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Sustainability, Economic Growth, and Technology
Pramod P. KhargonekarUniversity of Florida
Key Questions
• Can we raise the standard of living of the world population to an acceptable level and achieve sustainability?
• What are the limits to economic growth from sustainability constraints?
• What is the required economic growth to sustain full employment?
• Overarching question: Is it possible to have full employment, high quality of life, and sustainable development?
• Can we contribute usefully to these questions?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 1000 1250 1500 1750 1800 1850 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100 2150
6.06B
World Population (Billions)
0.31B
1B
Source: A. Maddison, www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal‐file_03‐2009.xls
Source: A
. Maddison, W
orld Econo
my, 2007
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
World GDP per capita (1 – 2003)
Exponential growth starting with industrial revolution
1820
Population Growth
Source: U
N: W
orld Pop
ulation to 2300
Today’s graduates will shape the world in 2050
Emerging economies have much higher energy intensity relative to advanced economies
Energy use today is largely from unsustainable sources
What will happen if Asia and North America equalize their per capita resource consumption?
Is there a “systems” oriented explanation of this chart? How does one move northwest?
A hopeful sign
Environmental Kuznets Curvehttp://phe
.rockefeller.e
du/new
s/wp‐conten
t/up
loads/20
09/04/sulfu
rdioxide
kuznetscurveusa.pd
f
Some evidence that pollutiondecreases as incomes increase beyond a certain point but
Regulatory policies play an important role
K. Dutt
Essentially static analysis. Would dynamic modeling/analysis reveal more linkages?
Economic Growth• Mainstream view: Economic growth is highly desirable –
synonymous with progress– Technology leads to productivity increase– Income growth leads to improved nutrition, health, education
…– Even if population is constant, economic growth is necessary to
maintain full employment due to rising productivity– Economic growth requires consumption growth– Consumption = Population x Consumption/capita
• Advanced economies have achieved enormous economic growth in the last 250 years leading to dramatic improvement in the quality of life overall
• High economic growth needed in emerging and poor nations to raise their quality of life.
Current Reality
• Post 2008‐09 world• Simultaneous economic and environmental crises– High unemployment in many parts of the world– Global warming and environmental stress– Rising food and energy prices
• Globalization and interconnected world– Competing socio‐economic priorities
• Opportunity to rethink the future
Economic Stagnation
“rising intolerance and incivility and the eroding generosity and openness that have marked important aspects of American society in the recent past have been, in significant part, a consequence of the stagnation of American middle‐class living standards during much of the last quarter of the twentieth century.”
‐ B. Friedman, Moral Consequences of
Economic Growth
Economic Growth and Sustainability
How can economic growth imperatives and sustainability be harmonized?
Is this possible?
What are the “system” level constraints and trade‐offs?
A sociological + economic + technological + political
global problem
Zero Growth
• “There is no reason at all why capitalism could not survive with slow or even no growth. I think it’s perfectly possible that economic growth cannot go on at its current rate forever … it is possible that the US and Europe will find that…either continued growth will be too destructive to the environment and they are too dependent on scarce natural resources, or that they would rather use increasing productivity in the form of leisure . . . . There is nothing intrinsic in the system that says it cannot exist happily in a stationary state.”
‐ Robert Solow
Rethink Growth Macroeconomics• Compelling evidence that increasing consumption does not
increase happiness• Full employment and fair distribution of incomes critically
important • GDP is a poor measure of overall societal prosperity
– Bhutan is considering GNH• J. Stiglitz and A. Sen commission report
“In the quest to increase GDP, we may end up with a society in which most citizens have become worse off … but the standard GDP measure not only does that but also takes no account of resource depletion and environmental degradation. ”
[http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/95b492a8‐a095‐11de‐b9ef‐00144feabdc0.html#axzz1PZ3c7j7c]
Possible Ideas• Herman Daly: Steady state economy• Peter Victor: Managing without Growth
– reduced work week + high carbon tax + social investment• Tim Jackson:
– shift from consumption to investment into resource conservation, energyefficiency, clean technology, and ecosystem restoration
• Jonathan Harris:– prosperity without material growth– breakdown economic aggregates into smaller components
Dynamic systems, feedback, control, optimizationpoint of view may be helpful
Systems Studies
1972 20041973 1984
Controversial past record of computational systems models
Role/Perspective for Systems/Control
• Modeling, analysis, optimization, control of complex dynamic socio‐techno‐environmental systems
• Incorporating natural feedbacks in such systems• Resource efficiency and dynamic optimization in all forms in all engineered systems
• Sustainable systems solutions to water, food, energy, health problems
• Incorporation of broader perspective• Multidisciplinary collaborations with other academic disciplines
• Connect with non‐profit organizations, global organizations, governments, private enterprises
Thank You!
Questions?