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Expected Results Display data graphically Goal: to create a system that is sustainable over long periods of time Potentially harmonious relationship without extinction or overshoot Provided the user-defined parameters for famine and other variables are reasonable
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System Dynamics Modeling of Community Sustainability in
NetLogo
Thomas BettgeTJHSST Computer Systems Lab Senior Research
Project2008-2009
Abstract Apply system dynamics to issue of
sustainability Stocks and flows inherent to system dynamics
well-suited to this topic Arbitrary system based on real-life systems and
data
Expected Results
Display data graphically Goal: to create a system that is sustainable
over long periods of time Potentially harmonious relationship without
extinction or overshoot Provided the user-defined parameters for
famine and other variables are reasonable
Background
Sustainability is a large and important issue Prior research applying system dynamics to
sustainability: Tragedy of the Sahel
Applications to other issues: Similar models with supply chains, etc.
System dynamics as opposed to agent-based or Lotka-Volterra
Development
Used NetLogo with System Dynamics Modeler Basic process: start simple, build up Foundation of model:
Stock: population Flow: births (constant) Flow: deaths (constant)
Obviously not at all accurate More complexity needed
Model Stocks:
Population→Infected Population Workforce Food Land
Flows: Population: births, deaths, infections Food: harvested, consumed, spoiled, (famines)
Variables: Birth rate, death rate, reproduction rate, fraction live births, starvation rate,
food per capita, workforce percentage, famine intensity, famine frequency, population density, optimal population density, AIDS rate, AIDS death rate, spoilation rate, consumption rate, worker productivity, farmable land, uninfected population, total population
Analysis of Model
Now relatively complex Famines:
Occur at regular intervals with regular intensity
Intensity and interval are user-determined
Coded outside of system dynamics interface, rely on calculations with dt
• AIDS:– Outflow from
population into infected-population as the virus spreads
– Connected to reproduction rate
– Higher death rate for the infected population
Testing
Examine outcomes in the context of time frame to determine feasibility
Alter and experiment with parameters to ensure that results and trends are consistent
Compare graphs to expected mathematical relationships
Test after each major addition
Problems and Errors
NetLogo cannot perform calculations on especially large values
Thus, starting parameters must be scaled down AIDS still relatively basic Problems with famines:
Originally did not occur at the expected intervals or with the expected magnitude
Extensive testing and code experimentation has now fixed these issues
Results
Two outcomes for model: Ultimate overshoot:
Ultimate decay:
Results with Population Density
• Limited amount of land creates a ceiling• If people are living too packed together, the
death rate increases• Greater sustainability
Results: AIDS included
• Due to the nature of the infection, the isolated nature of the population, and the absence of immunity, the only outcome is ultimate decay:
Analysis of Results Given the large time scales, it is not
unreasonable that the model should ultimately choose one extreme
Population density corrects this, providing a basic model of infinite sustainability.
Famine threshold- if 92% of food is destroyed every 10 years, the population still flourishes eventually. If 93%, it dies out.
Reasonable that AIDS necessitates extinction
Conclusions
Adding complexity has helped to make the model realistic; it is now truly sustainable with regards to this project
AIDS is a natural and expected exception to this, by its very nature it is not sustainable, but is included to provide insight into the model’s behavior.
Things to add- weather events User-defined variables increase interactivity and
understanding of system dynamics and sustainability.