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[Table_Title]

Morning Research Focus

Research Department

12 November 2019

[Table_Summary] Table of Contents 目录

News Focus 新闻焦点

Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点

October M2 YoY Growth was in Line with Expectations; Liquidity Conditions for the rest of 2019 Expected to

be Slightly Loose

10 月 M2 同比增速基本符合预期，2019 年余下时间流动性预计将偏宽松

Longyuan Power (00916 HK): Wind power generation increased 2.43% YoY in Oct. 2019; estimated

utilisation was down by 0.88% YoY.

龙源电力（00916 HK）：10 月风电发电量同比增长 2.43%，估算利用小时同比跌 0.88%。

Dongfeng Motor (00489 HK): Vehicles Sales Decreased 1.9% YoY in Oct. 2019

东风汽车 (00489 HK)：2019 年 10 月汽车销售同比下跌 1.9%

Latest Reports 最新报告摘要

Company

Name

公司名称

Code

代码

Title

标题

TP

目标价

Chg

z

Rating

评级

Chg

变动

EPS

Est.Change?

盈利预测是否改变

Food &

Beverage Sector

Flash Note: October CPI Beat; Pork Price Growth Increased Significantly

-- Outperform -- N

食品饮料行业 快讯: 10 月 CPI 超预期，猪肉价格增速显著扩大

-- 跑赢大市 -- 否

China Resources Cement

01313 HK Key Takeaways from the Reverse

Roadshow in Guangxi HK$9.30 ↑ Accumulate -- Y

华润水泥 01313 HK 广西反向路演纪要 HK$9.30 ↑ 收集 -- 是

AAC Tech 02018 HK Business to Gradually Recover, "Accumulate"

HK$52.80 ↑ Accumulate ↑ Y

瑞声科技 02018 HK 业务将逐渐复苏，“收集” HK$52.80 ↑ 收集 ↑ 是

Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe

中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据

Appendices：Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports.

后附：行业和公司焦点，最新报告摘要中文版。

Morning Research Focus

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HSI Performance HSCEI Performance

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

[Table_NewsFocus] News Focus 新闻焦点

On November 11, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of China (SASAC)

issued a notice on further improving the equity incentive work of listed companies controlled by central

enterprises. For those listed companies that have not yet made profits, the grant price of restricted stock shall

be determined at no less than 60% of the fair market price.

11 月 11 日，国资委发布《关于进一步做好中央企业控股上市公司股权激励工作有关事项的通知》，尚未盈利的

科创板上市公司实施股权激励的，限制性股票授予价格按照不低于公平市场价格的 60%确定。

Nigel Farage, leader of the Brexit party, boosted Prime Minister Boris Johnson's chances of winning a majority

by dramatically announcing his Brexit Party won't fight to oust Conservatives at next month's UK general

election. The pound rose. The Brexit Party leader told a rally in Hartlepool, northeast England, on Monday that it

was a difficult decision to stand down candidates in the 317 seats the Tories won in the last national vote in

2017, but said he's reassured by Johnson's plans for a sharper split with the European Union.

英国脱欧党领袖奈杰尔•法拉奇宣布他领导的英国脱欧党不会在选举中与保守党对战，大大提升了首相鲍里斯•约

翰逊夺取多数席位的可能性。英镑闻讯上涨。法拉奇周一在英格兰东北部哈特尔普尔举行的集会活动上称，放弃

参选 2017 年上次选举中保守党赢得的 317 个席位是个艰难的决定，但约翰逊退出欧盟的方案让他感到放心。

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

Nov/18 Feb/19 May/19 Aug/19 Nov/19

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Nov/18 Feb/19 May/19 Aug/19 Nov/19

Please subscribe GTJAI Research Wechat public account. Wechat ID: 国泰君安国际研究部 or scan the QR code.

Research Report Database: (1) www.gtjai.com – “Research” – “Focus: Company”/”Research Highlights”

(2) Bloomberg Report Page: RESP GJIR or NH GTJ

欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部微信公众号。 公众号账号：国泰君安国际研究部 也可扫右侧二维码关注。

研究报告库：(1) www.gtjai.com – “研究报告” – “公司点评”/“专题研究”

(2) Bloomberg 报告页面： RESP GJIR 或 NH GTJ

Morning Research Focus

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[Table_Focus] Industry and Company Focus

October M2 YoY Growth was in Line with Expectations; Liquidity Conditions for the rest of 2019 Expected to be Slightly Loose

Analyst: Richard Cao

What happened: The PBOC published the monetary readings for October 2019:

China’s main M1 and M2 indicators

M1 YoY

growth

(%)

M2 YoY

growth

(%)

YoY difference

of M1 YoY

growth

(pts)

MoM

difference of

M1 YoY

growth

(pts)

YoY difference

of M2 YoY

growth

(pts)

MoM

difference of

M2 YoY

growth

(pts)

Differenc

e between

M2 (YoY )

and M1

(YoY )

(pts)

2019-10 3.3 8.4 0.6 (0.1) 0.4 0.0 5.1

Source: The People’s Bank of China, Guotai Junan International.

China's main financing readings

New RMB

loans

(RMB ‘000

mn)

New RMB

deposits

(RMB ‘000

mn)

YoY growth

of new RMB

loans

(%)

MoM growth

of new RMB

loans

(%)

YoY growth

of new RMB

deposits

(%)

MoM growth

of new RMB

deposits

(%)

YoY growth

of new TSF

(%)

MoM

growth of

new TSF

(%)

2019-10 6,613 2,372 (5.1) (60.9) (32.9) (67.0) (16.1) (72.8)

Source: The People’s Bank of China, Guotai Junan International.

Comments and Views: 1) The 8.4% YoY growth rate of M2 in October 2019 was in line with expectations, remaining

unchanged MoM. The M1 YoY growth rate decreased by 0.01pts MoM to 3.3%. Overall, M2 YoY growth remained

unchanged with that in September, which showed the People's Bank of China's prudent monetary policy. 2) The 16.1%

YoY decrease in new TSF in October 2019 was mainly due to the YoY decrease of new RMB loans to real economy, new

undiscounted bills, new special bonds for local governments, and new written-off loans. New RMB loans missed

expectations in October. New RMB loans decreased by 5.1% YoY, down 60.9% MoM. 3) We expect that the PBOC will

maintain slightly loose monetary policies and that China's liquidity conditions will remain slightly loose during the rest of

2019.

Investment suggestion: We expect that projected stable earnings growth and asset quality of mainland Chinese banks

in 2019 will boost their valuations. We maintain "Outperform" rating for the banking sector. Our top pick is CMB (03968

HK); our rating is "Buy" and TP for the Company is HKD47.52.

Morning Research Focus

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Longyuan Power (00916 HK): Wind power generation increased 2.43% YoY in Oct. 2019; estimated utilisation was down by 0.88% YoY.

Analyst: Jake Wang

What happened: Longyuan Power (“the Company”) posted its power generation figure for Oct. 2019:

Oct. 2019 Monthly gen. (GWh) YoY YTD gen. (GWh) YoY

Wind 3,389 2.43% 32,552 1.03%

Thermal 630 -13.99% 7,681 -2.81%

Other Renewable 34 -20.08% 418 -0.76%

Total 4,053 -0.75% 40,651 0.27%

Source: the Company.

Comments and Views: The Company's wind power generation in Oct. 2019 increased 2.43% YoY to

3,389GWh; estimated monthly wind power utilisation slipped 0.88% YoY to 178 hours (180 hours for the

same period of 2018), and was basically flat compared with the last 5-year average (2014-2018). In October,

wind resources for the northeast areas recovered while the average wind speed for coastal areas was still

decreasing YoY. The Company’s capacity-weighted average provincial wind speed dropped 0.96% YoY to

around 4.81m/s. Wind curtailment rate for October was 5.17%, up by 1.03ppt YoY. Estimated cumulative

wind curtailment rate for the first 10 months of 2019 was about 5.14%; the corresponding cumulative wind

utilisation hours was 1,745 hours, slightly down by 0.34% YoY.

Investment suggestion: The Company’s wind power generation and wind utilisation performance for

October was basically in line with our expectation. Due to the change in regional power structure, the

Company's monthly curtailment rate recorded slight YoY rebound, but the accumulated curtailment remained

at a relatively stable level; full-year wind curtailment rate is expected to be around 5.2%. We now estimate

the Company’s 2019 wind power generation to be approximately 40.3MMWh, with wind utilisation of around

2,190 hours. Given the Company's weak power generation performance for 3Q19, we expect its 2019

full-year earnings to record single-digit YoY decrease. The Company's future profitability may gradually

recover as wind conditions turn for the better, but it may take time. Our current investment rating for LYP is

“Accumulate”, TP is HK$5.25.

Dongfeng Motor (00489 HK): Vehicles Sales Decreased 1.9% YoY in Oct. 2019

Analyst: Toliver Ma

What happened: Dongfeng Motor (“DFM”) announced its Oct. 2019 sales data. Overall vehicle sales

recorded a yoy decrease of 1.9%. PV sales decreased 3.4% yoy to 225,387 units, whereas CV sales was

37,153 units, increased 12.7% yoy. In 1-10M19, overall vehicle sales decreased 4.2% yoy to 2,358,532 units.

Comments and Views: Dongfeng Honda continued sales momentum with sales up by 3.3% yoy, but growth

slowed as low base effect faded out. Meanwhile, Nissan’s sales remained stable with yoy increase of 2.2%

after decline in last month. In the meantime, self-owned brands sales improved, with DF Liuqi (PV) and

Fengshen up 8.8% and 39.7% yoy on model revamp. In contrast, French brands (DF Renault and DF PSA)

continued to record significant decline. On the other hand, CV segment shows promising growth as driven by

the recovery of HDT which up by 25.0%.

Investment suggestion: Low base effect from Honda will fade out in 3Q19. Overall growth will continue to

be weak as a result. Despite low valuation, currently trading at 4.4x 12M forward PER, we do not expect a

re-rating in the future due to limit growth expectation. We maintain investment rating as "Reduce", with TP of

HK$6.43, representing 4.0x 2019 PER and 3.9x 2020 PER.

Morning Research Focus

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[Table_Latest] Latest Reports

Flash Note: Food & Beverage Sector: October CPI Beat; Pork Price Growth Increased Significantly

Rating: Outperform 6-18m TP: n.a.

Analyst: Barney Wu Report Date: 2019-11-11

Summary

Pork price and other protein-rich food prices have had a deeper impact on CPI. In October 2019, China's consumer

price index (CPI) rose 3.8% YoY, notably beating consensus (3.4%). In October 2019, China's food CPI jumped 15.5%

YoY, hitting a new high and driving CPI up 3.05 ppt. Among CPI of food categories, pork price rose 101.3% YoY, the

fastest growth rate since statistics began, driving CPI up 2.43 ppt. Driven by rising pork price, all protein-rich food prices

went up. The price of beef, mutton, chicken, duck and eggs rose by 12.3%-21.4%, driving up CPI by 0.41 ppt altogether.

Fruit prices turned down, showing much less impact on CPI. Vegetable prices decreased 10.2% YoY in October, which

lowered CPI by 0.27 ppt. In October 2019, non-food prices remained stable, which increased 0.9% YoY, propping CPI up

0.70 ppt. In 1-10M2019, YTD CPI rose 2.6% YoY, up 0.5 ppt from 2.1% YoY in 2018. In 1-10M2019, YTD food CPI rose

7.4% YoY, up 5.6 ppt from 1.8% in 2018.

Pork prices may hit new highs during the Spring Festival; the turning point is expected to arrive in 2H2020.

China's pork prices fell slightly in November due to weak demand. However, as it is difficult to improve fundamentally

supply in the short term, we expect pork prices to hit new highs during the Spring Festival, and the impact on CPI will

even exceed October. Since September, with the implementation of various favorable policies for supporting hog

production, and the great increase in expected profit of hog breeding (more than RMB2,800/head), the enthusiasm of

farmers to restock sows and increase production has significantly escalated. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and

Rural Areas, capacity of scaled farmers recovered in 2H2019. Up to now, more than 20 provinces have issued policies to

support hog production. The increase in the volume of imported pork alleviated domestic supply shortages to a certain

extent. In 1-3Q2019, China imported 1.362 million tons of pork, up 43.6% YoY, and imported beef was 1.132 million tons,

up 53.4% YoY. However, due to animal reproductive cycle restrictions, China will experience a supply shortage of more

than half a year, and the turning point of pork price is expected to arrive in 2H2020. The good news is that according to

the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, the average wholesale price of seven kinds of fruits in China in

November 2019 fell by 11.2% YoY.

Sector view: We expect that non-food prices will remain stable and rising protein-rich food prices will be the major driving

force of CPI. The profitability of catering enterprises and meat product manufacturers may be hurt due to rising meat

prices. Relatively speaking, large-scale upstream farming enterprises may benefit most from moderate inflation, but the

true situation about hog producers has been affected by ASF as the major concern. Leading consumer staples

companies with strong bargaining power which can smoothly transfer raw material pressure to consumers can gain an

edge over their competitors. In addition, food price hikes can improve average value per order in supermarkets. In the

case of relatively stable demand for consumer goods, same-store growth of retail companies will fully benefit from

inflation. By restructuring the existing hypermarket, Sun Art Retail increased SKU of fresh products and homemade

products and strengthened offerings suitable for middle-tier to upper-tier customers and online customers. We have

"Accumulate" rating for Sun Art Retail (06808 HK) with a TP of HK$9.20 in the Consumer Sector - Retailing.

Morning Research Focus

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China Resources Cement(01313 HK):Key Takeaways from the Reverse Roadshow in Guangxi

Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$9.30

Analyst: David Feng Report Date: 2019-11-11

Summary

A three-day reverse roadshow in Guangxi. The reverse roadshow mainly included a meeting with the management

and site visits to CRC's prefabricated construction worksite in Nanning, cement plant in Tianyang and concrete batching

station in Baise. The management discussed the market status quo in Guangxi and Guangdong, as well as their outlook

for 4Q19 and 2020.

CRC maintains its confidence in adequate demand growth to absorb new capacity in Guangxi. Daily cement

shipment in October was up to 28-30 tons, making inventory levels in Guangxi drop substantially to 30%-40%.

CRC planned to increase its aggregate capacity to 50 million tons in three years. Despite higher material costs,

application of prefabricated concrete components can largely save manpower needed at construction worksites.

We have raised EPS forecasts for 2019/ 2020/ 2021 by 3.0%/ 3.5%/ 3.5%, respectively. We have mainly revised up

our ASP assumptions of cement products based on recent RMB appreciation and faster-than-expected price hikes in

south China.

Revise up TP to HK$9.30 and maintain "Accumulate". Fair value derived from our DCF model is HK$12.39 per

share. We believe that although recent cement price hikes have been mostly priced in, there will still be more upside so

long as cement price hikes continue as expected. Our latest TP represents 8.0x/ 7.4x/ 6.9x 2019-2021 PE ratio and 1.5x

2019 PB ratio.

AAC Tech(02018 HK):Business to Gradually Recover, "Accumulate"

Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$52.80

Analyst: Gin Yu Report Date: 2019-11-11

Summary

AAC Tech's 1-3QFY19 results were higher than our expectations, with shareholders' net profit decreasing by 46.8%

yoy, mainly due to decline in revenue and gross profit margin. However, in 3QFY19, revenue grew by 2.9% yoy and

31.3% QoQ, and gross profit margin was up by 4.6 ppt QoQ to 29.6% in 3Q19.

We revise up FY19-FY21 revenue forecasts by 3.5%/ 10.7%/ 10.1%, respectively. Due to the recovery of the

smartphone market, strong shipments performance of the iPhone 11, and the increasing penetration rate of the

electromagnetic drives and precision mechanics business in Android smartphones, we expect the Company's acoustics

business and electromagnetic drives and precision mechanics business to recover in 4Q19. We expect the expansion of

production capacity to promote growth of lens shipments.

We revise up FY19-FY21 gross margin forecasts by 0.3 ppt/ 1.8 ppt/ 2.5 ppt to 29.4%/ 32.9%/ 33.9%, respectively.

We expect the rising proportion of super linear structure (SLS) products, launch of "classic" versions of SLS products, and

rising market demand of electromagnetic drives business to improve the Company's gross margin.

We revise up the TP from HK$35.80 to HK$52.80 and revise up investment rating from "Neutral" to "Accumulate".

We revise up FY19-FY21 EPS by 3.0%/ 25.0%/ 29.0%, respectively. The TP represents 24.8x, 18.5x and 16.0x FY19 -

FY21 PER.

Morning Research Focus

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[Table_NewlyPublished] Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe

中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据

Analyst: Jack Wu 分析员：吴狄

Country

国家

Indicator

指标名称

Data Period

数据期间

Current Value

当期值

MoM / QoQ

环比变动

YoY

同比变动

Market Consensus

市场一致预期

China

中国

Aggregate Financing (bn RMB)

社会融资总额（十亿元人民币）

Oct

10月 618.9 (72.8%) (16.7%) 950.0

China

中国

Money Supply M1 YoY

货币供应 M1 同比增速

Oct

10月 3.3% (0.1ppts) 0.6ppts 3.8%

China

中国

Money Supply M2 YoY

货币供应 M2 同比增速

Oct

10月 8.4% 0.0ppts 0.4ppts 8.4%

China

中国

New RMB Loans (bn RMB)

新增人民币贷款（十亿元人民币）

Oct

10月 661.3 (60.3%) (6.0%) 800.0

Source: People’s Bank of China.

数据来源：中国人民银行。

Chinese Translation 中文翻译

[Table_Focus_chi] 行业和公司焦点

10 月 M2 同比增速基本符合预期，2019 年余下时间流动性预计将偏宽松

分析员：曹 柱

事件描述：中国人民银行发布了 2019 年 10 月份货币数据：

中国主要 M1 与 M2 指标

M1 同比增速

（%）

M2 同比增速

（%）

M1 同比增速同

比增幅

（百分点）

M1 同比增速环

比增幅

（百分点）

M2 增速同比增

幅

（百分点）

M2 比增速环

比增幅

（百分点）

M2 与 M1

剪刀差

（百分点）

2019-10 3.3 8.4 0.6 (0.1) 0.4 0.0 5.1

资料来源: 中国人民银行，国泰君安国际。

中国主要融资指标

新增人民币贷

款

(亿人民币)

新增人民币存

款

(亿人民币)

新增人民币贷

款同比增速

(%)

新增人民币贷

款环比增速

(%)

新增人民币存

款同比增速

(%)

新增人民币存

款环比增速

(%)

新增社会融资

同比增速

(%)

新增社会

融资环比

增速

(%)

(%)

2019-10 6,613 2,372 (5.1) (60.9) (32.9) (67.0) (16.1) (72.8)

资料来源: 中国人民银行，国泰君安国际。

观点评论: 1) 2019 年 10 月 8.4% M2 同比增速符合预期，环比维持不变。M1 的 3.3%同比增速环比下降 0.01

个百分点。整体上，M2 同比增速与 9 月份相比维持不变，显示了中国人民银行货币政策稳健。2) 2019 年 10

月 16.1%的新增社会融资同比下降主要是由于新增对实体经济人民币贷款、新增未贴现银行承兑汇票、地方政

府专项债券和贷款核销的同比下降。10 月新增人民币贷款差于预期。新增人民币贷款同比下降 5.1%、环比下

降 60.9%。3)我们预计 2019 年余下时间中国人民银行将会维持偏宽松的货币政策，并且中国的流动性将维持

偏宽松。

Morning Research Focus

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投资建议：我们预计中资银行预期 2019 年稳健的盈利增速以及资产质量将推升其估值。我们维持银行业“跑

赢大市”投资评级。我们的首选股为招商银行(03968 HK)，我们对公司的投资评级以及目标价分别为“买入”

与 47.52 港元。

龙源电力（00916 HK）：10 月风电发电量同比增长 2.43%，估算利用小时同比跌 0.88%。

分析员：汪昌江

事件描述：龙源电力（“公司”）公布 2019 年 10 月发电量：

2019 年 10 月 单月发电量(GWh) 同比变动% 累计发电量(GWh) 同比变动%

风电 3,389 2.43% 32,552 1.03%

火电 630 -13.99% 7,681 -2.81%

其他可再生 34 -20.08% 418 -0.76%

合计 4,053 -0.75% 40,651 0.27%

资料来源：公司。

观点评论：公司 2019 年 10 月风电发电量同比增长 2.43%至 3,389 吉瓦时，估算风电当月利用小时同比微跌

0.88%至 178 小时（去年同期约 180 小时），与过去五年（2014-2018 年）同期平均值基本持平。10 月份东北

地区的风资源情况有所好转但东部沿海地区的平均风速仍录得同比下滑。公司各省装机容量加权的平均风速约

为 4.81 米/秒，同比小幅下滑 0.96%。公司 10 月份的限电率为 5.17%，较去年同期上升 1.03 个百分点。2019

年首 10 个月测算的累计限电率约为 5.14%，对应的累计风电利用小时数估计为 1,745 小时，同比微跌 0.34%。

投资建议：公司 10 月份的发电量和利用小时数的同比表现基本符合我们预期。由于局部地区发电结构的变化，

公司的月度限电率出现了同比反弹但累计限电率仍维持在相对稳定的水平，2019全年的弃风率预计约为 5.2%。

我们现预测公司 2019 全年的风电发电量将达到 403 亿千瓦时，风电利用小时约为 2,190 小时左右。由于 3 季

度发电量表现疲软，公司 2019 全年盈利预计将录得单位数的同比下滑。未来的盈利能力可能根据风资源的好

转而逐步恢复，但需要时间。我们目前对龙源电力的投资评级为“收集”，目标价为 5.25 港元。

东风汽车 (00489 HK)：2019 年 10 月汽车销售同比下跌 1.9%

分析员：马守彰

事件描述: 东风汽车公布其 2019 年 10 月的销售数据，整体汽车销售同比下跌 1.9%。其中，乘用车销量同比

下跌 3.4%至 225,387 辆，商用车销量为 37,153 辆，同比上升 12.7%。2019 年 1-10 月整体汽车销售同比下跌

4.2%至 2,358,532 辆。

观点评论：东风本田维持销售动能，销售同比增长 3.3%。然而，随着低基数效应逐渐消退，增长是有所放缓。

与此同时，日产的销量相对稳定，销售在上月微跌后，10 月录得同比增长 2.2%。同时，自主品牌的销售有所

改善，东风柳汽（乘用车）和风神在车型升级后分别同比增长 8.8%和 39.7%。相比之下，法国品牌（东风雷

诺和东风神龙）继续录得大幅度下降。另一方面，受重卡销售复苏的带动（同比增长 25.0%），商用车分部快

速增长。

投资建议：本田的低基数效应将在 2019 年第 3 季度逐渐消退。整体销售将维持较弱水平。尽管当前估值较低，

目前 12 个月的预测市盈率为 4.4 倍，但由于有限的增长预期，我们预计未来不会重估。我们维持对公司的投

资评级为“减持”。目标价为 6.43 港元，相当于 4.0 倍的 2019 年市盈率和 3.9 倍的 2020 年市盈率。

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[Table_Latest_chi] 最新报告

快讯: 食品饮料行业: 10 月 CPI 超预期，猪肉价格增速显著扩大

评级： 跑赢大市 6-18m 目标价: n.a.

分析员： 吴宇扬 报告日期: 2019-11-11

报告摘要

猪肉及其他蛋白价格对 CPI 的影响更深。2019 年 10 月，中国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上升 3.8%，显著超过一致预

期（3.4%）。2019 年 10 月，中国食品 CPI 同比上升 15.5%，再创新高，带动 CPI 上升近 3.05 个百分点。食品 CPI 构成

中，猪肉在 10 月份上升 101.3%，为有数据以来最快涨幅，推动 CPI 上升 2.43 个百分点。在猪肉价格上涨的带动下，所

有蛋白价格明显走高。牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉、鸭肉和鸡蛋价格涨幅在 12.3%-21.4%之间，五项合计影响 CPI 上涨约 0.41 个

百分点。鲜果价格同比转跌，对 CPI 的影响显著降低。10 月份蔬菜价格同比下降 10.2%，拉低 CPI 约 0.27 个百分点。2019

年 10 月，非食品价格变动维持平稳，同比上涨 0.9%，带动 CPI 上涨 0.70 个百分点。2019 年前 10 个月 CPI 累计同比上

涨 2.6%，较 2018 年 2.1%的涨幅上升 0.5 个百分点。2019 年前 10 个月，食品价格累计同比上涨 7.4%，较 2018 年 1.8%

的涨幅提高 5.6 个百分点。

春节期间猪肉价格可能再创新高，拐点预计将在 2020 年下半年到来。因为需求偏弱，11 月中国猪肉价格有小幅回落。但

由于供给在短期内难以根本改善，我们预计春节期间猪肉价格将再创新高，对 CPI 的影响将超过 10 月份。9 月份以来，随

着有关部门扶持生猪生产各项利好政策落地，以及养猪利润大幅提升（头均利润超过人民币 2,800 元），养殖户补栏增产

的积极性明显增加。农业农村部数据显示，下半年规模猪场已经有产能恢复迹象。截至目前，已经有 20 多个省份出台了支

持生猪生产政策。进口猪肉增加一定程度上缓解国内供给不足。今年前 3 季度，我国进口猪肉 132.6 万吨，同比增加 43.6%;

进口牛肉 113.2 万吨，同比增加 53.4%。不过由于生殖周期限制，中国还将经历超过半年的供给短缺，猪肉价格拐点预计

将会在 2020 年下半年到来。好消息是根据农业农村部数据，2019 年 11 月中国 7 种水果平均批发价格同比回落 11.2%。

行业观点：我们预计非食品价格保持稳定，但持续攀升的蛋白价格将成为 CPI 上升的主要动力。我们认为餐饮企业和肉制

品企业盈利能力可能会受到肉类价格上升的影响。相对而言，上游规模化养殖企业最为受益温和通胀，但要关注生猪养殖

企业受到非洲猪瘟的影响的真实情况。下游具备议价能力的龙头消费品公司可以较为顺利地将原材料成本压力转嫁给消费

者，为其赢得竞争优势。另外食品价格的上涨对于超市的客单价有直接影响，在必需消费品需求相对稳定的情况下，零售

企业同店增长将充分受益于通胀上行。高鑫零售通过改造现有的大卖场，增加生鲜产品和自制产品的单品数量，并加强适

合中高端客户的各类产品和线上销售的商品。我们给予消费-零售行业的高鑫零售(06808 HK)“收集”评级和 9.20港元目标价。

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华润水泥(01313 HK):广西反向路演纪要

评级： 收 集 6-18m 目标价: HK$9.30

分析员： 冯廷帅 报告日期: 2019-11-11

报告摘要

在广西为期三天的反向路演。本次反向路演主要包括了与管理层的会议以及对华润水泥位于南宁的装配式建筑工地、田阳

水泥厂以及百色混凝土搅拌站的实地考察。管理层讨论了目前两广地区的市场现状，以及他们对于 2019 年第四季度和

2020 年的展望。

华润水泥对于广西的需求增长足以吸收新增产能仍充满信心。10 月的日均出货量高达 28-30 吨，令广西的库存水平显著

降低至 30%-40%。

华润水泥计划在三年内将其骨料产能提升至 5 千万吨。尽管材料成本较高，混凝土预制件的应用可大大节约建筑工地所需

的人力。

我们将 2019/ 2020/ 2021 年的每股盈利预测分别上调 3.0%/ 3.5%/ 3.5%。我们主要基于近期人民币的升值以及华南快于

预期的提价上调了平均售价假设。

上调目标价至 9.30 港元，维持“收集”评级。我们的 DCF 模型给出的公允价值为每股 12.39 港元。我们认为尽管近期水

泥价格的上调已经大部分反映在股价中，但只要水泥价格继续如预期上调，股价仍有更大的上行空间。我们最新的目标价

对应 8.0 倍/ 7.4 倍/ 6.9 倍的 2019-2021 年市盈率和 1.5 倍的 2019 年市净率。

瑞声科技(02018 HK):业务将逐渐复苏，“收集”

评级： 收 集 6-18m 目标价: HK$52.80

分析员：余劲同 报告日期: 2019-11-11

报告摘要

瑞声科技 2019 财年首三季度业绩好于我们的预期，股东净利同比下降 46.8%，主要是由于收入的下降和毛利率的下跌。

然而，在 2019 财年第三季度，收入同比增长 2.9%和环比增长 31.3%，而毛利率在 2019 财年第三季度环比增长 4.6 个百

分点至 29.6%。

我们分别上调 2019-2021 财年收入预测 3.5%/ 10.7%/ 10.1%。由于智能手机市场的复苏、iPhone 11 的强劲出货表现以及

安卓智能手机中电磁传动及精密结构件业务的渗透率不断上升，我们预计公司的声学业务以及电磁传动及精密结构件业务

将在 2019 年第四季度恢复。我们预计产能的扩张将促进镜头的出货量增长。

我们分别上调 2019-2021 财年毛利率预测 0.3/ 1.8/ 2.5 个百分点至 29.4%/ 32.9%/ 33.9%。我们预计超线性结构（"SLS"）

产品比重的不断上升、“经典版” SLS 产品的推出、以及电磁传动业务市场需求的上升将提高公司的毛利率。

我们将目标从 35.80 港元上调至 52.80 港元，并将公司的投资评级由“中性”上调至“收集”。我们分别上调 2019-2021 财

年的每股盈利 3.0%/ 25.0%/ 29.0%。目标价相当于 24.8 倍、18.5 倍和 16.0 倍 2019 - 2021 财年市盈率。

Morning Research Focus

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Research Department 研究部

Grace Liu 刘 谷 Head of Research, Market

Strategy, Petrochemicals

主管，市场策略、石化 grace.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7516

Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费（酒店）、博彩 noah.hudson@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5441

Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection,

Infrastructure

环保、基建 gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2616

Kevin Guo 郭 勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料、燃气 kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6671

Richard Cao 曹 柱 Banking 银行 caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6870

Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Solar, Electric Equipment,

Conglomerate

太阳能、电力设备、综合业务 junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7592

Andrew Song 宋 涛 Consumer (Retailing),

Home Appliances

消费（零售）、家电 andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5313

Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费（服装） hongxueyu@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6722

Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Property 房地产 johnny.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5348

Toliver Ma 马守彰 Aviation,

Automobiles & Components

航空、汽车 toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5317

Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Consumer (Food & Beverage,

Household Products)

消费（食品饮料、日用品） wuyuyang@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6680

Jake Wang 汪昌江 Market Strategy, Wind Energy&

others

市场策略、风电及其它 wangchangjiang@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6675

Wiley Huang 黄重钧 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险、债券 wiley.huang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5409

Kay Mai 麦梓琪 Health care 医药 maiziqi@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6685

Danny Law 罗沛达 E-commerce 电子商务 danny.law@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7768

Jason Zhou 周桓葳 Internet 互联网 jason.zhou@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5347

David Feng 冯廷帅 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械、建材 david.feng@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2113

Gin Yu 余劲同 Telecommunication Service &

Equipment

电信服务及设备 gin.yu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2130

Jack Liu 柳 晨 Property 房地产 chen.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2149

Andy Huang 黄凯鸿 Market Strategy 市场策略 kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 2397 6702

Jack Wu 吴 狄 Market Strategy 市场策略 di.wu@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 2397 6718

Peter Shao 邵俊樨 Petrochemicals 石化 peter.shao@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5464

Kevin Zhuo 卓仕凯 Research Assistant 研究助理 shikai.zhuo@gtjas.com.hk (86755)2397 6725

Teddy Lin 林荣叶 Research Assistant 研究助理 rongye.lin@gtjas.com.hk (86755)2397 6692

Jerrimy Wang 王瀚 Research Assistant 研究助理 han.wang@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 2397 6756

Alfred Chen 陈傲 Research Assistant 研究助理 ao.chen@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 2397 6672

Gordon Gong 龚悦来 Research Assistant 研究助理 gordon.gong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2603

Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理、翻译员 zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 2397 6681

Penny Pan 潘凌蕾 Secretary, Translator 秘书、翻译员 penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2632

Morning Research Focus

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Company Rating Definition

The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index

Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months

Rating Definition

Buy 买入 Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.

Accumulate 收集 Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.

Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.

Reduce 减持 Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sell 卖出 Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sector Rating Definition

The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index

Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months

Rating Definition

Outperform 跑赢大市 Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.

Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.

Underperform 跑输大市 Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.

[Table_DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS] DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS

(1) Except for SHENZHEN INTERNATIONAL (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.

(2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for CH TIANBAO GP (01427 HK),KAISA GROUP (01638 HK),GUOTAI JUNAN I (01788 HK),JXR (01951 HK),BANK OF GANSU

(02139 HK),JINSHANG BANK (02558 HK),ZHONGLIANG HLDG (02772 HK),BINHAI INVESTMENT (02886 HK),CAM SCSMALLCAP (03157 HK),HAITIAN ANTENNA (08227 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.

(4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with SMI HOLDINGS GROUP (00198 HK),CHINA TRAVEL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT HONG KONG LIMITED (00308 HK),CHINA GAS (00384 HK),GOME ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES (00493 HK),TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED (00780 HK),DONGJIANG ENVIRONMENTAL- H SHARES (00895 HK),MODERN LAND (01107 HK),POWERLONG REAL ESTATE (01238 HK),CHINA EVERBRIGHT GREENTECH LIMITED (01257 HK),CHINA SOUTH CITY (01668 HK),COLOUR LIFE SERVICES (01778 HK),XIAOMI CORPORATION (01810 HK),CHINA RISUN GROUP (01907 HK),BAIC MOTOR- H SHARES (01958 HK),COUNTRY GARDEN (02007 HK),RONSHINE CHINA (03301 HK),CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION INTERNATIONAL (03311 HK),XIEZHONG INTERNATIONAL (03663 HK),MEITUAN DIANPING (03690 HK),HUISHANG BANK- H SHARES (03698 HK),CHINA AOYUAN PROPERTY (03883 HK),GREENTOWN CHINA (03900 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.

(5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research

Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.

DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. © 2019 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtjai.com