Synthetic Rubber Overview

Synthetic Rubber Overview

By Juan Ramon Salinas & Roxanna B. Petrovic.

International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers

Goa, India, March 2016

India Rubber Meet 2016 Proprietary & Confidential1

Topics

o About IISRP

o SR Market Structure

o SR Supply & Demand – Zoom in China

o SR Market Drivers

o Tire Technology Driver – Emissions Legislations

Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 20162

Topics

o About IISRP

o

o

o

o


About I ISRP

M i s s i o n

… . f o s t e r i n g t h e

g r o w t h a n d

c o n s u m p t i o n o f t h e

s y n t h e t i c rubbe r…

M e m b e r s

• + 5 0 C o r p o r a t e M e m b e r s

• + 2 0 C o u n t r i e s

• 7 0 % S R g l o b a l p r o d u c t i o n


Established in 1960…

Leadership – International President

Executive Committee

Managing Director & CEO

Gregory Nelson

EW Copolymer

I n t e r n a t i o n a l P r e s i d e n t2 0 1 5 - 2 0 1 6

About I ISRP


Topics

o

o SR Market Structure

o

o

o


SR Marke t S t ruc tu re

Source: World Rubber Statistics 2015 - IISRP

2 0 1 5 G l o b a l C a p a c i t y



C a p a c i t y E x p a n s i o n s , k t




2 0 1 5 G l o b a l C a p a c i t y










Topics

o

o

o SR Supply & Demand – Zoom in China

o

o


SR Supp ly & Demand

Source: Quarterly Report – IISRP.

BR 2015 Global Capacity = 4,977 kt (63% operating rate)


Source: IISRP - China.

BR 2015 China Capacity = 1,740 kt (44% operating rate)

SR Supp ly & Demand



ESBR 2015 Global Capacity = 4,848 kt (64% operating rate)

SR Supp ly & Demand



ESBR 2015 China Capacity = 1,450 kt (57% operating rate)

SR Supp ly & Demand



SSBR 2015 Global Capacity = 2,004 kt (56% operating rate)

SR Supp ly & Demand



SSBR 2015 China Capacity = 263 kt (22% operating rate)

SR Supp ly & Demand


• By the end of 2015 SR Capacity in India reached around 420 kt/year• Domestic SR producers are ramping-up production based on approvals from tire markets• India is expected t become self-sufficient between 2017 – 2018 reaching around 650 kt/year (+120 kt IIR JV

Reliance/Sibur, +110kt BR Gail).• India’s SR Consumption estimations by IISRP: 480 kt 2014 , and 500 kt by the end of 2015• India is importing around 300 kt of SR, so imports will decreased as the new capacity operating rates ramps-

up.• SR Consumption trend is driven by the GDP (higher exports and investor confidence boosted by new

structural reforms)


73%

12%

15%

Commodity SR Demand

Tires & Auto

Mechanical goods

Other

SR Supp ly & Demand


Topics

o

o

o

o SR Market Drivers

o


SR Marke t Dr ive rs

End Use

Markets

Over Capacity

China

NR

Oil prices


End Use

Markets

Over Capacity

China

NR

Oil prices




End Use

Markets

Over Capacity

China

NR

Oil prices


End Use

Markets

Over Capacity

China

NR

Oil prices


End Use

Markets

Over Capacity

China

NR

Oil prices


Tire

Dem

and

OE Tire Demand Car production

Replacement Tire Demand

Car Parc


IndiaIndonesia

China

Thailand

Brazil

Turkey

Mx

RussiaTaiwan

Malaysia

South Korea

UK

France

Germany

Japan

Spain

Italy

Australia

US

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Vehicles per capita (vehicles/1000 people)

Source: Wikipedia.org


Source: Scotiabank Economics – Global Auto Report - Nov 2015.


2829

2627

2930

3

12

2326 28

28

5

13

16

18 19

1990-1999 2000-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e

Car Sales (millions of units)

Advanced Emerging (Inc. China) China

Topics

o

o

o

o

o Tire Technology Driver – Emissions Legislations


Top 5 emitting Countries and - EU 1990 - 2014

Source: Emissions database for Global Atmospheric Research (European Commission).

Ti re Techno logy Dr iver - Emiss ions Leg is la t ions


Source: Green Tires Fact Book – Lanxess (http://ebooks.lanxess.com/Fact_Book/)


Source: Green Tires Fact Book – Lanxess (http://ebooks.lanxess.com/Fact_Book/)

Closing

Questions

www.iisrp.com

roxanna@iisrp .com

3535 Briarpark Suite250Houston, TX 77042

+1 713 783 7511

International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers

Thank You /आपको बहुत बहुत धन्यवाद

Documents

Synthetic Rubber Overview