Tackling Land Degradation:A Prerequisite for Human

SecurityLuc GNACADJA - World Future Council

2014 Inter-Parliamentary Regional Hearing onExemplary Forest Policies in Africa

Nariobi, 1 – 3 October 2014

Outline1. Land degradation/Desertification?

Human Security?

2. The tradeoffs in land use change: Progress or Degradation?

3. How LD threatens human security and global sustainability?

4. Restoring more than we degrade: Land degradation neutrality in the Sust. Dev. Goals (SDGs)

Desertification: a global challenge in a Vicious Cycle

Land Degradation?Long-term loss of land (terrestrial bio productive syst.)

productivity from which the land cannot recover unaided

Desertification = Land Degradation in dry lands

A Vicious Cycle

Causes of Land Degrad./Desertificati

on

• Deforestation

• Overgrazing

• Unsustainable Agriculture

• Soil Erosion (Wind & Water)

Functionchange

or

Functiontradeoff

Use intensification Forest Grassland

1. Undisturbed

2. Extensive

3. Intensive

Tradeoffs in land use change: Progress or degradation?

From trade-offs in Ecosystem functions towards Total degradation

Source: PBL 2009

Functionchange

or

Functiontradeoff

Degraded?

Use intensification Forest Grassland

1. Undisturbed

2. Extensive

3. Intensive

4. ..

Smart Policies needed to transform tradeoffs in synergies

Status & Trends in Global Land DegradationSource: SOLAW 2011 - FAO

In too many places, achievements in production have been associated with management practices that have degraded the land & water

Human Security?Human Security (HS) concept connotes that of

Human Development

Here, “Security” means freedom from fear, freedom from want and freedom to live in dignity.

Human security addresses human vulnerability and lack of resilience vis-à-vis security threats and risks in areas such as economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community, political.

It’s a people-centered concept of security understood as necessary for national, regional and global security and stability.

How Land Degradation threatens Human Security?

Biodiversity Loss

Extreme Poverty

Water stress & Increased

vulnerability

to Drought

Food insecurity &

Hunger

CC: Loss of

resilience & Increased

emissions of GHG

Environ. induced

Migrations

Instability & Crises

Deforestation

Economics:LD cost up

to 5% GDP/Year

Degradation of LivelihoodsDepletion of resource base for HS

LD =

to F

ight

or to

Flee

Land Degrad. Drought

Loss of Bio-

Productivity

VulnerabilityPovert

y Food

Insecurity

Conflicts over

Scarcer Resource

s

Fight or

Flee

Land Degradation & Drought: Fight or Flee?

by 2020 an estimated 60 million people could move from the desertified areas of Sub-Saharan Africa towards North Africa & Europe

by 2050, 200 million people may be permanently displaced environmental migrants in the World

Drylands and Conflicts - Source: “Common Wealth” , J. Sachs)

Drylands: The World’s most conflict-prone region

Drylands: The World’s most conflict-prone region

In ‘Desertification, The Invisible Frontline’; UNCCD 2014

Desertification Vulnerability in Africa, 2008

Conflicts & Food Riots in Africa, 2007-2008

Terrorists Attacks in 2012

Migration main trajectories

Major push factors of environmentally- induced migration:

• Drought• Desertificatio

n • Water

Scarcity

Environment degradation - Migrations & Conflicts

Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU (2007)

Global Desertification Vulnerability

Vulnerability to desertification: A migration push factor?

Desertification and drought global hot spots have become major global sources of environmentally-induced migrations

Drylands are not marginal landsThe real value of Drylands

1/3 of the world land mass and population

44% of the World’s food production system

50% of the World’s livestock

Dry forest made 42% of the earth's tropical and subtropical open or closed forests

Home to the world’s largest diversity of mammals whose survival, literally, hangs on the arid zone forests

Source: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR); July 2012http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/2904/climate-change-drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decades

Climate Change: DROUGHT may threaten much of the globe within decades

• % of Earth’s land area stricken by serious drought has more than doubled from the 1970s to the early 2000s

• Africa is the most drought stricken and vulnerable region of the world

• Since 2009, 7 out of the 10 worst drought disasters in the world have been taken place in sub-Saharan Africa

• Yet no country in the continent has effective drought preparedness and risk management policies & institutions

Land Degradation: Africa is most vulnerable region

Risk of human-induced desertificationFrom “Land resource stresses and desertification in Africa “ Published in: P.F. Reich, S.T. Numbem, R.A. Almaraz and H. Eswaran , 2001

Weather shocks: the occurrence of droughts affecting over 2 M people has increased from 20% (1970s) to 90% (2000s)

Social & resource-based conflict: Horn of Africa: home to over 4 million

internally displaced and 2.5 million refugees due to war and drought

Sahel region: home to over 500,000 internally displaced and 400,000 refugees

Vulnerability is compounded by land degradation: over 3% of Africa’s agricultural GDP is lost annually—equivalent to US$ 9 billion per year-as a direct result of soil and nutrient loss

• Over 45% of Africa was affected by desertification. 80% of the pasture & rangeland seriously eroded/degraded

20

Niger Republic, West Africa, 1980’s

Can this man-made barren land thrive again?

Dynamics of land use and vegetation in Southwest of Zinder, Niger

1975

1955

2005

A C

B

Transformed landscape: Farmer-managed natural

regeneration - FMNR

‘Underground forests’: Tony’s eureka moment in Niger

• FMNR = Farmer-managed natural regeneration, one of the most successful and cost-effective agro-forestry schemes for regenerating desertified land by managing living tree stumps & roots

• “When you understand desertified land you can restore them” (Tony Rinaudo)

Impacts of Farmer-managed natural regeneration (FMNR) in Niger

5,000,000 ha re-greened in 20 years (only labour for protection, investment in extension, no recurrent costs to governments)

200 million new trees additional cereal production/year: 500,000 ton 2.5 million people fed 1.25 million rural households involved

Challenges for scaling up and dissemination Secure Land tenure and Land use rights Public investments on infrastructures Access to market Tailored legislation, policies & institutions

25

Comparative Overview of Terroirs on Opposite Sides of the Niger-Nigeria Border Source: Google Earth, 2005

Niger

Nigeria

Desertification & Drought when compounded with weak governance often fuel tribal / political / religious fights

Desertification Vulnerability in Africa Published in: P.F. Reich, S.T. Numbem, R.A. Almaraz and H. Eswaran , 2001

Degraded Lands are

underperforming Assets

450 Millions ha …More than in any other

continent!

Investments in Drylands can pay off

Many drylands in developing countries have been investment deserts for too long, yet sustained higher levels of investment can enhance productivity and boost incomes. For the greatest gains, investments need to be configured to

the short and long-term variability of these human-ecological systems.

There are opportunities to suit all sectors For the public, private large-scale commercial, community

and household, and private small-scale sectors Investments areas: renewable energy, education, health, water, farmland, pasture and livestock, woodland and trees, land use, conservation and tourism, urban development, markets, innovation and risk management, etc.

The potential benefits of drylands (at local, regional & global levels) have not been fully utilized because of: • Myths & stigma• Market failures, • Lack of public goods, • Weak incentives, • High investment

costs and • Gender inequalities.

(Source: ‘Global Drylands UN System Wide Rapid Response’ UNEP-EMG, 2011

28

2000

Potential

Soil factorNPP

FoodFiberWaterFloods

ClimateBiodiversity

2050

Business as usual

0

Time2010 2020 2030 20401990

Restoring more than we degrade:Achieving a Land-Degradation Neutral World (LDNW) by 2030

Prevention: Type1

Restoration: Type 2&3LDNW

optio

ns

SDG Goal 15 & target 15.3 by 2030“Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss”

Ongoing change

Historical change

Poverty eradication

Improving livelihood through pro-poor

policies on Sustainable Land & Water Management

Drought & Water stressImproving water

availability & quality through sustainable

land & water management

Food SecurityPreserving the

resource base for food security – Land productivity/Soil

fertility improvement at the core of all long

term strategies

BiodiversityBiodiversity

conservation through improvement of land

ecosystems’ conditions

Climate changeLand is a win-win

context for adaptation, mitigation & resilience building

Bio EnergiesOpportunities for Bio

energies through biomass production

Avoided Deforestation

Sust. Land Management & Restoration of

degraded Lands as an alternative to Deforestation

Avoiding environ. Forced

MigrationsChanging the DAM

paradigm“Degrade-Abandon-

Migrate”

LAND-DEGRADATION NEUTRALITY:

A FRAMEWORK FOR INTEGRATED LANDSCAPE

MANAGEMENT

My hope is That this generation will initiate the restoration age

Please Join

Thank You

Historical Fact: Mankind is a Desert-making Species