Tahoe Resources THO B Spec $20.00 CL SilverCrest …€¦ · Barrick Gold Corp. ABX N High $22.00 JW Goldcorp Inc. G N High $25.50 JW Kinross Gold Corp. K B High $6.50 JW Intermediate

Please see Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of this report. A division of Dundee Securities Ltd.

Dundee Capital Markets is a registered trademark of Dundee Corporation, used under license.

January 21, 2014

Josh Wolfson, CFA / (416) 350-5045 [email protected]

Jon French / (416) 350-3311 [email protected]

A Golden Glimmer Of Hope Emerging

DCM Precious Metals Coverage Universe Dundee is resuming coverage of the senior Canadian gold producers, Barrick (ABX-T; NEUTRAL rated; C$22.00 target), Goldcorp (G-T; NEUTRAL rated; $25.50 target), and Kinross (K-T; BUY rated; C$6.50 target). This complements DCM's existing coverage of the intermediate/junior producers, and developer group.

We remain positively biased on the long term prospects for gold prices. Our rationale is predicated upon a continuation of loose monetary policy and that demand for gold will remain strong from central banks and Asian markets. Key risks to our thesis include increasing real interest rates from policy tightening, a weak global economy, or the continuation of inventory sales due to interest in alternate investments or sales for liquidity purposes. Dundee gold price expectations incorporate $1,248/oz in 2014 and a long term gold forecasts of $1,325/oz.

Ultimately, we expect gold producers to benefit longer term from higher gold prices, although financial stress near term remains high and valuation is uninspiring to attract broader investment. Following the XAU gold index's devastating 48% decrease in 2013, we are issuing a neutral outlook for the gold mining industry, an improvement from our prior cautious view. Equity leverage to a potential increase in gold prices continues to hinge upon the ability for companies to contain operating and capital costs, and the maintenance or expansion of current elevated valuation levels. A renewed sector focus on margins, debt reduction, capital allocation, and risk management is encouraging. However, broadly we believe equity valuation has yet to adjust to the current pricing environment and equities incorporate an implied improvement in gold prices.

We recommend investors maintain a bias to producers with better quality operations, balance sheet strength, and trade at a reasonable valuation. Our forecasts are generally more conservative than consensus estimates and we anticipate downward consensus revisions to continue as gold price estimates are cut and financial models adapt to reflect a more realistic value of uneconomic assets. Generally, we believe the senior gold producers represent a weak risk-reward proposal for investors, and we see better risk-adjusted opportunities via intermediate and junior gold producers, and better reward via quality, funded developers, or lower risk gold exposure via the metal. For our new coverage, our preferred senior producer is Kinross, due to the company's successful turnaround efforts, but still heavily discounted relative valuation. We forecast the company will generate fair levels of near term free cash flow, while production estimates incorporate negligible development risk from new operations. The Dundee gold team also continues to recommend B2Gold, New Gold, and Randgold as preferred producer picks.

Company Ticker Rating

(1)

Risk Target

Price

Analyst

(2)

Senior Producers

Barrick Gold Corp. ABX N High $22.00 JW

Goldcorp Inc. G N High $25.50 JW

Kinross Gold Corp. K B High $6.50 JW

Intermediate Producers

Agnico-Eagle AEM N High $33.00 JW

Eldorado Gold Corp. ELD N High $7.50 JW

IAMGOLD Corp. IMG N High $4.50 JW

New Gold Inc. NGD B High $7.25 JW

Osisko Mining Corp OSK B High $7.00 JF

Randgold Resources GOLD B High US$90.00 JW

Yamana Gold Inc. YRI S High $10.00 JW

Junior Producers

Alamos Gold Inc. AGI B High $15.50 JW

AuRico Gold Inc. AUQ N High $5.00 JF

B2Gold Corp. BTO B High $3.50 JF

Dundee Precious Metals DPM NR N/A N/A JW

Kirkland Lake Gold KGI N High $3.50 JF

Perseus Mining Ltd. PRU N High $0.40 JW

Primero Mining P CN B High $6.50 JF

Timmins Gold Corp. TMM B High $2.25 JF

Developers/Explorecos

Belo Sun Mining BSX B Spec $0.75 JF

Continental Gold Ltd. CNL B Spec $5.50 JF

Torex Gold Resources TXG B Spec $2.00 JW

Silver

Coeur Mining CDM S High $8.50 CL

Endeavour Silver EDR N High $4.50 CL

First Majestic Silver FR B High $13.00 CL

Fortuna Silver Mines FVI B High $5.25 CL

Silver Standard SSO N Spec $10.00 CL

SilverCrest Mines SVL B High $2.25 CL

Tahoe Resources THO B Spec $20.00 CL

Pan American Silver PAAS N High $12.50 CL

Royalty

Franco Nevada FNV B Med. $51.00 CL

Silver Wheaton SLW B High $27.50 CL

(1) B - Buy, N - Neutral, S - Sell, NR- Not Rated. Refer to

disclosures for more information.(2) CL - Chris Lichtenheldt, JF - Joe Fazzini, JW -Josh Wolfson.

mailto:[email protected]


Senior Canadian Gold Producers January 21, 2014

DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS Page | 2

Contents

A CHALLENGING BACKDROP FOR GOLD EQUITIES ................................................................................................................. 4

DRIVERS FOR FUTURE RETURNS BEGINNING TO ALIGN ......................................................................................................... 5

FULLY LOADED COSTS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM 2013 LEVELS..................................................................................... 7

INDUSTRY CHALLENGES REMAIN, THREATENING THE OUTLOOK .......................................................................................... 9

LONG-TERM GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK POSITIVE, INTERIM PROJECTIONS SUBDUED ............................................................. 12

A UNIQUE SECTOR WITH DISTINCTIVE CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................................................... 19

GOLD EQUITY OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................................... 20

Drivers for Industry Equity Returns ................................................................................................................................... 20

Gold Equity Investment Opportunities .............................................................................................................................. 20

VALUATION PHILOSOPHY INCORPORATES BOTH LONG AND SHORT TERM VIEWS ............................................................. 22

SENIOR COVERAGE RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................................ 23

Portfolio Asset Margins ..................................................................................................................................................... 25

Operations at Risk.............................................................................................................................................................. 26

Production and Delivery Risk ............................................................................................................................................. 28

Geopolitical Exposure ........................................................................................................................................................ 31

Credit Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................... 32

Upcoming Catalysts ........................................................................................................................................................... 33

Published Estimates Relative to Consensus ...................................................................................................................... 35

Comparable Tables ............................................................................................................................................................ 36

BARRICK GOLD CORP. - BEARING THE WEIGHT OF DAYS GONE PAST; INITIATING WITH A NEUTRAL………….……………………37

Company Overview ........................................................................................................................................................... 40

Net Asset Valuation - At Spot Gold .................................................................................................................................... 41

Financial & Operating Forecasts - At Price Deck ............................................................................................................... 42

Key Assets .......................................................................................................................................................................... 44

Goldstrike (100% ownership; 6% of NAV; Nevada)............................................................................................................. 44

Cortez (100% ownership; 18% of NAV; Nevada) ................................................................................................................. 45

Lagunas Norte (100% ownership; 7% of NAV; Peru) .......................................................................................................... 46

Veladero (100% ownership; 11% of NAV; Argentina) ......................................................................................................... 47

Pueblo Viejo (60% ownership; 11% of NAV; Dominican Republic) ..................................................................................... 48

Pascua Lama (100% ownership; 12% of NAV; Argentina/Chile) ......................................................................................... 49

Zaldivar (100% ownership; 14% of NAV; Chile) .................................................................................................................. 50

Lumwana (100% ownership; 1% of NAV; Zambia) ............................................................................................................. 51



Other Operations ................................................................................................................................................................ 52

Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................... 54

GOLDCORP INC. - ELEVATED DELIVERY RISK, TRANSITION YEAR AHEAD; INITIATING WITH A NEUTRAL…………..……………..56



Financial Forecasts - At Price Deck .................................................................................................................................... 61

Key Assets .......................................................................................................................................................................... 63

Red Lake (100% ownership; 7% of NAV; Ontario) .............................................................................................................. 63

Pueblo Viejo (40% ownership; 16% of NAV; Dominican Republic) ..................................................................................... 64

Penasquito (100% ownership; 26% of NAV; Mexico) .......................................................................................................... 65

Cerro Negro (100% ownership; 9% of NAV; Argentina) .................................................................................................... 66

Eléonore (100% ownership; 9% of NAV; Quebec) ............................................................................................................... 67

Other Properties ................................................................................................................................................................. 68

Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................... 70

KINROSS GOLD CORP - IMPROVING CREDIBILITY AS TURNAROUND PROGRESSING; INITIATING WITH A BUY……………..….72



Financial Forecasts - At Price Deck .................................................................................................................................... 77

Key Assets .......................................................................................................................................................................... 79

Tasiast (100% ownership; 17% of NAV; Mauritania) .......................................................................................................... 79

Kupol (100% ownership; 31% of NAV; Russia) .................................................................................................................... 80

Paracatu (100% ownership; 21% of NAV; Brazil) ................................................................................................................ 81

Fort Knox (100% ownership; 12% of NAV; Alaska) ............................................................................................................. 82

Other Operations ................................................................................................................................................................ 83

Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................... 84

QUARTERLY EPS & CFPS ESTIMATES……………..…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..86



A CHALLENGING BACKDROP FOR GOLD EQUITIES

While investors have traditionally invested in gold producer equities as a proxy to gain operating leverage to higher gold prices, the group has substantially underperformed historical increases in gold prices. During the most recent gold cycle from 2000-2012, gold prices increased 482%, while gold equities increased 144%. Higher gold prices have resulted in the opportunity for producers to increase earnings and operating cash flow; however, free cash flow generation has not materialized.

Producers have failed to capture operating leverage available from higher gold prices due to industry inflationary pressures, which has impacted the opportunity for margin growth, and poor capital allocation, which has extended to dilutive M&A and the advancement of weak IRR projects.

Historical Performance of Gold and Gold Equities

Source: Bloomberg

Operating Cash Flow vs. Free Cash Flow for Major Gold Equities

Source: Bloomberg

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13

XA

U I

nd

ex

Go

ld P

rice (

US

$/o

z)

Gold (US$/oz) XAU Index

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

US

$B

illio

n

CFO before W/C (US$B) FCF (US$B)

From 2000-2012, gold prices outperformed gold equities by 338%, largely due to producers failing to improve margins from higher gold prices due to industry inflation pressures.

Higher gold prices have generated higher operating cash flow for producers, but free cash flow has not been generated.



DRIVERS FOR FUTURE RETURNS BEGINNING TO ALIGN

Dundee views the outlook for gold equities as improving based upon:

Increasing management emphasis on shareholder value creation, and, importantly, actions which are supportive of this direction.

Potential for higher margin reserves and production, at the expense of lower volumes and shorter mine lives.

Decreasing industry inflationary pressures, which have historically eroded the potential for margin growth.

Although past returns in the sector have been disappointing, encouraging signs of stability are beginning to materialize. Most importantly, value creation is now being measured in traditional investment metrics which would appeal to a broader investor base, including free cash flow and internal rate of return (at conservative gold prices). Although current valuation levels, in our view, are still not enticing to appeal to non-resource focused investors, we believe that potentially higher gold prices today would materialize in better returns for shareholders, unlike prior years.

While gold producer management teams have historically focused on shareholders, gold-specific industry metrics have traditionally focused on growth in resources and production. As a result of a deteriorating quality of the underlying drivers for these metrics, results have not translated to better financial results. Over the past decade, declining grades and rising operating as well as capital costs have resulted in stagnant margins, despite rising gold prices. Over this period, we estimate unit operating costs have increased by 156%, capital cost per unit of production output has increased 602%, while grade, representing the content of gold per unit of ore processed, has decreased by 44%.

Industry Processed Grades Have Decreased as Gold Prices Have Increased

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital markets

-

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Pro

cess

ed

Gra

de

(g

/t)

OP OP/UG UGOP = Open PitUG = Underground

We believe the outlook for gold equities is improving.

Declining processed grades have resulted in higher operating costs per ounce of production.



Operating/Capital Cost Pressures and Declining Grades Have Impacted Profitability

Source: Dundee Capital Markets

However, cost indicators today are indicative of an improving trend, driven by declining labour cost pressures, lower mining contractor and equipment costs, and weaker foreign currencies. Although lower gold prices today have substantially impacted corporate profitability and cash flow, a bleaker industry outlook at lower gold prices has also generated a renewed focus on reserve/production quality and capital allocation efficiency. Importantly, actions which support this mantra have also materialized, including a reduction of spending on projects with weak returns, increasingly conservative budgeting, general cost control, and mine closures where margins have been deemed insufficient.

Input Price Pressures Indicative of Cost Improvement

Source: Bloomberg, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Dundee Capital Markets

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Per

To

nn

e P

roce

ss

ing

Co

sts

(U

S$/t

)

Per Tonne Operating Costs

OP OP/UG UG

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Cap

ita

l S

pe

nt

at

Op

era

tin

g M

ine

s (

US

$/o

z)

Capital Costs at Operating Mines per Oz of Production

OP OP/UG UGOP = Open PitUG = Underground

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Yo

Y C

ha

ng

e

Australia Quartely Mining Wages - YoY Change

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Qu

art

erl

y O

pera

tin

g M

arg

in

Average Mining Equipment Manufacturer Profitability

Note: Composite average includes available data for Joy Global, Caterpillar, Outotec, Bucyrus, Major Drilling, and Komatsu . Bucyrus

Declining labour inflation and lower equipment costs expected to reduce inflationary cost pressures.

Rising unit costs and capital expenditure have impacted profitability.



Weakening Currencies Improve Production Costs for Non-US Based Producers

Source: Bloomberg, Dundee Capital Markets

FULLY LOADED COSTS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM 2013 LEVELS

As part of an industry movement to more accurately define production costs, in 2013, The World Gold Council introduced its all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance and all-in cost (AIC) guidance. Whereas commonly quoted 'total cash costs' had outlined purely on-site operating costs, all-in metrics seek to incorporate these costs as well as capital costs and corporate costs included on the income statement, such as G&A, and exploration. Generally, these new metrics outline the following:

AISC = Operating Costs + G&A + Exploration + Sustaining Capital Costs AIC = AISC + Growth capital

However, significant shortfalls for the measures remain. AISC fails to incorporate a number of key cash outflow items (i.e. taxes, interest), which Dundee views as true costs of production and a drag to free cash flow, while many companies utilize aggressive accounting to allocate high and ongoing capital costs at operating assets as project or growth-related, instead of sustaining. Although AIC more appropriately and unconditionally incorporates all capital at operating assets, irrespective of its category, development capital for future production is allocated over current production, thereby penalizing growth companies. Dundee's Fully Loaded cost analysis seeks to more accurately characterize the true free cash flow generation of a company's asset base by incorporating all costs for production matched with the operating assets over that period.

Dundee Fully Loaded costs are based upon:

DFL = Operating Costs + Capital costs at operating assets + G&A (excluding stock based compensation) + Exploration + Interest + Cash taxes

Cad

-7%

CLP

-9%

0.95

0.98

1.01

1.04

1.07

1.10

1-Jan-12 1-Jul-12 1-Jan-13 1-Jul-13 1-Jan-14

Canadian Dollar

Weaker by 7% in 2013

0.85

0.93

1.00

1.08

1.15


Australian Dollar


450

475

500

525

550


Chilean Peso


1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

2.50


Brazilian Real


All-in sustaining costs fail to incorporate important cost of production items, including taxes and interest.

Dundee Fully Loaded Costs more accurately characterize true free cash flow generation capacity of an asset.

Weaker FX rates benefit non-US based producers.



Undoubtedly, there is no one metric which will provide accurate insight for true production costs. Weaknesses for the Fully Loaded cost estimate include:

Excluding stock based compensation from costs, which is a true cost of production and dilutive to shareholders, but does not impact cash flow.

Incorporating cash taxes as a cost of production, which may be more irregular than tax expense and may understate costs where tax deferral is transient.

Including discretionary exploration costs as costs of production, which also applies to AISC/AIC.

On a total cash cost basis, Dundee estimates median senior and intermediate producer total cash cost estimated will decrease from $651/oz in 2013 to $642/oz in 2014 and $633/oz in 2015. Based on a Fully Loaded cost analysis, Dundee also forecasts an improvement in median costs for the sector, from $1,193/oz in 2013 to $1,084/oz in 2014 and $1,063/oz in 2015. Still, Dundee estimates 27% of 2014 production and 22% of 2015 production will operate at fully loaded costs above $1,250/oz. In our view, this highlights the risk to corporate forecasts, should gold prices correct further.

Dundee Co-Product Fully Loaded Cost Curves Forecast to Improve in 2014/2015


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Fu

lly L

oad

ed

Co

st

(U

S$/o

z)

Percent of Production For Intermediate and Senior Producers (Averaging 8.9 MMoz/year)

2013 2014 2015

Median Cost:2013 = $1,193/oz2014 = $1,084/oz2015 = $1,063/oz

Marginal Cost:2013 = $1,593/oz2014 = $1,350/oz2015 = $1,318/oz

From 2013 to 2015, senior and intermediate producer total cash costs and fully loaded costs are expected to decrease by 3% and 11%, respectively.



INDUSTRY CHALLENGES REMAIN, THREATENING THE OUTLOOK

Although we believe improving trends are materializing, sector risks remain elevated, including:

Weak industry free cash flow prospects at current gold prices, and uninspiring valuation levels to attract broader investment.

High sector debt levels, which reduces corporate financial flexibility. Potential downside risks, should gold price correct further.

Lower gold prices have impacted industry profitability and free cash flow, defined as operating cash flow, less capital expenditure. At our 2014 price deck, we estimate our senior and intermediate coverage universe will generate a free cash flow yield of 0.1%. Our senior and intermediate coverage universe would generate similar marginal free cash flow at current spot gold prices of $1,254/oz. To compete with the broader investment universe, which offered a free cash flow yield of 6.8% in 2013, we estimate gold prices would be required to average >$1,600/oz in 2014, compared to our forecast for $1,248/oz, and current spot gold prices of $1,254/oz.

Evaluating P/E, P/CF, and EV/EBITDA multiples for major producers, we estimate current consensus multiples are relatively in line with the materials sector and the broader market. Overall, we do not view current valuation multiples as compelling, although historically elevated P/E valuation for gold equities has reduced somewhat.

Current Valuation vs. Broader Investment Alternatives


Historical Sector Valuation - XAU INDEX FTM P/E


0

3

6

9

12

15

18

FTM P/E FTM P/CF FTM EV/EBITDA

S&P/TSX Global Gold S&P/TSX 500 S&P/TSX Materials

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20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014XAU FTM P/E

Low gold prices and high debt levels have increased downside risks for producers.

Current valuation multiples are in line with the materials sector and broader market, but are lower than historical values.



While low free cash flow has impacted industry investment attractiveness, lower gold prices has had a compounding negative impact to companies. As gold prices have decreased and corporate financial flexibility is reduced:

Marginal producing assets become liabilities as the threat of negative margins as well as high cost closures and rehabilitation materializes.

Unfunded development projects become non-productive assets on hand which are potentially no longer economic for advancement.

Existing reserves and mine plans must be revised, even for robust assets, where portions of mineralization are no longer economic, resulting in shorter mine lives, but potentially better margins.

Lower Gold Prices May Impact Reserve Price Calculation


Despite the risks that lower gold prices have presented to gold producers, our coverage universe P/NAV at spot gold multiple has expanded to 2.15x (generally utilizing a 5% discount rate for gold cash flow and 10% for base metals), in our view providing limited appeal to the long term value potential equities offer investors.

Alternatively, assuming current gold prices in perpetuity, the implied discount rate by gold equities is <0%, or assuming a discount rate of 5%, the average company is pricing in gold at $1,567/oz (at a 10% discount rate this would increase to $1,839/oz).

Gold Price Discounted By Equities


GOLD

ELD

YRI

K

G

AEM

OSK

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Go

ld p

rice u

sed

in

reserv

es

(US

$/o

z)

Cumulative ounces of gold (MMoz)Trailing 3 year price Spot Gold Gold price used in reserve calculation

ABX

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

0% 3% 5% 8% 10%

Go

ld P

rice

(U

S$

/oz)

Discount Rate

Lower assumed gold prices are expected to impact existing reserves and mine plans, which may result in shorter mine lives, but potentially better margins.



Beyond weak valuation prospects for equities at current gold prices, and despite poor equity performance in 2013, downside risks remain to equities. Beyond a re-evaluation of operating expectations, lower gold prices have threatened the financial outlook for gold companies. Lower gold prices have reduced production margins, while debt assumed during the most recent cycle has severely increased credit risk. Due to the volatile nature of gold prices and historically higher market valuation for gold equities, companies have traditionally relied upon equity markets for funding. In addition to the high operating leverage that gold producers offer, debt assumed during the most recent cycle has introduced an additional source of leverage, which we view as disconcerting.

Total Debt for Top 25 Gold Producers

Source: Bloomberg

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

Net

Deb

t ($

Mil

lio

ns)

Other Gold Producers ABX G K

ABX issued $4B in debt in its purchase of Equinox for $7.7B

Gold price leverage and risks have been magnified by recent trends of increasing debt levels.



LONG-TERM GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK POSITIVE, INTERIM PROJECTIONS SUBDUED

Dundee forecasts currently incorporate a long term supportive outlook for gold prices, but suggest no near-term recovery from current price levels. Dundee forecasts incorporate gold prices averaging $1,248/oz in 2014, $1,327/oz in 2015, and a long term gold price assumption of $1,325/oz. Our near term forecasts are in line with the current spot gold price of $1,254/oz, while our long term forecast is $1,325/oz.

Dundee's near-term gold price assumptions are calculated based on a probability weighted estimate of three different gold price scenarios:

Scenario A - Assumes the U.S. dollar will rise significantly over the next six quarters, the official sector is a net seller of gold, mine output rises at a lower rate, and hedging is expected to recommence.

Scenario B - Assumes the U.S. dollar will rise marginally over the next six quarters, the official sector is a net buyer of gold, mine output rises at a moderate rate, and hedging is expected to recommence (although more moderately than Scenario A).

Scenario C - Assumes the U.S. dollar will weaken over the next six quarters, the official sector is a net buyer of gold, mine output rises at a higher rate, and no hedging is expected.

Dundee Gold Probability Weighted Price Forecasts and Scenario Analysis


Dundee is of the view that the current selling pressure for gold represents a mid-cycle correction for the metal and that the long term outlook remains positive for gold. This is based upon:

Loose monetary policy continuing to support the current deleveraging cycle and that policy tightening will not occur quickly.

Ongoing investment in gold continuing from central bank demand (excessive FX reserves, diversification) and consumer demand (Asian market deregulation).

Investor and central bank holdings in gold being low relative to historical quantities.

Largely, these bullish factors are similar factors which contributed to the most recent bull cycle. Risks to our thesis are:

Real interest rates rise, a consequence of declining monetary easing and potential global liquidity contraction, which may result in a strengthening US dollar.

The global economy remains sluggish, commodity demand is weak, and a trend of disinflation is in place.

Gold inventories are sold for liquidity purposes or sold as other investments are preferred by investors.

Dundee views the outlook for the broader commodity space to be challenging, given low, but improving, prospects for global growth. Historically, global growth levels below 4% have been poor for commodity price performance. Dundee views 1H14 as a period of weaker growth and sees risks to commodity prices over this time frame.

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

Scenario A $1,123 $1,091 $1,060 $1,029 $1,009 $990

B $1,289 $1,279 $1,311 $1,341 $1,388 $1,399

C $1,385 $1,403 $1,490 $1,572 $1,688 $1,756

Probability A 40% 40% 35% 30% 30% 30%

B 45% 45% 50% 55% 55% 55%

C 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

Probability-Weighted $1,237 $1,223 $1,250 $1,282 $1,319 $1,330

Dundee forecasts a 2014 gold price of $1,248/oz.

Dundee sees central bank and investment demand, as well as ongoing loose monetary policy, as supportive for gold prices.

Rising real interest rates, slower global growth, and alternative investment preferences are risks for gold.



Global Growth vs. Commodity Price Performance

Source: IMF, Federal Reserve, Dundee Capital Markets

Recent Macroeconomic and Gold News


Unlike traditional commodities, gold inventories relative to production can be measured in years (as of year-end 2012, it was at 61x), compared to days or weeks for base metals and energy commodities. The majority of gold sits in inventory above ground as jewellery or for hoarding/investment, it is not consumed, and it has the potential to be mobile at a price.

Although primary gold mine supply is a factor in defining price, tracking the movement of above ground inventories is more impactful than tracking mine supply. An overwhelmingly larger quantity of above ground inventory is available for trading relative to mine supply. For example, over the past decade, maximum annual changes in investment demand and central bank demand were 932 tonnes and 380 tonnes respectively, compared to the

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

CR

B &

BO

C I

nd

ex

Wo

rld

GD

P (

%)

World GDP % Bank of Canada Index CRB Index

Commodities decline when world growth <4%

Global growth weaker than 4% is traditionally negative for commodity prices.



maximum annual change in mine supply of 127 tonnes. The ability for the market to absorb these significant swings in supply is notable.

High liquidity for gold is indicative of the other sources of gold supply than strictly mine supply. In 2011, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) completed a study to quantify over-the-counter gold trading volumes. Gold volumes traded in London in 1Q11 totaled 10.9 billion ounces, or 125 times annual global mine supply at the time, and 2 times the total amount of gold ever mined. Daily average turnover ranked gold only behind currency trading for the USD cross with the EUR, YEN, GBP, and AUD, and in our view, supports the metal's status as a highly liquid commodity.

Gold Above Ground Inventories are Significant Relative To Other Commodities

Source: GFMS, World Gold Council, Bloomberg, Dundee Capital Markets

Dundee views investment demand as a key factor to determining price direction for gold. In recent years, primary mine supply has grown, while industrial demand and jewellery has been declining, thereby creating a 'market surplus' for the metal (i.e. mine and scrap supply exceed jewelry and fabrication demand). Despite this surplus, gold prices increased from 2000 to 2012 due to net increases in investment demand and central bank purchases. Since 2001, we view the primary driver of investment demand to be a weakening U.S. dollar, inflation concerns, and reactions to the global financial crisis.

Gold Supply and Demand

Source: GFMS, World Gold Council

0

12

24

36

48

60

72

Gold Silver Nickel Zinc Copper

Inve

nto

ry i

n Y

ea

rs o

f P

rod

uc

tio

n

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

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4,000

6,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Go

ld T

on

ne

s

Primary Supply Primary Fabrication Demand Investment Demand and Central Bank Purchases

Unlike other commodities, above ground inventories for gold are significant relative to annual mine supply.

Declining jewelry and industrial demand has placed increasing pressure on investment demand to pick up the slack.



Although gold prices benefit from current loose monetary policy, a recent redeployment of capital towards alternative investment options, in particular equities, has reduced investment demand for the metal. In 2013, physical gold held by major gold ETF's decreased by 828 tonnes, while net speculative gold positions held on the CFTC futures exchange decreased by 257 tonnes. Compared to Dundee estimated annual mine supply in 2013 of 2,905 tonnes, these sources of supply, which had more recently been significant sources of demand, had placed material downward pressure on prices.

CFTC Speculative ETF Positions and GLD ETF Holdings

Source: Bloomberg, ExchangeTradedGold.com

Dundee views real interest rates as a key factor for determining investment demand, and therefore gold price direction. As real interest rates increase and attractive returns can be gained by investment in higher yielding financial instruments, investors decrease gold holdings. Similarly, as the opportunity cost for holding gold decreases with low real interest rates, investment demand increases. While volatile on a short term basis, the long term performance of gold correlates strongly to real interest rates.

More recently, gold's decrease in price can be matched to decreasing real interest rates, exhibited by weak performance from 10-year TIPS yields on the following, and in our view reflecting the market's response to growing expectations for US monetary tapering. Higher expected US interest rates are also positive to the US dollar as capital flows are encouraged, and a negative correlation for gold to the US dollar exists. However, short term gold correlation to the US dollar regularly breaks down when more significant events occur, before a trend of correlation re-establishes itself. Although gold correlation to the U.S. dollar exists over long periods of time, frequently the gold price may appreciate when the U.S. dollar remains strong. Gold's weaker correlation to other investment options is often cited as a supporting rationale for its inclusion in portfolios as a diversifier and reducer of risk-adjusted returns.

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Average Monthly Gold Returns vs. US Real Interest Rates (1968-2013)

Source: Bloomberg

Gold vs. 10-Year TIPS Yield

Source: Bloomberg

* Real Interest Rate calculated as the monthly yield of US Federal Reserve one-year t-note with constant maturity adjusted for inflation.

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Gold - U.S. Dollar Relationship Frequently Breaks Down

Source: Bloomberg

Gold Correlation to Other Assets Is Weak, Thereby Providing Diversification Benefits

Source: CPM Group

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Gold Inflation TWD DJIA S&P T-Bill T-Bond Silver

1991 (18%) 25% (64%) (25%) 3% 56% 62%

1992 32% 53% (33%) 0% 8% 39% (6%)

1993 (9%) 64% 8% 25% 42% 40% 65%

1994 13% (38%) (22%) 4% (18%) 6% 72%

1995 (34%) (37%) 32% 14% (54%) (6%) 56%

1996 (54%) 4% 34% 23% (67%) 7% 80%

1997 27% (48%) (51%) (53%) (39%) 29% 1%

1998 (72%) (50%) 66% 48% (35%) 52% 59%

1999 24% (39%) (1%) 16% 11% (10%) 22%

2000 (13%) (27%) (52%) (24%) (19%) (16%) 61%

2001 10% (39%) (51%) (43%) (13%) 5% 59%

2002 (20%) 4% (27%) (12%) 20% (24%) 43%

2003 (31%) (32%) (30%) (22%) (1%) (53%) 55%

2004 38% (87%) 28% 26% 32% (9%) 65%

2005 47% (61%) (5%) (13%) (32%) 19% 72%

2006 18% (73%) (23%) (26%) 38% 17% 85%

2007 32% (60%) (11%) (7%) (16%) (71%) 92%

2008 (12%) (65%) (2%) 0% (22%) (10%) 88%

2009 30% 36% (65%) (68%) 30% 5% 80%

2010 (26%) (2%) (19%) (15%) (74%) 5% 68%

2011 32% (11%) 1% (63%) 13% 28% 58%

2012 15% (82%) 24% 49% 9% 43% 94%

1970 - 2012 8% (33%) (4%) (5%) 3% 4% 69%

1990 - 2012 (7%) (35%) (17%) (13%) 6% (1%) 63%

2000 - 2012 (5%) (38%) (18%) (14%) 6% (5%) 72%

2008 - 2012 (11%) (33%) (18%) (17%) 9% 0% 77%

Gold prices are inversely correlated to the US dollar. However, this relationship frequently breaks down.

Gold prices exhibit a weak correlation with most other investment options.



Going forward, Dundee expects gold price volatility to remain high, as the market digests Federal Reserve tapering timing and extent as well as equity return and interest rate directions, following significant price changes in 2013. Much like the S&P500 volatility index ("VIX") provides insight into implied volatility expectations for the broader market based on index options, the GVZ Gold Volatility Index provides similar insight into expected volatility for gold based on the GLD ETF. Since April 2013, future volatility expectations have increased considerably from approximately 14% to beyond 20%, representing the expected annualized movement in GLD for the upcoming 30-day period. Interestingly, volatility expectations have recently started to decrease.

Gold Price Quarterly Average and Annualized Volatility


Gold Volatility Index (GVZ)


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1Q13Average Gold Price: $1,630/ozAnnualized Volatility:11%




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Gold price volatility is currently elevated, and market expectations forecast this will continue.



A UNIQUE SECTOR WITH DISTINCTIVE CHARACTERISTICS

While gold prices receive considerable attention, the gold mining sector carries a relatively insignificant weighting in the broader market. Compared to base metals, other resource related sectors such as energy, or major equities, the gold market is considerably smaller. When evaluating the combined capitalization of North American listed gold producers, the total is less than a single diversified miner, such as BHP Billiton. Marginal investment (or disinvestment) has the potential to have a dramatic impact on equity prices, resulting in volatile share prices.

The scarcity factor of investable gold equities partially explains a valuation premium to the broader market, although in recent years this factor has diminished as the GLD physical gold metal ETF and inflation-linked investment options have created an alternative option to gold equities.

Gold Industry Market Capitalization

Source: Bloomberg

The gold mining is a global industry, with mines in production on all continents except Antarctica. The relative ease of portability for the high value, compact finished product, dore, results in mines being capable of being developed in remote areas of the world. Given the long timelines from initial discovery to commencement of mine development (~6-8 years), and substantial up-front capital investment required with long payback timelines (usually 2-4 years), managing political risk is a key component for companies in the sector.

Although mergers and acquisitions occasionally take place, the global nature of gold companies offers limited appeal to grouping operations. Economies of scale are generally not provided by these transactions. Alternatively, these transactions may seek to exploit valuation trends/arbitrage or a desire to increase visibility or liquidity. Goldcorp’s January 2014 proposed acquisition of Osisko is a recent example of a transaction which is expected to offer limited synergies, but exploit valuation arbitrage and improve financial liquidity.

Gold Production - Top 20 Countries

Source: Bloomberg

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Gold mining is a global industry and production is not concentrated amongst a limited number of countries.



GOLD EQUITY OVERVIEW

Drivers for Industry Equity Returns

Dundee projects the following key drivers will define gold producer equity returns:

Gold price direction. Changes in the gold price have a direct impact on producer profitability and equity returns. However, Dundee believes only a select group of companies have the capacity to generate value for shareholders at current gold prices and recommends investment selectivity amongst producers. Dundee maintains a positive long term perspective on gold prices, but forecasts no material price recovery near term.

Free cash flow generation. Following a prolonged period of lackluster cash generation for gold producers, despite rising earnings and cash flow, we expect actual cash generation from operations will become the most relevant metric for determining short term operating performance. Under this outlook, current performance is expected to be weighted more heavily than growth. Dundee expects growth capital allocation to be increasingly scrutinized against the potential for margin impairment, incremental financial risk assumed, and the potential for higher technical risk.

Execution capacity. Gold intermediate and senior producers under coverage over a five year period from 2008-2012 missed production guidance 33% of the time and missed cost guidance 50% of the time. While gold investors are familiar with the uncertainties and risks of mining, an important part of attracting new capital will be successful execution and the achievement of both short and long term targets. Should management, who have the greatest access to information, be incapable of providing accurate projections, Dundee expects attracting new capital to the sector will continue to be a challenge.

Cost containment and margin control. Over a five year period from 2008 - 2012, we estimate unit operating costs increased 28%, while capital costs at operating mines increased 109%, compared to the gold price change of 100% over the same period. Excessive historical inflationary pressures and poor cost management has previously impacted the potential for expanding margins from higher gold prices. Dundee expects those companies which can control costs and exercise discipline, thereby demonstrating margin expansion from a potential increase in gold prices, to be rewarded by investors.

Management of financial risk. High gold prices had historically provided a motivation for increasing industry capital expenditure, the assumption of debt, and distribution of dividends, although declining gold prices has impacted aggressive management decisions. Current lower gold prices and high sector financial leverage have greatly increased financial risk, should gold prices stay at current levels or decrease further. Dundee views low financial leverage to be key for producers to ensure financial health, given high gold price volatility. The ability for producers to maintain low leverage is an important measure to reducing downside risk.

Gold Equity Investment Opportunities

In our evaluation of gold producers, we have separated gold companies according to four categories, with our broad perspective of each group below. Our evaluation of the sector is predominantly focused upon producers, with particular emphasis on the senior group. We consider:

Seniors producers as companies with current output or a pipeline to production of >2.0 MMoz. Seniors typically have a higher number of operating assets which are diversified across a greater number of jurisdictions. Corporate strategy, production profiles, and capital allocation are key attributes for consideration. Historically the seniors are the strongest financially positioned, however rising debt levels have severely limited senior producer flexibility. These companies have undergone the greatest changes in



management and strategy to accommodate the current gold price environment, as these changes are required to generate a material impact to the bottom line. Despite a weaker track record of the group, valuation of the seniors is highest. Dundee views this group as providing weaker risk-returns than the more financially flexible intermediate group, although having greater trading liquidity and access to capital is a distinguishable figure.

Intermediate and junior producers as companies with <2.0 MMoz. Intermediate and junior producers may have one or more operating assets, although production and reserves are typically concentrated in fewer mines. Risk management, financing, and capital allocation are key attributes for consideration. Dundee views operating flexibility and financial leverage as challenges for this group; however, the spectrum of these risks range considerably by company. Many intermediate and junior producers have also implemented operating and strategy changes, and given fewer operating and corporate risks, the net impact is more significant than for the senior producers. Dundee views both equity valuation dispersion and the risk spectrum as widest amongst this group, thereby providing the highest opportunity for investment return differentials amongst individual equity selection.

Advanced developers are companies nearing or currently engaged in mine construction. Advanced developers are exposed to higher risks, but have the potential to yield greater returns with project advancement, production, or acquisition. Financing risk, market liquidity, and achievement of development targets remain very high risks for developers, with more severe consequences in the current market environment should challenges be experienced. Dundee views the reward opportunity as highest amongst the advanced developer group for longer time horizon investors, although investment options are limited and risks are quite elevated.

Explorers are companies with projects or properties being advanced to resource definition or a construction decision. Explorers are typically exposed to the highest uncertainties and may face considerable political, financial, and technical risk. However, the group also has the potential to demonstrate the greatest amount of value creation through the advancement of a project from discovery to resource delineation to initial production. Financing risk and market illiquidity is highest amongst this group. Dundee views increasingly conservative producer strategies as having diminished the appetite for acquisition of earlier stage exploration companies. An increasing trend of explorer earn-in agreements with producers provides the ability for exploration projects to progress, while it is funded by financially supportive producers. While investment opportunities are broad, Dundee recommends risk-tolerant investors select only companies with assets which have the highest probability for economic development (i.e. above average grades, proven processing technique), with an experienced management team in place, focused on minimizing risks, and maximizing available capital.



VALUATION PHILOSOPHY INCORPORATES BOTH LONG AND SHORT TERM VIEWS

When evaluating target price valuation for producer mining equities, Dundee evaluates both long and short term performance, contrasted below:

Short term - i.e. P/CF, P/E, EV/EBITDA, FCF/EV

Readily available financial data, easily comparable across sectors. Better representation of current performance and fewer assumptions required. No consideration for upcoming changes in operations, risk, reserve life. Can favor short term results, understate near term risks to targets.

Long term - i.e. P/NAV

All cash flows are accounted for, weighted according to time value of money. Accounts for project uniqueness, anticipated changes in operations. Many variables and assumptions required, can be manipulated. Highly sensitive to both discount rate and commodity price assumptions.

Dundee believes that it is key for investors to recognize that a mine is a finite resource, and operating changes are inherently part of a mine plan (i.e. grade, metallurgy, processing), while capital investment is irregular. Below we illustrate annual changes for an operating mine, where near term metrics would fail to capture changes beyond a 1-2 year outlook.

Annual Changes Experienced at Barrick's Cortez Mine

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets

NAV most appropriately captures all available information and future expectations. However, substantial changes in the gold price have amplified assumption uncertainties, including the definition of what economic reserves are and the economics of long term mine plans where margins are weak. Similarly, short term earnings, cash flow, and free cash flow, while historically indicative of operating performance, has been impacted by increasing accounting variance for the capitalization of costs, rising financial leverage, and inflated growth capital expenditure. In our view, traditional metrics have been weakened by this variance and are not an accurate comparable across companies.

For the analysis of NAV, Dundee applies a discount rate of 5% for gold cash flow and 10% for non-gold cash flow. Both discount rates are traditionally applied by investors. Although we view investor required returns as higher, observed equity cost of capital is low. For short term performance, Dundee evaluates operating cash flow as well an operating cash flow estimate which deducts non-growth capital expenditure, typically defined more strictly as capital allocated to non-producing assets, to create an equally comparable figure across our coverage universe.

Dundee mine level estimates generally incorporate modest operating cost inflation over a 3 year period and ongoing high sustaining capital costs, while reserve additions and resource conversion is incorporated to reflect a realistic outlook, evaluated on an individual asset basis. Exploration projects which offer low returns or have limited prospects of being financed are attributed a nominal value.

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SENIOR COVERAGE RECOMMENDATIONS

We evaluate our resumption of senior gold equity coverage within the context of our existing intermediate producer group coverage. Our perspectives are based upon a three factor analysis of risk, return, and quality. Our risk and quality analysis generates the multiples which we apply to determine target prices, while we weigh this in the context of our three return factors.

Return - i.e. Share price performance. This incorporates:

Upcoming catalysts. Long term potential shareholder returns via P/NAV. Short term potential shareholder returns via operating cash flow, adjusted for

non-growth capital.

Risk - i.e. Potential downside. This incorporates:

Financial indebtedness and scheduled repayments. Geopolitical exposure and associated production/fiscal term uncertainties. Achievement of guidance and growth-related uncertainties.

Quality - i.e. Flexibility. This incorporates:

Portfolio asset margins. Outlook sensitivity, assuming current gold prices are sustained or decrease. Management strategy and growth pipeline.

Our recommendations and price targets are as follows:

Senior and Intermediate Producer Ratings and Recommendations


Barrick

We are initiating coverage of Barrick with a NEUTRAL rating and C$22.00 price target. Barrick is expected to generate sizable near term free cash flow relative to its peers. While we forecast no near term funding risks for the company, longer term the company’s substantial debt load is expected to consume these cash flows, reduce operating flexibility, and increasing downside risks should gold price correct further. Barrick features a core of world class assets, which account for a material portion of the company’s valuation, and are generally located in better jurisdictions. Development risk is above average for Barrick, and although the company’s projects are of higher quality (Pascua Lama, Goldrush), timelines and capital requirements remain highly uncertain. Both growth prospects and upcoming catalysts for Barrick are limited, and declining production is expected beyond 2016, in particular should Pascua Lama be delayed beyond 2017.

Company Ticker Price

17-Jan-14

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Senior Producers

Barrick Gold Corp. ABX C$20.61 N High $22.00 7% 1.3x 12x JW

Goldcorp Inc. G C$25.43 N High $25.50 0% 1.6x 16x JW

Kinross Gold Corp. K C$5.22 B High $6.50 25% 1.1x 10x JW


Agnico-Eagle AEM C$32.21 N High $33.00 8% 1.5x 13x JW

Eldorado Gold Corp. ELD C$7.32 N High $7.50 13% 1.3x 13x JW

IAMGOLD Corp. IMG C$4.45 N High $4.50 9% 0.9x 6x JW

New Gold Inc. NGD C$6.38 B High $7.25 17% 1.4x 15x JW

Osisko Mining Corp OSK C$6.47 B High $7.00 12% 1.3x - JF

Randgold Resources GOLD US$65.32 B High US$90.00 43% 1.6x 16x JW

Yamana Gold Inc. YRI C$10.54 S High $10.00 -3% 1.3x 13x JW

(1) B - Buy, N - Neutral, S - Sell, NR- Not Rated. Refer to disclosures for more information.

(2) JF - Joe Fazzini, JW -Josh Wolfson.



What would make us more constructive: Should Barrick successfully reduce its debt load (i.e. strategic partnerships, better cash flow), or the company’s valuation contract meaningfully, we would seek to be more positive.

Barrick valuation at spot gold:

3.06x P/NAV, above peers at 2.15x.

6.2x / 5.4x 2014E / 2015E P/CF, below peers at 9.3x / 8.2x.

3.1% / 3.0% 2014E / 2015E FCF Yield, above peers at 0.1% / 2.1%.

Goldcorp

We are initiating coverage of Goldcorp with a NEUTRAL rating and C$25.50 price target. We believe Goldcorp’s premium NAV and cash flow valuation already reflects its catalyst and growth outlook, while delivery risks remain. Goldcorp is scheduled to deliver three growth projects in 2014 (Cerro Negro, Cochenour, Eléonore), and it is currently engaged in a hostile proposal to acquire Osisko. Should Goldcorp achieve its growth targets, future free cash flow will grow meaningfully, although near term delivery risk is very high for the company in 2H14. Financial risk is also elevated, although we currently anticipate the company has flexibility to manage these risks with the monetization of its equity portfolio, draw down of its line of credit, and debt refinancing. Goldcorp maintains a higher quality asset base, which is located in better quality jurisdictions. The company also has several potential longer term growth projects.

What would make us more constructive: Should Goldcorp successfully deliver its growth projects or its valuation more appropriately reflect the risks associated with its assets, we would seek to be more positive.

Goldcorp valuation at spot gold:

2.25x P/NAV, above peers at 2.15x.

17.5x / 13.1x 2014E / 2015E P/CF, above its peers at 9.3x / 8.2x.

(5.3)% / 2.6% 2014E / 2015E FCF Yield, mixed compared to peers at 0.1% / 2.1%.

Kinross

We are initiating on Kinross with a BUY rating and C$6.50 price target. In recent quarters, Kinross has improved its credibility by executing on its targets and reducing its costs. In our view, the market has yet to recognize these efforts and shares trade at a significant discount to its senior producer peers. Although Kinross on average operates higher cost operations, which are located in higher risk jurisdictions, the company is expected to generate fair free cash flow over the interim and we see limited delivery risk to our expectations, given nominal ramp-up requirements. While the company has little delivery risk, it also has no growth pipeline, and we expect the company’s production base to decline beyond 2016. We believe material financial flexibility and good near term free cash flow provides the company with better flexibility than its peers.

Kinross valuation at spot gold:

1.77x P/NAV, below peers at 2.15x.

6.1x / 6.1x 2014E / 2015E P/CF, below peers at 9.3x / 8.2x.

1.3% / 2.9% 2014E / 2015E FCF Yield, above peers at 0.1% / 2.1%.



Portfolio Asset Margins

Below we provide an analysis of Dundee Fully Loaded Costs from 2013-2015 by company on both a co-product and by-product basis, sorted according to 2015E costs. Key points for the senior producers:

Both Goldcorp and Barrick rank very favourably due to both companies' large, low cost assets. Kinross is currently a higher cost producer compared the group.

Kinross' costs are expected to demonstrate the largest improvement over this period, due to declining spending at Tasiast and increased production from the company's low cost Kupol/Dvoinoye asset.

Goldcorp costs are expected to improve as the company ramps up its three development projects, Cerro Negro, Eleonore, and Cochenour. Barrick's costs are expected to decrease due to decreasing capital expenditure and cost cutting.

Dundee Co-Product Fully Loaded Costs


Dundee By-Product Fully Loaded Costs


Note

Fully loaded costs = total cash costs + site capex + exploration+ corporate G&A (less share based comp, interest & current taxes

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Operations at Risk

Corporate cost profiles on the previous page provides insight into a company's overall asset base, although it may misappropriate risks for diversified companies, such as the senior producers. By suggesting that a company is a low cost producer, the risk of closure and costs at a company's high cost small operations may be understated. Below we rank fully loaded costs by asset, sorted by ascending value. We highlight that a mine is at risk of closure only if it cannot cover its site level cost of production (operating + capital costs). Where a company's assets are generating positive margins at the site level, but are below fully loaded costs, which include corporate overhead costs, it may still be advantageous to maintain operations in order for it to contribute a portion of the corporate overhead costs.

Barrick boasts low corporate costs, weighted by a low number of high quality assets which operate at robust margins, including Cortez, Pueblo Viejo, Lagunas Norte, Veladero, and Goldstrike. The company also has a number of less meaningful, but lower margin assets, including its African Barrick mines, and smaller North and South American operations. Barrick has already instituted closure plans for its other South American operations (Pierina), while African Barrick operations, which we expect to reduce costs, have the potential to be impacted by lower gold prices.

Barrick 2013-2015 Estimated Co-Product Fully Loaded Cost Comparison by Asset

Source: Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

Goldcorp also has low corporate costs, supported by significant low cost volume output at Pueblo Viejo, Marlin, Red Lake, and Porcupine. Future production from Cerro Negro is also expected to contribute to overall low costs for Goldcorp. However, above average cost output and high volume production from Penasquito as well as Los Filos increases Goldcorp's average costs, although we note that Penasquito benefits from significant by-product metal production, which would buffer the mine from a potential decrease in gold prices. High cost production at Goldcorp's Marigold has the potential to be impacted by lower gold prices.

Notes

1. Fully loaded costs = total cash costs + capex at operating assets + exploration + corporate G&A (less share based comp) + interest + cash taxes.

2. Percentage of 2015 corporate equity production.

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2013E 2014E 2015E



Goldcorp 2013-2015 Estimated Co-Product Fully Loaded Cost Comparison by Asset


Kinross, while having above average costs, substantially benefits from low cost production at Kupol, Fort Knox, and our expectation for declining costs at Chirano due to higher grade and higher volume underground mine output. However, overall costs are anchored upwards by high output at several above-average cost mines, including Paracatu, Tasiast, and Round Mountain. Although we forecast substantial future cost reduction at Maricunga (cost reduction) and Tasiast (higher grades from Greenschist zone), both mines remain high cost operations and would be impacted by a decrease in gold prices.

2013-2015 Estimated Kinross Co-Product Fully Loaded Cost Comparison by Asset


Notes



0

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0

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500

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1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

Kup/Dvoy.(24%)²

Fort Knox(15%)²

Chirano (11%)² Kettle River(1%)²

Rnd Mtn (7%)² Paracatu(21%)²

Maricunga(9%)²

Tasiast (12%)² La Coipa (0%)²

Fu

lly L

oa

de

d C

ost

s (U

S$/o

z)

2013E 2014E 2015E

$3,878/oz



Production and Delivery Risk

Although growth across most industries is a reasonable investor preference, the prospect of achieving sustainable growth for a mining company with a portfolio of finite life assets is challenging and impractical over the long term. Moreover, growth in production does not necessarily translate to growth in cash flow, where asset quality is diluted or delivery risk is high, and the prospects of searching for growth may come at the sacrifice of shareholder dilution. Generally, we find the concept of paying a substantially higher premium for more uncertain growth-related cash flows to be questionable when, all else equal, an investor should prefer to maximize near term cash flows. Despite this, gold investors have traditionally applied a higher value to longer dated, higher risk cash flows.

Below we outline two companies with identical NPV's, but considerably different cash flow profiles. While gold investors would traditionally apply a premium valuation to Company B, we find this counter-intuitive, given that the NPV5% today for each company is identical. Furthermore, Company B's cash flows would be associated with higher delivery risk, not to mention a longer payback period. i.e. By the end of year 3, Company A would have recovered 57% of the NPV5%, while Company B would have recovered only 22% of the NPV5%.

Declining Production vs. Growth Production


0.0

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

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Flo

w (

$)

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Company A Company B

Company A Company B

Year Cash Flow Cumulative

CF/NPV5%

Cash Flow Cumulative

CF/NPV5%

0 4.0 14% 1.0 4%

1 4.0 29% 1.1 8%

2 4.0 43% 1.6 13%

3 4.0 57% 2.5 22%

4 3.8 71% 3.7 35%

5 3.4 83% 4.1 50%

6 3.1 94% 4.4 66%

7 2.8 104% 5.0 84%

8 2.5 113% 5.2 102%

9 2.2 121% 5.5 122%

10 2.0 128% 5.7 143%

NPV0% $35.8 $39.8

NPV5% $27.9 $27.9



In general, we view risks associated with delivering a mine into production (financing risk, technical risk, capital and operating cost uncertainty), as understated in the market. While all companies in the gold sector have struggled to achieve guidance, companies with growth projections have historically been exposed to higher delivery risks. Below we outline the long term growth projections for two companies with historically aggressive growth projections, Yamana and Goldcorp. Notably, long term projections have faced consistent delays and reductions, highlighting the heightened risks which growth gold mining companies face.

Goldcorp Historical Five Year Guidance by Release Date vs. Actual Realized Production


Yamana Historical Three Year Guidance by Release Date vs. Actual Realized Production


2.0

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Actual Production



Below we provide a list of assets by company which are expected to be delivered into production in the interim. While these deliverables represent key catalysts for companies, they also represent risks. We quantify this risk by sorting companies by the proportion of assets which are not in commercial production, according to NAV and 2015 production volumes. A higher proportion of production in non-producing assets by NAV represents risks to our long term valuation for a company, while a higher proportion in non-producing assets in 2015 production volume represents risks to near term operating results and cash flow forecasts.

Deliverable Table


NAV and 2015 Cash Flow at Risk by Company

Source: Dundee Capital Markets estimates

Sr. Producer Asset Risk Date Details

Barrick Pueblo Viejo Low - Commercial production declared. Ramp-up to full capacity in 1H14

Jabal Sayid Medium - Commissioning halted due to permitting approvals required to commence operations.

Pascua Lama High - Suspension of development due to severe capital cost inflation, permitting uncertainties.

Goldrush High - Project economics largely unknown. Pre-feasibility study expected in mid-2015.

Goldcorp Pueblo Viejo Low - Commercial production declared. Ramp-up to full capacity in 1H14

Cerro Negro High Mid-2014 Exposed to country risk, inflation concerns. Weak track record of delivery a reasonable concern.

Eléonore High 4Q14 Commissioning 4Q14. Capex recently increased to $1.8-$1.9B in 1Q14.

Cochenour Medium 4Q14 New mine for existing Red Lake complex processing facilities.

Kinross Dvoinoye Low 4Q13 Commercial production declared in October. Ramp-up to full capacity in 1H14

Int. Producer Asset Risk Date Details

Agnico-Eagle Goldex Low 4Q13 Commercial production expected for new M+E Zones, restart of milling facilities.

La India Medium 1Q14 Commercial production for new mine, simple heap leach processing.

Meliadine High - Complex and high initial capex project. Feasibility study in 4Q14, potential production in 2017+.

Eldorado Skouries High 2016 Political/inflation/financing risk. Initial production delayed to 2016.

Olympias High 1Q14 Political/inflation/financing risk. Technical uncertainties. Phase I commercial production delayed.

Perama Hill High 2H14 Political uncertainty, continuous delays experienced for permitting.

Kisladag exp. Medium - Deferred, expansion EIA permitting continues.

Eastern Dragon High - Seeking permits, continuous delays experienced

Certej High 2016-2017 Permit uncertainty. Updated economics under evaluation

IAMGOLD Westwood High 3Q14 Commercial production delayed, ground stability and mine plan uncertainties

New Gold Rainy River High 2016 Permitting in progress. Financing outlook uncertain, weaker economics at low gold prices.

Blackwater High - Weak economics, development deferred

Osisko - - - -

Randgold Kibali Medium 4Q13 Comm. production achieved. Key deliverables to be sulphide circuit (1Q14) and UG mine (2015).

Gounkoto UG Medium - OP/UG tradeoff feasibility study expected in 2014, to supplement existing OP mine.

Massawa High - Massawa feasibility study expected by year end 2014. Uncertain metallurgy, power plan.

Yamana Ernesto/Pau-a-Pique High 2H14 Commercial delays continue. Mine being re-evaluated as a near-surface UG mine.

C1 Santa Luz Medium 1H14 Commercial delays (prev. exp by late 3Q13)

Pilar Medium 1H14 Commercial delays (prev. exp by year end 2013)

Cerro Moro High 2016 Feasibility results in 2014, initial production expected in 2016. Argentina, FX, inflation uncertainties.

0%

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ELD IMG GOLD ABX G AEM NGD K OSK

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2015E

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at R

isk



Geopolitical Exposure

Below we compare geopolitical risk exposure for companies under coverage. We base our estimates upon Fraser Institute rankings for each country, applied to our NAV estimate by asset. A higher policy index value indicates lower political risk. Key points:

Both Barrick and Goldcorp rank favourably on this metric, while Kinross ranks poorly. Barrick ranks favourably due to its large assets being located in the better political

jurisdictions of Nevada, Chile, and Australia. Although Barrick has exposure to higher risk countries, such as Argentina, PNG, Dominican Republic, and Tanzania, these assets constitute a smaller portion of the company's total valuation.

Goldcorp ranks favourably due to the company's sizable assets and production in Canada and the U.S. Although Goldcorp has a fewer number of operations in high risk jurisdictions, these are more meaningful contributors to overall NAV and are located in the higher risks countries of Guatemala, Argentina, and Dominican Republic.

Kinross ranks poorly due to a limited number of its assets located in jurisdictions with low political risk. The company's material operations are located in the higher risk jurisdictions of Russia, Mauritania, and Ghana.

Geopolitical Risk by Company

Source: Fraser Institute, Bloomberg, Dundee Capital Markets

Fraser Institute Country/Region Rankings

Source: Fraser Institute

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

OSK AEM IMG ABX NGD G YRI K ELD GOLD

Po

licy P

ote

nti

al

Ind

ex

Country/Region PPI Rating Country/Region PPI Rating Country/Region PPI Rating

Finland 96% New South Wales, Aus 56% Zambia 42%

Nevada 85% Montana 56% Brazil 38%

Quebec 82% Washington 56% Suriname 31%

Quebec 82% Argentina 55% China 29%

WesternAustralia 79% Bulgaria 54% Russia 28%

Ontario 78% Armenia 50% Cote d'Ivoire 27%

Alaska 76% Turkey 50% Senegal 27%

Chile 68% South Dakota 50% PNG 26%

Namibia 64% Ghana 48% Mali 25%

BritishColumbia 64% Saudi Arabia 48% Greece 16%

Mauritania 62% Burkina Faso 46% Guatemala 14%

Nunavut 60% California 45% DRC 12%

Mexico 57% Peru 42%

Note

The Policy Potential Index measures the overall policy attractiveness of the jurisdictions in the survey, comprised of 15 policy factors that affect

investment decision. Results are normalized to a maximum score of 100.



Credit Analysis

Below we provide a sensitivity analysis of credit health for senior and intermediate producers.

Key Takeaways:

Both Barrick and Goldcorp carry high levels of debt relative to EBITDA in 2014, although Goldcorp's leverage is expected to improve in 2015 from growth in EBITDA as a result of its ramp-up operations. We note that Barrick has no major debt due until 2021, while Goldcorp has a convertible debenture with a face value of $862MM due August 2014, which we believe increases the company's likelihood of refinancing. Although Goldcorp intends to draw down on a credit line of $1.25B to finance the $0.9B cash portion of its proposed Osisko acquisition, we forecast that Goldcorp’s credit risk would decrease due to the positive contribution of Osisko’s projected EBITDA.

Kinross has below-average debt/EBITDA. Kinross also maintains a substantial cash balance relative to its debt position. The company's earliest debt due is $250MM in 4Q16, providing the company with additional flexibility.

Publicly Traded Debt Information

Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, Dundee Capital Markets

Credit Health and Sensitivity Analysis


Debt Due Coupon Maturity Amt Issued

(US$MM)

S&P Rating Current Price YTW

Barrick Gold

Senior Notes 6.95% Jan 04, 2019 750 BBB 116.43 3.46%

Senior Notes 4.40% May 30, 2021 1,329 BBB 100.02 4.40%

Senior Notes 3.85% Jan 04, 2022 1,249 BBB 94.19 4.71%

Senior Notes 4.10% Jan 05, 2023 1,498 BBB 93.11 5.04%

Senior Notes 5.25% Jan 04, 2042 750 BBB 86.43 6.28%

Eldorado Gold

Senior Notes 6.13% Dec 15, 2020 600 BB 96.63 6.74%

Goldcorp

Senior Notes 3.70% Mar 15, 2023 1,000 BBB+ 91.62 4.85%

Senior Notes 2.00% Jan 08, 2014 863 BBB+ 100.38 1.27%

Senior Notes 2.13% Mar 15, 2018 500 BBB+ 98.63 2.48%

IAMGOLD

Senior Notes 6.75% Jan 10, 2020 650 BB- 87.00 9.41%

Kinross Gold

Senior Notes 3.63% Jan 09, 2016 249 BBB- 103.75 2.14%



New Gold

Senior Notes 6.25% Nov 15, 2022 500 BB- 97.15 6.68%

Senior Notes 7.00% Apr 15, 2020 300 BB- 103.13 6.15%

Yamana Gold

Senior Notes 6.97% Dec 21, 2019 182 BBB- 116.81 3.77%

Senior Notes 4.91% Mar 23, 2024 140 BBB- 98.44 5.11%

Senior Notes 4.76% Mar 23, 2022 200 BBB- 101.41 4.55%

Current

Cash

Current

Debt

Current

Net Debt

2014E Net Debt / EBITDA (CY) (2) (3) 2015E Net Debt / EBITDA (CY) (2) (3)

Spot $1150 $1300 $1450 $1600 Spot $1150 $1300 $1450 $1600

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM CN US $142 $950 $808 30% 1.5x 2.0x 1.4x 1.0x 0.8x 29% 1.4x 1.9x 1.3x 1.0x 0.8x

Barrick Gold Corp. ABX CN US $2,823 $13,795 $10,972 17% 2.1x 2.5x 2.0x 1.7x 1.4x 16% 1.9x 2.2x 1.8x 1.5x 1.3x

Eldorado Gold Corp. ELD CN US $628 $616 -$12 23% - - - - - 24% - - - - -

Goldcorp Inc. G CN US $972 $2,946 $1,974 27% 1.6x 2.1x 1.5x 1.1x 0.9x 24% 1.2x 1.5x 1.1x 0.9x 0.7x

IAMGOLD Corp. IMG CN US $527 $650 $123 24% 0.3x 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x 0.2x 26% 0.3x 0.4x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x

Kinross Gold Corp. K CN US $932 $2,140 $1,208 29% 1.1x 1.5x 1.0x 0.8x 0.6x 29% 1.1x 1.5x 1.0x 0.8x 0.6x

New Gold Inc. NGD CN US $423 $800 $377 15% 1.1x 1.2x 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 15% 1.0x 1.2x 1.0x 0.8x 0.7x

Osisko Mining Corp OSK CN CAD $122 $329 $207 28% 0.8x 1.0x 0.7x 0.5x 0.4x 26% 0.7x 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x

Randgold Resources Ltd. GOLD US US $17 $0 -$17 22% - - - - - 22% - - - - -

Yamana Gold Inc. YRI CN US $232 $1,095 $863 19% 1.0x 1.2x 1.0x 0.8x 0.7x 19% 0.9x 1.1x 0.9x 0.7x 0.6x

AVERAGE 23% 1.5x 1.8x 1.3x 1.1x 0.9x 23% 1.3x 1.5x 1.2x 1.0x 0.8x

(1) Averages calculated on an equal weighted basis

(2) Averages calculated on an enterprise value weighted basis

(3) Current debt value assumed. Debt not adjusted for future changes in capital structure

Company Ticker Reporting

Currency

2014E

EBITDA (CY)

Sens +10%

Change in

spot (1)

2015E

EBITDA (CY)

Sens +10%

Change in

spot (1)



Upcoming Catalysts

Below we outline a list of key near term catalysts by company over the next 12 months. A comprehensive list of catalysts by company over the next 24 months follows. Generally Barrick and Kinross have limited catalysts in 2014, while Goldcorp has meaningful catalysts expected this year.

Senior Producers:

Barrick Gold - No catalysts are expected. Goldcorp - The company is expected to report a number of key development catalysts,

including Cerro Negro (9% of NAV; Argentina) initial production in mid-2014, and first production in 4Q14 at both Eléonore (9% of NAV; Ontario) and Cochenour (3% of NAV; Quebec). Goldcorp may also report economic upside from an expansion at Los Filos in 1H14 (6% of NAV; Mexico) and additional concentrate production studies at Penasquito in 4Q14 (26% of NAV; Mexico). Results from the company's proposed acquisition of Osisko are expected in Februrary, which in our view have the potential to materially change the company's corporate outlook.

Kinross - The company is expected to deliver feasibility results for a Tasiast expansion (17% of NAV; Mauritania) in 1H14, but is not expected to make a decision to proceed with development until 2015.

List of Catalysts by Company

Agnico-Eagle

Agnico-Eagle4Q13 Goldex restart commercial production (M & E Zones)

Agnico-Eagle Completion of LaRonde ventilation and cooling system improvements

Agnico-Eagle1Q14 La India commercial production

Agnico-EagleFeb 2014 3-year operating and capital cost guidance

Agnico-Eagle1H14 Technical study results on sattelite zones at Goldex

Agnico-Eagle4Q14 Meliadine updated feasibility study

Agnico-Eagle2014 La India sulphide metallurgical testwork

Agnico-Eagle Tarachi metallurgical testwork

Agnico-Eagle Potential Kittila large scale expansion study results

Agnico-Eagle2H15 Kittila small scale expansion completion (to 3,750 tpd)

Barrick

Barrick 4Q13 Lagunas Norte carbon-in-column plant completion

Barrick 1H14 Pueblo Vijeo ramp-up to full capcity

Barrick 4Q14 Goldstrike thiosulphate project completion

BarrickMid-2015 Goldrush PFS

Eldorado Gold

Eldorado Gold1H14 Olympias commercial production

Eldorado Gold Certej updated pre-feasibility study

Eldorado GoldAug 2014 Turkey presidential elections

Eldorado Gold2H14 Certej permitting appeals and final land acquisition

Eldorado GoldLate 2014 Approval of Perama Hill EIS and construction decision

Eldorado Gold2014 Kisladag expansion supplementary EIA approval

Eldorado Gold Tocantinzinho full feasibility update

Eldorado Gold Eastern Dragon permitting




Goldcorp

Goldcorp 4Q13 Hollinger open pit project permitting approval at Porcupine

Goldcorp 1H14 Los Filos crushing/agglomeration expansion results

Goldcorp Pueblo Viejo ramp-up to full capacity

GoldcorpMid-2014 Penasquito thickened tailings feasibility study completion

Goldcorp First production at Cerro Negro

Goldcorp 4Q14 Penasquito concentrate studies (copper & pyrtie)

Goldcorp Agua Rica feasibility study completion

Goldcorp First production at Eleonore

Goldcorp First production at Cochenour

GoldcorpMid-2015 Camino Rojo pre-feasibility study

IAMGOLD

IAMGOLDEnd 2013 Essakane expansion completion

IAMGOLD2Q14 IAMGOLD Analyst day

IAMGOLD1H14 Niobec block caving feasibility study

IAMGOLD Rosebel expansion feasibility results

IAMGOLD Cote Gold preliminary feasibility study

IAMGOLD3Q14 Westwood commercial production

IAMGOLD2H14 Niobec expansion permitting

IAMGOLDEnd 2014 Cote Gold permitting

IAMGOLDMid 2015 Cote Gold feasibility study and construction decision

IAMGOLD 2017 Cote Gold initial production

Kinross

Kinross 1Q14 Corporate exploration update (Targeted at Tasiast, La Coipa, Kupol)

Kinross 1H14 Tasiast mill expansion feasibility study completion

KinrossOct 2014 Brazil presidential elections

Kinross 2014 Potential scoping economics for La Coipa's Phase 7 / Pompeya development

Kinross 2015 Tasiast mill expansion decision

New Gold

New Gold 1Q14 Rainy River updated feasibility study

New Gold New Afton throughput increase to 14,000 tpd evaluation results

New GoldFeb 6 Analyst and investor day

New Gold 2H14 Rainy River EIA Approval and construction decision

New Gold 2014 El Morro resolution of permit suspension

New GoldEarly 2015 Blackwater EIA approval

Randgold Resources

Randgold Resources4Q13 Tongon supplementary crusher installation

Randgold Resources1Q14 Kibali sulphide circuit commissioning

Randgold Resources2014 Massawa metallurgical testwork and update

Randgold Resources Cote d'Ivoire windfall tax resolution

Randgold Resources DRC legislative elections (tentative)

Randgold Resources Gounkoto Underground feasibility study

Randgold ResourcesEnd 2014 Massawa feasibility study

Randgold Resources4Q15 Cote d'Ivoire presidential elections (October)

Yamana

Yamana 4Q13 Gualcamayo QDD Lower West development completion

Yamana 1H14 Pilar commercial production

Yamana C1 Santa Luz commercial production

YamanaOct 2014 Brazil presidential elections

Yamana 2H14 Ernesto/Pau-a-Pique commercial production

Yamana 2014 Corpo Sul feasibility study, potential as standalone orebody

Yamana Cerro Moro feasibility results



Published Estimates Relative to Consensus

Below we provide a comparison of Dundee estimates at our published price deck relative to consensus expectations. In general, our estimates are more conservative than consensus estimates, potentially reflecting future downward consensus revisions as gold price forecasts are revised lower.

Key Takeaways:

Our estimates are below consensus for all three senior producers in 2014E, in particular for Goldcorp. Our estimates are above consensus for Barrick and Kinross in 2015, but below consensus for Goldcorp.

We believe the variance for Goldcorp is largely attributed to our accounting of Goldcorp's ramp-up operations in 2014 and 1H15. Our forecasts incorporate limited commercial production from Cerro Negro in 2014, and a ramp-up to commercial production for Eleonore and Cochenour in 2015.

Dundee Estimates vs. Consensus

Source: Dundee Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet

Dundee Rating & Consensus Rating Distribution

Source: Dundee Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet

Dundee Cons. Var. Dundee Cons. Var. Dundee Cons. Var.

EPS

2013E US$ 2.44 2.56 -5% 0.85 0.93 -8% 0.33 0.33 -2%

2014E US$ 1.36 1.81 -25% 0.37 0.76 -51% 0.19 0.20 -2%

2015E US$ 1.89 1.73 9% 0.82 1.17 -30% 0.32 0.22 43%

CFPS

2013E US$ 4.27 4.08 5% 1.78 2.17 -18% 0.77 0.96 -20%

2014E US$ 3.03 3.31 -9% 1.31 1.92 -32% 0.77 0.89 -14%

2015E US$ 3.92 3.33 18% 2.01 2.70 -25% 0.90 0.89 0%

Production

2013E MMoz 7.08 7.13 -1% 2.65 2.65 0% 2.52 2.55 -1%

2014E MMoz 6.53 6.92 -6% 3.06 3.03 1% 2.53 2.62 -4%

2015E MMoz 6.64 - - 3.61 - - 2.54 - -

Note: Goldcorp 2013 production was pre-released.

Barrick Goldcorp Kinross

Company Dundee Consensus Ratings Distribution

Rating Target Buy Neutral Sell

Barrick Gold Corp. Neutral $22.00 9 19 3

Goldcorp Inc. Neutral $25.50 17 6 1

Kinross Gold Corp. Buy $6.50 11 13 2



COMPARABLE TABLES

Agnico-

Eagle

Barrick

Gold

Eldorado

Gold Goldcorp IAMGOLD Kinross New Gold Osisko

Randgold

Resources

Yamana

Gold

Group

Average

Ticker AEM CN ABX CN ELD CN G CN IMG CN K CN NGD CN OSK CN GOLD US YRI CN -

Rating (1) N N N N N B B B B S -

Share Price (17-Jan-14) C$32.21 C$20.61 C$7.32 C$25.43 C$4.45 C$5.22 C$6.38 C$6.47 US$65.32 C$10.54 -

Basic Shares O/S (MM) 174 1,165 715 812 377 1,143 503 438 92 753 -

Market Cap (US$MM) (2) $5,103 $21,889 $4,776 $18,819 $1,528 $5,442 $2,928 $2,583 $6,023 $7,236 $7,633

Cash ($MM) (2) $142 $2,823 $628 $972 $527 $932 $423 $122 $17 $232 $682

Debt ($MM) (2) $950 $13,795 $616 $2,946 $650 $2,140 $800 $329 $0 $1,095 $2,332

Enterprise Value (US$MM) (2) $5,911 $32,861 $4,764 $20,792 $1,651 $6,650 $3,305 $2,771 $6,006 $8,099 $9,281

Attributable Reserves (MMoz) (2) 18.7 140.2 28.2 67.1 11.3 59.6 7.7 10.1 16.4 24.2 38.4

Attributable M&I+I (MMoz) (2) (3) 20.3 118.6 21.6 51.8 17.4 34.7 18.0 13.8 10.8 17.2 32.4

Total Resources (MMoz) (2) 39.0 258.8 49.8 118.9 28.7 94.3 25.8 23.9 27.2 41.5 70.8

P/NAV at Spot (4) (5) (6) 2.33x 3.06x 1.30x 2.25x 1.13x 1.77x 2.00x 1.36x 1.55x 3.02x 2.15x

% NAV in Development (6) (7) 19% 20% 52% 19% 46% 1% 11% 0% 32% 21% 21%

Total Acquisition Cost (US$/oz) (8) $1,342 $1,261 $1,181 $1,337 $1,234 $1,209 $1,412 $1,088 $1,214 $1,465 $1,272

2014E Dividend Yield 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 2.7%

Equity Gold Production (koz) (2)

2012A 1,044 7,421 621 2,396 830 2,466 412 388 752 1,020 1,735

2013E 1,085 7,080 684 2,653 880 2,517 396 475 848 1,094 1,771

2014E 1,234 6,532 704 3,058 857 2,530 438 546 1,114 1,275 1,829

2015E 1,318 6,641 715 3,606 846 2,543 464 559 1,184 1,374 1,925

TCC (Co-product) (US$/oz) (9)

2012A 756 583 554 639 714 706 676 908 741 541 $638

2013E 755 569 550 710 801 733 739 742 739 556 $651

2014E 736 549 582 701 808 722 731 722 669 568 $642

2015E 731 519 613 696 824 708 745 683 656 608 $633

Fully Loaded Costs (By-product) (US$/oz) (10)

2012A 1,234 1,230 1,371 924 1,651 1,761 981 1,362 1,214 1,279 $1,288

2013E 1,219 1,217 1,244 1,086 1,649 1,494 1,263 1,189 1,144 1,219 $1,256

2014E 1,174 1,093 1,099 1,032 1,367 1,181 1,039 1,119 951 1,090 $1,104

2015E 1,143 1,046 1,182 952 1,302 1,179 853 1,133 918 1,061 $1,060

% Non Au-Ag Revenues

2012A 6% 12% 7% 12% 12% 0% 17% 0% 0% 25% 9%

2013E 4% 15% 8% 11% 14% 0% 32% 0% 0% 23% 11%

2014E 3% 19% 10% 12% 16% 0% 34% 0% 0% 24% 12%

2015E 3% 21% 9% 13% 15% 0% 34% 0% 0% 23% 12%

Equity Production Growth (11)

2012A-2013E 4% -5% 10% 11% 6% 2% -4% 22% 13% 7% 7%

2012A-2014E 18% -12% 13% 28% 3% 3% 6% 41% 48% 25% 17%

2012A-2015E 26% -11% 15% 50% 2% 3% 13% 44% 57% 35% 23%

P/CF at Spot (6)

2013E 10.5x 4.4x 12.5x 13.0x 4.6x 6.1x 18.9x 11.2x 11.9x 10.1x 7.5x

2014E 11.4x 6.2x 17.5x 17.5x 5.9x 6.1x 10.3x 12.4x 11.6x 10.8x 9.3x

2015E 10.8x 5.4x 18.2x 13.1x 5.5x 6.1x 9.4x 12.2x 9.8x 9.7x 8.2x

P/E at Spot (6)

2013E 42.9x 7.7x 25.4x 27.2x 13.7x 14.6x 46.0x 24.3x 24.6x 23.3x 15.1x

2014E 86.1x 13.6x 40.7x 61.3x 35.2x 23.7x 37.3x 24.7x 27.5x 33.8x 25.6x

2015E 93.4x 12.0x 53.5x 40.9x 31.7x 22.2x 29.5x 23.9x 28.3x 39.0x 22.9x

FCF Yield at Spot (12) (13)

2013E -2% -2.1% -1.2% -3.3% -18.1% -6.7% -4.3% 1.1% -2.4% -2.7% -3.0%

2014E 1% 3.1% -5.0% -5.3% -6.2% 1.3% 0.6% 3.4% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1%

2015E 2% 3.0% -8.8% 2.6% 1.7% 2.9% -3.8% 3.8% 5.3% 2.4% 2.1%

EV/EBITDA at Spot (12)

2013E 11.0x 5.7x 9.2x 15.2x 3.9x 4.8x 11.4x 11.7x 12.4x 9.5x 7.9x

2014E 11.3x 6.4x 12.1x 17.2x 4.7x 6.1x 9.4x 10.2x 12.1x 9.8x 8.7x

2015E 10.4x 5.7x 12.6x 12.4x 4.5x 6.1x 9.0x 8.9x 11.9x 8.8x 7.8x

(1) B - Buy, N - Neutral, S - Sell, NR - Not Rated, NC - Not Covered, R - Restricted. Refer to disclosures for more information.

(2) Average calculated on an equal weighted basis.

(3) M&I resources exclusive of reserves.

(4) Discount rate varies by company. Generally 5% for gold assets, higher for base metal assets or high technical/political risk.

(5) NAVPS at spot calculated at spot gold prices, spot silver prices, and base metal forward curves. P/NAV adjusted at spot FX rates.

(6) Average weighted according to market capitalization.

(7) Percent of NAV attributed to mining assets that are not currently in production.

(9) Average weighted according to ounces of production. Calculated at price deck gold forecasts: 2013=$1,413/oz, 2014=$1,248/oz, 2015=$1,327/oz, long-term $1,325/oz.

(11) Growth calculated as final year divided by initial year, on an absolute basis.

(12) Average weighted according to enterprise value.

(13) Adjusted free cash flow = operating cash flow before working capital changes, less capital spending and preferred dividends.

(10) Average weighted according to ounces of production. Fully Loaded costs = total cash costs + capex at operating assets + exploration + corporate G&A (less share based comp) + interest + cash taxes.

(8) Average weighted according to ounces of production. Total Acquisition Cost = Breakeven cost of acquisition per oz = (EV + LOM capital spending - Other Assets)/(LOM production) + LOM co-product total cash costs.


Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX-T: C$20.61), (ABX-N: US$18.21) January 21, 2014

NEUTRAL, High Risk

Dundee target: C$22.00



Bearing The Weight Of Days Gone Past; Initiating with a NEUTRAL

We are initiating coverage of Barrick Gold with a NEUTRAL rating and 12-month C$22.00 price target, based on a blend of 1.3x our NAV5% at a long term gold price of $1,325/oz and 12x our 2014E-15E cash flow estimate.

A World Class Operating Asset Base, Long-Term Development Uncertainties

Barrick is the largest gold producer globally, with estimated 2013 production of 7.1 MMoz across 22 operating assets. The company boasts a core group of 5 assets accounting for 53% of our valuation, which are some of the world's most robust and long life assets. Given Barrick's asset quality and its track record of operating delivery, we believe the company deserves a premium rating. Although Barrick is the world's largest producer, development assets are also the highest contribution to our valuation of the senior producers. These projects include the highly prospective Goldrush exploration property (5% of NAV) where 14 MMoz have been discovered, but project economics are largely unknown, and the suspended Pascua Lama project (12% of NAV), where recommencement of project development remains very uncertain.

Substantial Progress Achieved, Historical Disappointments An Ongoing Drag

In conjunction with Barrick's acquisition of Equinox Minerals (Lumwana and Jabal Sayid; 4% of NAV) and severe capital inflation pressures at Pascua Lama, corporate debt has grown to $15.2B as of 3Q13. Weaker gold prices have reduced financial flexibility, resulting in a growing emphasis on debt reduction through asset divestitures, a reduction of the dividend, and a recent $3.0B equity financing. Although considerable progress has been achieved, current debt levels remain a risk to long term financial liquidity. We believe the easiest drivers for value creation and risk reduction have already been implemented, and further debt reduction will be a challenge, absent higher gold prices.

Upside to Equity Value Constrained by Near Term Debt Schedule

Barrick has limited debt maturity prior to 2021 ($1.35B due 2Q21), but we forecast that at gold prices below $1,100/oz the company would face heightened financial risks over a 3-year outlook, assuming Pascua-Lama is advanced. Despite Barrick having the highest project valuation in our coverage universe, the company’s debt load at current gold prices substantially erodes the value of our equity estimate. Furthermore, long term mine plan uncertainties remain, given Barrick's aggressive year-end 2012 $1,500/oz reserve pricing and an initiative to maximize near term cash flow, which may sacrifice longer-term production plans.

ABX: Price/Volume Chart

Source: Factset

Company Description Barrick Gold is the world's largest gold company by production, expected to produce approximately 7.0 MMoz at adjusted operating costs of $575-600/oz in 2013.

Recommendation New

Rating: NEUTRAL

Target: C$22.00

Risk: High

2013 EPS

2014 EPS

Company Data

Price (01/17/14): C$20.61

52-Week Range: C$14.22-34.72

Market Capitalization ($MM): US$21,889

Enterprise Value ($MM): US$32,861

Shares Outstanding - Basic (MM):

Shares Outstanding - Diluted (MM):

2014E Dividend Yield:

Avg Daily Volume (3 Mos) (000s):

Cash ($MM):* US$2,823

Debt ($MM):* US$13,795

Working Capital ($MM): US$2,796

Fiscal Year End Dec 31

* Adjusted for post quarter event

NAV LT Gold Price:

Price Deck:

Spot Gold:

EPS 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E

Q1 1.09 A 0.92 A 0.31 E

Q2 0.78 A 0.66 A 0.32 E

Q3 0.85 A 0.58 A 0.35 E

Q4 1.11 A 0.28 E 0.38 E

FY 3.83 A 2.44 E 1.36 E

P/E 4.9x 7.7x 13.8x

CFPS 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E

FY 6.53 A 4.27 E 3.03 E

P/CF 2.9x 4.4x 6.2x

All Figures in US$ Unless Otherwise Noted

Source: Bloomberg, Company reports, DCM

2.20x

3.06x

$1,325/oz

$1,254/oz

US$/sh

8.54

6.14

P/NAV

1,164.7

1,171.6

1.1%

7,071

2.44

1.36

Ap r-1 2 O c t-1 2 Ap r-1 3 O c t-1 3

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

5 0

0

2 0

B a r r i c k G o l d C o r p o r a t i o n (AB X -C A)

Vo lu m e (M i l l io n s ) P r ic e (C AD )

Vo lu m e B a rr ick G o ld C o rp o ra tio n





Barrick Gold Corp.: Forecasts at Dundee Price DeckRating NEUTRAL Basic Shares (MM) 1164.7 Dundee Capital Markets

Risk High Diluted Shares (ITM / FD) (MM) 1,164.7 / 1,171.6 Josh Wolfson, CFA

Target Price C$22.00 Basic Mkt Cap (US$MM) $21,889 416-350-5045

Share Price C$20.61 Enterprise Value (US$MM) $32,861 [email protected]

OPERATING STATISTICS BALANCE SHEET

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Equity Gold Production (koz) 7,421 7,080 6,532 6,641 6,236 Assets

North America 3,429 3,588 3,610 3,802 3,588 Cash 2,093.0 2,515.9 3,213.2 4,381.9 4,235.3

South America 1,631 1,282 1,161 1,211 1,155 Other Current Assets 3,770.0 3,698.0 3,698.0 3,698.0 3,698.0

Australia Pacific 1,840 1,740 1,281 1,144 1,003 Current Assets 5,863.0 6,213.9 6,911.2 8,079.9 7,933.3

Africa 463 471 480 484 490 Non-current Assets 41,419.0 34,094.1 34,987.8 36,195.3 38,069.8

Other 58 (1) - - - Total Assets 47,282.0 40,308.0 41,899.1 44,275.2 46,003.1

Total Cash Costs (Co-Prod) (US$/oz) 583 569 549 519 550 Liabilities

North America 483 502 541 497 526 Current Liabilities 4,415.0 2,534.0 2,594.3 3,027.3 2,534.0

South America 447 454 436 398 424 Long Term Debt 12,095.0 12,691.2 12,576.9 12,029.7 11,975.7

Australia Pacific 805 732 604 634 688 Other non-current Liabilities 8,927.0 8,303.0 8,553.8 9,028.3 9,407.8

Africa 947 830 730 717 745 Total Liabilities 25,437.0 23,528.3 23,725.1 24,085.2 23,917.5

Total Cash Costs (By-Prod) (US$/oz) 588 570 541 508 540 Total Shareholder Equity 21,845.0 16,779.7 18,174.0 20,190.0 22,085.6

North America 496 499 528 479 507

South America 438 456 436 398 424 INCOME STATEMENT

Australia Pacific 805 732 604 634 688 US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Africa 944 838 730 717 745 Total Revenue 14,547.0 12,363.7 11,007.4 12,222.8 11,951.0

Equity Copper Production (MMlbs) 468 532 566 658 722 % Gold 88% 85% 81% 79% 76%

C1 Copper Costs (US$/lb) 2.08 1.88 1.66 1.66 1.61 % Silver 0% 0% 1% 1% 1%

% Copper 12% 15% 19% 21% 23%

GOLD RESERVES AND RESOURCES % Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Category 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Operating Costs 5,932.0 5,406.5 4,987.3 4,977.4 5,032.3

Proven and Probable G&A 195.0 179.0 176.0 188.1 178.1

Tonnes (MM) 1,915 2,704 2,894 3,227 3,357 Exploration 429.0 207.0 180.0 217.0 205.6

Grade (g/t) 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 Depreciation 1,722.0 1,723.1 1,645.5 1,845.0 1,859.5

Oz (MM) 124.6 138.5 139.8 139.8 139.9 Other 633.0 843.0 530.0 400.0 400.0

Assumed reserve additions (MMoz) 17.9 EBITDA 7,358.0 5,728.1 5,134.1 6,440.4 6,135.0

LOM Production (Mmoz) 109.9 EBIT 5,636.0 4,005.1 3,488.6 4,595.4 4,275.5

Measured, Indicated, & Inferred (excl.) Net Interest Expense 166.0 510.7 466.3 441.8 407.9

Oz (MM) 48.1 99.8 93.4 113.5 120.6 Unusual/Other Items (6,702.0) (10,271.4) (932.6) (883.5) (815.7)

Reserve and Resource Statistics EBT (900.0) (5,755.6) 3,022.3 4,153.6 3,867.6

Reserves/sh (x1,000) 142.9 153.4 141.5 139.9 139.9 Taxes (236.0) 1,185.4 1,148.5 1,578.4 1,392.3

Reserves & resources/sh (x1,000) 198.0 263.9 236.1 253.5 260.4 Minority Interest (12.0) (222.9) 290.6 373.4 391.2

Current Per Ounce Statistics Other (13.0) (514.0) - - -

Adj. EV / LOM Prod (US$/oz) 627 EV/Resource (US$/oz) 127 Net Income (Reported) (665.0) (7,232.1) 1,583.2 2,201.8 2,084.0

Total Acquisition Cost (US$/oz) 1261 EV/Reserve (US$/oz) 234 Net Income (Adjusted) 3,827.0 2,466.9 1,583.2 2,201.8 2,084.0

NET ASSET VALUE (US$) EPS (Reported) ($/sh) (0.66) (7.25) 1.36 1.89 1.79

Asset NAV /Share % NAV % Resrv EPS (Adjusted) ($/sh) 3.83 2.44 1.36 1.89 1.79

North America 12,092 10.38 50% 59% Average shares (MM) 1,000.5 1,021.5 1,164.7 1,164.7 1,164.7

South America 7,343 6.30 31% 25%

Australia/Pacific 1,464 1.26 6% 7% CASH FLOW STATEMENT

African Barrick 1,060 0.91 4% 9% US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Copper 3,178 2.73 13% 0% Net Income (Reported) (665.0) (7,232.1) 1,583.2 2,201.8 2,084.0

Gold Exploration Properties 273 0.23 1% 0% Depreciation 1,722.0 1,723.1 1,645.5 1,845.0 1,859.5

Other -1,444 -1.24 -6% 0% Other 5,482.0 9,842.0 294.7 521.5 424.1

Total Mining and Investment Assets 23,966 20.58 100% 100% Operating Cash Flow 6,539.0 4,333.0 3,523.4 4,568.3 4,367.6

Balance Sheet Items & Expenditures -14,023 -12.04 Operating Cash Flow ($/sh) 6.5 4.3 3.0 3.9 3.8

Total 9,942 8.54 Working Capital Changes (1,100.0) (382.0) - - -

Cash from Operations 5,439.0 3,951.0 3,523.4 4,568.3 4,367.6

NAV BY ASSET GOLD RESERVES BY ASSET Capital Expenditure (6,369.0) (5,035.2) (2,539.2) (3,052.4) (3,734.0)

Net Investments (152.0) 238.0 - - -

Investing Cash Flow (6,521.0) (4,797.2) (2,539.2) (3,052.4) (3,734.0)

Common Share Dividends 749.9 581.8 232.9 232.9 232.9

Debt Additions 2,000.0 5,234.0 - - -

Debt Repayments (1,462.0) (6,330.8) (54.0) (114.3) (547.3)

Equity Financing 18.0 2,900.0 - - -

Other Net Financing (133.0) (518.1) (232.9) (232.9) (232.9)

Financing Cash Flow 423.0 1,285.1 (286.9) (347.2) (780.2)

Foreign Exchange 7.0 (12.0) - - -

Change In Cash (652.0) 418.9 697.3 1,168.7 (146.6)

Cash Balance 2,093.0 2,515.9 3,213.2 4,381.9 4,235.3

Free Cash Flow 708.0 (1,799.0) 930.3 1,401.6 86.4

Adj. Free Cash Flow (1) (930.0) (1,084.2) 984.3 1,515.9 633.6

VALUATION DATA

GOLD PRODUCTION PROFILE 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

P/E 4.9x 7.7x 13.8x 9.9x 10.5x

P/CF 2.9x 4.4x 6.2x 4.8x 5.0x

EV/EBITDA 4.5x 5.7x 6.4x 5.1x 5.4x

Adj. FCF Yield (1) 0.5% (2.1%) 3.0% 4.6% 1.9%

INPUT PRICES

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Key Commodities

Gold (US$/oz) 1,668 1,413 1,248 1,327 1,330

Silver (US$/oz) 31.13 23.91 20.80 22.12 22.17

Copper (US$/lb) 3.61 3.33 3.30 3.50 3.50

Zinc (US$/lb) 0.88 0.87 0.90 1.00 1.00

Oil (US$/bbl) 94 98 100 103 104

Key Currencies

CAD/USD 1.00 0.97 0.91 0.89 0.93

AUD/USD 1.04 0.97 0.86 0.85 0.90

USD/CLP 486 495 500 510 520

USD/ARS 4.54 5.44 5.75 6.11 6.11

(1) Adj FCF = Operating Cash Flow - Capex

Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

59%25%

7%

9%0%0%0%

North America

South America

Australia/Pacific

African Barrick

Copper

Gold Exploration Properties

Other

50%

31%

6%4%

13%1%-6%

North America

South America

Australia/Pacific

African Barrick

Copper


Other

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

To

tal C

as

h C

os

ts (

US

$/o

z)

Go

ld P

rod

uc

tio

n (

ko

z)

North America South America Australia Pacific Africa Total Cash Costs (Co-product)



Barrick Gold Corp.: Forecasts at Spot GoldRating NEUTRAL Basic Shares (MM) 1164.7 Dundee Capital Markets






Equity Gold Production (koz) 7,421 7,080 6,532 6,641 6,236 Assets

North America 3,429 3,588 3,610 3,802 3,588 Cash 2,093.0 2,515.9 3,241.4 3,892.9 3,226.3

South America 1,631 1,282 1,161 1,211 1,155 Other Current Assets 3,770.0 3,698.0 3,698.0 3,698.0 3,698.0

Australia Pacific 1,840 1,740 1,281 1,144 1,003 Current Assets 5,863.0 6,213.9 6,939.4 7,590.9 6,924.3

Africa 463 471 480 484 490 Non-current Assets 41,419.0 34,094.1 34,987.8 36,195.3 38,069.8

Other 58 (1) - - - Total Assets 47,282.0 40,308.0 41,927.2 43,786.1 44,994.0

Total Cash Costs (Co-Prod) (US$/oz) 583 569 549 518 549 Liabilities

North America 483 502 542 495 524 Current Liabilities 4,415.0 2,534.0 2,594.3 3,027.3 2,534.0

South America 447 454 437 397 423 Long Term Debt 12,095.0 12,691.2 12,576.9 12,029.7 11,975.7

Australia Pacific 805 732 604 633 687 Other non-current Liabilities 8,927.0 8,303.0 8,560.4 8,893.9 9,157.1

Africa 947 830 730 722 751 Total Liabilities 25,437.0 23,528.3 23,731.6 23,950.9 23,666.8

Total Cash Costs (By-Prod) (US$/oz) 588 570 542 508 540 Total Shareholder Equity 21,845.0 16,779.7 18,195.6 19,835.2 21,327.3

North America 496 499 529 479 508

South America 438 456 437 397 423 INCOME STATEMENT

Australia Pacific 805 732 604 633 687 US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Africa 944 838 730 722 751 Total Revenue 14,547.0 12,363.7 11,047.6 11,526.9 11,235.8

Equity Copper Production (MMlbs) 468 532 566 658 722 % Gold 88% 85% 81% 79% 76%

C1 Copper Costs (US$/lb) 2.08 1.88 1.66 1.66 1.60 % Silver 0% 0% 1% 1% 1%

% Copper 12% 15% 19% 21% 23%

GOLD RESERVES AND RESOURCES % Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Category 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Operating Costs 5,932.0 5,406.5 4,989.2 4,964.5 5,018.0

Proven and Probable G&A 195.0 179.0 176.0 188.1 178.1

Tonnes (MM) 1,915 2,704 2,894 3,227 3,357 Exploration 429.0 207.0 180.0 217.0 205.6

Grade (g/t) 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 Depreciation 1,722.0 1,723.1 1,645.5 1,845.0 1,859.5

Oz (MM) 124.6 138.5 139.8 139.8 139.9 Other 633.0 843.0 530.0 400.0 400.0

Assumed reserve additions (MMoz) 17.9 EBITDA 7,358.0 5,728.1 5,172.3 5,757.3 5,434.0

LOM Production (Mmoz) 109.9 EBIT 5,636.0 4,005.1 3,526.9 3,912.3 3,574.5

Measured, Indicated, & Inferred (excl.) Net Interest Expense 166.0 510.7 465.9 443.3 418.1

Oz (MM) 48.1 99.8 93.4 113.5 120.6 Unusual/Other Items (6,702.0) (10,271.4) (931.9) (886.7) (836.2)

Reserve and Resource Statistics EBT (900.0) (5,755.6) 3,060.9 3,468.9 3,156.5

Reserves/sh (x1,000) 142.9 153.4 141.5 139.9 139.9 Taxes (236.0) 1,185.4 1,163.2 1,318.2 1,136.3

Reserves & resources/sh (x1,000) 198.0 263.9 236.1 253.5 260.4 Minority Interest (12.0) (222.9) 293.0 325.1 339.7

Current Per Ounce Statistics Other (13.0) (514.0) - - -

Adj. EV / LOM Prod (US$/oz) 620 EV/Resource (US$/oz) 127 Net Income (Reported) (665.0) (7,232.1) 1,604.8 1,825.6 1,680.4

Total Acquisition Cost (US$/oz) 1252 EV/Reserve (US$/oz) 234 Net Income (Adjusted) 3,827.0 2,466.9 1,604.8 1,825.6 1,680.4

NET ASSET VALUE (US$) EPS (Reported) ($/sh) (0.66) (7.25) 1.38 1.57 1.44

Asset NAV /Share % NAV % Resrv EPS (Adjusted) ($/sh) 3.83 2.44 1.38 1.57 1.44

North America 10,271 8.82 48% 59% Average shares (MM) 1,000.5 1,021.5 1,164.7 1,164.7 1,164.7

South America 6,215 5.34 29% 25%

Australia/Pacific 1,186 1.02 6% 7% CASH FLOW STATEMENT

African Barrick 728 0.62 3% 9% US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Copper 3,843 3.30 18% 0% Net Income (Reported) (665.0) (7,232.1) 1,604.8 1,825.6 1,680.4

Gold Exploration Properties 273 0.23 1% 0% Depreciation 1,722.0 1,723.1 1,645.5 1,845.0 1,859.5

Other -1,295 -1.11 -6% 0% Other 5,482.0 9,842.0 301.3 380.6 307.7

Total Mining and Investment Assets 21,220 18.22 100% 100% Operating Cash Flow 6,539.0 4,333.0 3,551.6 4,051.2 3,847.6

Balance Sheet Items & Expenditures -14,068 -12.08 Operating Cash Flow ($/sh) 6.5 4.3 3.0 3.5 3.3

Total 7,151 6.14 Working Capital Changes (1,100.0) (382.0) - - -


NAV BY ASSET GOLD RESERVES BY ASSET Capital Expenditure (6,369.0) (5,035.2) (2,539.2) (3,052.4) (3,734.0)


Investing Cash Flow (6,521.0) (4,797.2) (2,539.2) (3,052.4) (3,734.0)


Debt Additions 2,000.0 5,234.0 - - -

Debt Repayments (1,462.0) (6,330.8) (54.0) (114.3) (547.3)

Equity Financing 18.0 2,900.0 - - -


Financing Cash Flow 423.0 1,285.1 (286.9) (347.2) (780.2)


Change In Cash (652.0) 418.9 725.5 651.5 (666.6)

Cash Balance 2,093.0 2,515.9 3,241.4 3,892.9 3,226.3

Free Cash Flow 708.0 (1,799.0) 958.4 884.4 (433.7)

Adj. Free Cash Flow (1) (930.0) (1,084.2) 1,012.4 998.7 113.6

VALUATION DATA


P/E 4.9x 7.7x 13.6x 12.0x 13.0x

P/CF 2.9x 4.4x 6.2x 5.4x 5.7x

EV/EBITDA 4.5x 5.7x 6.4x 5.7x 6.0x

Adj. FCF Yield (1) 0.5% (2.1%) 3.1% 3.0% 0.3%

INPUT PRICES

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Key Commodities

Gold (US$/oz) 1,668 1,413 1,254 1,254 1,254

Silver (US$/oz) 31.13 23.91 20.29 20.29 20.29

Copper (US$/lb) 3.61 3.33 3.31 3.29 3.27

Zinc (US$/lb) 0.88 0.87 0.94 0.95 0.95

Oil (US$/bbl) 94 98 100 103 104

Key Currencies

CAD/USD 1.00 0.97 0.91 0.89 0.93

AUD/USD 1.04 0.97 0.86 0.85 0.90

USD/CLP 486 495 500 510 520

USD/ARS 4.54 5.44 5.75 6.11 6.11



59%25%

7%

9%0%0%0%

North America

South America

Australia/Pacific

African Barrick

Copper


Other

48%

29%

6%3%

18%

1%-6%

North America

South America

Australia/Pacific

African Barrick

Copper


Other

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

To

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US

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Go

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North America South America Australia Pacific Africa Total Cash Costs (Co-product)



Company Overview

Barrick Gold is the world's largest gold company by production, with operations on five continents. The company has interests in 29 assets (22 operating mines, 5 development/exploration projects), producing gold, silver, and copper, segmented into four regional business units (North America, South America, Australia Pacific, Africa) its copper unit (Zaldivar, Lumwana, and Jabal Sayid mines), and its Capital Projects section. Reserves as at December 31, 2012 total 140.2 MMoz at 1.30 g/t. 2013 guidance is for ~7.0 MMoz at adjusted operating costs of $575-600/oz.

The company evolved from a private oil and gas company in 1983 when founder Peter Munk decided to focus on gold. Barrick began trading on the TSX in May 1983. Barrick's initial operation was its Renabie gold mine near Wawa, Ontario, and it subsequently expanded into the U.S. in 1984 with the acquisition of Camflo Mines. Through its acquisition of Camflo, Barrick acquired its stake in its flagship operation, Goldstrike. The company entered South America in 1995 with its $1.6B acquisition of Lac Minerals. In 1999, Barrick expanded into Africa, with its purchase of Sutton Resources and its properties in Tanzania. Barrick ventured into its Australia/Pacific sector with the $2.3B merger of Barrick and Homestake Mining in 2001. In addition to its acquisitions, Barrick discovered and developed the Lagunas Norte deposit in Peru in 2002, which at the time was the largest greenfield discovery in the industry in over a decade. In 2006, Barrick acquired Placer Dome for $9.2B, adding 12 mines to its profile, and catapulting it into the position of the largest gold producer in the world. In 2011, Barrick diversified into the copper space, purchasing Equinox Minerals for US$7.7B. Barrick's most recent growth initiative was the successful delivery of Pueblo Viejo mine, which achieved commercial production in January 2013.

In conjunction with Barrick's acquisition of Equinox in 2011, the company issued $4.0B in debt, benefitting from attractive low interest rates. As commodity prices deteriorated thereafter, the company's aggressive capital spending and higher cost operations began to stress Barrick's balance sheet. In 2013, Barrick's focus shifted from project expansions to taking measurable steps to improve cash flow generation. As a result, the company halted its key development project, Pascua-Lama, initiate closure activities at Pierina, announced the divestiture of four assets and Barrick Energy, and decreased its annual dividend to $0.20/sh (from $0.80/sh). Efforts continue in the sale of additional high cost operations. In November 2013, the company completed a $3.0B equity financing and paid down $2.5B in debt to reduce financial leverage.

Amid increasingly vocal shareholders seeking a more independent board, Peter Munk will step down as Chairman of Barrick at its next AGM in April 2014 to be replaced by John Thornton, who was named Co-Chairman in 2012. In addition, two directors will not stand for re-election, and another two directors resigned in December. Four new independent candidates have been nominated for election. Following the completion of these changes at the company's 2014 AGM, Barrick's Board will be >2/3 independent, with 10 independent directions and four non-dependent directors.

Shares of Barrick are listed on the TSX exchange and NYSE under the ticker ABX. Basic shares outstanding total 1.165B, with an additional 7.5MM options outstanding. Major shareholders include Van Eck Associates (3.6%), Allianz SE (2.4%), Toronto-Dominion Bank (2.3%), Wellington Management Co. (1.8%), and RBC Global Assets Management (1.7%). Insiders hold approximately 0.3%.



Net Asset Valuation - At Spot Gold

Barrick Gold Corp.Net Asset Valuation at Spot Gold (US$)

Shares (FD, FF, ITM) (MM) 1,164.7

Market Capitalization ($MM) $24,003

Target Setting NAV NAV at Various Discount Rates

Discount 0% 5% 10%

Rate ($MM) (/Share) ($MM) (/Share) ($MM) (/Share) ($MM) (/Share)

Gold Assets

Cortez (100.0%), Nevada 5% $3,778 $3.24 $5,545 $4.76 $3,778 $3.24 $2,769 $2.38

Goldstrike (100.0%), U.S. (NV) 5% $1,318 $1.13 $1,618 $1.39 $1,318 $1.13 $1,106 $0.95

Goldrush (100.0%), U.S. (NV) 5% $989 $0.85 $2,385 $2.05 $989 $0.85 $376 $0.32

Round Mountain (50.0%), U.S. (NV) 5% $229 $0.20 $299 $0.26 $229 $0.20 $180 $0.15

Marigold (33.0%), U.S. (NV) 5% $41 $0.03 $85 $0.07 $41 $0.03 $21 $0.02

Bald Mountain (100.0%), U.S. (NV) 5% $240 $0.21 $457 $0.39 $240 $0.21 $139 $0.12

Turquoise Ridge (75.0%), U.S. (NV) 5% $343 $0.29 $711 $0.61 $343 $0.29 $180 $0.15

Golden Sunlight (100.0%), U.S. (MT) 5% $96 $0.08 $103 $0.09 $96 $0.08 $91 $0.08

Ruby Hill (100.0%), U.S. (NV) 5% $94 $0.08 $100 $0.09 $94 $0.08 $89 $0.08

Hemlo (100.0%), Canada (ON) 5% $360 $0.31 $415 $0.36 $360 $0.31 $316 $0.27

Kalgoorlie (50.0%), Australia (WA) 5% $387 $0.33 $522 $0.45 $387 $0.33 $306 $0.26

Porgera (95.0%), Papua New Guinea 5% $488 $0.42 $599 $0.51 $488 $0.42 $407 $0.35

Cowal (100.0%), Australia (NSW) 5% $698 $0.60 $904 $0.78 $698 $0.60 $563 $0.48

Lagunas Norte (100.0%), Peru 5% $1,406 $1.21 $1,785 $1.53 $1,406 $1.21 $1,144 $0.98

Veladero (100.0%), Argentina 5% $2,318 $1.99 $3,048 $2.62 $2,318 $1.99 $1,852 $1.59

Bulyanhulu (73.9%), Tanzania 5% $364 $0.31 $658 $0.56 $364 $0.31 $224 $0.19

North Mara (73.9%), Tanzania 5% $366 $0.31 $475 $0.41 $366 $0.31 $291 $0.25

Buzwagi (73.9%), Tanzania 5% ($2) $0.00 ($3) $0.00 ($2) $0.00 ($1) $0.00

Pueblo Viejo (60.0%), Dominican Republic 5% $2,396 $2.06 $4,163 $3.57 $2,396 $2.06 $1,556 $1.34

Pascua Lama (100.0%), Argentina & Chile 5% $2,491 $2.14 $8,094 $6.95 $2,491 $2.14 $52 $0.04

Gold Exploration Properties* $273 $0.23 $273 $0.23 $273 $0.23 $273 $0.23

Silver Hedge Book 5% ($1,441) -$1.24 ($2,720) -$2.34 ($1,441) -$1.24 ($831) -$0.71

Total Gold Assets $17,231 $14.80 $29,517 $25.34 $17,231 $14.80 $11,103 $9.53

Other Assets

Zaldivar (100.0%), Chile 10% $3,058 $2.63 $3,877 $3.33 $3,877 $3.33 $3,058 $2.63

Lumwana (100.0%), Zambia 10% $116 $0.10 ($87) -$0.07 ($87) -$0.07 $116 $0.10

Jabal Sayid (100.0%), Saudi Arabia 10% $668 $0.57 $902 $0.77 $902 $0.77 $668 $0.57

Other Exploration $47 $0.04 $47 $0.04 $47 $0.04 $47 $0.04

Other Hedge Book $0 $0.00

Investments $98 $0.08 $98 $0.08 $98 $0.08 $98 $0.08

Total Other Assets $3,988 $3.42 $4,837 $4.15 $4,837 $4.15 $3,988 $3.42

Balance Sheet & Expenses

Basic Working Capital $2,796 $2.40 $2,796 $2.40 $2,796 $2.40 $2,796 $2.40

Value of ITM Instruments $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00

Estimated Working Capital Additions $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00

Long-term Debt ($13,795) -$11.84 ($13,795) -$11.84 ($13,795) -$11.84 ($13,795) -$11.84

Estimated Debt Additions $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00

General & Administrative Expense 5% ($1,303) -$1.12 ($2,034) -$1.75 ($1,303) -$1.12 ($916) -$0.79

Other Expense Net of Other Revenues 5% ($1,218) -$1.05 ($1,763) -$1.51 ($1,218) -$1.05 ($941) -$0.81

Exploration Expense 5% ($548) -$0.47 ($620) -$0.53 ($548) -$0.47 ($488) -$0.42

Net Financial Assets ($14,068) -$12.08 ($15,416) -$13.24 ($14,068) -$12.08 ($13,345) -$11.46

Net Asset Value (US$) $7,151.3 $6.14 $18,938 $16.26 $8,000 $6.87 $1,746 $1.50

Share Price (C$) $20.61 $20.61 $20.61 $20.61

NAV Multiple (P/NAV) 3.06x 1.16x 2.74x 12.54x

Input Assumptions 2013E 2014E 2015E Long Term

Gold Price ($/oz) 1,413 1,254 1254 1254

Silver Price ($/oz) 23.91 20.29 20.29 20.29

Copper Price ($/oz) 3.33 3.31 3.29 3.20

* Cerro Casale, Donlin, and Kabanga accounted for as exploration properties

Note: Base metal cash flow discounted at a minimum 5% discount rate




Financial & Operating Forecasts - At Price Deck

Our operating and financial forecasts for Barrick are summarized below and are displayed at the Dundee Price Deck.

Income Statement

(US$MM except per share data)

F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-13A Jun-13A Sep-13A Dec-13E Mar-14E Jun-14E Sep-14E Dec-14E 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E

Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,633 1,420 1,330 1,271 1,237 1,223 1,250 1,282 1,668 1,413 1,248 1,327

Revenue 3,437.0 3,201.0 2,985.0 2,740.7 2,706.8 2,678.1 2,757.3 2,865.2 14,547.0 12,363.7 11,007.4 12,222.8

Operating Costs (1,429.0) (1,379.0) (1,347.0) (1,251.5) (1,257.1) (1,226.5) (1,236.9) (1,266.8) (5,932.0) (5,406.5) (4,987.3) (4,977.4)

Depreciation (415.0) (453.0) (441.0) (414.1) (418.9) (407.6) (402.6) (416.3) (1,722.0) (1,723.1) (1,645.5) (1,845.0)

G&A, Expl, Other (265.0) (305.0) (317.0) (342.0) (221.5) (221.5) (221.5) (221.5) (1,257.0) (1,229.0) (886.0) (805.1)

EBIT 1,328.0 1,064.0 880.0 733.1 809.2 822.5 896.2 960.6 5,636.0 4,005.1 3,488.6 4,595.4

Net Interest (105.0) (159.0) (120.0) (126.7) (118.1) (116.6) (116.0) (115.6) (166.0) (510.7) (466.3) (441.8)

Unusual/Other Items 58.0 (9,314.0) 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (6,370.0) (9,250.0) 0.0 0.0

Pretax Profit 1,281.0 (8,409.0) 766.0 606.4 691.1 705.9 780.3 845.0 (900.0) (5,755.6) 3,022.3 4,153.6

Tax (420.0) 213.0 (748.0) (230.4) (262.6) (268.2) (296.5) (321.1) 236.0 (1,185.4) (1,148.5) (1,578.4)

Other (14.0) (359.0) 154.0 (72.1) (62.6) (70.1) (76.4) (81.6) (1.0) (291.1) (290.6) (373.4)

Earnings reported 847.0 (8,555.0) 172.0 303.9 365.9 367.6 407.4 442.3 (665.0) (7,232.1) 1,583.2 2,201.8

Earnings (Adjusted) 923.0 663.0 577.0 303.9 365.9 367.6 407.4 442.3 3,827.0 2,466.9 1,583.2 2,201.8

EPS Reported 0.85 (8.55) 0.17 0.28 0.31 0.32 0.35 0.38 (0.66) (7.25) 1.36 1.89

EPS Adjusted 0.92 0.66 0.58 0.28 0.31 0.32 0.35 0.38 3.83 2.44 1.36 1.89

Gross Operating Margin 58% 57% 55% 54% 54% 54% 55% 56% 59% 56% 55% 59%

Gold price assumptions: 2013 US$1413/oz, 2014 US$1248/oz, and 2015 US$1327/oz

Source: Company data, Dundee Capital Markets estimates

Cash Flow Statement



Earnings (adjusted) 923.0 663.0 577.0 303.9 365.9 367.6 407.4 442.3 3,827.0 2,466.9 1,583.2 2,201.8

Depreciation 415.0 453.0 441.0 414.1 418.9 407.6 402.6 416.3 1,722.0 1,723.1 1,645.5 1,845.0

Other (102.0) 59.0 166.0 20.0 57.8 64.9 78.6 93.4 990.0 143.0 294.7 521.5

Operating Cash flow 1,236.0 1,175.0 1,184.0 738.0 842.7 840.1 888.5 952.1 6,539.0 4,333.0 3,523.4 4,568.3

Working Capital Changes (151.0) (279.0) 48.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1,100.0) (382.0) 0.0 0.0

Cash Flow from Operations 1,085.0 896.0 1,232.0 738.0 842.7 840.1 888.5 952.1 5,439.0 3,951.0 3,523.4 4,568.3

Capital Expenditure (1,430.0) (1,556.0) (1,205.0) (844.2) (661.1) (637.3) (639.3) (601.5) (6,369.0) (5,035.2) (2,539.2) (3,052.4)

Net Investments (59.0) (34.0) 331.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (152.0) 238.0 0.0 0.0

Investing Cash Flow (1,489.0) (1,590.0) (874.0) (844.2) (661.1) (637.3) (639.3) (601.5) (6,521.0) (4,797.2) (2,539.2) (3,052.4)

Debt Additions 2,050.0 3,060.0 124.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,000.0 5,234.0 0.0 0.0

Debt Repayments (1,205.0) (2,066.0) (565.0) (2,494.8) 0.0 (54.0) 0.0 0.0 (1,462.0) (6,330.8) (54.0) (114.3)

Equity Financing 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,900.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 2,900.0 0.0 0.0

Other Net Financing (194.0) (203.0) (55.0) (66.1) (58.2) (58.2) (58.2) (58.2) (133.0) (518.1) (232.9) (232.9)

Financing Cash Flow 651.0 791.0 (496.0) 339.1 (58.2) (112.2) (58.2) (58.2) 423.0 1,285.1 (286.9) (347.2)

Foreign Exchange (2.0) (9.0) (1.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 (12.0) 0.0 0.0

Cash Increase 245.0 80.0 (139.0) 232.9 123.4 90.6 191.1 292.3 (652.0) 418.9 697.3 1,168.7

Cash Balance 2,342.0 2,422.0 2,283.0 2,515.9 2,639.3 2,729.9 2,920.9 3,213.2 2,093.0 2,515.9 3,213.2 4,381.9

Free Cash Flow 651.0 613.0 (462.0) (2,601.0) 181.6 148.8 249.3 350.5 708.0 (1,799.0) 930.3 1,401.6

CFPS (adjusted) 1.23 1.17 1.18 0.68 0.72 0.72 0.76 0.82 6.53 4.27 3.03 3.92


Balance Sheet



Current Assets 6,206.0 6,753.0 5,981.0 6,213.9 6,337.3 6,427.9 6,618.9 6,911.2 5,863.0 6,213.9 6,911.2 8,079.9

Other Assets 42,903.0 33,272.0 33,664.0 34,094.1 34,336.3 34,566.0 34,802.6 34,987.8 41,419.0 34,094.1 34,987.8 36,195.3

Total Assets 49,109.0 40,025.0 39,645.0 40,308.0 40,673.6 40,993.8 41,421.5 41,899.1 47,282.0 40,308.0 41,899.1 44,275.2

Current Liabilities 3,179.0 3,833.0 3,353.0 2,534.0 2,594.3 2,594.3 2,594.3 2,594.3 4,415.0 2,534.0 2,594.3 3,027.3

Long Term Debt 14,210.0 14,543.0 14,379.0 12,691.2 12,630.9 12,576.9 12,576.9 12,576.9 12,145.0 14,210.0 12,630.9 12,576.9

Other Liabilities 9,174.0 8,128.0 8,294.0 8,303.0 8,349.9 8,403.8 8,471.4 8,553.8 8,877.0 6,784.3 8,499.8 8,481.0

Total Liabilities 26,563.0 26,504.0 26,026.0 23,528.3 23,575.2 23,575.1 23,642.6 23,725.1 25,437.0 23,528.3 23,725.1 24,085.2

Shareholder's Equity 22,546.0 13,521.0 13,619.0 16,779.7 17,098.4 17,418.8 17,778.9 18,174.0 21,845.0 16,779.7 18,174.0 20,190.0

Shares (End of Period) (MM) 1,001.15 1,001.15 1,001.15 1,164.65 1,164.65 1,164.65 1,164.65 1,164.65 1,000.36 1,164.65 1,164.65 1,164.65

Book Value per Share 22.52 13.51 13.60 14.41 14.68 14.96 15.27 15.60 21.84 14.41 15.60 17.34




Operating Summary


Equity Gold Production (koz)

North America 872 928 901 887 892 909 908 901 3,429 3,588 3,610 3,802

Australia Pacific 448 465 497 330 320 320 320 320 1,840 1,740 1,281 1,144

South America 370 296 325 291 312 266 289 294 1,631 1,282 1,161 1,211

Africa 108 122 122 119 120 120 120 120 463 471 480 484

Equity Production 1,797 1,811 1,845 1,627 1,644 1,615 1,637 1,636 7,421 7,080 6,532 6,641

Co-Product Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)

North America 487 475 518 526 544 540 539 544 483 502 541 497

Australia Pacific 787 742 689 708 609 603 601 603 805 732 604 634

South America 405 439 501 465 474 414 422 425 447 454 436 398

Africa 931 894 748 754 726 727 733 735 947 830 730 717

Total Cash Costs 561 552 593 569 557 546 544 548 583 569 549 519

Equity Copper Production (koz)

Zaldivar (100.0%), Chile 70.0 69.0 68.0 68.0 73.5 73.5 73.5 73.5 289.0 275.0 293.9 327.1

Lumwana (100.0%), Zambia 57.0 65.0 71.0 63.5 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.7 178.0 256.5 262.9 257.1

Jabal Sayid (100.0%), Saudi Arabia - - - - - - - 9.6 - - 9.6 74.0

Adjustments/Other - - - - - - - - 1.0 - - -

Equity Cu Production 127.0 134.0 139.0 131.6 139.2 139.2 139.2 148.8 468.0 531.6 566.4 658.2

C1 Cash Costs (US$/oz)

Zaldivar (100.0%), Chile 1.54 1.60 1.63 1.50 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.61 1.57 1.46 1.33

Lumwana (100.0%), Zambia 3.41 1.96 1.75 1.82 1.89 1.85 1.86 1.87 3.04 2.19 1.87 1.97

Jabal Sayid (100.0%), Saudi Arabia - - - - - - - 2.16 - - 2.16 2.06

Total Cash Costs 2.46 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.66 1.64 1.65 1.70 2.08 1.88 1.66 1.66

Capex ($MM)

North America 320 381 306 276 293 293 293 242 1,681 1,282 1,121 931

Australia Pacific 115 114 101 63 66 66 66 66 507 393 265 257

South America 698 557 422 327 125 110 110 100 2,205 2,004 444 1,230

Africa 105 76 63 50 50 44 44 44 260 294 181 179

Copper 93 117 115 80 87 87 89 112 600 405 375 308

Capex ($MM) 1,430 1,556 1,205 844 661 637 639 602 6,369 5,035 2,539 3,052




Key Assets

Goldstrike (100% ownership; 6% of NAV; Nevada)

Source: Company reports

Milestones: -

Opportunities: Thiosulphate pressure oxidation project (3Q14);

Risks: Inflationary costs, ramp up/processing challenges of thiosulphate flowsheet

Barrick acquired a 50% interest and assumed management of the Goldstrike property on December 31, 1986 with the acquisition of Western State Minerals Corp.'s 50% interest in the property and consolidated its 100% ownership in January 1987. The Goldstrike operation includes the Betze-Post open pit mine and the Meikle and Rodeo underground mines. The open pit operation uses large electric shovels, while underground mining is conducted using transverse longhole stoping, plus underhand drift and fill mining methods. Sulphide ore is processed by either an autoclave circuit or a roasting circuit depending on the mineralogy. These facilities treat ores from both the surface and underground operations. In 2012, the mine produced 1.17 MMoz at total cash costs of $541/oz. Based on current reserves of 12.3 MMoz at 3.87 g/t, open pit operations will continue for 13 years, underground operations will continue for 14 years, with processing to continue for 16 years.

Due to increasing levels of carbonate in mined ore at Goldstrike, changes are underway to convert the pressure oxidation process from an acid circuit to an alkaline circuit. Using thiosulphate to leach gold after pressure oxidation (rather than cyanide) and resin to collect the dissolved gold (rather than carbon), ~4 MMoz is expected to be brought forward in the mine plan. Total project costs are guided at $585MM. Upon completion (4Q14), the modification is expected to increase annual contribution to 350,000-450,000 oz over the first five full years.



Cortez (100% ownership; 18% of NAV; Nevada)


Milestones: Goldrush PFS (mid-2015) and Feasibility (2016)

Opportunities: Highly prospective exploration; Development of Cortez Lower Zone.

Risks: Well understood, but complex metallurgy; Transition to underground Cortez mining in 2025.

The Cortez mine is located 100 km southwest of Elko, Nevada in Lander County. Initial open pit mining began in 1969 from the original Cortez mine, with the Pipeline deposits developed in 1996. Barrick acquired its ownership in the asset through its acquisition of Placer Dome Inc. Current mining operations are conducted at the Pipeline Complex and Cortez Complex, while underground mining is expected to begin in 2025. Conventional open pit mining methods will be employed for all phases of the Cortez Hills and Pipeline deposits, with underhand cut and fill being the preferred mining method for the underground operation. Ore is processed via run-of-mine heap leach, CIL flotation, with refractory ore trucked to Goldstrike for processing. In 2012, the mine produced 1.4 MMoz at adjusted operating costs of $282/oz. Cortez has reserves of 15.1MMoz at 1.69 g/t, with an expected remaining 13 year mine life for underground mining, 9 years for open pit mining, and 13 years for processing operations. Mineralization at Cortez is sedimentary rock hosted, consisting of micron-sized free gold particles disseminated throughout the host rock.

Cortez Mining and Goldrush/Red Hill Exploration Overview




Exploration at Cortez and in the surrounding areas remains one of the highest priority targets for Barrick. In recent years, considerable success has been achieved at the Red Hill and Goldrush exploration targets. These two targets are located 6 km southeast of Cortez and, as of year-end 2012, Goldrush measured and indicated resources have grown to 8.4 MMoz and inferred resources total 5.7 MMoz, while the system remains open in many directions. Encouragingly, the company sees the opportunity for additional district-scale opportunities.

Development of Goldrush is still in its early stages early and the company is still evaluating the best option for mining. Options for development include open pit, underground, or a combination of the two types. Work in 2013 has been focused upon additional exploration to identify the ideal method of mining, metallurgical work, hydrological studies, and defining areas for infrastructure through condemnation drilling. A pre-feasibility study is scheduled for completion in mid-2015, expected to be followed by a feasibility study, and potential multi-year permitting and development thereafter.

Lagunas Norte (100% ownership; 7% of NAV; Peru)


Milestones: De-bottlenecking new leach pad and carbon-in-column plant (4Q13)

Opportunities: Sizable low cost production

Risks: Transition to sulphidic material; Community relations conflict.

Lagunas Norte is located in north-central Peru, 140 km east of the coastal city of Trujillo, and 175 km north of Barrick’s Pierina mine. Barrick acquired its initial stake in the deposit from Centromin in 2002. The mine was developed in 2004, with initial production beginning in 2005 for total initial capex of $323MM. The mine is an open-pit, crush, valley-fill heap leach operation. In 2012, the mine produced 754 koz at total cash costs of $318/oz. Based on current reserves of 5.83 MMoz at 0.97 g/t, the expected mine life extends until 2022.

Expansions of the open pit, waste dump and leach pad areas will be required to extend the mine life for two additional years. A new EIA is currently being prepared, which Barrick expects to submit in 2014. Slightly higher production is expected in 4Q13 as a result of a newly installed carbon-in-column plant, which allows greater solution flow to the expanded leach pad, as well as higher grades and tonnage.



Veladero (100% ownership; 11% of NAV; Argentina)


Milestones: -

Opportunities: Potential throughput expansion.

Risks: Argentina fiscal controls, labour and inflation; Potential adverse government and regulatory responses from Pascua Lama suspension; Challenging elevation and weather.

The Veladero property is located in the province of San Juan, Argentina, south of Barrick’s Pascua-Lama project. Barrick acquired its initial 50% stake at Veladero through its acquisition of Lac Minerals Ltd. in 1994, and consolidated its 100% ownership through its merger with Homestake Mining in 2001. Veladero is an oxidized, high sulphidation gold-silver deposit hosted in volcaniclastic sediments, tuffs, and volcanic breccias. Construction of the mine commenced in the fourth quarter of 2003 and the first gold pour occurred in September 2005. The mine is an open pit, two-stage crush heap leach operation currently being mined from two open pits (Filo Federico and Amable) with waste stripping ongoing at a third open pit (Argenta). Royalties consists of a 3.75% NSR payable to the provincial government, and an additional 1.5% NSR payable on all production from the Argenta pit. In 2012, the mine produced 766 koz at total cash costs of $510/oz. Current reserves of 10.0 MMoz at 0.73 g/t support mining operations into 2026.

Barrick is currently awaiting approval for its fourth update of the EIS, which incorporates an expansion of the mineral leaching system of the mine. The document was submitted in September and is under evaluation by the San Juan government authorities.



Pueblo Viejo (60% ownership; 11% of NAV; Dominican Republic)


Milestones: Commercial production (Delivered - 1Q13); Power plant commissioning (Delivered - 3Q13); Revised fiscal stability agreement (Delivered - 3Q13); Full capacity ramp up (1H14).

Opportunities: World class development project with substantial free cash flow in early years; Improving silver recoveries and throughput rates.

Risks: Tailings dam permitting; Achievement of 24 ktpd target processing rate; Complex, but well understood metallurgy; Sulfur content and the impact of silver recoveries; Geopolitical uncertainty.

Pueblo Viejo is located in central Dominican Republic, 100km northwest of its capital city, Santo Domingo. The project is a joint venture between Barrick (60% ownership, operator) and Goldcorp (40% ownership). Barrick acquired its 100% stake in the operation with the acquisition of Placer Dome Inc. and subsequently sold a 40% stake to Goldcorp. The deposit consists of high sulphidation or acid sulphate epithermal gold, silver, copper, and zinc mineralization. Open pit operations are conducted in two pits (Monte Negro and Moore) with gold and silver recovered through pressure oxidation followed by cyanidation of gold and silver in a CIL circuit. The processing plant has a nameplate capacity of 24,000tpd with ore processed via four autoclaves followed by a CIL circuit.

Construction began in 2H08, with first gold pour achieved in August 2012 and commercial production reached in January 2013. Final initial capex was $3.7B (vs. March 2011 FS estimate of $3.0B). During startup, autoclave modifications were required to treat higher than expected sulfur levels, delaying commercial production timelines. Ramp up continues at the mine, with throughput levels expected to reach designed capacity in 1H14. Pueblo Viejo has a projected mine life of +22 years based on its current reserves of 25 MMoz at 2.83 g/t. Consolidated 2014 production (reported by Goldcorp) is guided for 1.01-1.05 MMoz.

On March 13, 2013, customs authorities in the Dominican Republic prevented shipment of the mine's gold and silver produced for export in order to renegotiate fiscal terms for the mine. Following several months of negotiations, in September 2013 the Government of Dominican Republic and Barrick Gold Corp. signed an agreement allowing the government to receive 51.3% of the total gross revenue, compared to the 37.1% the state would receive under the previous agreement.



Pascua Lama (100% ownership; 12% of NAV; Argentina/Chile)


Milestones: Chilean water management and construction permitting (2014)

Opportunities: Phased development approach to improve flexibility; Potential partnerships or streaming to improve risk/return.

Risks: High and uncertain initial capital costs; Permitting and timeline uncertainty; Argentinian fiscal controls; Inflationary pressures; Challenging elevation and weather.

Pascua-Lama is a large scale development project located on the border between Chile and Argentina. Barrick gained its interest in the project with the acquisition of Lac Minerals in 1994, followed by an extended period of economic studies and metallurgical analysis. Pascua-Lama reserves are predominantly gold-silver and total a considerable 17.9 MMoz gold and 676 MMoz silver, while modest copper reserves of 658 MMlbs accounts for roughly 5% of the value of the project. Once operational, Pascua-Lama is expected to produce 800,000-850,000 oz gold annually in its first five years of operations at attractive by-product costs of -$150-$0/oz.

The Pascua portion of the deposit, which contains over 80% of mineralization, is located on the Chilean side of the border, while the Lama side, located in Argentina, contains the majority of the critical infrastructure. Initially, legal, economic, and environmental issues to advance Pascua-Lama were complex, and were plagued by both cross-border fiscal agreements as well as the environmental sensitivity of several glaciers the project had originally been designed to minimize impact. Construction formally commenced in 2009, following a lengthy permitting period.

Pascua-Lama is designed to be a large scale open pit mine with non-refractory mineralization cyanide leached to produce dore on site, while refractory mineralization is subject to flotation for the production of a gold-silver concentrate. Elevation of the project ranges from 3,800m - 5,200m, which represents challenges for weather and labour productivity. An offtake agreement with Silver Wheaton was signed in 2009 to provide 25% of the life of mine silver production from Pascua-Lama and 100% of silver production from Barrick's Lagunas Norte, Veladero, and Pierina mines until project completion, for an up-front cash payment of $625MM.

While capital costs in 2009 for project development were initially $2.8-$3.0B, local and gold industry inflationary pressures, as well as project complications, have resulted in severe increases. Initial capital costs today have ballooned to an estimated $8.0-8.5B. Further complicating development, pre-stripping activities were halted in Chile in 4Q12 due to dust and water management issues. As a consequence of Pascua-Lama's environmental and economic issues as well as lower commodity prices, Barrick temporarily suspended



development of Pascua-Lama in October 2013. The company is continuing with its environmental requirements and is planning to advance development in a phased approach, and potentially with a partner, to mitigate development risks.

Zaldivar (100% ownership; 14% of NAV; Chile)


Milestones: Electrowinning plant capacity increase (2010).

Opportunities: Potential development of sulphides; Significant free cash flow generation.

Risks: Increasing capital costs to sustain production levels; Potential fiscal regime changes in Chile.

Zaldivar is an open pit copper heap leach operation in northern Chile. Prospectors discovered the deposit in 1979, with commercial production achieved in November 1995 for an initial capex of $574MM. Barrick acquired its 100% stake in the operation through its acquisition of Placer Dome in 2006. The deposit is part of a large porphyry copper system, containing both sulphide and oxide copper mineralization. Ore is processed via three stage crushing ore followed by heap leaching and subsequently electro-winning produces the pure copper cathode. Run-of-mine dump leach material is also placed on an old sulphide ore pad and leached. Modifications have been made to increase copper cathode production by 20% to 331 MMlbs of cathode copper per annum. In 2012, Zaldivar produced, 289 MMlbs Cu at C1 cash costs of $1.62/lb. Although recoveries and leaching kinetics have gradually improved over the past 8 years, lower head grades as a result of decreasing ore grades at depth require more material (and higher operating capital costs) to maintain its current production rates. Current reserves are 6.5 Blbs Cu at 0.53% Cu.



Lumwana (100% ownership; 1% of NAV; Zambia)


Milestones: Acquisition (Delivered - July 2011); Optimization and cost reduction (Ongoing).

Opportunities: Chimiwungo pit exploration upside (mineralization remains open to the east and south); Potential expansion to 50 MMtpa.

Risks: Proposed labour cost increases; Proposed fiscal term revisions in Zambia; Limited free cash flow generation.

Lumwana is located 400km northwest of the Zambian national capital of Lusaka. Barrick acquired its 100% interest in the operation through its $7.3B acquisition of Equinox Minerals in June 2011. Resources are defined within three copper deposits (Malundwe, Chimiwungo and Lubwe) and are structurally controlled, disseminated copper sulphide deposits of the Central African Copperbelt type. The Malundwe and Chimiwungo deposits were discovered in 1961 and 1962, with Equinox beginning extensive exploration activities in 1999 upon earning an interest in the property. Initial production began in 2008. Current open pit mining operations are conducted in the Malundwe and Chimiwungo pits, with ore processed through a conventional sulphide flotation processing facility to produce a copper concentrate. Current reserves are 6.0 Blbs at 0.52% Cu.

Exploration and infill drilling in 2012 revealed the Lumwana orebody did not meet Barrick’s economic expectations. A new LOM plan was completed in 4Q12, and Barrick recorded a $3.8B impairment charge during the quarter. In 2Q13, additional improvements were made to the mine plan, further reducing costs by terminating the contract of one of the mining contractors and lowering waste stripping from re-sequencing, resulting in better equipment availability. As a result of improved operating performance, in 3Q Barrick increased full year company-wide copper production guidance to 520-550 MMlbs (prev. 480-540 MMlbs) at C1 cash costs of $1.90-$2.00/lb (prev. $2.10-$2.30/lb).

In 2005, prior to development, Equinox entered into a Development Agreement with the Zambian government providing a 10-year stability period for fiscal provisions, including a 25% corporate tax rate and a royalty of 0.6%. However, in 2008 and 2011, Zambia increased its corporate tax rate to 30% and its royalty rate to 6%. While Barrick pays taxes and royalties at current statutory rates, the company believes fiscal terms from its Development Agreement prevails, and continues to seek compensation for breach of the stability agreement. Recently, Zambian officials have been focused on increasing labour and power costs at copper mines in the country. Labour costs are expected to increase by 8-10% annually from 2014-2018, while higher power costs may come into effect as early as February 2014.



Other Operations

Turquoise Ridge (75% ownership; 2% NAV; Nevada)

Reserves (100%): 7.75 MMoz grading 13.07 g/t

Details/Catalysts: Turquoise Ridge is an underground mining operation with ore processed at Newmont's Twin

Creeks mill. Previously, Barrick expected to complete a pre-feasibility study entertaining

expanded throughput rates.

Bald Mountain (100% ownership; 1% NAV; Nevada)

Reserves (100%): 5.16 MMoz grading 0.60 g/t

Details/Catalysts: Bald Mountain is an open pit, run-of-mine heap leach operation. Currently, Barrick is seeking

to improve its operating performance by reducing the number of mined pits and focus on the

most profitable ounces.

Round Mountain (50% ownership; 1% NAV; Nevada)

Reserves (100%): 2.49 MMoz at 0.62 g/t

Details/Catalysts: Round Mountain is a conventional open-pit joint-venture operation with Kinross Gold.

Optimization continues with its JV partner to improve the mine's operating performance.

Marigold (33% ownership; <1% NAV; Nevada)


Details/Catalysts: Round Mountain is a conventional open pit, heap leach operation than is jointly owned by

Barrick (33%) and Goldcorp (67%). Barrick is currently working with its partner to optimize the

mine plan, and potentially seek divestiture of the asset.

Hemlo (100% ownership; 2% NAV; Ontario)


Details/Catalysts: Hemlo is an underground/open pit operation located 350 km east of Thunder Bay. Recently,

the company has planned to defer any open pit expansion, and optimize its underground

operations.

Pierina (100% ownership; <1% NAV; Peru)

Reserves (100%): 542 koz at 0.37 g/t

Details/Catalysts: Pierina is an open pit, run-of mine heap leach operation. Due to the high cost nature of the

mine, Barrick has initiated closure procedures, with production expected to cease in 2014.

Jabal Sayid (100% ownership; 3% NAV; Saudi Arabia)

Reserves (100%): 1.34 Blbs Cu at 2.53% Cu

Details/Catalysts: Jabal Sayid is an open pit copper project, developed in 2012, but awaiting formal approval to

commence operations. Barrick expects to be in full compliance with the country's safety and

security standards in 2014. Once operational, Jabal Sayid is expected to produce 100-130

MMlbs copper at C1 cash costs of $1.50-$1.70/lb in its first five full years of production.



Kalgoorlie (50% ownership; 2% NAV; Australia)


Details/Catalysts: Kalgoorlie is an open pit mine operation jointly held by Barrick (50%) and Newmont (50%) and

consists primarily of the Super Pit open-pit mine, located along the Golden Mile ore bodies

which were previously mined from underground.

Porgera (95% ownership; 2% NAV; Papa New Guinea)


Details/Catalysts: Porgera is an open pit/underground JV operation 95% owned by Barrick (remainder owned by

PNG government). Optimization is ongoing at the project to improve the mine's operating

performance.

Cowal (100% ownership; 3% NAV; Australia)


Details/Catalysts: Cowal is an open pit operation, mined by a fleet of dump trucks, excavators and ancillary

equipment. YTD production is 232 koz at total cash costs of $420/oz.

African Barrick Gold (73.9% ownership; 3% NAV; Tanzania)


Details/Catalysts: African Barrick Gold consists of 3 producing mines (Bulyanhulu, Buzwagi, North Mara).

Barrick divested its 51.7% ownership in Tulawaka in November 2013 to the Tanzanian State

Mining Corporation for $4.5MM and a 2% NSR. Currently Barrick remains focused on reducing

operating costs at its current operations to improve cash flow generation.



Risks

Commodity Price Risk - High

Barrick's valuation is dependent upon the price of gold, silver, and copper. Our outlook for these commodities is positive, but price declines would be expected to impact the valuation of Barrick's assets and could affect development decisions. We estimate ABX’s NAV would change by 90% for a 10% change in the price of gold and silver, assuming other inputs remain fixed. This leverage is high compared to the average of 47% for our coverage universe.

NAV Sensitivity to Gold Prices


Country Risk - High

Barrick operates or has projects in Canada, United States, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Chile, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Peru, Tanzania, Saudi Arabia, and Zambia; each of which has its own legislative bodies and laws. A change in government will always pose a risk. In addition, Barrick is vulnerable to potential geopolitical and social unrest which could impact production targets and operating costs.

In Chile, recently elected president Michelle Bachelet intends to increase corporate income tax rates from 20% to 25%. Higher taxes would have a material impact on Chile’s mining industry, which has experienced significant increases in labour, supply and power costs. A change in tax rates could impact cash flow generated at Zaldivar and project economics at Barrick's Pascua Lama and Cerro Casale development projects.

In Argentina, fiscal controls have impacted the ability to source equipment internationally and engage in foreign exchange transactions. Additionally, in September 2013, Argentina's federal Income Tax Statute was amended to include a 10% income withholding tax on dividend distributions by Argentine corporations. The inclusion the tax amendments could have an impact on project economics and cash distributions at Barrick's operations in Argentina (Veladero and Pascua-Lama).

In Zambia, labour costs are expected to increase by 8-10% annually from 2014-2018, while higher power costs may come into effect as early as February 2014.

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NAVPS 2014E CFPS



Permitting Risk - Medium

Exploration activities, project development, and mineral exploitation require permitting approval from respective legislative bodies (federal, provincial/state, municipal) in Canada, United States, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Chile, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Peru, Tanzania, Saudi Arabia, and Zambia. While multiple permits are necessary to achieve production status, a key hurdle surrounds the approval of a project's Environment Impact Assessment (EIA/EIS). Receipt of any permits cannot be guaranteed, while respective legislative bodies reserve the power to halt and potentially revoke permits.

Currency Risk - Medium

Barrick' costs and capital expenditures are exposed to the Canadian dollar, U.S. dollar, the Australian dollar, the Peruvian neuvo sol, the Argentine peso, and the Chilean peso. We note that future volatility in exchange rates may result in material changes to our valuation. Currently, Barrick remains unhedged to gold prices. In 2009, Barrick signed an agreement with Silver Wheaton to provide 25% of the life of mine silver production from Pascua-Lama and 100% of silver production from Barrick's Lagunas Norte, Veladero, and Pierina mines until project completion, for an up-front cash payment of $625MM. Barrick reduces its copper price risk with options calls and puts, it holds energy hedges, and currency hedges related to the Australian Dollar, Canadian dollar, and Chilean Peso.

Technical Risk - Medium

Reserves, resources and anticipated additions are estimates based on the best available information. Variances from these estimates, in particular continuity, grades and recoveries, could negatively impact the valuation of projects. Input commodity prices may impact reserve and resource calculations, as a lower gold price assumption could decrease a company's year-over-year mineable inventory (excluding depletion). At year-end 2012, Barrick utilized a gold price of $1,500/oz for its reserve calculation, while lower gold prices have the potential to materially impact reserves. Our parameter assumptions are subject to significant uncertainty. Operating, geological or metallurgical parameters may differ from expectations. Changes to environmental protection laws and regulations could affect the company’s operations.


Goldcorp (G-T: C$25.43), (GG-N: US$23.17) January 21, 2014

NEUTRAL, High Risk




Elevated Delivery Risk, Transition Year Ahead; Initiating with a Neutral

We are initiating coverage of Goldcorp with a NEUTRAL rating and 12-month C$25.50 price target, based on a blend of 1.6x our NAV5% at a long term gold price of $1,325/oz and 16x our 2014E-15E cash flow estimate.

Growth and Catalysts Solidify Position, Underappreciated Risks

Following several years of heavy capital investment, Goldcorp is scheduled to embark on a period of accelerated growth as it delivers three major projects in 2014. As capital spending tapers and low cost production is achieved, FCF yield has the potential to increase from (5.3)% in 2014 to 3.6% in 2015. Although Goldcorp's outlook benefits from prospective catalysts and near term growth, a premium valuation and high delivery risk are in our view mitigating factors, which have also impacted the company in recent years. 2H14 carries elevated delivery risk with Cerro Negro (production expected in mid-2014), Cochenour (production late 2015) and Eleonore (production late 2014), while successful delivery of these projects has the potential to be a positive catalyst long term. Beyond delivery risk, Argentina remains a current uncertainty for Cerro Negro (9% of NAV), as does disputed land ownership at Penasquito (26% of NAV).

Osisko Acquisition Prospects Encouraging, Modestly Accretive to Valuation

On January 13, Goldcorp announced a hostile proposal to acquire Osisko and its flagship Malartic project in Quebec. We calculate current terms of the transaction are 2% accretive to NAV, while it would reduce Goldcorp's higher delivery risk exposure and improve financial liquidity. We estimate the company would have the ability to increase the share component of its current offer by 9% before the transaction becomes dilutive to NAV, while a potential all-share offer could be entertained at a >60% premium to the prior offer until it would be dilutive. Given this bid flexibility, the company's high cash balance, and relative valuation premium, we believe the company is positioned well to succeed with its proposal.

Financial Risk Elevated as Debt Repayment Coincides with Heavy Spending

As of 3Q13, Goldcorp held $2.9B in total long and short term debt and $972MM in cash. Future production growth for Goldcorp and declining capital spending is expected to support the company's improving financial outlook. However, short term, the company faces $862MM in debt repayment and will require additional funding in 2014, potentially supported by external debt, monetization of a $1.3B equity portfolio, or the successful acquisition of Osisko. Interestingly, despite this higher financial stress, Goldcorp is the sole senior North American producer to not have reduced its dividend ($487MM annually), potentially supporting its conviction of the free cash flow generation capacity of its growth assets.

G: Price/Volume Chart

Source: Factset

Company Description

Goldcorp is a senior gold producer focused on production from low cost ounces in politically safe jurisdictions. 2014 production is for 3.00-3.15 MMoz.

Recommendation

Rating: NEUTRAL

Target: C$25.50

Risk: High

2013 EPS

2014 EPS

Company Data

Price (01/17/14): C$25.43

52-Week Range: C$21.87-38.34







Cash ($MM): US$972

Debt ($MM): US$2,946

Working Capital ($MM): US$645


NAV LT Gold Price:

Price Deck:

Spot Gold:

EPS 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E

Q1 0.50 A 0.31 A 0.09 E

Q2 0.41 A 0.14 A 0.08 E

Q3 0.54 A 0.23 A 0.09 E

Q4 0.57 A 0.16 E 0.11 E

FY 2.03 A 0.85 E 0.37 E

P/E 11.4x 27.2x 63.2x

CFPS 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E

FY 2.97 A 1.78 E 1.31 E

P/CF 7.8x 13.0x 17.7x



10.31

P/NAV

811.5

829.1

2.6%

5,135

1.83x

2.25x

$1,325/oz

$1,254/oz

0.85

0.37

New

US$/sh

12.64

Ap r-1 2 O c t-1 2 Ap r-1 3 O c t-1 3

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G o l d c o r p I n c . (G -C A)


Vo lu m e G o ld co rp In c .





Goldcorp Inc.: Forecasts at Dundee Price DeckRating NEUTRAL Basic Shares (MM) 811.5 Dundee Capital Markets

Risk High Diluted Shares (ITM / FD) (MM) 812.1 / 829.1 Josh Wolfson, CFA





Equity Gold Production (koz) 2,396.2 2,653.0 3,057.8 3,605.5 3,773.4 Assets

Red Lake 507.7 493.0 473.2 607.7 619.8 Cash 918.0 625.2 455.5 1,157.2 1,645.0

Musselwhite 239.2 255.0 242.3 257.0 264.7 Other Current Assets 1,610.0 1,695.0 1,695.0 1,695.0 1,695.0

Porcupine 262.8 292.0 299.1 286.7 280.4 Current Assets 2,528.0 2,320.2 2,150.5 2,852.2 3,340.0

El Sauzal 81.8 81.0 100.6 86.2 30.3 Non-current Assets 28,684.0 28,374.3 29,407.1 28,956.7 28,963.9

Marlin 207.3 202.0 179.9 183.8 169.9 Total Assets 31,212.0 30,694.4 31,557.6 31,808.9 32,303.9

Los Filos 340.4 332.0 336.8 328.6 343.1 Liabilities

Penasquito 411.3 392.3 555.1 589.5 598.2 Current Liabilities 1,175.0 2,178.7 1,181.0 1,181.0 1,181.0

Eleonore - - 43.2 271.2 306.6 Long Term Debt 783.0 1,914.0 3,914.0 3,914.0 3,914.0

Wharf 68.1 56.0 60.3 63.8 63.8 Other non-current Liabilities 6,538.0 5,824.4 5,782.4 5,764.3 5,776.2

Marigold 96.3 108.0 99.7 125.9 124.3 Total Liabilities 8,496.0 9,917.2 10,877.3 10,859.3 10,871.1

Pueblo Viejo - 323.7 412.7 421.4 442.8 Total Shareholder Equity 22,716.0 20,777.3 20,680.3 20,949.7 21,432.8

Cerro Negro - - 129.1 273.6 419.3

Alumbrera 136.6 117.9 125.6 110.2 110.2 INCOME STATEMENT

Other 44.7 0.1 - - - US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Total Cash Costs (Co-Prod) (US$/oz) 639 710 701 696 662 Total Revenue 5,435.0 3,844.0 3,801.7 5,067.3 5,562.1

Total Cash Costs (By-Prod) (US$/oz) 304 564 537 495 442 % Gold 71% 75% 75% 74% 73%

% Silver 17% 14% 13% 13% 14%

GOLD RESERVES AND RESOURCES % Copper 7% 6% 7% 6% 5%

Category 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A % Other 5% 5% 6% 8% 7%

Proven and Probable Operating Costs 2,337.0 2,173.7 2,275.3 2,789.2 2,958.8

Tonnes (MM) 1577.0 1753.9 2098.2 2561.1 2410.4 G&A 245.0 259.0 276.0 276.0 273.7

Grade (g/t) 0.84 0.79 0.76 0.72 0.82 Exploration 55.0 46.0 57.3 48.0 48.3

Oz (MM) 43.4 46.3 48.8 60.1 64.7 Depreciation 675.0 670.5 859.5 1,076.2 1,040.0

Assumed reserve additions (MMoz) 11.3 Other - - - - -

LOM Production (MMoz) 54.2 EBITDA 2,798.0 1,365.3 1,193.1 1,954.1 2,281.2

Measured, Indicated, & Inferred (excl.) EBIT 2,123.0 694.8 333.5 877.9 1,241.2

Oz (MM) 49.0 43.0 42.3 35.3 44.1 Net Interest Expense 30.0 49.9 62.0 103.9 103.3

Reserve and Resource Statistics Unusual/Other Items 52.0 (2,587.7) (124.1) (207.8) (206.6)

Reserves/sh (x1,000) 60.6 63.3 66.3 74.7 79.8 EBT 2,205.0 (1,843.1) 271.5 774.0 1,137.9

Reserves & resources/sh (x1,000) 129.1 122.0 123.8 118.5 134.2 Taxes 503.0 (414.4) 111.3 294.1 432.4

Current Per Ounce Statistics Minority Interest 47.0 - - - -

Adj. EV / LOM Prod (US$/oz) 587 EV/Resource (US$/oz) 175 Other 94.0 (60.3) 137.7 184.4 173.3

Total Acquisition Cost (US$/oz) 1337 EV/Reserve (US$/oz) 310 Net Income (Reported) 1,749.0 (1,489.0) 297.9 664.3 878.8

Net Income (Adjusted) 1,642.0 691.0 297.9 664.3 878.8

NET ASSET VALUE (US$)

Asset NAV /Share % NAV % Resrv EPS (Reported) ($/sh) 2.16 (1.83) 0.37 0.82 1.08

Canada/U.S. 4,156 5.12 31% 25% EPS (Adjusted) ($/sh) 2.03 0.85 0.37 0.82 1.08

Mexico 4,458 5.49 33% 38% Average shares (MM) 810.6 811.5 811.5 811.5 811.5

Central America 2,727 3.36 20% 17%

South America 1,490 1.83 11% 20% CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Investments 1,278 1.57 10% 0% US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Other (Silver Hedge) -766 -0.94 -6% 0% Net Income (Reported) 1,749.0 (1,489.0) 297.9 664.3 878.8

Total Mining and Investment Assets 13,342 16.43 100% 100% Depreciation 675.0 670.5 859.5 1,076.2 1,040.0

Balance Sheet Items & Expenditures -3,075 -3.79 Other (16.0) 2,267.0 (92.1) (110.5) (70.3)

Total 10,267 12.64 Operating Cash Flow 2,408.0 1,448.5 1,065.4 1,630.0 1,848.6

Operating Cash Flow ($/sh) 2.97 1.78 1.31 2.01 2.28

NAV BY ASSET GOLD RESERVES BY ASSET Working Capital Changes (311.0) (373.0) - - -


Capital Expenditure (2,521.0) (2,132.8) (2,167.3) (882.1) (838.8)

Net Investments 235.0 (164.8) 412.7 440.7 (35.1)

Investing Cash Flow (2,286.0) (2,297.6) (1,754.6) (441.4) (873.9)


Debt Additions - 1,612.0 2,000.0 - -

Debt Repayments - (38.0) (993.5) - -

Equity Financing 44.0 3.0 - - -


Financing Cash Flow (394.0) 1,090.3 519.6 (486.9) (486.9)

Foreign Exchange - - - - -

Change In Cash (583.0) (131.8) (169.7) 701.8 487.8

Cash Balance 918.0 625.2 455.5 1,157.2 1,645.0

Free Cash Flow (113.0) 889.7 (95.5) 748.0 1,009.8

Adj. Free Cash Flow (1) (424.0) (1,057.3) (1,102.0) 748.0 1,009.8

GOLD PRODUCTION PROFILE

VALUATION DATA

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

P/E 11.4x 27.2x 63.2x 28.3x 21.4x

P/CF 7.8x 13.0x 17.7x 11.5x 10.2x

EV/EBITDA 7.4x 15.2x 17.4x 10.6x 9.1x

Adj. FCF Yield (1) (0.5%) (3.3%) (5.3%) 3.6% 4.9%

INPUT PRICES

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Key Commodities

Gold (US$/oz) 1,668 1,413 1,248 1,327 1,330

Silver (US$/oz) 31.13 23.91 20.80 22.12 22.17

Copper (US$/lb) 3.61 3.33 3.30 3.50 3.50

Zinc (US$/lb) 0.88 0.87 0.90 1.00 1.00

Oil (US$/bbl) 94 98 100 103 104

Key Currencies

CAD/USD 1.00 0.97 0.91 0.89 0.93

USD/MXP 13.15 12.76 13.00 13.00 13.50

USD/ARS 4.54 5.44 5.75 6.11 6.11

USD/CLP 486 495 500 510 520



25%

38%

17%

20%0%0%

Canada/U.S. Mexico

Central America South America

Investments Other

31%

33%

20%

11%

10%-6%

Canada/U.S. Mexico


Investments Other

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Red Lake Musselwhite Porcupine MarlinLos Filos Penasquito Eleonore Pueblo ViejoCerro Negro Other TCC (Co-prod) TCC (By-prod)



Goldcorp Inc.: Forecasts at Spot GoldRating NEUTRAL Basic Shares (MM) 811.5 Dundee Capital Markets

Risk High Diluted Shares (ITM / FD) (MM) 812.1 / 829.1 Josh Wolfson, CFA





Equity Gold Production (koz) 2,396.2 2,653.0 3,057.8 3,605.5 3,773.4 Assets

Red Lake 507.7 493.0 473.2 607.7 619.8 Cash 918.0 625.2 464.0 966.3 1,227.7

Musselwhite 239.2 255.0 242.3 257.0 264.7 Other Current Assets 1,610.0 1,695.0 1,695.0 1,695.0 1,695.0

Porcupine 262.8 292.0 299.1 286.7 280.4 Current Assets 2,528.0 2,320.2 2,159.0 2,661.3 2,922.7

El Sauzal 81.8 81.0 100.6 86.2 30.3 Non-current Assets 28,684.0 28,374.3 29,411.2 28,936.7 28,908.1

Marlin 207.3 202.0 179.9 183.8 169.9 Total Assets 31,212.0 30,694.4 31,570.2 31,598.0 31,830.8

Los Filos 340.4 332.0 336.8 328.6 343.1 Liabilities

Penasquito 411.3 392.3 555.1 589.5 598.2 Current Liabilities 1,175.0 2,178.7 1,181.0 1,181.0 1,181.0

Eleonore - - 43.2 271.2 306.6 Long Term Debt 783.0 1,914.0 3,914.0 3,914.0 3,914.0

Wharf 68.1 56.0 60.3 63.8 63.8 Other non-current Liabilities 6,538.0 5,824.4 5,785.8 5,748.1 5,729.9

Marigold 96.3 108.0 99.7 125.9 124.3 Total Liabilities 8,496.0 9,917.2 10,880.7 10,843.0 10,824.8

Pueblo Viejo - 323.7 412.7 421.4 442.8 Total Shareholder Equity 22,716.0 20,777.3 20,689.5 20,755.0 21,006.0

Cerro Negro - - 129.1 273.6 419.3

Alumbrera 136.6 117.9 125.6 110.2 110.2 INCOME STATEMENT

Other 44.7 0.1 - - - US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Total Cash Costs (Co-Prod) (US$/oz) 639 710 702 694 659 Total Revenue 5,435.0 3,844.0 3,815.4 4,775.2 5,230.7

Total Cash Costs (By-Prod) (US$/oz) 304 564 538 521 470 % Gold 71% 75% 75% 74% 74%

% Silver 17% 14% 13% 12% 14%

GOLD RESERVES AND RESOURCES % Copper 7% 6% 7% 6% 5%

Category 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A % Other 5% 5% 6% 8% 7%

Proven and Probable Operating Costs 2,337.0 2,173.7 2,275.9 2,772.7 2,940.0

Tonnes (MM) 1577.0 1753.9 2098.2 2561.1 2410.4 G&A 245.0 259.0 276.0 276.0 273.7

Grade (g/t) 0.84 0.79 0.76 0.72 0.82 Exploration 55.0 46.0 57.3 48.0 48.3

Oz (MM) 43.4 46.3 48.8 60.1 64.7 Depreciation 675.0 670.5 859.5 1,076.2 1,040.0

Assumed reserve additions (MMoz) 11.3 Other - - - - -

LOM Production (MMoz) 54.2 EBITDA 2,798.0 1,365.3 1,206.2 1,678.5 1,968.6

Measured, Indicated, & Inferred (excl.) EBIT 2,123.0 694.8 346.7 602.3 928.6


Reserve and Resource Statistics Unusual/Other Items 52.0 (2,587.7) (123.9) (209.0) (214.9)

Reserves/sh (x1,000) 60.6 63.3 66.3 74.7 79.8 EBT 2,205.0 (1,843.1) 284.8 497.8 821.2

Reserves & resources/sh (x1,000) 129.1 122.0 123.8 118.5 134.2 Taxes 503.0 (414.4) 116.8 189.2 312.0

Current Per Ounce Statistics Minority Interest 47.0 - - - -

Adj. EV / LOM Prod (US$/oz) 590 EV/Resource (US$/oz) 175 Other 94.0 (60.3) 139.1 151.8 137.5

Total Acquisition Cost (US$/oz) 1335 EV/Reserve (US$/oz) 310 Net Income (Reported) 1,749.0 (1,489.0) 307.1 460.4 646.6

Net Income (Adjusted) 1,642.0 691.0 307.1 460.4 646.6


Asset NAV /Share % NAV % Resrv EPS (Reported) ($/sh) 2.16 (1.83) 0.38 0.57 0.80

Canada/U.S. 3,285 4.05 29% 25% EPS (Adjusted) ($/sh) 2.03 0.85 0.38 0.57 0.80

Mexico 3,815 4.70 33% 38% Average shares (MM) 810.6 811.5 811.5 811.5 811.5

Central America 2,465 3.04 22% 17%

South America 1,260 1.55 11% 20% CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Investments 1,278 1.57 11% 0% US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Other (Silver Hedge) -659 -0.81 -6% 0% Net Income (Reported) 1,749.0 (1,489.0) 307.1 460.4 646.6

Total Mining and Investment Assets 11,445 14.09 100% 100% Depreciation 675.0 670.5 859.5 1,076.2 1,040.0

Balance Sheet Items & Expenditures -3,075 -3.79 Other (16.0) 2,267.0 (90.1) (97.5) (64.5)

Total 8,370 10.31 Operating Cash Flow 2,408.0 1,448.5 1,076.6 1,439.1 1,622.2

Operating Cash Flow ($/sh) 2.97 1.78 1.33 1.77 2.00

NAV BY ASSET GOLD RESERVES BY ASSET Working Capital Changes (311.0) (373.0) - - -


Capital Expenditure (2,521.0) (2,132.8) (2,170.0) (890.6) (838.8)

Net Investments 235.0 (164.8) 412.7 440.7 (35.1)

Investing Cash Flow (2,286.0) (2,297.6) (1,757.3) (449.9) (873.9)


Debt Additions - 1,612.0 2,000.0 - -

Debt Repayments - (38.0) (993.5) - -



Financing Cash Flow (394.0) 1,090.3 519.6 (486.9) (486.9)

Foreign Exchange - - - - -

Change In Cash (583.0) (131.8) (161.1) 502.3 261.4

Cash Balance 918.0 625.2 464.0 966.3 1,227.7

Free Cash Flow (113.0) 889.7 (86.9) 548.5 783.4

Adj. Free Cash Flow (1) (424.0) (1,057.3) (1,093.4) 548.5 783.4

GOLD PRODUCTION PROFILE

VALUATION DATA

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

P/E 11.4x 27.2x 61.3x 40.9x 29.1x

P/CF 7.8x 13.0x 17.5x 13.1x 11.6x

EV/EBITDA 7.4x 15.2x 17.2x 12.4x 10.6x

Adj. FCF Yield (1) (0.5%) (3.3%) (5.3%) 2.6% 3.8%

INPUT PRICES

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Key Commodities

Gold (US$/oz) 1,668 1,413 1,254 1,254 1,254

Silver (US$/oz) 31.13 23.91 20.29 20.29 20.29

Copper (US$/lb) 3.61 3.33 3.31 3.29 3.27

Zinc (US$/lb) 0.88 0.87 0.94 0.95 0.95

Oil (US$/bbl) 94 98 100 103 104

Key Currencies

CAD/USD 1.00 0.97 0.91 0.89 0.93

USD/MXP 13.15 12.76 13.00 13.00 13.50

USD/ARS 4.54 5.44 5.75 6.11 6.11

USD/CLP 486 495 500 510 520



25%

38%

17%

20%0%0%

Canada/U.S. Mexico


Investments Other

29%

33%

22%

11%

11%-6%

Canada/U.S. Mexico


Investments Other

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

To

tal C

ash

Co

sts

(U

S$/o

z)

Eq

uit

y G

old

Pro

du

cti

on

(ko

z)

Red Lake Musselwhite Porcupine MarlinLos Filos Penasquito Eleonore Pueblo ViejoCerro Negro Other TCC (Co-prod) TCC (By-prod)



Company Overview

Goldcorp is a senior gold producer focused on production from low cost ounces in politically safe jurisdictions. In 2005, Goldcorp was transformed from being a single asset company following a $2.4B merger with Wheaton River. In 2006, Goldcorp continued to grow as the company acquired Placer Dome's Americas assets for $1.6B (Campbell, Porcupine, Musselwhite, 40% stake in Pueblo Viejo), and merged with Glamis Gold for a total consideration of $8.6B. Goldcorp currently has a portfolio of 19 assets (11 producing mines, 8 development project) located in Canada, the U.S., Mexico, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and Chile. Current attributable reserves are 67.1 MMoz grading 0.80 g/t.

In 2013, the company achieved production of approximately 2.67 MMoz at total cash costs of $560/oz. 2014 guidance is for 3.00-3.15 MMoz, of which 85% is attributable to operations in Canada, U.S., Mexico and the Dominican Republic. While in 2012 and 2013 the company has had difficulty with some if its core operations (ground stability issues at Red Lake, ramp up issues and water availability at Penasquito, fiscal regime changes at Pueblo Viejo), steady progress has been being made to resolve these issues.

In addition to the company's current producing assets, growth is expected from three development projects: Eleonore (acquired in 2006 for $420MM from Virginia Mines), Cochenour (via its $1.5B Golden Eagle Mines acquisition in 2008), and Cerro Negro (via its $3.6B acquisition of Andean Minerals in 2010). Upon initial production of these assets, Goldcorp's production pipeline is expected to increase to 3.85 MMoz by 2016. More recently in January 2013, Goldcorp engaged in a hostile takeover proposal to acquire Osisko Mining for C$2.6B and the company's flagship Malartic asset in Quebec. In addition to its current development pipeline, Goldcorp's exploration pipeline includes Camino Rojo (acquired via Canplats Resources for $309MM), and El Morro (purchased its 70% interest from New Gold for $513MM in 2010).

Shares of Goldcorp are listed on the TSX exchange under the ticker G and on the NYSE under the ticker GG. Basic shares outstanding total 812.5MM, with an additional 17.5MM options outstanding. Major shareholders include BlackRock Asset Management Canada (11.2%), Van Eck Associates (4.9%), First Eagle Investment Management (3.9%), TDAM USA (2.6%), and RBC Global Assets Management (2.6%). Insiders hold approximately 0.6%.

Goldcorp Corporate Exposure Overview


Silver12%

Gold79%

Base Metal

9%

Commodity Exposure

Canada31%

Mexico29%

Guat.7%

DR18%

Other3%

Geographic Exposure

Argentina 13%

Operating vs. Development

Operating Assets81%

Exploration & Development

19%




Goldcorp Inc.Net Asset Valuation at Spot Gold (US$)

Shares (FD, FF, ITM) (MM) 812.1



Discount 0% 5% 10%


Gold and Silver Assets

Cerro Negro (100.0%), Argentina 5% $988 $1.22 $1,782 $2.19 $988 $1.22 $529 $0.65

Red Lake (100.0%), Canada (ON) 5% $833 $1.03 $1,028 $1.27 $833 $1.03 $690 $0.85

Musselwhite (100.0%), Canada (ON) 5% $654 $0.80 $851 $1.05 $654 $0.80 $517 $0.64

Porcupine (100.0%), Canada (ON) 5% $596 $0.73 $742 $0.91 $596 $0.73 $493 $0.61

El Sauzal (100.0%), Mexico 5% $45 $0.06 $45 $0.06 $45 $0.06 $44 $0.05

Marlin (100.0%), Guatemala 5% $679 $0.84 $796 $0.98 $679 $0.84 $588 $0.72

Los Filos (100.0%), Mexico 5% $611 $0.75 $916 $1.13 $611 $0.75 $438 $0.54

Eleonore (100.0%), Canada (QC) 5% $1,045 $1.29 $1,765 $2.17 $1,045 $1.29 $586 $0.72

Wharf (100.0%), US (SD) 5% $66 $0.08 $78 $0.10 $66 $0.08 $56 $0.07

Marigold (66.7%), US (NV) 5% $92 $0.11 $184 $0.23 $92 $0.11 $48 $0.06

Alumbrera (37.5%), Argentina 5% $91 $0.11 $103 $0.13 $91 $0.11 $82 $0.10

Pueblo Viejo (40.0%), Dominican Republic 5% $1,787 $2.20 $3,054 $3.76 $1,787 $2.20 $1,177 $1.45

Camino Rojo HL (100.0%), Mexico 5% $160 $0.20 $310 $0.38 $160 $0.20 $77 $0.10

Penasquito (100.0%), Mexico 5% $2,160 $2.66 $3,022 $3.72 $2,160 $2.66 $1,611 $1.98

Silver Hedge Book 5% ($1,059) -$1.30 ($1,433) -$1.77 ($1,059) -$1.30 ($816) -$1.01

Gold Exploration Properties $400 $0.49 $400 $0.49 $400 $0.49 $400 $0.49

Gold Hedge Book $0 0 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 0


Base Metal and Other Assets

Penasquito (100.0%), Mexico 10% $840 $1.03 $1,127 $1.39 $1,127 $1.39 $840 $1.03

Alumbrera (37.5%), Argentina 10% $181 $0.22 $228 $0.28 $202 $0.25 $181 $0.22


Investments $1,278 $1.57 $1,278 $1.57 $1,278 $1.57 $1,278 $1.57

Total Other Assets $2,299 $2.83 $2,633 $3.24 $2,607 $3.21 $2,299 $2.83


Basic Working Capital $645 $0.79 $645 $0.79 $645 $0.79 $645 $0.79


Estimated Working Capital Additions $3,500 $4.31 $3,500 $4.31 $3,500 $4.31 $3,500 $4.31

Long-term Debt ($1,914) -$2.36 ($1,914) -$2.36 ($1,914) -$2.36 ($1,914) -$2.36

Estimated Debt Additions ($3,500) -$4.31 ($3,500) -$4.31 ($3,500) -$4.31 ($3,500) -$4.31

General & Administrative Expense 5% ($1,676) -$2.06 ($2,365) -$2.91 ($1,676) -$2.06 ($1,264) -$1.56



Net Asset Value (US$) $8,370 $10.31 $12,493 $15.38 $8,678 $10.69 $6,172 $7.60

Share Price (C$) $25.43 $25.43 $25.43 $25.43



Gold Price ($/oz) 1,413 1,254 1254 1254

Silver Price ($/oz) 23.91 20.29 20.29 20.29

Copper Price ($/oz) 3.33 3.31 3.29 3.20




Financial Forecasts - At Price Deck

Our operating and financial forecasts for Goldcorp are summarized below and are displayed at the Dundee Price Deck.

Income Statement



Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,633 1,420 1,330 1,271 1,237 1,223 1,250 1,282 1,668 1,413 1,248 1,327

Revenue 1,015.0 889.0 929.0 1,011.0 923.0 911.1 933.5 1,034.0 5,435.0 3,844.0 3,801.7 5,067.3

Operating Costs (503.0) (545.0) (532.0) (593.7) (554.6) (551.3) (560.5) (609.0) (2,337.0) (2,173.7) (2,275.3) (2,789.2)

Depreciation (150.0) (165.0) (163.0) (192.5) (204.6) (209.2) (212.9) (232.8) (675.0) (670.5) (859.5) (1,076.2)

G&A, Expl, Other (79.0) (75.0) (75.0) (76.0) (82.8) (82.8) (83.8) (83.8) (300.0) (305.0) (333.3) (324.0)

EBIT 283.0 104.0 159.0 148.8 81.1 67.8 76.3 108.4 2,123.0 694.8 333.5 877.9

Net Interest (10.0) (18.0) (12.0) (9.9) (10.1) (16.1) (16.1) (19.7) (30.0) (49.9) (62.0) (103.9)

Unusual/Other Items 49.0 (2,540.0) 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 112.0 (2,488.0) 0.0 0.0

Pretax Profit 322.0 (2,454.0) 150.0 138.9 70.9 51.6 60.2 88.7 2,205.0 (1,843.1) 271.5 774.0

Tax (50.0) 503.0 10.0 (48.6) (29.1) (21.2) (24.7) (36.4) (503.0) 414.4 (111.3) (294.1)

Other 37.0 17.0 (155.0) 40.7 29.2 31.7 36.2 40.7 47.0 (60.3) 137.7 184.4

Earnings reported 309.0 (1,934.0) 5.0 131.0 71.0 62.2 71.7 93.0 1,749.0 (1,489.0) 297.9 664.3

Earnings (Adjusted) 253.0 117.0 190.0 131.0 71.0 62.2 71.7 93.0 1,642.0 691.0 297.9 664.3

EPS Reported 0.38 (2.38) 0.01 0.16 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.11 2.16 (1.83) 0.37 0.82

EPS Adjusted 0.31 0.14 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.11 2.03 0.85 0.37 0.82




Cash Flow Statement



Earnings (adjusted) 253.0 117.0 190.0 131.0 71.0 62.2 71.7 93.0 1,642.0 691.0 297.9 664.3

Depreciation 150.0 165.0 163.0 192.5 204.6 209.2 212.9 232.8 675.0 670.5 859.5 1,076.2

Other (64.0) 63.0 59.0 29.0 (137.7) 30.9 (2.2) 16.9 91.0 87.0 (92.1) (110.5)

Operating Cash flow 339.0 345.0 412.0 352.5 137.8 302.3 282.4 342.8 2,408.0 1,448.5 1,065.4 1,630.0

Working Capital Changes (45.0) (265.0) (138.0) 75.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (311.0) (373.0) 0.0 0.0

Cash Flow from Operations 294.0 80.0 274.0 427.5 137.8 302.3 282.4 342.8 2,097.0 1,075.5 1,065.4 1,630.0

Capital Expenditure (479.0) (517.0) (541.0) (595.8) (623.9) (603.9) (567.5) (372.1) (2,521.0) (2,132.8) (2,167.3) (882.1)

Net Investments (599.0) (7.0) 460.0 (18.8) (18.8) 469.0 (18.8) (18.8) 235.0 (164.8) 412.7 440.7

Investing Cash Flow (1,078.0) (524.0) (81.0) (614.6) (642.6) (134.8) (586.3) (390.9) (2,286.0) (2,297.6) (1,754.6) (441.4)

Debt Additions 1,612.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,000.0 0.0 1,000.0 0.0 0.0 1,612.0 2,000.0 0.0

Debt Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 (38.0) (131.0) 0.0 (862.5) 0.0 0.0 (38.0) (993.5) 0.0

Equity Financing 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.0 3.0 0.0 0.0

Other Net Financing (122.0) (121.0) (122.0) (121.7) (121.7) (121.7) (121.7) (121.7) (438.0) (486.7) (486.9) (486.9)

Financing Cash Flow 1,490.0 (121.0) (119.0) (159.7) 747.3 (121.7) 15.8 (121.7) (394.0) 1,090.3 519.6 (486.9)

Foreign Exchange 0.0 1.0 (1.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash Increase 706.0 (564.0) 73.0 (346.8) 242.5 45.8 (288.1) (169.8) (583.0) (131.8) (169.7) 701.8

Cash Balance 1,463.0 899.0 972.0 625.2 867.6 913.4 625.3 455.5 918.0 625.2 455.5 1,157.2

Free Cash Flow 1,472.0 (172.0) (129.0) (281.3) 383.0 (301.5) (147.6) (29.3) (113.0) 889.7 (95.5) 748.0

CFPS (adjusted) 0.42 0.43 0.51 0.43 0.17 0.37 0.35 0.42 2.97 1.78 1.31 2.01


Balance Sheet



Current Assets 3,440.0 2,994.0 2,667.0 2,320.2 2,562.6 2,608.4 2,320.3 2,150.5 2,528.0 2,320.2 2,150.5 2,852.2

Other Assets 29,279.5 27,110.5 27,911.5 28,374.3 28,841.5 28,798.8 29,208.4 29,407.1 28,684.0 28,374.3 29,407.1 28,956.7

Total Assets 32,719.5 30,104.5 30,578.5 30,694.4 31,404.2 31,407.2 31,528.7 31,557.6 31,212.0 30,694.4 31,557.6 31,808.9

Current Liabilities 1,210.0 1,179.0 2,191.5 2,178.7 2,022.5 2,047.7 1,160.0 1,181.0 1,175.0 2,178.7 1,181.0 1,181.0

Long Term Debt 2,362.5 2,362.5 1,914.0 1,914.0 2,914.0 2,914.0 3,914.0 3,914.0 748.0 2,362.5 2,914.0 3,914.0




Shares (End of Period) (MM) 811.52 811.52 811.52 811.52 811.52 811.52 811.52 811.52 811.52 811.52 811.52 811.52





Operating Summary


Gold Production (koz)

Red Lake (100.0%), Canada (ON) 145.5 122.5 97.0 128.0 118.4 118.4 118.4 117.8 507.7 493.0 473.2 607.7

Musselwhite (100.0%), Canada (ON) 59.1 62.8 59.8 73.3 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.6 239.2 255.0 242.3 257.0

Porcupine (100.0%), Canada (ON) 67.2 69.8 76.0 79.0 74.8 74.8 74.8 74.8 262.8 292.0 299.1 286.7

El Sauzal (100.0%), Mexico 18.2 19.7 21.4 21.7 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 81.8 81.0 100.6 86.2

Camino Rojo HL (100.0%), Mexico - - - - - - - - - - - -

Marlin (100.0%), Guatemala 50.0 50.0 49.4 52.6 45.3 45.3 44.8 44.6 207.3 202.0 179.9 183.8

Penasquito (100.0%), Mexico 60.1 88.0 113.9 130.3 135.9 137.9 137.9 143.4 411.3 392.3 555.1 589.5

Los Filos (100.0%), Mexico 81.5 83.5 73.4 93.6 84.5 81.4 78.3 92.7 340.4 332.0 336.8 328.6

Eleonore (100.0%), Canada (QC) - - - - - - - 43.2 - - 43.2 271.2

Wharf (100.0%), US (SD) 12.5 16.2 16.7 10.6 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 68.1 56.0 60.3 63.8

Marigold (66.7%), US (NV) 31.7 22.5 25.2 28.6 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 96.3 108.0 99.7 125.9

El Morro (70.0%), Chile - - - - - - - - - - - -

Pueblo Viejo (40.0%), Dominican Republic 64.1 81.0 75.4 103.2 97.2 106.8 105.4 103.4 - 323.7 412.7 421.4

Alumbrera (37.5%), Argentina 24.7 29.9 28.9 34.4 31.3 29.8 31.8 32.7 136.6 117.9 125.6 110.2

Cerro Negro (100.0%), Argentina - - - - - - 54.3 74.9 - - 129.1 273.6

Adjustments/Other - 0.1 - - - - - - 44.7 0.1 - -

Equity Production 614.6 646.0 637.1 755.3 713.0 720.1 771.5 853.1 2,396.2 2,653.0 3,057.8 3,605.5

By-Product Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)

Red Lake (100.0%), Canada (ON) 476 523 640 613 532 527 526 529 495 556 528 561

Musselwhite (100.0%), Canada (ON) 841 786 768 816 730 720 716 713 758 803 720 674

Porcupine (100.0%), Canada (ON) 797 782 637 790 622 614 610 607 773 750 613 633

El Sauzal (100.0%), Mexico 946 890 751 780 698 698 702 706 689 837 701 823


Marlin (100.0%), Guatemala 102 260 295 193 219 245 236 224 (77) 212 231 203

Penasquito (100.0%), Mexico 611 920 403 87 362 373 455 489 (414) 446 420 174

Los Filos (100.0%), Mexico 589 624 640 631 731 732 736 740 551 621 735 822

Eleonore (100.0%), Canada (QC) - - - - - - - - - - - 544

Wharf (100.0%), US (SD) 836 808 980 998 868 870 872 874 665 901 871 832

Marigold (66.7%), US (NV) 854 901 938 1,084 1,034 1,033 1,035 1,037 775 944 1,035 852

El Morro (70.0%), Chile - - - - - - - - - - - -

Pueblo Viejo (40.0%), Dominican Republic 472 507 553 473 492 469 434 412 - 500 451 348

Alumbrera (37.5%), Argentina 14 299 (281) (227) (23) (86) (63) (109) (678) (56) (71) (161)

Cerro Negro (100.0%), Argentina - - - - - - - 468 - - 271 405

Total Cash Costs 565 646 551 504 530 525 534 557 304 564 537 495

Co-Product Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)

Red Lake (100.0%), Canada (ON) 476 523 640 613 532 527 526 529 495 556 528 561

Musselwhite (100.0%), Canada (ON) 841 786 768 816 730 720 716 713 758 803 720 674

Porcupine (100.0%), Canada (ON) 797 782 637 790 622 614 610 607 773 750 613 633

El Sauzal (100.0%), Mexico 946 890 751 780 698 698 702 706 689 837 701 823


Marlin (100.0%), Guatemala 641 599 603 592 590 596 602 607 593 609 599 602

Penasquito (100.0%), Mexico 1,128 998 843 814 865 859 906 931 684 912 891 892

Los Filos (100.0%), Mexico 589 624 640 631 731 732 736 740 551 621 735 822

Eleonore (100.0%), Canada (QC) - - - - - - - - - - - 544

Wharf (100.0%), US (SD) 836 808 980 998 868 870 872 874 665 901 871 832

Marigold (66.7%), US (NV) 854 901 938 1,084 1,034 1,033 1,035 1,037 775 944 1,035 852

El Morro (70.0%), Chile - - - - - - - - - - - -

Pueblo Viejo (40.0%), Dominican Republic 470 531 576 518 552 533 513 514 - 525 527 455

Alumbrera (37.5%), Argentina 915 907 777 780 820 802 821 829 543 840 818 880

Cerro Negro (100.0%), Argentina - - - - - - - 579 - - 336 561

Total Cash Costs 710 713 709 709 695 686 694 725 639 710 701 696

Capex ($MM) 479.0 517.0 541.0 595.8 623.9 603.9 567.5 372.1 2,521.0 2,132.8 2,167.3 882.1




Key Assets

Red Lake (100% ownership; 7% of NAV; Ontario)


Milestones: Producing asset with a >60yr mine life; Increasing production from Cochenour deposit production (4Q14).

Opportunities: Exploration at NXT zone; High grade zone remains open down dip.

Risks: Declining grade profile; Ground stability at depth; Cochenour development risks.

The Red Lake mine is located 180 km north of Dryden, Ontario and consists of the Campbell and Red Lake underground mines as well as the Cochenour development project. Prospecting in the Red Lake district dates back to 1887, with approximately 9.17 MMoz grading 27.4 g/t produced since 1948. Goldcorp acquired the Campbell deposit from Barrick upon Barrick's acquisition of Placer Dome Inc. in 2006, and subsequently consolidated the Red Lake Gold mines in 2007. In September 2008, Goldcorp acquired the Gold Eagle property for $1.5B, which hosts the current Cochenour deposit.

The Red Lake mine supports one of the highest grade deposits in the world. The "High Grade Zone" has current reserves of 1.2 MMoz at 35.2 g/t, and an opportunity to extend the deposit at depth remains. In 2012, adverse ground conditions in the High Grade Zone caused by stresses in the deeper levels of the mine delayed access to planned high grade stopes. De-stress work was completed in 3Q12, allowing for the improvement of High Grade Zone mining rates in 4Q12.

Several types of ore exist on site, including silica replaced carbonate veins with free milling gold, and siliceous replacement-type mineralization (rich with arsenopyrite) marginal to veins. Underground mining is conducted via long hole mechanized underhand and overhand cut and fill techniques. The operation is supported by two mill processing facilities, providing a total milling capacity of 3,100tpd. Current mill feel consists of 60% Campbell ore and 40% Red Lake ore. Current reserves of 3.2 MMoz at 9.57 g/t support an 8 year mine life, while the opportunity exists to extend the mine life beyond 2018 from exploration opportunities and resource extension. 2014 guidance at Red Lake is 440-480 koz.

Recent focus has been on the development of the Cochenour deposit, with initial production forecast for 4Q14. A 5km haulage drift will connect the Cochenour shaft with the Red Lake Complex on the 5,400 ft level (1,645m), with 86% completed to date (expected to be completed in 1Q14). Initial capex is for $496MM (reduced from prev. $540MM), with $290MM spent to date. Cochenour has inferred resources of 3.25MMoz at 11.18 g/t, and is expected to deliver 225-250 koz annually, replacing Campbell material currently being processed.



Pueblo Viejo (40% ownership; 16% of NAV; Dominican Republic)


Milestones: Commercial production (Delivered - 1Q13); Power plant commissioning (Delivered - 3Q13); Revised fiscal stability agreement (Delivered - 3Q13); Full capacity ramp up (1H14).

Opportunities: World class development project with substantial free cash flow in early years; Improving silver recoveries and throughput rates.

Risks: Tailings dam permitting; Achievement of 24 ktpd target processing rate; Complex, but well understood metallurgy; Sulfur content and the impact of silver recoveries; Geopolitical uncertainty.

Pueblo Viejo is located in central Dominican Republic, 100km northwest of its capital city Santo Domingo. The project is a joint venture between Barrick (60% ownership, operator) and Goldcorp (40% ownership). Goldcorp acquired its 40% interest when Barrick acquired Placer Dome Inc. and subsequently sold a 40% stake to Goldcorp. The deposit consists of high sulphidation or acid sulphate epithermal gold, silver, copper, and zinc mineralization. Open pit operations are conducted in two pits (Monte Negro and Moore) with gold and silver recovered through pressure oxidation followed by cyanidation of gold and silver in a CIL circuit. The processing plant has a nameplate capacity of 24,000tpd with ore processed via four autoclaves followed by a CIL circuit.

Construction began in 2H08, with first gold pour achieved in August 2012 and commercial production reached in January 2013. Final initial capex was $3.7B (vs. March 2011 FS estimate of $3.0B). During startup, autoclave modifications were required to treat higher than expected sulfur levels, delaying commercial production timelines. Ramp up continues at the mine, with throughput levels expected to reach designed capacity in 1H14. Pueblo Viejo has a projected mine life of +22 years based on its current reserves of 25 MMoz at 2.83 g/t. Consolidated 2014 production is guided for 1.01-1.05 MMoz.

On March 13, 2013, customs authorities in the Dominican Republic prevented shipment of the mine's gold and silver produced for export in order to renegotiate fiscal terms for the mine. Following several months of negotiations, in September 2013 the Government of Dominican Republic and Barrick Gold Corp. signed an agreement allowing the government to receive 51.3% of the total gross revenue, compared to the 37.1% the state would receive under the previous agreement.



Penasquito (100% ownership; 26% of NAV; Mexico)


Milestones: Updated mine plan (Delivered - 1Q14); Water supply increase (2014); Crushing and agglomeration expansion (end 2013); Improved power costs (power plant supply in 2015)

Opportunities: LOM improvements increase near term cash flow; Potential for improvement in economics from pyrite and copper concentrate production; Higher grade opportunity in skarn mineralization and underground mining.

Risks: Mexican fiscal revisions; Contested ejido surface right agreements; Water supply.

Penasquito is considered Mexico's largest gold producing mine, with 2013 production achieved of 404 koz. Goldcorp acquired its 100% ownership at Penasquito in 2006 through its merger with Glamis Gold. Construction began in 2007, with initial heap leach production in February 2008 and plant processing in September 2009. Heap leach operations produce Au/Ag dore bars, while the sulphide circuit produces both lead and zinc concentrates. Royal Gold has a 2% NSR on the property, and Silver Wheaton has a silver royalty stream to purchase 25% of Penasquito's silver production for a per ounce cash payment of $4.02/oz, subject to inflation. Penasquito has a projected 13 year mine life based on current reserves of 11.6 MMoz Au at 0.59 g/t. 2014 guidance is for 530-560 koz.

In 2012, production at Penasquito was impacted by lower mill throughput, a result of inadequate water supply associated with prolonged drought conditions in the region. Studies were completed in 1H13, and the opportunity exists to add an additional water source to ramp-up to throughput. Current 2014 throughput guidance of 110 ktpd is pending water improvements. The additional water source, the North Well Field, has a development capex of $150MM, with construction currently underway.

In January 2014, Goldcorp completed a comprehensive operating review at Penasquito and issued a revised life of mine plan, reflecting higher op costs, new Mexican tax changes, and lower commodity prices. The mine life was substantially decreased, from 19 years to 13 years, reflecting lower stripping. However, considerably higher grades were incorporated into mine design (+47% Au / +59% Ag), supporting higher near term cash flows. Throughput expectations over a 5-year period are now expected to be 110,000 - 115,000 tpd, down from an expectation to return to design rates of 130,000 tpd once water improvements were complete. An additional opportunity to produce two additional concentrates, copper and



pyrite, is being evaluated, which have the potential to improve mine economics, while deeper skarn mineralization continues to be an exploration focus.

Surface rights for the Chile Colorado and Penasco Azul open pits (source of Penasquito production) are held by private individuals and three ejidos. In 2009, the Cerro Gordo Ejido commenced an action against Goldcorp in Mexico's agrarian courts challenging the land use agreement signed in 2005. In June 2013, the court ruled the land use agreement was null and ordered the land to be returned to the Cerro Gordo Ejido for payment of 2.4 million pesos. Three separate claims are currently ongoing which have resulted in the suspension of the agrarian court's ruling pending final determination of the Cedros Ejido's claim following appeal. The disputed ejido land accounts for a significant portion of Penasquito’s Penasco pit and is material to the operation. Failure to reach an agreement or inability to access this portion of the mine would have negative consequences to Penasquito output. To date, operations have not been affected.

Cerro Negro (100% ownership; 9% of NAV; Argentina)


Milestones: Initial production (Mid-2014).

Opportunities: Highly prospective exploration upside, but reduced focus on exploration.

Risks: Argentina FX rates, capital cost escalation; Potential Santa Cruz state reserve tax; Development/technical risk.

Cerro Negro is located in the province of Santa Cruz, Argentina. Goldcorp acquired its 100% ownership in 2010 through its $3.6B acquisition of Andean Minerals. Mineralization was first documented at the deposit in 1992, which currently contains 10 identified prospects. The deposit is associated with low-sulphidation, epithermal gold/silver hosted within quartz veins and stockworks. Cerro Negro will use underground transverse stoping mining methods with backfill, and ore will be processed using conventional leaching methods. Based on expected throughput of 4,000 tonnes per day, annual gold production in the first five years of full production is expected to average 525,000 ounces. Current reserves are 5.74 MMoz at 9.43 g/t.

Construction began in late 2011 and with initial capex of $750MM (April 2011 FS estimate), the mine was initially expected to reach production in 2H13. However, due to permitting delays, in-country inflation of 25-30%, labour and contractor issues, initial capex has been



increased to $1.6-$1.8B with initial production expected in mid-2014 (prev. 1Q14). Commercial production is expected to be achieved in 4Q14, with 2014 production guidance of 130-180 koz. To date, Goldcorp has spent $1.3B on project development. Significant exploration upside exists at Cerro Negro, however with the uncertainty over a 1% "reserve" tax in the Santa Cruz province and increasing in-country costs, Goldcorp has halted all exploration activities.

Eléonore (100% ownership; 9% of NAV; Quebec)


Milestones: Initial production (4Q14); Ramp-up to 7,000 tpd (2018).

Opportunities: -

Risks: Stale operating cost guidance; Development risk, capital cost inflation; Potential fiscal revisions in Quebec.

Eléonore is located in the James Bay region in northern Quebec. The project was purchased by Goldcorp in 2006 from Virginia Gold Mines for $420MM. Mineralization is found within quartz-tourmaline-arsenopyrite stockwork veins and veinlets contained within replacement zones. The deposit has a 2.5% NSR payable to Virginia mines on the first 3 MMoz produced, increasing by 0.25% per 1MMoz thereafter with cap of 3.5%. As at January 2014, capital has increased to $1.8-$1.9B, up from prior $1.75B estimate, with $570MM to be spent in 2014. The underground operation will be mined using long-hope stoping methods with consolidated backfill, while transverse stoping could be used where mineralization widens. Initial production based on nominal hoist capacity of 3,500 tpd, increasing to 7,000tpd in 2018 with the addition of a second production shaft. Eléonore is on target for first production in late-2014, with development proceeding on schedule. At a 7,000tpd capacity rate, Eléonore is expected to produce 600 koz annually. Current reserves are 3.3 MMoz at 7.56 g/t.



Other Properties

Marlin (100% ownership; 6% NAV; Guatemala)

Reserves (100%): 1.0 MMoz Au at 4.18 g/t, and 45.08 MMoz Ag at 188.56 g/t

Details/Catalysts: Marlin is a high margin underground operation which has been in production since late 2005.

Although the reserve life is 5 years, exploration success has the potential to extend the life of

the operation, including the development of the high grade Delmy vein.

Los Filos (100% ownership; 5% NAV; Mexico)


Details/Catalysts: Los Filos has been in production since 2007, with the operation consisting of two open pit

mines and one small underground mine. In recent years, reserves have increased

considerably and the company is evaluating an expansion at the project.

Porcupine (100% ownership; 5% NAV; Ontario)


Details/Catalysts: Porcupine consists of the Hoyle Pond and Dome underground mines, several large tonnage

stockpiles, and a central milling facility. Goldcorp's recent focus has been on the potential

development of the higher grade Hollinger open pit, which is expected to begin production in

2014.

Musselwhite (100% ownership; 6% NAV; Ontario)


Details/Catalysts: Musselwhite is an underground operation that has been in production since April 1997. The

discovery of the Lynx Zone in 2010 has the potential to improve project economics and extend

mine life.

Marigold (67% ownership; 1% NAV; Nevada)


Details/Catalysts: Round Mountain is a conventional open pit, heap leach operation than is jointly owned by

Barrick (33%) and Goldcorp (67%). Goldcorp is currently working with its partner to optimize

the mine plan, and may potentially seek divestiture of the asset.

Wharf (100% ownership; 1% NAV; South Dakota)


Details/Catalysts: The Wharf operation is an open pit, heap leach operation with a 7-year mine life based on its

current reserves. Goldcorp has had historical success in extending the mine's life through its

exploration programs.

El Sauzal (100% ownership; <1% NAV; Mexico)


Details/Catalysts: El Sauzal is an open pit operation with enough reserves to support an additional 4 years of

operations. Exploration efforts are focused on identifying new gold reserves to extend the

mine life.

Camino Rojo (100% ownership; 2% NAV; Mexico)

Reserves (100%): 1.63 MMoz Au at 0.76 g/t, and 32.07 MMoz Ag at 14.94 g/t

Details/Catalysts: Camino Rojo is a gold/silver development project near Goldcorp's Penasquito mine. Goldcorp

acquired the asset through its acquisition of Canplats in 2010. Current oxide reserves support

a heap leach operation, while a large scale sulphide operation is currently being evaluated.



Noche Buena (100% ownership; <1% NAV; Mexico)

Reserves (100%): n/a

Details/Catalysts: The Noche Buena project is located 5km north of Goldcorp's Penasquito mine. An internal

study completed in 3Q12 indicated the project currently does not reach the economic

requirements of the company. Goldcorp continues to assess the study findings in more detail.

Alumbrera (37.5% ownership; 2% NAV; Argentina)

Reserves (100%): 2.48 MMoz Au at 0.35 g/t, and 1.72 Blbs at 0.36% Cu

Details/Catalysts: Alumbrera is an open pit gold-copper mine that has been in production since 1998, and is a JV

operation between Xstrata (50%), Goldcorp (37.5%), and Yamana (12.5%). While the

operation remains a low cash cost operation, productivity is expected to decline during its

remaining 4 years of operations.

Agua Rica (37.5% ownership; <1% NAV; Argentina)

Reserves (100%): N/A

Details/Catalysts: Agua Rica is a Cu-Au-Mo-Ag deposit is located in northwestern Argentina and is owned by the

same JV as Alumbrera. An agreement was signed in 2011 allowing the JV within a four year

period to acquire Yamana's interest in the Agua Rica project for cumulative payments made

by Goldcorp and Xstrata of $110 million. A FS was completed in 3Q13, indicating the need for

additional studies to be undertaken prior to Goldcorp making further investments in the

project.

El Morro (70% ownership; 2% NAV; Chile)

Reserves (100%): 9.61 MMoz Au at 0.47 g/t and 6.9B lbs Cu at 0.49%

Details/Catalysts: El Morro is a gold-copper development project with initial capex of $3.9B and is expected to

produce 90 koz gold and 85 MMlbs copper annually at by-product total cash costs of -$700/oz

over an estimated mine life of 17 years. In November 2013, the Chilean government froze the

El Morro environmental permit pending appeal. Currently, project field work has been

suspended, while activities including, detailed engineering, design work and planning continue.

Advancement of El Morro remains a low priority for project operator Goldcorp and the

company has no formal plans to develop the asset at this time.

Cerro Blanco (100% ownership; <1% NAV; Guatemala)

Reserves (100%): N/A

Details/Catalysts: Cerro Blanco is a high grade gold/silver deposit in SW Guatemala. Due to declining metal

prices, Goldcorp has indefinitely suspended work at Cerro Blanco.



Risks


Goldcorp valuation is dependent upon the price of gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead. Our outlook for these commodities is positive, but price declines would be expected to impact the valuation of Goldcorp' assets and could affect development decisions. We estimate G’s NAV would change by 41% for a 10% change in the price of gold and silver, assuming other inputs remain fixed. This leverage is lower than the average of 47% for our coverage universe.



Country Risk - Medium

Goldcorp operates in Canada, the United States, Mexico, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and Chile; each of which has its own legislative bodies and laws. A change in government will always pose a risk. In addition, Goldcorp is vulnerable to potential geopolitical and social unrest which could impact production targets and operating costs.

In November 2013, a new tax bill was approved in Mexico by the Senate, and is expected to have a January 1, 2014 effective date. The tax bill includes a mining royalty rate of 7.5% of EBITDA and 0.5% of revenues for gold, silver, and platinum projects, a 10% tax on dividends paid by Mexican entities to foreign corporations, and no planned corporate tax reduction from the current 30%. While we currently incorporate the new tax bill in our estimates, any additional changes to Mexican taxes and royalty rates could impact our valuation.

In Chile, newly elected president Michelle Bachelet intends to increase corporate income tax rates from 20% to 25%. Higher taxes would have a material impact on Chile’s mining industry, which has experienced significant increases in labour, supply and power costs. While we currently do not incorporate development of El Morro in our estimates, an increase in taxes would be expected to impact project economics.

In Argentina, fiscal controls have impacted the ability to source equipment internationally and engage in foreign exchange transactions. Additionally, in September 2013, Argentina's federal Income Tax Statute was amended to include a 10% income tax withholding on dividend distributions by Argentine corporations. The inclusion of recent tax amendments could have an impact on project economics and cash distributions at Goldcorp's Cerro Negro and Alumbrera operations in Argentina.

-

0.40

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1000 1150 1300 1450

2014E

CF

PS

(U

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h)

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S (

US

$/s

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Gold Price (US$/oz)

NAVPS 2014E CFPS



Permitting Risk - High

Exploration activities, project development, and mineral exploitation require permitting approval from respective legislative bodies (federal, provincial/state, municipal) in United States, Russia, Mauritania, Chile, Brazil, and Ghana. While multiple permits are necessary to achieve production status, a key hurdle surrounds the approval of a project's Environment Impact Assessment (EIA/EIS). Receipt of any permits cannot be guaranteed, while respective legislative bodies reserve the power to halt and potentially revoke permits.

In Mexico, local community landowners at Penasquito's have challenged a land use agreement signed in 2005. In June 2013, the court ruled the land use agreement was null and ordered the land to be returned to the local landowners, while this decision has since been suspended and a ruling and appeal are pending. Failure to reach an agreement or inability to access portions of the Penasquito mine would have negative consequences to output.

Currency Risk - Low

Goldcorp's costs and capital expenditures are exposed to the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar, the Australian dollar, the Mexican Peso, the Chilean Peso, the Argentine Peso. We note that future volatility in exchange rates may result in material changes to our valuation. Currently, Goldcorp remains unhedged to gold prices and currency exchange rates. Goldcorp currently streams 25% of Penasquito's silver production to Silver Wheaton for a per ounce cash payment of $4.02/oz, subject to inflation.

Technical Risk - Medium

Reserves, resources and anticipated additions are estimates based on the best available information. Variances from these estimates, in particular continuity, grades and recoveries, could negatively impact the valuation of projects. Input commodity prices may impact reserve and resource calculations, as a lower gold price assumption could decrease a company's year-over-year mineable inventory (excluding depletion). Goldcorp is expecting to utilize a $1,300/oz gold price for its 2013 year-end reserve calculation ($1,350/oz in 2012).

Development Risk - High

Goldcorp is currently developing three projects: Cochenour, Eleonore, and Cerro Negro. Start-up projects are exposed to the risk of over-expenditure. Our parameter assumptions are subject to significant uncertainty. Operating, geological or metallurgical parameters may differ from expectations. Changes to environmental protection laws and regulations could affect the company’s operations.


Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T: C$5.22), (KGC-N: US$4.74) January 21, 2014

BUY, High Risk




Improving Credibility As Turnaround Progressing; Initiating With a BUY

We are initiating coverage of Kinross Gold with a BUY rating and 12-month C$6.50 price target, based on a blend of 1.1x our NAV5% at a long term gold price of $1,325/oz and 10x our 2014E-15E cash flow estimate.

Rebuilding Confidence with Operating Excellence

While historically a growth-oriented company and praised by investors, in recent years, a series of failed aggressive acquisitions and growth which did not materialize impacted Kinross' credibility. Kinross perhaps faces the most disheartening multi-year backwards-looking strategy, but a new management team in place and progress with Kinross' Way Forward initiatives has dramatically improved corporate credibility. As an early mover to focus in-house on operations, Kinross has perhaps demonstrated the greatest improvement in operating performance amongst its peers. We anticipate Kinross' next challenge will be its ability to sustain production longer term, where we forecast the company will face declining production in ~2017, should development opportunities be restrained or exploration success fail to materialize.

Polishing A Tarnished Portfolio and Tarnished Valuation

When comparing Kinross to its North American senior producer peers, Barrick and Goldcorp, the company undeniably has higher cost operating assets and is exposed to higher geopolitical risks. Despite these shortfalls, the company is expected to generate high free cash flow near term, as Kinross has no growth capital investments and cost savings initiatives are steadily progressing. Arguably, Kinross has already implemented required difficult decisions, including dividend suspension, mine closure (La Coipa), and recognition of potential further rationalization of assets (Maricunga). While investors may lament Kinross' negligible catalysts and flat near term production, delivery risk for the company is the lowest as well (1% of our NAV is contributed by non-producing assets). Our expectation towards Kinross' upcoming Tasiast expansion feasibility in 1H14 remains conservative, although we highlight opportunities remain for value creation on the exploration and development front, particularly in Russia and in Chile.

Operating Risks at Lower Gold Prices, but Financial Strength Sustained

As of 3Q13, Kinross reported $2.1B in total short and long term debt, while the company holds $932MM in cash. Given decreasing capital spending forecasts going forward, Kinross is expected to maintain a healthy level of financial liquidity. We estimate the company can maintain healthy liquidity over a 3-year outlook, absent gold prices decreasing to $1,100/oz. Kinross' higher cost assets expose the company to mine plan changes and reserve re-estimation, although we note the company's reserves utilize a conservative $1,200/oz for calculation.

K: Price/Volume Chart

Source: Factset

Company Description Kinross is a senior gold producer with assets in the United States, Russia, Mauritania, Chile, Brazil, and Ghana. 2013 production is for 2.6-2.65 MMGEO at total cash costs of $740-790/oz. Current attributable reserves are 59.60 MMoz grading 0.73 g/t.

Recommendation

Rating: BUY

Target: C$6.50

Risk: High

2013 EPS

2014 EPS

Company Data

Price (01/17/14): C$5.22

52-Week Range: C$4.50-9.88







Cash ($MM): US$932

Debt ($MM): US$2,140

Working Capital ($MM): US$2,017


NAV LT Gold Price:

Price Deck:

Spot Gold:

EPS 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E

Q1 0.18 A 0.15 A 0.02 E

Q2 0.14 A 0.10 A 0.04 E

Q3 0.22 A 0.05 A 0.06 E

Q4 0.24 A 0.02 E 0.07 E

FY 0.77 A 0.33 E 0.19 E

P/E 6.2x 14.6x 24.5x

CFPS 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E

FY 0.97 A 0.77 E 0.77 E

P/CF 4.9x 6.1x 6.2x



0.33

0.19

New

US$/sh

3.57

2.69

P/NAV

1,143.3

1,203.4

0.0%

6,853

1.33x

1.77x

$1,325/oz

$1,254/oz

Ap r-1 2 O c t-1 2 Ap r-1 3 O c t-1 3

5

6

7

8

9

1 0

1 1

1 2

0

2 0

K i n r o s s G o l d C o r p o r a t i o n (K -C A)


Vo lu m e K in ros s G o ld C o rp o ra tio n





Kinross Gold Corp.: Forecasts at Dundee Price DeckRating BUY Basic Shares (MM) 1143.3 Dundee Capital Markets






Equity GEO Production (koz) 2,633.7 2,649.5 2,610.2 2,613.5 2,619.9 Assets

Kupol / Dvoinoye 578.3 569.3 695.8 670.2 645.4 Cash 1,632.9 745.0 760.1 1,024.9 1,144.0

Tasiast 185.3 248.8 261.2 306.4 330.0 Other Current Assets 1,967.9 1,789.2 1,789.2 1,789.2 1,789.2

Maricunga 236.4 194.3 234.9 237.8 237.8 Current Assets 3,600.8 2,534.2 2,549.3 2,814.1 2,933.2

La Coipa / Pompeya 178.9 159.6 - - - Non-current Assets 11,281.6 8,514.5 8,618.8 8,627.6 8,616.4

Paracatu 466.7 506.3 529.6 538.3 552.1 Total Assets 14,882.4 11,048.7 11,168.1 11,441.7 11,549.6

Buckhorn - Kettle River 156.1 151.2 91.3 23.3 - Liabilities

Fort Knox 360.0 421.6 382.5 382.9 405.8 Current Liabilities 1,306.2 704.1 704.1 914.1 1,644.1

Round Mountain 192.3 153.8 142.8 177.1 188.4 Long Term Debt 2,116.4 2,080.0 2,020.0 1,750.0 750.0

Chirano 263.9 244.6 272.0 277.4 260.4 Other non-current Liabilities 1,609.6 1,475.9 1,401.7 1,337.2 1,288.7

Total Cash Costs (Co-Prod) (US$/oz) 706 733 722 708 730 Total Liabilities 5,032.2 4,260.0 4,125.8 4,001.3 3,682.8

Kupol / Dvoinoye 472 526 551 573 635 Total Shareholder Equity 9,850.2 6,788.6 7,042.3 7,440.5 7,866.8

Tasiast 888 1,002 877 775 737

Maricunga 785 1,134 965 945 949 INCOME STATEMENT

La Coipa / Pompeya 953 744 - - - US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Paracatu 881 825 845 843 848 Total Revenue 4,311.4 3,756.7 3,295.7 3,510.0 3,523.0

Buckhorn - Kettle River 480 555 800 867 - % Gold 93% 95% 97% 97% 97%

Fort Knox 655 564 553 542 593 % Silver 7% 5% 3% 3% 3%

Round Mountain 718 823 846 750 717 % Copper 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Chirano 721 753 653 656 704 % Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Total Cash Costs (By-Prod) (US$/oz) 627 694 700 687 711 Operating Costs 1,850.8 1,958.9 1,889.5 1,862.2 1,926.0

G&A 179.1 167.5 166.0 167.3 167.6

GOLD RESERVES AND RESOURCES Exploration 234.9 159.1 108.0 108.0 108.3

Category 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Depreciation 681.2 829.9 700.8 689.7 659.7

Proven and Probable Other 84.4 95.5 50.0 90.0 38.5

Tonnes (MM) 2555.7 2610.5 2711.0 2737.4 2655.9 EBITDA 1,962.2 1,375.7 1,082.2 1,282.5 1,282.6

Grade (g/t) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 EBIT 1,281.0 545.7 381.4 592.9 622.9

Oz (MM) 46.6 45.6 51.0 62.4 62.6 Net Interest Expense 19.5 26.1 15.7 10.0 (0.1)

Assumed reserve additions (MMoz) 1.8 Unusual/Other Items (3,586.1) (2,732.0) (31.4) (20.1) 0.3

LOM Production (Mmoz) 32.4 EBT (2,285.6) (2,160.2) 365.7 582.8 623.0

Measured, Indicated, & Inferred (excl.) Taxes 261.5 87.1 128.0 204.0 218.1

Oz (MM) 18.0 34.4 32.9 41.8 45.5 Minority Interest (4.8) 1.4 10.0 12.7 12.1

Reserve and Resource Statistics Other 37.4 (729.8) (6.0) - -

Reserves/sh (x1,000) 74.1 66.0 61.9 55.0 54.9 Net Income (Reported) (2,504.9) (2,978.5) 221.7 366.2 392.9

Reserves & resources/sh (x1,000) 102.8 115.7 101.8 91.7 94.9 Net Income (Adjusted) 879.2 371.8 221.7 366.2 392.9

Current Per Ounce Statistics

Adj. EV / LOM Prod (US$/oz) 432 EV/Resource (US$/oz) 71 EPS (Reported) ($/sh) (2.20) (2.61) 0.19 0.32 0.34

Total Acquisition Cost (US$/oz) 1209 EV/Reserve (US$/oz) 112 EPS (Adjusted) ($/sh) 0.77 0.33 0.19 0.32 0.34

Average shares (MM) 1,138.8 1,142.1 1,143.3 1,143.3 1,143.3


Asset NAV /Share % NAV % Resrv CASH FLOW STATEMENT

North America 916 0.80 16% 12% US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Russia 1,578 1.38 28% 9% Net Income (Reported) (2,504.9) (2,978.5) 221.7 366.2 392.9

South America 1,793 1.57 32% 55% Depreciation 681.2 829.9 700.8 689.7 659.7

Africa 1,329 1.16 24% 24% Other 2,932.5 3,032.6 (42.2) (32.5) (15.0)

Gold Exploration Properties 50 0.04 1% 0% Operating Cash Flow 1,108.8 884.1 880.2 1,023.3 1,037.6

Other 7 0.01 -1% 0% Operating Cash Flow ($/sh) 0.97 0.77 0.77 0.90 0.91

Total Mining and Investment Assets 5,674 4.96 100% 100% Working Capital Changes 146.5 (78.9) - - -

Balance Sheet Items & Expenditures -1,588 -1.39 Cash from Operations 1,255.3 805.2 880.2 1,023.3 1,037.6

Total 4,086 3.57 Capital Expenditure (1,924.7) (1,329.7) (805.1) (698.5) (648.5)


NAV BY ASSET GOLD RESERVES BY ASSET Investing Cash Flow (2,163.0) (1,052.8) (805.1) (698.5) (648.5)

Common Share Dividends 182.5 91.5 - - -

Debt Additions 1,541.1 - - - -

Debt Repayments (577.3) (523.3) (60.0) (60.0) (270.0)


Other Net Financing (196.0) (96.9) - - -

Financing Cash Flow 774.2 (614.0) (60.0) (60.0) (270.0)


Change In Cash (133.1) (887.7) 15.1 264.8 119.1

Cash Balance 1,632.9 745.0 760.1 1,024.9 1,144.0

Free Cash Flow 147.9 (968.9) 15.1 264.8 119.1

Adj. Free Cash Flow (1) (669.4) (524.5) 75.1 324.8 389.1

VALUATION DATA


P/E 6.2x 14.6x 24.5x 14.9x 13.9x

P/CF 4.9x 6.1x 6.2x 5.3x 5.2x

EV/EBITDA 3.4x 4.8x 6.1x 5.2x 5.2x

Adj. FCF Yield (1) (12.3%) (6.7%) 1.1% 4.9% 5.9%

INPUT PRICES

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Key Commodities

Gold (US$/oz) 1,668 1,413 1,248 1,327 1,330

Silver (US$/oz) 31.13 23.91 20.80 22.12 22.17

Copper (US$/lb) 3.61 3.33 3.30 3.50 3.50

Zinc (US$/lb) 0.88 0.87 0.90 1.00 1.00

Oil (US$/bbl) 94 98 100 103 104

Key Currencies

CAD/USD 1.00 0.97 0.91 0.89 0.93

USD/RUB 31.03 31.82 33.45 34.54 32.80

USD/BRL 1.95 2.15 2.30 2.35 2.35

USD/CLP 486 495 500 510 520



12%

9%

55%

24%0%0%

North America Russia

South America Africa

Gold Exploration Properties Other

16%

28%

32%

24%

1%-1%




200

350

500

650

800

950

1,100

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2010A 2012A 2014E 2016E 2018E 2020E

Tota

l C

ash C

osts

(U

S$/o

z)

Gold

Pro

duction (

koz)

Kupol / Dvoinoye Tasiast Chirano

Maricunga La Coipa / Pompeya Paracatu

Buckhorn - Kettle River Fort Knox Round Mountain

Total Cash Costs (Co-product) Total Cash Costs (By-product)



Kinross Gold Corp.: Forecasts at Spot GoldRating BUY Basic Shares (MM) 1143.3 Dundee Capital Markets






Equity GEO Production (koz) 2,633.7 2,649.5 2,607.8 2,611.4 2,617.8 Assets

Kupol / Dvoinoye 578.3 569.3 693.5 668.2 643.4 Cash 1,632.9 745.0 768.9 900.3 879.6

Tasiast 185.3 248.8 261.2 306.4 330.0 Other Current Assets 1,967.9 1,789.2 1,789.2 1,789.2 1,789.2

Maricunga 236.4 194.3 234.9 237.8 237.8 Current Assets 3,600.8 2,534.2 2,558.1 2,689.5 2,668.8

La Coipa / Pompeya 178.9 159.6 - - - Non-current Assets 11,281.6 8,514.5 8,619.6 8,629.0 8,617.9

Paracatu 466.7 506.3 529.6 538.3 552.1 Total Assets 14,882.4 11,048.7 11,177.7 11,318.4 11,286.7

Buckhorn - Kettle River 156.1 151.2 91.3 23.3 - Liabilities

Fort Knox 360.0 421.6 382.5 382.9 405.8 Current Liabilities 1,306.2 704.1 704.1 914.1 1,644.1

Round Mountain 192.3 153.8 142.8 177.1 188.4 Long Term Debt 2,116.4 2,080.0 2,020.0 1,750.0 750.0

Chirano 263.9 244.6 272.0 277.4 260.4 Other non-current Liabilities 1,609.6 1,475.9 1,403.0 1,326.1 1,264.7

Total Cash Costs (Co-Prod) (US$/oz) 706 733 722 706 727 Total Liabilities 5,032.2 4,260.0 4,127.1 3,990.2 3,658.8

Kupol / Dvoinoye 472 526 553 570 632 Total Shareholder Equity 9,850.2 6,788.6 7,050.5 7,328.2 7,627.9

Tasiast 888 1,002 878 771 733

Maricunga 785 1,134 966 944 947 INCOME STATEMENT

La Coipa / Pompeya 953 744 - - - US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Paracatu 881 825 846 841 846 Total Revenue 4,311.4 3,756.7 3,308.1 3,313.4 3,319.0

Buckhorn - Kettle River 480 555 800 867 - % Gold 93% 95% 97% 97% 97%

Fort Knox 655 564 553 539 590 % Silver 7% 5% 3% 3% 3%

Round Mountain 718 823 846 750 717 % Copper 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Chirano 721 753 653 653 700 % Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Total Cash Costs (By-Prod) (US$/oz) 627 694 701 688 711 Operating Costs 1,850.8 1,958.9 1,889.9 1,854.5 1,918.1

G&A 179.1 167.5 166.0 167.3 167.6

GOLD RESERVES AND RESOURCES Exploration 234.9 159.1 108.0 108.0 108.3

Category 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Depreciation 681.2 829.9 700.0 689.0 659.3

Proven and Probable Other 84.4 95.5 50.0 90.0 38.4

Tonnes (MM) 2555.7 2610.5 2711.0 2737.4 2655.9 EBITDA 1,962.2 1,375.7 1,094.3 1,093.6 1,086.8

Grade (g/t) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 EBIT 1,281.0 545.7 394.2 404.6 427.4


Assumed reserve additions (MMoz) 1.8 Unusual/Other Items (3,586.1) (2,732.0) (31.3) (20.9) (5.0)

LOM Production (Mmoz) 32.4 EBT (2,285.6) (2,160.2) 378.6 394.1 424.9

Measured, Indicated, & Inferred (excl.) Taxes 261.5 87.1 132.5 137.9 148.7

Oz (MM) 18.0 34.4 32.9 41.8 45.5 Minority Interest (4.8) 1.4 10.2 10.5 10.0

Reserve and Resource Statistics Other 37.4 (729.8) (6.0) - -

Reserves/sh (x1,000) 74.1 66.0 61.9 55.0 54.9 Net Income (Reported) (2,504.9) (2,978.5) 229.9 245.7 266.2

Reserves & resources/sh (x1,000) 102.8 115.7 101.8 91.7 94.9 Net Income (Adjusted) 879.2 371.8 229.9 245.7 266.2

Current Per Ounce Statistics

Adj. EV / LOM Prod (US$/oz) 432 EV/Resource (US$/oz) 71 EPS (Reported) ($/sh) (2.20) (2.61) 0.20 0.21 0.23

Total Acquisition Cost (US$/oz) 1207 EV/Reserve (US$/oz) 112 EPS (Adjusted) ($/sh) 0.77 0.33 0.20 0.21 0.23

Average shares (MM) 1,138.8 1,142.1 1,143.3 1,143.3 1,143.3


Asset NAV /Share % NAV % Resrv CASH FLOW STATEMENT

North America 803 0.70 17% 12% US$MM, Year-end Dec. 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Russia 1,432 1.25 31% 9% Net Income (Reported) (2,504.9) (2,978.5) 229.9 245.7 266.2

South America 1,305 1.14 28% 55% Depreciation 681.2 829.9 700.0 689.0 659.3

Africa 1,064 0.93 23% 24% Other 2,932.5 3,032.6 (40.9) (44.9) (27.9)

Gold Exploration Properties 50 0.04 1% 0% Operating Cash Flow 1,108.8 884.1 889.1 889.8 897.6

Other 7 0.01 -1% 0% Operating Cash Flow ($/sh) 0.97 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.79

Total Mining and Investment Assets 4,661 4.08 100% 100% Working Capital Changes 146.5 (78.9) - - -

Balance Sheet Items & Expenditures -1,588 -1.39 Cash from Operations 1,255.3 805.2 889.1 889.8 897.6

Total 3,073 2.69 Capital Expenditure (1,924.7) (1,329.7) (805.1) (698.4) (648.3)


NAV BY ASSET GOLD RESERVES BY ASSET Investing Cash Flow (2,163.0) (1,052.8) (805.1) (698.4) (648.3)

Common Share Dividends 182.5 91.5 - - -

Debt Additions 1,541.1 - - - -

Debt Repayments (577.3) (523.3) (60.0) (60.0) (270.0)


Other Net Financing (196.0) (96.9) - - -

Financing Cash Flow 774.2 (614.0) (60.0) (60.0) (270.0)


Change In Cash (133.1) (887.7) 23.9 131.4 (20.7)

Cash Balance 1,632.9 745.0 768.9 900.3 879.6

Free Cash Flow 147.9 (968.9) 23.9 131.4 (20.7)

Adj. Free Cash Flow (1) (669.4) (524.5) 83.9 191.4 249.3

VALUATION DATA


P/E 6.2x 14.6x 23.7x 22.2x 20.4x

P/CF 4.9x 6.1x 6.1x 6.1x 6.1x

EV/EBITDA 3.4x 4.8x 6.1x 6.1x 6.1x

Adj. FCF Yield (1) (12.3%) (6.7%) 1.3% 2.9% 3.7%

INPUT PRICES

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Key Commodities

Gold (US$/oz) 1,668 1,413 1,254 1,254 1,254

Silver (US$/oz) 31.13 23.91 20.29 20.29 20.29

Copper (US$/lb) 3.61 3.33 3.31 3.29 3.27

Zinc (US$/lb) 0.88 0.87 0.94 0.95 0.95

Oil (US$/bbl) 94 98 100 103 104

Key Currencies

CAD/USD 1.00 0.97 0.91 0.89 0.93

USD/RUB 31.03 31.82 33.45 34.54 32.80

USD/BRL 1.95 2.15 2.30 2.35 2.35

USD/CLP 486 495 500 510 520



12%

9%

55%

24%0%0%




17%

31%

28%

23%

1%-1%




200

350

500

650

800

950

1,100

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2010A 2012A 2014E 2016E 2018E 2020E

Tota

l C

ash C

osts

(U

S$/o

z)

Gold

Pro

duction (

koz)

Kupol / Dvoinoye Tasiast Chirano

Maricunga La Coipa / Pompeya Paracatu

Buckhorn - Kettle River Fort Knox Round Mountain

Total Cash Costs (Co-product) Total Cash Costs (By-product)



Company Overview

Kinross is a senior gold and silver producer with assets in the United States, Russia, Mauritania, Chile, Brazil, and Ghana. The company was founded by Robert Buchan in 1993 with the amalgamation of three entities. Historically, Kinross' growth has been attributable to strategic M&A opportunities. Acquisitions that led to historical production and value growth include its $340MM acquisition of Amax Gold in 1998 (Fort Knox, Maricunga), a $1.3B merger with TVX Gold and Echo Bay Mines in 2003 (La Coipa, Paracatu, Crixas, Round Mountain, Kettle River), and the $2.8B Bema Gold merger in 2007 (Kupol, Cerro Casale). Kinross' production grew from 68 koz in 1993, to 2.6 MMoz in 2012. Production guidance in 2013 is for 2.60-2.65 MMGEO at total cash costs of $740-790/oz. Current attributable reserves are 59.60 MMoz grading 0.73 g/t.

While a growth through acquisition model had historically worked for the company, not all transactions have been accretive. Major disappointments include Aurelian Resources (Fruta Del Norte project) for $705MM in 2008, Underworld Resources (White Gold project) for $130MM in 2010, Lobo Marte from Teck Resources for $240MM in 2008, and its $7.3B acquisition of Red Back Mining (Tasiast and Chirano) in 2010. The company has periodically engaged in higher political risk transactions, some of which have been value drivers (Bema, Dvoinoye in Russia), while others have been disappointments (Aurelian, Fruta Del Norte in Ecuador). Kinross has also completed transactions outside the company's area of expertise, which have been ultimately favorable to shareholders (Diavik diamond mine and Harry Winston strategic investment in 2009, and subsequent divestiture in 2010/2011).

Kinross' recent focus amid volatile commodity prices has been on improving its operating cost structure. The company has made progress by replacing mine level management at troubled operations (Paracatu), suspending production at high cost operations (La Coipa, Maricunga if improvements aren't achieved), reducing capital expenditures, exploration and G&A expenses, and suspending current dividend payments. Kinross continues on its cost containment program, with improvements expected to continue into the coming years.

Shares of Kinross are listed on the TSX exchange under the ticker K and on the NYSE under the ticker KGC. Basic shares outstanding total 1.14B, with an additional 14.3MM options, and 25.8MM warrants outstanding. Major shareholders include BlackRock (9.6%), Van Eck Associates (6.8%), First Eagle Investment Management (6.6%), Artisan Partners (4.0%), and BMO Capital Markets (2.5%). Insiders hold approximately 0.08%.

Kinross Corporate Exposure Overview


Silver2%

Gold98%

Commodity ExposureOperating vs. Development

Operating Assets99%

Exploration & Development

1%Russia31%

Maurit.17%

Brazil21%

U.S.17%

Ghana6%

Geographic Exposure

Chile 8%




Kinross Gold Corp.Net Asset Valuation at Spot Gold (US$)

Shares (FD, FF, ITM) (MM) 1,143.324



Discount 0% 5% 10%


Gold Assets

Kupol / Dvoinoye (100.0%), Russia 5% $1,432 $1.25 $1,657 $1.45 $1,432 $1.25 $1,256 $1.10

Tasiast (100.0%), Mauritania 5% $777 $0.68 $1,806 $1.58 $777 $0.68 $304 $0.27

Maricunga (100.0%), Chile 5% $281 $0.25 $380 $0.33 $281 $0.25 $215 $0.19

La Coipa / Pompeya (100.0%), Chile 5% $61 $0.05 $91 $0.08 $61 $0.05 $41 $0.04

Paracatu (100.0%), Brazil 5% $963 $0.84 $1,745 $1.53 $963 $0.84 $585 $0.51

Buckhorn - Kettle River (100.0%), US (WA) 5% $51 $0.04 $53 $0.05 $51 $0.04 $49 $0.04

Fort Knox (100.0%), US (AK) 5% $547 $0.48 $646 $0.57 $547 $0.48 $471 $0.41

Round Mountain (50.0%), US (NV) 5% $205 $0.18 $256 $0.22 $205 $0.18 $168 $0.15

Chirano (90.0%), Ghana 5% $287 $0.25 $345 $0.30 $287 $0.25 $246 $0.22

Gold Exploration Properties $50 $0.04 $50 $0.04 $50 $0.04 $50 $0.04

Gold Hedge Book $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 0


Other Assets


Investments $7 $0.01 $7 $0.01 $7 $0.01 $7 $0.01

Total Other Assets $7 $0.01 $7 $0.01 $7 $0.01 $7 $0.01


Basic Working Capital $2,017 $1.76 $2,017 $1.76 $2,017 $1.76 $2,017 $1.76


Estimated Working Capital Additions $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00

Long-term Debt ($2,080) -$1.82 ($2,080) -$1.82 ($2,080) -$1.82 ($2,080) -$1.82

Estimated Debt Additions $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00 $0 $0.00

General & Administrative Expense 5% ($935) -$0.82 ($1,376) -$1.20 ($935) -$0.82 ($695) -$0.61

Other Expenses 5% ($283) -$0.25 ($395) -$0.35 ($283) -$0.25 ($221) -$0.19



Net Asset Value (US$) $3,073 $2.69 $4,855 $4.25 $3,073 $2.69 $2,139 $1.87

Share Price (C$) $5.22 $5.22 $5.22 $5.22



Gold Price ($/oz) 1,413 1,254 1254 1254

Silver Price ($/oz) 23.91 20.29 20.29 20.29

Copper Price ($/oz) 3.33 3.31 3.29 3.20




Financial Forecasts - At Price Deck

Our operating and financial forecasts for Kinross are summarized below and are displayed at the Dundee Price Deck.

Income Statement



Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,633 1,420 1,330 1,271 1,237 1,223 1,250 1,282 1,668 1,413 1,248 1,327

Revenue 1,058.1 968.0 876.3 854.3 773.6 821.5 841.9 858.6 4,311.4 3,756.7 3,295.7 3,510.0

Operating Costs (475.7) (513.5) (486.8) (482.9) (457.8) (480.5) (478.1) (473.1) (1,850.8) (1,958.9) (1,889.5) (1,862.2)

Depreciation (227.7) (210.1) (184.3) (207.8) (184.5) (172.3) (171.5) (172.5) (681.2) (829.9) (700.8) (689.7)

G&A, Expl, Other (103.8) (95.0) (103.3) (120.0) (81.0) (81.0) (81.0) (81.0) (498.4) (422.1) (324.0) (365.3)

EBIT 250.9 149.4 101.9 43.5 50.3 87.7 111.3 132.0 1,281.0 545.7 381.4 592.9

Net Interest (6.6) (6.8) (6.5) (6.2) (4.4) (3.9) (3.9) (3.6) (19.5) (26.1) (15.7) (10.0)

Unusual/Other Items (9.4) (2,676.4) 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (3,547.1) (2,679.8) 0.0 0.0

Pretax Profit 234.9 (2,533.8) 101.4 37.3 45.9 83.9 107.5 128.4 (2,285.6) (2,160.2) 365.7 582.8

Tax (72.8) 53.6 (54.8) (13.1) (16.1) (29.4) (37.6) (44.9) (261.5) (87.1) (128.0) (204.0)

Other (1.6) (722.8) (4.7) (2.1) (3.6) (3.9) (4.2) (4.4) 42.2 (731.2) (16.0) (12.7)

Earnings reported 160.5 (3,203.0) 41.9 22.1 26.3 50.6 65.7 79.1 (2,504.9) (2,978.5) 221.7 366.2

Earnings (Adjusted) 170.5 119.5 59.7 22.1 26.3 50.6 65.7 79.1 879.2 371.8 221.7 366.2

EPS Reported 0.14 (2.81) 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.07 (2.20) (2.61) 0.19 0.32

EPS Adjusted 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.77 0.33 0.19 0.32



Cash Flow Statement



Earnings (adjusted) 170.5 119.5 59.7 22.1 26.3 50.6 65.7 79.1 879.2 371.8 221.7 366.2

Depreciation 227.7 210.1 184.3 207.8 184.5 172.3 171.5 172.5 681.2 829.9 700.8 689.7

Other (62.0) (171.8) (56.9) (27.0) (16.4) (11.3) (8.2) (6.4) (451.6) (317.7) (42.2) (32.5)

Operating Cash flow 336.2 157.8 187.1 203.0 194.4 211.6 229.0 245.2 1,108.8 884.1 880.2 1,023.3

Working Capital Changes 21.9 (51.4) (49.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 146.5 (78.9) 0.0 0.0

Cash Flow from Operations 358.1 106.4 137.7 203.0 194.4 211.6 229.0 245.2 1,255.3 805.2 880.2 1,023.3

Capital Expenditure (317.8) (321.0) (300.8) (390.1) (212.9) (210.7) (190.8) (190.8) (1,924.7) (1,329.7) (805.1) (698.5)

Net Investments 328.7 (17.5) (34.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (238.3) 276.9 0.0 0.0

Investing Cash Flow 10.9 (338.5) (335.1) (390.1) (212.9) (210.7) (190.8) (190.8) (2,163.0) (1,052.8) (805.1) (698.5)

Debt Additions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,541.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Debt Repayments (487.0) (6.3) (30.0) 0.0 (30.0) 0.0 (30.0) 0.0 (577.3) (523.3) (60.0) (60.0)

Equity Financing 1.6 1.4 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 6.2 0.0 0.0

Other Net Financing (92.8) (2.9) (1.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (196.0) (96.9) 0.0 0.0

Financing Cash Flow (578.2) (7.8) (28.0) 0.0 (30.0) 0.0 (30.0) 0.0 774.2 (614.0) (60.0) (60.0)

Foreign Exchange (2.7) (9.3) 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 (9.0) 0.0 0.0

Cash Increase (211.9) (257.7) (231.0) (187.1) (48.5) 0.9 8.3 54.4 (133.1) (887.7) 15.1 264.8

Cash Balance 1,420.8 1,163.1 932.1 745.0 696.5 697.4 705.6 760.1 1,632.9 745.0 760.1 1,024.9

Free Cash Flow (468.6) (169.5) (143.7) (187.1) (48.5) 0.9 8.3 54.4 147.9 (968.9) 15.1 264.8

CFPS (adjusted) 0.29 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.17 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.97 0.77 0.77 0.90

Balance Sheet(US$MM except per share data)


Current Assets 3,005.4 2,830.3 2,721.3 2,534.2 2,485.7 2,486.6 2,494.8 2,549.3 3,600.8 2,534.2 2,549.3 2,814.1

Other Assets 11,460.0 8,240.3 8,332.2 8,514.5 8,542.8 8,581.3 8,600.5 8,618.8 11,281.6 8,514.5 8,618.8 8,627.6

Total Assets 14,465.4 11,070.6 11,053.5 11,048.7 11,028.5 11,067.9 11,095.4 11,168.1 14,882.4 11,048.7 11,168.1 11,441.7

Current Liabilities 801.6 767.8 704.1 704.1 704.1 704.1 704.1 704.1 1,306.2 704.1 704.1 914.1

Long Term Debt 2,110.0 2,110.0 2,080.0 2,080.0 2,050.0 2,050.0 2,020.0 2,020.0 1,148.4 2,110.0 2,050.0 2,007.0




Shares (End of Period) (MM) 1,141.66 1,142.16 1,143.32 1,143.32 1,143.32 1,143.32 1,143.32 1,143.32 1,140.13 1,143.32 1,143.32 1,143.32





Operating Summary


Production (kGEO)

Chirano (90.0%), Ghana 60.4 56.3 63.0 64.9 64.9 68.5 69.3 69.3 263.9 244.6 272.0 277.4

Kupol / Dvoinoye (100.0%), Russia 124.5 121.7 150.4 172.6 174.0 174.0 174.0 173.9 578.3 569.3 695.8 670.2

Tasiast (100.0%), Mauritania 62.8 71.0 51.1 64.0 62.3 62.3 66.3 70.2 185.3 248.8 261.2 306.4

Maricunga (100.0%), Chile 55.1 49.0 38.1 52.1 56.9 59.3 59.3 59.3 236.4 194.3 234.9 237.8

La Coipa / Pompeya (100.0%), Chile 53.7 48.2 43.7 13.9 - - - - 178.9 159.6 - -

Paracatu (100.0%), Brazil 119.9 120.2 135.5 130.6 127.4 134.1 134.1 134.1 466.7 506.3 529.6 538.3

Buckhorn - Kettle River (100.0%), US (WA) 39.9 45.0 34.6 31.7 25.9 25.9 19.7 19.7 156.1 151.2 91.3 23.3

Fort Knox (100.0%), US (AK) 93.3 102.7 122.0 103.6 72.7 105.8 105.8 98.2 360.0 421.6 382.5 382.9

Round Mountain (50.0%), US (NV) 39.4 41.0 42.1 31.3 34.2 34.2 37.2 37.2 192.3 153.8 142.8 177.1

Adjustments/Other - (0.0) - - - - - - 15.9 (0.0) - -

Equity Production 648.9 655.4 680.6 664.7 618.2 664.1 665.8 662.1 2,633.7 2,649.5 2,610.2 2,613.5

Total Cash Costs (US$/GEO)

Chirano (90.0%), Ghana 730 830 764 696 669 648 645 649 721 753 653 656

Kupol / Dvoinoye (100.0%), Russia 548 516 515 529 554 552 547 548 472 526 551 573

Tasiast (100.0%), Mauritania 880 1,066 1,161 925 909 913 867 827 888 1,002 877 775

Maricunga (100.0%), Chile 1,091 1,075 1,368 1,063 987 953 959 965 785 1,134 965 945

La Coipa / Pompeya (100.0%), Chile 704 773 757 749 - - - - 953 744 - -

Paracatu (100.0%), Brazil 831 862 770 843 870 832 838 843 881 825 845 843

Buckhorn - Kettle River (100.0%), US (WA) 512 495 602 643 792 798 804 810 480 555 800 867

Fort Knox (100.0%), US (AK) 558 575 555 568 536 562 566 543 655 564 553 542

Round Mountain (50.0%), US (NV) 804 813 812 876 878 879 826 808 718 823 846 750

Total Cash Costs 729 737 740 726 739 721 716 712 706 733 722 708

Capex ($MM) 317.8 321.0 300.8 390.1 212.9 210.7 190.8 190.8 1,924.7 1,329.7 805.1 698.5




Key Assets

Tasiast (100% ownership; 17% of NAV; Mauritania)


Milestones: Acquisition (Delivered - 2010); Expansion pre-feasibility results (Delivered - April 2013); Expansion feasibility results (1Q14).

Opportunities: Potential throughput expansion; Additional exploration opportunities along prospective 80km mineralized trend.

Risks: Low margin production; Historically high capital expenditure; High geopolitical concerns and uncertainty; Permitting, development, and technical risks with potential sea water supply and natural gas power supply.

Tasiast is located in the West African country of Mauritania, 300 km north of the capital city of Nouakchott. The mine is an open pit mill/dump leach operation that has been in production since 2008. Kinross acquired its ownership of Tasiast in conjunction with its $7.1B acquisition of Red Back Mining in 2010. The deposit was initially discovered in 1996. Gold mineralization is generally associated with quartz carbonate veining. Current reserves are 7.8MMoz grading 1.66 g/t, while considerable additional resources of 7.55 MMoz exist on the property.

Kinross' initial plans had proposed a major expansion of mill capacity from the 8,000 tpd rate to a potential 60,000 tpd rate. Following increasing capital cost pressures and declining investment returns, the company subsequently pursued an alternative plan in an effort to determine the optimal throughput rate. In April 2013, Kinross announced pre-feasibility estimates for a 30,000 tpd expansion scenario. The project was slated to produce 475 koz/annum (830 koz/a in first 5 years) at total cash costs of $700/oz. Initial capex was $2.7B, while the project was estimated to have an after tax IRR of 11% and NPV5% of $1.1B, utilizing a $1,500 gold price. Although returns were deemed insufficient to advance development, Kinross is continuing its technical efforts to determine the merits of n expansion to 38,000 tpd. A feasibility study is scheduled for completion in 1Q14. Major capital spend areas are largely associated with mill construction, as well as infrastructure, including a sea water pipeline necessary for the expansion and potential incorporation of natural gas power, both of which are currently awaiting permit approval.

As a result of recent decrease in expectations and impairment testing at lower gold prices, Kinross has written off $7.9B from Tasiast. While upside exists at Tasiast, based on the capital outlay and the current gold price environment, we believe management will not proceed with expansion plans and do not ascribe the potential opportunity any value in our estimates. .



Kupol (100% ownership; 31% of NAV; Russia)


Milestones: Commercial production at Dvoinoye (Delivered - October 2013).

Opportunities: Track record of high margin, low cost production; Potential development of satellite exploration deposits, including Maroshka.

Risks: Uncertain geopolitical risks; Declining grade profile in future years.

Kinross acquired its initial 75% stake in Kupol through its acquisition of Bema Gold Corp for $3.1B in 2007, and consolidated the remaining 25% interest owned by the Russian Chukotka state government in April 2011 for $335MM. The remote operation is located 400 km from the nearest sea port, and is mainly accessed by an on-site air field. Mineralization was first discovered in 1995 by a state-funded mining and exploration company. Gold and silver occur natively within quartz veins and breccias.

Kupol is an underground mining operation, with ore processed via a conventional CIL mill and Merril-Crowe circuit. Underground mining operations commenced in 2008, providing Kinross with low cost ounces towards its pipeline. Although Russia is perceived as a higher risk jurisdiction, the Kupol mine has largely been unaffected by geopolitical risk, while Russia has been Kinross' lowest cost jurisdiction. In 2012, Kupol produced 578 kGEO at total cash costs of $472/oz.

Recent events at Kupol have focused on commissioning of the high grade Dvoinoye satellite deposit, located 85km north of the Kupol processing plant. The deposit was acquired by Kinross in 2010, and reached commercial production rates on October 1, 2013 on time and on budget. With the addition of Dvoinoye ore to the mill, throughput rates reached 4,500 tpd in 4Q13, up from prior solely Kupol throughput rates of 3,500 tpd. Management is guiding Dvoinoye annual production of 235-300 kGEO in its first full three years of production. Current mine life, based on Kupol reserves (2.4 MMoz at 9.29 g/t) is a relatively short 6 years, while Dvoinoye production is expected to extend its mine life beyond 2019. Recent exploration activities have focused on regional Kupol targets (Maroshka), and district exploration near Dvoinoye in efforts to extend the mine life at this low cost operation.



Paracatu (100% ownership; 21% of NAV; Brazil)


Milestones: Ramp up to 61MMtpa (Delivered - 2009); Brazil presidential elections (October 2014); Resolution of proposed fiscal term revisions in Brazil (Ongoing).

Opportunities: Potential operating cost structure improvements.

Risks: Geopolitical and foreign exchange rate risk; Low grade mineralization; Potential mine plan or reserve risk at lower gold prices.

Kinross acquired a 49% stake in the Paracatu mine through its $1.95B business combination of Kinross, TVX and Echo Bay in 2004 and subsequently purchased the remaining 51% from Rio Tinto in December 2004 for $260MM. Paracatu is the largest gold mine in Brazil, having produced 467 koz at total cash costs of $881/oz in 2012. Historically, the Paracatu region has seen significant placer gold mining dating back to 1722, while modern exploration methods first began in 1984 by Rio Tinto. Mineralization is associated with arsenopyrite and pyrite, and appears predominantly as fine-grained free gold. Based on current reserves of 17.98 MMoz at 0.40 g/t, the operation has a very long mine life, extending into 2042.

Paracatu is an open pit mine which has been expanded from throughput of 20 MMtpa to a considerable 61 MMtpa operation with the addition of a 2nd plant in 2009 to treat an increasing amount of sulphide ore at depth. Despite the mine's low grade, ore is processed via a convention CIL plant. While ore hardness impacted results during commissioning of the second plant, the addition of a third ball mill in 2011 reduced the impact of ore hardness on recoveries. A cost reduction initiative commenced on site in 2013, replacing mine level management in efforts to reduce operating costs and improve operating performance. Thus far, cost reduction initiatives have been effective, with Paracatu achieving all-time production records in 3Q13 (135 koz at total cash costs of $770/oz).



Fort Knox (100% ownership; 12% of NAV; Alaska)


Milestones: Record quarterly production (3Q13).

Opportunities: Exploration and extension of satellite deposits to extend mine life.

Risks: Permitting requirements for tailings expansion; Impact of seasonality on production recovered.

Kinross acquired a 100% ownership of Fort Knox in 1998 through its merger with Amax Gold. Located 40km north of Fairbanks, Alaska, the mine is well positioned near infrastructure, power, and labour. It is currently one of the few cold-climate heap leach operations in the world. Mineralization at Fort Knox was discovered in 1984, with gold predominantly hosted in quartz veins. The open pit project began mill operations in 1997, followed by heap leach processing to treat low grade ore in 2009. In 2012, the mine produced 360 koz at total cash costs of $663/oz, accounting for 15% of corporate production.

Optimization of Fort Knox remains a focus. In July 2013, Kinross introduced a second carbon-in-column circuit for heap leach processing to improve mine performance, resulting in record quarterly production in 3Q13 (122 koz at total cash costs of $555/oz). As of year-end 2012 Fort Knox had reserves of 3.6MMoz at 0.47 g/t (including 911 MMoz at 0.34 g/t in low-grade stockpiles).



Other Operations

Chirano (90% ownership; 6% NAV; Ghana)


Details/Catalysts: Chirano is an open pit/underground operating mine which began production in October 2005.

The mine was acquired in conjunction with Kinross' acquisition of Red Back. In 2012, the

operation produced 264 koz at total cash costs of $721/oz. Lower costs have the potential to

be realized as the proportion of underground ore feed increases.

Round Mountain (50% ownership; 4% NAV; Nevada)


Details/Catalysts: Round Mountain is a conventional open-pit joint-venture operation with Barrick Gold.

Optimization continues with its JV partner to improve the mine's operating performance.

Buckhorn - Kettle River (100% ownership; 1% NAV; Washington)


Details/Catalysts: Originally designed as an open pit mine, Buckhorn was redesigned and developed as an

underground mine, with the Kettle River mill refurbished to process the ore. Operations are

expected to continue until 2015, while Kinross believes potential exists to add reserves and

extend the mine's life.

Maricunga (100% ownership; 6% NAV; Chile)


Details/Catalysts: Maricunga is an open pit heap leach operation that began operations in 1998, temporarily

shutting down between 2001 and late2 2005 amid a low gold price environment. Based on the

expected processing rates and reserves, the mine life of the Maricunga property is estimated

to continue up to 2024. The mine is a high cost operation which Kinross is seeking to optimize.

La Coipa/Pompeya (100% ownership; 1% NAV; Chile)

Reserves (100%): 418 koz Au at 1.52 g/t, and 11.10 MMoz Ag at 40.26 g/t

Details/Catalysts: Kinross suspended mining of the existing orebody at La Coipa in 4Q13. The Company is

continuing to assess the remaining mineral reserves and resources and exploration potential

at La Coipa, including the future potential of developing Pompeya and Catalina as new higher

grade sources of ore for the mill.

Cerro Casale (25% ownership; <1% NAV; Chile)

Reserves (100%): 23.25 MMoz Au at 0.62 g/t, 58.69 MMoz Ag at 1.37 g/t, and 5.78 Blbs Cu at 0.22%

Details/Catalysts: Cerro Casale is a JV development project between the operator, Barrick (75%), and Kinross

(25%). Barrick has deferred any construction decision, as the project currently does not meet

its required investment criteria. Initial capex is currently estimated at $6.0B ($1.5B being

Kinross' share).



Risks


Kinross valuation is dependent upon the price of gold and silver. Our outlook for these commodities is positive, but price declines would be expected to impact the valuation of Kinross' assets and could affect development decisions. We estimate Kinross’ NAV would change by 64% for a 10% change in the price of gold and silver, assuming other inputs remain fixed. This leverage is high compared to the average of 47% for our coverage universe.



Country Risk - High

Kinross operates in the United States, Russia, Mauritania, Chile, Brazil, and Ghana; each of which has its own legislative bodies and laws. A change in government will always pose a risk. In addition, Kinross is vulnerable to potential geopolitical and social unrest which could impact production targets and operating costs.

In Chile, recently elected president Michelle Bachelet intends to increase corporate income tax rates from 20% to 25%. Higher taxes would have a material impact on Chile’s mining industry, which has experienced significant increases in labour, supply and power costs. A change in tax rates would impact free cash flow generation at Maricunga and any potential cash flow generated if La Coipa/Pompeya was re-commissioned.

In Ghana, government officials have recently discussed the implementation of a windfall tax for gold operations. While we currently do not incorporate any new taxes in our estimates, any additional changes to Ghanaian taxes and royalty rates could impact our valuation.

In Brazil, the government has discussed the potential for rising royalty rates for miners in country, which we do not incorporate in our estimates. A change in royalty rates would impact cash flow from and the valuation of Paracatu.

In addition, Kinross is exposed to unique and higher country risk with its exposure to Russia and Mauritania, two countries with volatile politics and which have histories of instability.

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Permitting Risk - Medium

Exploration activities, project development, and mineral exploitation require permitting approval from respective legislative bodies (federal, provincial/state, municipal) in United States, Russia, Mauritania, Chile, Brazil, and Ghana. While multiple permits are necessary to achieve production status, a key hurdle surrounds the approval of a project's Environment Impact Assessment (EIA/EIS). Receipt of any permits cannot be guaranteed, while respective legislative bodies reserve the power to halt and potentially revoke permits.

Currency Risk - High

Kinross' costs and capital expenditures are exposed to the U.S. dollar, the Russian ruble, the Brazilian peso, and the Chilean peso. We note that future volatility in exchange rates may result in material changes to our valuation. Currently, Kinross remains unhedged to gold prices, while it hedges a portion of its exposure to energy prices and currencies, including the Brazilian real, the Chilean peso, the Russian ruble, and the Canadian dollar.

Technical Risk - High

Reserves, resources and anticipated additions are estimates based on the best available information. Variance from these estimates, in particular continuity, grades and recoveries, could negatively impact the valuation of projects. Input commodity prices may impact reserve and resource calculations, as a lower gold price assumption could decrease a company's year-over-year mineable inventory (excluding depletion). Kinross is expecting to utilize a similar gold price for its 2013 year-end reserve calculation that it did in 2012, which incorporate a gold price of $1,200/oz.

Development Risk - Low

Start-up projects are exposed to the risk of over-expenditure. Our parameter assumptions are subject to significant uncertainty. Operating, geological or metallurgical parameters may differ from expectations. Changes to environmental protection laws and regulations could affect the company’s operations. Kinross is currently conducting a feasibility study for the Tasiast mill expansion to be completed in 1Q14. While the company does not expect to make a final construction decision until 2015. We currently do not incorporate a mill expansion in our estimates.



Quarterly Earnings and Cash Flow Estimates

Source: Bloomberg, Company reports, Dundee Capital Markets

Company Ticker At Spot

(4)

At Spot

1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13E CY13 CY13E 1Q14E 2Q13A 3Q14E 4Q14E CY14E CY14E

Senior Producers

Barrick Gold Corp. ABX CN $0.92 $0.66 $0.58 $0.28 $2.44 $2.44 $0.31 $0.32 $0.35 $0.38 $1.36 $1.38

Goldcorp Inc. G CN $0.31 $0.14 $0.23 $0.16 $0.85 $0.85 $0.09 $0.08 $0.09 $0.11 $0.37 $0.38

Kinross Gold Corp. K CN $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $0.02 $0.33 $0.33 $0.02 $0.04 $0.06 $0.07 $0.19 $0.20


Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM CN $0.25 -$0.09 $0.32 $0.21 $0.69 $0.69 $0.07 $0.07 $0.09 $0.08 $0.32 $0.34

Eldorado Gold Corp. ELD CN $0.11 $0.06 $0.06 $0.03 $0.26 $0.26 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.16 $0.16

IAMGOLD Corp. IMG CN $0.13 $0.07 $0.06 $0.04 $0.30 $0.30 $0.03 -$0.02 $0.04 $0.07 $0.11 $0.12

New Gold Inc. NGD CN $0.04 $0.01 $0.04 $0.03 $0.13 $0.13 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.05 $0.15 $0.16

Osisko Mining Corp OSK CN $0.08 $0.06 $0.05 $0.09 $0.27 $0.27 $0.07 $0.07 $0.05 $0.06 $0.25 $0.26

Randgold Resources Ltd. GOLD US $0.68 $0.46 $0.85 $0.66 $2.65 $2.65 $0.53 $0.55 $0.61 $0.66 $2.34 $2.38

Yamana Gold Inc. YRI CN $0.15 $0.07 $0.08 $0.10 $0.41 $0.41 $0.06 $0.06 $0.08 $0.09 $0.29 $0.28

Company Ticker At Spot At Spot

1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13E CY13 CY13E 1Q14E 2Q13A 3Q14E 4Q14E CY14E CY14E

Senior Producers

Barrick Gold Corp. ABX CN $1.23 $1.17 $1.18 $0.68 $4.27 $4.27 $0.72 $0.72 $0.76 $0.82 $3.03 $3.05

Goldcorp Inc. G CN $0.42 $0.43 $0.51 $0.43 $1.78 $1.78 $0.17 $0.37 $0.35 $0.42 $1.31 $1.33

Kinross Gold Corp. K CN $0.29 $0.14 $0.16 $0.18 $0.77 $0.77 $0.17 $0.19 $0.20 $0.21 $0.77 $0.78


Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM CN $0.78 $0.37 $0.89 $0.75 $2.79 $2.79 $0.57 $0.64 $0.68 $0.67 $2.56 $2.58

Eldorado Gold Corp. ELD CN $0.20 $0.12 $0.15 $0.07 $0.53 $0.53 $0.10 $0.08 $0.11 $0.09 $0.38 $0.38

IAMGOLD Corp. IMG CN $0.31 $0.18 $0.18 $0.21 $0.88 $0.88 $0.15 $0.11 $0.16 $0.27 $0.68 $0.68

New Gold Inc. NGD CN $0.15 -$0.04 $0.10 $0.10 $0.31 $0.31 $0.15 $0.11 $0.17 $0.13 $0.56 $0.56

Osisko Mining Corp OSK CN $0.15 $0.14 $0.16 $0.17 $0.58 $0.58 $0.13 $0.13 $0.12 $0.13 $0.51 $0.52

Randgold Resources Ltd. GOLD US $1.51 $0.92 $1.80 $1.28 $5.51 $5.51 $1.30 $1.26 $1.47 $1.56 $5.59 $5.64

Yamana Gold Inc. YRI CN $0.28 $0.20 $0.24 $0.22 $0.95 $0.95 $0.19 $0.21 $0.24 $0.26 $0.90 $0.89

(1) Calculated at price deck gold forecasts: 2013=$1,413/oz, 2014=$1,248/oz, 2015=$1,327/oz, Long Term=$1,325/oz

2013E Adj. EPS At Price Deck (1) 2014E Adj. EPS At Price Deck (1)

2013E CFPS At Price Deck (1) 2014E CFPS At Price Deck (1)



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Mineral Exploration Watchlist: Dundee Capital Markets has not initiated formal continuing coverage of Mineral Exploration Watchlist companies. The companies will have recommendations and risk ratings as per our regular rating system, see Explanation of Recommendations and Risk Ratings for details. Risk ratings will be either Speculative or Venture. Speculative Risk rated companies are those companies that have published National Instrument 43-101 or JORC compliant resources or reliable historic resources and/or economic evaluations (scoping, pre-feasibility or feasibility studies) for material project(s) that could reasonably form the basis of a discounted cash flow analysis. Venture Risk rated companies are those companies that are generally at an earlier stage of exploration and/or development, where no material resource estimate, historic or compliant, exists. No price targets will be set for Mineral Exploration Watchlist companies as there are limited financial metrics upon which to base a reasonable valuation. Valuation methodologies and models will not be provided for Mineral Exploration Watchlist companies. Dundee clients should consult their investment advisor as to the appropriateness of an investment in the securities mentioned. Oil & Gas Exploration Watchlist: Dundee Capital Markets has not initiated formal continuing coverage of Oil & Gas Exploration Watchlist companies. The companies will have recommendations and risk ratings as per our regular rating system, see Explanation of Recommendations and Risk Ratings for details. Risk ratings will be either Speculative or Venture. Speculative Risk rated companies are those companies that have published National Instrument 51-101 or SPE compliant resources or reliable historic resources and/or economic evaluations for material project(s) that could reasonably form the basis of a discounted cash flow analysis. Venture Risk rated companies are those companies that are generally at an earlier stage of exploration and/or development, where no material resource estimate exists, or there is significant uncertainty with respect to firm drilling timing and prospects. No price targets will be set for Oil & Gas Exploration Watchlist companies as there are limited financial metrics, or resource information available, upon which to base a reasonable valuation. Dundee clients should consult their investment advisor as to the appropriateness of an investment in the securities mentioned. Presentations do not include disclosures that are specific to analysts and specific to companies under coverage. Please refer to formal published research reports for company specific disclosures and analyst specific disclosures for companies under coverage. Please refer to formal published research reports for valuation methodologies used in determining target prices for companies under coverage. Idea of Interest: Dundee Capital Markets has not initiated formal continuing coverage of Idea of Interest companies. Dundee

Capital Markets from time to time publishes reports on Idea of Interest securities for which it does not and may not choose to

provide formal continuous research coverage. All opinions and estimates contained in an Idea of Interest report are subject to

change without notice and are provided in good faith but without the legal responsibility that would accompany formal

continuous research coverage. The companies may have recommendations and risk ratings as per our regular rating system

and may have target prices, see Explanation of Recommendations and Risk Ratings for details. Any recommendations, ratings,

target prices and/or comments expire 30 days from the published date, and once expired should no longer be relied upon as

no assurance can be given as to the accuracy or relevance going forward. Dundee does not accept any obligation to update,

modify or amend any Idea of Interest report or to otherwise notify a recipient of an Idea of Interest report in the event that

any estimates, opinions and recommendations contained in such report change or subsequently become inaccurate. Dundee

clients should consult their investment advisor as to the appropriateness of an investment in the securities mentioned.

IIROC Rule 3400 Disclosures and/or FCA COBS 12.4.10 Disclosures: A link is provided in all research reports delivered by electronic means to disclosures required under IIROC Rule 3400. Disclosures required under IIROC Rule 3400 for sector research reports covering six or more issuers can be found on the Dundee Capital Markets website at www.dundeecapitalmarkets.com in the Research Section. Other Services means the participation of Dundee in any institutional non-brokered private placement exceeding $5 million. Where Dundee Capital Markets and its affiliates collectively beneficially own 1% or more (or for the purpose of FCA disclosure 5% or more) of any class of the issuer’s equity securities, our calculations will exclude managed positions that are controlled, but not beneficially owned by Dundee Capital Markets. A Research Analyst/Associate involved in the preparation of this research report has visited certain material operations of the following issuer(s): Goldcorp Inc. Josh Wolfson viewed Goldcorp’s Penasquito mine. The Research Analyst/Associate and/or Dundee Capital Markets has been partially reimbursed for expenses or partial expenses were paid for by the following issuer(s) for travel to material operations of the issuer(s): Goldcorp Inc. Ned Goodman is a Director of Barrick Gold Corp. Explanation of Recommendations and Risk Ratings

Dundee target: represents the price target as required under IIROC Rule 3400. Valuation methodologies used in determining the price

target(s) for the issuer(s) mentioned in this research report are contained in current and/or prior research. Dundee target N/A: a price

target and/or NAV is not available if the analyst deems there are limited financial metrics upon which to base a reasonable valuation.



Recommendations: BUY: Total returns expected to be materially better than the overall market with higher return

expectations needed for more risky securities. NEUTRAL: Total returns expected to be in line with the overall market. SELL:

Total returns expected to be materially lower than the overall market. TENDER: The analyst recommends tendering shares to

a formal tender offer. UNDER REVIEW: The analyst will place the rating and/or target price Under Review when there is a

significant material event with further information pending; and/or when the analyst determines it is necessary to await

adequate information that could potentially lead to a re-evaluation of the rating, target price or forecast; and/or when

coverage of a particular security is transferred from one analyst to another to give the new analyst time to reconfirm the

rating, target price or forecast.

Risk Ratings: risk assessment is defined as Medium, High, Speculative or Venture. Medium: securities with reasonable liquidity

and volatility similar to the market. High: securities with poor liquidity or high volatility. Speculative: where the company's

business and/or financial risk is high and is difficult to value. Venture: an early stage company where the business and/or

financial risk is high, and there are limited financial metrics upon which to base a reasonable valuation.

Investors should not deem the risk ratings to be a comprehensive account of all of the risks of a security. Investors are directed to read Dundee Capital Markets Research reports that contain a discussion of risks which is not meant to be a comprehensive account of all the risks. Investors are directed to read issuer filings which contain a discussion of risk factors specific to the company’s business. Medium and High Risk Ratings Methodology: Medium and High risk ratings are derived using a predetermined methodology based on liquidity and volatility. Analysts will have the discretion to raise but not lower the risk rating if it is deemed a higher risk rating is warranted. Risk in relation to forecasted price volatility is only one method of assessing the risk of a security and actual risk ratings could differ. Securities with poor liquidity or high volatility are considered to be High risk. Liquidity and volatility are measured using the following methodology: a) Price Test: All securities with a price <= $3.00 per share are considered high risk for the purpose of this test. b) Liquidity Test: This is a two-tiered calculation that looks at the market capitalization and trading volumes of a company. Smaller capitalization stocks (<$300MM) are assumed to have less liquidity, and are, therefore, more subject to price volatility. In order to avoid discriminating against smaller cap equities that have higher trading volumes, the risk rating will consider 12 month average trading volumes and if a company has traded >70% of its total shares outstanding it will be considered a liquid stock for the purpose of this test. c) Volatility Test: In this two step process, a stock’s volatility and beta are compared against the diversified equity benchmark. Canadian equities are compared against the TSX while U.S. equities are compared against the S&P 500. Generally, if the volatility of a stock is 20% greater than its benchmark and the beta of the stock is higher than its sector beta, then the security will be considered a high risk security. Otherwise, the security will be deemed to be a medium risk security. Periodically, the equity risk ratings will be compared to downside risk metrics such as Value at Risk and Semi-Variance and appropriate adjustments may be made. All models used for assessing risk incorporate some element of subjectivity. SECURITY ABBREVIATIONS: NVS (non-voting shares); RVS (restricted voting shares); RS (restricted shares); SVS (subordinate voting shares). Dundee Capital Markets Equity Research Ratings

As at December 31, 2013


69%

27%

4%

33%

12% 13%

0%

11%

22%

33%

44%

55%

66%

77%

Buy Neutral Sell

% of companies covered by Dundee Capital Markets ineach rating category

% of companies within each rating category for whichDundee Capital Markets has provided investment bankingservices for a fee in the past 12 months.

Documents

Tahoe Resources THO B Spec $20.00 CL SilverCrest …€¦ · Barrick Gold Corp. ABX N High $22.00 JW Goldcorp Inc. G N High $25.50 JW Kinross Gold Corp. K B High $6.50 JW Intermediate