Tcqt7-Can Can Bp

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Ti chnh quc t

(International Finance)

V. Cn cn thanh ton(Balance of Payment-BP)


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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng2

Cn cn thanh ton

1. Khi nim2. C cu v cc cn cn b phn

3. Nguyn tc hch ton kp ca BP4. Thng d v thm ht BP5. Hiu ng tuyn J6. Cc bin s trong nn kinh t m


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1. Khi nim Nhng ngi khng hi 2 iu kin trn u tr

thnh ngi khng c tr Mt s lu xc nh ngi c tr v khng c tr

trong cn cn thanh ton: Quc tch v ngi c tr Cc t chc quc t nh IMF, WB, ADB vv... l ngi khng c

tr i vi mi quc gia, ngay c vi quc gia m t chc ngtr s.

Cc i s qun, cn c qun s nc ngoi, cc lu hc sinh,

khch du lch vv... u l ngi khng c tr vi nc n vl ngi c tr i vi nc i. Cc cty a quc gia s l ngi c tr ng thi ti nhiu quc

gia (chi nhnh nc no th ngi c tr nc )


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1. Khi nim Nguyn tc a 1 giao dch kinh t vo BP

- Giao dch phi tin hnh gia ngi c tr v ngikhng c tr.

- Giao dch ngi c tr-c tr; khng c tr-khng ctr khng c a vo BP. ng tin s dng trong ghi chp BP: Cc nc pht trin bng ni t Cc nc ang pht trin USD IMF s dng SDR Ngoi ra c th cc ng tin khc nhau v theo t gi

cho


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2. C cu v cc cn cn b phn

a. Cn cn vng lai (current account balance-AC)b. Cn cn vn (capital balance)c. Li v sai st (net error omission OM)d. Cn cn tng th (overall balance OB)e. Cn cn b p chnh thc (official financing

balance-OFB)


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a. Cn cn vng lai c im: Phn nh vic chuyn giao quyn s hu gia

ngi c tr v ngi khng c tr Bao gm: Cn cn thng mi Trade balance Balance on goods

(visible): xut nhp khu hng ha Cn cn dch v - Service balance Gm: vn ti, du lch, ngn hng, bo him, bu chnh vin thng,

hng khng, thng tin, xy dng v cc dch v khc Cn cn thu nhp Income balance Thu nhp ngi lao ng v thu nhp v u t

Cn cn chuyn giao vng lai mt chiu unrequitedtransfersCc khon vin tr khng hon li, qu tng, qu biu v cc khonchuyn giao khc bng tin v hin vt vi mc ch tiu dng

AC = TB + SB + IB + Tr = VB + InVS


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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng 8

Current account balance

Current account balance (percent of GDP at current market price)

-13

-11

-9-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Vietnam China Thailand South Korea


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Trade balance

Trade balance (percent of GDP at current market price)

-15

-13

-11

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Vietnam China Thailand South Korea Source: ADB


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Balance of service, income and others,Vietnam

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Million

USD


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a. Cn cn vng lai

Nhng nhn t nh hng: T gi hi oi Tc ng n cn cn thng mi v dch v Ph thuc vo co dn ca t gi vi s lng hng ha xut nhp

khu Lm pht Ga c hng ha th gii Thu nhp ca ngi khng c tr

Hng ro thu quan v phi thu quan


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Trade balance and exchange rate Vietnam

-14000

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

MillionUSD

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

USD/VND

Trade balance

Exchange rate


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Trade balance and exchange rate China

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

MillionUSD

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

USD/CNY

Trade balance

Exchange rate


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b. Cn cn vn c im: Phn nh s chuyn giao quyn s dng v ti sn gia

ngi c tr v ngi khng c tr Bao gm: Cn cn vn di hn u t trc tip: thng trn 30% vn gp u t gin tip: tri phiu cty, chnh ph, c phiu nhng cha kim

sot c cty nc ngoi Tn dng di hn thuc khu vc nh nc (ODA) v thng mi thuc

khu vc t nhn Cn cn vn ngn hn Tn dng thng mi ngn hn Mua bn cc giy t c gi Kinh doanh ngoi hi Chuyn giao vn mt chiu: Cc khon vin tr khng hon li vi mc ch u t, xa n


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Cn cn c bn (basis balance)

Cn cn c bn = cn cn vng lai + cn cn vn di hn


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c. Li v sai st (OM)

Phn nh nhng sai st v li trong thng k chobng cn bng cn cn thanh ton.


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Net error and omissions,Vietnam

-14000

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Million

USD


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d. Cn cn tng th

OB = CA + K + OM


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Overall balanceOverall balance (percent of GDP at current market price)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

46

8

10

12

14

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Vietnam China Thailand South Korea Source: ADB


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Cn cn b p chnh thc (OFB)

Bao gm: Thay i d tr ngoi hi quc gia (dR) Tn dng vi IMF v cc NHTW khc (loans L) Thay i d tr ngoi hi ca NHTW khc bng

ng tin ca quc gia lp cn cn thanh ton()

OFB = dR + L +


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Tm tt cn cn thanh ton

(1) CA = TB + S + I + Tr(2) K = Kl + Ks + Ktr(3) BB = CA + Kl

(4) OB = CA + K + OM(5) OFB = dR + L + (6) OB + OFB = 0


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Total reserves of Vietnam (in USD)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Million

USD


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3. Nguyn tc bt ton kp

Khi nim:BP c hch ton tho bt ton kp, nghal mi giao dch gia ngi c tr v ngi khng c tru c ghi bng hai bt ton c gi tr tuyt i bngnhau nhng ngc du.

Cu trc BP Bn c (credit): phn nh cc khon thu (receipt) Bn n (debit): phn nh cc khon chi (expenditure)

Qui tc Mi khon thu (+) u phi chi (-) Mi khon chi (-) u phi c thu (+)


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3. Nguyn tc bt ton kp Ghi c (+) mi khon thu phn nh lung tin vo:- Cc khon thu t ngi khng c tr (XK HH v DV, thu

li sut, c tc, li nhun ...)- Cc lung vn chy vo (i vay, bn ti sn nc

ngoi...)- Cc giao dich lm gim gi tr ti sn ca nc mnh

nc ngoi- Cc giao dch lm tng ti sn ca nc ngoi nc

mnh


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3. Nguyn tc bt ton kp Ghi n (-) mi khon chi phn nh lung tin ra:- Cc khon chi cho ngi khng c tr (NK HH v DV, tr

li sut, tr li nhun...)- Cc lung vn chy ra (cho vay, mua ti sn nc

ngoi...)- Cc giao dich lm tng gi tr ti sn ca nc mnh

nc ngoi- Cc giao dch lm gim ti sn ca nc ngoi nc

mnh


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4. Thng d hay thm ht BP

Lu : Khi ni n thng d hay thm ht cn cnthanh ton, ngi ta mun ni n thng d hay thmht ca mt hay mt nhm cc cn cn b phn nhtnh trong BP

V sao?


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Thng d hay thm ht cn cn thng mi Cn cn thng mi thng d (xut siu): X>M Cn cn thng mi thm ht (nhp siu): X< M Cn cn thng mi cn bng: X=M L b phn quan trng v c bn ca cn cn vng lai Phn nh xu hng ca cn cn vng lai Tc ng mnh n t gi


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Current Account and trade balance, Vietnam

percent of GDP at current market price

-15

-13

-11

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

current account trade balance


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Thng d hay thm ht cn cn tng th Mi thm ht trong cn cn tng th phi c ti tr

bng:- Gim d tr ngoi hi- Vay IMF v cc NHTW khc- Tng ti sn n ti cc NHTW nc ngoi Ch thch hp vi nc p dng ch t gi c nh Khng ph hp vi nhng nc p dng ch t gi

th ni, v sao?


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5. Hiu ng tuyn J (J curve effect)

(1) Ph gi tin t c ci thin c cn cnthng mi?

(2) Nng gi tin t c lm gim thng d cn cn

thng mi?(3) ph gi v nng gi thnh cng th cn

phi lm g?


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5. Hiu ng tuyn J (J curve effect)

Cch tip cn ca Marshall-Lerner Kt lun Trong ngn hn thay i t gi tc n gi c hng ha Trong di hn thay i t gi tc ng n thay i sn

lng xut nhp khu Trong ngn hn cn cn thng mi tc ng ngc

chiu vi s mong mun, nhng trong di hn c th tcng theo mong mun (ty thuc vo co dn)


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TS Nguyn Phc Hin i hc Ngoi thng33

6. Cc bin s trong nn kinh t m

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