Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & TruthsFinance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Rental and Leasing Retail Trade Manufacturing Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodations, and

Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & Truths

HOME’s 18th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference

October 22, 2019

C H A N N E LI S L A N D S

GLOBAL ECONOMICRE SEARCH

IN STITUTE FOR

California StateUniversity

Support

Housing Myths & Truths

1 Ventura County is an expensive place to live in

2 Ventura County does not have the right jobs to afford housingin Ventura County

Outline

1 Ventura County Currently

2 Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors

3 Analysis of Income and Home Ownership

4 Conclusion

Outline




4 Conclusion

Age and Gender Composition, 2017, Ventura County

Female

Male

0 25 50 75Age

Education Level of the Population, 2005 and 2017,Ventura County

N/A or no schooling

Nursery school to grade 4

Grade 5, 6, 7, or 8

Grade 9

Grade 10

Grade 11

Grade 12

1 year of college

2 years of college

4 years of college

5+ years of college

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

2017

2005

Labor Force Participation and Unemployment, VenturaCounty

75.5

76.0

76.5

77.0

77.5

78.0

78.5

Labo

r F

orce

P

artic

ipat

ion

(%)

4

6

8

10

2008 2012 2016

Une

mpl

oym

ent

Rat

e (%

)

Industry Breakdown of Employed Population, 2017,Ventura County

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Mining

Active Duty Military

Utilities

Transportation and Warehousing

Information and Communications

Wholesale Trade

Public Administration

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing andHunting

Other Services (Except PublicAdministration)

Construction

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, andRental and Leasing

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Arts, Entertainment, Recreation,Accommodations, and Food Services

Professional, Scientific, Management,Administrative, and Waste Management

Services

Educational, Health and Social Services

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

●

●

●●

$60,000

$90,000

$120,000

$150,000


●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Education, Health and Social Services

Mining


Utilities



Wholesale Trade




Construction


Retail Trade

Manufacturing



Services


0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

●

●

●●

$60,000

$90,000

$120,000

$150,000


●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Education, Health and Social Services

Information and

Communications

Mining


Utilities



Wholesale Trade




Construction


Retail Trade

Manufacturing



Services


0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

●

●

●●

$60,000

$90,000

$120,000

$150,000

Comparison of County Residents Employment to CountyIndustry Jobs, 2017, Ventura County

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●

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●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Mining


Utilities



Wholesale Trade




Construction


Retail Trade

Manufacturing



Services


0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

●

●

Share of Employment of County Residents

Share of Jobs in the County

Nominal and Real Incomes, Ventura County

$65,000

$70,000

$75,000

$80,000

$85,000

2007 2010 2013 2016

Inco

me/

Rea

l Inc

ome

Median household income (2017 dollars)

Median household income (nominal)

Population and Housing Growth in Ventura County

100

101

102

103

104

105

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Population index

Housing index

Average Household Size Trends, Ventura County

2.75

2.85

2.95

3.05

2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Ave

rage

hou

seho

ld s

ize

All residents Owners Renters

Home Ownership in Ventura County

62

64

66

68

Hom

eow

ners

hip

rate

s (%

)

−2−1

012

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Cha

nge

(%)

Home Price and Rent Trends, Ventura County

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Med

ian

Sal

es P

rice

$2,000

$2,250

$2,500

$2,750

$3,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Med

ian

Ren

tal P

rice

All

Hom

es

Home Price and Rent Trends, Ventura County

100

120

140

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Indi

ces Price Index

Rent Index

Housing Burden

A household is considered to be cost-burdened ifspending more than 30 percent of their income forhousing costs

Housing Burden, 2017, Ventura County

25.0%

50.0%

75.0%

2005 2010 2015

Sha

re o

f hou

seho

lds

burd

ened

Quartile 1 2 3 4

Housing Burden, 2017, Ventura County

Renters Owners

2005 2010 2015 2005 2010 2015

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

75.0%

Sha

re o

f hou

seho

lds

burd

ened

Quartile 1 2 3 4

Current Ventura County Conditions

• Ventura County has been experiencing historically lowunemployment levels and residents are largely working withinthe county

• Housing stock in Ventura County has not kept up withpopulation growth and we now see lower home ownershiprates and increased household sizes for renters

• With stagnant real incomes and increased home and rentalprices, a large share of Ventura County residents arehousing-burdened

• Burdens have increased for lower half of the incomedistribution

Outline




4 Conclusion

Comparison of Age Trends

35

36

37

38

2005 2010 2015

Ave

rage

Age

California (excluding Ventura) Ventura County

Comparison of Age Trends

34

35

36

37

38

2005 2010 2015

Ave

rage

Age

Los Angeles County

San Luis Obispo + Santa Barbara Counties

Ventura County

Comparison of Education Levels

• Education levels in Ventura County are comparable to Statelevels and that of our neighboring counties

• All areas characterized by a majority of people holding highschool diplomas or higher education

Comparison of Unemployment Rates

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(%)

California excluding Ventura

Los Angeles County


Ventura County

Comparison of Commute Times, 2017

Comparison of Household Sizes

Owners

Renters

2005 2010 2015

2.62.72.82.93.03.1

2.62.72.82.93.03.1

Ave

rage

hou

seho

ld s

ize

California (excluding Ventura) Ventura County

Comparison of Household Sizes

Owners

Renters

2005 2010 2015

2.62.83.0

2.62.83.0

Ave

rage

hou

seho

ld s

ize

Los Angeles County


Ventura County

Comparison of 2017 Home Ownership Rates

2005 2017

0

20

40

60

Hom

eow

ners

hip

rate

s (%

)


Los Angeles County


Ventura County

Comparison of Median Sales Prices

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Med

ian

Sal

e P

rice

California

Ventura County


$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Med

ian

Sal

e P

rice

Los Angeles County

San Luis Obispo County

Santa Barbara County

Ventura County


$510,000

$540,000

$570,000

$600,000

2017 2018 2019

Med

ian

Sal

e P

rice

Los Angeles County



Ventura County

Comparison of Median Rents

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Med

ian

Ren

tal P

rice

California

Ventura County

Comparison of Median Rents

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Med

ian

Ren

tal P

rice

Los Angeles County



Ventura County

Comparison of Housing Burdens, 2017

Third Income Quartile Fourth Income Quartile

Bottom Income Quartile Second Income Quartile

California(excludingVentura)

LosAngelesCounty

San LuisObispo+ SantaBarbaraCounties

VenturaCounty

California(excludingVentura)

LosAngelesCounty

San LuisObispo+ SantaBarbaraCounties

VenturaCounty

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

Sha

re o

f Hou

seho

lds

Bur

dene

d

Ventura County Compared to California and Neighbors

• No major differences in age, education, employment orcommute times

• Ventura County has higher home ownership rates than all theareas we compared to

• Housing burdens for Ventura County are comparable tohousing burdens in the state and of our neighbors

Outline




4 Conclusion

Home Ownership and Income

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45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

$60,000 $70,000 $80,000Real Household Income (2017 Dollars)

Hom

eonw

ersh

ip R

ates

●

●

●

●

Los Angeles County

Ventura County



Home Ownership and Income

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45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

$60,000 $70,000 $80,000Real Household Income (2017 Dollars)

Hom

eonw

ersh

ip R

ates

●

●

●

●

Los Angeles County

Ventura County



Required Median Household Income to Achieve Ventura’sHome Ownership Rates

●

●

●

●

●

●California excluding Ventura

Los Angeles County

San Luis Obispo + SantaBarbara Counties

$65,000 $70,000 $75,000 $80,000 $85,000 $90,000

● ●Current Required

Wages per Job Comparison

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

2005 2010 2015

Qua

rter

Wag

es p

er J

ob (

$)


Ventura County

Becoming More Like Santa Barbara, Less Like Los Angeles

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

2005 2010 2015

Qua

rter

Wag

es p

er J

ob (

$)

Los Angeles County


Ventura County

Top and Bottom Employment Sectors by Growth2004-2018

$48K

$38K

$22K

$75K$91K$70K

90

120

150

180

2004 2008 2012 2016

Em

ploy

men

t ind

ex (

2004

= 1

00)

Health care and social assistance

Educational services

Accommodation and food services

Information

Finance and insurance

Manufacturing

Ventura County’s Relatively High Home Ownership Rates

• Relative to its neighbors, Ventura County has the highesthome ownership rates

• Higher household incomes than in neighboring areas mayexplain differences in home ownership rates

• Employment income alone becoming increasingly insufficientto afford housing in Ventura County

• Uncertain whether current relative good conditions aresustainable given our employment trajectory

Outline




4 Conclusion

Housing Myths & Truths

1 Ventura County is an expensive place to live in

• As in much of the state, people make sacrifices to live inbeautiful Ventura County

• Evidence suggests that relative to our neighbors and the stateof California we are actually doing okay

2 Ventura County does not have the right jobs to afford housingin Ventura County

• Currently the employment of our residents seems to match thejobs available in the county

• Being able to afford living in Ventura County on employmentwages alone seems increasingly difficult

Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & Truths

HOME’s 18th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference

October 22, 2019

C H A N N E LI S L A N D S

GLOBAL ECONOMICRE SEARCH

IN STITUTE FOR

California StateUniversity

Documents

Taking a Closer Look: Housing Myths & TruthsFinance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Rental and Leasing Retail Trade Manufacturing Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodations, and