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Sustainable Energy Systems
The EU “WETO”World Energy, Technology and climate policy Outlook
2030
Domenico Rossetti di ValdalberoEuropean Commission, DG Research
Tel.: +32-2-296.28.11 Fax: +32-2-299.49.91
E-mail: [email protected]
European Water Scenarios: from the Mediterranean Sea
to Central Asia Brussels, 30/6-1/7/2003
Sustainable Energy Systems
AIMS OF WETO
Providing an organised picture of the international framework for European energy, technology and climate policies in the next decades (2030)
Analysing the future trends - as well as possible structural changes - in world energy markets developments
Describing the possible development in energy / power technologies under contrasted hypotheses on resource availability and technological progress
Assessing the potential impacts on energy and technology of GHG emission reduction policies at the EU and world level
Sustainable Energy Systems
A WORLD ENERGY MODEL
The POLES model identifies:
38 world regions / countries with a full description of the EU and of the largest countries (USA, Japan, China, Korea, India, Brazil and Mexico …)
about 15 final energy demand modules
12 large scale power generation technologies
Sustainable Energy Systems
12 new and renewable energy technologies
oil and gas supply profiles in the largest world producers
endogenous prices for international oil and gas
In POLES Reference case, a «Two Factor Learning Curve», simulates cost decrease with cumulative installed capacities and cumulative R&D spending (public and private)
A WORLD ENERGY MODEL
Sustainable Energy Systems
Oil \ Gas Low Medium High
Low LOG
Medium REF HGR
The Reference case describes a world with «Technical Change and Policy as usual» it is a benchmark for the assessment of alternative policy schemes
The High Gas Resource case (HGR) explores the consequences of a higher availability in natural gas
Conversely the Low Oil and Gas case (LOG) describes the adjustment from a lower availability of resources
A REFERENCE CASE AND VARIANTS
Sustainable Energy Systems
WORLD POPULATION
World Population (Millions)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Western Europe North America Japan, PacificCIS, CEEC Latin America Africa, Middle EastAsia
Sustainable Energy Systems
World GDP (Billion 99 €)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Western Europe North America Japan, Pacif icCIS, CEEC Latin America Africa, Middle-EastAsia
Share of World GDP
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Western Europe North America Japan, Pacif icCIS, CEEC Latin America Africa, Middle-EastAsia
WORLD GDP AND SHARE OF WORLD GDP
Sustainable Energy Systems
OIL AND GAS PRICES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
€99/
bl
American gas prices Asian gas prices
European gas prices World oil prices
Sustainable Energy Systems
WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
Coal, lignite Oil Natural gas
Prim. Electricity Wood and wastes
Sustainable Energy Systems
ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
World EuropeanUnion
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
Africa,MiddleEast
CIS,CEEC
Asia Japan,Pacific
toe
/ ca
p
1990 2000 2010 2030
Sustainable Energy Systems
WORLD CO2 EMISSIONS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt of C
O2
European Union EU & Accession CountriesUSA BrazilIndia ChinaJapan
Sustainable Energy Systems
WORLD GAS PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION (2030)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
EU + Acc.Countries
OtherWesternEurope
CIS NorthAmerica
Japan,Pacif ic
Africa,MiddleEast
LatinAmerica
Asia
Mto
e
Production Consumption
Sustainable Energy Systems
SHARE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATED FROM NATURAL
GAS
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
European Union 12% 22% 27% 29% 27%
CIS, CEEC 35% 30% 36% 44% 49%
North America 15% 14% 22% 24% 20%
Japan, Pacific 24% 31% 40% 37% 35%
Africa, Middle East 25% 34% 39% 47% 49%
Latin America 10% 15% 29% 38% 40%
Asia 5% 12% 13% 16% 17%
World 18% 19% 25% 28% 28%
Sustainable Energy Systems
LEARNING CURVES FOR POWER GENERATION
TECHNOLOGIES UP TO 2030
cumulative installed capacity [MW]
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000
Inve
stm
ent [€
99/k
W]
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
HydroNuclearNew nuclear designPhotovoltaicsConventional ligniteConventional coalSmall hydroBiogas turbineBiomass CHPCoal gasification ccDirect coalSupercritical coalConventional gasSolar thermal powerWindFuel cells (SFC)Gas combined cycleFuel cells (PEM)
WETO Reference2030
2010
2000
Sustainable Energy Systems
Population and economic growth remain the main driving-forces of the energy developments : from 10000 Mtoe to 17000 Mtoe in 2030 including gains in energy efficiency and the relative saturation in households and transport sectors in the industrialised countries.
In 2030, the world energy consumption share of Developing Countries will increase from 40 to 55%. China emit 3000 Mt of CO2 in 2000 and more than 9000 in 2030.
CONCLUSIONS
Sustainable Energy Systems
Energy technologies are improving (costs and performances) with the learning process but no radical changes are expected in 2030.
Fossil fuel resources are not a strong constraint to the energy development but the slower evolution of reserves in relation to consumption implies an increase of oil and gas prices.
CONCLUSIONS
Sustainable Energy Systems
In 2030, fossil fuels continue to be largely predominant with 90% of the Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES).
Coal will more than double mainly due to Asian market development and will provide 28% of the TPES in 2030 (23% in 2000)
Oil will remain the biggest source of energy, increasing from 3500 Mtoe in 2000 to 5900 Mtoe in 2030 (34%)
Gas emerges as a leading element of the fuel mix mainly for the power generation sector and accounts for 25% of the TPES in 2030.
CONCLUSIONS
Sustainable Energy Systems
The WETO report and its “key-messages” in 11 languages are available on:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/energy/
gp/gp_pubs_en.html
MORE INFORMATION