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© APANAC

Global effort is making to control the increase of global annual

average temperature to below the 2°C critical point, that is, to

control the concentration of greenhouse gas to lower than 450

ppm. But even so, there is only 50% chance to achieve this goal.

© www.port.ac.uk

【從地球和人類發展看臺灣的永續能源選擇─李遠哲前院長專訪】

英文海報節錄版

（本翻譯版未經審訂，僅供參考）

The Sustainable Energy for Taiwan, from the Earth and Human Development Point of View- An

interview with Professor Yuan-Tseh Lee

(Poster English Version)

（This English translation is made for reference only; it is NOT officially reviewed.）

[The impact of 2°C warming]

For 4.6 billion years ever since the Earth was formed, the

sun never stops shinning on it, all materials cycle and

lives grow. Until the Industrial Revolution, humans

started to exploit fossil fuels and stepped into the era of

large-scale industrial and commercial production. Natural

environment was widely damaged because of our

arrogance. Only about 250 years since then, we found

ourselves heading towards a no-through road: people start

to worry fossil fuels will soon run out one day, but in fact

before that day, we shall face awkward life-threatening

predicaments: exploding human population and consumptions, earth-shattering pollutions, and

environmental variations. Nuclear War has

been a fear for everyone since half century

ago, and we are now facing two more

upcoming crises, global-warming and

biodiversity-disappearing. For the coming

half century ahead, it is likely that the

extreme climate brought by global warming

will break through a “critical point” and

enter an age of so-called "out-of-control

fault". At this time, CO2 and CH4 will be

coughed up off all oceans. Once CH4 is

released from the Siberian tundra, global

temperature will shoot up abruptly, no man

and only few living creatures can survive.

This is the scene that we humans may meet

right within this century. So, what is it

marked on the boundary stone of this

critical point? -- 2°C!

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) had an evaluation in 2007 reporting that the

average global temperature is 0.7°C warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution. Lives

on the Earth will be heavily frustrated once the warming is beyond the threshold of 2°C,

therefore striving to avoid this happening has become the world’s goal (NB#1), which

nevertheless has become a fantasy. And if we don’t try harder, we are expecting a 4~5°C

warming by the end of this century.

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Comparing with BC, global population has been growing rapidly after the Industrial

Revolution. Our earth can still provide human beings a comfortable living

environment in 1950s, but after merely half a century, the population explosion has

brought consequences such as resource depletion, starvation and worldwide

environmental damage. © The U.S. Census Bureau

The sun provides our earth enormous energy, of which one-hour

supply can meet human needs for one year. Photosynthesis of

plants, animals, forest, soil, microorganisms are all resources

nurtured by the sun. © Peter Hannam/ brisbanetimes.com.au

Many people don’t fully understand the meaning of 2°C. They think “JUST 2°C!” -- the

variation of temperature from dawn to nightfall is more than this scale, not mentioning the

variation across four

seasons. Those who live in

the up North even look

forward to this 2°C warming

to bring them more

comfortable climate.

Unfortunately these are not

true. 2°C is the temperature

warming scale of global

annual average. The Earth is

a living system, very similar

to human body in some way.

36.5°C is the average

human body temperature; a

2°C warming in body is

called “having fever”; 4°C

warming without any

cooling handling and your

life will be in danger. If the

average “body temperature”

of the Earth increases 2°C,

seawater of all oceans will evaporate enormously into air, up into clouds, where huge energy

tanks form. Once the energy is released, it transforms into what we see as typhoon, or many

other forms of climate changes, and finally the extreme weather. For example, long drought

following by violent rainfall then deluge.

“Can the Earth bear all what human activities bring to it?” this is very important for us to keep

in mind when bringing the issue of “sustainable development” into discussion, emphasized

Professor Lee.

[Sustainable development and sustainable energy]

Brundtland stated in report of “Our Common Future” in the 1987 WCED (World Commission on

Environment and Development) about the concept of sustainable development: "…the

development is that meets the needs of the

present without compromising the ability

of future generations to meet their own

needs." Regarding this, Professor Lee

raised two questions: meet WHOSE needs?

WHAT is development?

Are the needs the needs of the West?

Without a car, people in Los Angeles

cannot reach most places to buy and do

many things, so car is one of the basic

needs in their life. Food is in shortage in

many area of Africa, so food is the local

needs in Africa. The needs of people

around the world differ so much; “whose

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needs are we to meet?” is a big key matter, whereas no global consensus has ever reached so far.

Is the development the development of the West way? The model of the West development is to

“produce more so people can consume more”. But is this endless consumption feasible? The

increasing human population and consumption have exceeded what the sun can bear to recycle

and have started to damage the Earth ecosystems. To our mother earth, today’s human

development has reached to a level of “overexploitation”.

Professor Lee hopes everyone to think deeply while discussing sustainable development: Indeed

what purposes do we humans apply science and technology to develop economics? When we

reach our purposes, we should try all the best not to destroy the ecosystems so that we can keep

ourselves surviving on this earth. People now say that we should try to build “low-carbon”

society, in other words, to not use fossil fuels which generate lots of CO2. The renewable energy

and new energy that we keep talking about also means “back to the sun”. Our sun provides this

mother earth enormous energy, of which one-hour supply can meet human needs for one-year.

Solar, wind, geothermal, and ocean current powers all come from the sun. Some ocean energy

like tidal power to do with earth or moon gravity is also a heritage from the sun. Photosynthesis

of plants, animals, forest, soil, microorganisms are all resources nurtured by the sun. If we can

make good use of these, our needs for living and life will be fulfilled very well, given that human

population is under control of course. All in all, if we want a sustainable development, the use of

resources and energy should ensure our coexisting with the nature.

[Where would the energy come from for Taiwan half decade after?]

In general, Taiwan is an “energy-importing” nation, 98% of our energy is imported. In addition,

Taiwan is densely populated, its population density is 20 times to the United States, and about

200 times to Canada or Australia, therefore the sunlight per capita we can enjoy is very limited.

All the same, we still have to try making the best of solar energy, although this energy cannot

solely support our national development given Taiwan’s geography condition. In fact, if we keep

today’s high-consumption lifestyles, it would be lucky enough to satisfy 10%~20% of our energy

demands even if we add in wind power, hydroelectricpower and geothermal, biofuels and other

renewable energy. Even though we can meet this 20%, another 80% is still depending on imports.

With the rapid decrease in global energy resources, the cost of energy import will become more

and more expensive, provided which, how are we going to acquire these 80%?

Currently almost all Taiwan’s energy sources come from the imported fossil fuels. Fossil fuels

are an un-reusable but high-efficient energy source, so the global markets of petroleum and coal

are large. Each country buys their coals according to their needs, so does Taiwan. If one day

humans do not use fossil fuels anymore, Taiwan will actually not be much affected. How come?

It is because most of our energy still relies on importing; the only differences are which type of

energy and where from. About this, our government needs to plan carefully ahead. Our scientists

also need to study harder to develop new energy that suit Taiwan. Do not count solely on foreign

countries. The fate of our own nation and society should be taken full control by ourselves.

[Example Taiwan’s developing sustainable energy]

Professor Lee exemplified several of Taiwan’s developing sustainable energy and provided some

comments with greater scope:

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1. Solar photovoltaics: Currently solar panels are costly, but with the progress of science

and technology, green building and energy-saving lifestyle would be presented in various

ways. Energy-saving materials will also continue developing. Once the technology is

matured and goes mass production, the cost would be reduced. During the transitional

period, if our government can provide positive support and incentives, the research and

development of solar panels can continue, and people will be able to afford this energy.

Therefore we should not underestimate the future economic values of solar energy

because of its current high cost. From pure technical point of view, it is possible for

Taiwan to lower the cost of solar energy in the coming several 10 years, as long as the

government is acting at positive standpoint to support such development. In addition, an

alternative way of acquiring solar energy is to develop the storage and transport of this

energy through international cooperation. Professor Lee will meet with some key

scientists from Asian-Pacific region this year to discuss future solutions for this area,

including the energy issue. Australia is expected to show their potential power of making

solar energy from their vast land full of abundant sunshine. They should be able to

convert the excess into high-voltage direct current and export to many Asian countries

where solar energy is needed.

2. Hydrogen economy: Hydrogen molecules do not exist on the Earth in the form of natural

gas. Most of the hydrogen stays in water after combining with oxygen; therefore we are

not using it as primary energy. Instead, we released it from water by applying other types

of primary energy such as wind power, solar energy, or decomposed it by microbes. The

released free hydrogen can then be used as fuel to produce electricity through chemical

reactions. The hydrogen energy we store is not the electricity it produces but the

hydrogen itself after chemical decomposition. In other word, if Taiwan needs to import

hydrogen energy, we are not actually importing the electricity but the hydrogen. However,

it is difficult to transport gas like hydrogen, and so liquid hydrogen is a better form for

transportation. To do so, liquid hydrogen has to be kept in very low temperature for

delivery, which involves many technical details and the costs are correspondingly high.

Therefore, if Taiwan is to import this energy, we need to plan ahead the best solutions for

these issues.

3. Biomass fuels: It is reasonable for the US and Brazil to develop biomass fuels because

they both own big lands and less dense populations. But for Asia countries where

population density is very high, it is not such a good idea to depend heavily on this

energy type. For example, Taiwan is densely populated on relative small land and

received limited sunshine per capita. Under this circumstance, developing biomass fuels

in Taiwan will bring significant impact on local agriculture production and food

self-supply. Therefore when trying to develop this type of energy here, it is better that we

focus on the exploit of agricultural discards as the biomass resources.

4. Nuclear power: Current nuclear power development in Taiwan is not ideal. In order to

avoid the expansion of nuclear weapons, the design of today’s nuclear reactor allows only

less than 5% potential power of the real nuclear fuel substance, uranium-235 to be

exploited, leaving the remaining 95% the nuclear waste after reaction. The reactor keeps

producing so many nuclear wastes that we have so far no way to handle. In the end, all

the problems are extended to our next generations to deal with.

Nuclear power plant is not ideal not only because of the way the reactor is designed and

operated, but its safety is unsatisfactory either. There are now many innovative ideas and

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quite a few research teams seeking for solutions to nuclear wastes and nuclear safety

problems. Professor Frank Shu’s MSBR (molten-salt breeder reactor) is one among them.

MSBR was tried many years ago by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the US, but

the development did not continue due to a number of insurmountable technical problems.

After reassessment, Frank’s Academy team thinks they can design it better. There are

several features for their new MSBR that they are planning: in the system molten salt

coolants are applied and nuclear fuels are dissolved into special molten salt --no water in

the system so no hydrogen will be generated to cause any explosion, no need to locate the

reactor near ocean or river sides so no risk of affecting marine ecosystem and no risk of

tsunami attack after earthquakes; stable isotope Th-232 is used to convert to nuclear fuel

U-233 that can be consumed quite completely in the chain fission reaction so to increase

the effectiveness of reaction and reduce nuclear wastes; radioactive fission products from

MSBR have short half-lives of 30 years and can be packed into dry casks and stored

underground for another 300 years to become rare mineral substances with great

economic values in future; high-level nuclear wastes from traditional LWRs such as

Pu-239 can be recycled into useful nuclear fuels in the MSCR (molten-salt converter

reactor) and consumed so that the nuclear waste problems of LWRs may be resolved

(please refer the details to Frank’s column in 2013Q2). If all these ideas can be achieved,

it may provide solutions to some of the problems of current LWRs. Professor Lee agrees

with this, but he does not regard that Taiwan's current industrial technology can achieve

this research alone. He strongly recommends that we must seek for cooperation with

countries in Europe and America where with advanced science and technology in nuclear

power development if we don’t want to miss opportunities for this project to achieve

great goals.

Professor Lee believes that in a stable land it is possible to deliver good security to

nuclear power plants by well-designed monitoring systems. However, he stressed, for

Taiwan, earthquakes are an important variable that can make situations much more

complicated and turn down everything. Taiwan’s LWRs has long been denounced having

many problems associating with operations and management, not to mention this island

being situated on seismic zones. “Do I believe in Taiwan’s nuclear safety? If you are

asking me, I would say Not Really!” said Professor Lee. For Taiwan he does not think

nuclear energy is a sustainable energy, and it is not an appropriate energy option either.

But it is worthwhile to encourage researches to find better solution to current nuclear

power problems, such as optimizing the effectiveness of nuclear power reactors, or

reducing nuclear wastes and pollutions, on the other hand, nuclear power can still offer

great contributions to the world if global nations can sit down to discuss the

collaborations of developing new generation nuclear reactors. If everyone agrees to build

nuclear power plants only in stable lands rather than inappropriate area such as where by

the sea or on earthquake belts, then countries with suitable conditions to build nuclear

power stations can export their nuclear energy to where unsuitable to develop nuclear

energy.

5. Carbon neutral, carbon recycling─carbon capture and storage (carbon capture and

sequestration; abbreviated CCS): In addition to developing low-carbon energy, an

alternative option for "low carbon” is to recycle or neutralize carbons exhausting from

human activities. “Torrefaction” is one of the options besides planting trees or using

renewable energy with low carbon emission. Our sun provides energy for the greens to

grow, and we burn plants into charcoal through torrefaction. Torrefaction as a whole is

“endothermic reaction”, during which a part of the absorbed energy is released into air

during the combustion and another part is used for carbon neutral. The released heat can

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be recycled using heat exchangers but the heat is actually relatively little. The key benefit

of torrefaction is that through it the energy and carbon can be captured and retained. Lee

mentioned an example of torrefaction from his childhood experience. At the time people

escaped the war into mountain area, Taiwan acacia (acacia confuse) were chopped off to

make blackened charcoals, which then were burned to use for cooking and boiling hot

waters. People burn charcoals rather than firewood, so very little smoke.

Carbon farms in Australia and South America and the “supertorrefaction” by Frank’s

Academy team are all trying to grow fast-grown plants and then torrefying them into

charcoals. The main purpose of doing this is for carbon sequestration rather than making

biomass or renewable energy, which benefits the environment not just locally but globally.

Therefore, don’t burn out the forests; keep them as the bases of photosynthesis and

carbon sequestration. The recovered carbon can be further grounded into powder and

sprinkle back to earth to optimize soil qualities.

If Taiwan cannot avoid using fossil fuels within this half century, we should at least try to

reduce carbon dioxide produced by coal power. The current approach is CCS, burying the

gas into underground. Professor Lee said, “We should strive towards developing

researches for this, but our government works rather slow for supporting it. For example,

stratum studies are essential for carbon sequestration, it is one million US dollars for each

hole punched into ground. This is by no means a thing affordable by any academic

scholar or any university professor, but needs large-scale planning by the government and

international collaborations together to make it happen.” Last year in the “2012 Taiwan

Symposium on Carbon Dioxide Capture, Storage and Utilization”, Dr Li-Fu Lin invited

scientists from Australia, Japan, Malaysia, and China to brainstorm how to resolve Asian

energy issues for future. “Asia countries should learn from the European Union, which

are very organized." Professor Lee stressed, if we cannot cross the boundaries of

sovereign national interests and turn these to 'global' collaborations with mutual support,

then nothing can be solved.

[Global collaborations to solve the problems of sustainable development]

Britain before World War II used to describe their own Empire as “the sun never sets”, because

the Empire has colonies all over the world for the sun to always shine on. By contrast, each

single country has its own weather and time-zone condition, the supply of sunlight or wind

power can be unstable. Whereas, if all nations work together as one “community”, the problems

of use natural renewable energy can easily be solved. Same to this for Taiwan, to develop future

sustainable energy, we should find ways to cooperate with other countries to establish “energy

networks”. Today there are still international barriers and conflicts of individual interest between

countries. Therefore, by means of connecting among more and more global organizations and

communities, we hope to lower international boundaries and move towards globalization. This is

the road we ought to finish by the end of this century.

With the increasing human activities and communications, problems we are facing today are

often “global” issues. Ozone depletion, greenhouse effect, spread of the epidemic, poverty and

hunger, forest conservation, biodiversity loss and other issues are all ongoing across borders.

There is contradiction between “International collaboration" and "international competition". If

everyone continues focusing on their concerns of self-interest and cannot work together as a

global community to deal with problems, we can resolve no issues. Perhaps no need to await

another 50 years, we will soon find out that our earth has been degraded to the extent that no

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Scientific communities should not do their own, but work for the "whole

earth" for the future of humanity and development. This is the road we

ought to touch down by the end of this century. © Henry Mühlpfordt

man can ever survive in. By then we shall know we are our own enemy. We are heading to a

dead-end for this but still don’t see it.

Professor Lee has been trying to

promote the idea of “breaking

boundaries, walking to the global

world”. Scientific communities

should not do their own, but

remove international barriers with

sovereign national interests, and

work for the "whole earth" for the

future of humanity and

development. He emphasized that

scientists should work together

with scholars in the area of

humanities and social science who

concern with global environment.

By means of the interdisciplinary

cooperation, we are to assess the

impacts and influences on human

society that science brings, and to identify ways to address and resolve the problems. Science

development should move from “international” scale towards “global” scale, so that human

society can continue developing sustainably. Unfortunately, for this there is still no consensus in

many countries. In the 2012 Rio+20, the United Nations Conference on Sustainable

Development, a lot of scholars and civil societies are in favor of drawing up a greenhouse gas

international standard protocol to reduce carbons. The academia that has global visions can only

make suggestions behind the sidelines. Whereas, politicians that not necessarily have the

consensus of global perspectives are the actual one in control of the game-- policy decisions.

This is the existing major contradiction now a day. So, to get things working, researchers have to

find ways to influence the policy decisions.

Conflicts among the national, international and global interests, “we the elderly were not able to

resolve, younger generations need to find your ways”, said Professor Lee in earnest. “We at our

time did not manage to connect globally, but younger generation is not the same”. This is the

first time in human history that the world is connected together through an internet. What we

cannot make in the past, now it is all possible. That is, the current generation already owns the

potential to break international boundaries and make a global link. Professor Lee has stressed

repeatedly that the future has no hope without breaking the boundaries to the world. Sovereign

states cannot work together to achieve anything, but the global links can.

[Carbon reduction+enewable energy≠sustainable development]

The GDP that the nature outputs to humans is much higher than the GDP from our own input.

For example, one-third of the food we eat reply on the pollination by bees and butterflies. It is no

doubt that we can bring greenhouse gases under control if all energy we need comes from the

sun. We may find a way out for carbon reduction and sustainable energy issues by means of

scientific research and development and global policy cooperation. Nevertheless if we keep

consuming resources endlessly, the day when all the forests and the green lands are replaced by

concrete, and when ecosystems are destroyed and biodiversity is disappeared, is the day we

human beings vanish from the Earth. Humans cannot live alone; therefore, some old ways of

thinking must change!

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The GDP that the nature outputs to humans is much higher than the GDP from our own input. If we keep consuming

resources endlessly, the day when all the forests and the green lands are replaced by concrete, and when ecosystems are

destroyed and biodiversity is disappeared, is the day we human beings vanish from the earth. Left image © Nature Blog

Network; Right image © WallpaperWeb

First of all, so far as the world's development went, the exploding of human population and

consumptions has forced humans to face our future. We inevitably have to try “live better, for

less” for the sake of the sustainable development of our human society. This is not to ask

everyone back to live in primitive ways, but to urge people not to allow science perish nature

while we are applying it. Living with the nature is not mutually contradictory with the

development of science, technology, and economics. On the very contrary, science should work

as a bridge to communicate between human development and nature. Reducing energy

consumption and improving energy efficiency are the direction that human society should follow

in the future. “How to live the best life with the minimal resource?” Industry can open their gates

for various advanced development with this logic. For instance, 20 years ago, refrigerator

consumed 1000 watts per hour, and now about 130 watts of electronic power. The automobile

industry has been moving towards a new era to develop electric vehicles. The construction

industry designs and builds their houses following the principle of “allowing people the most

comfortable living with the least daily energy consumption”.

Secondly, it is wrong to believe “high quality of life = high consumption, or high consumption of

life”. High quality of life can be a perfect combination of nature and humanity life. Reading,

playing musical instruments, cultural, music and sports activities within community settlements,

hiking, home gatherings, seeing art exhibitions, etc. These are all the activities with limited

energy consumption, but can lift the quality of our life.

Furthermore, social structure, manufacture and production, as well as consumption habits must

also change, which is especially important for the densely populated Taiwan. Industry must be

restructured. The manufacturing and merchant products should be durable and the warranty and

lifespan should not be shortened for commercial interests. The industry should not promote

public consumption by means of pushing little improved innovation every now and then and all

the time. WE SHOULD THINK OF WAYS TO CREATE HIGHER VALUES BY USING

FEWER RESOURCES. Consumers should not consider popular grass always greener and

always chase after fashion. We actually can live better life with less material consumptions.

Social structure needs change too, by allowing people to have everything of their daily life

reached within easy distances by walking, riding, or MRT. For this, in Taiwan, the establishment

of widespread networks of multi-functional convenience stores has set a very successful

9/10

As the world's development went, the exploding of human

population and consumptions has forced us to face our future.

We inevitably have to try “live better, for less” for the sake of

the sustainable development of our human society. © ASIAA

example. We should be aware that it is a no through road if we continue our way of mass

production and mass consumption for daily life and for economic development.

[Enough time for a change?]

The crisis of extreme climate that humans are to face may be happening in 30~50 years of time.

Before that day, we need not only be able to reverse our existing values coming from “long-term

indoctrination", but need also a real and solid change of behavior in daily life. Professor Lee said

“we may face no hope for future if the changes cannot be achieved in 10 years.” In Taiwan, there

are policy plans for the development of energy, society and sustainability. However, these plans

are more as paper works. Professor Lee thinks the Taiwanese rulers didn’t make enough effort to

try to make the plans implemented. There used to be a Sustainable Development Committee

directly hosted by the Executive Yuan to be responsible for these tasks, but this unit has now

been downgraded to a chamber group in an Office section under a subordinate Bureau of the

Executive Yuan. In addition, Taiwanese people do not seem to sense the vital need of "need to

change". They didn’t realize the fact of relationship between the greenhouse effect and the

natural disasters happening in these recent years. This is partly because that Taiwanese people

are always passive to the engagement in the affairs of public domain. Many people have the

traditional Confucius idea as “self Qijia rule the world”, based on which they give all priority to

the interests of their own and their small circle, then consider their family welfare, then the

nation, and finally the issues for the peace of the world. To tell the truth, there are indeed quite

some civil progresses, more and more people consider extreme climate and sustainable

development important matters, but it hasn’t coagulated into a pressure that significant enough

to push the government to handle the issues. Whether the new nuclear power plant-IV should

continue or cease? This public issue is now put forward for debate. Professor Lee sees this good

thing to Taiwan, by which he hopes Taiwanese people begin to care more about public issues.

“Leaving debts to offspring” is currently the most serious problems happening in Taiwan.

Professor Lee said, “I always tell young people to grasp their own future, not to believe people,

who are no longer living on this planet 50 years later.” Do not just think following the idea or

past experience of the elders, or being manipulated by media propaganda. Young people should

take the initiative to reflective thinking, shorten the gap between "the reality and the ideal", and

find the best way for their own future well.

[Final words: live better..for less]

To sum up, there are two subjects to get

implemented for Taiwan’s sustainable

development. The first is reducing energy

consumption, reducing carbons, and

developing renewable sustainable energy. At

the same time, social development also

needs to keep up with the pace. We need to

act public advocacy “living a better life with

minimal resources”, starting from Taiwan

and influencing the Asian and then the world.

Second, we have to look ahead and think

about the future of “where and how the

energy comes from?” This involves the

policy not only of energy but also of the

national development as a whole, and even

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involves the global world that everyone needs to work together to achieve. At the end of the

interview, Professor Lee final addressed his wish to young people, “I could not help you with my

little influence to urge the government or world to take action, but I hope all young people to be

awaken and think about what you really want for your future and act to grasp it”.

(Data & Writing /Joyce Chen, Interviewers/Joyce Chen and Chun-Hui Yang)

NB#1. Currently the world tries to control green gas level to the level under 450 ppm, but even

so, we only have 50% chance not to let the warming exceeding 2°C.

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