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Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion April 19-25, 2016

Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

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Page 1: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Survey of MacedonianPublic Opinion

April 19-25, 2016

Page 2: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Detailed Methodology• The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research

firm (member of Taylor Nelson Sofres and Gallup International) in cooperation with Chariot LLC in San

Francisco, California.

• Data was collected from April 19 to 25, 2016, using in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained

professional interviewers.

• A total of 1,104 interviews were completed, yielding an overall margin of error of plus or minus three

percent at the midrange of the 95-percent confidence level. A nationally representative sample was based

on a multistage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution, with a random selection of

households and respondents. The response rate was 75 percent.

• The sample was prepared using the State Statistical Office data (2002 census results) for the population aged

18 and older. It also considered the structure of the population according to age, gender, education, type of

housing, national affiliation and region while updating accordingly to estimates and primary information,

collected by Brima.

• Stratification was based on three stages: first, the number of respondents for each of region was specified in

proportion to the size of its population aged 18 and older. Second, the sampling plan consisted of 163

sampling points located according to urban/rural split, municipality size and nationality diffusion. Third, the

selection of households was based on a random route method, whereby in urban areas, every third

household on the left-hand side of the street was selected. In rural areas, the wave-wise approach was

applied to select every fourth inhabited house/dwelling on both sides of the interviewer’s route/track,

counting from the first house on the left.

• The next birthday method was used to select respondents 18 years and older.

• Figures in charts and tables may not add to 100 percent due to rounding error.

• This poll was conducted with support from the United States Agency for International Development.

Page 3: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

The Political Situation in Macedonia

Page 4: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

How would you describe the current internal political situation in Macedonia?

4

23%

44% 53% 54%

51%

56%

44%

28%

48%

42%

40% 39%

44%

39%42%

15%

29%

19%

5%

61%

43% 36% 36%

38%35%

43%

55%

41% 43%

45% 45%

41%

46%43%

61%

51%

59%

55%

13%

10%8%

7% 7% 6%10%

15%

9%13% 13% 12%

9%12% 12%

23%

16% 19%

38%

3% 3% 4% 3% 4%

3%

3% 2% 2%3% 3% 4%

6%4% 4% 2%

4%3%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Peaceful and Stable Intense and UncertainCritical and Unstable Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 5: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Is the Republic of Macedonia more or less stable today than it was one year ago?

5

21%

26%

33%30%

24%21% 22%

27%25%

14%

19%

18%

21%23% 22%

18% 16%

5%

18%15%

5%

35%

25% 17%23%

24%

17% 19% 18%20%

43%

26%29% 28%

33%

27%31%

31%

58%

42%

47%

67%

43%46% 47% 46%

51%

60%58%

54% 54%

42%

54%53%

50%

43%45%

47%51%

35%38%

35%

25%

1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3%5% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

More Less Same Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 6: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Overall, is Macedonia moving in the right or wrong direction?

6

28%

38%34%

32%

25% 24%26%

29%31%

23%19%

22%

27%

31%

39%

36%

29%

23%24%

28%

20%

33%

28%

31%

33%36%

38%40%

29%

32%

45%43%

48%

44%41%

33%

39% 39%

48% 48%

46%

58%

37%

32%33%

33%38%

36% 32%

40%

35%

31%

36%

30%

27%

26%27%

24%

31%

28% 26%

24%

21%

1% 2% 3% 2% 1%3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1%

2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1%2% 3% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Right Direction Wrong Direction Neutral Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 7: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

In your opinion, what are the two most serious problems facing Macedonia today?(Open-Ended)

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

10%

12%

13%

12%

17%

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

3%

3%

5%

7%

10%

26%

27%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Security crisis, peace, stability,war, terrorism

Law and order, rule of law

Poor performance of the currentgovernment

The current protests

Immigration/youth

High prices

Crime

Corruption

Low or non-payment of salary orpension

Economic crisis and financial crisis

Poverty, low standard of living,problems of common people

General/current politicalsituation/the political crisis

Unemployment

First Mention Second Mention

6%

44%

38%

23%

19%

14%

9%

8%

4%

4%

3%

3%

3%

7

Page 8: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you support or do not support President Ivanov’s decision to pardon all politicians and their associates against whom there are judicial investigations in regards to the political

crisis and the wiretapping?

8

9%

14%

11%

53%

12%

I completely support it

I somewhat support it

I somewhat do not support it

I completely do not support it

Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 9: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Should the politicians who were pardoned by the President about deeds connected to the political crisis and the

wiretapping be eligible or not be eligible to be candidates for MPs in the upcoming parliamentary elections?

9

12%

70%

18%Yes, they should be eligible

No, they should not beeligible

Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 10: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

A special public prosecutor, Katica Janeva, was appointed to investigate cases connected to the wiretapped conversations mentioned previously. Do you think that Ms. Janeva will be able to investigate these cases independently and without

obstruction?

10

33%

28%

22%

18%

27%

44%

13%

17%

38%35%

7%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Yes No I have not heard ofthis appointment

Don’t know/Refused to answer

October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 11: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you support the work of the Special Public Prosecutor for the resolution of the wiretapping

scandal?

11

42%

21%

9%

17%

12%

I completely support it

I somewhat support it

I somewhat do not support it

I completely do not support it

Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 12: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Some people think that the conditions for free and fair elections in Macedonia(including cleaning the voter list, increasing the capacity of the State ElectionCommission, and establishing regulations reducing political interference in themedia) have been met and because of this elections should take place on June 5;while others think that these conditions have not been met and because of this theelections should be postponed until the conditions are fulfilled.Which is closer to your opinion?

12

45%

39%

16%

47%

38%

15%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Elections should take place onJune 5

Elections should be postponed Don't know/Refused to answer

January 2016 April 2016

Note: Data taken for January 2016 relates to proposed April 24, 2016 election date.

Page 13: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections expected on June 5, 2016?*

13

52%

22%

8% 7%5% 6%

39%

19%

9%11% 10%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhatunlikely

Very unlikely Would not vote Don't know/Refused to

answer

January 2016 April 2016

* In January, the question was phrased “How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections expected on April 24, 2016?”

Page 14: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections expected on June 5, 2016?

31%

40%

46%

22%

18%

16%

7%

11%

8%

8%

12%

13%

16%

8%

7%

16%

11%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Age 18-34

Age 35-54

Age 55+

Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely

Very unlikely Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer

14

Page 15: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you think there are conditions in the country to hold free and fair elections?

63%

59%

48%

30%

35%

45%

7%

6%

7%

October 2015

January 2016

April 2016

Definitely Yes / Probably Yes Definitely No / Probably No Don't know

15

Page 16: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

As you may know, a credible voter list should contain all eligible voters in the country and not have any ineligible or

duplicate voters in it. How confident are you in the accuracy of the voter list in Macedonia?

16

17%

29%

21%

24%

9%

12%

31%

27%

17%

13%15%

26%

23%

26%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

I am veryconfident

I am somewhatconfident

I am not thatconfident

I am notconfident at all

Don’t know/Refused to

answer

October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 17: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you think that state institutions are capable of sufficiently addressing any irregularities, should they

occur, on Election Day?

17

39%

35%

17%

10%

40%

33%

18%

9%

38%

32%

21%

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Yes, they are capable No, they are notsufficiently capable

No, they are notcapable at all

Don't know

October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 18: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

What institution do you think is most responsible to ensure the elections will be free, democratic and with no

irregularities?

18

33%

25%

20%

11%

2%

11%

51%

13%

17%

7%

2%

10%

43%

17% 18%

9%

2%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

State ElectionCommission

Ministry ofInternal

Affairs/Police

TheGovernment

Political Parties The Judiciary Don’t know/Refused to

answer

October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 19: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

To what degree did you trust the following according to their actions in the last 12 months?

19

16%

20%

20%

21%

23%

25%

26%

27%

27%

30%

33%

49%

52%

43%

52%

54%

46%

44%

53%

43%

52%

40%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Political Parties

State Commissionfor Prevention of Corruption

Media

Courts

The Assembly

Public Prosecution

State Election Commission

The Government

Ministries

The President

Special Public Prosecution

I Trust Them/I Fully Trust Them

I Have No Trust/I Have No Trust at All

Page 20: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you believe that your vote on Election Day is secret?

20

69%

39%

66%71%

62%66%

61%

23%

49%

27%

22%

31%

23%

28%

8%13%

7% 7% 7%11%

11%

Feb-14 May-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Yes No Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 21: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Who do you think violates the secrecy of your vote?

Those who think that their vote on election day is not secret, n=309

21

19%

1%

6%

1%

6%

6%

19%

43%

20%

2%

8%

0%

5%

1%

12%

12%

39%

18%

0%

3%

1%

7%

1%

17%

15%

38%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don't Know/Refused to Answer

The Police

State Election Commission

DPA

DUI

SDSM

VMRO-DPMNE

The Government

Political Parties, All of Them

April-16

January-16

October-15

Page 22: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Have you or has a member of your family, relative or someone you know personally ever been subject to pressure, such as force, threats,

vote-buying or other illegal means, to vote in a particular way?

22

18%

3%

72%

7%

17%

5%

75%

3%

15%

7%

72%

7%

18%

4%

74%

4%

24%

5%

67%

5%

19%

5%

71%

5%

24%

4%

67%

5%

19%

3%

70%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

I Personally Know PeopleWho Were Subjected to

Pressure

I Was PersonallySubjected to Pressure

I Was Neither Subjectedto Pressure nor Know

People Who Were

Don't Know/Refused to Answer

February 2014 May 2014 September 2014 December 2014

June 2015 October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

In Feb. 2014 responses refer to 2011, 2013 and 2014 elections. In May 2014 responses refer to 2014 elections

Page 23: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Has Nikola Gruevski done his job well enough to deserve re-election?

59%

61%

54%

56%

54%

66%

61% 61%

51%

45%47%

45%43%42%

39%

36%

39%41%

44%

40%

37%

32%

35%38%

33%

23%

24%

30%

27%

33%

22%

27%

25%

38%

40% 39%

31%

40%

48%48%

53%

44%46%

38%

45%48%

55%

52%

47%

55%

18%15% 16%

17%

14%

12%

12%

15%

11%

15%

14%

23% 17%

11%

13%

11%

17%

13%

18%15%

15%

13%

13%

15%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Yes No Don't Know/Refused to Answer

23

Page 24: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Euro Atlantic Orientation Prevails

Page 25: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Macedonia’s interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with:

25

16%

24%

29%

26%

33%

39%

30%

29%

29%

37%

37%

34%

14%

12%

14%

12%

9%

9%

23%

23%

17%

12%

10%

9%

17%

13%

11%

13%

11%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

China

Russia

America

Turkey

Germany

European Union

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

Page 26: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

According to you, which one of these countries helps Macedonia’s national interests the most?

26

13%

5%

19%

1%

7%

10%

11%

12%

22%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Don't know

All of them

Neither

China

Germany

United States of America

Russia

Turkey

European Union

Page 27: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you support Macedonia becoming a member of the EU?

27

96%94% 93% 92%

95%93%

96%94% 92% 90%

87%84%

76%72% 72%

76%80%

72% 72% 71%

3% 4% 5% 7%4%

6%4%

6%7% 9% 9%

12%

19% 20%23%

20%

14%

22% 22% 23%

1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%4% 4% 6%

8%5% 4%

6%6%

6%7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Yes No Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 28: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

In how many years do you think Macedonia will become a member of the EU?

28

17%

18%

25%

23%

18%

16%

17%

21%

25%

21%

14%

18%

27%

25%

16%

Don't KnowNo Answer

Never

More Than10

6-10

1-5

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

1-5 years

6-10 years

More Than 10 years

Never

Don't Know/

Refused to Answer

Page 29: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you think Macedonia is closer to EU entry today, or was it closer when it got its EU candidate member

status?

29

32%

39%

32%28%

21%25% 24%

18%

45%

34%

43% 44%

51% 50% 50%

56%

23%

27%25%

28%

28%26% 26% 26%

Feb-14 May-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Closer Today

When It Got the Status of EU Candidate Country

Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 30: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

According to you, what is the reason for the slowdown in Macedonia’s EU integration?

30

3%

11%

17%

28%

41%

2%

9%

15%

27%

47%

0%

9%

15%

28%

45%

2%

11%

16%

23%

48%

Other

Don't Know/Refused to

Answer

New ConditionsSet by the EU

Lack ofDomesticReforms

The NameIssue

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

June 2015 October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 31: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you support Macedonia becoming a member of NATO?

31

92%90% 90% 89%

94% 92%94%

91%89% 89%

91%87%

85%

78% 77%

83% 83%

74%76%

73%

5%8% 8% 9%

6% 7%5%

8%10% 10%

6%9%

11%

16% 15%13% 12%

19% 18%20%

3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%1% 2%

2%3%

4% 4% 6% 7%4% 5%

7% 7% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Yes No Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 32: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Given its capacities, how do you feel the Macedonian government has handled the refugee crisis?

32

11%

5%

14%

9%

35%

27%

5%

4%

16%

10%

37%

28%

12%

7%

16%

11%

34%

21%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Refuse to answer/Don't know

I am not aware of the current refugee crisis

It is not providing sufficient support to therefugees

It is providing some support, but needs to domore for the refugees

It is providing sufficient support to the refugees

It is providing too much support to the refugees

October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 33: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

In your opinion, how is the European Union’s handling of the refugee crisis affecting Macedonia?

33

16%

46%

21%

17%

10%

59%

18%

13%10%

54%

19%17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Positively Negatively It Has No Effect Don't know/Refused to answer

October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 34: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Citizens’ Everyday Concerns and Economic Issues

Page 35: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Speaking personally, is your overall quality of life…?

35

19%22%

20%

19%

15%13%

16% 16%14%

17%

13%15%

13%

17%15%

13% 12%11%

14%

18%

13%

49%

54% 53%

48%50% 49% 48%

50%48%

45%47% 47% 48%

51%53%

47%

53% 52%50%

45% 44%

31%

24%26%

32%35%

37% 36%

33%

37%

38%

40%

37%

39%

31% 32%

38%

34%

37%

36% 37%

42%

1% 0% <1% 1% 0% 1% <1% 1% <1% 0% 0% <1% 1% 0% 1% <1% 0% <1% 1% 1% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Getting Better Staying the Same Getting Worse Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 36: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

How is your family’s economic situation compared with one year ago?

36

20%

18%20% 21%

16%

12%14%

16%

13% 13%11%

14% 13% 14%15% 16%

14% 13% 14%

20%

15%

33%

32% 32%

35%42%

44% 43%41%

42%

45% 46%

42%

44%

34%32%

30%

32%

35%

33%

35%

35%

45%

50%48%

44%42%

44%43% 44%

45%

43% 43%

44%

43%

51%53% 54% 54%

51%

52%

45%

50%

1% <1%<1% 0% 0% 0% <1% 0% 0% 0% <1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Much or Somewhat Better Much or Somewhat Worse

Same Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 37: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

In the next two years, will the Macedonian economy get better, get worse or stay the same?

37

38%

50%

43%

33%

29%

31%30%31%

34%

29%

23% 28%

25% 25% 26%21%

23%

19% 20%

26%

21%

35%

29%

36%

29%

30%

29%30%

37%

30%32%

36%

34%

34%

40% 40%

44%43% 43%

39%

33%

32%

19%

15%15%

31%

37%35% 35%

28% 30%

35%37%

33%

35%

30%29% 29% 29% 29%

33%

32%

35%

9%

6%

6% 7%4% 5% 5% 4%

5%4% 4% 4%

6%5% 6%

7%5%

9% 9%10%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Better Same Worse Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 38: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

In your opinion, has unemployment increased or decreased over the last year?

38

58%54%

50%53%

61%

71%

76%75%

72%

71%74%75%

71%67%

52%

44%46%

55%

50%46%

49%

44%

30%

38% 37%34%

29%23%

17%19%21% 21%

19%19%24%

27%39%

43%42%

35%39%

45% 41%41%

12%8%

13% 13%10%

6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 5% 6% 7%9%

13% 12%10% 11% 9% 10%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Increased Decreased Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 39: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

According to you, does the government have an effective plan to address the economic problems

Macedonia is facing?

39

41% 40% 38% 38% 38%34%

32%

37% 36% 37%

45%

34%

38%

33% 32%

36%33%

42%

46%49% 49% 49%

56%59%

56%

51% 50%

42%

52%50%

58% 57%

53% 54%

18%14%

13% 13% 13%

10% 10%8%

13% 12% 13% 14% 12%9%

11% 11%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Yes No Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 40: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

How would you place your views on this scale?

1 means you agree completely with the statement on the left; 7 means you agree completely with the statement on the right; and if your views fall somewhere in between, you can choose any number in

between.

40

21% 24% 51% 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Support more foreign

investments and

companies (1+2+3)

Don’t

know

In between

(4)

Support more domestic

investments and companies (5+6+7)

Page 41: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Using the scale in Macedonian schools, from one to five (one being the least important and five being the most

important), how important are each of these issues in your daily life?

41

3.8

4.6 4.64.8 4.8 4.7 4.8

4.5

3.7

4.7 4.7 4.6 4.74.8 4.8 4.8

3.7

4.7 4.7 4.6 4.64.8 4.8 4.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

EUMembership

PoliticalStability

ReducingCorruption

LowerTaxes

Employment LowerPrices

Security HigherWages

October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 42: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

For some people some types of personal security are more important than others. How important is each of

the following types of personal security to you?

42

54%

73%

88%

96%

97%

12%

4%

4%

3%

2%

33%

22%

7%

1%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Social Aid

Job Security

PensionInsurance

Physical Security

Health Insurance

Very Important/Important Very Unimportant/Unimportant Not applicable

Page 43: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Regardless of how you answered the previous question, can you tell me if the security of each of the following is getting worse, is the same, or is getting better for

you personally?

43

5%

7%

10%

13%

15%

27%

39%

57%

47%

57%

19%

23%

30%

23%

25%

40%

26%

2%

13%

1%

8%

4%

2%

4%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Social Aid

Job Security

Physical Security

Pension Insurance

Health Insurance

Better Same Worse Not Applicable Don't know

Page 44: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

When was life better for you, today or before the breakup of Yugoslavia?

44

19%22% 20% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 23% 22%

27%24%

21%24%

26%24%

22%24%

70%67%

70% 68% 69%67%

70%68% 70%

67%69%

64% 64% 63%60% 60%

62%64%

57%

12%12% 10% 11% 9%12%

8%10% 8% 10% 9% 9%

12%

16% 16%14% 14% 14%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Today Before breakup Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 45: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government

or a prosperous economy?

45

38%

15%16%

22%

9%

41%

14% 15%

25%

6%

28%

13%

20%

32%

7%

33%

14%

21%

27%

6%

32%

15%

18%

27%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Democracy isDefinitely MoreImportant to Me

Democracy isSomewhat MoreImportant to Me

Prosperity isSomewhat MoreImportant to Me

Prosperity isDefinitely MoreImportant to Me

Don't Know/Refused to Answer

December 2014 June 2015 October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 46: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you think that free speech and the free expression of ideas exists in Macedonia today?

46

48%49%

48% 48%

42%

45%

38%

44%46%

45%46% 47% 46%

43%

49%48%

55%

51%

48%51%

6%4%

6%9% 10%

7% 7%5% 6% 5%

Dec-10 Nov-12 Feb-14 May-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Yes No Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 47: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of

young people.”

47

69%

23%

8%

68%

24%

8%

63%

29%

7%

64%

29%

7%

60%

33%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Agree Disagree Don't Know/Refused to Answer

December 2014 June 2015 October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 48: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of

women.”

48

52%

36%

12%

50%

37%

14%

49%

39%

12%

49%

42%

9%

47%

39%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Agree Disagree Don't Know/Refused to Answer

December 2014 June 2015 October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 49: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to

support?

49

16%

23%

59%

2%

12%

19%

69%

1%

14%17%

66%

3%

12% 13%

73%

2%

9%

18%

72%

1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Man Woman Makes No Difference toMe

Don't Know/Refused to Answer

December 2014 June 2015 October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 50: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Media

Page 51: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

What is your primary source of political news?

51

90%

5%

12%15%

2%

19%

90%

4%

13%

18%

3%

23%

87%

7%

16%

23%

4%

23%

89%

8%12%

27%

4%

35%

88%

7%

13%

30%

5%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Television Radio Print Media Family/Friends

Political Parties Internet/Web Pages

December 2014 June 2015 October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Multiple Responses

Page 52: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Which television station do you watch most often for political news?

52

2%

3%

5%

6%

10%

12%

13%

23%

24%

1%

1%

5%

4%

8%

10%

14%

28%

22%

1%

2%

5%

6%

10%

13%

13%

20%

21%

MTV (Albanian Language)

Alfa

MTV (Macedonian Language)

Do Not Watch TV

Telma

24 Vesti

Kanal 5

SITEL

Alsat M

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

April 2016

January 2016

October 2015

Page 53: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Do the following TV stations favor or do not favor a particular political party?

53

2%

53%

7%

69%

47%

7%

3%

31%

1%

1%

18%

0%

2%

3% 19%

11%

23%

6%

15%

49%

31%

35%

22%

33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Alsat-M

Kanal 5

Telma

Sitel

MTV

VMRO-DPMNE SDSM DUI DPA Not in favor of any party Don't know

Page 54: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Which daily newspaper do you read most often for political news?

54

1%

1%

2%

4%

4%

6%

7%

9%

63%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

4%

8%

8%

66%

1%

2%

1%

3%

4%

4%

7%

7%

67%

Nova Makedonija

Utrinski Vesnik

Vecer

Sloboden Pecat

Lajme

Vest

Dnevnik

Koha

Do Not Read Newspapers

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

April 2016

January 2016

October 2015

Page 55: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Which weekly newspaper do you read most often for political news?

55

1%

2%

5%

90%

1%

3%

5%

87%

1%

3%

5%

88%

1%

3%

5%

85%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Kapital

Republika

Fokus

Do Not Read Weekly Newspapers

April 2016

January 2016

October 2015

June 2015

Page 56: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

To what level do you agree with the statement? “Government advertising in the media

negatively affects press freedom.”

56

15%

18%

22%

25%

26%

29%

14%

17%

21%

16%

18%

17%

36%

32%

26%

26%

23%

22%

11%

9%

10%

9%

10%

8%

11%

7%

8%

9%

11%

10%

13%

16%

14%

15%

12%

14%

May 2014

September 2014

December 2014

October 2015

January 2016

April 2016

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Completely Agree Somewhat Agree Neither Agree nor Disagree

Somewhat Disagree Completely Disagree Don't Know/Refused to Answer

Page 57: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Political Parties and Elections

Page 58: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

To which political party do you belong or would you consider joining?

58

24%

12%

6%

4%

2%

4%

2%3%

16%

27%

23%

15%

6%

3%

1%

6%

2%

4%

18%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

VMRO-DPMNE

SDSM DUI DPA NDR Other Undecided BESA Would NotJoin

NoAnswer/

Refused toAnswerJanuary 2016 April 2016

Page 59: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

(If all parties participate), for which party would you vote if parliamentary elections were held today?

59

22%

31%

16%

4%

6%

2%

7%

3%

5%

7%

23%

27%

18%

3%

6%

1%

7%

4% 4%

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

January 2016 April 2016

Page 60: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Which party, in your opinion, is most active in your village/town/city?

60

47%

7%

11%

2%

2%

2%

1%

14%

2%

13%

45%

6%

10%

2%

2%

2%

0%

15%

2%

17%

42%

9%

3%

1%

1%

1%

14%

3%

17%

45%

11%

9%

3%

1%

0%

13%

1%

15%

VMRO-DPMNE

SDSM

DUI

DPA

GROM

NDR

BESA

None

Other

Don't Know/Refused toAnswer

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

April 2016

January 2016

October 2015

June 2015

Page 61: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Which party, in your opinion, works the hardest to get your support?

61

30%

13%

6%

3%

2%

1%

28%

3%

14%

32%

9%

5%

3%

2%

1%

30%

3%

15%

27%

10%

2%

1%

2%

31%

3%

18%

27%

13%

7%

3%

1%

2%

33%

2%

11%

VMRO-DPMNE

SDSM

DUI

DPA

BESA

NDR

None

Other

Don't Know/Refused to Answer

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

June 2015 October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 62: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

62

Using the scale used in Macedonian schools, what grade would you give for the overall performance of … ?

2.17

1.87

2.73

1.79

1.91

2.12

1.87

2.36

1.74

2.54

1.6

1.9

1.992.04

2.21

2.29

1.65

2.58

1.57

1.84

2.021.92

1.87

2.16

1.79

2.7

1.77 1.8

1.95 2.021.98

2.26

1.72

2.48

1.66

1.82

1.961.89

1.84

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

SDSM DUI VMRO-DPMNE DPA NSDP DOM NDR BESA

December 2014 June 2015 October 2015 January 2016 April 2016

Page 63: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

63

Using the scale used in Macedonian schools, what grade would you give for the overall performance of … ?

2.6

8

2.1

1

2.7

5

2.8

8

2.4

1 2.5

1

2.5

2

2.5

2.2

9

2.4

9 2.5

9

2.1

5

2.4

2.2

6

2.5

5

2.2

8

2.5

9 2.7

2.3

1

2.5

1

2.3

4

2.67

2.19

2.7

2.86

2.42

2.8

2.442.45

2.29

2.432.38

2.21

2.48

2.28

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

Government Opposition (Former) PrimeMinister

President Parliament Media President ofParliament

December-14 June-15 October-15 January-16 April-16

Page 64: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

64

When you think about people in public political life, who is the one person in Macedonia that you view most favorably?

(Open-Ended)

1%

2%

3%

1%

4%

4%

5%

18%

45%

1%

2%

2%

2%

4%

4%

8%

23%

35%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

4%

9%

21%

38%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Zijadin Sela

Rufi Osmani

Branko Crvenkovski

Menduh Thaci

Gjorge Ivanov

Ali Ahmeti

Zoran Zaev

Nikola Gruevski

None

April 2016

January 2016

October 2015

Page 65: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

34% 34% 33%

19%17%

12% 11% 11%

49%

-58% -55% -55% -54%

-64%

-72% -72%

-36% -37%

-24%-21% -22%

-35%

-47%

-61% -61%

-25%

12%

-75%

-55%

-35%

-15%

5%

25%

45%

Gjorge Ivanov

NikolaGruevski

ZoranZaev

LiljanaPopovska

TitoPetovski

AliAhmeti

MenduhThaci

BillalKasami

KaticaJaneva

65

I will read you a list of public figures in Macedonia. Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorableopinion of that person. If you have never heard of that person please just say so…

Page 66: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

66

Why do you support the party you vote for; is it because it can help you or your family personally or do you support it because you believe it is the best for the country as a whole?

6%

49%

10%

14%

21%

Because it can help me or my familypersonally

Because I believe it is the best for thecountry as a whole

Both at the same time

I do not vote

Don't know

Page 67: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

67

Why do you support the party you vote for; is it because you identify with this party or do you support this party because you think they are the best choice for Macedonia right now?

7%

47%

11%

14%

22%

Because I identify with that party

Because I think that party is the best choiceright now

Both at the same time

I do not vote

Don't know

Page 68: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

68

What do you consider to be the most important characteristic of a political leader?

Multiple responses

5%

13%

14%

14%

15%

22%

29%

34%

35%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Don't Know

Trustworthy

Hardworking

Consistent political views

Visionary

Qualified/Competent

Understands the problems of the people

Honest

Responsible/Fulfills promises

Page 69: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Demographics

Page 70: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Demographics

4%

1%

2%

3%

26%

64%

32%

36%

33%

50%

50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Other

Serbian

Roma

Turkish

Albanian

Macedonian

55-65+

35-54

18-34

Male

FemaleETH

NIC

ITY

AG

EG

EN

DER

70

Page 71: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

Demographics

24%

51%

21%

4%

29%

21%

21%

22%

7%

1%

23%

3%

9%

7%

9%

19%

23%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Higher Education/University

Secondary

Elementary

None/Incomplete Elementary

Don't know/Refused to Answer

27001 Denars or More

18001-27000 Denars

9001-18000 Denars

0-9000 Denars

Other

Blue Collar Worker

Agricultural

White Collar Worker

Professional

Housewife

Retired

Unemployed

Student

ED

UCATIO

NH

OU

SEH

OLD

IN

CO

ME

(MO

NTH

LY)

OCCU

PATIO

N

71

Page 72: Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion - IRIDetailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member

www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls

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