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SYNCING PLANNING WITH DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Rena Cheskis-GoldMarch 2016SCUP NA 2016

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EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

What Happens When Millennials Run the Workplace?

Columbia College’s New Dean Brings a Demographic Shift

Colleges Expect Lower Enrollment

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SESSION ORDER Demographic Trends

Demographic Trends in Higher Education

Campus Responses: Interviews with Campus Stakeholders

Table Discussions and Group Sharing of Anecdotes

Discussion and Emerging Topics

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Population Growth Aging of the Population Racial/Ethnic Balance Immigration Age at Marriage Millennials

SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

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US POPULATION OVERVIEW

Source: U.S. Census.

203.2226.5 248.7

281.4 308.7 318.9

0

100

200

300

400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014

Popu

lati

on (M

illio

ns)

Growth:1970-80: 12%1980-90: 10% 1990-00: 13%2000-10: 10%2010-14: 3%

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NORTHEAST POPULATION IS GROWING MORE SLOWLY

Source: U.S. Census.

11.8 12.3 13.2 13.9 14.4 14.6

0

4

8

12

16

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014

Popu

lati

on (M

illio

ns)

Growth:1970-80: 4%1980-90: 7% 1990-00: 5%2000-10: 4%2010-14: 1%

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POPULATION IS GROWING MORE RAPIDLY IN OTHER U.S. REGIONS

22% 17% 16% 12% 9% 7% 4% 3% 3%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mountain WestSouth

Central

SouthAtlantic

Pacific EastSouth

Central

WestNorth

Central

NewEngland

MiddleAtlantic

EastNorth

Central

% G

row

th 2

000-

2011

Source: http://www.nebhe.org

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NEW ENGLAND POPULATION IS GROWING OLDER

Also in 2015, college age (18-24) shifts from positive to negative growth.

Source: NEBHE, U.S. Census.

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NEW ENGLAND RACIAL/ETHNIC BALANCE, 2011

Source: NEBHE, U.S. Census

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U.S. HOME OWNERSHIP, BY RACE/ETHNICITY

50%

100%

Source: Pew Foundation, U.S. Census

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PERCENT FOREIGN-BORN IN NEW ENGLAND (2014)

Source: U.S. Census.

14% 13% 12%5% 4% 3%

11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

MA CT RI NH VT ME NewEngland

% F

orei

gn B

orn

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12MEXICO DOMINATES

Source: Pew Foundation, 2013.

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MASSACHUSETTSBrazilChinaDominican RepublicPortugalIndiaHaitiVietnamCanada El SalvadorGuatemala

NOT SO IN NEW ENGLAND

CONNECTICUTPolandIndiaJamaica (*Rising fast!)ItalyMexicoCanadaBrazilChinaEcuadorUK

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RISING AGE AT MARRIAGE

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RISING AGE AT MARRIAGE

Oldest-marrying states in the U.S: NY, MA, RI, CT, NJ(Women: 28; Men: 30)

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Source: Pew Research Center, 2014: 2013 Current Population Survey.Note: Full-time workers, 2012 dollars.

$28,000

$30,000

$45,000

High schoolgraduate

Two-year degree/ Some college

Bachelor'sdegree or more

VALUE OF A COLLEGE EDUCATIONMEDIAN EARNINGS FOR MILLENNIALS(2012)

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12%

8%

4%

High schoolgraduate

Two-year degree/ Some college

Bachelor'sdegree or more

Source: Pew Research Center, 2014: 2013 Current Population Survey.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VARIES BY EDUCATION FOR MILLENNIALS(2012)

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22%

15%

6%

High schoolgraduate

Two-year degree /Some college

Bachelor's degreeor more

SHARE LIVING IN POVERTY FOR MILLENNIALS VARIES BY EDUCATION(2012)

Source: Pew Research Center, 2014: 2013 Current Population Survey.

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Minority Enrollment International Students First Generation Students Rise in Female Higher Education Lack of Religious Affiliation

COLLEGE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

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20GROWING MINORITY ENROLLMENT (MA STATE UNIVERSITIES)

% minority in MA Community Colleges has gone from 32% to 40% from 2009 to 2014.

90%

80%

3%8%4% 6%

2% 3%

10%20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% F

ull-T

ime

Und

ergr

adua

te S

tude

nts

WhiteHispanicAfrican-AmericanAsianAll Minority Students

Source: Demographic Perspectives and Mass DHE, Fall 2014.

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INTERNATIONAL GRADUATE STUDENT GROWTH IN U.S. (in ‘000’s)

Decade Growth 82% 39% 29%

95

173

241

309

0

100

200

300

400

1980 1990 2000 2010

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INTERNATIONAL VS. U.S. GRADUATE STUDENTS (in ‘000’s)

1,523 1,687 1,9162,628

173241

309

95

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1980 1990 2000 2010

InternationalU.S.

% Int'l. 6% 9% 11% 11%

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SMALLER % FIRST GENERATION COLLEGE STUDENTS….

Source: Higher Education Research Institute (HERI), UCLA.

% Full-time Freshmen:

1975: 30% 2005: 16%

…BUT MORE AWARENESS ON CAMPUS OF SPECIAL NEEDS AND ATTENTION

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Connecticut CollegesRange of % Female Undergraduates

Public: 47% to 60% Private: 47% to 65%Research: 50%

RISE IN FEMALE HIGHER EDUCATION

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25WOMEN NOW EARN MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. DOCTORATES AND FIRST PROFESSIONAL DEGREES *

* Includes PhD, EdD, MD, DDS, JD. Source: Council of Graduate Schools

56.4 65.6

50.174.9

106.5

140.5

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Fall 1999 Fall 2009

# of

Deg

ree

Earn

ers

(‘000

)

Women

Men

% Women1999: 47%2009: 53%

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DUAL-CAREER ACADEMICS

1/3 of academics are partnered with another academic.

This trend is particularly strong among women scientists and assistant professors.

Source: http://gender.stanford.edu/dual-career-research-report

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STUDENTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO AFFILIATE WITH A RELIGION

Source: The American Freshman, National Norms Fall 2014. HERI.

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STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ON CAMPUSES

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STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS VP Enrollment Management

Director, Assessment and Planning

Senior Manager for Housing Development

Assistant Director, Faculty Real Estate and Brokerage Services

Faculty Chair

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WELCOMING FAMILIES Families are only a very small % of

graduate students

Unique needs: Housing type and cost Housing location Daycare Healthcare Time off of academic program

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GRADUATE STUDENTS: YOUNGER AND SINGLE11 out of 16 schools studied provide intentional social and intellectual programming in gradstudent center or grad residence halls, e.g.

Harvard Graduate Commons

MIT Sidney and Pacific Graduate Community

Princeton Graduate College Dormitory

Yale McDougall Center

UPenn Graduate Student Center

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INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS Growing numbers, at undergraduate and

graduate level

Have different needs: Difficulty with credit makes

adjustment difficult Typically do not have cars Require furnished housing, at least in

beginning Open to different housing options due

to urban background and design sense

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Represent first-generation students in Presidents’ Leadership Circles

Mentor-Mentee Relationships

First-Generation Housing Communities

Summer Bridge Success Programs and social media

Office for First-Generation Students, in addition to Diversity and Inclusion

Internship Fairs, Professional Development Classes

Networking Events for First-Generation, International, and Veteran Students

First-Generation Leadership Corps

National Conferences

FIRST-GENERATION STUDENTS

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WOMEN ON CAMPUS Students: “The White Man’s Guide to Getting a

Minority Scholarship”

Faculty: Often 1/3 or more have a spouse living in

another city Recruitment and hiring must take into

account spousal hires and dual housing situations

HERC - Higher Education Recruitment Consortium

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Robust communication with CRM’s

Tuition discounting (private institutions)

The $30,000 college package (combo of Community College, summer and academic year credits)

MA Transfer Pathways project - statewide credit transfers

Family recruitment strategies, for Hispanic students who make admissions decisions collectively with their family

Bilingual and bicultural admissions employees

“100 Males to College” - targeting men

SOPHISTICATED RECRUITMENT

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RELIGION ON CAMPUS

Does college actually make students less religious?

Are college students more spiritual than religious?

More need for campus ministry than ever before, or less?

Chapels, or meditation spaces?

Interfaith spaces, or separate spaces?

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Problems Anecdotes Strategies and Solutions

TABLE AND GROUP SHARING

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DISCUSSION AND EMERGING TOPICS

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/first-generation-college-students/

http://www.nebhe.org/thejournal/trends-indicators-demography/

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/

http://cornellsun.com/2016/03/11/student-assembly-proposes-introduction-of-new-major-first-generation-representative/

Taylor, Paul. The Next America: Boomers, Millennials, and the Looming Generational Showdown. 2014.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/carol-j-carter/10-strategies-for-college_b_8915810.html

http://www.heri.ucla.edu/monographs/theamericanfreshman2014.pdf

http://gender.stanford.edu/dual-career-research-report

http://www.nebhe.org/thejournal/is-our-aging-population-a-threat-to-education/

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/10/07/a-shift-from-germany-to-mexico-for-americas-immigrants/

http://www.heri.ucla.edu/PDFs/pubs/TFS/Special/Monographs/FirstInMyFamily.pdf)

SELECTED REFERENCES

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Rena Cheskis-Gold, PrincipalDemographic Perspectives, LLCwww.demographicperspectives.com

334 McKinley AvenueNew Haven, CT 06515phone/fax (203) 397.1612

CONTACT INFORMATION