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Economic Update
November 6, 2020
William T. Chittenden, Ph.D.Associate Dean for Graduate Programs & Presidential Fellow
McCoy College of Business AdministrationTexas State University
“Many economists and Federal Reserve officials argue restoring growth should be the first priority, and that worries about closing the deficit can come later.”
Recent Recessions
oJanuary 1980 – July 1980oJuly 1981 – November 1982oJuly 1990 – March 1991oMarch 2001 – November 2001oDecember 2007 – June 2009oMarch 2020 – ?
National and State Income
GDP
Personal Consumption: 68.0%Business Investment: 17.3% Government Spending: 18.1%Net Exports: –3.5%
May not add to 100% due to rounding
‐31.4%
33.1%
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Growth in Real GDP (QOQ)
National Income
1st Quarter 20: GDP ↓ -5.0%2nd Quarter 20: GDP ↓ -31.4%3rd Quarter 20: GDP ↑ 33.1%
Consumer Spending ↑ 40.7%Business Investment ↑ 83.0%State & Local Government Spending ↓ -3.3%Federal Government Spending ↓ 6.2%
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Real GDP
(Billions)
Real GDP Growth 30‐Year Trend
$(18.5)
$118.5 Dec. 2010
$(111.4)
$(63)
$17
$(7)
‐$150
‐$100
‐$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Change in Consumer Credit Outstanding ‐(MoM in Billions)
2.6%
‐47.6%
‐12.6%
‐60%
‐50%
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
% Change in Real Personal Consumption Expenditures of Dining Out (YOY)
Employment
6.3%
10.0% 7.9%
17.2%
22.8%
12.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Unemployment & Underemployment Rate
U.S. Unemployment Rate
U.S. Underemployment Rate
10.0%
14.7%
7.9%
13.5%
6.8%
8.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Unemployment Rate
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Texas Unemployment Rate
Claims in Texas fell by more than 11,000 or about 25 percent from the previous week to fewer than 34,000, the lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic began. Nationally, claims fell by 40,000 to 751,000, also the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic.
(783)
534
128
‐1,000
‐500
0
500
1,000
1,500
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Monthly Change in US Jobs (Thousands)
(784)
540
185
(20,787)
4,781
661
‐25,000
‐20,000
‐15,000
‐10,000
‐5,000
0
5,000
10,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Monthly Change in US Jobs (Thousands)
63.4%
60.2%
61.7%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate
8.6
25.2
7.0
17.8
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Median Duration of Unemployment (Months)
85%
87%
89%
91%
93%
95%
97%
99%
101%
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77Months After Beginning of Recession
Non‐Farm Payrolls Following Beginning of Recession
1980 1981 1990 2001 2007 2020
11 28 32 48 77
Price Levels
14.8%
5.6%
‐2.1% ‐0.1%
1.4%
‐3.0%
‐1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Annual Inflation Rate
Source: https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/key-indicators/
$4.09
$1.69
$3.93
$1.77
$2.90
$1.88
$2.19
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Average Price Gallon Unleaded Regular Gasoline
$163.80
$275.80
$200.90
$321.40
$343.30
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Thou
sand
s of Dollars
Median Price of Houses Sold including Land Price
Source: zillow.com
5.1
9.1
4.8
2.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Months Supply of Houses For Sale at Current Sales Rate
Source: zillow.com
Source: zillow.com
Source: zillow.com
Interest Rates
0.11%
0.68%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Treasury Rates3 Month Treasury Constant Mat 10‐Year Treasury Constant Mat
‐0.15%
‐0.64% ‐0.52%
‐0.36%
0.57%
‐1.0%
‐0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
10‐Year minus 3‐Month Treasury Spread
102.6
74.7
112.0
96.9
107.2
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2004
= 100
Conference Board LEI
112.0
96.9
55.8
101.0
71.8
81.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Inde
x 1st Q
uarter 196
6=10
0
Consumer Sentiment
144.7
111.9
25.3
132.6
85.7
100.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Inde
x 1st Q
uarter 196
6=10
0
Consumer Confidence
0.82 0.76 0.750.79
2.23
0.67
0.81
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Inde
x 1st Q
uarter 196
6=10
0
Consumer Sentiment/Consumer Confidence
Based on the results of the election, what does history say can we expect?
Questions?
Contact Information:
William T Chittenden, Ph.D.Texas State University
McCoy College of Business Administration601 University Drive
San Marcos, TX [email protected]
512-245-3591
