Takeyasu ItoUniversity of Tennessee/Oak Ridge National Laboratory

EDM Cost and Schedule Review February, 2005

Beam Splitter / State Selector,

Polarizing Magnet, and Spin Flipper

•WBS 1.2.1, 1.2.2, 1.2.3: Splitter/State Selector Main Body•WBS 1.2.4, 1.2.5, 1.2.6: Polarizing Magnet•WBS 1.3.1, 1.3.2, 1.3.3: Spin Flipper

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SNS FNBP UCN Beamline and EDM Experiment Layout

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Purpose, Functions and Design Goals

• Split the beam into two, to feed the two measurement cells

• Polarize neutrons• Flip the polarization of each beam

independently• Maximize the beam delivered to the

measurement cells

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Principle of Polarizer/Splitter with Polarizing Supermirror

Polarizing supermirror:One spin state: reflected up to the critical angle c

psm

The other spin state: transmitted at all angles

cguide c

psm

cguide

If the input guide has m=1.5, and PSM has m=2.4, then = 14mrad.Need 10 m for 15cm wide guide

In order for one spin state to be 100% reflected,

cpsm

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One Possible Layout

12 cm wide, m=3.5 straight guide(buried under shielding)

Diverginghorn (7 m)

30 cm wide, m=1.5straight guide ( 2m)

Polarizer/Splitter (14 m)

m=2.4 polarizing supermirrorcoated on thin Si wafer

Rudimentary (2-dimentional) Monte Carlo study indicated 30% transmission and 90% polarization.

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Cost Estimate - Overview (WBS 1.2)

• Design– $63,200 + $27,176

• Procurement– $953,940+ $410,194

• Installation– $12,640 + $5,435

Total + Contingency= $1,029,780 +$442,805Note: The diverging horn is not included in the budget although it is not included in the FNPB baseline. If this is proven to be beneficial for other experiments at the FNPB UCN line, we expect some kind of cost sharing between FNPB and EDM.

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Cost Estimate - Design (WBS 1.2.1)

• Conceptual design/Monte Carlo simulation– Physicist x 100hrs = $0

• Shop drawings– Engineer x 200hrs = $31,600

• Preparation of equipment spec– Engineer x 200hrs = $31,600

Total + Contingency = $63,200 + $27,176

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Cost Estimate - Procurement (WBS1.2.2)

• Preparation for procurement– Physicist x 30hrs = $0– Engineer x 30hrs = $4,740

• Splitter/State Selector– Engineering Design + Fabrication = $949,200

(=$840,000+13% overhead)

Total + Contingency = $953,940+ $410,194

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Splitter/State Selector System

• Basis for estimate– Supermirror guides $30k/m for m=3.5 * Note: price of coating goes as m4

– Si wafer $30 / 4-inch disk * From semiconductor industry, roughness ~ 5Å

(source J.J.Ferme from Seso)• Cost estimate

– $30k/m x 14m x 2 = $840 k * Factor 2 for coating Si wafer and constructing

more complicated system than straight guide

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Example: SNS FNPB UCN Beamline

• Guides = $25.1K/m• Vacuum housing=$3.84K/m• Support and Adjustment fixtures=$790/m

*Based on quote from Swiss Neutronics on FNPB UCN beamline with the following parameters:– The guide size is 100mm x 120mm– The guide will have m=3.5 all sides– The guide is straight– The guide has a total length of 30m

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Cost Estimate - Installation (WBS1.2.3)

• Installation– Technician x 80hrs = $12,640

• Oversight– Physicist x 40hrs = $0

Total + contingency = $12,640 + $5,435

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4Design AND manufacturing

2Material cost AND laborrate

Design OR manufacturing

1Same for allMaterial cost OR labor rate

Risk weightScheduleCostTechnical

Technical, cost, and schedule risk weights

15%Engineering judgmentNew design, way beyond the current state-of-the-art

10%Top-down estimate from analogous programsNew design, development of new technology whichadvances state-of-the-art

8%Delays completion of critical pathsubsystem item

In-house estimate for item with minimalexperience and minimal in-housecapability

New design, requires some R&D but does not advancethe state-of-the-art

6%In-house estimate for item with minimalexperience but related to existingcapabilities

New design, different from established designs orexisting technology

4%Delays completion of non-critical pathsubsystem item

In-house estimate based on previous similarexperience

New design, nothing exotic

3%Vendor quote with some design sketchesExtensive modifications to an existing design

2%No schedule impact on any other itemVendor quote from established drawingsMinor modifications to an existing design

1%Off-the-shelf or catalog itemExisting design and off-the-shelf hardware

Risk factorScheduleCostTechnical

Technical, cost, and schedule risk factors

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Cost Estimate - Contingencyfor WBS 1.2.1-3

• Technical– Risk factor=10%– Risk weight=2

• Cost– Risk factor=15%– Risk weight=1

• Schedule– Risk factor=8

Total percentage contingency = 43%

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Estimate for Duration

• Design: 88 days + 43% float – Conceptual design: 100 hours– Shop Drawing: 200 hours– Preparation of equipment spec: 200hours

• Procurement: 1 year + 43% float• Installation: 14 days + 43% float

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Cost and Schedule Estimate for Polarizing Magnet (WBS 1.2.4-6)

• Design– Design work by physicists– $0– 255 days

• Procure– $158,200+ $68,026– 183 days

• Install– $12,640 + $5,435– 21 days

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Cost and Schedule Estimate for Spin Flipper (WBS1.3.1-3)

• Design– Design work by physicists– $0– 21 days

• Procure– Flippers: $40,000– Power supplies, etc: $36,000– Total: $85,880 + $36,928– 183 days

• Install– $6,320 + $2,718– 14 days

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Summary

•Splitter/State selector (WBS 1.2)•$1,200,620 +$516,266•662 days

•Spin Flippers (WBS 1.3)•$92,220 + $39,646•317 days