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SUDAN MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE

September 2013

This Monthly Market Update (MMU) is designed to better inform decision makers and analysts in Sudan of current prices and market trends. The data sources for the 17 Northern States of Sudan are from the available data collection system of the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation /Ministry of Animal Resources, Range and Fisheries (MoAI/MARF). The Sudan MMU was started by the Sudan Institutional Capacity Program: Food Security Information for Action (SIFSIA), which released the first 51 issues of the MMU until the project was discontinued. FSTS & FEWS NET are continuing this effort.

FAMIS (Food & Agriculture Market Information System - Sudan) collects crop, livestock, and horticultural and animal products prices from major markets of the Sudan on a weekly basis. Data collection is done according to a specific methodology to ensure the accuracy and objectivity of the published information. FAMIS is a web based – SMS platform that operates through www.farmers.sd, the main source of price data for the Monthly Market Update.

SUMMARY:

The uncertainty associated with this year summer season is being reflected in a mixed trend of main stable food items prices

The current sorghum wholesale prices are about 70 percent higher than the five-year average and 8 percent higher than August 2012. Millet and wheat prices are 60 and 75 percent higher than their five-year average.

The domestic prices of sorghum were higher than the export parity price indicating in competiveness of local production (figure 2) this situation is expected to continue at least till the new harvest in November.

The National inflation is 22 percent higher compared to August 2013. Rural inflation is becoming slightly below the national and urban inflation due to availability of good pasture and green harvest in limited areas.

The terms of trade between livestock owners and crop producers is maintained staple for two months now. The future trend will be dedicated by the progress of the summer crops till the mid of October

The late start of the effective rains to late July and early August besides receiving heavy rains in one week time during early August are considered as limiting factors that might lead to substantial reduction of this season harvest.

Cereal prices are still expected to remain at high levels even during the harvest time due to the limited supply anticipated. The social safety nets and the responsible government institution should closely monitor the situation in order to take the appropriate timely interventions that will ensure poor households are getting their food requirements

Figure 1: Real Wholesale Prices for Sorghum in Khartoum (Aug. 2009 – Aug. 2013)

Figure 2: Comparison of Export Parity (XPP) and Domestic Prices for

Sorghum from Al Qadarif (Aug. 2012 – Aug. 2013)

Source: The Food & Agriculture Market Information System (www.farmers.sd) and

the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). International prices are from USDA and International Grain Council, www.fao.org/es/esc/prices/

Seasonal Calendar and Inflation rates 2

Nominal and real wholesale prices of cereal 3

Terms of trade and sheep prices 3

Market analysis 4

CONTENT:

Sept. 2013 Bulletin # 68

SUDAN MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE

Food Security Technical Secretariat (FSTS) The Food Security Technical Secretariat was established in late 2009. Several

government institutions are represented in the FSTS to ensure maximum

coordination to achieve food security. FSTS supports various food security

information systems and provides policy briefs as well as monitoring of the impact

of applied polices on food security. FSTS also conducts analysis of the food security

situation at the locality level.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET ( Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for food insecurity, FEWS

NET provides early warning and evidence-based reporting on more than 30 of the

world’s most food-insecure countries. In partnership with international and

national agencies, FEWS NET collects and analyzes data on such factors as weather,

climate, agriculture production, prices, trade, and livelihoods. Reports are available

at www.fews.net.

(FAMIS)

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Food Security Technical Secretariat – SUDAN

(FEWS NET) (FSTS) المبكر لدرء مخاطر المجاعةار ذاإلنشبكة أنظمة

السودان -الغذائى األمانة الفنية لألمن

FOOD SECURITY TECHNICAL SECRETARIAT

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SUDAN MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE

September 2013

Figure 3: Real Wholesale Prices of Wheat in Khartoum ( Aug. 2009 – Aug. 2013)

Figure 4: Seasonal Calendar

Source : FEWS NET

Figure 5: Relative Price Increases – Food Inflation / Non-food Inflation in Sudan (Aug. 2012 – Aug. 2013).

Figure 6: Monthly Inflation Rates in Sudan (Base 2007 = 100) (Aug. 2012 – Aug. 2013)

Source: The Central Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Indices and Inflation Rates, Sudan and Khartoum

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SUDAN MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE

September 2013

Figure 7: Nominal Wholesale Prices of Staple Cereals in Khartoum, (Aug. 2012 – Aug. 2013).

Figure 8: Real average and Current Wholesale Prices of Sorghum (Feterita) in Khartoum (Aug. 2012 – Aug. 2013).

Figure 9: Nominal Wholesale Sorghum (Feterita) Prices for Selected Markets (Aug. 2012 – Aug. 2013).

Figure 10: Baladi Sheep Prices in Elsalam Livestock Market – Omdurman (Aug. 2012 – Aug. 2013).

Figure 11: Terms of Trade for Baladi Sheep in Elsalam Livestock Market – Omdurman (Aug. 2012 – Aug. 2013).

Source: www.farmers.sd

Notes: (1) Prices are expressed in Sudanese Pounds per 90 kg bag for cereals and per animal for sheep. (2) One bag = 90 kg; 1 US $ ≈ 5.5 Sudanese Pounds (SDG). (3) Terms of Trade (TOT) is expressed in quantity of sorghum per head of sheep.

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SUDAN MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE

September 2013

MARKET ANALYSIS:

A mixed trend featured the cereal prices in Sudan during August 2013. The price trend variation is attributed to the late starting of current agricultural season and the inadequate rainfall distribution during August that led to variation in crop performance.

El Geneina (West Darfur) and Ad Damazine (Blue Nile) recorded the highest wholesale sorghum price increase between July and August with 11 and 9 percents respectively. ED Deain (East Drafour) also recorded 9 percent increase in this period due to the severe tribal conflict in the area. The prospects of the new harvest led to obvious decrease in Nyala where sorghum prices dropped by 7 percent. Gadarif and Kadogli (South Kordofan) showed a slight decrease of one to two percents in the reporting period (figure 9).

The current sorghum wholesale prices are about 70 percent higher than their five-year average and 8 percent higher than August 2012.

Between July and August, wholesale millet prices tended to increase in most of the monitored markets as the carried over stock is almost already consumed; the prices were higher by 11, 9 and 8 percents in Ad Damazine, Khartoum and Elobied respectively. Nyala and Fashir (South and North Darfour) and Kassala were the only markets that recorded trivial price reduction confined to 4 percent only. The millet five-year average and the current millet price is about 60 percent higher .

August average wheat wholesale prices were higher by 22, 12 and 6 percents in Nyala, Khartoum and Elobied (North Kordofan) respectively. Fashir and El Geneina recorded 16 and 6 percents reduction in wheat wholesale average prices between July and August. The expected declaration of new government polices are intending to lift the subsidies from wheat and fuel may be among the factors triggering the recent upward shift of the current wheat prices which are about 75 percent higher than their last five-years average and 22 percent higher than August 2012 prices.

The domestic prices of sorghum were higher than the export parity price indicating in competiveness of local production (figure 2) this situation is expected to continue at least till the new harvest in November.

Figure 5 is telling that rural inflation will start it’s normal trend during the rainy season when the rural households start to rely on their own production and thus it is below both the urban and national inflation (23.6 and 22.9 respectively).

The progress of the rainy season is providing adequate pasture and water for the national herd and hence the livestock prices were generally staple in August and expected to continue in the same trend for the coming months as long as the animal health condition is maintained. The terms of trade between cereals and livestock were also staple between July and August. The indicators and the actual attained cereal harvest will determine the direction of the TOT (figure 11) which will be in the benefit of livestock owners if the crops in certain potential areas in south east Sudan didn’t receive enough rains to meet their water requirements during September.

Cereal prices are still expected to remain at high levels even during the harvest time due to the limited supply anticipated. The social safety nets and the responsible government institution should closely monitor the situation in order to take the appropriate timely interventions that will ensure poor households are getting their food requirements