Taking Stock: Building an Offshore Wind Research Agenda ... Musi… · • DOE ATD Projects – ME, OH, NJ State • CA/NY 50% RPS; HI 100% RPS • MA – 1600 MW Carve-out • MD/NJ

Taking Stock: Building an Offshore Wind Research Agenda

for the U.S. Industry

Walt Musial Manager Offshore Wind

National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2016 MRP Workshop December 15, 2016

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Wind Ship Concept Developed by

Professor William E. Heronemus

University of Massachusetts

Circa 1973

Pioneering Offshore Wind Energy

• Submarine Captain - USS Thresher • Naval architect • Professor of machine design • Published vision for offshore wind in early 1970’s • Led development of 26-kW UMass Wind Furnace • Died November 2, 2002

Bill Heronemus – “The Captain”

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Trip to First Offshore Wind Plant – Oct 1, 2016

Photo – Dennis Schroeder- NREL

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Giant Wind Farms - 6,000,000 kwh/yr is 25% of the energy from one Block Island turbine

January 1983 October 2016

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International

• 12 + GW Installed

• Costs declining rapidly

• First Commercial floating turbines 2017

National

• 2016 DOE/DOI National Offshore Wind Strategy

• 14 GW of OS wind energy lease areas

• DOE ATD Projects – ME, OH, NJ

State

• CA/NY 50% RPS; HI 100% RPS

• MA – 1600 MW Carve-out

• MD/NJ OREC

Local

• 2016 First Offshore Wind Project Commissioned in Rhode Island

Taking Stock

Gavin Smart, “Offshore Wind Cost Reduction: Recent and future trends in the UK and

Europe” UK Catapult, November 2016

Block Island Wind Farm Dennis Schroeder NREL 2016

6 DOE/NREL Internal Use Only - Do Not Cite or Distribute

National Strategy Documents

http://energy.gov/eere/wind/downloads/wind-vision-new-era-wind-power-united-states

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/09/f33/

National-Offshore-Wind-Strategy-report-09082016.pdf

March 2015 September 2016


Wind Vision Study Scenario Calls for 86 GW of OSW

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Offshore Wind Grows to 21% of Total U.S. Wind by 2050


Wind Vision 2050 Deployment Scenario

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The Value of Offshore Wind

Offshore Wind Attributes Support a Business Case to Enable Commercial Success in The United States

Source: 2016 DOE/DOI National Offshore Wind Strategy http://energy.gov/eere/wind/downloads/national-offshore-wind-strategy-facilitating-development-offshore-wind-industry

Abundant Resource

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• Assessment of offshore wind capacity (GW) and energy potential (TWh/year)

• All five regions have potential – and all five regions have need

• Solving technical challenges will open up significant opportunity on Pacific Coast and Great Lakes

• 11 active commercial leases in the Atlantic Ocean

• Development potential 14.6 GW at 3 MW/km2 (not including Call Areas and WEAs not auctioned)

• BOEM’s leases provide the exclusive rights to lessee

• Lessee’s provide a new voice to help represent the industry (Deepwater Wind, DONG, RES, US Wind, Vinyard Wind)

Lease Areas Provide Sufficient Near-term Siting Opportunity

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Demonstrated Market Opportunity • Assessed Load Growth

and Expected Retirements

between 2015 and 2050

• Found nearly 2,300 TWh of

opportunity space by 2050

Key Assumptions:

• Load Compound Annual Growth

Rate (CAGR) 0.66% per year across

coastal regions (2015-2050)

(Source: ReEDS/EIA)

• Retirements (assuming no re-

powering of generation assets) until

2050

• nuclear (-99%),

• coal (-47%),

• gas/petro (-23%), and

• renewables (-2%)

Announced retirements (EIA Form-860)

About 2,300 TWh of Opportunity Space by 2050

Opportunity for New Generation in Coastal States

*Excluding Hawaii and Alaska


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Offshore Wind’s Path to Achieve Competitive Cost

Modeling Approach:

1. Estimate LCOE using NREL Geo-spatial Offshore Wind Cost Model (Beiter et al 2016)

2. Geo-spatial cost variables include water depth, wind resource, substructure type, turbine size, distance to port, distance to cable interconnect, installation method, sea state.

3. Temporal cost variables estimate cost reduction potential through 2030

4. Vet results against literature and industry Data

5. Fixed and Floating Scenarios for Likely Sites Show LCOE Below 100 MWh by 2025 in Some sites

Beiter et al 2016 http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66579.pdf

• Geographic Variations Result in Wide Range of LCOE • Floating Wind Can Reach Fixed Bottom Costs by 2030 • Results Depend on Supply Chain Growth and Maturity

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Estimated LCOE in the Atlantic Coast Region

Large High Quality Resource - Many Sites reach $100/MWh by 2027 Beiter et al 2016 http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66579.pdf

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Net Value Analysis Shows Future Economic Potential W/O Incentives

Study found positive net value (economic potential) in many site by 2025 without direct economic incentives

LACE = Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy LCOE = Levelized Cost of Energy Net value = LACE - LCOE - If Net Value > 0, Site has Economic Potential

Beiter et al 2016 http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66579.pdf

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Value Adders Can Affect the Economic Viability of Offshore Wind

Beyond LCOE: Multiple factors that have not yet been quantified can increase the value of offshore wind to utilities and rate payers


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Region GW Technology Requirements

North Atlantic 28.38 Optimized floating wind, aggregated grid solutions

South Atlantic 18.92 Low wind speed turbines, hurricane survival designs

Great Lakes 12.90 Floating foundations designs for ice, ice resistant designs

Gulf of Mexico 8.60 Low wind speed turbines, hurricane survival designs

Pacific Coast 17.20 Deep optimized floating, high sea state O&M

86 GW Wind Vision Targets Require Regional Approach

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• Energy prediction methods - Lower uncertainty in power curve

• Metocean site characterization – data, sensors, methods, standards)- lower uncertainty in the design basis

• Enabling technologies for turbine scaling – materials, controls, manufacturing, integrated infrastructure, etc.

• Design tools enabling innovation and system optimization (single turbines and arrays)

• Geotech – soil/structure interactions, site-specific soil data

• Test facilities and methods for validation

• Standards (Floating, metocean, geotech, extreme events, etc.)

General Research Opportunities

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• Understand current technology

• Look for gaps and weaknesses that add cost/risk/uncertainty

• Look beyond what industry is currently doing

• Innovate!

• Work together – develop a national agenda

Research Strategy

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Offshore Wind Power 20 National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Photo Credit : Dennis Schroeder NREL