Sustaining Canada’s Marine Biodiversity: Responding to the

Challenges Posed by Climate Change,Fisheries, and Aquaculture

Jeffrey HutchingsDept Biology, Dalhousie University

“Of…major fish stocks supporting Canada’s fisheries… overall fish population sizes have declined by 50 per cent, according to a recent Royal Society of Canada Expert Panel.” Oceana Canada, Sept 2015

Among the top 15 papers ever read at the website of Environmental Reviews:(Hutchings et al. 2012. Climate change, fisheries, and aquaculture: trends and consequences for Canadian marine biodiversity. Env. Rev. 20: 220-311.)

Presentations: • MPs/Senators on Parliament Hill • Canada Oceans Lecture (Vancouver)• Universities (Calgary, Victoria, Queens,

Dalhousie, Tasmania); • Public Lectures (e.g. Orillia, ON; Halifax)

The Report’s recommendations were sent one week ago to several

high-level Liberal Members of Parliament from British Columbia.

Elements of Precaution: Recommendations for the Regulation of Food Biotechnology

in Canada (2001)

Royal Society of CanadaExpert Panel Report (2001)

Spencer Barrett, U. TorontoJoyce Beare-Rogers, OttawaConrad Brunk, U. WaterlooTimothy Caulfield, U. AlbertaBrian Ellis, UBCMarc Fortin, McGillAnthony Ham Pong, OttawaJeffrey Hutchings, DalhousieJohn Kennelly, U. AlbertaJeremy McNeil, LavalLeonard Ritter, GuelphKarin Wittenberg, U. ManitobaCampbell Wyndham, CarletonRickey Yada, Guelph

Communication of science to

decision-makers

Ideal situation occurs when

decision-makers

solicit Expert Panel advice

Objectives:• Document trends in marine biodiversity• Describe trends in key biodiversity stressors and

predict their consequences for sustaining biodiversity• Audit Canada’s performance in meeting national and

international obligations to sustain biodiversity

(2012)

Territorial Seas(Exclusive Economic Zone)

-------------------------Canada: 2,687,667 km2

EU: 1,008,904 km2

US: 796,441 km2

Longest coastline in the world (~230,000 km)

8 of 10 provinces and all 3 territories (86% of the population) border salt water

Canada: An Ocean Nation?

Canada’s Immense Ocean Geography Comes WithChallenging Ocean Stewardship Responsibilities

Haida Gwaii, BC

Johnstone Strait, BC Battle Harbour, Labrador

Cape Race, NewfoundlandAxel Heiberg Island, Nunavut

RecommendationThat the Government of Canada identify international

leadership in oceans stewardshipas a top government priority.

Oceans: Some Global Considerations

Habitat for 1-2 million species

1 in 3 humans depend on fish as their primarysource of protein

90% of all ocean fisheries are coastal

45% of humans work within 100 km from a coast,generating ~61% of the world’s total Gross NationalProduct (GNP)

Ocean Ecosystem Services

Secure access to wild, low-fat, highly nutritious food

Carbon sequestration

Source of oxygen (> 50% of what we breathe)

Socio-economic well-being of coastal communities

Recreation, tourism, transportation

What is the monetary value of ocean ecosystem services?

What is the Monetary Value ofCanada’s Ocean Ecosystem Services?

Canada’s Boreal Forest: $703 billion annually

Southern Ontario’s Greenbelt: $2.6 billion annually

Mediterranean Sea: €26 billion annually

Secure access to wild, low-fat, highly nutritious food

Whichspecies?

Which fishpopulations?

How were the ‘zone’ categories scientifically determined?

Status of Major Fish Stocks in Canada (Environment Canada, 2015)

www.ec.gc.ca/indicateurs-indicators/default.asp?lang=en&n=1BCD421B-1

For species in the ‘cautious’ and ‘healthy’ zones…

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

B BMSY

0.2

Canada

Current fish biomass compared tobiomass at maximum sustainable yield

TheTarget

Canada’s marine fishes are atabout 0.3 of, or 70% lower than, the target.

Hutchings et al. 2012. Expert panel report on Sustaining Canadian Marine Biodiversity. Royal Society of Canada.

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

B BMSY

0.2

US Argentina Australia

EU

Canada

International

Western Pacific

International

New Zealand South Africa

Current fish biomass compared tobiomass at maximum sustainable yield

Protected Areas?

TheTarget

Canada’s marine fishes are atabout 0.3 of, or 70% lower than, the target.

Hutchings et al. 2012. Expert panel report on Sustaining Canadian Marine Biodiversity. Royal Society of Canada.

0.8% of Canada’s oceans are in Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)

0.11% of Canada’s oceans are closed to extractive use (CPAWS 2015)

10.5% of Canada’s land (3 times size of Germany) is protected2020Percentage of area protected

Terrestrial

Marine

“Increase the proportion of Canada’s marine and coastal areas that are protected to five percent by 2017, and ten percent by 2020.”

Canada’s Marine Biodiversity ObligationsExamples of National and International Biodiversity ObligationsProtect biodiversity Adopt precautionary approach; adopt ecosystem approachProtect and recover species at riskProtect marine environment from land-based activitiesIntegrated management plans for coastal & marine watersMaintain sustainable fisheries & sustainable aquacultureEstablish a network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)Protect vulnerable, rare & fragile ecosystems

VanderZwaag et al. (2012) Environmental Reviews

“As determined by the Royal Society of Canada in 2012,

Canada has failed to protect its aquatic biodiversity,

despite having the legal and policy framework to do so.”

(Ecology Action Centre, October 2015)

RecommendationThat Fisheries & Oceans Canada

rapidly increase its rate of statutory and policy implementation.

RecommendationThat Canada implement statutory renewal

to fulfill national and internationalcommitments to sustain marine biodiversity.

USA

Magnuson-StevensFishery Conservation and Management Act (1976)

Australia

Environment Protectionand BiodiversityConservation Act (1999)

Norway

Nature Diversity Act (2009)

What is biodiversity?Variability, or differences, among living organisms

(e.g., species, populations, genes).

Marine taxonomic group

Estimated no.species:

CANADA

Estimated no.species:

GLOBAL

Microbes (Arctic) 9,500-54,000 Not estimatedPhytoplankton 1,657 ~5,000Macroalgae 860-979 ~9,300Cold-water corals 104 ~700Sponges 265 5,000-10,000Zooplankton 900 Not estimatedBenthic infauna 2,127 Not estimatedFish: sharks,

skates, rays61 ~1,100

Fish: other (bony) 831-971 ~14,200Seabirds 38-64 383-475Mammals 52 125Hydrothermal vents 66 592

Trend dataavailable

Canada’s Marine Species RichnessCanada’s Marine Species Richness (Expert Panel, 2012)

Ogac Lake, Frobisher Bay (620 )

West Coast of Ellesmere Island (810 )

The Arctic

© J Hutchings

© J Hutchings

Phytoplankton

Phytoplankton

Many marine mammals areincreasing in abundance

Trends in Marine Biodiversity

Independent body responsible for advising the federal government on the legal listing

of Species at Risk in Canada

COSEWIC Species at Risk(April 1978-Nov 2015)

(Extinct 15)Extirpated 23Endangered 316Threatened 167Special Concern 205

711

17% of species at risk are marine

Group Wildlife Species at Risk(Extirpated, Endangered,

Threatened, Special Concern)Fishes 74Mammals 34Birds 9Molluscs 3Reptiles 4Total 123

Canadian Marine Wildlife Speciesassessed by COSEWIC as being at risk

Trends in Marine Biodiversity

NE Pacific OffshoreThreatened

(2008)

West Coast TransientThreatened

(2008)

Northern ResidentThreatened

(2008)

Southern ResidentEndangered

(2008)

Killer Whale

2008

DietsResidents: salmonTransients: seals

Northern Right WhaleEndangered

Northern Bottlenose WhaleEndangered

Group Wildlife Species at Risk(Extirpated, Endangered,

Threatened, Special Concern)Fishes 74Mammals 34Birds 9Molluscs 3Reptiles 4Total 123

Canadian Marine Wildlife Speciesassessed by COSEWIC as being at risk

Trends in Marine Biodiversity

Ivory Gull(Endangered)

But, Northern Gannetshave been increasing

1986-2006: 80% decline

Group Wildlife Species at Risk(Extirpated, Endangered,

Threatened, Special Concern)Fishes 74Mammals 34Birds 9Molluscs 3Reptiles 4Total 123

Canadian Marine Wildlife Speciesassessed by COSEWIC as being at risk

Trends in Marine Biodiversity

Porbeagle (Atlantic)89% decline since 1961

American Plaice(Atlantic)

Newfoundland andLabrador: 95%

decline since 1960

© Canadian SharkResearch Lab

Fishes

Basking Shark(Pacific)

>90% sincemid 20th century

British Columbia’s Rockfishes

Bocaccio

Threatened (2007): 80-96%

Canary Rockfish Longspine ThornyheadSpecial Concern

(2007)

Endangered (2013): 95-99%Rougheye Rockfish

Special Concern(2007)

Ogac Lake

Depletion of Canadian

Atlantic cod

A loss of 2 billion breeding individuals

By weight, loss of ~27 million adult humans

Hutchings & Rangeley (2011) Can. J. Zool.

90% decline

Trends in BiodiversityTrends in Biodiversity Stressors

LabradorCurrent

Gulf Stream

Trends in Physical and ChemicalOceanographyTemperature

Salinity (salt content)Ocean stratification (layering)

Acidity (pH)Oxygen content

OttawaMarseille

Iqaluit Bergen

Axel Heiberg Island (780N, 890W)15 August 2005

Global climate change(IPCC, 2013)

• Since 1960, the oceans’ net heat uptake has been 30 times greater than that of the atmosphere

Since 1971, 90% of theglobal heat uptake

has been borneby the oceans;> 30% of CO2 is

absorbed by the oceans

Increased CO2leads to

more carbonic acid(ocean acidification)

and lesscalcium carbonate

(vital for manyinvertebrates)

Gulf ofSt. Lawrence

(surface air temperatures strongly correlated with sea surface water temperatures)

Gulf of St. Lawrence is warming • sea surface temperature increased ~2oC since mid-1980s• 2 warmest years in the last century occurred in the last 16yrs

Gulf of St. Lawrence is experiencing reducedoxygen levels in deep (295m) waters

• deep waters briefly hypoxic in early 1960s (<30% O2 saturation)• hypoxic conditions have existed since 1984

British Columbia: all time series of at least 25 years in durationshow declining trends in O2 at depths between 100 and 400m(greatest reductions at 200-300m)

Sea Ice: Arctic…and Atlantic

~14% per decade

Decline in Gulf of St. Lawrence ice extent: ~14% in past 30 years

Lower St. Lawrence

Estuary

200-320m

Dufour et al. (2010)

Increase in acidity since

1930spH

Trends in Multi-species

FishingMortality

(blue lines)

Pacific and Atlantic

Pacific

AtlanticFish

ing

mor

talit

y (F

) rel

ativ

e to

FM

SY

Overfishing: when BLUE line is above RED line

Globally, over-fishing results in losses of:• $50 billion

annually; • $2 trillion in past

30 years (World Bank)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0

50000

100000

150000

200000A

quac

ultu

re P

rodu

ctio

n (to

nnes

) Total

Finfish (mainly salmon)

Shellfish (mainly mussels & oysters)

Canada

Value of Canadian aquaculture (1986-2013) peaked in 2006

(~ $1billion, in 2011 $)

OverviewTrends in Biodiversity & Its StressorsEffects of Stressors on Biodiversity

The Expert Panel Report

• spatial shifts in species distributions

Consequences of Climate Changeto Marine Biodiversity

• structural and functional changes tomarine ecosystems (e.g., food webs)

• alteration or loss of habitat• temporal/spatial changes in productivity

What will this mean for populations?

ArcticOceanArctic cod

Capelin

Thick-billed murre

Fisheries-inducedalterations to

marine food websand marineecosystems:

Northwest Atlantic

1975 1985 1995 2005 20150

5001000150020002500

Land

ed V

alue

(x10

00, i

n 20

11 d

olla

rs)

All fisheries

Atlantic

Pacific

1990 1998 2006 20140

100200300400500600 Groundfish (bottom) fisheries

1990 1998 2006 20140

40

80

120

160 Pelagic/Other finfish fisheries

1990 1998 2006 20140

100200300400500 Diadromous fisheries (e.g. salmon)

1990 1998 2006 20140

500

1000

1500

2000Invertebrate fisheries

Elvers (young American eel)American eel is a Threatened species

As much as C$7,300(€5,100) per kilogram in 2015!

Elvers,in parking lot,

Bangor, Maine,…in the rain

(20 Nov. 2015)

Warmer

Fresher

Warmer

Fresher

Pacific Ocean

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

pera

ture

Salin

ityTe

mpe

ratu

reSa

linity

Dominant species of zooplankton (Neocalanusplumchrus) in Strait of Georgia is: decreasing in abundance blooming earlier (by 50 days, compared to 1970s)

What are the consequences of such phenological change

for marine species(birds, fishes)?

British Columbia’s waters have becomeincreasingly warmer and fresher

Cod Reproductive (Parental) Population Size

Pershing et al. (2015) Science

Pershing et al. (2015) Science

Cod Reproductive (Parental) Population Size

Small population size

Small populations are more vulnerable to stochasticity than large populations.

Population Productivity

(per capitapopulation growth rate; ora population’s‘compound rate of interest’)

Abundance

Population Threshold?

A Tipping Point?

The dome-shaped curve is indicative of an Allee Effect(or depensation).

Populationsshowing recoveryafter fishing stopped(black lines)

Populationsshowing little or norecovery after fishing stopped (red lines)

Hutchings (2015)Proc. R. Soc. B

Population sizeas a proportion of

maximumobserved size,

Nmax

Population Productivity

(per capitapopulation growth rate; ora population’s‘compound rate of interest’)

Abundance

Population Threshold?

A Tipping Point?

~10% of maximum

Caveat: There are unlikely to be ‘tipping points’ per se

More important?

The time period that abundance

remains low.

Median numberof years below

10% of Nmax

Recovered/Rebuiltpopulations: 0 yr

Populations exhibitinglittle or no recovery: 8.5 yr

Population sizeas a proportion of

maximumobserved size,

Nmax

Hutchings (2015)Proc. R. Soc. B

The greater the depletion and the longer the period of depletion: the longer the recovery period the more uncertain the recovery

Kuparinen, Keith & Hutchings (2014) Conserv. Biol.

Allee effect greatly increases

the time to recovery and the

uncertainty of recovery

(2014)

rmax

0 20 40 60 80 100

Recruits perSpawnerPer capitaPopulationgrowth rate

(r)

Nat

ural

Mor

talit

y (M

)

Spawning Stock Biomass(parental population size)

Fisheries Science:Implicit assumption is

that death due to natural causes does not change with abundance.

Biomass

NaturalMortality

Fishing (F)

Swain and Benôit (2015) Mar Ecol Prog Ser

Natural mortality increasing as abundance

declines.

Recruitment

Many depleted fishes show little or no recovery, despite

massive reductions in fishing mortality.

Atlantic cod

Porbeagle

White hake

Northern wolffish

Cusk

Winter skate

Bocaccio

Northern Cod

Forecasting recovery

2007 2012

Former CanadianFisheries Minister

John Crosbie

99% decline

Canadian NorthernCod Stock

2007 2012

Northern cod today

Currently at 26% of thelimit reference point (Blim)

DFO (2015) CSAS Science Response 2015/018

Currently at ~5% of thestock size in early 1960s

(Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences; October 2015)

There are still no recovery targets or

harvest control rules for northern cod

RecommendationThat the Government of Canada resolveregulatory conflicts of interest affecting

Canada’s progress in fulfillingobligations to sustain marine biodiversity.

RecommendationThat the Government of Canada reduce the

discretionary power in fisheries managementdecisions exercised by the

Minister of Fisheries and Oceans.

The simplest and best strategy: protect existing diversity rebuild depleted populations and species to restore

natural diversity.

“Such a strategy will restore the natural resilience of Canada’s ocean ecosystems to adapt in response to the challenges posed by climate change and other anthropogenic activities.”

Expert Panel’s Over-arching Conclusion