “Inside the 2011 Ford Explorer Facebook Reveal,” July 2010 <http://mashable.com/2010/07/26/ford-explorer-facebook-reveal/>

Slide 30: Mashable, “Inside the 2011 Ford Explorer Facebook Reveal,” July 2010 <http://mashable.com/2010/07/26/ford-explorer-facebook-reveal/>

Slide 33: Forrester, Consumer Goods Interactive Spend Outpaces Other Industries’, April 2010, Forrester, Measure and Manage Brand Health, July 2012, Brand Desire Study 2012

Slide 34: http://creativity-online.com/work/pepsi-refresh-project/18325

Slide 35: eMarketer, Chevy Fine-Tunes Media for Multitasking Consumers, February 2012, New York Times, “Chevy Uses App and Twinkies to Stick Out at the Super Bowl,” February 2012

Slide 36: Google Play, <https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.chevy.gametime&hl=en>

Slide 37: Google Play, <https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.chevy.gametime&hl=en>

Slide 38: eMarketer, Automotive Advertising Picks Up Speed Online, March 2011, Mintel, Digital Media Marketing in the Automotive Industry – February 2011 http://www.digitalbuzzblog.com/mercedes-benz-tweet-race-campaign-case-study/

Slide 39: http://theinspirationroom.com/daily/2011/mercedes-tweet-race-to-super-bowl/


* Slide Notes

Slide 40: Mediacom, “Case Study: VW – Setting the Stage for Success,” 2011 http://www.mediacom.com/en/news--insights/blink/issues/edition-2-2011/case-study-vw---setting-the-stage-for-success.aspx, Ace Metrix, “Super Bowl Ad,” 2011

Slide 42: eMarketer, Multichannel Marketing: Making the Most of Multiple Screens, February 2012 , Forrester, How Social Media Is Changing Brand Building, May 2012 , AdAge, “Coca-Cola Power Bowl Engaged 9 Million People,” May 2012 , Ad Age, “Coke’s Super Bowl Polar Bears Draw Bigger Crowd Than Expected,” February 2012, Wieden + Kennedy, “Coke Polar Bears Super Bowl”,” 2012 <http://vimeo.com/39911236>

Slide 44: Comscore AdMetrics Super Bowl Display Advertising, Feb 2011, FasteCoCreate, “5 Lessons in Participatory Marketing from Doritos,” 2012, AdAge, “Doritos’ Latest Super Bowl Ad Contest Storms Viral Video Chart,” 2012

Slide 45: Adweek, “Doritos’ Crash the Super Bowl Contest,” September 2011

Documents

Superbowl ROI POV