Survey Design

Models, Questions, Hypotheses

• Model of Vote and VotersVote Choice = Party Identification

+ Issues + National Conditions+ Ideology+ Candidate Traits

• Who supports each party? Who swings? Who is disconnected? And – for each – why?

Hypotheses

• A testable claim or argument.• Example. We can swing at least 2% of the

electorate our way by emphasizing Immigration.• How do we test that?– How does the electorate divide on questions of

immigration?– What % of people care about immigration?– What are their characteristics? How did they vote last

time and why? – Estimate % you can win with immigration: D+I-R, R+I-D

Hypotheses

• Counter arguments– What other issues would you ignore?– What will the other party do? – Would you lose some of your own?– Past election already reflects that division (because

already in the public debate)• Experiments nested in surveys– Divide sample into subsets. Randomly assign treatments.– Each treatment gets a different issue statement– Observe differences across

Tasks

• Candidate and Vote Questions– Candidates: List (names), qualities– Vote: Primary and General 2014; past vote

• Issue Questions Policy (taxes, gay marriage, health care)Valence (war and peace, economy)

• Ideology, party and other questions about Political Orientation– Attitudes toward parties; Approval of Government

• Social Connections and Political Communications• Demographic and other Personal Questions

Assignment

1. Everyone• State one or several Hypotheses about what is important in

this election. Find other survey data that support your suspicions.

• Looking at publicly available sources, find questions to measure each part of your model (Vote, Issues, Party, Cultural Characteristics, etc.). I.e., one question measures vote preference, one question measures party id, etc. Describe how you think the different variables will affect the vote.

• Consult different sources (people-press.org, www.electionstudies.org, gallup.com, pollster.com, realclearpolitics.com)

Assignment #2

2. Working with Your Team develop a battery of questions to measure the variables and factors that are components of the vote model (e.g., vote, party, issue preferences, candidate characteristics and traits, etc.)

THINK CREATIVELYDESIGN MUCH MORE THAN YOU NEEDSELECT THE BEST