Taiwan’s 2008 Presidential Elections: An Analysis of What Happened, and What May Happen Next

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Taiwan’s 2008 Presidential Elections: An Analysis of What Happened, and What May Happen Next

by David B. Kopel

IP-3-2008

April 2008

13952 Denver West Parkway • Suite 400 • Golden, Colorado 80401-3141

www.IndependenceInstitute.org • 303-279-6536 • 303-279-4176 fax





Page 2

Whatdoyoucallapoliticalpartythatlosesthe

presidencyina17pointlandslide,twomonthsafter

havingbeentrouncedinthelegislativeelections?A

victimofitsownsuccess.Atleastthat’sthestoryin

Taiwan,wheretherecentdefeatsoftheDemocratic

ProgressiveParty(DPP)demonstrate,ironically,theDPP’slong-term

successinchangingTaiwan’snational

consciousness.

The Rise of the DemocraticProgressive Party TheDPPcametopowerin2000,as

theresultofTaiwan’sseconddirect

presidentialelection.ChenShui-Bian

wontheelectionwithonly39%of

thevote,thankstoasplitbetweentherulingKuomintang(Nationalist

Party,KMT)anditsally,thePeople

FirstParty.TheKMThadruledTaiwaneversince

theU.S.gaveTaiwantotheRepublicofChina,

followingtheJapanesesurrenderthatendedWorld

WarII.TaiwanhadlastbeeninChinesehandsin

1895,whentheChineseQingDynasty(without

askingthepeopleofTaiwan)hadcededtheisland

toJapanese,andtheJapanesehadcrushedthe

effortsoftheTaiwanesetoestablishanindependent

republic.

In1945,mostofChinawasruledbyChiangKai-

Shek,whowasalsotheheadoftheKMTparty.

Again,theTaiwanesewerebrutallyrepressed,most

notablyinthemassacresofthousandsofpeoplethat

beganonFeb.28,1947(knowninTaiwanas“the

2-2-8incident”).AfterlosingtheChinesecivilwar

toMao,Chiang,alongwithhisarmy,apparatchiks,

andothersupporters,fledtoTaiwan,wherethey

establishedadictatorshipwhichruledtheislandfor

decades,imposingtheWhiteTerrorinthe1950s, whichaimedtoeliminatenotonlyCommunist

subversion,butalsotheeffortsoftheTaiwanese

majoritytorulethemselves,ratherthansubmitto

Chiangandhismainlandercadres.

AsChiangKai-Shekgavewaytohisson,Chiang

Ching-Kuo,adegreeofliberalizationwassometimes

allowed,perhapsbecausemanyoftheyounger

Chiang’sadvisorshadbeeneducatedatwestern

universities.In1986,theDemocraticProgressive

Partywasestablishedastheleadingvehiclefor

Taiwaneseseekingtocreateagovernmentthat

respectedpoliticalandcivilrights.TheDPPwassuccessful,asmartiallawwasliftedin1987,andthe

one-partystatebegantogivewaytoamultiparty

democracywithavibrantfreepressandfree

elections.Thenationwasblessedbytheleadership

ofLeeTeng-Hui,theKMTpartyheadwhoovercame

oppositionwithinhisownpartyandguidedTaiwan

towardsfulldemocracyinthe1990s.Todayheis

justlyreveredasthefatherofTaiwandemocracy.

The2000electionofhumanrightslawyerChen

Shui-Bian,alongwithVice-PresidentAnnetteLu(ahumanrightsactivistwhohadspentfiveyears

inprison)markedthefirstpeaceful,

democratictransitionofgovernment

controlinaChinese-speakingnation.

In2004,theKMTdidnotrepeat

its2000mistakeofsplittingwith

itsallies.Butthepartydidmake

themistakeofre-nominatingits

2000candidateLienChan,widely

regardedascorrupt,andindisputablyalacklustercampaigner.TheDPP’s

Chen,anexcellent,fierypublic

speaker,beathimbyamere0.22%.

TheDPPanditsalliesareknownas

thePan-Greencoalition,whilethe

KMTanditsfriendsarethePan-

Blue.Themostideologicalpersons

oneachsideareknownasDeep

GreenorDeepBlue.Aswillbe

detailedbelow,MawontheelectionfortheKMTbymakinghimself,moreorless,paleGreen.

The 2008 ElectionWithPresidentChenterm-limitedandunpopular,

theDPPnominatedFrankHsieh,theformerMayor

ofKaoshiung(alargeportcityinsouthwestTaiwan,

theDPP’sstrongestregion).TheKMTwisely

What do you call

a political party

that loses the

presidency in a

17 point land-

slide, two months

after having been

trounced in the

legislative elec-

tions? A victim of

its own success.

The 2000 elec-

tion of human

rights lawyer

Chen Shui-Bian,

along with Vice-

President Annette

Lu (a human

rights activist

who had spent five years in

prison) marked

the first peaceful,

democratic tran-

sition of govern-

ment control in a

Chinese-speaking

nation.

http://www.vivataiwan.tv/

http://www.vivataiwan.tv/



Page 3

nominatedMaYing-Jeou(literally,HorseHero-

Nine),theformermayorofTaipei,Taiwan’scapital

andlargestcity.

Onelectionday,March22,Maswepttoa58.5%

to41.5%victory,carrying20of25counties,andevennarrowlycarryingKaoshiungCity.Inevery

county(exceptforonesmallcountythatwasalready

95%KMT),theKMTgained7-10%overits2004

showing.Whathappened?

Onedifferencewasthatthecandidates,intermsof

oratoricalskillsandcampaignenergy,wereevenly

matched,unlikein2000and2004.

Thistime,itwastheKMTthatrananissues-based

campaign.Ratherthanpromotingapositiveagenda,muchoftheDPP’srhetoricfocusedonpersonal

attacksonMaandhisfamily.Amongthecharges

werethatMa’swife(whomMamet

whentheywerestudentsatHarvard

LawSchool)hadstolensome

newspapersfromtheHarvardlibrary.

OnMarch16,lessthanaweekbefore

theelection,theDPPgovernment’s

Secretary-GeneralattheMinistryof

EducationattackedMabecauseMa’sdeceasedfatherhad,supposedly,once

hadanextramaritalaffair.Although

theDPPhadbeennarrowingthegapinthepolls,

thepublicbacklashresultfromtheEducation

official’sremarksendedtheDPP’smomentum. 1

Inaddition,theKMThasastructuraladvantageof

greaterfinancialresourcesthantheDPP.Inpart

thisisduetotheKMT’sclosertiestobigbusiness,

andtotheresourceswhichtheKMTwasableto

appropriateforitselfduringthedictatorshipoftheChiangs.

The DPP’s Corruption ProblemFarmoreseriousthanallegedtheftofnewspapera

quarter-centuryagoisTaiwan’sendemicproblemof

corruption.Everyyear,TransparencyInternational

usesavarietyofmetricstoratethedegreeof

corruptioninthenationsoftheworld.IntheTI

ratings,a10isthebestscore,and0istheworst.

TransparencyInternational’s2007Corruption

PerceptionIndexgivesTaiwanaratingof5.7.Macao

andtheUnitedArabEmirateshadthesamescore,

whileHongKongwasfarsuperior(8.3),andChina wasfarworse(3.5).

Putanotherway,Taiwanisabouthalf-waybetween

entirelycleanandentirelycorrupt.Taiwanisnotthe

onlydemocracytoscoresopoorly,

buttheratingsshowthatTaiwanhasa

verydeepcorruptionproblem.

TheKMTwasnotoriouslycorrupt,

andwhenMahadservedasMinister

ofJusticeduringanearlierKMTgovernment,hiseffortstoprosecute

corruptionwerequashedbytheparty.

TheDPPhadwonelectionsasby

offeringitselfasthepartyofclean

government.Butittoofellinto

corruption.Prosecutorsbrought

crediblechargesagainstthewifeof

thePresidenthimself,allegingthat

shefiledfraudulentreceiptstoobtaincashfroma

discretionarypresidentialfund,andusedthemoneytobuydiamondringsandotherluxuryitems.

PresidentChen’sresponsewastoadmitthatthe

receiptswerefalsified,butclaimedthatthemoney

wasusedtopayforsecretdiplomaticprojects,

andthatasPresident,hehadtheauthority(which

isnowherestatedinTaiwaneselaw)todeclare

anythingastatesecretandpreventfurtherlegal

inquiry.

Bipartisantoleranceforthecultureofcorruption wasdemonstratedattheOctober2007funeralof

thegangsterChenChi-Li.Severalhigh-ranking

KMTofficialsortheirrepresentativesattendedthe

funeral—butsodidDPPrepresentatives.TheDPP

officialswerepayingtheirrespectstothememory

ofmanwhohadservedtimeinprisonforhisrole

inthe1984assassinationinSanFranciscoofan

Page 3

Rather than pro-

moting a positive

agenda, much of

the DPP’s rheto-

ric focused on

personal attacks

on Ma and his

family.

Put another way,

Taiwan is about

half-way between

entirely clean and

entirely corrupt.

Taiwan is not the

only democracy

to score so poorly,

but the ratings

show that Taiwan

has a very deep

corruption prob-

lem.



Page 4

Americancitizen,HenryLiu,becauseLiuhad

writtenasharplycriticalbiographyofChiangChing-

Kuo(thethen-dictatorofTaiwan,andthesonof

ChiangKai-Shek).

SomevoterswhohadbackedtheDPPin2000and2004concludedthattheDPPwasjustascorruptas

theKMT,andsotheyvotedforthe

KMTin2008withtheexpectation

thatatleasttheKMTwouldatleast

governcompetently.

The Economy TheDPPwasalsoblamedfor

slowingeconomicgrowthandrising

unemploymentduringitstenure.

Betweentheparties,thedifferencesoneconomicpolicyarenotlarge,but

thepartyinpowerisnaturallytheone

thatbearsthebruntofvoterwrath.

Thecorporateincometaxratewas

recentlyloweredto17.5%from

25%.However,thischange,modeled

onthegoodexamplesetbyIreland,whose12.5%

corporateincometaxratehelpedmakeIrelandthe

mostprosperousnationinEurope,cametoolateto

affecttheeconomysufficientlybeforetheelection.

Thestateenergymonopoly,TaiwanPower

Company,losesenormoussumsbysellingelectricity

andnaturalgasaccordingtogovernment-mandated

pricecaps.Pricesforwater,alsosetbythe

government,havenotrisenfor15years,leading

totremendouswaste,andalackofresourcesfor

investmentinwatertreatment,sothatmostof

Taiwan’scitiesspewuntreatedsewageintorivers

andtheocean.ThishardlyhelpsTaiwan’seffortsto

promoteitselfasasiteforeco-tourismandgreenhigh-techindustry.

IntheHeritageFoundation’s2008Economic

FreedomIndex,Taiwanranks26th-bestinthe

world,and6th-bestinAsia—behindHongKong,

Singapore,Australia,NewZealand,andJapan.(But

faraheadof119th-rankedChina).

TheHeritagescoresrangefrom1(nofreedom)to

100(completefreedom).Taiwan’soverallrating

is71.0,meaning“mostlyfree.”Thisisbasedon

strongscoresonGovernmentSize(87.8),Monetary

Freedom(83.3),TradeFreedom(86.7),and

moderatelygoodscoresonBusinessFreedom(70.7),FiscalFreedom(75.9),InvestmentFreedom

(70),andPropertyRights(70).Taiwanscorespoorly

onFreedomfromCorruption(59),LaborFreedom

(56.9),andFinancialFreedom(50).

Accordingtothecountryreportsectionofthe

HeritageIndex,startingabusinessinTaiwantakes

anaverageof48days;dismissinganemployeefor

poorperformanceislegallydifficult;andwork

hourregulationsarerigid.However,neitherof

Taiwan’smajorpartieshasindicatedmuchinterestinstreamliningsmallbusinessstart-ups,orin

reforminglaborlaws.

Ma’smajoreconomicproposal,thoughtupbyhis

Vice-PresidentVincentSiew,wasfora“Common

Market”withChina,althoughMa

wasquicklyforcedtoretreatfromany

suggestionofarealcommonmarket,

whichwouldallowtheimportoflabor

andagriculturalproductsfromChina.

Ma’scurrentproposalsaresimplyallowingregulardirectairlinkswith

China,allowingextensiveChinese

tourism,andallowingChineseto

buyrealestateinTaiwan.Maand

Hsiehbothfavoredlooseningcurrent

restrictionsonTaiwancorporate

investmentinChina.

Thepost-electionsurgesinTaiwan

stocksandthevalueoftheNew

TaiwanDollarprobablyreflectexcessiveoptimismabouthowmuch

theeffecttheexpandedbusinesswithChinawill

haveontheoveralleconomy.Ashort-termproperty

boomresultingfromaninfluxofChineseinvestors

mightMakeephispromiseof6%economicgrowth

(currently5.7%),andunemploymentreducedfrom

4%to3%.

Page 4

Some voters who

had backed the

DPP in 2000 and

2004 concluded

that the DPP was

just as corrupt

as the KMT, and

so they voted for

the KMT in 2008 with the expecta-

tion that at least

the KMT would

at least govern

competently.

The post-election

surges in Taiwan

stocks and the

value of the New

Taiwan Dollar

probably reflect

excessive opti-

mism about how

much the effect

the expanded

business with

China will have

on the overall

economy.



Page 5Page 5

Butinanycase,thevoterswerefedupwiththe

DPP’seconomicmanagement,anddecidedtogive

theotherteamachance.Atleast,aKMTexecutive

branchshouldprovidemorepredictableregulation

andlicensingthanintheDPPyears,wherevery

frequentchangesofcabinetministersandtheirsubordinatesresultedinanunstableregulatory

environment,withbureaucratslefttotheirpersonal

whims.Investorsseekingregulatorypermissionto

startprojectswereleftdanglingformonthsoryears

withoutfinalresponsestotheirapplications.

Preserving Taiwan’s IndependenceDuringtheDPP’spresidentialtenure,supportfor

so-called“re-unification”withChinahasdeclined

fromabout20%ofthepopulationto12%—roughly

thesamepercentageasthosewhothinkofthemselvesas“Chinese

only.”Taiwanisineverypractical

senseasovereign,independentstate.

Underinternationallaw,asovereign

governmentisonewhichcontrols

adefinedterritoryandpopulation.

Taiwaneasilymeetstheinternational

lawdefinitionof“sovereign.”

Allgovernmentaldecisionsfor

Taiwanaremadebyagovernment

chosenbythepeopleofTaiwan,andnodecisionsaremadebythe

dictatorshipinBeijing,whoseclaims

ofsovereigntyoverTaiwanarewishful

thinking.

Yetmanyothergovernments

andinternationalorganizations

pretendthatTaiwanisnotsovereign.Theresultis

humiliatingforTaiwandiplomatically,andTaiwan

citizensareoftenexcludedfromparticipationin

internationalfora.YetTaiwanstillhasdiplomaticrelationswithmostoftheworld,underthefiction

thattheseembassiesandconsulatesare“tradeand

culturalrelations”offices.(Taiwanalsohasformal

diplomaticrelationswithnearlytwodozennations.)

Exceptinthepretendworldofdiplomacy-speak,the

peopleofTaiwanaresovereignandindependent.

UnderChen,theDPPtookavarietyofstepsto

recognizetheobvious.Thesestepsconformedto

theConfucianprinciplethatthefirststepofgood

governmentis“torectifytheirnames”—tocall

thingswhattheyreallyare.2

Thus,theword“China”wasremovedfromsome

state-ownedcorporations.Passportsnowbearthe

word“Taiwan”alongwith“RepublicofChina.”

Inaddition,effortsweremadetodismantlethe

personalitycultthatChiangKai-Shekhadcreated

forhimself.The“ChiangKai-ShekInternational

Airport”wasrenamedforTaoyuan,thecounty

whereitislocated.

The“ChiangKai-ShekMemorial”—animmenseparkandmonumentinthecenterofTaipei,built

forChiangposthumouslybyhisKMTadmirers—

wasrenamed“NationalDemocracyMemorial

Hall.”GonearetheexhibitsshowingoffChiang

memorabilia,suchashisautomobilecollection.On

thetopfloorofthememorial,theimmensestatue

ofChiang(seatedinaLincolnMemorial-stylepose)

remains;forawhiletheairspaceintheroomwas

filledwithhundredsofdecorativekitesmadein

thetraditionofTaiwan’saboriginal

peoples.Atfloorlevel,photographsandtextdetailtheTaiwanesepeople’s

strugglefordemocracy—includingthe

strugglesagainstChiang.

Thenamerectificationcampaignhas

infuriatednotonlytheKMT,butalso

theChinesegovernment.Forhowever

muchMaohatedChiang,Chiangand

Maobothbelievedin“OneChina.”

Thenamerectificationcampaignreachedapeakwiththe2008

referendumvote—heldonthesame

dayasthepresidentialelection—for

Taiwantoapplyformembershipin

theUnitedNationsunderthenameof“Taiwan.”

During the

DPP’s presiden-

tial tenure, sup-

port for so-called

“re-unification”

with China has

declined from

about 20% of

the population to

12%—roughly

the same per-

centage as those

who think of

themselves as

“Chinese only.”

The name rec-

tification cam-

paign reached

a peak with the

2008 referendum

vote—held on the

same day as the

presidential elec-

tion—for Taiwan

to apply for mem-

bership in the

United Nations

under the name

of “Taiwan.”

http://davekopel.org/Misc/OpEds/Taiwans-right-to-UN-membership.htm

http://davekopel.org/Misc/OpEds/Taiwans-right-to-UN-membership.htm



Page 6

ThereferendumangeredtheU.S.StateDepartment

andPresidentBush,resultinginadozenstern

denunciationsfrommajorU.S.officials.The

denunciationswereavindicationofChinese

CommunistPartyGeneralSecretaryHuJintao’s

strategyofusingtheUnitedStatesasaChineseproxytocontaintheTaiwanindependence

movement.WhattheU.S.hasgotteninexchange,

otherthansomefavorableChinesevotesatthe

U.N.,isnotclear.Chinaissupposedlyhelpingwith

theNorthKoreaproblem,butthatroguestatestill

hasnuclearweapons.

Ontheonehand,theexcitementoverthe

referendumwasridiculous.Taiwanhasbeen

applyingforU.N.membershipeveryyearforthe

last15,andlastyear’sapplicationwasmadeunderthenameof“Taiwan.”TheKMTofferedacounter-

referendum,foraU.N.applicationunderthename

of“RepublicofChina”or“Taiwan”oranyother

“practical”andhonorablename.Nobodyatthe

StateDepartmentpitchedafitovertheKMT’s

referendum.Onelectionday,bothreferenda

receivedabout90%ofthevotescast,

butwerenotadoptedbecausefewer

than50%ofeligiblevotersvotedon

thereferenda.(Turnoutwasabout

75%ofeligiblevoters,andabouthalfofthepeoplewhodidvotedid

notpickupreferendaballots,which

requiredgoingtoaseparatetable.)

Thevotesdonotindicatethatthe

peopleofTaiwandonotwanttojoin

theU.N.Apost-electionpollshowed

that67%supportU.N.membership.3

However,Taiwan'svotersarewell

awarethatthemajordeterrenttoChineseconquestofTaiwanisthe

U.S.SeventhFleet,andthatastrong

relationshipwiththeU.S.isthe sine qua nonforthe

continuationofTaiwan’sindependence.

TherepeatedU.S.complaintsaboutthe“UNfor

Taiwan”referendumcausedseriousdamagetothe

DPP.TheU.N.referendumwastransparentlyan

exerciseindomesticpolitics,aimedtoboostpro-

DPPturnoutinthepresidentialelection.Given

China’sU.N.SecurityCouncilveto,itwasabsolutelycertainthatTaiwanwouldnotbeadmittedtothe

U.N.

De jureindependencewouldbenice,butmany

votersapparentlyfeltthat de factoindependence

waswhatreallymattered.SoinrejectingtheDPP

forpushingformalindependence

toofar,Taiwan’svoterswerenot

votingagainstindependence,but

werevoting,pragmatically,fordoing

whateverittakestomaintainthealliancewhichisthebasisoftheir

actual,presentindependence.

TheConfucianprincipleof“rectify

thenames”wasineffectreplacedby

theShakespearianone:“What’sina

name?”4

Maworkedeffectivelytomake

himselfthecandidateofpractical

independence.The2004KMTcandidate,LienChan,hadtraveled

toChinain2005,wherehereceived

aroyalwelcome,establishingdirect

KMTtieswiththeCommunistParty

ofChina(CCP).Thereasonableperceptionamong

manyTaiwanesewasthatLienwouldreadilysellout

TaiwanforpersonalgainforhimselfandhisKMT

cronies.

MahasnevertraveledtoChina.Instead,hemoved

closerandclosertowhatamountstoalightGreenposition.Afewyearsago,hehadbeensayingthat

“thefutureofTaiwanshouldbedecidedbypeople

onbothsidesofTaiwanStrait.”

Afewdaysbeforetheelection,ChinesePremier

WenJiabaoofferedtobegintalkswithTaiwanunder

theOneChinaguideline,andsaidthat“allthe

Page 6

... Taiwan's voters

are well aware

that the major

deterrent to

Chinese conquest

of Taiwan is the

U.S. Seventh

Fleet, and that a

strong relation-

ship with the

U.S. is the sine

qua non for the

continuation of

Taiwan’s inde-

pendence.

So in rejecting

the DPP for

pushing formal

independence too far, Taiwan’s

voters were not

voting against

independence,

but were voting,

pragmatically, for

doing whatever

it takes to main-

tain the alliance

which is the basis

of their actual, present indepen-

dence



Page 7

Chinesepeople,includingourTaiwancompatriots”

shoulddecideTaiwan’sfuture.Maretorted:

TheRepublicofChinaisasovereign

independentdemocraticstate.Thefutureof

TaiwanshouldbedecidedbyTaiwan’s

23-millionpeople,andnointervention

bythePRCistobetolerated.What

PRCPremierWenJiabaosaidwasnot

onlyrude,irrational,arrogant,and

absurd,butalsoself-righteous.And

itignoredthemainstreamopinionof

Taiwan’s23-millionpeople.Wewant

toexpressourmostseriousprotest.

Thesecondparagraphofthe

statementaffirmedaformulawhichtheDPP’sPresidentChenhad

announcedwhenChenfirsttook

office:

Ourpolicyhasalwaysbeen“AllforTaiwan,All

forthePeople.”Underthisspirit,wethinkthat

thethreenosthathavehelpedtomaintainthe

statusquo,“noreunificationwiththePRC,no

independenceonthepartofTaiwan,andnouse

offorcebyeithersideoftheStrait,”canbest

representTaiwan’smainstreamopinionandtheneedforcross-Straitrelations.

TheonlysignificantdifferencebetweentheDPP’s

approachandMa’sstatementwasthatMasaid

“RepublicofChina”ratherthan“Taiwan.”The

differenceisimportant,because“Taiwan”is

unquestionablyanationseparatefrom“China,”

whereasthe“theRepublicofChina”(whichwas

foundedin1911inChina,aftertheoverthrowofthe

lastemperor)isatermwhichatleasttheoretically

stillconnectsTaiwantothemainland.

AsapressreleasefromtheDPPnoted,Mahad

essentiallyadoptedtheDPP’sposition.

TheriotswhichbrokeoutinTibettwelvedays

beforetheelectionwereexpectedtohelptheDPP,

remindingpeopleofrepressionofoneofthecaptive

nationsintheChineseempire.(TheUigherpeople,

whoalsoliveinthewestoftheChineseempire,are

treatedevenworsethanTibetans,buttheyhaveno

DalaiLamatopresenttheircaseonaworldstage.)

Instead,TibetgaveMatheopportunitytoprove

histoughnessonChina.WhentheDPP’sFrank

HsiehwarnedthatTaiwanmightbecomelikeTibet,

Mascoffed,forasMasaid,unlikeTibet,“Taiwanis

sovereign.”MahadalsocalledChina’ssuppression

ofTibet“savageandstupid.”

Absurdly,thedaybeforetheelection,Hsieh

suggestedpostponingthevotesothatMaandhe

couldstageaTibetsolidaritysit-in.Besidesbeing

apatheticployofacandidatewhowasbehindin

thepolls,thecallforpostponingtheelectioncouldmakeavoterwonderiftheDPPwasreallymore

committedtoorderlydemocracythanthemodern

KMT.

Indeed,inJanuary,Chenhadmusedaboutimposing

martiallaw.Atthetime,therewasavigorousdebate

abouthowtodistributethereferendaballots.The

DPPwantedeveryvotertobegivenreferendaballots

atthesametimehewasgiventhepresidentialballot;

theKMTwantedtomakevotersgettheballots

separately.Undersupposedfearsthatconflictsatpollingplacesmightleadtoviolence,Chenraisedthe

specterofmartiallaw,soundingmorelikeaChiang

thanlikeademocraticreformer;hence,voterswho

wereafraidthattheKMTmightbackslidetoitspre-

democracytraditionshadmuchless

reasontotrusttheDPPasaguardian

ofdemocraticindependence.

Taiwan ConsciousnessIronically,thegrowthofTaiwan

nationalconsciousnessalsohelpedcreatetheDPP’sdefeat.Asnoted

above,thepercentageofthe

populationthatconsidersitself

Chinese-onlyissmallandshrinking.

ApluralityconsidersitselfTaiwanese-only,while

“TaiwaneseandChineseboth”isalsoalargeshareof

thepopulation.UndertheeightyearsofDPPrule,

Ma retorted:

“The Republic of

China is a sover-

eign independent

democratic state.

The future of

Taiwan should

be decided by

Taiwan’s 23-mil-

lion people, and

no intervention

by the PRC is to

be tolerated.”

A plurality

considers itself

Taiwanese-only,

while “Taiwanese

and Chinese

both” is also a large share of the

population.

http://www.kmtnews.net/client/eng/NewsArtical.php?REFDOCID=00arptm5n48ti4nx&TYPIDJump=00air79hymmrtyl0






Page 8

theshiftawayfromChinaconsciousnessandtowards

Taiwanconsciousnesshasbeensignificant,andpublic

dissatisfactionwithChenhimselfduringthelasttwo

yearsofhistenuredoesnotappearedtohaveslowed

thegrowthofTaiwanconsciousness.

Thisisahealthytrend.Forthousandsofyears,

theChineseandtheaboriginalpeoplesofTaiwan

developedseparately.Taiwanwasneverpartofthe

ancientChineseempires.During

the17thcentury,partofTaiwanwas

colonizedbytheDutch,whowere

inturndisplacedbyahalf-Japanese

half-ChinesewarlordnamedKoXinga.

KoXinga’ssonwounduponthewrong

sideofaChinesedynasticwar,andso

in1675,thewesternplainsofTaiwanbecameaChinesepossession,while

theeasternmountains,comprising

overhalftheisland’sterritory,

remainedinaboriginalhands.(Itwas

notuntil1878thattheChinesemade

evenanominalclaimtoruleeasternTaiwan,and

theiractualabilitytoexercisesovereigntytherewas

nil.)

Beginninginthe17thcentury,therewasextensive

immigrationtoTaiwanfromsouthernChina,particularlyFujianprovince,towhichwesternTaiwan

wasadministrativelylinked.Themainlanguageof

theseimmigrantsisTaiwanese,alsoknownasMin

Nan.OtherimmigrantsfromsouthChinaspokea

dialectoftheHakkalanguage.

WhileTaiwanwastreatedasaninsignificant,

barbaricfrontierbythemainlandgovernments,the

immigrantstoTaiwan,manyofwhomintermarried

withtheaborigines,developedtheirowncultural

practices,includingfrequentrevoltsagainstthecorrupt,oppressive,andincompetentgovernorssent

bymainland.5

WhenChiangKai-ShekfledtoTaiwan,heandhis

armyimposedaWhiteTerror,underwhichabout

200,000Taiwanesewereimprisonedbythepolice

state.ChiangalsoforciblySinicizedTaiwan,imposing

Mandarin(thelanguageofBeijing)asthenational

language.Infurtheranceofhisfantasythathewould

re-conquerthemainland,Taiwan’s

schoolsandmediawereforcedto

adoptapartylinethatTaiwanand

themainlandwereandalwayshad

beeninseparablepartsofOneChina.

Chiangmadesimilarclaimsabout

TibetandMongolia,althoughitwas

Maoin1950whoactuallyconquered

Tibet(whichhadbeenasovereign

nationformostofitslonghistory).

OuterMongoliawassavedfromChina

byitsalliancewiththeSovietUnion.

Educationalreformsandthe

constructionofpublicmonumentsandmuseumsunderDPPhaveaimedto

recovertheTaiwaneseculturewhichwassuppressed

undertheChiangdictatorship.Thede-sinicization

projectisoneofwhichJacquesDerridamighthave

approved:deconstructingthemythofthe“center”

(China’sMandarinnameisliterally“center-

nation”,zhong-guo)andempoweringthoseonthe

“periphery”(Taiwanitself,andparticularlythe

pre-1949TaiwanesewhodidnotliveinnorthTaiwan,

whichwasdominatedbythe1949mainlanders).

Taiwanconsciousnessatitsbestisabeautifulvision:

apeoplelongstrivingforfreedom

andself-government,andfinally

achievingit.Avibrant,outward-

looking,commercialnation—

confidentlyengagingwithJapanand

thePhilippines(whoseouterislands

arejustasclosetoTaiwanislandasis

mainlandChina)andwiththebroader

world.Innovative,freedom-loving,and

orientedtointernationaltrade,Taiwanistheoppositeoftheoftenstagnant,

self-satisfied,andxenophobicChina.

TheNewTaiwanembracesequality

andrespectforallitspeople,whethertheybethe

descendantsofaboriginesfrom5,000yearsago,or

thepeoplewholeftthemainlandinsearchofabetter

lifein1690orin1949,orTaiwan’snewestcitizens—

Educational

reforms and

the construc-

tion of public

monuments and

museums under

DPP have aimed

to recover the

Taiwanese culture

which was sup-

pressed under the

Chiang dictator-

ship.

Innovative, free-

dom-loving, and

oriented to inter-

national trade,

Taiwan is the

opposite of the

often stagnant,

self-satisfied,

and xenophobic

China.

For thousands

of years, the

Chinese and

the aboriginal

peoples of Taiwan

developed sepa-

rately. Taiwan was never part

of the ancient

Chinese empires.



Page 9

suchasthemanyVietnamesebrideswhoareraising

familieswithTaiwan-bornhusbands.

Sofar,sogood.Butinpractice,andespecially

duringelectioncampaigns,thingsweredifferent.

TheViewfromTaiwan,ablogwrittenbyastrongly

pro-DPPAmericanexpatriatelivinginKaoshiung,

reportsthatin2008,theDPP’spresidential

campaignspeechesweregivenalmostexclusively

inTaiwanese.ThemessagetoMandarin-speaking

descendantsofthe1949mainlanderswasthatthe

DPPwasnotreallyinterestedinearningtheirvotes.

DPPusedcodewordstopolarizeitssupporters

againstthedescendantsofthe1949immigrants.

TheViewfromTaiwanrecounted:

WenttoameetingofFAPA,the[DeepGreen]

mainpro-TaiwangroupintheUS,inTaipeion

Thursday.Itwaspainfultowatch.Sometimes

IcontemplatetakingoutROCcitizenship,but

thebravenewworldtheyadvocatedoesn’t

includemeormychildren—andifastrong

supporterlikemegetsthatvibe,howthen

theyoungonthestreetwhochatterina

delightfullyliquidlingothatispredominately

Mandarin,withleavenofTaiwaneseand

English?EverypersonattheFAPAmeetwasolderthanI,andtheywerespeaking

Taiwanese.Notonespeakerortwo,

butEvery.Single.One….Notone

ofthosepeopletookthetimeto

composeanddelivertheirspeech

inMandarin,alanguagespokenby

everyoneintheroom—and,mind

you,alanguageunderstoodbythe

peopletheymosturgentlyneedto

communicatewith:theChinese.Of

coursetherewasnoEnglish,thelanguageoftheinternationalmedia.Brillianttoholda

presseventinalanguagethepressdon’tspeak.

Yes,Mandarinisthelanguageofthehated

colonialistKMT.Yes,Mandarinwasimposed

atgunpoint.Butifyouwantpeopletolisten

toyou,youhavetospeaktheirlanguage.For

allitsgapingflawsanddebasedvalues, the

KMT offers this multiethnic island a multiethnic

vision. The DPP and its supporters still do not.

(emphasisinlastsentencesadded).

Moreover,likeU.S.Republicanpoliticianswho

in1884werestillwavingthebloodyshirtofthe

AmericanCivilWar,theDPPcouldnotleta

nationalelectionpasswithoutmakinganissueout

ofthe228incident.TheDPPwasright,inthepast,

topushfortellingthetruthabout228,discussionof

whichwasillegalundertheChiangdictatorship.

Butaterriblecrimeperpetratedin1947isnotmuch

reasontovoteforsomebodyin2008.Nobodywho

wasresponsiblefor228wasonthe2008ballot.

Indeed,MaYing-Jeouhadnotevenbeenbornin

1947.Nevertheless,inhisroleasaKMTleader,heapologizedfor228.Forsomevoters,thiswasgood

enough,andcontinuedattentiontothegrievances

ofthepastwaslessimportantthanchoosinga

PresidentwithplanstomoveTaiwanforward.

ItwastheDPPgovernmentwhichcreatedaCouncil

forHakkaAffairs,aHakkachannelonthePublic

TelevisionService,andHakkaStudiescoursesin

universities.YetitwasMa,whospeaksexcellent

Hakka,whospentweekscampaigningintensively

inHakkaareas,speakingthelocallanguage.OfcourseMaandhisrunning-mateVincentSiewalso

campaignedinMandarin,theonelanguagethat

everyoneinTaiwanunderstands.

Whowasthebestcandidateforavotercommitted

toTaiwanconsciousness?Thecandidatewhose

partypanderedtointra-islandethnic

divisions,ortheonewhoworkedhard

forthevotesof allthepeople?

Future Prospects

IthasbeenremarkedthatperhapstheDPP’sgreatestaccomplishment

hasbeenmakingtheKMTgreener.

Longbeforethe2000election,

politicalcompetitionfromtheDPP

hadforcedtheKMTtogovernbetter.

VisitorswhorememberwhatTaiwanwaslikeinthe

1960sareimpressedwiththetransformationofugly,

...the KMT offers

this multiethnic

island a mul-

tiethnic vision.

The DPP and its

supporters still

do not. It has been

remarked that

perhaps the

DPP’s greatest

accomplishment

has been making

the KMT greener.

http://michaelturton.blogspot.com/2008/03/election-rejection.html

http://michaelturton.blogspot.com/2008/03/election-rejection.html



Page 10

filthycitiesintoclean,vibrantmetropoliseswith

parksandexcellentmasstransit.

President-electMaisnotaDeepGreen,willingto

takegreatrisksinpursuitof de jureindependence.

Buthewaselectedas,ineffect,apaleGreen. 6The

DPP’syearsinpowermovedthepoliticalcenterina

DPPdirection.

Taiwan’sindependenceisnowanirreversiblefact

ofpoliticallife,eveniftheneedtoplacatetheU.S.

StateDepartmentmeansthatTaiwan’sPresident

cannotsaysooutloud.Aswith

thebroken1951“TreatyofAmity”

betweenTibetandChina,the

ChinesepromisetoHongKong—

“OneChina,TwoSystems”—hasturnedouttohavealotmore“one

China”than“twosystems,”except

inregardtoeconomicfreedom.As

ofDecember2007,only18%of

Taiwanesebelievethat“OneChina,

TwoSystems”isaviableformulafor

dealingwithcross-straitrelations.

Maisrhetoricallycommittedto“One

China,twosystems,twodifferent

meanings,”butTaiwanesepublicopinionforbidsanypoliticalintegrationwithan

undemocraticChina.

AftertakingofficeonMay20,Mawillenjoya

honeymoonperiodprolongedbythepro-blue

orientationofmostofTaiwan’smedia.Hewillfacea

toughchallengeindealingwiththeKMTlegislature,

whosesuper-majoritydoesnotneedMa’sapproval

topasslaws.Evenaspartyleader,hewasunable

togettheKMT-majoritylegislaturetopasssome

importantdefenseappropriations.Hispresidencycouldeasilyberuinedbythebackwards-looking,

corrupt,oldguardoftheKMT,thepartywhichnow

dominatesthelegislature(theLegislativeYuan,or

LY).

Mahasajustifiedreputationasanaffableman,

andintheshortterm,hispersonalskillswillhelp

himimproverelationswiththeU.S.andChina.But

healsohasareputationforbeingeasilypressured,

leavinghim,andTaiwan,vulnerabletoKMT’s

DeepBluetroglodytes.PresidentMa

mayalsobevulnerabletobehind-

the-scenespressureexertedby

China—especiallywhenexertedvia

Taiwancompaniesdoingbusinessin

China,whoarereadilycoercedinto

pushingtheChineseCommunist

Party’sagenda.AftertheTiananmen

Squareatrocityin1989,itwas

TaiwanesebusinessmenwithChinese

connectionswhowerethemain

politicalforceurgingTaiwantoignore

thesanctionsthatthecivilizedworldhadimposed

ontheBeijingdictatorship.

Chinacurrentlyhas1,328short-rangeDongfeng

11andDF15ballisticmissilesaimedatTaiwan.

Indifferentways,theKMTandtheDPPhave

bothbeenresponsibleforaseriousdeclineover

thelastdecadeinTaiwan’sabilitytodefenditself

fromChina.Bothpartiesnowagreethatatleast

threepercentoftheGrossDomesticProduct

shouldbespentondefense,butchoicesforhowto

spenddefensemoneyhavetoooftenbeenbased

onsymbolismratherthanhard-headedanalysisofdefenseneeds.

Taiwancouldnotdefenditselfinalong-termwar

withChina,butTaiwancouldhardenitsland-based

defenses,andimproveitsseaandairdefensesso

thatstrategistsoftheChinesePeople’sLiberation

Army(PLA)couldhavenoconfidencethatafirst,

second,orthirdwaveofChineseassaultsonTaiwan

wouldbeguaranteedtoleaveChinainsecure

controlofanentireislandwithitsvaluableeconomic

infrastructureavailableforChineseexploitation.

Indeed,theBushadministration’swillingness

toactasamouthpieceforChinainpressuring

Taiwanagainstmovementtowards de jure

independenceshouldbeunderstoodinthecontext

ofadministrationandCongressionalfrustration

with yearsofTaiwanesefailuretofollowthrough

Ma has a justi-

fied reputation as

an affable man,

and in the short

term, his per-

sonal skills will

help him improve

relations with the

U.S. and China.

Taiwan’s inde-

pendence is now

an irreversible

fact of political life, even if the

need to placate

the U.S. State

Department

means that

Taiwan’s

President cannot

say so out loud.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL30957.pdf

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL30957.pdf



Page 11

onalready-approvedarmspurchases,andongrossly

insufficientlevelsofgeneraldefensespendingin

Taiwan.

AmorerobustTaiwanesedefenseforcewouldgive

PresidentMamorebargainingpowerwithChina,

asChinesemoderatescouldcrediblytellthePLA

hardlinersthatamilitaryoptionfortakingTaiwanis

unrealistic.MuchofcandidateMa’sWhitePaperon

DefensePolicyisvague,andconsistsofgeneralities

andplatitudes.7However,hehasspokenoftheneed

tohardenairandnavalbasesagainstafirstwaveof

Chinesemissilesandfighterplaneattacks,andof

strengtheningthesurvivabilityofthecommandand

communicationsstructure.8

AmericanappeasementadvocateswhocontendthattheU.S.mustaccommodateitselfto

theriseofChina,andeventuallytoa

Chinese AnschlussofTaiwan,areas

wrong-headedastheirpredecessors

ofthe1970swhosawtheSovietrise

asirreversible.Inbothcases,the

pessimistsfailedtorecognizethe

inherentfragilityofdictatorships.It

wasnothistoricallyinevitablethat

Lithuania,Ukraine,Armenia,and

othercaptivenationswouldalwaysberuledbyadictatorshipinMoscow.

Norisithistoricallyinevitablethat

theTibetans,Uighers,Mongols,

orTaiwanesemustberuledbya

dictatorshipinBeijing.

WhateverthedirectionofU.S.policy

towardsChina,afree,democratic,and

sovereignTaiwanisthefoundation.

OneofTaiwan’smost-internationallyesteemed

scholars,Dr.LinChong-Pinwrites:

HowevertheU.S.eventuallydecidestoface

theriseofChina,Taiwanisindispensible.To

engagetherisingChina,Taiwanisthebeacon

forChina’sdemocracy;tocontainit,Taiwan

guardsthemostvitalportalofthefirstisland

chain;andtoaccommodateit,Taiwanstandsas

abuffer.9

TheU.S.government’spoorrelationswithPresident

Chen’sadministrationwereexacerbatedbecausethe

U.S.,inexcessivedeferencetoChinese

sensibilities,generallyrefusedtoallow

high-levelU.S.andTaiwanofficialsto

communicatewitheachotherdirectly

andfrequently.The2008electionof

PresidentMaprovidesanopportunity

fortheU.S.tostoplettingChinaset

thetermsofAmerica’sowndiplomatic

communications.

The2008electionintheUnitedStates

offersanopportunityforAmericanstoconsiderwhethertocontinue

apolicyofaccommodationwith

China—resemblingtheNixon-Ford-Carterapproach

totheSovietUnion.Orwhethertoconsiderthe

lessonsofPresidentReagan’sSovietpolicy,and

begintolookforwaystostrengthentheprotectionof

thefreenationswhicharemostthreatenedbyChina,

andtoenvisionalong-termstrategyforfreedomof

thecaptivenationsoftheChineseempire,andfor

freedomfortheChinesepeoplethemselves.

American

appeasement

advocates who

contend that the

U.S. must accom-

modate itself to

the rise of China,

and eventu-

ally to a Chinese

Anschluss of Taiwan, are as

wrong-headed as

their predecessors

of the 1970s who

saw the Soviet

rise as irrevers-

ible.

The 2008 elec-

tion of President

Ma provides an

opportunity for

the U.S. to stop

letting China

set the terms of

America’s own

diplomatic com-

munications.



Page 12

Endnotes 1 “Chuang again apologizes over Ma remarks,” China Post,Mar. 27, 2008.

2 From the Analects of Confucius:

If a king were to entrust you with a territory which you

could govern according to your ideas, what would you dofirst?

Confucius replied: “My first task would certainly be to rec-tify the names."

The puzzled disciple asked: “Rectify the names? Is this ajoke?”

Confucius replied: "If the names are not correct, if they do not match realities, language has no object. If languageis without an object, action becomes impossible—and there-fore all human affairs disintegrate and their managementbecomes pointless and impossible. Hence, the very first taskof a true statesman is to rectify the names."

3 Taipei Times, Mar. 28, 2008.

4 William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet, act 2, scene 2, lines1-2:

What’s in a name? That which we call a roseBy any other name would smell as sweet.

5 Although a particular uprising of a colonized people may notsucceed, the uprising itself affirms the colonized people’s con-tinuing desire for self-determination, which is an inherent naturalright, and which is recognized by international law. When theIrish people began the Easter Uprising of 1916, they issued aProclamation of the Republic which stated in part:

We declare the right of the people of Ireland to the owner-ship of Ireland, and to the unfettered control of Irish desti-nies, to be sovereign and indefeasible. The long usurpationof that right by a foreign people and government has not

extinguished the right, nor can it ever be extinguished exceptby the destruction of the Irish people. In every generationthe Irish people have asserted their right to national freedomand sovereignty: six times during the past three hundredyears they have asserted it in arms. Standing on that funda-mental right and again asserting it in arms in the face of theworld, we hereby proclaim the Irish Republic as a SovereignIndependent State, and we pledge our lives and the lives ofour comrades-in-arms to the cause of its freedom, of its wel-fare, and its exaltation among the nations.

The 1916 Irish Uprising was suppressed within a few days, butit set the stage for a war of independence which finally restoredthe sovereignty of the Irish people in 1922.

6 To be precise, Green and Blue make Cyan, which looks like a

pale Blue.

7 “Ma/Siew White Paper on Defense Policy: A New Military fora Secure and Peaceful Taiwan,” (Summary), Sept. 2, 2007. Theone significant innovation is a desire to more away from con-scription, and towards a volunteer force.

8 Ma Ying-Jeou, “A SMART Strategy for National Security,”speech before the Association for the Promotion of NationalSecurity, Republic of China, Feb. 26, 2008.

9 Lin Chong-Pin, “China’s Emerging Grand Strategy,” paperpresented at University of West Bohemia, Pilsen, Czech Republic,conference on “Contemporary Security Dilemmas: Reflections onSecurity in Central Europe and East Asia,” Oct. 31, 2006. Dr.Lin is head of the Foundation on International and Cross-StraitStudies, and is also a professor of International Relations atNational Chengchi University.

INDEPENDENCEINSTITUTEisanon-profit,

non-partisanColoradothinktank.Itisgovernedbya

statewideboardoftrusteesandholdsa501(c)(3)tax

exemptionfromtheIRS.Itspublicpolicyresearch

focusesoneconomicgrowth,education,reform,local

governmenteffectiveness,andConstitutionalrights.

JONCALDARAisPresidentoftheIndependence

Institute.

DAVIDKOPELisResearchDirectorofthe

IndependenceInstitute.

NOTHINGWRITTENhereistobeconstrued

asnecessarilyrepresentingtheviewsofthe

IndependenceInstituteorasanattempttoinfluence

anyelectionorlegislativeaction.

PERMISSIONTOREPRINTthispaperinwholeor

inpartisherebygrantedprovidedfullcreditisgiven

totheIndependenceInstitute.

MorearticlesonTaiwanareavailableat

independenceinstitute.organdathttp://davekopel.

org/international.htm#Asia.Kopel'sChinese

languagewebsite(inbothtraditionalandsimplified)

iskopel.tw.TaiwanPresidentialElectionAnalysis

withDavidKopel.OriginallybroadcastonKBDI-

TVchannel12,Denver,April4,2008.Filmedat

thePublicTelevisionServicestation,Taipei,Taiwan,

March20,2008.KopelinterviewsDr.YenChen-Sen

fromtheNationalChengchiUniversity’sInstituteof

InternationalRelationsandDr.LaiI-ChungfromTaiwanThinktank.Videoforthehour-longprogram

isavailableat:http://www.kbdi.org/on_demand/

video_player.cfm?series=20943835.

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Taiwan’s 2008 Presidential Elections: An Analysis of What Happened, and What May Happen Next