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Sustainable Transport Futures:
Varvara Nikulina, Henrikke Baumann, David Simon and Frances Sprei
World Symposium on Sustainability Science
6th of April 2017
Manchester, UK
Analysis of the Selected Methodologies Supporting the Planning Process towards Achieving Goal 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
Gothenburg, Sweden Kisumu, Kenya
Aim and scope
Foresighting SymbioCity Backcasting
Present Present Present
Future Future Future
Methodology
Study of the planning
process
Kisumu Gothenburg
Study of the current
situation of the stations
Results
Analysis
Conclusion
Test application of
methodologies to
the situation
Kisumu Gothenburg
Results
Planning processes in Gothenburg and Kisumu
Source: (Hellberg, 2014) Source: (KAM, 2016)
Current situation: organization of the system, key stakeholders, pertinent issues
Countygovernment
Citygovernment
Bus parkstaff Bus
park
Traders
Police
Insurancecompanies
SACCO or
limited
companies
Music copyrightsociety of
Kenya
Export vehicleinspection
center
Companiesissuing speedlimit certificate
Kenyarevenueauthority
Matatuowners
association
Conductor
DriverVehicle
Passengers
Touts
Nationaltransportation and
safety authority(NTSA)
Stakeholder Actor
Location Mean of transport
*
*SACCO - Savings and Credit Co-operatives
Futures methodologies in the given context
Backcasting
Ad
van
tag
es
vision
what should be done to achieve the
vision
avoid “lock-in” solutions
when traditional solutions do not
work
easy to apply, can be done by
individual
a range of alternatives to address
the issue
Dis
adv
anta
ges
future possibilities -> difficult to
design a strategy
qualitative data -> selection of
experts
Foresighting
a clear picture of how future could
look like if considered a number of
criteria
based on available technology
a range of alternatives to address the
issue
no creative solutions
“locked-in” to current state
wishful thinking
qualitative data -> selection of experts
SymbioCity
how the city would look like if the
guidance is followed
city from multiple perspectives
stakeholders with various
backgrounds
city as a whole
number of issues
the model can be adapted to the
local context
“locked-in” to current state
big number of experts
Conclusions
Kisumu: Foresighting [no historical data]
Gothenburg: SymbioCity [some parts]
Kisumu: Backcasting [+participation, strategy; -land use, #stakeholders, language]
SymbioCity [+city level, parts; -short term thinking]
Gothenburg: backcasting [+creative solutions; - #stakeholders]
Foresighting [+future image; -basis for the result]
Not beneficial Beneficial
Thank you! Varvara Nikulina
PhD Candidate in Strategic Sustainable Development
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Mistra Urban Futures,
371 79, Karlskrona, SWEDEN Chalmers University of Technology,
[email protected] 412 96, Gothenburg, SWEDEN
direct: +46 455 38 55 59
mobile: +46 734 22 36 22
References
• Hellberg, S., and P. Jonsson. 2014. Gothenburg 2035: Transport Strategy for a Close-Knit City. Gothenburg: City of Gothenburg.
• KAM. 2016. "Kisumu County Government presents Integrated Strategic Urban Development Plan." Kenya Association of Manufacturers. KAM. May 13. Accessed July 12, 2016. Kisumu County Government presents Integrated Strategic Urban Development Plan.