Taking JHSAT International

Roy Fox

9 August 2006

Rationale for JHSAT International Approach

•How we do the International portion of IHST is critical to success or failure of meeting the IHST goals.

•Critical issues to be discussed–Accuracy–Creditability–Shareholder Ownership–Consistent Process Control

Basic Responsibilities IHST• Goal settings• Worldwide InvolvementJHSAT• Identify root causes and interventions (data driven)• Measure actual fleet effectiveness toward 80% reductionJHSIT• Develop Implementation approaches and implement

Interventions.• Measure implementation progress

JHSIT Dilemmas1. Operations/regulations are country specific. There is no one set

of regulations.2. Most Implementations will be done and must fit within a

country’s regulations/limits.3. Some Implementations will be common worldwide. Many

Implementations may be included voluntary.4. Implementation approaches may vary country to country and

may best be addressed by regional organization.There needs to be a JHSIT lead (core) group that coordinates &

guides JHSIT regional teams (subgroups) in their regional efforts.

JHSIT lead group will develop worldwide implementations as consistent as possible and monitor implementation progress of JHSIT regional teams.

JHSAT Dilemmas1. Intervention recommendations MUST be data driven. Every

recommendation should be based on accurate frequency of occurrence.2. Different pockets of accident datasets exist around the world.

• Different definition of what is considered an “accident”.• Different quality of information in accident report.• Many government reports are not released to the public, especially those of

a military service.

3. Different exposures (fleet flight hours)• Accurate fleet flight hours are not available in most countries.

4. Different operating rules, regulations and limitations. Implementation is primarily driven within a country regulations although some interventions may be done voluntary.

IHST aim is to direct/guide a worldwide reduction goal.The stakeholders in each country are part of the present problem and

must be part of the solution within their country.Data analyses and resulting interventions recommended must be mindful

of the regional limitations.

Segmented Approach Used Rather than All Work Done by the JHSAT Lead Group

1. JHSAT lead group will measure or “count” accidents/year in all countries for the worldwide total review.

2. Detailed accident data analysis for root causes requires extreme rigor and accuracy.

• The number of accidents, different accident definitions, different report qualities, different rules, etc. are in different countries. For year 2000 in subsequent charts, the number of accidents per country registry indicates the difficulty.

• Cannot dump accident reports of all countries into a single database for detailed root cause analyses. To do so, would invalidate any potential analysis results and damage analytical creditability.

The same JHSAT analysis process will be controlled by JHSAT lead group to be applied to different regional datasets.

JHSAT Needs to Support Regional Implementations

• Implementations are going to be regional thus accident intervention/justification must be driven from regional accident data.

• Accident data sets that are accurate/consistent are regional datasets.

• Still need a common worldwide analysis approach that can be applied to regional datasets (within their unique limits/regulations)

• Not all countries/organizations will participate.

Process developed, controlled, and taught by the JHSAT Lead Group.

JHSAT Teams• JHSAT Lead Group will train regional JHSAT Teams that want

to participate.

• Same analysis technique to be used for Lead Group and all Teams.

• Training: 3-4 members of a new JHSAT Team will participate in two JHSAT 4-day meetings and subsequent meetings related to analysis summarizing. Lead Group will continue to assist Teams as needed.

• JHSAT Team: Same format/worksheet/guidelines to analyze their regional data using their own accidents.

Team: Their purpose is to identify root causes and interventions of their accidents so can be passed to their region’s JHSIT Team for implementation in their region.

Rationale for JHSAT Approach1. Need large core dataset to allow accurate and

credible results2. Need rigid, rational, systematic analysis process3. Need means to use same analysis process worldwide4. Need to recognize countries variances including:

– Accident report quality and availability– Different operating rules– Different definition of accident – Different implementation issues– Limitation on ability to staff JHSAT

5. Need stakeholder participation in analysis or implementation would be unlikely.

NTSB Definition of Accident Used to Determine Consistent Worldwide Accidents Counting

• 14CFR830.2 definitions“Aircraft accident means an occurrence associated

with the operation of an aircraft which takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight and all such persons have disembarked, and in which any person suffers death or serious injury, or in which the aircraft receives substantial damage.”

Substantial Damage Definition (14CFR830.2)

“Substantial damage means damage or failure which adversely affects the structural strength, performance, or flight characteristics of the aircraft, and which would normally require major repair or replacement of the affected component. Engine failure or damage limited to an engine if only one engine fails or is damaged, bent fairings or cowling, dented skin, small punctured holes in the skin or fabric, ground damage to rotor or propeller blades, and damage to the landing gear wheels, tires, flaps, engine accessories, brakes, or wingtips are not considered “substantial damage” for the purpose of this part.”

JHSAT Lead Group Dataset Selection

• Dataset must be consistent to have accurate results.• Definition and process must be same throughout.• Operations under common regulatory rules

Basic JHSAT dataset: NTSB: US Registered Helicopters– Gyrocopters accidents removed– Amateur kit built helicopter accidents removed– Foreign registered helicopters removed (counted against their country of

registry)Accidents only per NTSB 830.2 definition.- Incidents removed. [IHST goal is accident reduction, not incidents]

Year 2000 Accident

Slice

Country of Registry2000

Accidents % AllUnited States (Civil) 195 36.6%

U.S. Military 109 20.5%Canada 46 8.6%UK: England, Scotland, Wales 27 5.1%France 14 2.6%Australia, Russia 13 ea. 4.9%South Africa 10 1.9%Brazil, Switzerland 8 ea. 3.0%Germany, Italy, New Zealand 6 ea. 3.4%Mexico, Indonesia 5 ea. 1.9%Argentina, Japan, Sweden 4 ea. 2.3%Chile, Colombia, Honduras, Malaysia, Thailand 3 ea. 2.8%Greenland, Guatemala, Philippines, Romania, South Korea, Taiwan, Venzuela 2 ea. 2.6%Algeria, Austria, China, Denmark, India, Iran, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Spain, Swaziland, Turkey, Turks & Caicos, UAE

1 ea. 3.9%

Worldwide Accidents 533 100.0%

Non-US Registered 2000 Accidents

Excel

US Military DefinitionsArmy Accident Classification

DISCLAIMER: Army accident classifications changed effective 1 Oct 2001 IAW DODI 6055.7. Statistics/data provided on this website reflect Army accident classification at the time the accident occurred.

Accident Class

FY 2002 Prior to FY 2002

A

Damage costs of $1,000,000 or more and/or destruction of an Army aircraft, missile or spacecraft and/or fatality or permanent total disability

Damage costs of $1,000,000 or more and/or destruction of an Army aircraft, missile or spacecraft and/or fatality or permanent total disability

B

Damage costs of $200,000 or more, but less than $1,000,000 and/or permanent partial disability and/or three or more people are hospitalized as inpatients

Damage costs of $200,000 or more, but less than $1,000,000 and/or permanent partial disability and/or five or more people are hospitalized as inpatients

C

Damage costs of $20,000 or more, but less than $200,000 and/or non-fatal injury resulting in loss of time from work beyond day/shift when injury occurred and/or non-fatal illness/disability causes loss of time from work

Damage costs of $10,000 or more, but less than $200,000 and/or non-fatal injury resulting in loss of time from work beyond day/shift when injury occurred and/or non-fatal illness/disability causes loss of time from work

Number of Worldwide Accidents1. Measurement accuracy requires the the item (accident)

counted to be the same throughout the measurement period. Thus same accident accident definition will be used through out JHSAT effort until 2017.

2. Bell’s worldwide mishap data tracks all helicopters (accidents & incidents) in all countries, uses the NTSB civil accident data definition.

3.Worldwide accidents/year chart used that same criteria as US Registered dataset in NTSB computer data.

4. Worldwide counting of accidents in the future to measure IHST reduction effectiveness will continue to use this same criteria.

Constant Accident Definition Used for Worldwide Count

• Different countries have different accident definitions.

• US Military use Mishap Classes• Some countries treat incidents as accidents

• Note: Regional JHSAT Teams will use their regional “accident” data as is. The accident definition cannot change during the study period. Results will be in percentages.

Measuring Annual Progress

• Accident count/year – achievable worldwide• Accurate flight hours exposure problem within country

and worldwide. Approach being developed and assistance request to be forthcoming .

With flight hours developed, provide for worldwide and by regional JHSAT/JHSIT.– Accident rate/100,000 hr– Fatal accident rate/100,000 hr– Individual risk of fatal injury/100,000 occupant hr

• Progress report to IHST each year.

Flight Hour Exposure Assistance

• Present government flight hour estimates of limited value/accuracy for IHST tasks.

• Bell approach in place for years for Bell civil turbine fleet worldwide and works.

• Information for Bell approach included within HAI MMIR info under FAA contract.

• Need JHSIT help with information gathering which can permit rates determination within a country registry, within a regional JHSAT/JHSAT teams, and worldwide.

• Both JHSAT & JHSIT need accurate flight hours to justify interventions and implementations.

• RECOMMEND JHSIT LEAD GROUP BE INITIATED.

Flight Hour Information Needed

• An hour data point has the following:– Model– Serial Number– Registry Number– Date– Total Cumulative Airframe Flight Hours

US Sources of Flight Hour Data

• MMIRs

• SDRs

• Accident Reports

• Anytime the FAA hears for an individual aircraft where the total airframe time is known. (Maint, registry, Certification of Airworthiness, etc.)

• Other sources?

Develop Accurate Flight Hours• Bell tracks individual aircraft by serial number for

flight hours• HAI starting to use same approach under FAA R&D

MMIR to accumulate individual hours.• Year start and end points calculated, flight hours

rolled up to major group segment.• Bell to develop flight hours for all helicopters

worldwide so country and worldwide accident rates can be used to monitor accident rate reductions.

206B Flight Hours - 25 YearsS/N 30XX Flight Hours

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Flight Hour Example from MMIR

EC135 S/N XX NXXXXX

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Needed from Each Country Regulatory Agency

For each civil registered helicopter, provide the following data point information for airframe flight hour points in time.

1. For a date in late 1999 or early 20002. For a date in late 20063. For the date that the helicopter entered the country registry.4. For the date that the helicopter left the country registry.

A data point contains the following minimum elements:- Model- Registry Number- A/C Serial Number- Date- Total Time of Airframe Flight Hours (rounded to nearest whole hour) on that date.

UK CAA has detail flight hours in Registry for sale.

ICAO starting similar with 4 countries.

Need to involve ICAO/CAA into IHST and provide flight hours inputs.

Need JHSIT started.

Worldwide Flight Hour Program Outputs

• Annual fleet flight hours to be accumulated into 3 groups within a country registry:– Single piston

– Single turbine

– Twin turbine

• Flight hours will be furnished back to regional JHSAT/JHSITs to be used in intervention strategies and fleet safety improvements.

• Worldwide accident rates to be determined annually.• Accident rates by country to be determined annually.

IHST Safety InitiativeAnalysis, Implementation and Metrics Management Structure

IHSTExecutive Committee

JHSATLead Group

JHSITLead Group

Regional JHSAT

Team A

Regional JHSAT

Team B

Regional JHSAT

Team C

Regional JHSAT

Team ...n

Regional JHSIT

Team A

Regional JHSIT

Team B

Regional JHSIT

Team C

Regional JHSIT

Team ...n

Regional Team Recommendations

JHSAT sends recommendations to JHSIT

Regional Team Implementation

Results

JHSAT/JHSIT

cross-talk

Need to maintain a strongcommunication/feedback loopbetween IHST – JHSAT - JHSIT

Region, Country, DoD? Region, Country, DoD?

Process development usingUS NTSB datarepresents 48% ofworldwide fleet

Measure Accident Reductions

Effectiveness

Measure Implementation

Effectiveness