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Deep beneath "Damascus volcano" and "the battle of Aleppo", thetectonic plates of the global energy chessboard keep on rumbling.Beyond the tragedy and grief of civil war, Syria is also a Pipelineistanpower play.

Syria's Pipelineistan war

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Syria'sPipelineistan war

AljazeeraPepe EscobarAljazeera August 6, 2012

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More than a year ago, a $10 billion Pipelineistan deal was clinchedbetween Iran, Iraq and Syria for a natural gas pipeline to be built by2016 from Iran's giant South Pars field, traversing Iraq and Syria, witha possible extension to Lebanon. Key export target market: Europe.

During the past 12 months, with Syria plunged into civil war, therewas no pipeline talk. Up until now. The European Union's supremeparanoia is to become a hostage of Russia's Gazprom. The Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline would be essential to diversify Europe's energysupplies away from Russia.

It gets more complicated. Turkey happens to be Gazprom's second-largest customer. The whole Turkish energy security architecturedepends on gas from Russia - and Iran. Turkey dreams of becomingthe new China, configuring Anatolia as the ultimate Pipelineistanstrategic crossroads for the export of Russian, Caspian-Central Asian,Iraqi and Iranian oil and gas to Europe.

Try to bypass Ankara in this game, and you're in trouble. Until virtuallyyesterday, Ankara was advising Damascus to reform - and fast.Turkey did not want chaos in Syria. Now Turkey is feeding chaos inSyria. Let's examine one of the key possible reasons.

I went down to the crossroads

Syria is not a major oil producer; its reserves are dwindling. Yet untilthe outbreak of civil war, Damascus was making a hardly negligible $4billion a year in oil sales - a third of the government budget.

Syria is way more important as an energy crossroads , much likeTurkey - but on a smaller scale. The key point is that Turkey needsSyria to fulfill its energy strategy .

Syria's play in Pipelineistan includes the Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP)from Egypt to Tripoli (in Lebanon) and the IPC from Kirkuk, in Iraq, to

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Banyas - idle since the 2003 US invasion.

The centrepiece of Syria's energy strategy is the " Four Seas Policy "

- a concept introduced by Bashar al-Assad in early 2011, two months

before the start of the uprising. It's like a mini-Turkish power play - an

energy network linking the Mediterranean, the Caspian, the Black Sea

and the Gulf.

Damascus and Ankara soon got down to business - integrating their

gas grids, linking them with the AGP and, crucially, planning the

AGP's extension from Aleppo to Kilis in Turkey; this could later link to

the perennial Pipelineistan opera , the Nabucco, assuming this fat

lady ever sings (and that's far from given).

Damascus was also getting ready to go one up on the IPC; in late

2010 it signed a memorandum of understanding with Baghdad to

build one gas and two oil pipelines. Target market, once again:

Europe.

Then all hell broke loose. But even while the uprising was underway,

the $10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria Pipelineistan deal was clinched. If

finished, it will carry at least 30 per cent more gas than the bound-to-

be-scrapped Nabucco.

Aye, there's the rub. What is sometimes referred to as the Islamic Gas

Pipeline bypasses Turkey.

The verdict is open on whether this complex Pipelineistan gambit

qualifies as a casus belli for Turkey and NATO to go all-out after

Assad; but it should be remembered that Washington's strategy in

south-west Asia since the Clinton administration has been to bypass,

isolate and hurt Iran by all means necessary.

Dangerous liaisons

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Damascus was certainly pursuing a very complex two-prongedstrategy - at the same time linking with Turkey (and Iraqi Kurdistan)but also bypassing Turkey and incorporating Iran.

With Syria mired in civil war, no global investor would even dream ofplaying Pipelineistan. Yet in a post-Assad scenario all options areopen. Everything will hinge on the future relationship betweenDamascus and Ankara, and Damascus and Baghdad.

The oil and gas will have to come from Iraq anyway (plus more gasfrom Iran); but the final destination of Syria Pipelineistan could beTurkey, Lebanon or even Syria itself - exporting directly to Europe outof the Eastern Mediterranean.

Ankara is definitely betting on a Sunni-led post-Assad governmentnot dissimilar to the AKP. Turkey already halted joint oil explorationwith Syria and is about to suspend all trade relations.

Syria-Iraq relations involve two separate strands that seem a worldapart; with Baghdad and with Iraqi Kurdistan.

Imagine a SNC-FSA Syrian government; it would definitely beantagonistic towards Baghdad, mostly on sectarian terms; moreover,the Shia-majority al-Maliki government is on good strategic termswith Tehran, and recently, also with Assad.

The Alawite mountains command the Syrian Pipelineistan routestowards the Eastern Mediterranean ports of Banyas, Latakia andTartus. There's also much gas to be discovered - following the recentexploits in Cyprus and Israel . Assuming the Assad regime is toppledbut beats a strategic retreat towards the mountains, the possibilitiesfor guerrilla sabotage of pipelines multiply.

As it stands, no one knows how a post-Assad Damascus willreconfigure its relations with Ankara, Baghdad and Iraqi Kurdistan -

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not to mention Tehran. Syria, though, will keep playingthe Pipelineistan game.

The Kurdish enigma

Most of Syria's oil reserves are in the Kurdish northeast - whichgeographically lies between Iraq and Turkey; the rest is along theEuphrates, down south.

Syrian Kurds make up nine per cent of the population - some 1.6million people. Even if they're not a sizable minority, Syrian Kurds arealready considering that whatever happens in a post-Assadenvironment, they will be very well positioned in Pipelineistan, offeringa direct route for oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan, in theory bypassingboth Baghdad and Ankara.

It's as if the whole region is playing a Bypassing Lotto . As much asthe Islamic Gas Pipeline may be interpreted as bypassing Turkey, adirect deal between Ankara and Iraqi Kurdistan for two strategic oiland gas pipelines from Kirkuk to Ceyhan may be seen as bypassingBaghdad.

Baghdad, of course, will fight it - stressing these pipelines are nulland void without the central government having its sizeable cut; afterall it pays for 95 per cent of the budget of Iraqi Kurdistan.

Kurds in both Syria and Iraq have been playing a clever game. InSyria they don't trust Assad or the SNC opposition. The PYD - linkedto the PKK - dismisses the SNC as a puppet from Turkey. And thesecular Kurdish National Council (KNC) dreads the Syrian MuslimBrotherhood.

So the absolute majority of Syrian Kurds have been neutral; nosupport for Turkish (or Saudi) puppets, all power to the pan-Kurdish

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cause. PYD leader Salih Muslim Muhammad has summed it all up:"What is important is that we Kurds assert our existence."

This means, essentially, more autonomy. And that's exactly what theygot from that July 11 deal signed in Irbil, under the auspices of IraqiKurdistan president Masoud Barzani; the co-administration of SyrianKurdistan by the PYD and the KNC. That was the direct consequenceof a wily strategic retreat by the Assad regime.

No wonder Ankara is freaking out - it sees not only the PKK finding asafe haven in Syria, hosted by their cousins of the PYD, but also twoKurdish de facto statelets, sending a powerful signal to Kurds inAnatolia.

What Ankara could do to minimise its nightmare is to discreetly helpthe Syrian Kurds economically - ranging from aid to investments ininfrastructure - via its good relations with Iraqi Kurdistan.

In Ankara's worldview, nothing can stand in the way of its dream ofbecoming the ultimate energy bridge between East and West. Thatimplies an extremely complex relationship with no fewer than ninecountries; Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq, Syria,Lebanon and Egypt.

As for the wider Arab world, even before the Arab Spring, an ArabPipelineistan that could link Cairo, Amman, Damascus, Beirut andBaghdad was being seriously discussed. That would do more to unifyand develop a new Middle East than any "peace process", "regimechange" or peaceful or militarised uprising.

Into this delicate equation, the dream of a Greater Kurdistan is nowback in play. And the Kurds may have a reason to smile; Washingtonappears to be silently backing them - a very quiet strategic alliance.

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Of course Washington's motives are not exactly altruistic. Iraqi

Kurdistan under Barzani is a very valuable tool for the US to keep a

military footprint in Iraq. The Pentagon will never admit it on the

record - but advanced plans already exist for a new US base in Iraqi

Kurdistan, or for the transfer to Iraqi Kurdistan of NATO's base in

Incirlik.

This has got to be one of the most fascinating subplots of the Arab

Spring; the Kurds fitting perfectly into Washington's game in the

whole arc from the Caucasus to the Gulf.

Many an executive from Chevron and BP may be now salivating over

the open possibilities of Iraq-Syria-Turkey Pipelineistan triangulations.

Meanwhile, many a Kurd may be now salivating over Pipelineistan

opening the doors to a Greater Kurdistan.

Pepe Escobar is the roving correspondent for Asia Times. Hislatest book is Obama Does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009).

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