Mid-Year Estimates of Population, 2019 (v2). Swansea Council - Information, Research & GIS (Strategic Delivery Unit), June 2020. 1

Introduction

On 24 June 2020, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published 2019 population estimates for local authority areas in the UK. The estimates reflect the mid-point of the given year (30 June) and are published annually by ONS as a more up-to-date measure of population and change between decennial Censuses (last held in 2011, next in 2021).

The population estimates are calculated by using birth and death registrations data, together with estimated flows from internal migration (moves to/from elsewhere within the UK) and international migration (to/from outside the UK). These estimates relate to the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. The estimates include long-term international migrants (people who change their country of usual residence for at least one year) but do not account for people who enter or leave the UK for less than a year.

This year, provisional mid-2019 estimates were published earlier by ONS to help with analysis of the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the UK population. The provisional release (on 6 May) focused primarily on population size by age and sex, for local authority and higher areas. Whilst the first estimates were subject to potential revision, this release confirms that no changes were made to the original population estimates.

This note provides a brief overview of the published figures including the main results for Swansea, population by age and sex, and trends over the latest year. This note now also includes summary information on the components or drivers of population change, which was only provided in the later release. UK population estimates

The population of the UK is now almost 67 million; standing at 66,796,800 (rounded) in June 2019, an increase of 361,300 (+0.54%) on the previous year. Both natural change (births minus deaths) and net international migration have contributed to growth. Natural change added around 128,000 to the UK population, with the number of births and deaths both lower than the previous year. The estimated growth in the UK from net international migration (in-migration less out-migration) was 231,000; 44,000 fewer than in the year to mid-2018. As a result, UK population growth in the year to mid-2019 was the slowest since mid-2004. Change in Wales

At mid-2019, the population of Wales is estimated at 3,152,900 – an increase of 14,200 or 0.45% on the 2018 figure, slightly below the rate of growth in the UK as a whole. There was a population decrease via natural change in the latest year (approximately -2,400), whilst growth from net migration and other changes was +16,700.

Within Wales, 19 of the 22 local authorities saw an increase in population between mid-2018 and mid-2019, with the largest increases being in Cardiff (up 2,700), followed by Bridgend (+2,200). In percentage terms, 14 local authorities in Wales experienced a higher growth rate than Swansea; the highest in Bridgend (+1.5%) and the Vale of Glamorgan (+1.1%). Further details of population change in all 22 areas are in Appendix 1.

MID-YEAR ESTIMATES OF POPULATION, 2019

Mid-Year Estimates of Population, 2019 (v2). Swansea Council - Information, Research & GIS (Strategic Delivery Unit), June 2020. 2

Swansea’s population

ONS’ confirmed mid-year population estimate for 2019 for the City & County of Swansea is 247,000; comprising of 123,200 males and 123,800 females. This figure represents an increase of approximately 500 (+0.21%) on the 2018 estimate; lower than the increase in the previous year (+1,000) and below the average annual change between 2008 and 2018 (+1,200 per year).

The broad components of population change – namely births, deaths (i.e. natural change) and migration – from mid-2018 to mid-2019 are set out in Table 1 below. Analysis of the supporting data released with the final population estimates suggests that Swansea’s population growth during the year to June 2019 was due to net international in-migration (+1,500 approx.), partly offset by internal (UK-based) out-migration (-800 net approx.) and negative natural change (200 more deaths than births in the year). Table 1: Mid-Year Estimates 2019, components of population change since mid-2018: Swansea, Wales & UK

Mid-2018 Components of Change: Migration and Mid-2019 Area: population Births Deaths other changes population

Swansea 246,500 2,300 2,500 +700 247,000 Wales 3,138,600 +30,500 -32,900 +16,700 3,152,900

UK 66,435,600 +721,700 -617,900 +233,000 66,796,800

Source: Mid-Year Estimates 2018-19 (rounded), ONS. Published June 2020. Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding. Population by age Figure 1: Swansea population by life stage group, mid-2019 Comparisons with Wales and the UK

The pyramid shows a large ‘spike’ in the 19-21 age groups, reflecting the presence of resident students at Swansea’s two universities. The population at ages 22 to 24 then sharply falls, before returning to a more stable pattern during most working age years and gradually declining as people reach their mid-70s.

A breakdown of the population by age in five-year cohorts is in Appendix 2.

The proportion of Swansea’s population of working age (i.e. all aged 16-64), at 63.4%, is higher than Wales (61.1%) and the UK (62.5%). However, Swansea has a lower proportion of children (aged 0-15), at 16.9%, than both Wales (17.9%) and the UK (19.0%).

A more detailed breakdown of Swansea’s population by age and sex (as a population pyramid) is provided in Figure 2 opposite.

Figure 2: Swansea population, mid-2019, by age and sex

Working Age: 16-64

Older people:

65+

Children: 0-15

Mid-Year Estimates of Population, 2019 (v2). Swansea Council - Information, Research & GIS (Strategic Delivery Unit), June 2020. 3

Using these estimates, the composition of Swansea’s population by selected age group (as at mid-2019) can be compared with Wales and UK averages:

There are 12,300 children aged 0-4 in Swansea, 5.0% of the total population – lower than the equivalent proportion for Wales (5.3%) and the UK (5.8%).

Swansea also has a lower percentage aged 5-15, at 11.9% (29,500 children), than Wales (12.6%) and the UK (13.2%).

34,200 (13.8%) of Swansea’s population are young people aged 16-24, a noticeably higher proportion than Wales (10.8%) and the UK (10.6%), in part due to students.

25.1% of the population (61,900 people) are aged 25-44, in between percentages for Wales (24.0%) and the UK (26.1%).

60,400 people in Swansea are aged 45-64 (24.5%), lower as a proportion than both Wales (26.3%) and the UK (25.8%).

19.7% of Swansea’s population are aged 65 and over (48,700), midway between the percentage figures for Wales (21.0%) and the UK (18.5%).

6,600 people in Swansea are aged 85 and over, 2.7% of the Swansea total; the same as the proportion in Wales but above the UK figure (2.5%).

Population change, 2018 to 2019 by age

As noted earlier, the estimated total population of Swansea increased by 500 or 0.2% between 2018 and 2019. Within specific five-year age cohorts, the most significant changes over the latest year are within the following groups: (note: estimated change rounded to units of 10)

Population gains: Age 75-79: +290 (+3.2%) Age 30-34: +370 (+2.5%) Age 70-74: +310 (+2.5%)

Population losses: Age 45-49: -450 (-2.9%) Age 00-04: -290 (-2.3%) Age 15-19: -260 (-1.8%)

Conclusion

In summary, the latest estimates show a further increase in Swansea’s population between mid-2018 and mid-2019, but growth being proportionately lower than Wales and the UK. Recent growth in Swansea remains driven by international migration, partly offset by reductions from natural change (more deaths than births) and net internal (UK-based) migration. Overall population growth in Swansea appears to be slowing in recent years. Note:

Further national information about the latest population estimates is available via the ONS web page: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2019estimates

If you would like any additional information about the mid-year estimates, or have any other queries regarding population and demographic change in Swansea, please contact:

Swansea Council - Information, Research and GIS Tel: 07970 610583. E-mail: research@swansea.gov.uk

Strategic Delivery Unit, Resources Directorate, Civic Centre, Swansea, SA1 3SN.

Mid-Year Estimates of Population, 2019 (v2). Swansea Council - Information, Research & GIS (Strategic Delivery Unit), June 2020. 4

Appendix 1: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN WALES

Local Authority Population total: 2018 Total: 2019 Change (%) Cardiff 364,200 366,900 +2,700 (+0.7%) Swansea 246,500 247,000 +500 (+0.2%) Rhondda Cynon Taf 240,100 241,300 +1,100 (+0.5%) Carmarthenshire 187,600 188,800 +1,200 (+0.6%) Caerphilly 181,000 181,100 +100 (+0.0%) Flintshire 155,600 156,100 +500 (+0.3%) Newport 153,300 154,700 +1,400 (+0.9%) Bridgend 144,900 147,000 +2,200 (+1.5%) Neath Port Talbot 142,900 143,300 +400 (+0.3%) Wrexham 136,100 136,000 -200 (-0.1%) Vale of Glamorgan 132,200 133,600 +1,400 (+1.1%) Powys 132,400 132,400 -0 (-0.0%) Pembrokeshire 125,100 125,800 +800 (+0.6%) Gwynedd 124,200 124,600 +400 (+0.3%) Conwy 117,200 117,200 +0 (+0.0%) Denbighshire 95,300 95,700 +400 (+0.4%) Monmouthshire 94,100 94,600 +400 (+0.5%) Torfaen 93,000 94,000 +900 (+1.0%) Ceredigion 73,000 72,700 -300 (-0.4%) Isle of Anglesey 70,000 70,000 +100 (+0.1%) Blaenau Gwent 69,700 69,900 +100 (+0.2%) Merthyr Tydfil 60,200 60,300 +100 (+0.2%) Wales 3,138,600 3,152,900 +14,200 (+0.5%) UK 66,435,600 66,796,800 +361,300 (+0.5%)

Source: Mid-Year Estimates 2018-2019, ONS. © Crown Copyright 2020.

Appendix 2: SWANSEA’S POPULATION (2019) BY FIVE-YEAR AGE GROUP

Age Males Females All people (% of total) Wales % UK % 0-4 6,300 6,000 12,300 (5.0%) 5.3% 5.8% 5-9 7,100 6,500 13,600 (5.5%) 5.8% 6.2%

10-14 6,900 6,400 13,300 (5.4%) 5.7% 5.9% 15-19 7,500 6,900 14,400 (5.8%) 5.5% 5.5% 20-24 12,600 9,900 22,400 (9.1%) 6.4% 6.2% 25-29 9,800 8,500 18,300 (7.4%) 6.6% 6.8% 30-34 7,800 7,600 15,400 (6.2%) 6.1% 6.7% 35-39 7,600 7,200 14,800 (6.0%) 5.9% 6.6% 40-44 6,700 6,700 13,400 (5.4%) 5.4% 6.0% 45-49 7,200 7,700 14,900 (6.0%) 6.3% 6.6% 50-54 8,000 8,100 16,100 (6.5%) 7.0% 7.0% 55-59 7,500 7,900 15,400 (6.2%) 6.9% 6.6% 60-64 6,600 7,400 14,000 (5.7%) 6.1% 5.6% 65-69 6,200 6,800 13,000 (5.3%) 5.8% 5.0% 70-74 6,000 6,900 12,900 (5.2%) 5.7% 5.0% 75-79 4,200 5,100 9,300 (3.8%) 4.0% 3.5% 80-84 2,900 4,000 6,900 (2.8%) 2.8% 2.6% 85-89 1,600 2,600 4,200 (1.7%) 1.7% 1.6%

90+ 700 1,700 2,400 (1.0%) 1.0% 0.9% Total 123,200 123,800 247,000 (100%) 100% 100%

Source: Mid-Year Estimates 2019, ONS. © Crown Copyright 2020.