Sustainability Scenarios for a Resource Efficient Europeec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/studies_modelling/pdf/SustScen_AppendixC.pdf · Table C.4: The Netherlands in a Sustainable

Sustainability Scenarios for a

Resource Efficient Europe

Appendix C to the Final Report for the

European Commission (DG Environment)

8 June 2011

Cambridge Econometrics

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Sustainability Scenarios for a Resource Efficient Europe: Final Report

ii

Revision and Authorisation History

Version Date Authorised for

release by

Description

1.0 8/8/2011 Anthony Barker Version accompanying draft final report


iii

Contents

Page

Appendix C: Tabular overview of selected sustainability scenario studies 4

Table C.1: GEO 4 by UNEP (2007) .............................................................................. 4 Table C.2: Scarcity and Transition by Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2010) ........ 4 Table C.3: Moving into the Right Lane for 2050 by PBL and SRC (2009) .................. 5 Table C.4: The Netherlands in a Sustainable World by PBL (2008) ............................ 5 Table C.5: Exploring Sustainable Development by WBCSD (1997) ............................ 6 Table C.6: Limits to Growth: The 30 Years Update by Meadows, Randers and

Meadows (2004) ............................................................................................................ 6 Table C.7: Growing within limits by PBL (2009) ......................................................... 6 Table C.8: Phosphorus by PBL and Wageningen University (2010) ............................ 7 Table C.9: New Risks and Opportunities for Food Security by IFPRI (2005) .............. 7 Table C.10: The Future of Food and Farming by GO-S (2011) .................................... 7 Table C.11: World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 by FAO (2006) .......................... 8 Table C.12: Assessing Biofuels by IPSRM (2009) ....................................................... 8 Table C.13: Water for Food, Water for Life by IWMI (2007) ...................................... 9 Table C.14: Characterising a Sustainability Transition by ISciences (2003) ................ 9 Table C.15: An Integrated Analysis of Changes in Water Stress in Europe by Kassel

University (2003) ..........................................................................................................10 Table C.16: Charting our water future by the 2030 Water Resources Group (2009) ...10 Table C.17:Impacts of Europe’s changing climate by the EEA-JRC-WHO (2008) ....10 Table C.18: Global water outlook to 2025 by IFPRI and IWMI (2002) ......................11 Table C.19: Energy Technology Perspectives by IEA (2008) .....................................11 Table C.20: Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 by Shell (2008) ......................................12 Table C.21: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability by IPCC

Working Group II (2007) .............................................................................................12 Table C.22: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change by IPCC Working

Group III (2007) ...........................................................................................................13 Table C.23: European Environment Outlook by the EEA (2005) ................................13 Table C.24: Outlook for Waste and Material Flows by the ETC/RWM (2005)...........14 Table C.25: Mosus Scenarios by SERI and IIASA (2006) ..........................................14 Table C.26: The Unfinished Agenda: Perspectives on Overcoming Hunger, Poverty

and Environmental Degradation by the IFPRI (2001) ..................................................15 Table C.27: State of the Future 2008 by The Millennium Project, World Federations

of UN Associations (2008) ...........................................................................................15 Table C.28: Prelude by EEA (2009) .............................................................................16 Table C.29: Foresight Land Use Features by GO-Science (2010) ...............................16 Table C.30: Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Futures by Foresight (2006) .............16 Table C.31: England’s Natural Environment in 2060 by Natural England (2009) ......17 Table C.32: Aachener Szenario by the Aachen Foundation Kathy Beys (2005)..........18 Table C.33: MaRess scenarios by GWS and WI (2011) ..............................................18

Tables


4

Appendix C: Tabular overview of selected

sustainability scenario studies

Table C.1: GEO 4 by UNEP (2007)

GEO 4 BY UNEP (2007)

Type of study Four explorative scenarios of plausible futures to the year 2050:

Markets First, Policy First, Security First and Sustainability First.

Geographical scope global

Temporal scope 2050

Resources covered - fossil fuels

- food and non-food biomass

- land use

- water

- biodiversity

Influencing factors Institutional and socio-political frameworks, demographics,

economic demand, markets and trade, scientific and technological

innovation, and value systems

Source(s): United Nations Environment Programme, 2007. Global Environment Outlook 4. Nairobi, Kenya:

UNEP. http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/report/GEO-4_Report_Full_en.pdf

Table C.2: Scarcity and Transition by Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2010)

SCARCITY AND TRANSITION BY DUTCH MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

(2010)

Type of study Literature study and expert judgement to 1) develop knowledge

on the interrelated problems of global scarcity of natural resources

and changing global geopolitical relations, and 2) explore with

narratives the ways to speed up the required transitions for the

future from a realistic-constructive perspective.

Geographical scope global

Temporal scope 2050

Resources covered food, water, energy, minerals and metals

Influencing factors Population growth, economic development, demand development,

energy prices, institutional limitations, international policy

relations, speculation, reserves

Source(s): Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2010. Scarcity and transition – Research questions for future policy

http://www.minbuza.nl/dsresource?objectid=buzabeheer:197513&type=org

Studies with broad

resource coverage:


5

Table C.3: Moving into the Right Lane for 2050 by PBL and SRC (2009)

MOVING INTO THE RIGHT LANE FOR 2050 BY PBL AND SRC (2009)

Type of study Backcasting study 1) examining the EU of today, from a global

perspective, 2) looking at longterm visions on the world of 2050,

and 3) identifying key decisions for today on global land and

water resources, and low-carbon energy systems, including

transport.

Geographical scope EU (for decisions), global (for visions)

Temporal scope 2050

Resources covered food, and non-food biomass, water, land, energy

Influencing factors The outcome of the study is the description of key political

decisions that would be the influencing factors needed to reach

the visions for 2050.

Source(s): Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Stockholm Resilience Center, 2009. Moving into

the right lane for 2050 – A primer for EU debate. Bilhoven: PBL.

http://www.pbl.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/500159001.pdf

Table C.4: The Netherlands in a Sustainable World by PBL (2008)

THE NETHERLANDS IN A SUSTAINABLE WORLD BY PBL (2008)

Type of study Baseline scenario to 2040 developed by the OECD (together with

the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency);

Benefits and disadvantages of various possible policy choices are

explored vis-à-vis the Baseline scenario.

Geographical scope World, NL

Temporal scope 2040, 2050

Resources covered Land use, biodiversity, food and non food biomass, abiotic

resources

Influencing factors Economic growth, population growth, income, agricultural

efficiency, energy efficiency

Source(s): Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2009. The Netherlands in a Sustainable World –

Poverty, Climate and Biodiversity – Second Sustainability Outlook. Bilhoven: PBL.

http://www.pbl.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/500084003.pdf


6

Table C.5: Exploring Sustainable Development by WBCSD (1997)

EXPLORING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT BY WBCSD (1997)

Type of study Three scenario narratives (Frog!, GEOpolity, Jazz) to explore the

challenges for businesses on the way to sustainable development

Geographical scope Global

Temporal scope 2050

Resources covered All at an implicit level

Influencing factors Economic growth, political and business institutions

Source(s): World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 1997. Exploring Sustainable Development –

WBCSD Global Scenarios 2000-2050.

http://www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/FFiAJwjBGGNjlawOAipD/exploringscenarios.pdf

Table C.6: Limits to Growth: The 30 Years Update by Meadows, Randers and Meadows

(2004)

LIMITS TO GROWTH: THE 30 YEARS UPDATE BY MEADOWS, RANDERS AND

MEADOWS (2004)

Type of study Ten scenarios (simulated with the World3 model) exploring how

the expanding global population and materials economy may

interact with and adapt to the earth's limited carrying capacity.


Temporal scope 2100

Resources covered All, in particular non-renewable resources

Influencing factors Population growth, economic growth

Source(s): Meadows, D. H., Randers, J. and Meadows, D.L., 2004. The Limits to Growth - The 30-year Update.

Chelsea Green.

Table C.7: Growing within limits by PBL (2009)

GROWING WITHIN LIMITS by PBL (2009)

Type of study Two scenarios (‘trend’ without major policy changes and

‘challenge’ depicting the options for change) focussing on two

clusters ‘energy supply and climate change’ and ‘agriculture and

biodiversity loss’



Resources covered land use, food and non food biomass, fossil fuels, biodiversity

Influencing factors Population, energy consumption, diet, environmental policies

Source(s): PBL, 2009. Growing within Limits - A Report to the Global Assembly 2009 of the Club of Rome.

Bilthoven: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. http://bit.ly/fpn2aG


7

Table C.8: Phosphorus by PBL and Wageningen University (2010)

PHOSPHORUS BY PBL AND WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY (2010)

Type of study Material flow analysis of phosphorous


Temporal scope 2100

Resources covered Phosphorus (phosphate rocks)

Influencing factors Reserves, demand, geographical location of deposits

Source(s): Van Vuurena, D.P., Bouwmana, A.F. and Beusena A.H.W., 2010. Phosphorus demand for the 1970–

2100 period: A scenario analysis of resource depletion. Global Environmental Change, 20 (3), 428-439.

http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2010/Phosphorus-demand-for-the-1970-2100-period-A-scenario-analysis-of-

resource-depletion

Table C.9: New Risks and Opportunities for Food Security by IFPRI (2005)

NEW RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOOD SECURITY BY IFPRI (2005)

Type of study Explorative policy scenarios: future global food forecasts are

combined with policy action/inaction modelled with the

International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural

Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)



Resources covered Food biomass, water, land use

Influencing factors Public investments and government expenditures on agriculture

and rural development; investments in education, social services,

and health; rate of agricultural technology improvement

(irrigation efficiency, irrigation expansion rate, water use

efficiency, yields development); level of trade restrictions

Source(s): International Food Policy Research Institute, 2005. New risks and opportunities for food security –

Scenario analyses for 2015 and 2050. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI. http://www.ifpri.org/2020/dp/dp39/2020dp39.pdf

Table C.10: The Future of Food and Farming by GO-S (2011)

THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND FARMING BY GO-S (2011)

Type of study Explorative future study conducted backcasting-like to identify

political decisions required to meet 5 challenges (a. balancing

future demand and supply sustainably, b. ensuring that there is

adequate stability in food supplies, c. achieving global access to

food and ending hunger, d. managing the contribution of the food

system to the mitigation of climate change, e. maintaining

biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world)

Studies with a

focus on ‘mineral

resources’

Studies with a

focus on the

resources ‘food

and biomass’


8


Temporal scope 2050

Resources covered Food biomass, biodiversity, land use, water, fertilizers

Influencing factors Global population increases, changes in the size and nature of per

capita demand, future governance of the food system at both

national and international levels, climate change, competition for

key resources, changes in values and ethical stances of consumers

Source(s): Foresight, 2011. The Future of Food and Farming, Final Project Report. The Government Office for

Science, London. http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/bispartners/foresight/docs/food-and-farming/11-546-future-of-

food-and-farming-report.pdf

Table C.11: World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 by FAO (2006)

WORLD AGRICULTURE: TOWARDS 2030/2050 BY FAO (2006)

Type of study Projections for food, nutrition, agricultural production and trade

based with assumptions based on the extrapolation of pat data.



Resources covered Food and non-food biomass, land use

Influencing factors Population, food demand and consumption, energy prices

Source(s): FAO, 2006. World agriculture: towards 2030/2050 – Interim report – Prospects for food, nutrition,

agriculture and major commodity groups. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, Global Perspective

Studies Unit. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/esag/docs/Interim_report_AT2050web.pdf

Table C.12: Assessing Biofuels by IPSRM (2009)

ASSESSING BIOFUELS BY IPSRM (2009)

Type of study Literature study; no scenario development but assessment of

existing scenarios and targets concerning (first generation)

biofuels


Temporal scope 2020, 2030, and also references to targets and expected

development until 2050

Resources covered Non-food biomass, food biomass, land use

Influencing factors Development of demand for biomass for non-food uses (power,

heat, transportation), development of agricultural yields,

development of food demand

Source(s): International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management, 2009. Towards sustainable production and

use of resources: Assessing biofuels. United Nations Environment Programme.

http://www.unep.org/pdf/Assessing_Biofuels-full_report-Web.pdf

Studies with a

focus on the

resource ‘non-food

biomass’


9

Table C.13: Water for Food, Water for Life by IWMI (2007)

WATER FOR FOOD, WATER FOR LIFE BY IWMI (2007)

Type of study Ex-ante policy assessments aimed at decision makers, building on

the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in

Agriculture which critically evaluated the past 50 years of water

development and management world-wide.


Temporal scope 2050

Resources covered Water, food biomass, non food biomass

Influencing factors Mainly political factors concerning water rights, technology

development, investments etc.

Source(s): International Water Management Institute, 2007. Water for food, water for life - A Comprehensive

Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. Sterling, VA: Earthscan.

http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Assessment/files_new/synthesis/Summary_SynthesisBook.pdf

Table C.14: Characterising a Sustainability Transition by ISciences (2003)

CHARACTERISING A SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION BY ISCIENCES (2003)

Type of study Backcasting-like review where the authors

1) identify a small set of goals, quantitative targets, and associated

indicators that further characterize a sustainability transition by

drawing on the consensus embodied in internationally negotiated

agreements and plans of action.

2) examine current scholarship on the processes that influence

attainment of four goals (reducing hunger, promoting literacy,

stabilizing greenhouse-gas concentrations, and maintaining fresh-

water availability) to reveal ‘levers of change’, i.e. forces that

both control the rate of positive change and are subject to policy

intervention.


Temporal scope 2025, 2025, 2050

Resources covered Water (also simply mentioned: marine biomass, land use / land

cover, biodiversity).

Influencing factors Population, affluence or income, technology, economic and

regulatory incentives;

- mention of example cases of changes in consumer preferences,

presented as tantalizing, although anecdotal.

Source(s): Parris, T. M. and Kates, R. W., 2003. Characterizing a sustainability transition: Goals, targets, trends,

and driving forces. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100 (14), 8068–8073.

http://www.pnas.org/content/100/14/8068.full.pdf+html

Studies with a

focus on the

resource ‘water’


10

Table C.15: An Integrated Analysis of Changes in Water Stress in Europe by Kassel

University (2003)

AN INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN WATER STRESS IN EUROPE BY

KASSEL UNIVERSITY (2003)

Type of study Long-term scenario analysis using projections under different sets

of assumptions

Geographical scope European river basins

Temporal scope 1995 to 2020s and 2070s

Resources covered Water (availability, use, stress)

Influencing factors Climate change (temperature, precipitation), socio-economic

development (population, income, electricity production, irrigated

areas, structural change, technological change)

Source(s): Henrichs, T., Lehner, B. and Alcamo, J., 2002. An integrated analysis of changes in water stress in

Europe. Integrated Assessment, 3 (1), 15-29.

http://journals.sfu.ca/int_assess/index.php/iaj/article/viewFile/201/152

Table C.16: Charting our water future by the 2030 Water Resources Group (2009)

CHARTING OUR WATER FUTURE by the 2030 Water Resources Group (2009)

Type of study A baseline scenario shows a growing “water gap” until 2030, the

study looks at supply and demand measures and their cost in a

backcasting-like manner that would allow to close the gap.

Geographical scope World (with particular focus on India, China, Sub-Saharan Africa)

Temporal scope 2030

Resources covered Water

Influencing factors Economic and population growth, Food production, industrial

production (incl. power generation)

Source(s): 2030 Water Resources Group, 2009. Charting Our Water Future - Economic frameworks to inform

decision-making.

http://www.mckinsey.com/App_Media/Reports/Water/Charting_Our_Water_Future_Full_Report_001.pdf

Table C.17:Impacts of Europe’s changing climate by the EEA-JRC-WHO (2008)

IMPACTS OF EUROPE'S CHANGING CLIMATE by the EEA-JRC-WHO (2008)

Type of study Explorative (past trends analysis and projections for the future)

Geographical scope EU-25

Temporal scope 2100

Resources covered Water, marine biodiversity, freshwater biodiversity

Influencing factors Climate change

Source(s): EEA-JRC-WHO 2008. Impacts of Europe's changing climate - 2008 indicator-based assessment,

Chapter 5 Sections 5 - Water quantity, river floods and droughts, 6 - Freshwater quality and biodiversity. EEA

Report No 4/2008, JRC Reference Report No JRC47756.

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp76-110CC2008_ch5-


11

4to6_Water_quantity_and_quality.pdf

Table C.18: Global water outlook to 2025 by IFPRI and IWMI (2002)

GLOBAL WATER OUTLOOK TO 2025 by IFPRI and IWMI (2002)

Type of study Explorative (projections or demand for and availability of water)

Geographical scope World

Temporal scope 2025

Resources covered Water quantities, food biomass

Influencing factors Water prices, water use efficiency, population growth, growth in

live-stock production, government spending, climate change

Source(s): Mark W. Rosegrant, Ximing Cai, and Sarah A.Cline, 2002. Global Water Outlook to 2025 - Averting an

Impending Crisis. Washington,D.C., U.S.A.: International Food Policy Research Institute. Colombo, Sri Lanka:

International Water Management Institute.

http://www.greencrossitalia.it/ita/acqua/risorse_acqua/pdf/rapporto%20IWMI%202025.pdf

http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/water2025.pdf

Table C.19: Energy Technology Perspectives by IEA (2008)

ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES BY IEA (2008)

Type of study ACT scenarios and Blue scenarios, respectively less and more

ambitious regarding the level of Carbon dioxide emissions to be

reached in 2050.


Temporal scope 2050

Resources covered Fossil fuels, non-food biomass (biofuels)

Influencing factors Energy efficiency, investments, climate change, economic

development, technology

Source(s): IEA, 2008. Energy technology perspectives – Scenarios and perspectives to 2050. OECD/IEA.

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/techno/etp/ETP_2008_Exec_Sum_English.pdf

Studies with a

focus on ‘energy’

or the impact

category ‘climate

change’


12

Table C.20: Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 by Shell (2008)

SHELL ENERGY SCENARIOS TO 2050 BY SHELL (2008)

Type of study Two alternative scenarios (Scramble, Blue print) explore different

ways towards “more energy, less carbon dioxide”.


Temporal scope 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050

Resources covered Fossil fuels, non-food biomass (biofuels)

Influencing factors Energy efficiency, energy scarcity/security, climate change,

economic development, environmental pollution, technology

Source(s): Shell, 2008. Shell energy scenarios to 2050. http://www-

static.shell.com/static/public/downloads/brochures/corporate_pkg/scenarios/shell_energy_scenarios_2050.pdf

Table C.21: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability by IPCC

Working Group II (2007)

CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: IMPACTS. ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY BY

IPCC WORKING GROUP II (2007)

Type of study Explorative (address the future impacts of climate change on

sectors and regions, the potential for adaptation and the

implications for sustainability)

Geographical scope World (regionally differentiated)

Temporal scope Up to 2100

Resources covered Freshwater, ecosystems, food and non-food biomass

Influencing factors Mainly climatic drivers

Source(s): IPCC Working Group II, 2007. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge, UK.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg2_report_impacts_adap

tation_and_vulnerability.htm


13

Table C.22: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change by IPCC Working

Group III (2007)

CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE BY IPCC

WORKING GROUP III (2007)

Type of study Explorative (assessing options for mitigating climate change)

Geographical scope World (regionally differentiated)

Temporal scope Up to 2100

Resources covered Energy and climate

Influencing factors Population and economic growth. Sectors responsible for GHG

emissions: Energy supply, Transport and its infrastructure,

Residential and commercial buildings, Industry, Agriculture,

Forestry, Waste management

Source(s): IPCC Working Group III, 2007. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,

Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg3_report_mitigation_of

_climate_change.htm

Table C.23: European Environment Outlook by the EEA (2005)

EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK BY THE EEA (2005)

Type of study Forecasting scenarios compared to EU policy targets

Policy testing with alternative scenarios.

Geographical scope EEA-31, EU-15, EU-10 and other intermediary levels of

aggregations

Temporal scope 2000-2020 (biotic and abiotic resources), 2000-2030 (fossil fuels),

2000-2100 (biodiversity);

As high as 5-year resolution in some cases (e.g. water)

Resources covered Material flows of fossil fuels, metals, minerals, and biomass

Water use and water quality

Land use

Biodiversity (number of plant species)

Influencing factors Demographic patterns, socio-cultural developments, macro-

economic developments, technological developments, sectoral

developments

Source(s): EEA, 2005. European environment outlook. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen. EEA Report

No 4/2005. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2005_4

Studies with a

shorter time scope

than 2050


14

Table C.24: Outlook for Waste and Material Flows by the ETC/RWM (2005)

OUTLOOK FOR WASTE AND MATERIAL FLOWS BY THE ETC/RWM (2005)

Type of study Forecasting scenarios compared to EU policy targets;

Prospective policy analysis with alternative scenarios.

Geographical scope EU-15, EU-10

Temporal scope Period 2000-2020

Resources covered Material flows of fossil fuels, metals, minerals, and biomass

Influencing factors Economic activities and demographic variables

Source(s): Skovgaard, M., Moll, S., Andersen, F. M. and Larsen, H., 2005. Outlook for waste and material flows –

Baseline and alternative scenarios. Copenhagen: European Topic Centre on Waste and Material Flows. Working

paper 2005/1. http://scp.eionet.europa.eu/publications/wp2005_01

Table C.25: Mosus Scenarios by SERI and IIASA (2006)

MOSUS SCENARIOS BY SERI AND IIASA (2006)

Type of study Three forecasting scenario (baseline, low and high sustainability)

linking economic performance with resource use and

environmental deterioration;

Developed own model that directly integrates comprehensive

biophysical data (material use, energy use and CO2 emissions) in

a multi-country, multi-sectoral macroeconomic framework,

including trade flows within Europe and between Europe and all

other world regions.

Geographical scope Focus on Europe with system boundaries extended globally.

Temporal scope 2020

Resources covered Food and non-food biomass

Fossil fuels, metals, construction and industrial minerals,

including unused domestic extraction

Land use, land cover (forestry and built-up area)

Influencing factors Economic development at the sectoral level

Policy instruments at the macro-level

Policy strategies at the sectoral level

Source(s):

1. Stefan Giljum, Mark Hammer, Friedrich Hinterberger (2004). Resource use scenarios for Europe in 2020. SERI

Studies. No. 1. Sustainable Europe Research Institute, Vienna.

http://www.mosus.net/documents/SERI%20Studies%201.pdf

2. Stefan Giljum, Arno Behrens, Friedrich Hinterberger, Andrea Stocker (2005): Evaluation component: Material

extraction. Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI), Vienna.

http://www.mosus.net/documents/Evaluation%20report_Material%20flows_final.pdf

3.Sylvia Prieler: Built-up and associated land area increases in Europe (2005): WP 3 – Environmental Evaluation,

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), LAND USE CHANGE and AGRICULTURE

Project. http://www.mosus.net/documents/MOSUS_Built-up%20land%20increases.pdf

4. Land appropriation of the forest sector, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), LAND

USE CHANGE and AGRICULTURE Project. http://www.mosus.net/documents/MOSUS_Forestry%20sector.pdf

5. Stefan Giljum, Friedrich Hinterberger, Andrzej Kassenberg, Ewa Swierkula (2006): Policy recommendations.

Report from MOSUS Work Package 6. SERI, Vienna.

http://www.mosus.net/documents/MOSUS%20Policy%20recommendations.pdf


15

Table C.26: The Unfinished Agenda: Perspectives on Overcoming Hunger, Poverty and

Environmental Degradation by the IFPRI (2001)

THE UNFINISHED AGENDA: PERSPECTIVES ON OVERCOMING HUNGER,

POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION BY THE IFPRI (2001)

Type of study A book bringing together policy briefs and articles generated by

the 2020 Vision initiative.


Temporal scope 2020

Resources covered Food biomass (incl. meat, fish)

Land use, land cover (rain forest)

Water

Influencing factors Population growth, diet trends, and diverse others for different

policy briefs

Source(s): International Food Policy Research Institute, 2001. The unfinished agenda – Perspectives on

Overcoming Hunger, Poverty, and Environmental Degradation. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI.

http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/books/ufa/ufa.pdf

Table C.27: State of the Future 2008 by The Millennium Project, World Federations of

UN Associations (2008)

STATE OF THE FUTURE BY THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT, WORLD

FEDERATIONS OF UN ASSOCIATIONS (2008)

Type of study A chapter of the book regards the “State of the Future Index”: an

aggregated quantitative forecast of general future outlook

intended to show the directions and intensity of change and

identify the factors responsible.


Temporal scope 2020

Resources covered Aggregated with other variables into the 2007 SOFI: food and

non-food biomass, fossil fuels, water

Influencing factors Population growth, economic growth, income differences, access

to ICT etc.

Source(s): Glenn, J. C., Gordon, T. J. and Florescu, E., 2008. State of the future 2008. Washington, D.C.: World

Federation of UN Associations. http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/sof2008.html


16

Table C.28: Prelude by EEA (2009)

PRELUDE BY EEA (2009)

Type of study Five explorative scenarios (narratives + analytical results): Great

escape (Europe of contrasts), Evolved society (Europe of

harmony), Clustered networks (Europe of structure), Lettuce

surprise u (Europe of innovation), Big crisis (Europe of cohesion).

Geographical scope Europe

Temporal scope 2030

Resources covered Land use and land cover

Influencing factors International trade (globalisation), level of solidarity, level of

policy intervention, energy scarcity, level of environmental

awareness, population dynamics, technology innovation

Source(s): http://www.eea.europa.eu/multimedia/interactive/prelude-scenarios/prelude

Table C.29: Foresight Land Use Features by GO-Science (2010)

FORESIGHT LAND USE FEATURES BY GO-SCIENCE (2010)

Type of study Explorative future study to inform strategic planning

Geographical scope UK with primary focus on England

Temporal scope 2050

Resources covered Land use

Influencing factors Demographic change, economic growth and changing global

economic conditions, climate change, new technologies, societal

preferences and attitudes, the policy and regulatory environment

Source(s): Foresight, 2010. Land Use Futures Project, Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science,

London. http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/bispartners/foresight/docs/land-use/luf_report/8507-bis-land_use_futures-

web.pdf

Table C.30: Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Futures by Foresight (2006)

FORESIGHT INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE FUTURES BY FORESIGHT

(2006)

Type of study Prospective future study to examine the challenges and

opportunities for the UK in bringing ‘intelligence’ to its

infrastructure (the physical networks that deliver such services as

transport, telecommunications, water and energy).

Four scenarios: Perpetual motion, Urban colonies, Tribal trading,

Good intentions.

Geographical scope UK

Temporal scope 2055

Studies (in

English) with a

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Resources covered Abiotic minerals (metals, construction and industrial minerals),

fossil fuels are addressed in the narratives

Influencing factors Main drivers for each of the four scenarios, respectively:

- information, consumption and competition

- good environmental practice in economic and social policies

- an energy shock

- imposed carbon emissions reduction

Source(s): Foresight, 2006. Intelligent infrastructure future: the scenarios towards 2055. Foresight Office of

Science and Technology, London. http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/bispartners/foresight/docs/intelligent-

infrastructure-systems/the-scenarios-2055.pdf

Table C.31: England’s Natural Environment in 2060 by Natural England (2009)

ENGLAND’S NATURAL ENVIRONMENT IN 2060 BY NATURAL ENGLAND (2009)

Type of study Four scenarios (Connect for life, Go for growth, Keep it local,

Succeed through science) to explore future challenges that UK

may face in conserving, enhancing and managing its natural

environment.

Geographical scope UK

Temporal scope 2060

Resources covered The “natural environment”: include all land, flora and fauna,

freshwater and marine environments, geology and soils. It ranges

from inner city gardens, to farmland, remote wilderness and the

high seas.

Influencing factors Climate Change, Converging Technologies, Demographics,

Energy technologies supply, Food Security, World Economic

Power Shifts, Governance, Health and Wellbeing, Infectious

Diseases, Marine – Ocean acidification and over–fishing,

Mobility, Money, Wealth, Economy, Resources – Global scarcity,

Values and People – Generational shift and complexity

Source(s):

1. Natural England, 2009a. Global drivers of change to 2060. Commissioned Report NECR030.

http://naturalengland.etraderstores.com/NaturalEnglandShop/NECR030

2. Natural England, 2009b. England’s natural environment in 2060 - issues, implications and scenarios.

Commissioned Report NERR031. http://naturalengland.etraderstores.com/NaturalEnglandShop/NERR031

3. Natural England, 2009c. Scenarios compendium. Commissioned Report NECR031.

http://naturalengland.etraderstores.com/NaturalEnglandShop/NECR031


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Table C.32: Aachener Szenario by the Aachen Foundation Kathy Beys (2005)

AACHENER SZENARIO by the Aachen Foundation Kathy Beys (2005)

Type of study Scenarios and modelling investigating the impact of increased

resource productivity, introduced taxes on material inputs, and

modified gross value added tax on employment and economic

growth.

Geographical scope Germany

Temporal scope 2020

Resources covered material resources (TMR)

Influencing factors Tax system, final consumption, technology development

Source(s): Aachen Foundation, 2005. Resource productivity as a chance - A longterm stimulus plan for Germany

[Ressourcenproduktivität als Chance - Ein langfristiges Konjunkturprogramm f r eutschland . Aachen: Aachener

Stiftung Kathy Beys. http://bit.ly/gYYpjO

Table C.33: MaRess scenarios by GWS and WI (2011)

MaRess SCENARIOS by GWS and WI (2011)

Type of study Forecasts depicting the economy, resource consumption and

emissions

Geographical scope Germany

Temporal scope every year until 2030

Resources covered material resources (TMR and TMC)

Influencing factors Development of the world economy, instruments of

environmental policy

Source(s): Distelkamp, M., Meyer, B. and Meyer, M., 2011. Quantitative and qualitative effects of a forced resource

efficiency strategy. Resource Efficiency Paper 5.4, Wuppertal. http://ressourcen.wupperinst.org/en/home/index.html

Studies (in

German) with a

national or sub-

national scope

Documents

Sustainability Scenarios for a Resource Efficient Europeec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/studies_modelling/pdf/SustScen_AppendixC.pdf · Table C.4: The Netherlands in a Sustainable