Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
TAMPA - ST PETERSBURGMULTIFAMILY
RENTAL TRENDSSUPPLY/DEMANDEMPLOYMENT ANALYTICS
JANUARY 2019
SUPPLY
RENTAL TRENDS
DEMAND
Employment Sector Current Share YOY Change
Leisure and Hospitality 11.7% 8,500 4.7%
Education and Health Services 15.5% 5,900 2.4%
Professional and Business Services 17.3% 5,400 2.0%
Mining, Logging and Construction 5.7% 4,500 5.2%
Manufacturing 5.5% 3,800 4.5%
Financial Activities 8.2% 2,700 2.1%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 19.8% 1,900 0.6%
Other Services 3.4% 1,500 2.9%
Information 1.6% -200 -0.8%
Government 11.4% -4,700 -2.5%
National RankingOut of 98 Markets 44Rent
Growth [-1] 49 EmploymentGrowth [-10] 32 Completions
[+11]
Inventory by Property Status# of Properties
930Completed
209,790 Units
32Under Construction
6,843 Units
27Planned
7,649 Units
122Prospective
26,403 Units
TAMPA - ST PETERSBURG MULTIFAMILY JANUARY 2019
1
HIGHEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS LOWEST OVERALL PERFORMING SUBMARKETS
Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change
Bartow $1,053 95% 15.6%
Dade City $1,033 91.2% 11.8%
University Square $1,078 93.8% 6.4%
Gandy/Ballast Point $1,386 94% 6.3%
Town N' Country $1,076 93.3% 6.1%
Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change
Rocky Creek $1,267 94.5% 1.0%
Downtown St Petersburg $1,353 95.8% 0.5%
Brooksville $696 96.5% -0.4%
Upper St Petersburg $1,074 95.5% -1.0%
Winter Haven $972 95.8% -1.5%
HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKET - BARTOW
SUBMARKETS YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH
Properties 4
Units 362
Average Rent/Unit $1,053
Effective YOY Chg 15.6%
RENTAL RATE CHANGE BY SUBMARKET JANUARY 2019
2
LIFESTYLE APARTMENTS - YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH RENTERS-BY-NECESSITY APARTMENTS - YEAR-OVER-YEAR RENT GROWTH
HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - LIFESTYLE HIGHEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - RBN
Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change
Gandy/Ballast Point $1,681 92.2% 6.5%
Palm Harbor/Tarpon Springs $1,289 95% 6.2%
Garver City $1,755 94.9% 5.9%
Clair-Mel City $1,388 94.6% 5.4%
Thontosassa $1,306 94.4% 5.2%
Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change
Bartow $842 96.6% 7.9%
Safety Harbor $1,166 95.7% 7.3%
Carrollwood Village $1,086 96% 7.2%
University Square $968 93.8% 7.0%
Plant City $853 93.6% 6.8%
LOWEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - LIFESTYLE LOWEST PERFORMING SUBMARKETS - RBN
Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change
Downtown St Petersburg $1,733 96.8% 0.1%
New Port Richey $1,100 96.8% -0.5%
Tampa Heights $1,837 98.1% -0.5%
Pinellas Park $1,421 95.2% -0.6%
Winter Haven $1,059 98.7% -4.2%
Submarket Rent Occupancy YOY Change
Rocky Creek $1,118 94.2% 1.5%
Downtown St Petersburg $986 94.8% 1.2%
Riverview/Valrico $1,109 94% 1.1%
Brooksville $696 96.5% -0.4%
Upper St Petersburg $999 95.1% -1.9%
GANDY/BALLAST POINT BARTOW
Lifestyle RBN Overall
Properties 5 10 15
Units 1,415 2,095 3,510
Avg Rent/Unit $1,681 $1,187 $1,386
Effective YOY Chg 6.5% 6.4% 6.3%
RBN Lifestyle Overall
Properties 3 1 4
Units 206 156 362
Avg Rent/Unit $842 $1,331 $1,053
Effective YOY Chg 7.9% 22.8% 15.6%
RENTAL RATE CHANGE BY SUBMARKET AND ASSET QUALITY JANUARY 2019
3
OVERALL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
PROJECTED COMPLETIONS AS % OF PRIOR INVENTORY - 12 MONTHS ENDING DECEMBER 2019Submarket Growth # Units
Downtown Tampa / Ybor City 33.7% 1,311
Brooksville 14.9% 94
Downtown St Petersburg 13.2% 1,163
Gandy/Ballast Point 12.9% 492
Davenport/Haines City 12.0% 326
Dunedin 9.2% 227
Land O'Lakes/Odessa 8.7% 348
Clearwater 7.9% 214
Gulfport/Lealman 7.2% 126
Hyde Park/Davis Island 6.5% 324
Rocky Creek 5.6% 505
+ 6 More Submarkets 805
Market Overall 2.7%5,935 Units
National RankingOut of 98 Markets
6,843 Units
30Lifestyle
6,070 Units
37Renters-by-Necessity
773 Units
29Overall [+2]
SUPPLY JANUARY 2019
TOP DEVELOPERS BY UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONLARGEST COMMUNITIES UNDER CONSTRUCTIONDeveloper # Units # Props
Related Group 1,164 3
Wheelock Street Capital 384 1
Bainbridge Companies 355 1
Arlington Properties 341 1
Sun Park Companny 326 1
ZOM 323 1
Altman Companies 314 1
RIDA Development 307 1
Gries Investment 300 1
Landmark Properties 214 1
Project Address # Units Developer
Manor Riverwalk 202 South Parker Street Tampa, FL 33606
400 Related Group
Newport 5001 Bridge Street Tampa, FL 33611
396 Related Group
Point at Starkey Ranch, The Gunn Hwy & State Road 54 Odessa, FL 33556
384 Wheelock Street Capital
Icon Central 801 Central Avenue St. Petersburg, FL 33701
368 Related Group
Bainbridge at Westshore Marina
5350 Bridge Street Tampa, FL 33611
355 Bainbridge Companies
4
LIFESTYLE DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY RENTERS-BY-NECESSITY DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
PROJECTED RBN COMPLETIONS AS % OF INVENTORYPROJECTED LIFESTYLE COMPLETIONS AS % OF INVENTORY
Submarket Growth # Units
Downtown Tampa / Ybor City 47.0% 1,108
Gandy/Ballast Point 46.4% 492
Gulfport/Lealman 37.7% 126
Downtown St Petersburg 33.6% 1,163
Clearwater 29.3% 134
Davenport/Haines City 25.2% 326
Dunedin 17.3% 227
Tampa Heights 14.1% 52
Land O'Lakes/Odessa 10.0% 348
Rocky Creek 9.5% 505
New Port Richey 8.9% 223
+ 2 More Submarkets 538
Market Overall 5.9%5,242 Units
Submarket Growth # Units
Brooksville 14.9% 94
Downtown Tampa / Ybor City 13.3% 203
Spring Hill 6.7% 92
Clearwater 3.5% 80
Largo 2.8% 92
Lakeland Highlands 1.9% 132
Market Overall 0.5%693 Units
SUPPLY JANUARY 2019
5
EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION BY INDUSTRY SECTOR
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TREND FOR TOTAL NON-FARM AND TWO LARGEST INDUSTRY SECTORS
EARNINGS GROWTH TREND VS NATIONAL
Employment National YOY Change 5-Year ChangeEmployment Sector Jobs % Share Rank Jobs Pct. Jobs Pct.
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 317K 19.8% 25 1.9K 0.6% 33.9K 12.0%
Professional and Business Services 277K 17.3% 23 5.4K 2.0% 49.2K 21.6%
Education and Health Services 248K 15.5% 26 5.9K 2.4% 30.6K 14.0%
Leisure and Hospitality 188K 11.7% 25 8.5K 4.7% 33.1K 21.4%
Government 183K 11.4% 32 -4.7K -2.5% -0.2K -0.1%
Financial Activities 131K 8.2% 19 2.7K 2.1% 18.2K 16.1%
Mining, Logging and Construction 91K 5.7% 23 4.5K 5.2% 21.0K 30.0%
Manufacturing 88K 5.5% 41 3.8K 4.5% 10.8K 14.0%
Other Services 54K 3.4% 28 1.5K 2.9% 4.9K 10.0%
Information 26K 1.6% 32 -0.2K -0.8% -1.2K -4.3%
Total Non-Farm 1603K 100.0% 25 29.3K 1.9% 200.3K 14.3%
EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS JANUARY 2019
6
Prior 12 Months
36Sale Price
$142,213Average Price/Unit
10Sale Velocity
77Properties Sold
13Sale Volume [-1]
$2,594MMTotal Sales
National RankingOut of 98 Markets
MOST ACTIVE SUBMARKETS BY TRANSACTION VOLUME
SALE TRENDS
MOST ACTIVE BUYERS BY # PROPERTIES PURCHASED MOST ACTIVE SELLERS BY # PROPERTIES SOLD
Lifestyle RBN
# Properties 31 46
Total $MM $1,551 $1,044
Avg $/Unit $187,272 $104,762
Company # Units $MM
Blue Roc Premier Properties 3 780 $81.7
NorthEnd Equities 2 1,382 $165.2
TH Real Estate 2 643 $143.0
Independence Realty Trust 2 624 $90.0
LCN Management 2 512 $53.9
White Oak Partners 2 455 $74.3
Centennial Holding Company 2 437 $72.6
Arena Capital Holdings 2 291 $20.5
Company # Units $MM
Harbor Group International 4 1,273 $136.0
Mercury Investments 4 1,232 $169.7
Pollack Shores 3 1,006 $206.9
Equity Management Partners 3 539 $43.5
Axonic Properties 2 696 $73.2
IMT Capital 2 670 $116.9
Greider, David K. 2 284 $32.7
Insula Properties 2 272 $30.7
Submarket # Units $MM
Westchase 8 2,686 $503.3
Riverview/Valrico 12 2,886 $438.8
Rocky Creek 8 2,802 $412.3
Downtown St Petersburg 6 1,482 $386.5
Lakeland Highlands 12 2,882 $357.2
Brandon/Seffner 4 2,332 $281.8
Safety Harbor 4 1,524 $226.0
Gandy/Ballast Point 4 1,128 $206.0
University of South Florida 8 964 $204.8
Sunset Park/Bayside 2 1,378 $193.0
+ 25 More Submarkets 86 16,420 $1,978.8
Total 154 36,484 $5,188.5
$123,000,000982 UnitsBuyer: NorthEnd Equities
Sale Date: 01/22/2019
Reserve at Brandon
HIGHEST PRICED PREV. 3 MONTHS
TRANSACTION ACTIVITY JANUARY 2019
7
COVERAGE
Yardi® Matrix reports on multi-family properties of 50+ units in size.
This report for the Tampa - St Petersburg metro area covers Counties: Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and Polk
Rental rate coverage is for Market Rate properties only. Fully Affordable properties are not included in our rental surveys and are not reported in rental rate averages.
GENERAL DEFINITIONS
Asset Class – refers to a generalized category of properties grouped by their Yardi® Matrix improvements rating
Lifestyle Asset Class – a grouping of all of the highest rated market rate properties A+, A, A- and B+
Renters-by-Necessity (RBN) Asset Class – a grouping of all of the lowest rated properties B, B-, C+, C, C- and D
Year-over-Year Change – percentage growth from last year, for several months or quarters in a time-series. This analysis will highlight an overall direction of movement for a metro.
An upward slope means an accelerating growth. A downward slope means a slowing growth. Above the line (zero) for increases, below the line for loss.
Rankings – this metro is ranked nationally among other Yardi Matrix reported metros based on a single measure. For details on any specific ranking, see section descriptions below
COMMONLY USED CALCULATIONS
DATA SOURCES
Rental Rates – are collected by Yardi® Matrix phone surveyors three times annually for 95%+ of property and unit configurations. Additionally, a representative sample of the market (between 10% and 20%) are surveyed monthly.
Occupancy Rates – are derived from U.S. Postal Service data and Yardi® Matrix phone surveys
Development Activity – information is tracked by Yardi® Matrix researchers. Construction projects are discovered through various publications and local government sources. Projects are tracked on a monthly basis. Completion dates and lease-up information are confirmed by phone calls to properties under construction.
Employment – data is sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Reported employment is generally two months behind the current date for this report.
Transaction Activity – information is tracked by Yardi® Matrix researchers. Sales are discovered through various publications and local government sources, and updates are made continuously.
Rent Growth Ranking – based on rent growth over the past year, current month.
Employment Growth Ranking – based on employment growth over the past year, latest employment month.
Completions Ranking – based on inventory growth over the past year, current month.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Calculations – total employment size (jobs) is expressed as a sum of employment in areas overlapping the reported market: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS
Industry Sectors – are defined by the NAICS Supersector designations. For more information visit: http://www.bls.gov/sae/saesuper.htm
Sector National Ranking – is based on the absolute size of the industry sector within this metro, when compared to the same industry in other metro areas nationally.
Earnings weekly vs hourly – differentiates hourly wage workers, from weekly salaried workers.
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
Prospective Properties – announced construction projects, with no specific documents or government filings
Planned Properties – are in the planning stages of construction, with documents having been filed with the county or city
Under Construction Properties – have received permits for construction and broken ground.
Rankings – are based on the number of units currently under construction: Overall, Lifestyle and Renters-by-Necessity Asset Classifications
Projected Completions – Projected completions reported by Yardi® Matrix are limited to a year out and are based on properties currently under construction and their expected completion date.
Projected Completions as a % of Prior Inventory – This forward-looking metric uses projected unit completions to calculate a relative growth over the next year for a particular area. Submarkets with a total share of market inventory below 1% are assigned an N/A value, to avoid over-stating their significance in rankings and color-coded map displays.
Construction and Completion Counts – are reported based on property status as of the start of the month.
TRANSACTION ACTIVITY
Price – is expressed as Price/Unit as a standard measure. This is also used for national ranking
Velocity – is measured by the number of properties sold per year. This is also used for national ranking
Volume – measures the total amount of money spent in multi-family sale transactions in the prior year, expressed as millions of U.S. Dollars ($MM). This is also used for national ranking
METHODS AND DEFINITIONS JANUARY 2019
8