t e tradingED!E premim strategies mem#ers gide · 2012. 12. 24. · aim at without the cost of a win stake. Additionally, Betfair (unlike the bookies) will pay out on 3 places if

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the tradingEDGE premium strategies

members guide

© DTM Sports Trading Edge Ltd. Locke Street, Newport. NP20 5HL

Thanks for making the step and parting with your money to become a member

of the Sports Trading Edge community. We won’t stop working hard to make

sure that you have a profitable time with us.

As part of your membership and as a reward for joining we promised you

access to some of our premium strategies, well, you’ll find those strategies in

this guide.

This though is just the tip of the iceberg.

To really get the most out of the Sports Trading Edge service you need to get

involved. Find us in the forum, in the chat room or contact us on email. There

are more trades on the website and more are being added all the time.

Explore, read our blog, follow us on twitter, like us on facebook, add your

voice. We’re listening.

We’re here to help you on your sports trading journey.

Welcome


#1 - The Turbo Hughie The Turbo Hughie is a suped-up version of the Hughie place bet that it replaces. The Hughie is

named after Hughie Green of Double Your Money fame, as in time, the Turbo Hughie will double

your money. The Turbo Hughie is a very simple horse racing trade using the Back to Lay concept

played on the place only market at Betfair.

The Turbo Hughie is played in 3 parts. First a back bet is made. Then a mine is then placed in the

keep at 25% of the back price for the full the back stake plus £1. For example: Back £25 @1.97 then

mine £26 @1.24. The Turbo Hughie now returns £1.00 if the horse blows the mine but fails to place.

If the horse places the profit returned is £10.22.

As an extra step (played only if the back price is higher than @1.69) an additional place mine can be

placed at 10% of the back price, in this case @1.10, for the original back stake of £25. If the horse

blows this second mine and places we still make £9.68 (profit from the back stake less our liability

from the mines). If however the 2nd

mine blows but the horse is unplaced (surprisingly often) we

make £26.00 (profit from 2 mines less back stake.)

Why it works?

Race selection for the Turbo Hughie is (as always) paramount. We’re looking for frames where there

is value in backing a horse to place. Whilst many will argue that place backing is odds on the reality is

that any price above @1.34 in an 8 runner field is actually odds against. By playing for 3 places in an

8 runner field we have a 37.5% chance of a winning trade which means the strike rate for the Turbo

Hughie is very high.

Where’s theEDGE?

The tradingEDGE for the Turbo Hughie comes from the reduced staking level it requires when

compared to an each way bet. We’re only staking on the place side so effectively have 3 places to

aim at without the cost of a win stake. Additionally, Betfair (unlike the bookies) will pay out on 3

places if an 8 runner field is reduced to 7. They apply a reduction percentage but this is much fairer

then the bookies who just take your money if your horse finishes 3rd

of 7 when you placed your bet

in good faith when the field was still 8.

What’s the downside?

A horse finishing out of the place positions and not shortening sufficiently in price to blow the mines

will result in a total loss.

Calculation

The calculations for working out the two Turbo Hughie mine levels are as follows:

Take the back price of say @1.97, multiply 0.97 by 25% and then round up so;

0.97 x 25% = 0.2425 and the 1st

mine is placed @1.25 then;

If the back price is greater than @1.69, say @1.97 multiply 0.97 by 10% and then round up so;

0.97 x 10% = 0.097 then round up so the 2nd

mine is placed @ 1.10


#2 - The INDEMNIFIER This is a horse racing, traded bet played either via a bookmaker and Betfair or just via Betfair using

Betfair multiples and the exchange. The INDEMNIFIER trade is based on the each-way double or the

bet the bookies hate!

It’s played by placing an each-way double on two horses then laying mines on the place market of

the first horse as insurance if it finishes fourth. If the first horse wins we’ll then mine the second

horse on the win and place markets to lock-in a profit. If the first horses place we’ll mine the place

market as before and play a back to lay single on the win side.

Why it works

At Sports Trading Edge we try and identify two horses each day which are likely to place but

have a chance of upsetting the favourite and winning the race. The first of the 2 selections is

usually (but not always) the higher priced selection with the second our banker to allow us

to lock in the profit from the first horse if it has obliged and won.

The right selections are crucial for the long term-success of this trade. We carefully consider

the frame of the race, the going, betting activity and trainer and horse form before

recommending a trade. At Sports Trading Edges our overall win rate is 31.2%, combined win

and place 66% and place to win 47.2%.

Where’s theEDGE?

The each way double has a mathematical advantage made sharper by some clever lay

mines. Bookmakers dislike the each way double enormously. Why? Well if we take two

short priced horses @3.25 (9/4) and @3.00 (2/1) then play each-way singles on them you

will lose if both place. If you place an each-way double on the same two horses though you

will profit. That makes the each-way double uneconomic for the bookies.

The big return then comes if both horses win. Two winners in a double at these odds return

profits on our stake @8.80 (31/5). It’s much easier to consistently find winning horses at

@3.00 than @8.80 but combining them in a trade provides us with the profit we’re after.

We also take an insurance position by placing lay mines on the place side to at least recover

our stake if the horses finish outside the places.

Permutations

There are 9 possible outcomes which can occur when trading two horses in the

INDEMNIFIER:

1. Win/Win

2. Win/Place

3. Win/Lose

4. Place/Win

5. Place/Place

6. Place/Lose

7. Lose/Win

8. Lose/Place

9. Lose/Lose


By adapting our approach for each scenario we can lock-in a profit on 1,2,3,4, and 7 we may

even profit from 5, 8 and 9 if certain events unfold in our favour.

How it’s played

The main part of the INDEMNIFIER trade is the each-way double. This can be played in 2

ways:

1. Straight

£20 staked as £10 win and £10 place double on two horses.

2. Half equally divided

£20 staked as £5 win and £5 place double on two horses + £5 win and £5 place on

the first selection only. Returns from the first horse are then placed on the second

horse 50/50 on win and place.

To profit on the main part of the trade then we must have both horses at least place or the

double will lose. If we are very confident two horses will win then the double is played

straight (always each way though as insurance if we’re wrong).

The same applies if we think that the horses will only place i.e. two strong joint favourites

with our horse the best of the rest. If we are unsure however and think we may only get one

winner then it is more profitable to play the each-way double half equally divided.

In both options we have staked £20 so far. We now have £5 available for hedging using our

normal £25 liability per trade. What we do now is take insurance if the first horse does not

place so we can hopefully recover our stake. We place a lay mine on the first horse not to

place @1.25 for a liability of £5. If the horse wins or places we will lose or £5 mine but our

each-way double trade is still in place for the second horse. If the horse loses and blows our

place mine @1.25 we will have scratched the trade.

Over the longer term we are more likely to have one winner from two selections than two

winners, which makes it wise to play part of the INDEMNIFIER trade via the equally divided

method. Whilst two winners will always be profitable, a first leg winner can be almost as

good news with the HedgeHUNTER trade letting us a lock-in profit before second horse

runs! A place followed by a win will give a small profit with the half equally divided method.

Worked Example

Let’s work through a half equally divided INDEMNIFIER an example using our two horses

Harvey’s Hope @3.25 and Lost Glory @3.00 using a maximum stake of £25.

Step1:

We want to play a £10 each-way double (£20) so we divide our stake in two and place a £5

each-way double on Harvey’s Hope @3.25 and Lost Glory @3.00. (£10)

Step 2:

We now place a £5 each-way single on Harvey’s Hope (£10) and a £5 liability place mine

@1.25

Step 3:

We then calculate the stake for the next horse by assessing the RETURNS from Harvey’s

Hope and splitting them equally for an each-way bet on the Lost Glory.


Step 4:

� If Harvey’s Hope won we now need to play the HedgeHUNTER trade on Lost Glory.

� If Harvey’s Hope placed we play a win single for 25% of original stake (£5) on Lost

Glory with a hedged mine at 50% of the price, plus a place mine @1.25 for £5

liability.

� If Harvey’s Hope lost we then play a win single for 25% of original stake (£5) on Lost

Glory with a hedged mine at 50% of the price.

What’s the downside?

We have got move possibilities covered and over time (with the right selections) this trade is

very profitable. There are downsides though, the problem comes with a first leg loser that

fails to shorten in price enough to blow our mine and recover stakes. Here we look to

recover some of that loss with a win single on the second leg. If that fails to win then we are

looking at a total loss. Fortunately this is fairly rare as with careful selected frames we have

a tradingEDGE.


#3 - The HedgeHUNTER This is a defensive strategy played in horse racing as a complimentary trade to the

INDEMNIFIER. It is placed exclusively on Betfair using staggered mine both win and place to

lock-in a profit whatever the result of the race.

Why it works

The HedgeHUNTER is so successful largely because we find ourselves in a great position

before we use it. The HedgeHUNTER comes into effect only after the first horse in an

INDEMNINIFIER has won. It can also be played on the final leg of other profitable multiples.

Where’s theEDGE?

We use the HedgeHUNTER to guarantee a profit no matter what the outcome of the race.

To do that we give away some of our potential profit in return for locked-in profits. Those

amongst you who are more prone to a gamble will think this is crazy! Why give away your

winnings? Well because they are potential winnings and we’ll only get them if we’re right.

With the HedgeHUNTER we will win every time. In the long-term theses guaranteed wins

will outweigh the returns from un-hedged winners and those that lose.

How it’s played

The first step in the HedgeHUNTER is to calculate the potential returns if our horse were to

win or place. Once we know that, we can decide on the percentage of our winnings we’re

prepared to give back to lock-in a profit. Using that information we’ll lay a little on the win

and place markets pre-race to recover stakes and make a little profit.

In certain scenario’s we may lay off more pre-race (if we have a particularly large potential

pay-off) but typically we will place further mines in play assuming the horse will shorten in

price allowing us to lock-in more profit with lower liability. This may be the only option if the

second horse has drifted badly before the off.

Worked Example

Let’s look at the HedgeHUNTER from a practical example. Here we have two horses Silent

Snow @4.00 in the 3.00pm and Very Edgy @3.50 in the 5.00pm. The trade is a £10 each-way

INDEMNIFIER played half equally divided.

Silent Snow duly obliges and wins the 3.00pm. We can now calculate our position going into

the second leg:

1. Each way single returns £28 which we would now play 50/50 on Very Edgy as an

each-way single

2. The straight each way double carriers forward £20 on the win side and £8 on the

place side so combined we now have £34 on the win side and £22 on the place side

riding on Very Edgy.

3. If Very Edgy wins we stand to make £100.40. A very good potential position to be in.

4. If Very Edgy places we lose on the win side but still see a profit of £15.40 from the

place.


The difference between a win profit and a place profit is £85! That’s quite a margin to

gamble on and I don’t know about but that makes me feel Very Edgy! Eh? Anyway it makes

sense to lock-in a profit with the HedgeHUNTER trade.

Applying the HedgeHUNTER

Depending on your attitude to risk you can adjust your stakes accordingly but in this

scenario this is how we would advise you play it.

Step 1:

Remove initial stake from profits on the half equally divided each-way single. Rather than

placing the £28 return from Silent Snow as a £14 each way trade on Very Edgy instead play a

£4 each-way bet which has no created a no lose position (but also no win) on the second leg.

Step 2:

Our potential win profit has now been reduced to £60 on the win side but we have

recovered our stake so now it is all about locking in a profit. We decide we’re prepared to

give back 50% of our potential win which sets the limit of liability we can accept.

We lay £5 @3.50 pre-race for a liability of £12.50. We then place 3 in-play mines in the keep

for £[email protected] (-£7.50) £7.50 @1.80 (-£6.00) and £8@ 1.50 (-£4.00). The total win liability is

£30.00 against a profit of £60 leaving £30.00 if Very Edgy wins and up to £30.00 if it loses.

Step 3:

We now mine the place side to protect us from Very Edgy failing to get into the race and

finishing out of the places. We have £6 profit to come from the main double for a place

finish, plus at least £5 if Very Edgy fails to win thanks to our pre-race win mine. Again are

prepared to give up 50% of our profit.

Pre-race we lay £5 @1.5 (-£2.50), then place a mine @1.25 for £10 (-£2.50) for a total place

liability of £5.00.

Optional mines

We will often put in some very low mines to profit from our horse losing by a short margin

or finishing just outside of the points. On the win side we’ll often mine @1.21 for a £3

liability and on the place side @1.11 for a £2 liability. For a £5 liability we have the potential

to win £32.46 if for example our horse fell at the last.

Summary

In this scenario the HedgeHUNTER strategy pays £30.00 for a win double. Up to £25.00 for a

win/place and up to £55.00 for a win/lose. Crucially though we are guaranteed a profit of

£10 whatever the result, that’s 50% ROI locked in before the start with only upside to come!

It may be less exciting trading this way but these small consistent wins add up and give you

the tradingEDGE for the long-term.

Don’t gamble with your profits!


#4 - The Locksmith This rugby trade is a combination of a handicap bet and covering margin positions which is then

managed in-play via a bookmaker or Betfair to lock-in a profitable outcome whatever the result. It

has proven to be one of our most consistently profitable sports trades.

Why it works The Locksmith works by creating a spread around the usually very tight bookmaker handicaps. As the

match unfolds we then take advantage of in-play opportunities to further widen the spread and lock-

in a profitable result before the conclusion of the match. The bookie’s handicappers in both rugby

codes are very shrewd and you will generally find that there is very little difference in handicap lines

when comparing prices between bookmakers before the off. These however will shorten and widen

in play and that creates a tradable position.

Where’s the edge? The trade is played by taking a position before kick-off, on what; in our view, is the most favourable

handicap line. From this initial position further cover positions are taken either as margin bets to

widen the spread, or saver bets as insurance if the original position may become vulnerable. This

detracts a little from the overall profit but it crucially protects the downside.

This position taking trade alone is profitable in its own right and can be left unmanaged. The edge

comes from taking additional handicap margins in play as they move away from the likely outcome

and create a wider spread which will lock-in a guaranteed profit and in some cases a double win

which is very healthy for your trading bank!

Worked example Salford v Huddersfield; Salford have a handicap line in their favour of plus +8 and we back them to

win the handicap line for £24 plus £1 on the handicap tie (amazing how often it happens). In the

match Salford race into a 12-0 lead and having checked the in-play bookies with oddschecker,

(generally Bet365 and Paddy Power offer the best in play opportunities) we decide to lock-in the

trade.

The best offer is Huddersfield plus +4 after only 30 minutes of the game. That creates a 12 point

spread so we decide to play a trade equivalent to one third of the initial stake (£8) plus a tiny

proportionate amount on the handicap tie (in this case £0.35) to ensure a certain win. By making

this in-play trade we now only need the result to be within 12 points of the original handicap and

we’re guaranteed to win, has to be good hasn’t it?

Always give back a bit to protect the downside.

expect the unexpected

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Sports Trading Edge Ltd. Locke Street, Newport. NP20 5HL

Documents

t e tradingED!E premim strategies mem#ers gide · 2012. 12. 24. · aim at without the cost of a win stake. Additionally, Betfair (unlike the bookies) will pay out on 3 places if