Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. Budget Exhibit ... · 07/12/2016 · Budget Exhibit Analysis Tool (BEAT) SYST/OR 699 Master’s Project 12/9/2016 FALL 2016 Chris Anderson Kris

Budget Exhibit Analysis Tool (BEAT)

SYST/OR 699Master’s Project

12/9/2016

FALL 2016

Chris AndersonKris Cruz

Jhonnattan DiazSaid Masoud

Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc.

Agenda

• Background

• Problem/Need

• Stakeholders/Objectives

• Scope/Nomenclature

• Data Extraction

• Architecture

• Approach/Results

• Future Work

• Conclusion

2gmuseorspa.wordpress.com

Background

[1] - Rugy, Veronique de. 2013. High Levels of Government Spending Become Status Quo. Fairfax: Mercatus Center.

Overall Federal Budget in

FY05 dollars (1945 – 2013)

3

Supplemental FundingBase Funding

DoD Budget in FY16

dollars (1950 - 2025)

gmuseorspa.wordpress.com

Background


Problem Statement

There is currently no known tool for housing and visualizing DoDresearch and development funding data

• Data are dispersed into many separate documents/locations

• Manual formatting of data is time-consuming

• No efficient way to isolate and visualize data meeting a set of user-specified criteria

Current Analysis

• Govini, a big data analysis company, uses a custom-builttaxonomy in order to align publicly available data; layeringonto their proprietary analytics platform [3]

• However, this work is aimed at visualizing market ownershipbetween defense contractors in different fields of research,rather than changes in forecasted budgets over time


Need Statement

There is a need to have a centralized repository of allPresidential Budget Exhibits in a useable format, with theability to set user-specified criteria to perform customvisualizations

6

Budget

Files


Stakeholders

7

Objectives

• Objective # 1: Trend analysis on high-level Presidentialbudget exhibits (R-1)o Supports the identification of historic trends of interest over time Decremented, Sustained, or Increased funding

• Objective # 2: Deep dive trend analysis derived from trendsof the R-1, utilizing the more detailed Presidential budgetexhibits (R-2)o Supports the identification of trends of at the PE level; Analysts can: Identify causal relationships Perform qualitative analysis


Scope

Appropriation

Category

Scope Funding

PolicyResearch, Development,

Test, and Evaluation

(RDT&E)

Activities and expenses related to

research, development, test, and

evaluation

Incremental

Procurement (PROC) End items >= $100K system unit cost, All centrally

managed items, Initial spares, Labor for certain

production-related functions (e.g., item assembly,

quality assurance)

Full

Operations and Maintenance

(O&M)

Replenishment spares, Fuel, Civilian salaries,

Construction projects < $750K, Travel, Non-

centrally managed end items < $100K system unit

cost

Annual

Military Personnel Expenses

(MILPER)

Military Personnel Expenses Annual

Military Construction (MILCON) Construction Projects >= $750K Full

Budget Activity Number Budget Activity Name1 Basic Research

2 Applied Research

3 Advanced Technology Development

4 Advanced Concept Development &

Prototypes5 System Development and Demonstration

6 RDT&E Management and Support

7 Operational System Development


Nomenclature

10

DoD Program

PE: 06######


Nomenclature

11

DoD Program

Budget Activity

PE: 0603####


Nomenclature

DoD Program

Budget Activity

Serial Number

A series of numbers…in order

E.g.

PE: 060328##

PE Number PE Name

0603203F Advanced Aerospace Sensors

0603211F Aerospace Technology Dev/Demo


Nomenclature

13

DoD Program

Budget Activity

Serial Number

A series of numbers…in orderEquipment / Activity Type

PE: 0603286#


DoD Program

Budget Activity

Serial Number

A series of numbers…in orderEquipment / Activity Type

Nomenclature

Service / Agency

14

PE: 0603286E – Advanced Aerospace Systems


R-1 & R-2 Familiarization

PE / BLI Program Element / Budget Line Item (BLI) Title

Include

in

TOA

FY 2015

(Base &

OCO)

FY 2016

Base

Enacted

FY 2016

OCO

Enacted

FY 2016

Total

Enacted

FY 2017

Base

FY 2017

OCO

FY 2017

Total Classification

0603286E Advanced Aerospace Systems Y 123,292 173,631 0 173,631 182,327 0 182,327 U

0603287E Space Programs and Technology Y 172,504 126,692 0 126,692 175,240 0 175,240 U

0603739E Advanced Electronics Technologies Y 81,119 76,021 0 76,021 49,807 0 49,807 U

0603760E Command, Control and Communications Systems Y 229,945 201,335 0 201,335 155,081 0 155,081 U

0603766E Network-Centric Warfare Technology Y 350,323 425,861 0 425,861 428,894 0 428,894 U

0603767E Sensor Technology Y 283,905 240,127 0 240,127 241,288 0 241,288 U

PE: 0603286E – Advanced Aerospace Systems – FY17 Total $182,327,000

PE: 0603286E – Advanced Aerospace Systems – FY17 Total $182,327,000


PB13

PB14

PB15

PB16

PB17

Use-Case

16

FY 2017

15.839

FY 2017

20.539

FY 2017

20.555

FY 2017

20.466

FY 2017

25.466

Data Extraction

R-1

• Budget information for all RDT&E programs undertaken bythe branches of the DoD

• Lists the budget for the previous two fiscal years, as well asthe budget for the current fiscal year

R-1 Example


Data Extraction

R-2

• Specific to each program, identified by a “program element”(PE) number in the R-1

• Item justification for each program, as the proposed budgetfor the next four fiscal years is listed

R-2 Example (XML format)


Object Oriented Architecture

19

v.18.4


CV – 3 Capability Phasing


OV – 1 Operational Concept

21

BEAT

User


BEAT Requirements

22

Level 0

Level 2

Level 1

M.R.1 The BEAT System shall store no less than 5 years of RDT&E budget exhibit documents when data is available

M.R.2 The BEAT System shall visualize RDT&E budget data over time

S.R.1 The BEAT System shall generate R1 budget trend data by program element for budget activities 2, 3, 4

S.R.2 The BEAT System shall generate R2 budget trend data by program element for budget activities 2, 3, 4

DIV – 1 Data Model


OV – 5b Operational Activity Model

24

USERBEAT

R1BatchJob R2BatchJob ExcelGeneratorJob

Database ExcelVisualizationToolBatchApplication

BEAT: R-1 Data

25

BEAT: R-1 Data

26

Year of Presidential Budget

$M

illio

ns

$M

illio

ns

Year of Presidential Budget

BEAT: R-2 User Input Form

27

BEAT: R-2 Output

28

LCS Mission Modules

increasing funding requests over

time

Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)

decreasing funding requests

over time

250

200

150

100

50

0

$M

illio

ns

500

400

300

200

100

0

$M

illio

ns

PB14 PB15 PB16 PB17

PB12 PB13 PB14 PB15 PB16 PB17

(U)LCS Mission Modules

Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)


Future Work

29

BA 3

BA 2

BA 4


250

200

150

100

50

0

$M

illio

ns

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

$M

illio

ns


Marines

USAF

Select Air Force PE’s across BA 2-4• Track & Identify PE’s as they transition to

new Budget Activities

• Compare PE’s funding profiles at BA

• Compare PE’s length of time at BA

F-35 Eng. & Manuf. Development• Track joint programs’ funding levels over

time

• Identify funding profiles of like programs

• Identify opportunities across services

and/or agencies


Future Work

Program Elements are just the top layer

• Multiple projects make up a PEo Multiple accomplishments make up a project

Example:

PE: 0603286E / Advanced Aerospace Systems

• Project: AIR-01 / Advanced Aerospace Systemso Accomplishments: Tactically Exploited Reconnaissance Node (TERN) Collaborative Operations in Denied Environments (CODE) Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC) Tactical Boost Glide Advanced Aerospace System Concepts Technology for Enriching and Augmenting Manned-Unmanned Systems Vertical Take-off and Landing (VTOL) Technology Demonstrator Distributed Fires Advanced Full Range Engine (AFRE)


Road Map

31

Decision Management System• Begin with the Decision in Mind• Transparent & Agile• Predictive• Test, learn, continuous improvement

FYDP DataLends itself to data analytics because:• Abundance of training data• Structured• Released annually PB17

Program/Project/Accomplishment Data• Projects, Accomplishment, and Plans

and Plans data fields are verbose• E.g. NLP, Support Vector Machine, K-

Nearest Neighbors

Mile

1.0

Mile

5.0

Mile

20

Mile

10

Conclusion

Accomplishments

• Upload R-1 / R-2 budget exhibits to a centralized repository

• Export transformed data into MS Excel Application

• Support the identification of trends in a Program Elemento Historical (R-1)o Future (R-2)

• Users will have a drastic reduction in the time fromcompilation to analysiso SPA estimates the manual process would take 2 weeks

32

The BEAT Systems is able to present usable data within

MINUTES


Thank You

• Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. – Slider Griese &Brandon Davis, Client

• SEOR Faculty – Dr. Hoffman, Dr. Loerch, Dr. Costa, Dr. Zaidi,& Dr. Huang

• OR / SYST 699 Students


Questions?


Acronyms

35

Acronym Definition Acronym Definition Acronym Definition

BA Budget Activity MILCON Military Construction RDT&EResearch, Development, Test, and Engineering

BEATBudget Exhibit Analysis Tool

MILPER Military Personnel SPASystems Planning and Analysis, Inc.

COICommunities of Interest

O&MOperations & Maintenance

UARCUniversity Affiliated Research Center

DoDDepartment of Defense

OSDOffice of the Secretary of Defense

USA United States Army

DoNDepartment of the Navy

PB President's Budget USAFUnited States Air Force

FFRDCFederally Funded Research & Development Centers

PE Program Element USMCUnited States Marine Corps

FY Fiscal Year PROC Procurement USN United States Navy

FYDPFuture Years Defense Program

R&DResearch and Development


References

[1] - Rugy, Veronique de. 2013. High Levels of Government Spending Become Status Quo. Fairfax: Mercatus Center

[2] - American Association for the Advancement of Science 2016

[3] - Govini. No Date. "US Department of Defense Third Offset Standard Market Taxonomy." Analyst Report, Washington, D.C.

[4] - http://www.acqnotes.com/acqnote/acquisitions/rdte-programs-budget-exhibit

[5] – Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) –www.dtic.mil


http://www.acqnotes.com/acqnote/acquisitions/rdte-programs-budget-exhibit

http://www.dtic.mil/

Back-up


Context Diagram


Deliverables

• Java Source Code

• MySQL database export

• Excel templates and completed data sheets

• Final Presentation and Report

• User Manual


CV – 2 Capability Taxonomy


CV – 4 Capability Dependencies


Program Management (WBS)

42

Analysis

Design

Implementation

V&V


Context

MySQL is a popular open-source database used by many developers;

however, since it is open source it has its limitations. If any of these

limitations become a road block during the course of the project, a

new type of database may be needed

43

Current Status (09/16/2016)

Database is being installed, and configured

SPA-01 MySQL Database Unusable

Risk Statement

IF it is determined that MySQL is not usable for this project,

THEN a new database will need to be installed and built

Risk Owner: Said Masoud Schedule Risk: 15 (5 X 3)

Mitigation Strategy

Switch to PostgreSQL database and load data using batch application

into database

Mitigation Plan

Risk: 1 09/16/2016

Plan ID Owner Title Score Date

SPA-01-01 Said Download/Install PostgreSQL 5x3 9/23/16

SPA-01-02 Said Build databases and tables 3x2 9/27/16

SPA-01-03 Said Load data 3x1 10//2/16

SPA-01-04 Said Retune analysis queries 2x1 10/9/16


Risks

September October November Dec.Risk ID Title W02 W03 W04 W05 W06 W07 W08 W09 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 Risk Owner

SPA-01 MySQL Database Unusable 5x3 3x3 3x1 2x1 Said

SPA-02Customer Does not Approve plan in the design

stage5x4 3x4 2x3 1x3 Jhonnattan

SPA-03Customer Does not Approve prototype in the

Implementation stage5x5 4x3 3x2 1x2 Jhonnattan

SPA-04

SPA-05

SPA-06

SPA-07

SPA-08


Methodology


Documents

Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. Budget Exhibit ... · 07/12/2016 · Budget Exhibit Analysis Tool (BEAT) SYST/OR 699 Master’s Project 12/9/2016 FALL 2016 Chris Anderson Kris