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Turk Arap Forum- Istanbul, Turkey, June 2011
Citation preview
The New Champions
of the Capital World
Serkan ELDENSerkan ELDEN
Turkish Arab Economic Forum
Istanbul
April 26 & 27, 2011
Neither PineBridge Investments (Turkey) Ltd. nor PineBridge Investments Partners LLC or any other company within the PineBridge Investments group of companies (collectively, the “PineBridge Investments
Group”) is licensed to provide investment advisory, marketing or portfolio management in Turkey. This presentation is for general informational purposes only, and is not intended nor shall it be interpreted as an
offer, solicitation or recommendation for investors in any vehicle or product advised by the PineBridge Investments Group nor for advisory services by the PineBridge Investments Group as may be contemplated
by the Turkish Commercial Code and the Turkish Code of Obligations, the Capital Markets Laws and the “Communiqué Regarding the Principles on Venture Capital Investment Trusts” of the Capital Markets Board
of Turkey, or otherwise with respect to the offer, purchase or sale of any security or financial product. No person should act or refrain from acting in reliance on any information provided in this
presentation. Statements of facts and opinions expressed are those of the speaker individually and are not the opinion or position of the PineBridge Investments Group. No undertaking, representation or
warranty, whether express or implied, is given by the PineBridge Investments Group, their shareholders, advisors or any of their directors, partners, officers, employees or agents as to the accuracy or
completeness of the information presented.
Any opinion expressed in this presentation may be subject to change without notice. We are not soliciting or recommending any action based on this material. Investment information and comments stated
here, are not within the scope of investment advisory activity. Investment advisory services is provided in accordance with a contract of engagement for such services and concluded between brokerage houses,
portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and clients. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations.
These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences. For this reason, to make an investment decision by relying solely on the information stated here may not bring about outcomes that fit yourexpectations.
The New Champions of the Capital World
1
Source: http://www.ancient-wisdom.co.uk/pirireismap.htm
EU
World
2
US China
GatewayTurkey, Middle
East, Africa,
Russia/Central
Asia
Population and GDP
GATEWAYGATEWAYGATEWAYGATEWAY
Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr)
USUSUSUS
Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr)
469
501
1990 2009
$7.0
$16
1990 2009
Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr)
EUEUEUEU
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
0%0%0%0%
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
4%4%4%4%
3
1Asia includes China and India
Source: IMF, World Bank, January 2011. CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate.
Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr)
249 307
1990 2009
$5.8
$14
1990 2009
Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr)
ASASASASIIIIAAAA1CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
1%1%1%1%CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
5%5%5%5% CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
2%2%2%2% CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
6%6%6%6% CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
1%1%1%1%
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
11%11%11%11%
924
1,4
1990 2009
$1.5
$4.9
1990 2009
1,98 2,48
1990 2009
$0.7
$6.2
1990 2009
Foreign Direct Investment - Net Inflows (US $Bn)
GATEWAYGATEWAYGATEWAYGATEWAY
$321
$134
USUSUSUS
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
----9%9%9%9%
$165
$221
2000 2009
EUEUEUEU
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
3%3%3%3%
ASASASASIIIIAAAA1111
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR $112
4
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
25%25%25%25%2000 2009
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
12%12%12%12%
1Asia includes China and India
Source: Eurostat, World Bank. January 2011. CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate.
$14
$102
2000 2009
$41
$112
2000 2009
World Wealth
AMERICASAMERICASAMERICASAMERICAS
EUEUEUEU
ASASASASIIIIAAAA20%20%20%20%
15%15%15%15%
36%36%36%36%
3.03.6
3.0
2.6
3.0
2004 200913.0
17.4
HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr)
HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr)
HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr)
8.9
9.5
2004 2009
34%34%34%34%
7%7%7%7%
37%37%37%37%
5
GATEWAYGATEWAYGATEWAYGATEWAY1111
33%33%33%33%
0.30.4
2004 2009
2004 20092.2
3.0
2004 2009
1Gateway Region includes Middle East
Source: World Wealth Report 2007 and 2010 of Capgemini and Merrill Lynch. HNWI – High Net Worth Individual.
2004 2009
HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr)
7.19.7
2004 2009
1.0
1.5
2004 2009
50%50%50%50%
Sovereign Wealth Funds
RegionRegionRegionRegional al al al ---- 20102010201020101111 Top 10 Largest Top 10 Largest Top 10 Largest Top 10 Largest ---- USUSUSUS $bn, 2010$bn, 2010$bn, 2010$bn, 20102222
738
733
436
395
333
220
203
193
65
62
United Arab Emirates
China
Saudi Arabia
Norway
Singapore
Russia
Kuwait
Hong Kong
Libya
Qatar
Asia, 41%Europe,
19%
Americas4%
Other,2%
6
Top 10 Largest Top 10 Largest Top 10 Largest Top 10 Largest ---- USUSUSUS $bn, 2007$bn, 2007$bn, 2007$bn, 20073333
0 500 1000
United Arab Emirates
875
430
312
300
300
70
40
35
32
0 500 1000
United Arab Emirates
Singapore
Norway
China
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Australia
Alaska
Russia
1Gateway Region includes MENA and Africa; Americas include North and Latin America. Source: PE Report of Preqin, 2011.2Source: Getmoney.com, January 2010.3Source: http://chenesseau.net/4.html.
Gateway, 34%
TURKEY: A Gateway Destination in the Gateway Region
GGGGDPDPDPDP
2000 2010
US$US$US$US$ 266266266266 bnbnbnbn US$ 729 bnUS$ 729 bnUS$ 729 bnUS$ 729 bn
FDI (NET INFLOWS)FDI (NET INFLOWS)FDI (NET INFLOWS)FDI (NET INFLOWS)
2000 2010
FOREIGNFOREIGNFOREIGNFOREIGN TRADE VOLUMETRADE VOLUMETRADE VOLUMETRADE VOLUME
2000 2010
7
M&A TRANSACTIONSM&A TRANSACTIONSM&A TRANSACTIONSM&A TRANSACTIONS
2002 2010
US$US$US$US$ 0.6 bn0.6 bn0.6 bn0.6 bn US$US$US$US$ 26.426.426.426.4 bnbnbnbn
US$ 0.90.90.90.9 bn US$ 7.07.07.07.0 bnUS$US$US$US$ 111111116666 bnbnbnbn
2000 2010
US$US$US$US$ 299299299299 bnbnbnbn
Source: IMF Database, World Bank Database; EMPEA Database, December 2008; Ernst & Young M&A Transactions Report 2010; Turkish Statistical
Institute Database, UNCTAD Global Investment Trends Monitor Report, January 17, 2010.
TURKEY: Developing Relations With the Middle East
FDI (NET INFLOWS) FDI (NET INFLOWS) FDI (NET INFLOWS) FDI (NET INFLOWS)
(US$ mn)(US$ mn)(US$ mn)(US$ mn)FOREIGNFOREIGNFOREIGNFOREIGN TRADE VOLUME TRADE VOLUME TRADE VOLUME TRADE VOLUME
(US$ bn)(US$ bn)(US$ bn)(US$ bn)
8
(US$ bn)(US$ bn)(US$ bn)(US$ bn)
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute Database. January 2011.
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
74%74%74%74%
5
245
2002 2009
6.6
28.7
2002 2009
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR
23%23%23%23%
TURKEY: In The Flow of a Major Global Resource Basin
Gateway Region as a % of Total Global ResourcesGateway Region as a % of Total Global ResourcesGateway Region as a % of Total Global ResourcesGateway Region as a % of Total Global Resources 1111
ENERGY MININGAGRICULTURAL
GOODS
Gateway Region Oil Natural Gas Coal Gold Platinum Copper Phosphate Wheat Cotton
MENA 64.7% 45.8% 0.2% 1.1% NA 1.5% 47.2% 7.1% 3.5%
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.1% 3.5% 2.9% 21.1% 88.7% 7.4% 10.5% 1.0% 5.9%
Russia/FSU 10.0% 30.7% 26.9% 17.9% 8.7% 7.3% 1.3% 15.3% 7.3%
Total 79.8% 79.6% 30.9% 40.1% 97.5% 16.3% 59.0% 23.4% 16.7%
9
2Source: BP Energy Statistical Review, June 2009, USGS Commodity Statistics and Information, December 2008, Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations, December 2008.
1 Source: radikal.com.tr , milliyet.com.tr, arsiv.ntvmsnbc.com, ilgazetesi.com.tr, alternaturk.org, zaman.com.tr.
Turkey as a major oil & gas transit countryTurkey as a major oil & gas transit countryTurkey as a major oil & gas transit countryTurkey as a major oil & gas transit country 2222
PER DAY OIL NATURAL GAS
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline ~ 2730 barrels
Iraq-Turkey Pipelines ~457 barrels
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Pipeline 10-14 mn m3
Iran –Turkey Pipeline ~18 mn m3
Russia-Turkey Pipelines ~54mn m3
Turkey- Europe Pipelines ~43 mn m3
TURKEY & MIDDLE EAST: Creating Regional Champions
with M&A – Private Equity
M&A Volume (US$ bn)M&A Volume (US$ bn)M&A Volume (US$ bn)M&A Volume (US$ bn) PE Investment Volume (US$ bn)PE Investment Volume (US$ bn)PE Investment Volume (US$ bn)PE Investment Volume (US$ bn)
34.0
39.437.2
9.2
30.6
2.2
5.45.7
2.7
10
Source: EMPEA Database, 2010; Ernst & Young M&A Transactions Report 2010.
9.2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0.9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
THANKTHANKTHANKTHANK YOU
TURKEY & MIDDLE EAST: A Fruitful Relationship
11
Disclosure Statement
PineBridge Investments is a group of international companies acquired by Pacific Century Group from American International Group, Inc. in March 2010.PineBridge companies provide investment advice and market asset management products and services to clients around the world.
PineBridge Investments is a service mark proprietary to PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited. Services and products are provided by one ormore affiliates of PineBridge Investments. Certain middle and back office functions incidental to the services and products provided byPineBridge Investments and its affiliates may be outsourced to third parties.
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In making an investment decision, prospective investors must rely on their own examination of the merits and risks involved.
Unless otherwise noted, all information contained herein is sourced from PineBridge Investments internal data.
12
Unless otherwise noted, all information contained herein is sourced from PineBridge Investments internal data.
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Rev. 29/11/2010