Sustainable Development - Imbalances and Opportunities

Knowledge Sharing Forum for the JJ/WBGSP Scholars

Konrad von RitterWBI Sustainable Development

February 23, 2009

World is in Imbalance…

New WDR says, Geographic Imbalance might be helpful...

Managing the costs of fast urbanization: planning ahead to prevent slums, mitigating GHG…

Imbalance of wealth distribution

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

OECD LowIncome

SSA

Per Capita Wealth

(US$1000)

0

20

40

60

80

OECD LowIncome

SSA (nooil)

Natural Capital

Produced Capital

Human&Social Capital

Share of Wealth by Category

(%)

Source: World Bank (2006) Where is the Wealth of Nations

Trends: the rate of change in wealth greatly differs between Regions

Source: World Bank (2006) Where is the Wealth of Nations

Food Production keeping up with Growing Population – but undernourishment persists …

Source: Atlas of Global Development (2007)

AG Productivity: increasing in most parts, except SSA

Increase in use of technology and access to knowledge will be critical to stimulate gains in agricultural productivity

Source: Atlas of Global Development (forthcoming, 2007)

Water - limited resources supporting the engine of growth

Source: Atlas of Global Development (forthcoming, 2007)

… but at a cost: Water – An Increasingly Scarce Natural Capital

WDR 2009 – The World In 3D:(Geographic) Imbalance can be good for Prosperity

Higher Density

Shorter Distance

Fewer Divisions

High Density = High Attraction!

1 United States 12,434 35 Colombia 338 69 Madrid, Spain 188

2 China 8,610 36 Egypt 329 70 Norway 187

3 Japan 4,013 37 Ukraine 316 71 Chile 187

4 India 3,787 38 Mexico City, Mexico 315 72 Seattle, USA 186

5 Germany 2,409 39 Philadelphia, USA 312 73 Denmark 182

6 United Kingdom 1,969 40 Washington, DC, USA 299 74 Moscow, Russia 181

7 France 1,859 41 Bangladesh 296 75 DaimlerChrysler 177

8 Italy 1,690 42 Boston, USA 290 76 Israel 175

9 Brazil 1,534 43 Walmart 288 77 Toyota Motor 173

10 Russian Federation 1,523 44 BP 285 78 Ford Motor 172

11 Tokyo, Japan 1,191 45 Sweden 284 79 Sydney, Australia 172

12 New York, USA 1,133 46 Switzerland 276 80 Venezuela 171

13 Spain 1,121 47 Austria 273 81 Hungary 171

14 Korea, Republic of 1,055 48 Exxon Mobil 271 82 Finland 164

15 Canada 1,041 49 Royal Dutch/Shell Group 269 83 Peru 163

16 Mexico 1,034 50 Dallas/Fort Worth, USA 268 84 Phoenix, USA 156

17 Indonesia 821 51 Greece 262 85 Minneapolis, USA 155

18 Los Angeles, USA 639 52 Malaysia 262 86 San Diego, USA 153

19 Australia 622 53 Vietnam 250 87 General Electric 153

20 Turkey 607 54 Buenos Aires, Argentina 245 88 Total 153

21 South Africa 568 55 Hong Kong, China 244 89 ChevronTexaco 148

22 Iran, Islamic Republic of 549 56 San Francisco/Oakland, USA 242 90 Ireland 144

23 Thailand 542 57 Atlanta, USA 236 91 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 141

24 Argentina 539 58 Houston, USA 235 92 Barcelona, Spain 140

25 Netherlands 530 59 Miami, USA 231 93 Shangai, China 139

26 Poland 515 60 Sao Paolo, Brazil 225 94 Nigeria 137

27 Chicago, USA 460 61 Algeria 222 95 Melbourne, Australia 135

28 Paris, France 460 62 Seoul, South Korea 218 96 Istanbul, Turkey 133

29 London, UK 452 63 Toronto, Canada 209 97 Morocco 132

30 Philippines 440 64 Portugal 208 98 Denver, USA 130

31 Pakistan 366 65 Czech Republic 206 99 Singapore, Singapore 129

32 Belgium 342 66 Detroit, USA 203 100 Mumbai, India 126

33 Osaka/Kobe, Japan 341 67 General Motors 194

34 Saudia Arabia 341 68 Romania 193

Country/City/CompanyGDP/

Revenues Country/City/Company

GDP/ Revenues

Country/City/CompanyGDP/

Revenues

Country City Company

GDP/Revenues in $ billions PPP, 2005

World’s Top 100 Economies

11. Tokyo12. New York

38. Mexico City40. Wash DC 43. Walmart…

91. Rio d.J.92. Barcelona93. Shanghai

More Density – is happening everywhere: AFRICA - fastest urbanizing region!

1950 203019901980 2000 2010 20201970 19600

1600

800

1000

1200

1400

200

400

600

Urban populationRural population

Total population

1950

-55

2050

-30

1990

-95

2000-5

2010

-15

2020

-25

1960

-65

1970

-75

1980

-850

6

1

2

3

4

5

Popula

tions

(mill

ions)

Rate

of

change (

per

cent)

Total populationRural populationUrban population

Annual Change in Total, 1950-2030

Annual Rate of Change in Total

Growing Importance of Cities

More than half the world is urban today By 2040, world urban populations will double, and land

areas will triple Cities areas are likely the world’s most important

stakeholders; The are a big part of the problem, and an indispensable

part of the solution…

Unbalanced growth – can bring prosperity, but with social and environmental costs

Mobility from Poor to Prosperous RegionsCan’t Stop (Mumbai tried…)Growing Slums…

Up to 80% of GHG emissions from or for cities Buildings, Power generation and transport,

mainly associated with towns and cities, are responsible for the majority of CO2 emissions

Pro-active Approaches to Urban Slums – A WBI Toolkit

Urban Areas – Greatest Opportunites for GHG Reductions

Municipal Areas

Public Transport

Metered Services Others

Wastewater

Buildings

Solid Waste

WBG scaling up Urban Climate work

Within overall WBG Strategy CC Strategy: Financing: e.g. Mexico – first CIF

investment:• Urban mobility and energy efficency

Tools: e.g. GHG Index for Cities Knowledge and Learning: e.g. Carbon

Expo with urban theme

Mexico City: 37 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions Metropolitan zone of

Mexico city : 60 million of tons of carbon dioxide equivalent

9.1% of the national emissions

México: is the number 12 on GHG emissions and contributes with 1.5% of global emissions

MEXICO CITY GREEN HOUSE EMISSIONS IN 2007

10 actions to reduce the GHG emission

1.8 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent reduction per year

Investment needed for these actions 3,191 million dollars

TRANSPORT EMISSION REDUCTION

Mexico City GHG Reduction Strategy

World Bank-SupportedGlobal City Indicators Program

Please visit www.cityindicators.org for more information

GHG Index will be linked to the GCIP

Member cities can share their baseline results and best practices

Carbon Expo 2009 in Barcelona

Thoughts for Discussion

What’s the right balance between making cities livable for future immigrants and rural areas attractive for reducing migration?

Credits: Dan Hoornweg (Cities), Victor Vergara (Slums), B.Valle (Mexico), and as noted on slides