Inventoryof producers of environmental goods and services

UNFCCC In-Forum Economic Model

30 April – 1 May 2018

Supply & Use Tables(SUTs), Input-Output Tables (IOTs) and Social Accounting Matrix:

The case of Zambia.

Litia SimbangalaNational Accounts Branch, CSO, Zambia

Republic of Zambia

Central Statistical Office

Introduction

Follows methodology of Green Jobs Assessment Institutions Network (GAIN):

✓ Climate policy – construction sector

✓ Develop national statistics!

✓ Analyse employment outcomes with Input Output

✓ Social impacts with Social AccountingMatrix

The Compilation of the SUT and IOT was based mainly on the recommendations of the 2008 System of National Accounts (UN, 2008 SNA) and the 2008 Eurostat Manual on Supply, Use and input-Output Tables.

▪ SEEA framework provided the basis for the classification of what was green sector in the SUT and IOT

▪ Harmonizes SNA 2008 & Environment

Background

Goal: Assessing the potential of the economy to create jobs, particularly in the “green” sector

The GEPM exercise will generate information as follows:

• A quantitative estimate of total employment including environment-related employment;

• A quantitative estimate of green jobs that satisfy both environmental criteria and decent work criteria according to the ILO/UNEP definition;

• Quantitative estimates of indirect/induced jobs in the green economic sectors and the “green” activities

Implementation framework

MNDP, MoF, CSO, ZIPAR

Core Technical Committee

Wider stakeholder working group set up

Data framework

Input-Output Table

Green Economy (GE) Mapping

Social Accounting Matrix

Implementation Team

Statistics• Since the model was going to based on Supply and Use Tables (SUT)

and uses the Leontief Inverse of the Input Output table (IO) for employment projections.

• Therefore:-• Data from the National Accounts and the support of CSO was therefore

central.

• CSO had conducted an Economic Census in 2011/2012 for the reference year of 2010.o The main objective of the Economic Census was to benchmark the National

Accounts Statistics from 1994 to 2010.

o And compilation of the Supply and Use Tables was one of the objectives.

o However, due to the urgent need for benchmarked and rebased GDP series, CSO did not use the SUT framework. Because it was anticipated that it would take longer to compile them.

Methodology

The CSO, Zambia, with the assistance from Green Jobs , ILO and IMF AFRITAC South computed Supply & Use and Input-Output tables for the year 2010. (disseminated in November 2017)

• The 2010 SUT consists of 123 products and 24 Industries.

• The selection of the products was based on the availability of data and their importance in the economy.

• The products were classified using the Central Product Classification (CPC) 2.1 while the industries are classified using the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC), Rev.4.

• The Compilation of the SUT and IOT was based mainly on the recommendations of the 2008 System of National Accounts (UN, 2008 SNA) and the 2008 Eurostat Manual on Supply, Use and input-Output Tables.

• Balancing the SUT: two processes, namely manual and automatic balancing were employed to bring the SUT into balance.

National AccountsSupply and Use

Table

Economic Census

Living Conditions Monitoring

Survey

Consolidated Financial

Statements from BOZ

Consolidated Financial Statements

from PIA

Labor Force Survey

Consumer Price

Statistics

Balance of Payment

Merchandise Trade

Statistics

Population and Housing

Census

Informal Sector Survey

Index of Industrial

Production

Govt Finance Statistics

Agriculture statistics

Data sources for National Accounts

• HBS based Surveys more complete than cross sectional (2002/2003)

• CPI Weights are relatively old

• There is need for comprehensive agriculture surveys

• PHS are not regularly conducted

• Statistical Business Register Update

• Producer Price Index is not yet available

• Trade Indices not available as well

The Quality of NA statistics is more dependent on the quality of basic economic statistics

SUT and the Green Activities

• The CSO SUT incorporates Green Activities.

• In September 2016 ILO and CSO met from which some products were split into green and non-green. A small survey was conduted.

• The environmental (Green) activities are defined as those economic activities whose primary purpose is to reduce or eliminate pressures on the environment or to make more efficient use of natural resources.

• Agriculture

• Manufacturing

• Electricity

• Accommodation & food services.

Industries of focus

Additional information on the industries of focus was collected to facilitate the compilations of SUT with Green products

What are Supply and Use Tables?

➢Supply and Use Tables shows how goods and services are made available in the economy and how they are used.

▪ The Supply table shows domestic production and imports.

▪ The Use table shows intermediate consumption, final

consumption and exports.

Basic SUT Structure

SUPPLY USE

Product

(Row)/Ind

ustry

(Column)

Industries

Imp

ort

s

Val

uat

ion

Industries

FCE

GC

F

Exp

ort

s

P1

P2 Domestic Output

Intermediate

Consumption

P3

.

.

.

P123

Value Added

Components

The Supply Table

Industries Valuation

Industries (Column)

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

Min

ing

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

……

……

….

oth

er s

ervi

ces

Imp

ort

s

TT

Mar

gin

s

Net

Tax

es

Tota

l

Products

(Row)

Maize

Output by product by Industry

Imports

by

Product

Trade and

Transport

Margins

by

Product

Taxes by

Products

Total

Supply

by

Products

Wheat

Copper ore

Meat products

.

.

other services

Total Total Output by IndustryTotal

Imports

Total

margins

Nil

Total Net

Taxes

Total

Supply

• Primary outputs are in the diagonal

• Secondary outputs are off diagonal

The Use Table

IndustriesIndustries

(Column)

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

Min

ing

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

……

.

oth

er s

ervi

ces

Fin

al

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n

Gro

ss C

apit

al

Fo

rmat

ion

Exp

ort

s

Tota

l

Products

(Row)

Maize

Intermediate consumption by product by

industry

Final uses by product and by

category

Total use

by

product

Wheat

Copper ore

Meat products

………

other services

Total Purchasers Price Total intermediate consumption by industry Total Final use by category Total use

Value Added Value added by component by industry

Balancing the SUT

Manual Balancing➢Systematic interrogation of data,

➢Use of justifiable assumptions,

➢Discussions with subject matter specialists,

➢Estimation of missing values using commodity flow, etc.

Automatic Balancing➢CSO used RAS procedure to automatically balance the SUTs for

small imbalances not resolved manually

➢RAS is an iterative mathematical procedures based on proportional allocation of imbalances

Supply Table

Condensed Supply and Use Table

Use Table

Domestic Output + Imports = Intermediate Use+ FCE + GCF + Exports

Product Balance: Total Supply = Total Use

K’ Million Industries Valuation Industries

Product (rows) /

Industry (columns)

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

Min

ing

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

Ser

vice

s

Imp

ort

s

TT

Mar

gin

s

Net

Tax

es

To

tal S

up

ply

at

pu

rch

aser

s p

rice

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

Min

ing

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

Ser

vice

s

FC

E

GC

F

Exp

ort

s, f

ob

To

tal u

se a

t

pu

rch

aser

s p

rice

Agricultural products 15,000 0 0 0 81 3,475 -627 17,928 1,199 0 7,902 9,431 7,060 151 1,286 17,928

Mining products 0 7,912 0 0 4,265 1,395 376 13,947 0 2,816 5,561 9,276 661 808 3,202 13,947

Manufactured products 293 16,240 28,024 5,246 21,162 18,882 4,535 94,381 2,031 4,441 4,542 26,982 26,107 11,387 29,906 94,381

Services 0 1,959 753 66,927 2,148 784 1,087 73,658 2,984 5,697 3,776 28,973 28,278 14,782 1,626 73,658

Trade 0 64 1,004 20,926 0 -21,993 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Freight transport

services0 0 0 4,417 0 -2,542 9 1,884 9 363 61 929 98 0 857 1,884

CIF/FOB adjust 0 0 0 -881 0 -881 0 0 0 0 0 -881 -881

Total 15,292 26,175 29,781 97,515 26,774 0 5,380 200,917 6,223 13,318 21,842 75,591 62,203 27,128 35,995 200,917

VA 93,172

SUT to IOT Transformation

Compilation SUT

• Output

• Imports

• Valuation

• Intermediate consumption

• Final Consumption expenditures

• Capital Formation

• Exports

Balancing SUT

• Manual Balancing

• Automatic Balancing

Transformation

• Prepare the SUT at basic prices

IOT

• Total IOT• Import IOT

• Domestic Supply IOT

• IOT Direct coefficients

• The Leontief Inverse coefficients

Basic Structure of IOT

ProductsAgriculture

Products

Manufacturing

ProductsServices

Final Consumption

Expenditure

Capital

FormationExports Total Use

Agriculture

Products Intermediate consumption by product

and by homogeneous units of

production

Final uses by product and by

categoryManufacturing

Products

Services

Value Added Value Added Components

Imports

Total Supply

Product by Product IOT

➢ Outputs of one industry are used as inputs in another industry or for final consumption or exported

➢ Intermediate demand Quadrant shows intermediate inputs of products used to produce the total output of each product.

➢ Final demand Quadrant presents final use of goods and services supplied by each product and by type of uses, i.e. final consumption, exports and gross capital formation.

➢ Value added Quadrant shows the value of labour inputs and consumption of fixed capital.

Condensed Product-by-Product IOT

K’ Million

Product (Row) Product

(Column) Ag

ricu

ltu

re

Pro

du

cts

Min

ing

Pro

du

cts

Man

uf.

Pro

du

cts

Ser

vice

s

To

tal I

C

FC

E

GC

F

Exp

ort

s, f

ob

To

tal U

se a

t B

P

Agriculture Products 1,017.4 0.0 7,616.0 264.5 8,898.0 4,980.8 94.4 1,107.0 15,080.2

Mining Products 0.0 824.9 4,368.8 765.7 5,959.4 645.8 808.1 3,005.9 10,419.2

Manuf. Products 2,337.6 770.8 9,032.6 13,890.7 26,031.7 12,337.7 7,038.3 28,194.7 73,602.4

Services 3,308.3 2,174.0 10,807.3 17,790.9 34,080.6 40,619.2 18,200.3 4,416.5 97,316.5

Total Basic 6,663.3 3,769.7 31,824.8 32,711.9 74,969.6 58,583.5 26,141.1 36,724.1 196,418.3

Net Taxes -612.1 184.1 364.0 685.4 621.5 3,619.3 986.8 152.1 5,379.7

CIF/FOB Adju 0.0 -881.1 -881.1

Total Purchasers Price 6,051.2 3,953.8 32,188.8 33,397.3 75,591.1 62,202.8 27,127.9 35,995.1 200,916.9

GVA 8,948.3 3,957.9 18,494.6 61,771.0 93,171.9

Total Output at Basic Price 14,999.5 7,911.7 50,683.4 95,168.3 168,762.9

Total Imports CIF 80.7 2,507.5 22,919.1 2,148.3 27,655.6

Total Supply at Basic Price 15,080.2 10,419.2 73,602.5 97,316.5 196,418.5

SUT, IOT, SAM and Models

Data:

National Accounts

and others…

Supply and Use Tables

SUT framework

Transformation

Compilation

IOT

P-by-Por

I-by-I

Social Accounting

Matrix

(SAM)

Calibration and data base for

other

Models

Thank You!

https://www.zamstats.gov.zm/index.php/publicati

ons/category/29-national-accounts

Link to the PDF document and Excel files for the2010 Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables for Zambia

For more informationlitsim@yahoo.co.uk