Sustainable Bioenergy in Southeast AsiaAn FAO perspective

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Beau Damen

Bioenergy Officer

Overview

1.

2.

3.

Energy & Bioenergy in Southeast Asia

Sustainability challenges in Southeast Asia

Trade-offs3.

4.

5.

Presentation contents

Trade-offs

Strategies for sustainable bioenergy

FAO Resources

BioenergyBioenergyin Southeast Asia

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Energy in ASEAN + 3

TPES in ASEAN + 3 by source (ktoe), 2009

Source: IEA, 2011

Total TPES = 3,506,771ktoe

Energy in ASEAN

TPES in ASEAN by source (ktoe), 2009

Source: IEA, 2011

Total TPES = 536,335ktoe

Bioenergy in ASEAN + 3

Final Bioenergy Consumption by Sector, 2009- Primary Solid

Biofuels (TJ)

Source: IEA, 2011

Energy in ASEAN + 3

TPES and Bioenergy Share in ASEAN + 3, 2009

Country TPES (Ktoe)

Bioenergy percentage of

TPES

Brunei 3123 0%

Cambodia 5182 70.7%

Indonesia 201999 26%

Lao PDR n/a n/a

Sou

rce: IE

A, 2

01

2

Lao PDR n/a n/a

Malaysia 66826 4.5%

Myanmar 15062 69.9%

Philippines 38842 17.9%

Singapore 18476 0.16%

Thailand 103316 19.9%

Vietnam 64048 39.3%

China 2257101 9%

Japan 471992 1.4%

Republic of Korea 229178 1.3%

Energy in ASEAN + 3

TPES, Bioenergy Share and Poverty Rate in ASEAN + 3, 2010

Sou

rce: IE

A, 2

01

2, W

orld

Ba

nk

Country TPES (Ktoe)

Bioenergy percentage

of TPES

Ratio of population

living on less than $2

per day

Year of poverty

count

Brunei 3123 0% n/a n/a

Cambodia 5182 70.7% 53.3% 2008

Indonesia 201999 26% 46.1% 2010

Lao PDR n/a n/a 66.0% 2008

Sou

rce: IE

A, 2

01

2, W

orld

Ba

nk

Lao PDR n/a n/a 66.0% 2008

Malaysia 66826 4.5% 2.3% 2009

Myanmar 15062 69.9% n/a n/a

Philippines 38842 17.9% 41.5% 2009

Singapore 18476 0.16% n/a n/a

Thailand 103316 19.9% 4.6% 2009

Vietnam 64048 39.3% 43.4% 2008

China 2257101 9% 29.8% 2008

Japan 471992 1.4% n/a n/a

Republic of Korea 229178 1.3% n/a n/a

Modern bioenergy

Schematic view of commercial (modern) bioenrgy routes

The focus of my presentation

Source: IPCC, 2011, based on IEA Bioenergy, 2009

Modern Bioenergy Outlook - Asia

Actual and Projected Bioenergy Demand in Non-OECD Asia, 1990 - 2035

Source: IEA

Thailand

•20% RE (incl. biomass) by 2022

•5 billion litres of biofuel by 2022

China

•362 GW RE (incl. biomass) by 2020

•15 billion litres of biofuel by 2020

Vietnam

•5% RE (incl. biomass) by 2020

•560 million litres of biofuel by 2020

Philippines

•267 MW biomass by 2030

•10% ethanol by 2011

Lao PDR

• 450 million litres of biofuel by 2025

Malaysia

Bioenergy development driven by government

Indonesia

•5% RE by 2025

•5% biofuels by 2025

•10% ethanol by 2011Malaysia

•1065 MW biomass by 2020

•B5 mandate

Sustianability ChallengesSustianability Challengesin Southeast Asia and bioenergy

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Energy Security

Net Energy Imports of Selected Countries in ASEAN + 3, 2009

Country Net energy imports

Net energy imports as a

share of TPES

Brunei -15577 -498.8%

Cambodia 1545 29.8%

Indonesia -153635 -76.1%

Lao PDR n/a n/a

Sou

rce: IE

A, 2

01

2

Lao PDR n/a n/a

Malaysia -21712 -32.5%

Myanmar -7172 -47.6%

Philippines 16336 42.1%

Singapore 58916 318.9%

Thailand 47369 45.8%

Vietnam -13830 -21.6%

China 274916 12.2%

Japan 384459 81.5%

Republic of Korea 198096 86.4%

Energy Projections

ASEAN Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Type, Reference Scenario (MToE), 1980 - 2030

Energy demand set to grow significantly

Source: IEA, 2009

Tackling emissions

Projected CO² Emissions in Non-OECD Asia (MT) 1990-2035

Th

ou

san

ds

MT

CO

²

Source: IEA

72.5

195.1

2008

2030

Southeast Asia

People without access to electricity in ASEAN

(millions of people)

Source: IEA

Food security in Southeast Asia

Undernourishment in 1990-92 and 2010-12 by region (millions)

Leading developing world toward food security

Source: FAO, 2010

Progress toward food security

Hunger trends by region

Source: FAO, 2012

MDG target in reach

Food prices

Th

aila

nd

FAO food price indices in real terms: 1990 - 2012

Rising and increasingly volatile

Source: FAO

Trade-offs

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Trade-offsand bioenergy development

EnergyAgriculture

RuralDevelopment

Trade Finance& planning

Need for coordinated approach

EnergyAgriculture

Environment

PovertyForestry

Bioenergy intersects with a range of policy issues

Opportunities of bioenergy

Energy Security

Investment in agriculture

Job creation & enterprise development

Improved energy access

Reduced emissions

Are many

Risks of bioenergy development

Land-use

Change

Soil and

water

impacts

Competition

for resources

Displacement

or

marginalized

small-holders

The trade-offs can be significant

Different systems

Some bioenergy systems imply different levels of resource competition and final impact:

High

Competition

First generation

biofuels from coops

& residues

…have different impacts

Low

Competition

Second

generation biofuels

from woody biomass

Power generation

from municipal

waste

Biogas

CHP from dedicated

plantations

StrategiesStrategiesfor sustainable bioenergy in

Southeast Asia

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Ensure policies are based on a

detailed assessment of the trade-

offs involvedoffs involved

What are the current needs and challenges facing the energy and

agriculture sectors?

What are the current needs and challenges facing the energy and

agriculture sectors?

Which bioenergy feedstock and Which bioenergy feedstock and

What are the natural resources available for bioenergy production?

What are the natural resources available for bioenergy production?

What are the current needs and challenges facing the energy and

agriculture sectors?

Which bioenergy feedstock and

What are the natural resources available for bioenergy production?

FAO BEFS

Analytical FrameworkKey questions

Diagnostic Analysis: trends in domestic agricultural

markets and food security

Natural Resource Analysis: land, water and residues

Techno-economic and Which bioenergy feedstock and technologies are feasible/cost effective?

Which bioenergy feedstock and technologies are feasible/cost effective?

What is the environmental impact of different bioenergy production chains?What is the environmental impact of

different bioenergy production chains?

How will changes in food prices affect households?

How will changes in food prices affect households?

What is the impact of bioenergydevelopment on the national economy?

What is the impact of bioenergydevelopment on the national economy?

Which bioenergy feedstock and technologies are feasible/cost effective?

What is the environmental impact of different bioenergy production chains?

How will changes in food prices affect households?

What is the impact of bioenergydevelopment on the national economy?

Socio-economic Analysis: economy-wide and household

effects

Techno-economic and Environmental Analysis:

viable technologies, productions costs, smallholder inclusion,

GHG balance

BEFS in Thailand - Findings

Production of key biofuel feedstock will need to growsubstantially - sugar cane molasses and palm oil is anticipatedto double by 2018, while cassava production is expected togrow by 50 percent

Improved yields and some land use and crop change will berequiredrequired

Potential yield improvements for key biofuel feedstock cropsare feasible

Biofuels production in Thailand is economically competitivecompared to imported fossil transport fuels and biofuels.

BEFS in Thailand - Findings

The profitability of biofuels production is highly sensitive tofeedstock costs

Biofuels can offer measurable greenhouse gas mitigationadvantages over fossil fuels, but the impact of crop changeand land-use change on the final emissions profile of biofuelsand land-use change on the final emissions profile of biofuelsis considerable

Biofuels using certain feedstock may not meet the emissionsrequirements of some markets such as the EU

Improving the productivity of feedstock producers would notonly stabilize feedstock costs and but also reduce greenhousegas emissions per unit of biofuel produced.

FAO’s BEFS ApproachA multidisciplinary and integrated set of tools and guidance that support:

• Establishment of an institutionalized dialogue among relevant national stakeholders

• Assessment of the sustainable bioenergy potential

• Risk prevention and management

• Investment Screening and Appraisal

• Impact monitoring, evaluation and response

• Capacity building at technical and policy level

BEFS work to date

Country levelactivities

Regional levelactivities

Peru

Sierra

Leone

Tanzania

Thailand

SADC

SouthAsia

ASEAN

APT

BEFS in ASEAN

Develop a comprehensive strategy on sustainable and integrated food and biofuelsproduction and consumption

Cha-am Hua Hin Statement on ASEAN Plus Three Cooperation on Food Security and Bio-Energy Development - 2009

5.

production and consumption

Promote bio-energy trade and technology innovation to ensure longterm viability of bioenergy

Enhance the partnership with regional and international organizations

Foundations

9.

10.

TCP/RAS/3204

Sustainable, food secure, climate-friendly bioenergy contributes to economic development in AMS

Bioenergy provides more effective

Development Impact

Project Bioenergy provides more effective energy services in AMS with minimal or no impact on food security and the environment.

Desired impact

Project Outcome

BEFS in ASEAN - TCP/RAS/3204

• National capacity building

• Regional cooperation

• Regional technical capacity for ASEAN Secretariat (Ag Industies & NR Division)

FAO support:

• Formation/reinvigoration of national bioenergypolicy bodies directed by SOM AMAF & SOME

• National and regional BEFS mainstreaming strategies where requested

• Targeted technical assessments – natural resources, technologies and trade & economic

Two year, $0.5 million program

Wide range of support materials available

Avoid harmful environmental impacts

Biofuel Feedstock Inputs

Commodity Production

in 2005

(million MT)

Amount required for bioenergy

(million MT)

Average yield

in 2005

(MT/ha)

Additional area in

2030 at 2005 yield

(million ha) 2005 2030 Increase

Wheat &

maize

267.5 1.4 5.9 +4.6 4.5 1.0

Bioenergy Feedstock Requirements in East Asia and Pacific (2005-2030)

maize

Cassava 50.0 0.4 13.1 +12.7 15.7 0.8

Sweet

sorghum

2.7 0.0 10.5 +10.5 4.3 2.4

Sugar cane 213.9 3.7 86.3 +82.6 59.9 1.4

Rapeseed 13.1 0.0 9.4 +9.4 1.8 5.2

Oil palm 146.0 0.4 65.9 +65.4 18.9 3.5

Jatropha n.a. 0.0 10.8 +10.8 4.0 2.7

Total 693.2 5.8 201.9 196.0 n.a. 17.0

Source: FAOSTAT

Environmental challenges

Risks associated with agriculture systems

Source: FAO, 2012

Water scarcity

Source: FAO,

Land degradation

Source: UNEP & TERI from IWMI 2010

Land resources have already deteriorated

FAO Tools for land planning

• A global assessment tool to support strategy, management, planning, rational use and sustainable development addressing food security – facilitating access to data, information and knowledge

FAO Tools for water planning

• Water and crop yields

• Irrigation modernization and planning

• Information system on water and agriculture

Invest in lifting agricultural productivity

Production of plant food calories per hectare of cultivated land (kcal/ha/day)

Yields have stagnated

Source: B Dorin (cf. Agribiom), Graph by Agrimonde (2009)

Share of ODA for agriculture (percentage)

Aid for agriculture has declined

Ensure small-holders & rural

communities will benefitcommunities will benefit

Agriculture, growth & food security

Source: FAO, 2012

Benefits need to reach the poorest groups

Agriculture, growth & food security

Source: FAO, 2012

Agricultural growth can reduce hunger

Smallholders in global bioenergy value chains

and certification: 3 case studies

Rural bioenergy technologies

Household biogas

Improved cook stoves

Biomass gasification

BiocharCommunity

biofuel

Wide range of innovative systems

Integrated Food & Energy Systems

• Full description of IFES systems

• Report on IFES systems in China and Vietnam

• Information on future FAO IFES

FAO IFES Website:

• Information on future FAO IFES activities

http://www.fao.org/bioenergy/67564/en/

Develop regionally agreed

sustainability indicatorssustainability indicators

GBEP Indicators

Agreed by 45 countries & 22 international organizations including China, Cambodia, Lao

PDR, Thailand, Vietnam, ADB & FAO

Legitimate

Relevant Applicable to all sources of bioenergyRelevant

Practical

ScientificMethodical approach to proving the link between

the values or changes in values over time and bioenergy production and use

Data availability and the ability to collect the data

Applicable to all sources of bioenergy

GBEP Sustainability Indicators

FAO ResourcesFAO Resources

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Sustainable bioenergy in Asia

• Challenges in replicating small scale bioenergy projects

• Opportunities for biochar

Topics include:

• Opportunities for biochar

• Bioslurry

• Wood briquettes industry

• Challenges to financing bioenergy in Lao PDR & Vietnam

FAO Bioenergy Website

• FAO view and role on bioenergy

• Details of FAO global bioenergy initiatives

• Links to Global Bioenergy Partnership

Find....

• Links to Global Bioenergy Partnership Secretariat (GBEP)

• Electronic FAO Bioenergy publication warehouse

www.fao.org/bioenergy/en/

BEFS Website

• Full technical and policy reports for each BEFS country

• Full description of BEFS Analytical Framework

Find....

Framework

• Description of activities in each country

• Information on each BEFS Partner Organization

• Links to BEFS reports and materials

www.fao.org/bioenergy/foodsecurity/befs/

Contacts: FAO & BEFS

Asia and the Pacific

Beau Damen – beau.damen@fao.org

Climate, Energy and Tenure Division (FAO HQ)

Heiner Thofern – heiner.thofern@fao.org

Irini Maltsoglou – irini.maltsoglou@fao.org

Andrea Rossi – andrea.rossi@fao.org

www.fao.org

Thank youThank you

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific