Systems Thinking

Prof Roger MaullInnovation and Service Research

University of Exeterr.s.maull@ex.ac.uk

Innovation and Service Research

Using systems theory to underpin service research (Information Processing)

Service systems design• Technical and experiential aspects.

Research on• Linking customer satisfaction/loyalty and BPM• Business process architectures• Importance of variety in process design• Process re-design guidelines• 5 components of BPM• Impact of capacity on systems performance • Complex service systems

Agenda

Why systems thinking is needed Systems Thinking

• Reductionism Systems Approaches

• SoSM• SSM/SD

Ashby LRV Lumpers or Splitters

Why Systems?

Managerial control problem

Incentives problem Staffing problem Boundary problem

No problem ‘phone hacking is not company practice’

Reductionism

Breaking problems down into their component parts

Analysis • Derives an explanation of the whole from an

explanation of the partsBUT

Assumptions

1. Weak connections. Law of unintended consequences

2. The relationship between the parts must be linear so that the parts can be summed together to make the whole. Non-linearity, time delays

3. Optimising each part will optimise the whole. Theory of second best

4. Closed system

Systems Thinking

the central concept of a system embodies the idea of a set of elements connected together which form a whole this showing properties which are properties of the whole rather than properties of its component parts. (Checkland 1981)

the relationships between the elements are just if not more important than the elements themselves the interconnections, the compatibility the effect of one upon the other…...must receive more attention that the parts (Forrester 1956 p 6)

Types of System

1. Natural Systems; hierarchy of physical systems which make up the

universe, (atoms, plants……) 2. Designed Physical Systems;

these systems occur because they have been designed, (bridge or an automated decision system)

3. Designed Abstract systems; Checkland calls the ordered conscious product of the

mind. Examples include mathematics or language or philosophy.

4. Human Activity Systems*Socio-Technical System; These consist of people carrying out purposeful activity

.

Systems thinking

Open systemsTraditionEmergence, Hierarchy

CyberneticsCommunication, Control

Management Systems

What is a system?

How does it behave?

Epistemology

Systems are encountered everywhere in the universe (Wu)

We constantly encounter and participate in numerous forms of systems (Smith).

Out there to be discovered. OR Heuristic device, a mental tool to aid in

discovery (Weinberg)

Systems Thinking

Problem contexts become more difficult to manage as they exhibit greater complexity, change and diversity, arising from two sources:

Systems – as they become larger and subject to more turbulence• (simple to complex)

Participants – (those with an interest in the problem situation) as their values beliefs and interests start to diverge• (unitary to pluralistic to coercive)

Syst

ems

simple / pluralistSimple / unitary simple / coercive

coercive

Complex / unitary

Participants

complex / coercive

Systems DynamicsOrganisational CyberneticsComplexity theory

complex / pluralist

Post Modern

pluralist

Emancipatory

unitary

Hard Systems Thinking:Operations Research

complex

Soft SystemsApproaches

simple

Systems Thinking Approaches

Analysis based on M.C. Jackson’s System of System Methodologies

Systems Dynamics

emergencyadmission rate

MAU occupancy

medical bedoccupancy

Risk of not meeting4 hr target

ED occupancy

GP referral rate

++ +

MAU diversion toED rate

+

+

+

number of medicaloutliers

+

Length of Stay+

MedicalDischarge Rate

-

Causal Loop Diagram - impact on anNHS hospital system of medical

admission rate and availability ofcontinuing care

Admission tomedical beds rate

+

+

Balancingfeedbackloop

+

Use of temporaryinpatient beds

Staff workload

+

+

Request extraward rounds

+

+

+

Risk of harm topatients

-

+

+

Risk of cancellingelective patients

+

Risk of breachingRTT targets

+

BalancingFeedback Loop

+Batching of work+

-

Staff fatigue

+

+

Availability of continuingcare (NHS or Social)

-

-

Surgical bedoccupancy +

+

Income

Costs

Cash ReleasingEfficiency Savings

+

++

+

+

Planned financialsurplus

+

-

SSM

1. Learn about a problem situation2. Formulate purposeful activity

models3. Debate the situation using the

models• Desirable and culturally feasible• Accommodations between

conflicting interests 4. Take action to improve

HOW DOES AN OPEN SYSTEM BEHAVE?

Variety

Ashby’s law of requisite variety

D T E

R

D T E

Variety

How much variety does a service process* have to absorb?• What is the input? • How much variety is there?• What are the different types?

• Service processes have a significant customer input (Sampson UST)

• 4 types, customer self, mind, information and belongings

Types of variety?

What variability?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wtfNE4z6a8

Everyone wants something different

DSC03439

Types of Variability (Frei)

1. Arrival, customers arrive at different times2. Request, customers want different things3. Capability, the capability of the customer

involved in producing the service 4. Effort, how much effort the customer puts in5. Subjective preference – customers opinion on

the service experience

If we have variability we need to know how muchWhy?

Volume

Qualities of “variety”*

Simple count of states Actual time of disturbance Frequency of occurrence of each state Spread / Closeness of states Impact of each state

* Capri conference paper

The disturbance model

  Qualities

Components

Variety as a count: how many different states can dimension be in

Real time – when does the disturbance occur

Frequency of occurrence of each state

Spread of states

Impact of each state

Arrival Volume          

Arrival time          

Requests made by/for customers

         

Capability of customer to do

         

Effort customer willing to exert

         

Subjective preference for how delivered

         

Useful things about ‘systems thinking’

Systemic concepts eg boundary, Weltanschauung, relationships, control, systemic concepts

It doesn’t arbitrarily split things up• Conforms more closely to problems of the ‘real world’

Checkland’s, what? how? why?• System in focus ±1

Systems thinkers have a problem with cause/effect

Tricky things

Its a great idea but its hard Systems journals are 1-2*, soft OR does

get published in 3-4* Doesn’t build theory

• Is it ‘a theory’? (it doesn’t say if this then this)

Issues

Advice, buy a copy, read it, let it influence you BUT don’t build your research on it

Recognise you have ‘reduced’, make that clear, consider the limitations

Are you a lumper or a splitter?