Sustainable global security The role of academics

Richard Parncutt University of Graz

30 April 2007

Ringvorlesung Global StudiesNachhaltigkeit und Globale Entwicklung

Contents

Threats to global securityThe role of academics

Acknowledgment

John Sloboda and the Oxford Research Group

The biggest threat?

“Terrorism is the greatest 21st Century threat, and there is only one rational response - to stand up to it with an "unshakeable unity of purpose" until the world is free of this evil".

Tony Blair, London, November 2003 (on the occasion of the State visit of George W Bush)

US deaths from terrorism

12 24 7 12 6 23

2689

27 350

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Number of US citizens killed by international terrorism (1995-2003).

Source: US Department of State

World deaths from terrorism

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Total number of people killed by international terrorism (1995-2003)

Main causes of death in the USA (2001)

0200000400000600000800000

Pneum

onia

Diabet

es

Accid

ents

Lung

Canc

er

Cance

r

Heart

disea

se

Terror versus climate change

"I think we still overestimate the danger of terror. There are other things that are of equal, if not greater, magnitude, like the environmental global risks."

(Hans Blix speaking on UK TV – March 2004)

A real threat to global security:US military in Persian gulf

US was self-sufficient in oil until the 1970s

CENTCOM in Persian Gulf since 1970s Primary aim is oil control Permanent US bases in Iraq: near

oilfields

The invasion of Iraq: Justified by lying

“developing weapons of mass destruction” “involved in 9/11” “an international terrorist threat” “The aim of the war is democracy” “Civilian casualties will be low” “Invasion is pre-emptive defense”

…and people believed it!

The invasion of Iraq: illegal and undemocratic

Resolution of the UN security council International demonstrations Even military objections

Iraq: civilian deaths since May 2003

Year 1 = 6,331 20 per dayYear 2 = 11,312 31 per dayYear 3* = 12,617 36 per daySource: www.iraqbodycount.org

Iraq – results

death torture living standards sectarian hatred civil war terrorism wasted financial resources

The main threats to global security

1. Climate change2. Competition for resources3. Socio-economic divisions4. Global militarisation5. Terrorism

Interactions between global threats

Each point interacts with the others!

E.g. nuclear power 1. Climate change: maybe2. Competition for resources: no3. Socio-economic divisions: no4. Global militarisation: no5. Terrorism: no

Addressing instability

Global threat

Control paradigm

Sustain paradigm

Climate Nuclear power Renewable energy

Resources Military force Reduce consumption

Poverty Social control Reduce poverty

Militarisation Threaten Disarm

Terrorism Declare “war” Political dialogue

The role of academics

Why academics?

Politicians can’t do everything – limited information and intellectual resources– limited time window (next election)

Academic training costs taxpayersTaxpayers should benefit

Prerequisites for democracy– equal rights political basis– freedom of speech academic role– access to accurate information academic role

Academic strengths

Rational, logical, detached thinking– evidence conclusion implications

Intellectual resources– academic and popular literature– reconciling contrasting viewpoints

Communication and networking– international colleagues, interdisciplinary approaches– opportunities to inform the general public

Imagining the unimaginable – physicists imagine quarks– academics imagine future scenarios

The end of the world?

Observation: Crazy people predict the end of the world

Irrational conclusion: There is no danger of an “end of the world”

Implication: Don’t worry about it Maintain distance from those crazy people

A rational alternative

Massive catastrophes are possible They can be caused by humans

Take responsibility Who else will?

Work towards realistic solutions Concrete projects rather than talk and agreements

Focus on the big picture Detail is important but don’t get lost in it

Prioritisation: A quantitative approach

1. Estimate probability p of a catastrophe2. Estimate number of deaths N (or equivalent suffering)

3. Prioritize political projects according to pN

ExampleA nuclear war could kill 10, 100 oder 1000 million rough estimate: N = 100,000,000

Probability is less than 100% and more than 1% rough estimate: p = 10%

pN = 10 million will die if nothing is doneImplication: Act now! Nothing is more urgent

Evolutionary psychology

Are men inherently violent?Do men care only about their own

cultural group? Is human nature such that self-

destruction is inevitable?

The role of rational thinking and altruism

A rational-selfish response

Survival depends on altruismNo clear boundary between

– altruism and selfishness– Local and global

Individual nations sustainable global security

Implications for federal budgets

„Global“ expenditure: 30%* – aid, development, poverty reduction: 10%* – renewable energy research and promotion: 10%*– defense, conflict res., peace research, cultural exch.: 10%*

Domestic expenditure: 70%*– administration: 10%*– education: 10%*– transport: 10%*– research: 10%*– benefits: 10%*– health: 10%*– other: 10%* * Order of magnitude estimates

Implications for universities

Promote global sustainability: 10% of professorships 5% of working time of all staff 5% of all curricula Political thinktank (Außeninstitut)

Professorships and venia

Theology– Interfaith dialog

Economics– Developmental economics

Law: – International law: asylum, torture, conflict, rights, democracy

Science: – Peace psychology– Intercultural sociology– Sustainable energy and agriculture– Biodiversity

Humanities:– Applied history– Pacifist and minority literature, art and music

Political thinktank

Aim:– Knowledge transfer on current issues– Improve profile and impact of university

Products:– Press statements, publications– Conferences and presentations

Content:– interdisciplinary, many authors– research based

The psychology and sociology of lying

Important stage of child development– theory of mind

Important aspect of everyday life– can be positive

Game theory– Lying as survival or power strategy

Lying in politics– Often deemed necessary to maintain power– Citizens tend to believe leaders

Lying: the role of universities

Promote honest scholarship Train independent critical thinking Promote transparency using info technology Promote collegiality, oppose mobbing

Austria: A special responsibility

Holocaust: the worst ever crime Wealth, freedom, democracy Unlike Germany, no communist history