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Thursday, August 21, 2014 For Private Circulation Only
MAJOR CURRENCIES Currency Expiry High Low Close Change
USDINR Spot 60.88 60.515 60.61 -0.06
USDINR Aug 60.9725 60.6175 60.7225 -0.06
EURINR Spot 80.89 80.42 80.48 -0.37
EURINR Aug 81.305 81.0925 81.135 -0.48
GBPINR Spot 100.613 100.461 100.479 -0.10
GBPINR Aug 101.77 101.0975 101.1575 -0.06
JPYINR Spot 58.46 58.28 58.33 -0.07
JPYINR Aug 59.46 59.185 59.2225 -0.43
News & Development
The U.S. dollar hit fresh multi-month highs against a basket of
major currencies on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal
Reserve's July policy meeting signaled the potential for an earlier-
than-expected hike in interest rates.
The Fed has been surprised by how quickly the U.S. labor market is
healing but does not want to bring forward a planned rate hike
until the recovery looks more convincing, the minutes showed.
The minutes showed many members of the Fed's policy-setting
committee thought the characterization that there was
"significant" slack in the labor market "might have to change
before long."
US DOLLAR INDEX
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket
of six major currencies, hit a fresh 11-month high of 82.277.
USDINR
The Indian rupee rose to a near three-week high against the dollar on
Wednesday on the back of strong foreign investor buying in the debt
market, although greenback demand from importers and a fall in
shares limited further gains. The gains in the rupee came on a day
when government bonds rallied amid speculation that foreign portfolio
investors were active buyers, especially in 5-8 year debt
Outlook
USDINR may trade on the positive note the Federal Reserve's July
policy meeting signaled the potential for an earlier-than-expected hike
in interest rates.
MAJOR INDICES Index Close Change % Change
DJIA 16979 59.54 0.35%
NASDAQ 4041 0.57 0.01%
DAX 9315 -19.71 -0.21%
FTSE 6755 -23.83 -0.35%
HANGSN 25160 36.81 0.15%
NIKKIE 15454 4.66 0.03%
SENSEX 26314 -106.38 -0.40%
DOLLEX 82.23 0.34 0.42%
Investments (EQUITY) - 20th Aug, 2014 (In Rs. Crores)
BUY SELL Net Investment
FII 3505.89 3254.53 251.36
DII 1437.22 1918.59 -481.37
Technical Outlook
USDINR Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Aug Buy @ S1 60.52 60.62 60.72 60.86 61.01
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Source: Reuters & Sushil Research
Page 2
CURRENCY DAILY
EURINR
German two-year debt yields held close to 15-month lows just below
zero on Wednesday, with record low money market rates and
expectations of easier ECB monetary policy underpinning demand at an
auction of similarly dated bonds.
Data last week showing the euro zone economy stagnated in the second
quarter even before the impact of sanctions imposed on and by Russia
over the conflict in Ukraine cemented expectations European Central
Bank interest rates would stay ultra-low for a long time.
Outlook
We expect EURINR to trade on the mixed note on the back endless
stimulus hopes. Conversely, the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting
signaled the potential for an earlier-than-expected hike in interest rates
is likely to add pressure on the INR.
Technical Outlook
EURINR Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Aug Sideways 80.45 80.60 81.13 80.90 81.07
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Source: Reuters & Sushil Research
GBPINR
Sterling rebounded from four-month lows against the dollar on
Wednesday after Bank of England minutes showed two policymakers
voted for an interest rate hike in August, catching many investors by
surprise.
Bank of England policymakers Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty both
voted this month to start raising interest rates, becoming the first
officials on the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to do
so in more than three years
Outlook
We expect GBPINR to trade on the positive note two policymakers
voted for an interest rate hike in August, catching many investors by
surprise.
Technical Outlook
GBPINR Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Aug Buy @ S1 100.50 100.7 101.15 101.30 101.65
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Source: Reuters & Sushil Research
Page 3
CURRENCY DAILY
DATE TIME (IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT
Thu, Aug 21 12:30pm EU French Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.9 47.8 High
Thu, Aug 21 12:30pm EU French Flash Services PMI 50.3 50.4 Medium
Thu, Aug 21 1:00pm EU German Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.8 52.4 High
Thu, Aug 21 1:00pm EU German Flash Services PMI 55.5 56.7 Medium
Thu, Aug 21 1:30pm EU Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.8 Medium
Thu, Aug 21 1:30pm EU Flash Services PMI 53.6 54.2 Medium
Thu, Aug 21 2:00pm UK Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.10% High
Thu, Aug 21 2:00pm UK Public Sector Net Borrowing 10.1B 9.5B Medium
Thu, Aug 21 6:00pm US Unemployment Claims 299K 311K High
Thu, Aug 21 7:15pm US Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.7 55.8 Medium
Thu, Aug 21 7:30pm US Existing Home Sales 5.01M 5.04M High
Thu, Aug 21 7:30pm US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 20.3 23.9 High
Thu, Aug 21 Day 1 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium Medium
Source: Forex Factory
For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000
Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal
Sr. Research Analyst [email protected]
Research Analyst [email protected]
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