Surface N balances and reactive N loss from global …...Surface N balances and reactive N loss from global intensive agricultural production systems for the period 1970-2030 Third

Surface N balances and reactive N loss from global intensive

agricultural production systemsfor the period 1970-2030

Third International Nitrogen Conference, Nanjing, 12-16 October 2004

A.F. Bouwman1, G. Van Drecht1 and K.W. Van der Hoek2

1Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency2Laboratory for Environmental MonitoringNational Institute for Public Health and the EnvironmentP.O. Box 1, 3720 BA BilthovenThe Netherlands

NONOyy NN22 NHNH331313

3333

1313 3030

55

175175

4545

2323

2626

88

4343

4545

1414

N DepositionN Fixation, natural N Transfer

8080

3030--300300

Accelerated global N cycle

NN22

UreaNH3

(million ton/yr as N)(million ton/yr as N)

N Fixation, human

0.5 by 0.5 degree grid cell

Upland cropsWetland rice

LegumesGrassland

Inputs-Fertilizer (Nfert)-Animal manure (Nman)-Biological N fixation (Nfix)-Atmospheric deposition (Ndep)

Npot=ΣΣΣΣInputs-Nexp-Nvol

Van Drecht et al. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (2003)Bouwman et al. Pedosphere (in press)

Surface balance approach

Outputs-crop/grass N export (Nexp)Incl. Fodder cropsExcl. residue management

SOIL

Static

appro

ach:

No ∆∆∆∆so

il-N

Nlea

Denitrification and leaching

Nden

N2O

Outputs-crop/grass N export (Nexp)Incl. Fodder cropsExcl. residue management-Ammonia volatilization (Nvol)

Denitrification and leaching

)carbondrainage,texture,soil(climate,lea �=fUpland crops

Wetland rice ƒden = 0.75 (based on measurements)flea = 0.25

(-)

0 - .10.10 - .25.25 - .50.50 - .75.75 - 1.00

Nden = (1-flea) Npot

Nlea = flea Npot

Van Drecht et al. GlobalBiogeochemical Cycles (2003)

World EconomyPopulation

Change in GDP, population, etc.

Land-useemissions

Energy demand & supply (TIMER)

Energy & industry emissions

Land demand, use & cover

Emissions & land-use changes

Carboncycle

Atmosphericchemistry

Concentration changes

Climate(Zonal Climate Model or ECBilt)

Climatic changes

Naturalsystems

AgriculturalImpacts

Water Impacts

Land degradation

Sea levelrise

Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE)

Feedbacks

Impacts

Energy demand & supply


Land demand,use & cover

Land use emissions

Image-team (2001)

FAO WorldAgricultureTowards2030country data

0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution



Land-useemissions





Carboncycle




Climatic changes

Naturalsystems

AgriculturalImpacts

Water Impacts

Land degradation

Sea levelrise


Feedbacks

Impacts




Land use emissions

Image-team (2001)

Intensive agricultureOther landIntensive agriculture 1995





Land-useemissions





Carboncycle




Climatic changes

Naturalsystems

AgriculturalImpacts

Water Impacts

Land degradation

Sea levelrise


Feedbacks

Impacts




Land use emissions

Image-team (2001)



< 0.50.5 - 1.01.0 - 1.51.5 - 2.0> 2.0Other landAnimal densities (ruminants) 1995



Land-useemissions





Carboncycle




Climatic changes

Naturalsystems

AgriculturalImpacts

Water Impacts

Land degradation

Sea levelrise


Feedbacks

Impacts




Land use emissions

Image-team (2001)

NO-N in kg ha-1 yr-1

.0 - 1.01.0 - 2.02.0 - 3.03.0 - 4.04.0 - 5.05.0 - 7.57.5 - 10.

> 10 NO emission 2030






Image-team (2001)



Land-useemissions





Carbon cycle

Atmospheric chemistry


Climate (Zonal Climate Model or ECBilt)

Climatic changes

Naturalsystems

AgriculturalImpacts

Water Impacts

Land degradation

Sea levelrise

Feedbacks

Impacts




Land use emissions

FEEDBACKS

Image-team (2001)

Mixed systemsClose to urban areas, riversFertilizers, different feedstuffsManure storage and application

Pastoral systems and marginal grasslandMore remote from urban areasGrazing mainlyLimited manure storage and application

Upland crops

Wetland riceLegumes

Grassland

IMAGE Production systems

0.5 by 0.5 degreegrid cell

Excluded for better

comparison between

countries

Bouwman et al. Pedosphere (in press)

0

50100

150

200250

300

World agriculture:4900 Mha

World, intensiveagriculture: 2055

Mha

Mto

n/yr

Deposition BNF Manure Fertilizer

IMAGE production systems

050

100150200250300

World agriculture:4900 Mha

World, intensiveagriculture: 2055

Mha

Mto

n/yr

Crops NH3 Denitrification Leaching

Inputs

Outputs

80%

Total agriculture4900 Mha

Intensive agriculture2055 Mha

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Grassland 2030

Arable 2030

Grassland 1995

Arable 1995

Grassland 1970

Arable 1970

Mha

Developing

Industrial

Transition

IMAGE land use projection

Bouwman et al. AgriculturalSystems (2004)

FAO World Agri-culture: Towards2030 projection

For grasslands most production increase in mixed systems

Nearly all arable land expansion for feedproduction Bouwman et al. Agricultural Systems (2004)

Intensive agriculture 1995

Intensive agriculture 2030

Bouwman et al. Agricultural Systems (2004)

Intensive agricultureOther land

Intensive agricultureOther land

Animal densities (ruminants) 2030


< 0.50.5 - 1.01.0 - 1.51.5 - 2.0> 2.0Other land

< 0.50.5 - 1.01.0 - 1.51.5 - 2.0> 2.0Other land

IMAGE land use projection



< 0.50.5 - 1.01.0 - 1.51.5 - 2.0> 2.0Other land

< 0.50.5 - 1.01.0 - 1.51.5 - 2.0> 2.0Other land



< 0.50.5 - 1.01.0 - 1.51.5 - 2.0> 2.0Other land

< 0.50.5 - 1.01.0 - 1.51.5 - 2.0> 2.0Other land

N and P fertilizer use for 1970, 1995 and 2030 1970 1995 2030 N fertilizer use (Mton yr-1 as N) Developing countrie s 9 50 73 Industrialized countries 15 24 30 Transition countries 7 5 6 World 32 79 109 P fertilizer use (Mton yr-1 as P2O5) Developing countrie s 4 19 37 Industrialized countries 12 10 14 Transition countries 5 1 2 World 21 31 52

Surface nutrient balance

FAO World Agriculture Towards 2030:

For allocation:Fertilizer use by crop(FAO/IFA/IFDC, 2003)

Upland crops

Wetland riceLegumes

Grassland

Grazing

Application to grass

Application to crops

Total manure N

Population and excretion rates-Cattle and buffaloes

-Sheep and goats-Horses-Camels

-Pigs-Poultry

Animal houses & storage

NH3

Stored and not used

Other uses (fuel)

Intensive agricultural system

Outside intensive agricultural system

Bouwman et al. Pedosphere (in press)

Surface nutrient balance 1995

72 Mton

104 Mton

32 Mton

kg N ha-1 yr-1

0 - 2020 - 4040 - 6060 - 8080 - 100

100 - 120> 120

N balance upland crops 1995

N fertilizer N manure

N uptake

kg N ha-1 yr-1

0 - 55 - 10

10 - 1515 - 2020 - 2525 - 3030 - 35

> 35

kg N ha-1 yr-1

0 - 2020 - 4040 - 6060 - 8080 - 100

100 - 120> 120

N deposition

STOCHEM Chemistry-transport model

kg N ha-1 yr-1

0 - 2020 - 4040 - 6060 - 8080 - 100

100 - 120> 120

N balance intensive systems 1970

N surplus = total N inputs - crop/grass export

kg N ha-1 yr-1

< 00 - 10

10 - 2020 - 4040 - 8080 - 120

> 120

1970



kg N ha-1 yr-1

< 00 - 10

10 - 2020 - 4040 - 8080 - 120

> 120

1995



kg N ha-1 yr-1

< 00 - 10

10 - 2020 - 4040 - 8080 - 120

> 120

2030

Kg N ha-1yr-1

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Den

mar

k

Finl

and

Fran

ce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Irela

nd

Italy

Net

herla

nds

Nor

way

Por

tuga

l

Spa

in

Sw

eden

Sw

itzer

land

Uni

ted_

Kin

gdom

WE

UR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600N-fertilizer Crop-exportN-manure NH3-volatilizationN-deposition DenitrificationN-fixation Leaching


Surplus for OECD countries were compared with OECD and Eurostat

Western Europe

Can

ada U

SA

Cen

tral_

Am

eric

a

Sou

th_A

mer

ica

Nor

th_A

frica

Wes

tern

_Afri

ca

Eas

tern

_Afri

ca

Sou

ther

n_A

frica

Wes

tern

_Eur

ope

Eas

tern

_Eur

ope

Form

er_U

SS

R

Mid

dle_

Eas

t

Sou

th_A

sia

Eas

t_A

sia

Sou

thea

st_A

sia

Oce

ania

Japa

n

0

50

100

150

200

250N-fertilizer Crop-exportN-manure NH3-volatilizationN-deposition DenitrificationN-fixation Leaching

N balance intensive systems 1995Kg N ha-1yr-1

Surplus for OECD countries were compared with OECD and Eurostat

World regions

Surplus for intensive agricultural area>> total agriculture

N balance 1995

China croplandZhu & Chen Bouwman et al.(2002)-1998 (in press)-1995

(Mton yr-1) INPUTSFertilizer 25 24Manure 5 4Biological fixation 3 3Atm. deposition 2 3Total 36 33

OUTPUTSHarvest 15 13Gaseous loss 12 15Leaching + runoff 2 5Unaccounted for 6 -Total 36 33

Accumulation and retention in subsoil and groundwater

Fertilizer use efficiencyOverall system N recovery

input N manure fertilizer NexportNcrop

FUE+

=

inputsNgrasscropsrecoveryNsystemOverall

�

+=

For wetland rice and upland crops, excluding legumes

Fertilizer, manure, biological N fixation, deposition

Fertilizer use efficiency upland crops 1995

Current N deficit systems may change into systems withsurpluses

%

<4040 - 5050 - 6060 - 7070 - 100

> 100

Fertilizer use efficiency (%) wetland rice + uplandcrops

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Latin America

Transition countries

Western Europe

North America

World 2030

1995

1970

Soil N depletion

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa


Latin America


Western Europe

North America

World 2030

1995

1970

Intensive systems: Overall system N recovery in % of inputs

DIFFERENCES HAVE MANY CAUSES:Soil N depletion Over-fertilizationClimate/soils Wetland riceProductivity LegumesManagement Underestimation of N in harvest

Soil N depletion

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa


Latin America


Western Europe

North America

World 2030

1995

1970



Over-fertilization

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa


Latin America


Western Europe

North America

World 2030

1995

1970



Mix of crops (wetland rice)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa


Latin America


Western Europe

North America

World 2030

1995

1970



Legumes

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa


Latin America


Western Europe

North America

World 2030

1995

1970


DIFFERENCES HAVE MANY CAUSES:Soil N depletion Over-fertilizationClimate/soils Wetland riceProductivity LegumesManagement Underestimation of N in harvestUnderestimation of N in harvest

Intensive systems:N loss in % of inputs

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

World

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa


Latin America


Western Europe

North America

(%)

2030

1995

1970

N loss is complement of system N recovery

0 5 10 15 20

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East & North Africa

Latin America


Western Europe

North America

N loss (Mton/yr)

NH3

NO3

N2O

NO

Intensive systems: Total reactive N loss

NH3 NO3 N2O NO1970 18.1 18.2 2.0 1.11995 34.2 28.5 2.7 1.52030 44.0 35.3 3.5 2.0

1995

World

AcidificationEutrophicationAerosols

0 5 10 15 20

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa


Latin America


Western Europe

North America

N loss (Mton/yr)

NH3

NO3

N2O

NO


NH3 NO3 N2O NO1970 18.1 18.2 2.0 1.11995 34.2 28.5 2.7 1.52030 44.0 35.3 3.5 2.0

1995

World

Groundwater pollutionDisturbance of freshwater and coastal marine systems

0 5 10 15 20

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa


Latin America


Western Europe

North America

N loss (Mton/yr)

NH3

NO3

N2O

NO


NH3 NO3 N2O NO1970 18.1 18.2 2.0 1.11995 34.2 28.5 2.7 1.52030 44.0 35.3 3.5 2.0

1995

World

N2O-N in kg ha-1 yr-1

.0 - 1.01.0 - 2.02.0 - 3.03.0 - 4.04.0 - 5.05.0 - 7.57.5 - 10.

> 10Based on Bouwman et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16 (2002)

Global warmingStratospheric ozone

0 5 10 15 20

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa


Latin America


Western Europe

North America

N loss (Mton/yr)

NH3

NO3

N2O

NO


NH3 NO3 N2O NO1970 18.1 18.2 2.0 1.11995 34.2 28.5 2.7 1.52030 44.0 35.3 3.5 2.0

1995

World

Ozone chemistryAcidificationEutrophication

Concluding remarks

•Considerable improvement of N recovery is possible

•But, differences in reactive N loss and system N recovery reflect a host of factors:-Agro-ecological resources (soils, climate)-Management-Mix of crops (wetland rice, legumes)

•So, recovery and its improvement can not bethe same everywhere

•Current N deficit systems may change intosystems with surpluses

•Concentration of livestock and crop production

Thank you !

Documents

Surface N balances and reactive N loss from global …...Surface N balances and reactive N loss from global intensive agricultural production systems for the period 1970-2030 Third