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Table A1: List of Self-Determination Disputes (1960-2005)
Country SD group Number of civil war onsets Region
Afghanistan Tajiks 2 South Asia
Afghanistan Uzbeks 1 South Asia
Algeria Berbers 0 Middle East/North Africa
Angola Cabindans 3 Sub-Saharan Africa
Australia Aboriginals 0 Oceania
Azerbaijan Armenians 2 (former) Soviet Union
Azerbaijan Lezgins 0 (former) Soviet Union
Bangladesh Chittagong Hill Peoples 1 South Asia
Belgium Flemings 0 Western Europe
Belgium Walloons 0 Western Europe
Bhutan Lhotshampas 0 South Asia
Bosnia Croats 1 Eastern Europe
Bosnia Serbs 1 Eastern Europe
Brazil Indigenous Peoples 0 South/Latin America
Cameroon Westerners 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Canada Indigenous Peoples 0 North America
Canada Quebecois 0 North America
Chad Southerners 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Chile Indigenous Peoples 0 South/Latin America
China Mongols 0 East Asia
China Tibetans 0 East Asia
China Uighers 0 East Asia
Colombia Indigenous Peoples 0 South/Latin America
Comoros Anjouanese 1 Sub-Saharan Africa
Congo-Kinshasa Bakongo 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Congo-Kinshasa Lunda and Yeke 1 Sub-Saharan Africa
Croatia Serbs 1 Eastern Europe
Cyprus Turkish Cypriots 1 Middle East/North Africa
Djibouti Afars 2 Sub-Saharan Africa
Ecuador Lowland Indigenous Peoples 0 South/Latin America Equatorial Guinea Bubis 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopia Afars 2 Sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopia Eritreans 1 Sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopia Oromos 2 Sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopia Somalis 3 Sub-Saharan Africa
Finland Saami 0 Western Europe
France Basque 0 Western Europe
2
France Bretons 0 Western Europe
France Corsicans 0 Western Europe
Georgia Abkhazians 1 (former) Soviet Union
Georgia Adzhars 0 (former) Soviet Union
Georgia South Ossetians 2 (former) Soviet Union
India Assamese 2 South Asia
India Bodos 2 South Asia
India Kashmiri Buddhist Ladakhis 0 South Asia
India Kashmiri Hindus 0 South Asia
India Kashmiri Muslims 1 South Asia
India Mizos 1 South Asia
India Nagas 3 South Asia
India Reang (Bru) 0 South Asia
India Sikhs 1 South Asia
India Tripuras 2 South Asia
Indonesia Acehnese 2 East Asia
Indonesia East Timorese 3 East Asia
Indonesia Papuans 3 East Asia
Iran Kurds 4 Middle East/North Africa
Iraq Kurds 3 Middle East/North Africa
Israel Palestinians 1 Middle East/North Africa
Italy Sardinians 0 Western Europe
Italy South Tyrolians 0 Western Europe
Kazakhstan Russians 0 (former) Soviet Union
Kyrgyzstan Uzbeks 0 (former) Soviet Union
Laos Hmong 0 East Asia
Macedonia Albanians 0 Eastern Europe
Mali Tuaregs 2 Sub-Saharan Africa
Mexico Indigenous Peoples (non-Mayan or Zapotecs) 0 South/Latin America
Moldova Gagauz 0 (former) Soviet Union
Moldova Trans-Dniester Slavs 1 (former) Soviet Union
Morocco Saharawis 1 Middle East/North Africa
Myanmar Chin/Zomis 0 East Asia
Myanmar Kachins 1 East Asia
Myanmar Karaenni 3 East Asia
Myanmar Karens 2 East Asia
Myanmar Mons 2 East Asia
Myanmar Rohingyas 2 East Asia
Myanmar Shan 3 East Asia
3
Myanmar Wa 1 East Asia
Namibia East Caprivians 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Nicaragua Indigenous Peoples and Creoles 0 South/Latin America
Niger Tuaregs 1 Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigeria Ibos 1 Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigeria Ijaw 1 Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigeria Ogoni 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigeria Oron 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigeria Yoruba 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Norway Saami 0 Western Europe
Pakistan Baluchis 1 South Asia
Pakistan Bengalis 1 South Asia
Pakistan Pashtuns 0 South Asia
Pakistan Sarakis 0 South Asia
Pakistan Sindhis 0 South Asia Papua New Guinea Bougainvilleans 1 Oceania
Peru Lowland Indigenous Peoples 0 South/Latin America
Philippines Igorots 0 East Asia
Philippines Moros 2 East Asia
Romania Magyars 0 Eastern Europe
Russia Buryat 0 (former) Soviet Union
Russia Chechens 2 (former) Soviet Union
Russia Kumyks 0 (former) Soviet Union
Russia Lezgins 0 (former) Soviet Union
Russia Tatars 0 (former) Soviet Union
Russia Yakut 0 (former) Soviet Union
Senegal Casamacias 1 Sub-Saharan Africa
Slovakia Hungarians 0 Eastern Europe
Somalia Isaaq 1 Sub-Saharan Africa
Somalia Puntland Darods 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa Afrikaners 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa Khoisan 1 Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa Zulus 1 Sub-Saharan Africa
Spain Basques 3 Western Europe
Spain Catalans 0 Western Europe
Sri Lanka Muslims 0 South Asia
Sri Lanka Tamils 1 South Asia
Sudan Nuba 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Sudan Southerners 2 Sub-Saharan Africa
Sweden Saami 0 Western Europe
Switzerland Jurassians 0 Western Europe
4
Taiwan Aboriginal Taiwanese 0 East Asia
Tanzania Zanzibaris 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Thailand Malay-Muslims 1 East Asia Trinidad and Tobago Tobagonians 0 South/Latin America
Turkey Kurds 1 Middle East/North Africa
Uganda Baganda 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Ukraine Crimean Russians 0 (former) Soviet Union
Ukraine Crimean Tatars 0 (former) Soviet Union
United Kingdom Catholics 2 Western Europe
United Kingdom Cornish 0 Western Europe
United Kingdom Scots 0 Western Europe
United States Indigenous Peoples 0 North America
United States Native Hawaiians 0 North America
United States Puerto Ricans 0 North America
Uzbekistan Tajiks 0 (former) Soviet Union
Vietnam Montagnards 0 East Asia
Yugoslavia Albanians 0 Eastern Europe
Yugoslavia Croats 1 Eastern Europe
Yugoslavia Hungarians 0 Eastern Europe
Yugoslavia Kosovar Albanians 1 Eastern Europe
Yugoslavia Montenegrins 0 Eastern Europe
Yugoslavia Sandzak Muslims 0 Eastern Europe
Yugoslavia Slovenes 1 Eastern Europe
Zambia Lozi 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
Zimbabwe Ndebele 0 Sub-Saharan Africa
5
Table A2: Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset
Condemnations Force Renewals
All First All First
Direct respective action 0.216 1.974*** 0.00492 0.234*
(0.195) (0.327) (0.160) (0.133)
Other direct actions -0.0434 0.153 -0.0139 0.149**
(0.0367) (0.105) (0.125) (0.0750)
Indirect respective action -0.0656 1.830*** 0.0884
(0.200) (0.568) (0.0673)
Other indirect actions -0.0412 -1.747*** -0.0921* -0.00919
(0.0793) (0.602) (0.0483) (0.0762)
Factions (logged) 1.035*** 0.940*** 1.035*** 0.871***
(0.201) (0.267) (0.203) (0.269)
Previous concessions -0.311 -0.710 -0.291 -0.639
(0.258) (0.436) (0.265) (0.426)
Democracy -0.586** -0.641* -0.661** -0.796**
(0.290) (0.377) (0.299) (0.372)
Neighboring kin groups 0.615** 0.342 0.612** 0.141
(0.264) (0.406) (0.268) (0.391)
GDP per capita (logged) -0.149 -0.371** -0.158 -0.277
(0.109) (0.188) (0.110) (0.197)
Number of groups 0.0756** 0.0288 0.0772** 0.0474
(0.0328) (0.0380) (0.0335) (0.0400)
Economic discrimination 0.0363 -0.0251 0.0199 0.0300
(0.0884) (0.151) (0.0915) (0.154)
Risk time -0.369*** -0.349*** -0.365*** -0.368***
(0.0651) (0.101) (0.0640) (0.104)
Risk time squared 0.0164*** 0.0146*** 0.0162*** 0.0163***
(0.00371) (0.00495) (0.00368) (0.00523)
Risk time cubed -0.000207*** -0.000166** -0.000204*** -0.000196***
(5.80e-05) (6.59e-05) (5.80e-05) (7.12e-05)
Constant -2.261** -0.0988 -2.164** -0.807
(0.977) (1.646) (0.998) (1.760)
Observations 2334 1869 2334 1835
Robust standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test
6
Table A3: Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset
Diplomacy New Force Sanctions Condemnations Force Renewal
Direct respective action -1.503** 0.403 2.921*** 0.221 0.0175
(0.692) (0.247) (1.058) (0.212) (0.183)
Other direct actions 0.208*** -0.0178 -0.0816 -0.0420 -0.0191
(0.0758) (0.0217) (0.0694) (0.0352) (0.140)
Indirect respective action 0.259 -4.387** -0.380** -0.0600 0.0941
(0.442) (1.733) (0.164) (0.194) (0.0740)
Other indirect actions -0.0735 0.0236 0.0246 -0.0279 -0.0781
(0.0807) (0.0479) (0.0387) (0.0750) (0.0489)
Factions (logged) 1.127*** 1.036*** 1.114*** 1.110*** 1.101***
(0.227) (0.230) (0.222) (0.227) (0.227)
Previous Concessions -0.259 -0.242 -0.224 -0.285 -0.271
(0.262) (0.262) (0.260) (0.262) (0.270)
Democracy -0.608** -0.565* -0.680** -0.640** -0.691**
(0.301) (0.297) (0.322) (0.305) (0.317)
Neighboring kin groups 0.713*** 0.738*** 0.664** 0.680** 0.666**
(0.262) (0.269) (0.272) (0.268) (0.271)
GDP per capita (logged) 0.0911 0.0558 0.0713 0.0427 0.0204
(0.143) (0.136) (0.156) (0.147) (0.158)
Number of groups 0.0616* 0.0630* 0.0671** 0.0614* 0.0646*
(0.0339) (0.0337) (0.0342) (0.0354) (0.0351)
Economic discrimination 0.0216 0.0139 0.0141 0.0118 0.000996
(0.101) (0.0998) (0.102) (0.0988) (0.103)
Cold War 0.514 0.419 0.485 0.421 0.386
(0.316) (0.311) (0.313) (0.311) (0.313)
Eastern Europe 0.462 0.369 0.241 0.390 0.461
7
(0.472) (0.507) (0.540) (0.490) (0.514)
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.967* 0.951* 0.757 0.804 0.779
(0.562) (0.568) (0.653) (0.609) (0.651)
Asia 0.794 0.761 0.650 0.672 0.661
(0.490) (0.510) (0.545) (0.521) (0.550)
Risk time -0.378*** -0.366*** -0.358*** -0.368*** -0.365***
(0.0638) (0.0619) (0.0644) (0.0642) (0.0632)
Risk time squared 0.0166*** 0.0159*** 0.0156*** 0.0161*** 0.0160***
(0.00375) (0.00351) (0.00376) (0.00373) (0.00371)
Risk time cubed -0.000210*** -0.000200*** -0.000196*** -0.000203*** -0.000202***
(6.04e-05) (5.48e-05) (6.02e-05) (5.91e-05) (5.96e-05)
Constant -4.887*** -4.509*** -4.610*** -4.326*** -4.126**
(1.485) (1.420) (1.686) (1.544) (1.680)
Observations 2334 2334 2334 2334 2334
Robust standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test
8
Table A4: Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset
Diplomacy New Force Sanctions Condemnations Force Renewal
Direct respective action -1.251* 0.445* 3.098*** 0.230 0.00677
(0.696) (0.246) (1.194) (0.208) (0.159)
Other direct actions 0.192** -0.00505 -0.0648 -0.0277 0.00372
(0.0800) (0.0200) (0.0677) (0.0328) (0.127)
Indirect respective action 0.166 -4.550*** -0.290 -0.00811 0.0792
(0.433) (1.678) (0.177) (0.200) (0.0680)
Other indirect actions -0.0499 0.0423 0.0232 -0.0344 -0.0680
(0.0714) (0.0549) (0.0374) (0.0768) (0.0570)
Factions (logged) 1.053*** 0.981*** 1.053*** 1.052*** 1.046***
(0.200) (0.198) (0.200) (0.201) (0.203)
Previous Concessions -0.305 -0.267 -0.289 -0.329 -0.307
(0.258) (0.257) (0.255) (0.258) (0.264)
Democracy -0.457 -0.406 -0.475 -0.501 -0.584*
(0.316) (0.316) (0.333) (0.312) (0.324)
Neighboring kin groups 0.696*** 0.705*** 0.633** 0.656** 0.643**
(0.266) (0.265) (0.273) (0.267) (0.270)
GDP per capita (logged) -0.194 -0.227* -0.193 -0.196 -0.192
(0.119) (0.121) (0.121) (0.120) (0.119)
Number of groups 0.0804** 0.0840*** 0.0813** 0.0762** 0.0777**
(0.0324) (0.0318) (0.0340) (0.0330) (0.0336)
Economic discrimination 0.0283 0.0255 0.0298 0.0225 0.0109
(0.0911) (0.0899) (0.0919) (0.0899) (0.0924)
Peacekeeping Operation -0.563 -0.705 -0.579 -0.509 -0.399
(0.537) (0.612) (0.552) (0.523) (0.526)
Risk time -0.379*** -0.369*** -0.361*** -0.372*** -0.367***
9
(0.0648) (0.0634) (0.0655) (0.0654) (0.0641)
Risk time squared 0.0170*** 0.0165*** 0.0162*** 0.0166*** 0.0163***
(0.00365) (0.00347) (0.00368) (0.00366) (0.00362)
Risk time cubed -0.000216*** -0.000208*** -0.000205*** -0.000210*** -0.000206***
(5.71e-05) (5.25e-05) (5.75e-05) (5.66e-05) (5.65e-05)
Constant -2.008** -1.756* -2.034* -1.909* -1.906*
(1.016) (1.016) (1.043) (1.033) (1.040)
Observations 2334 2334 2334 2334 2334
Robust standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test
10
Table A5: Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset
Diplomacy New Force Sanctions Condemnations Force Renewal
Direct respective action -1.413** 0.349 2.789*** 0.234 0.00629
(0.700) (0.230) (0.972) (0.189) (0.163)
Other direct actions 0.190** -0.0205 -0.0764 -0.0448 -0.0122
(0.0767) (0.0220) (0.0650) (0.0353) (0.128)
Indirect respective action 0.00148 -3.695** -0.487*** -0.0751 0.0974
(0.507) (1.551) (0.161) (0.207) (0.0754)
Other indirect actions -0.0610 -0.00458 0.0170 -0.0482 -0.103**
(0.0904) (0.0508) (0.0392) (0.0829) (0.0510)
Factions (logged) 1.023*** 0.949*** 1.035*** 1.027*** 1.027***
(0.199) (0.200) (0.199) (0.199) (0.202)
Previous Concessions -0.243 -0.221 -0.211 -0.271 -0.242
(0.252) (0.253) (0.249) (0.252) (0.259)
Democracy -0.537* -0.507* -0.587** -0.568** -0.661**
(0.289) (0.287) (0.296) (0.285) (0.295)
Neighboring kin groups 0.638** 0.617** 0.585** 0.604** 0.603**
(0.253) (0.255) (0.264) (0.258) (0.262)
GDP per capita (logged) -0.166 -0.165 -0.170 -0.171 -0.189*
(0.110) (0.105) (0.114) (0.110) (0.115)
Number of groups 0.0691** 0.0750** 0.0680* 0.0659** 0.0650*
(0.0327) (0.0319) (0.0348) (0.0330) (0.0342)
Economic discrimination 0.00114 0.0173 -0.00731 -0.00379 -0.0314
(0.0908) (0.0910) (0.0972) (0.0918) (0.0966)
Group Size 0.853 0.461 0.745 0.708 0.473
(1.470) (1.474) (1.505) (1.474) (1.490)
11
Oil/Gas reserves 0.0377 0.0238 0.0424 0.0370 0.0418
(0.0265) (0.0282) (0.0303) (0.0283) (0.0292)
Risk time -0.377*** -0.367*** -0.360*** -0.368*** -0.362***
(0.0644) (0.0630) (0.0652) (0.0651) (0.0640)
Risk time squared 0.0169*** 0.0163*** 0.0161*** 0.0164*** 0.0161***
(0.00373) (0.00355) (0.00379) (0.00374) (0.00372)
Risk time cubed -0.000216*** -0.000207*** -0.000206*** -0.000208*** -0.000205***
(5.89e-05) (5.50e-05) (6.02e-05) (5.87e-05) (5.88e-05)
Constant -2.288** -2.210** -2.275** -2.178** -1.986**
(0.968) (0.934) (1.008) (0.961) (1.009)
Observations 2,230 2,230 2,230 2,230 2,230
Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test
12
Table A6: Original Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset (showing cubic polynomial of risk time)
Diplomacy New Force Sanctions
All First All First All First
Direct respective action -1.358** -5.434** 0.345 -0.0148 2.756***
(0.690) (2.165) (0.231) (0.405) (0.965)
Other direct actions 0.180** 0.657*** -0.0198 0.214* -0.0781 0.159
(0.0762) (0.185) (0.0223) (0.117) (0.0660) (0.123)
Indirect respective action 0.0723 -1.552 -3.847** -4.477* -0.411*** -0.201
(0.496) (1.014) (1.582) (2.638) (0.157) (0.301)
Other indirect actions -0.0616 0.149 0.00442 0.000328 0.0128 -0.0193
(0.0866) (0.136) (0.0472) (0.0730) (0.0375) (0.0429)
Factions (logged) 1.030*** 0.945*** 0.957*** 0.842*** 1.037*** 0.864***
(0.200) (0.267) (0.199) (0.272) (0.200) (0.261)
Previous concessions -0.283 -0.587 -0.253 -0.622 -0.258 -0.598
(0.257) (0.426) (0.257) (0.425) (0.255) (0.442)
Democracy -0.553* -0.826** -0.523* -0.782** -0.590** -0.761**
(0.292) (0.382) (0.289) (0.376) (0.300) (0.380)
Neighboring kin groups 0.648** 0.176 0.641** 0.176 0.591** 0.120
(0.260) (0.388) (0.258) (0.397) (0.269) (0.397)
GDP per capita (logged) -0.143 -0.345* -0.158 -0.295 -0.140 -0.307
(0.110) (0.195) (0.104) (0.198) (0.111) (0.201)
Number of groups 0.0788** 0.0430 0.0823*** 0.0503 0.0796** 0.0448
(0.0320) (0.0398) (0.0314) (0.0392) (0.0337) (0.0404)
Economic discrimination 0.0427 0.0154 0.0429 0.0110 0.0424 0.0135
(0.0899) (0.156) (0.0882) (0.154) (0.0915) (0.156)
Risk time -0.378*** -0.387*** -0.368*** -0.365*** -0.361*** -0.327***
(0.0645) (0.107) (0.0629) (0.104) (0.0653) (0.102)
13
Risk time squared 0.0169*** 0.0172*** 0.0163*** 0.0161*** 0.0161*** 0.0142***
(0.00370) (0.00544) (0.00351) (0.00524) (0.00374) (0.00505)
Risk time cubed -0.000214*** -0.000208*** -0.000206*** -0.000194*** -0.000204*** -0.000169**
(5.84e-05) (7.41e-05) (5.41e-05) (7.09e-05) (5.93e-05) (6.80e-05)
Constant -2.365** -0.321 -2.230** -0.657 -2.409** -0.681
(0.979) (1.738) (0.935) (1.756) (1.011) (1.778)
Observations 2334 1869 2334 1869 2334 1867
Robust standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test
14
Table A7: SUR Models of New Armed Conflict Onset
Direct Diplomacy Direct Sanctions
Outcome Direct Diplomacy Outcome Direct Sanctions
Direct Diplomacy -0.263***
(0.0863)
Direct Other Action 0.0412*** 0.0920***
(0.00868) (0.000971)
Direct Sanctions 0.338***
(0.0493)
Direct Other Action 0.00413 0.0302***
(0.00365) (0.00159)
Indirect Active Actions -0.00212 -0.00186*** -0.00152 -0.000346
(0.00162) (0.000437) (0.00160) (0.000757)
Factions (logged) 0.0180*** 0.00128 0.0177*** -0.00113
(0.00540) (0.00150) (0.00534) (0.00260)
Previous Concessions -0.00988 -0.000859 -0.0103 4.03e-05
(0.00833) (0.00231) (0.00826) (0.00401)
Democracy -0.0118 0.00355 -0.0105 -0.0109***
(0.00803) (0.00232) (0.00794) (0.00403)
Neighboring kin groups 0.00242 0.00408** 0.00311 -0.00168
(0.00720) (0.00202) (0.00714) (0.00351)
GDP per capita (logged) -0.00458 -0.00366*** -0.00492 -0.000392
(0.00381) (0.00124) (0.00377) (0.00215)
Number of groups 0.00145 0.000685** 0.00125 0.000260
(0.00102) (0.000284) (0.00101) (0.000492)
Economic discrimination 0.00202 0.000953 0.00140 0.00171
(0.00297) (0.000848) (0.00294) (0.00147)
15
Risk time -0.00818*** -0.00722***
(0.00186) (0.00185)
Risk time squared 0.000325*** 0.000283***
(8.33e-05) (8.27e-05)
Rist time cubed -3.56e-06*** -3.08e-06***
(1.03e-06) (1.02e-06)
Cold War -0.00129 -0.0115***
(0.00231) (0.00400)
Western Democracy 0.00631* 0.0119*
(0.00351) (0.00607)
P-5 State 0.00249 -0.00331
(0.00299) (0.00518)
P-5 Ally 0.000775 0.00415
(0.00228) (0.00394)
Constant 0.0869** 0.0174* 0.0864** 0.00646
(0.0341) (0.0104) (0.0338) (0.0180)
Correlation of the residuals .007 (p=0.93) .043 (p=0.84)
Observations 1,867 1,867 1,867 1,867
Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test
16
Table A8: Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset, Direct Actions
Diplomacy New Force Sanctions Condemnations
Force Renewal
Direct respective action -1.370** 0.0755 2.833*** 0.228 -0.0249
(0.694) (0.205) (0.929) (0.180) (0.138)
Other direct actions 0.181** -0.00938 -0.0669 -0.0445 0.0153
(0.0764) (0.0191) (0.0570) (0.0359) (0.0967)
All indirect actions -0.0541 -0.0518 -0.0476 -0.0591 -0.0521
(0.0438) (0.0469) (0.0478) (0.0427) (0.0480)
Factions (logged) 1.030*** 1.029*** 1.012*** 1.034*** 1.026***
(0.199) (0.199) (0.196) (0.199) (0.198)
Previous Concessions -0.289 -0.299 -0.270 -0.315 -0.302
(0.257) (0.258) (0.251) (0.256) (0.263)
Democracy -0.564* -0.595** -0.536* -0.585** -0.599**
(0.292) (0.292) (0.290) (0.289) (0.292)
Neighboring kin groups 0.654** 0.616** 0.604** 0.618** 0.614**
(0.260) (0.263) (0.266) (0.264) (0.263)
GDP per capita (logged) -0.145 -0.142 -0.138 -0.149 -0.141
(0.108) (0.108) (0.109) (0.109) (0.107)
Number of groups 0.0785** 0.0758** 0.0812** 0.0754** 0.0759**
(0.0318) (0.0323) (0.0326) (0.0325) (0.0323)
Economic discrimination 0.0392 0.0368 0.0501 0.0368 0.0372
(0.0890) (0.0896) (0.0907) (0.0881) (0.0896)
Risk time -0.381*** -0.373*** -0.362*** -0.372*** -0.373***
(0.0645) (0.0636) (0.0640) (0.0640) (0.0627)
Risk time squared 0.0170*** 0.0165*** 0.0161*** 0.0165*** 0.0165***
(0.00368) (0.00360) (0.00361) (0.00363) (0.00356)
17
Risk time cubed -0.000216*** -0.000209*** -0.000204*** -0.000209*** -0.000209***
(5.79e-05) (5.63e-05) (5.61e-05) (5.68e-05) (5.58e-05)
Constant -2.339** -2.301** -2.446** -2.255** -2.306**
(0.964) (0.970) (0.986) (0.972) (0.966)
Observations 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334
Robust standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test
18
Table A9: Logit Models of Armed Conflict Onset, Indirect Actions
Diplomacy New Force Sanctions Condemnations
Force Renewal
Indirect respective action
0.127 -3.296*** -0.390*** -0.1000 0.0732
(0.490) (1.238) (0.146) (0.202) (0.0470)
Other indirect actions -0.0677 0.00323 0.000774 -0.0214 -0.0918*
(0.0905) (0.0453) (0.0351) (0.0789) (0.0478)
All direct actions 0.0346 0.0401 0.0312 0.0333 0.0301
(0.0238) (0.0256) (0.0237) (0.0237) (0.0242)
Factions (logged) 1.026*** 0.960*** 1.052*** 1.028*** 1.032***
(0.200) (0.201) (0.203) (0.201) (0.204)
Previous Concessions -0.300 -0.281 -0.288 -0.303 -0.283
(0.261) (0.261) (0.263) (0.263) (0.263)
Democracy -0.592** -0.547* -0.661** -0.612** -0.667**
(0.292) (0.288) (0.303) (0.291) (0.299)
Neighboring kin groups 0.597** 0.633** 0.594** 0.599** 0.599**
(0.263) (0.260) (0.268) (0.264) (0.269)
GDP per capita (logged) -0.140 -0.163 -0.147 -0.144 -0.159
(0.108) (0.104) (0.109) (0.107) (0.110)
Number of groups 0.0824** 0.0870*** 0.0807** 0.0826** 0.0833**
(0.0322) (0.0314) (0.0333) (0.0325) (0.0333)
Economic discrimination
0.0590 0.0553 0.0442 0.0526 0.0363
(0.0903) (0.0891) (0.0905) (0.0892) (0.0913)
Risk time -0.371*** -0.373*** -0.371*** -0.369*** -0.364***
(0.0632) (0.0628) (0.0642) (0.0642) (0.0644)
19
Risk time squared 0.0164*** 0.0166*** 0.0165*** 0.0164*** 0.0162***
(0.00361) (0.00352) (0.00372) (0.00367) (0.00370)
Risk time cubed -0.000208*** -0.000209*** -0.000209*** -0.000207*** -0.000203***
(5.69e-05) (5.44e-05) (5.91e-05) (5.77e-05) (5.84e-05)
Constant -2.421** -2.247** -2.336** -2.392** -2.256**
(0.976) (0.935) (0.992) (0.965) (0.997)
Observations 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334 2,334
Robust standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.10, two-tailed test
20
Figure A1: Differences in control-variable means, comparing observation-years without each type of intervention to those with the intervention
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Facons(logged)
PreviousConcessions
Democracy
Neighboringkingroups
GDPpercapita(logged)
Numberofgroups
Economicdiscriminaon
Diplomacy,Direct
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Facons(logged)
PreviousConcessions
Democracy
Neighboringkingroups
GDPpercapita(logged)
Numberofgroups
Economicdiscriminaon
Diplomacy,Indirect
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Facons(logged)
PreviousConcessions
Democracy
Neighboringkingroups
GDPpercapita(logged)
Numberofgroups
Economicdiscriminaon
NewForce,Direct
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Facons(logged)
PreviousConcessions
Democracy
Neighboringkingroups
GDPpercapita(logged)
Numberofgroups
Economicdiscriminaon
NewForce,Indirect
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Facons(logged)
PreviousConcessions
Democracy
Neighboringkingroups
GDPpercapita(logged)
Numberofgroups
Economicdiscriminaon
Sanc ons,Direct
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Facons(logged)
PreviousConcessions
Democracy
Neighboringkingroups
GDPpercapita(logged)
Numberofgroups
Economicdiscriminaon
Sanc ons,Indirect
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Facons(logged)
PreviousConcessions
Democracy
Neighboringkingroups
GDPpercapita(logged)
Numberofgroups
Economicdiscriminaon
Condemna ons,Direct
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Facons(logged)
PreviousConcessions
Democracy
Neighboringkingroups
GDPpercapita(logged)
Numberofgroups
Economicdiscriminaon
Condemna ons,Indirect
21
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Facons(logged)
PreviousConcessions
Democracy
Neighboringkingroups
GDPpercapita(logged)
Numberofgroups
Economicdiscriminaon
ForceRenewal,Direct
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Facons(logged)
PreviousConcessions
Democracy
Neighboringkingroups
GDPpercapita(logged)
Numberofgroups
Economicdiscriminaon
ForceRenewal,Indirect